>>47100
I'm thinking you probably don't deserve a serious reply
>>47101
Very understanding of you. Here's more for you to commiserate with.
>>47105
>nor what the real situation on the ground is or what the real plan of the Russian army is
>Or maybe they do intend to bring more forces in at some point but later on, I don't know.
True, we don't know. But my guess is that the Russian claim about the assault on Kiev and other areas being purely diversionary is a pretext. As (I think) you said, even if the chance of success is small, it still makes sense to try an assault on the main cities, away from Donbass, if success would mean a quick and relatively bloodless end to the conflict. Well, most likely they gave it a go, and it didn't work out. If it was only diversionary, why announce it publicly and lead Ukr to redeploy its forces, pinned down there, to other fronts? One reason may be deception. However, there are reports now about Russian forces leaving some areas like Gostomel, Chernobyl, somewhere around Sumy, somewhere around Kherson. If that's true, there was no deception since it makes little sense to leave now just to redo the work later. So if they are leaving those areas it must be because staying is not sustainable, or because troops are needed elsewhere and no other reinforcements are forthcoming, or because they reached some kind of agreement and are getting something else in return (there were reports about Moscow and Kiev getting a little closer in their positions at Constantinople).
My guess is that there will be no russian mobilization and no more forces will be deployed. Russian forces will finish clearing up Mariupol and eventually take the rest of Donbass either through fighting or by striking a deal with Kiev. The vanquishing of Azov and the liberation of Mariupol will be celebrated loudly. But it will mean the rest of Novorossia, and Kiev itself, will have slipped away. Of course, "the west" is bound to call it a russian defeat in any case. But, although neither Kiev or Novorossia where at any point an official goal, some russians, too, will wonder if the reward was worth the sacrifices. Furthermore, I'm sure that, in this scenario where russia doesn't obtain a capitulation from kiev, the post-war direction of the ukrainian state will continue to be pro-atlanticist and anti-russia (even if militarily neutral). Just consider the >$13 billions approved by the US congress as "aid" for ukraine. Obviously this is again the same ngo-mediated influence-buying policy-directing program we have seen before.
The kremlin is making a mistake. Strelkov was right.
>>47118
>That's a bit exaggerated.
Not too much, though. Every 3 or 4 days there's an article about US/UK/EU/Turkey sending more equipment. And when there is not, we read instead about them asking for more.
>how they gain ground by the house. And how the Chechens rode into the town and died.
Ironic. It seems (some of) the Chechens themselves forgot about Grozny.
>I seem to recall a video featuring him where they used green screen
I saw that. 2 actually. Mismatched lighting, not well done.

