>the Soviets made the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact to start another war between France and Germany
It's possible, it certainly isn;t something they would have been too worried about.


>the Soviets wouldn't've even joined the war, except Germany was going to lose to Poland (ending the war without weakening the Western powers)
No, Germany was winning quite one sidedly, the Soviet involvement was minimal. The main thrusts came from the German side, Germany actually had to give up land they had taken because it was in the Soviet agreed zone.

>Operation Barbarossa was a pre-emptive strike; Hitler never had a choice to avoid war with the Soviet Union, only whether to attack or to be attacked
Yes, a war was going to happen one way or another. A major concern was that the Soviets would attack Germany while it was at war with France which was a part of the need for a fast campaign there. The Soviet Army was deployed along the border in a defensive manner but it was also in manner that could eaasily be changed into an offnsive one.

>the Soviets lost a shitload of personnel and materiel to Barbarossa because they had an offensive force on the border, waiting to blitz all of Europe

Possible.