Authored by Major Danny Sjursen via AntiWar.com,
The Non-Options: 4 Wars the Military Prepares for But Shouldn’t Fight: Volume II
There’s nothing military men like more than obsessively training for wars they will never have to fight. The trick is not to stumble into a conflict that no one will win.
Let’s everyone take a breath. Yes, China presents a potential threat to American interests in the economic, cyber, and naval realms. The U.S. must maintain a credible defensive and expeditionary posture and be prepared for a worst case scenario. What we don’t need is to blunder into a regional, or, worse still, all-out war with the Chinese dragon. Not now, probably not ever.
And yet, in Washington today, and within the Trump administration in particular, alarmism seems the name of the game. This is risky, and, ultimately, dangerous. In his 2018 National Defense Strategy, Secretary of Defense Mattis, a known hawk, refers to Russia and China as "revisionist powers," and announces that the US military must now pivot to "great power" competition. Look, I’m all for extricating our overstretched armed forces from the Middle East and de-escalating the never-ending, counterproductive "war on terror." What doesn’t make sense, is the reflexive assumption that (maybe) dialing down one war, must translate into ramping up for other, more perilous, wars with nuclear-armed powerhouses like Russia or China.
The usual laundry list of Chinese threats is well-known: China is (how dare they!) building a sizable blue-water navy and (gasp!) patrolling around sandy islands in the South China Sea. They conduct cyber-attacks (so do we) and steal intellectual property. They are planning a new “Silk Road” to integrate much of Eurasia into a China-centric trade and transportation system. No doubt, some of those items may be cause for measured concern, but none of the listed "infractions" warrants war!
Bottom line: China, like Russia, possesses neither the capacity nor intent for global domination or the subjugation of the United States. Period.
Let’s start with the capacity problem. China has a growing military. That is to be expected of one of the world’s top-two economies and a nation with more than 1 billion people. Don’t act so surprised. Still, China spends only one thirdas much as the US on defense. It has one leaky, outdated former Russian aircraft carrier and is building a few more. The US has about a dozen and our local Asian partners (India, Japan, Australia, and South Korea) – count another nine between them.
China has 14 foreign powers – some hostile – on its land borders. One of those is Russia, with whom the Chinese have a long history of border disputes. The last thing the US should want to do is drive those two unnatural allies into each other’s arms with overly bellicose rhetoric and military posturing. Another Chinese neighbor is India, which is strengthening its own military and also has 1+ billion citizens (and a much higher birthrate than China).
Then there’s the intent issue. China is not after global domination and no longer possesses a true internationalist communist ideology. It wants regionalsuperiority and a measure of global respect to make up for its perceived (and actual) embarrassment by European and American imperialists in the 19th and early 20th centuries. It wants a powerful trade block across Eurasia and a measure of control of its own "lake" – the South China Sea. Is that so unreasonable? The US has outright supremacy in its bordering seas, such as the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico and Eastern Pacific. The US military has even sponsored coups and conducted outright invasions of nearby islands that didn’t sufficiently march to Washington’s tune.
Switch places with Chinese leader Xi Jinping for a moment. How would Trump(or Obama) respond, if the Chinese insisted they had a right to supremacy in the Caribbean? My guess: outright war.
Finally, there are the reasons not to fight, the reasons why a war would be catastrophic for both sides. China is huge, both in landmass and population(of 1.3 billion!). We’ve all heard the (accurate) trope warning against starting a land war in Asia. There’s good reason for that. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is huge and is capable of bogging the relatively small, all-volunteer US military in a nightmarish quagmire.
Nor could the US count on an easy projection of its naval and airpower into, say, the Taiwan Strait. China (and other competitors) have invested heavily in A2AD (Anti-Access, Area-Denial) systems that could thwart such attempts, inflict heavy casualties, or, at the least, maintain standoff. This would force the US military to preemptively escalate with attacks on Chinese homeland defenses. There is very little opportunity, therefore, to wage a limited war. Any fight with China will force the US"all-in" as a matter of course.
Furthermore, China’s booming and growing economy is both its strength and a sort of financial doomsday device. The US, European, and Chinese economies are by now inextricably linked. Hot war means trade war; and that would likely result in a cataclysmic global financial collapse. The US military is the most well-funded and equipped force on earth. Still, the backbone and foundation of that military rests with the power of the US economy. A new crash and potential depression would permanently damage our economy (along with China’s, no doubt).
Most importantly, China maintains an arsenal of at least 250 nuclear warheads. That’s a drop in the bucket compared to America’s 6000+ weapons, but more than enough to deter any serious invasion. Here’s the trick: never to fight a nuclear power, so long as it can be avoided. Anything else is insanity – ever heard of Nuclear Winter? Yea, it’s a real thing! The lesson: tread lightly, be cautious, and avoid unnecessary brinksmanship. That’s called statesmanship, something the US seems to have forgotten about these last 17 years.