>>47119
>Ukrainians might feel more and more they are a cohesive nation-state capable of organizing and sustaining a war effort.
May be, but it is very clear that the organization comes at least partially from nato/5-eyes with which they admit to be in daily contact. If russia "loses" this, the ukraine may move towards a more cohesive state not because of an increase in cooperation between their peoples, but because the pro-russia people will feel abandoned and will quietly suffer the same suppression they have for the past 7 years at least. Because, if russia "loses" this, it will be because it didn't really want to win it that much.
But actually, when I say "russia" I really mean the kremlin. It seems to me that most russians do want to win this very much (even more so after seeing what the UAF does to POW), so the kremlin is walking on thin ice: a defeat, or a victory only on paper, could spell serious instability for the russian govt.
>the most pro-Russian parts of the country will be the most damaged by combat.
This became clear early on. Obviously Azov didn't gaf about the damage to Mariupol or its inhabitants. Same about the rest of Donbas. The tactic seems to be to force the russian forces to partially destroy the civilian/industrial infrastructure if they want to take the cities. Meanwhile, the population centres in the far west, from which the "ukrainian" ideology spreads, remains almost intact. Russia should duke Lvov.
>Russia will have more gains as the war gets long and bitter, but their quality will be lower.
But will it get much longer? There is some chatter now about a partial convergence in their negotiating positions (basically ukr saying it's willing to agree on neutrality, provided they can aspire to eventually join EU [more on this below], and willing to "compromise" on Donbass and Crimea; no mention of demilitarization or denazification). Supposing ukr agrees in full, would rus accept and end the war at once? Given the costs already paid and those to be paid for several more years (if the economic war is not stopped), would Russia be content with that? Like you, I tend to think "no". But as I said, the only way I see for moscow to extract a complete surrender from kiev is by deploying the rest of its army and, at least partially, mobilizing its population and economy. And that is not happening. On the contrary we are beginning to see some controlled retreat/redeployment.
About Ukr joining EU: The exclusivity demanded by EU in 2013 was one of the factors that contributed to the 2014 coup and the civil war in the Ukraine. It would be kind of lame for russia to now acquiesce to the same thing.
Also, notice that this is somewhat in tension with the neutrality demand: EU is developing into a superstate and starting to acquire elements of a military alliance. Just a couple of weeks ago a "common military strategy" was introduced, including the creation of a "rapid deployment force", cooperation and integration of infosec capabilities, joint military-related investment and development, and NATO cooperation. In fact, France has been among the strongest supporters of the creation of a european army and one of the conduits discussed for the implementation of such project was the EU. Russia is making a mistake if it still believes that EU is just a trade bloc. If USA's rule over Europe remains strong, EU will act as an extension of NATO. If it weakens, EU might become a separate military bloc.
>Winter War
Russia proper gained territory as a result, so I'm drawing a parallel between the narratives surrounding that conflict and the ones that reasonably could sprout from this one.

>>47137
>I think expressing sympathy towards everyday Ukrainians shouldn't be annoying to anyone, I don't see how it is a problem for you
I think you misunderstand. Of course it is not a problem for me and I don't find it annoying when expressing sympathy. (If something irks me, it's only the dumb hypocrisy. Did any of them gaf about the Ukraine for the past ~8 years? Ofc not. And tbh, it is the dumbness that irks me even more than the hypocrisy or one-sidedness.)
No, I was replying specifically to the words he addressed to me ("Well it's a war... people aren't going to be level headed. It can happen anywhere"), which I thought amounted to a deflection. I should have quoted it to avoid confusion
Anyway, since you vouch for him:
>>47100
It is a dumb question. Is it pointless because the Atlanticist media will paint Russia into an even bigger boogeyman than they already portray them as? Nah. So, what's the point? Well, from the Russian PoV you can grasp "their point" by reading their demands: recognition of the Donbass, and Crimea, neutrality, "demilitarization", and "denazification". But to really understand that you should ask "how come" and "to what end". I (and others) have posted about that in the previous Syria and News threads, you could go back and read them. But, as an incomplete executive summary, this war is a denouement of: more than a century of divisions within a state haphazardly put together by commies and subjected to their "korenizing" nation-building practices; 30 years of NATO expansion in violation to promises given in exchange of the reunification of Germany; US-aided "fortification" of the presidential elections in 2004, in favour of a US-friendly candidate; US-fostered coup d'etat in 2014, followed by a US-directed purging of officials perceived by washington as insufficiently atlanticist (see the Kerry, Biden, and Nuland leaked tapes), including the prosecutor that was investigating Hunter Biden, son of the then-VP of USA, for his dealings in Ukr; massacre of russian-speakers in Odessa; Crimea voting to break off from the successor state of the soviet republic it was shoved into (by a soviet leader from the Ukr); civil war in the Donbass, last-minute aid from Russia, ~6 years of frozen conflict with start-stop shelling, >14000 dead, displacement of hundreds of thousands; elevation of "nazi"-larping paramilitaries and hooligans into the ukrainian army; state-sanctioned celebration of Bandera and other allies of WW2 Germany in west-ukraine; restrictions on russian (and hungarian) language, and their native speakers within the Ukraine; >6 years of the Ukrainian state reneging the implementation of the peace agreement it signed (Minsk II), and as many years of Berlin and Paris (the other 2 guarantors of the agreement, apart from Moscow) not pressuring Kiev to comply with its obligations.
You might want to listen to this interview with Alain Juillet, former chief of the DGSE, France's top intelligence agency. Long interview that touches on several topics besides the Ukraine, but you can use their table-of-contents to jump around. https://invidious.fdn.fr/watch?v=AQhGxsprH8A
Since feelings of sympathy towards ukrianians are known to you, you could also watch this film-documentaire by frenchwoman Anne-Laure Bonnel. It was produced with footage from the first year of civil war in the Donbass in early 2015 and focuses on civilians there. https://invidious.fdn.fr/watch?v=CWSYY4KL76E
>>47150
>reconnaissance by force ... with enough force so it can be built up into a full scale assault if results are promising.
Exactly. Probably it was dual-purpose.
>>47151
>They are told again and again how the world hates them
I think "the western world" gave them plenty of evidence for this. Seriously, is kind of like "covid" was rebranded "russia" so that the hysteria could live on.
>Rebuilding
Grozny looks pretty decent nowadays

