Bernd 10/13/2017 (Fri) 23:03:39 No. 11165 del
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Ophelia's eye has become better defined over the past 6 hours.
Although cloud tops near the inner core of the hurricane are warmer
than 24 hours ago, a ring of -50 deg C or colder cloud tops still
surrounds the eye. Dvorak current intensity estimates have not
changed substantially, and a blend of objective and subjective
classifications still supports an initial intensity of 85 kt.

Little change in strength is expected while Ophelia remains a
hurricane, since the relatively cool SSTs along the hurricane's path
will likely be offset by low shear and cold upper-level temperatures
for the next 36 h. Extratropical transition will likely begin
shortly after that time, as Ophelia begins to interact with a large
upper-level trough approaching from the west. The dynamical
guidance suggests that Ophelia will deepen in response to the
trough, and although the forecast does not explicitly show it, I can
not rule out that Ophelia will briefly intensify as it undergoes
extratropical transition. By 72 hours, the cyclone is expected to

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