Truth is, most of this threat inflation is really about cooking the books to justify gross overspending and a profits bonanza for the military-industrial complex. That’s a concern in itself, because a $700+ billion military budget is unsustainable, requiring either tough cuts to domestic programs, increased taxes, a ballooning national debt – or all of the above.
The real danger, though, is military brinksmanship. And the inescapable fog of war. It’s not impossible to imagine a dispute in the distant South China Sea (7000 miles from California) resulting in combat and casualties between the US and China. This could quickly escalate out of control. And remember, we both have loads of nuclear weapons!
It’s time to realistically weigh US interests, display some humility and craft a sober strategy for the Pacific. The sea coast of China cannot forever remain an "American lake." We would never accept a foreign power in the Caribbean and can’t expect China – with over a billion citizens and a growing economy – to cede their local waters to a distant American Navy in perpetuity.
The US must appeal to local Asian partners based on our (ostensible) shared values of open trade and open society – a challenge to the more authoritarian Chinese value system. After all, soft power goes a long way, especially when all-out war is a non-option! That, of course, will require more consistency from the US We’ll have to walk the walk on our values and quit backing our "partners’" military campaigns – Saudis in Yemen, Israel in Gaza, etc. – when they often add up to veritable war crimes.
Remember, we owe the Chinese a lot of money. That gives them leverage, but it also gives us leverage. They want to be paid back and Beijing knows it needs the American market for its goods. Besides, our economies are actually highly intertwined. XI doesn’t want a major war with the US He is playing the long game, a chess match as compared to our bumbling checkers!
If there is a war in the Pacific with nuclear-armed China it will most likely not be of XI’s doing. Only American hubris can lead to what would inevitably be a disastrous war.
Given our recent track record – an Icarus-syndrome par excellence – that seems frighteningly likely.
* * *
Read The Non-Options: 4 Wars the Military Prepares for But Shouldn’t Fight, Volume I
Danny Sjursen is a US Army officer and regular contributor to Antiwar.com. He served combat tours with reconnaissance units in Iraq and Afghanistan and later taught history at his alma mater, West Point. He is the author of a memoir and critical analysis of the Iraq War, Ghostriders of Baghdad: Soldiers, Civilians, and the Myth of the Surge. Follow him on Twitter at @SkepticalVet.
Comments
U.S. will lose..
They have a billion citizens who will fight to death if ordered to do so, we have 300 million pussies (minus the 3%)
Yes. If we "poke the dragon", we'll "drag on" forever in a winless struggle.
In reply to U.S. will lose if they… by Stu Elsample
JS, the whole world is GENTILE, incl. all the converted Jews of today.
Only the Hebrews of Old were not considered so. They're ALL DEAD.
Hence, everyone today is a Gentile or a non-Hebrew.
Upd- JS's original comment containing the word Gentile has since been edited.
In reply to Yes. If we "poke the dragon… by J S Bach
For the Gentile Jews I prefer the term Fake Hebrews. Because that's what they're doing in stealing Palestine:
"Look at us, we're (pretend) Hebrews returning home, yadi-yadi-yada."
"Show me the 12 Tribes!" I said.
"Say whaaaaat?" they answered.
"Where are they?" I insisted.
"They're... ugh... LOST."
"Is that your 'dog ate my homework' excuse?"
"Shhh! Don't be such a party pooper. Don't you see we're milking the world by pretending to be what we're not. Here's a few bucks for you to shut up!"
In reply to yep by revolla
russia might have putin as their eternal president
china's communist party will likely be in control for a while
calling the US "stumbling checkers" is a mistake - don't turn a blind eye to the Pentagon, generals, MIC if you will - they're playing the long game for the US. Not that I agree with how they're running the show with constant wars, but just wanted to point that out. Trump talked about good relations with russia, but those ships with US tanks and support vehicles poured into Europe at the start of his presidency regardless of his campaign promises.
In reply to For the Gentile Jews, I… by bananas
The painful truth is no one wins in any war other than banksters and MIC. Unfortunately, when they control top people like Trump, they can wage wars without congressional approval or oversight. No one can stop them or hold them accountable.
In reply to x by Joe Trader
The Chinese military has been preparing for, and desiring war with the US for the past 30 years. The civilian leadership has been opposed, but that opposition is waning. This match is on, no one is stopping it. As to the perpetrators driving it, it will hardly matter who they were. I say were. This war will be short and deadly. After, there will be little to write about in the history books...
In reply to The painful truth is no one… by beemasters
" alarmism seems the name of the game."
That is the game totally. They don't ever want to win a war. Then it might end. The game is constant tension and low threats and encounters to keep the game going. This is the game. The mainstream media and the ALT media are flooded with conflicting information to keep the majority of the population confused and the currency is constantly being debased so the people are constantly struggling to stay afloat. Its collective militarism. Is that a new phrase?