>>47135
>but it would mean nothing without a fighting force on the ground capable of exploiting it
Sure, but I include this in "nato/5-eyes organization", because of the training of troops they received for several years. I do not discount their competence, although we should also note that they fight a "total war" (a "dirty" war), while rus may have been handicapped by their desire to be positively received by the locals (thus restrained engagement)
>>47136
>I heard they were calling more Conscripts
It could be the seasonal call for service. According to the internetz, Russia should have many more troops than is currently using in this conflict, so they should not need conscripts for this. (Anyway, they wouldn't be very useful in the frontline, although maybe recruits could be used in the rear, or to do some logistics work in controlled territory, or to replace garrisons in peaceful parts of the country.)
>or how their logistics are holding up. This could play out like the German invasion of France...
Hm. Would be vital for them to ensure fuel/lubricant supplies are eliminated then
>>47142
>The bigger issue is what this actually means for the war.
You basically covered all the main points: these unconfirmed events/provocations are used to rally political support for escalations, either militarily (sending/using heavier ordnance), or economically (ratcheting the economic war), or diplomatically (pressuring countries into isolating the target).
Anyway, until forensic evidence is found and presented it's just another wave of atrocity propaganda. Like the "playhouse" story before (>>46960), and the "maternity hospital" story before that: No evidence of killed civs or of who caused the destruction of that playhouse was presented. Still, the media ran wild with the story until Ukr congressmen themselves put ice on it by claiming they had found hundreds of civs unharmed in the basement of the building. Before that, they had claimed that rus has bombed a maternity hospital in Mariupol. We saw the rubble and seemingly injured women being carried in stretchers. Again, no attention was paid by the MSM to provide evidence of who caused the explosion or to whether the hospital was really a hospital at the time (rather than a military post). Well, one of the women whose face was used for that photo-op was actually evacuated by rus and, a few days ago, she gave an interview (vid related). She claims that kiev and the msm lied
Same story with these bodies: we don't have evidence of whether all these people are dead and, if so, who killed them. We have emotional screeching instead. Some things to consider:
- A day or 2 passed since rus removed their troops from these locations until ukr moved in. If the story is that they murdered these people at any time before leaving, rigor mortis and morbid skin colouration should have been evident, but was it?
- If you look at other videos (e.g. vid related from Mariupol) you will notice that some civs are wearing white bands (like rus soldiers, apparently to show their allegiance). Well, some of these alleged corpses have white bands too. Something doesn't fit.
- Weird clip supposedly taken from Ukr TV where an alleged corpse seems to move
- Another video, claimed to be from that place around that time, where an ukr soldier allegedly asks if it's ok to shoot at people without blue bands and he is given the go ahead

>>47152
>Alain Juillet https://invidious.fdn.fr/watch?v=AQhGxsprH8A
Turns out the subtitles (machine-translated I guess) are total rubbish. There is a short summary about the Ukraine topics here: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1510495717520928772.html
>Anne-Laure Bonnel https://invidious.fdn.fr/watch?v=CWSYY4KL76E
This too, so maybe try this other one (although I think is not official translations): https://invidious.fdn.fr/watch?v=b8j0tJsKltg
>>47160
A 2-star officer in Kherson (I think) greeting firemen that welcomed the russian troops. (Video is not recent.)
>>47148
Several days ago the US said it would send hundreds of tanks and other armoured vehicles into the Ukraine. Rails loaded with tanks were reportedly seen in Czechia (apparently soviet-era equipment) and Germany (toward Poland, maybe NATO equipment). I really don't understand what Russia think it's doing by letting the western ukro borders totally open, unhindered, unthreatened all this time.

Misc (some of these are a few days old):
- A video shows an Ukranian Orthodox priest loyal to the Moscow Patriarchate being dragged out of his church by a bunch of ukrops
- The Ukraine asked Slovenia to remove its flag from the Kiev embassy because it's too similar to Russia's. Could they have been such faggots as to comply?
- Top floors of a residential building in Donetsk wrecked. DNR said it was an Ukr attack. 1 killed and several injured, including 2 children.
- Ukro govt amended a law to permit the confiscation/nationalization of property belonging to any russian citizen (not just corporations or legal persons, but natural persons too), also to any person regardless of citizenship that expresses pro-russia opinions regarding the war. Ukro PM says they will nationalize all russian properties.
- UN general assembly passed a US-proposed resolution to suspend Russia from a "human-rights council". Don't know what was the justification nor what the suspension entails but smells like conviction before trial
- Today: The railway station of Kramatorsk (IIUC, it's in Donetsk province, ukr-controlled but close to the DNR line of control) was hit by a Tochka-U. Allegedly ~30 civilians dead or injured. Possibly another cluster bomb, like the one said to have hit the centre of Donetsk several days ago also allegedly killing/injuring dozens of civilians. The russian army no longer operates those but the ukro/west narrative is what you would expect.

It seems it started.
Yesterday Russians/secessionists made an attempt on the Luhansk front, today Ukrainians counterattacked a bit north from there.
Heavy shelling at Kharkov, and another Russian attack in the south.
If I have to guess early tomorrow further developments can be expected. We'll see.

>>47253
>Azovstal is located by the sea, so maybe all the Russians have to do is blow a hole from the sea into one of the tunnels and they will flood the whole network

These tunnels aren't that close to the sea, so if Russian army can breach very large distance in ground with some tool from the sea, it is easier to use that tool to just destroying tunnels as is.

Most of these tunnels must be pretty shallow though. I don't know anything about Azovstal, but visited two large Soviet-era metallurgical plants in past (as a student). Can't remember too much, but they've had shallow tunnels for relatively fast transit between facilities (they go straight and path is shorter than on ground). They were not really deep, mostly as underground passages in cities under the roads. Direct hit with big bomb and ceiling will be crushed.

There were proper bomb shelters though, very large and well-protected (at least from unexperienced observer like me). One was used as storage for factory library for example (it is Volgograd steel plant). Here few photos from that place. These places may stay for long time, although supplies will run out eventually anyway, so it is matter of time.

Something did started.
Chief effort on the southern branch of the pincer.
I think elsewhere, especially on the middle area the action is limited, to engage Ukrainian forces and keep them busy.