In reply to The painful truth is no one… by beemasters
the US presidency, congress and the senate are nothing more than middle management and their main source of power is presiding over domestic control and issues. The MIC and the financial institutions rule the top of the pyramid of power and tell the prez, congress and senate what to do or just do it without telling them especially focused on international politics and control---ie war.. This has been going on for decades upon decades. Anyone who thinks they have a "choice" when they vote is sorely misinformed.
In reply to The painful truth is no one… by beemasters
Article is horseshit.
Nearly everything is made in China, even foods.
Kabuki...
In reply to Yes. If we "poke the dragon… by J S Bach
Won't happen.
It is written in stone.....reduce the population to about 500 million
In reply to Yes. If we "poke the dragon… by J S Bach
Come the fuck on!
No Chuck Norris vs Bruce Lee video yet?
If you want to see the future, look to the past.........https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wtZNvK3fTlM
Way of the Dragon, baby.
In reply to Yes. If we "poke the dragon… by J S Bach
Are you saying the 104th Fighting Skinny Jeans Brigades won't die to the last {put indeterminate gender here}?
In reply to U.S. will lose if they… by Stu Elsample
China Russia, Iran, their people have high moral. The west? Just take a look, degeneracy everywhere.
Take a look at the military personell, in the east, straight up killers. In the west. demasculated men filled with estrogen and feminists.
It's a joke.
In reply to U.S. will lose if they… by Stu Elsample
.
In reply to China Russia, Iran, their… by Labworks
Maybe Seattle soy-boys in the general population, but we still have a fair share of jacked up military personnel.
PS - are the US Special Forces splitting Syria in half while drinking lattes? I doubt it.
In reply to China Russia, Iran, their… by Labworks
chinese are strong, the us wouldnt stand half a chance.
In reply to U.S. will lose if they… by Stu Elsample
I wish I had a dollar for every Major who has an opinion on policy. I could retire right now.
In reply to U.S. will lose if they… by Stu Elsample
Seriously? Are you thinking China is going to invade the United States? That's beyond absurd to delusional.
In reply to U.S. will lose if they… by Stu Elsample
We poke them, they poke us. It's fine. Nobody playing at this level is stupid.
What went wrong, tmosley? Traumatic experience?
In reply to We poke them, they poke us… by tmosley
https://www.pscp.tv/w/1YqGoLRgQMvJv
Watch the whole thing.
In reply to What went wrong, tmosley?… by Labworks
the guy is a poor idiot. I could not focus to listen for 5 seconds.
In reply to https://www.pscp.tv/w… by tmosley
I think that is more of an indication of your mental state than his.
In reply to the guy is a poor idiot. I… by oncemore1
I agree with you, BitMosley f/k/a SilverMosley. It's a no duh that there will be no US war with China in our lifetimes (unless you are MUCH younger than me). Not going to happen. Same with NK, which would mean with war with China and/or Russia.
You're wrong on Iran. Isreal is going to escalate. Will it be full out war? Probably not, but regime change is coming to Iran and we'll see how that plays out.
In reply to We poke them, they poke us… by tmosley
>You're wrong on Iran
If there is no US war with Iran by the end of 2018, you have to praise the God Emperor in public.
In reply to I agree with you. It's a no… by LetThemEatRand
So what's the best case scenario? He bullies them to accept a BIS ran central bank? Is that really a win? I'd say that a big "LOSE" for humanity. If Trump wants to bully and break someone down, he should do it to the central bank, like Andrew Jackson did. But, Andrew Jackson had huge nards and wasn't afraid to be killed for his convictions, unlike your "god emperor."
The enemies of humanity are the BIS, the IMF, and the world bank; not Iran or China. China is just an opportunist of the f'ed up world system they find themselves in.
In reply to >You're wrong on Iran If… by tmosley
The best case is a reset of the psychology of the Middle East leading to secularization of Islamic countries, and peace in the Middle East. A permanent solution to the Israeli/Palestinian situation will be part of that.
>But, Andrew Jackson had huge nards and wasn't afraid to be killed for his convictions
They have tried to kill him several times. Yet he persists.
In reply to So what's the best case… by DingleBarryObummer
I am unaware of any assassination attempts on Trump. Source?
Secularization, as in the religion of mammon? So indigenous people are not allowed to have a Sharia state? Is that really any of Trump's business? Should the American people have to pay for that? This is not nationalism and this is not MAGA. It's Globalism monetization.
What of Iran's regime? Will Trump insist on a BIS ran central bank?
Trump won his base by promising not to meddle in the middle east. Now you are supporting some kind of liberal-esque idealistic "let's all hold hands and sing kumbaya by the fire" NWO type of utopia, whilst skirting the issue of global debt slavery and usury.