>>47260
>might retreat the bulk of their good units from the front before they get encircled. But what if that's Putin's intention? He gets the land he wants at little cost
The actions, and more recently even the public statements, coming out of the US/UK/EU have been for weeks, openly, of proxy military war and direct economic war against the Russia. If what you hypothesize is what he wants, at this stage of the game, then he is stupid, or cowardly, or weak. Or any combination thereof. And if the evolution of the Russian state, nay, the Rus civilisation, because consequences of this war (if adverse enough) may prove to be that serious, if its evolution depends on the wants of one such man, or any one man (which I don't believe), then Russians deserve the next "revolution" coming their way. Alternatively, it's not that the kremlins are so pusillanimous but that the russian military is just amazingly weaker than it should be (also hard to believe). I don't understand it myself (>>47133). Russia doesn't need more land, doesn't even need the resources of that land. And the population in the Donbass, while loyal to the common all-russian-belorussian-ukrainian civilisation and thus probably a political asset for years to come (like the Crimea), is not in fact very productive or fertile (8 years of conflict has left the donbass at the bottom of various ukrainian health/productivity/education/QoL-related indices). What russia needs is to effect a strategic course-correction (indeed not a small one) in the Kiev govt and to physically and ideologically protect the loyal ukrainians from the Galitsiya jihadis, asymptomatic carriers of the "western liberalism", state ideology of the enemy empire.
>For the same reason he might settle for a "green bus" style deal in Mariupol
To put it mildly, this will not be well received by the people who saw their relatives prisoners-of-war purposely maimed, tortured, executed by such jihadis (in Mariupol or elsewhere). Or by the families of fallen soldiers who received taunts and mockery (courtesy of US facial-recognition internet-datamining companies). How will the russian police forces behave when asked to disperse hypothetical protesters demanding answers from a govt that did not react to the assault on fellow security personnel? It's the kind of thing that goes through my mind when I say "the kremlin would be walking on thing ice" (>>47134). A bit more than a century ago russia may have been just a few months from returning Constantinople to Christendom. Instead it was plunged into revolutionary chaos. Alas, if only it would have committed and striven a bit more. In a way, Kiev may come to resemble Constantinople.
>The retreat from northern Ukraine doesn't change a lot, Russia is moving forces to the east but naturally so is Ukraine
As the australian guy pointed out, it may be different for them if their fuel supplies and transportation means really have been sufficiently depleted. But I don't know if it's the case and I doubt it. In any case, while it may not change much for the eastern theater, I do think it is significant for the overall conflict. It's not just that the northern front was closed, but also that there are signs suggesting that it won't be re-opened soon (or at least that pressure is being applied by "the west" such that rus won't try to re-open it): some countries (czechia, france) talking about reopening their embassies in kiev; claims about some civilians going back to regions around kiev to check on relatives or properties or perhaps resettling; claims about us officials visiting kiev sometime soon; british military openly admitting to being back in the kiev region, training ukrs; and probably the most significant (if true, as usual, caveat emptor), claims about russia continuing to withdraw military equipment from bielorussia.

>>47260
>Westerners attribute this to Russian incompetence rather than Ukrainian competence
Fighting wise, on the ground, they are similarly competent (big surprise since they are basically the same fucking people, apart from the ethnic minorities on either sides). In an overall comparison, absence of the "overwhelming victory" is due to a combination, to varying degrees depending on the topic, of russian incompetence and ukrainian+nato competence (e.g. in strategy/intel). But for propaganda/ideological purposes in the west it pays more to beat down "the incompetent/corrupt/stupid/ugly russkie" (very low-status! steer clear!) than to push "the competent ukrainan". Besides, it's easier, after so many decades of "russkie bad" it just comes out naturally. (Also, one should beware: claims of of a quick and overwhelming russian victory, publicly trotted out by the US pentagon suits e.g., were intended to prime the audience for a counterpoint, inflated then into a huge reversal of expectations, a triumph against odds.)
>but after a certain point this is no longer relevant, in areas with intense fighting residents leave
X for doubt. UAF has deliberately used residential areas and civilians there as contingency warranties. According to testimonies, if truthful, they could not leave, were not allowed to. So, indeed, after a certain point, but there is one such threshold for each contested population centre
>Their lack of manpower mobilization for [...] war might be a bigger factor at this point.
I believe I said so weeks ago, so we agree (but let's just say war, real war, or full war; Total War not needed). But then this also puts this other statement in perspective:
>Ukraine was always at a disadvantage with its smaller population and economy
Indeed, but the presumed overwhelming victory before the start of the conflict relied on the assumption that russia would in fact make full use of these advantages, which IMO it did not. Instead, it went into the conflict presuming/hoping it was going to be not qualitatively different than in 2014. Barely a day of initial air strikes. No administrative centres targeted. Communications, energy, water, sanitation left alone. And then just riding towards cities. Russia was way too optimistic about the situation and did not engage with the severity required (it still doesn't!)
>it really will be more extensive than just pro-Russian Ukrainians becoming less active
They were/are already "less active" since they became disillusioned with russia after seeing that crimea was rescued from the sinking ship, while the donbass, which even took arms, was not given a hand until the last minute, and only to keep them afloat, not to take them to shore. Back then in 2014 there were already movements for a "Kherson NR" and a "Kharkov NR" and an "Odessa NR". Since people were burned alive in Odessa no one dared speak up before it's clear which way the wind blows.
No, a russian "non-victory" will not make them less active, it will ensure they are either marginalised into extinction or (if young enough) digested by the nazi-larping Galitsiyan schizophrenia.
>camarederie on the frontlines [...] the national/foreigner distinction
Lots of them speak better russian (restricted) than ukrainian ("only official language"). In a sense, it is still a civil war

Some buildup in the south, both west and on the Veliki Novosilka front. From Izium and the inner side of the curve the attacks continue towards Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, seems like a slow but steady gain.

>>47307
>Which would make sense if they control the ground above the tunnels but I don't know if they do or not.
I believe they only got surface control of a section, northwards and closer to civilian settlements. It's an interesting decision. Blockaded it was already. Continuing the blockade in the hopes that they run out of supplies, and hunger and thirst force them to surrender, means some of their forces remain occupied there. It shows that they either don't have the means to smoke them out (without taking huge casualties by trying to storm in), or are nervous about there being a sliver of truth to Azov's claims of civilians inside, or really really want them alive to parade them in Moscow.
>>47356
>So either...
You only mentioned the Nato-Ukraine-Moldova side of the story. It is indeed too soon for rus to try something like that, so I'm not ready to believe it. There were "provocations" in Transnistria for 2 days (autonomous region of moldova for ~100 years, separated during the dissolution of the SU, unrecognized independence, pro-rus, has hosted russian peacekeers for decades):
- Explosions at the building of the Ministry of State Security in Tiraspol, a military compound near the village of Parkany, and tv/radio towers (whose broadcast included russian signals) near Mayak. Notice: security administration building, military unit, and communications, these are typical initial targets for a military take-over.
- President of Transnistria claims that signs point toward ukrainian sabotages
- Potential goals for Ukr: diversion of russian forces to try and reinforce the small russian peacekeeping mission stationed there; siezing a large arsenal under russian control there; getting Moldova involved in the war.
- "Strike Tiraspol to save Mariupol", Butusov, a former military advisor to kiev
- Ukraine blames russian false flag
- Head of Moldova (a woman who has recently vilified the russian st. george ribbon, a symbol of WW2 victory) claims that the attacks probably originated from opposing forces within transnistria
- High terrorism alert declared. Checkpoints have been set up.
- There are claims of Ukr forces amassing in that direction
- Some civilian cars are crossing into Moldova proper
- Claims that aircraft are avoiding Moldova
Want to reply to more things but no time