In reply to The best case is a reset of… by tmosley
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/video/2016/mar/14/donald-trump-prot…
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/11/us/politics/white-house-fence-jumper…
https://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/nyc-crime/armed-man-busted-trump-t…
>Secularization, as in the religion of mammon?
Stop being a retard.
>So indigenous people are not allowed to have a Sharia state?
Only if they want to be walled off.
>Is that really any of Trump's business?
9/11 made it our business. Islam is the source of the vast, VAST majority of all terrorism in the world.
>Should the American people have to pay for that?
You seem to be laboring under the delusion that I am saying Trump is going to send out troops on a holy crusade. Words are cheap. Trump uses them to great effect.
>This is not nationalism and this is not MAGA
You desperately want that to be the case so you can be right.
>Trump won his base by promising not to meddle in the middle east.
Delusional. He won by promising to "kick the hell out of ISIS" among other things.
>NWO type of utopia
Also delusional. The NWO is the deep state. That is on its way out, but you are begging us to hold on to it. Fuck you.
In reply to They have tried to kill him… by DingleBarryObummer
All your points are propaganda that could be debated and largely debunked. Most people here are not buying that stuff anymore.
And you are still skirting the global central banking issue, the biggest issue. What about the financial terrorists in our own borders? How about kicking the hell out of them?
In reply to https://www.theguardian.com… by tmosley
>All your points are propaganda that could be debated and largely debunked.
Do it faggot.
In reply to All your points could be… by DingleBarryObummer
Israel is akin to the Sunni's.
This is about survival to the Shia's.
When you back someone into a corner, expect them to become fighting mad...
Surprised Iran hasn't played the genocided card yet on the world stage.
In reply to I agree with you. It's a no… by LetThemEatRand
Too many enemies. No wonder Chump increased the defense budget.
...unlike the faggot chimp who was obsessed with transgenders' (like his 'wife') being allowed to serve, Trump prefers to kill the enemy
In reply to Too many enemies. No wonder… by NemesisteM
Who's this enemy you're talking about, stu? I still haven't figured that one out. To me, it looks like the whole world is our enemy, but they haven't done anything to us. The USA started these wars, based on a bunch of lies.
In reply to ...unlike the faggot nigger… by Stu Elsample
sssssh, don't spoil Stu's wet-dream, he might accidentally jerk off on mummy's bed sheets.
In reply to Who's this enemy you're… by Labworks
who is the enemy?
what is your IQ?
In reply to ...unlike the faggot nigger… by Stu Elsample
This guy works in the Pentagram Basement?
Once you've taken a few trips around the geo-macro block, it's Painstakingly obvious who the brain washed, and hoodlums are?
Where's Jon "Kohn" Kerry?
Jon Kohn and his wife are maternally locked through Heinz Ketchup.
[H/T] Tyler for the editing.
John Kerry's w.ife Teresa Heinz upgraded from critical condition to 'fair' after 'having a seizure' | Daily Mail Online
You are mistaken, it is not a dragon.... Its a FUCKING CHICKEN! The Japanese were having fried fucking Chinese chicken all through WWII.
What happens if they poke us?
Where?
In reply to What happens if they poke us… by Angry Panda
There will be no war with China. All the bellicosity and media hype is nothing more than propaganda intended to justify greater military spending, cow the populace(s) and provide cover for the real shit that will eventually hit the fan.
Naval and air blockade of Taiwan in........3......2.....1
Fuck you Amerika and your fucking soybeans, how many of those farmers are gonna keep sucking Trump cock when they are reposseing their $500,000.00 combines? and ALL OF your Nobel bullshit and Kim Jung Un is our fucking guy so eat international shit and keep your shit out of the South CHINA< MOTHERFUCKER, Sea!
Nobel Prize for : Poll Fuckers............I vote Putin.......and BTW.......fuck you! and Double fuck you!
Ever seen what happens when you enforce a blockade of food against 1.3 billion people? China blocks Taiwan, US blocks China and splashes those pipelines, railheads and road networks.
In reply to Naval and air blockade of… by garcam123
Oh for Pete’s sake. Nobody is going to war. All this “chaos” is for public consumption while the NWO elite advance their agenda.
Whatevah you do, don't look behind the curtain.
Everybody's necked...
In reply to Oh for Pete’s sake. Nobody… by Dr. Engali
Oh how badly the Deep-State and their Vassals Lust after controlling interests within the CHN Economy.
They did it before with Opium. Which Venues will they choose next?
Korean War, we lost.
Viet Nam war, we lost.
Afghanistan war, we're losing.
Iraq war, we're losing.
You go to war with China and you will get our asses kicked so far off this planet, we'll be star dust.
Tell me you're not that fucking stupid.
You assume that those who instigated these wars had the same definition of winning as you.
In reply to Korean War, we lost. Viet… by PitBullsRule
Pagination