>>47209
>in the foreign meddling in Ukraine, Moscow also took its part
Indeed. For example, they were backing Yanukovich while USA was backing Yushchenko. But it should be said, to Moscow and to most Russians and Ukrainians (with millions, maybe tens of millions, of familial bonds), the Ukraine (with its artificial borders including regions carved out of historical Russia, mostly by soviets) was never just another foreign country. These are not equivalent "meddlings".
>Russia has interest to gain [...] land
Doubtful, they already have more land than they can optimally defend given their population and fertility
>so has no interest in a calm and stable Ukraine.
This is completely backwards. Why would the Russia want chaos on its doorstep? Apparently "limited chaos" (oxymoron, I mean war) was preferable to a stable NATO puppet grown out of a historical russian region, but the one that instigated the chaos was not Russia
>On her behalf the Russian (speaking) minority is a tool to gain geopolitical advantages which lost when the SU fall apart.
There is some truth here. I think for example of how the donbass was supported by moscow in their conflict with kiev, but not decisively (perhaps enough so that donbass wouldn't fall, but not enough to compel kiev to write off donbass and crimea and, now without outstanding conflicts, apply for nato). People have explained how rus was not economically prepared for it back then, and considering that its economy seems to be holding on so far, they may have a point. But given the scope of the conflict now and how much militarily easier it would have been then, I doubt it was such a great idea. Such theory would seem to support the description of "tool", but, given their relationship, it's not the same as US using Kiev as "tool".
Wrt to geopolitical advantage: The statu quo ante was disrupted by USA trying to gain geopolitical advantage far away from its traditional region of influence and right next to russia (it is not just geography either as I tried to explain in previous posts). So it's more accurate to say they would be trying to prevent a geopolitical disadvantage (further encroachment of nato) or to retain their historical geopolitical influence. (It's not like moscow is reclaiming its geopolitically advantageous influence over Mexico, gone with SU, if you follow me.)
>Well, a total war in a sense that they use any tools they can come up with. The dirty war might be a better expression, since total war...
Exactly, that's what I meant, hence "total war" (his phrase) in quotes
>Plus for those who flee the men of the families will join, and they are those who fear or despise Russia and active enough to do something
Right, but this is a longer-term consideration after the hot part of the conflict ends. It is not applicable right now because men (fighting age) are not allowed to leave
>I doubt refugees will return
My thoughts too

>>47209
>I find it not easy to give opinion about these in general. But regardless if these true or not, their use in propaganda is obvious.
Yes, I also withheld any conclusion, as any reasonable observer would before independent forensic investigations have uncovered and presented evidence of who killed whom. I simply added that, in case it's not obvious that claims of atrocities by one party cannot be taken at face value, it's even easier to be sceptical about kiev's claims given the brazen, utterly mendacious propaganda it has put out before, and I'll add, given the outspoken brutality with which it has vowed to treat and has treated citizens friendly towards russia:
- Ukrainian military positions in Kramatorsk was allegedly leaked by a ukrainian, after the strike the mayor issued threats and then claimed that they had summarily executed someone as reprisal (pics). Incidentally, this was many days before the Tochka-U strike on the train station of the same town that allegedly killed tens of civilians. What if the pro-rus support in Kramatorsk is not isolated? Not hard to imagine since it's in Donbass. Are the cries about the killed civilians in Kramatorsk genuine? Also, it's kind of interesting how buzz about that attack hushed after photos of the of the missile showing the serial number were published. It was in the format and range of other Tochkas used by kiev against the donbass in previous years; not that it couldn't be faked, but still, buzz died down.
- Last week, Vitaly Kim (koryo?), governor of Nikolayev, said on live tv (the same Ukraina24 channel of which I posted before) that those that cooperate with russia will be executed extrajudicially, and claimed that a "special force" was operating to "eliminate traitors"
- Some days ago, the mayor of Balakeya in Kharkov was charged with "treason" by Kiev for accepting humanitarian aid from russian forces. Are these the ground on which kiev is to execute its citizens, as Kim said? Did the Bucha residents cooperate with russians too? What about those bodies with white armbands?
Things to consider. (Notice that these are just the ones uttered by the ukie officials themselves.)
>>47290
>In the heart of a free and democratic Europe
Pure clownery, he's channeling his inner Zelensky
>>47292
I don't think Uncle Nato would approve, unless he gets a piece of the pie as well. But I wonder what's the view of magyars towards their co-ethnics in the ukraine. Do they want that transcarphatian patch bad enough? A few weeks ago I read some Hungarian official addressing them by saying that "the motherland would always be with them" or somethign like that. If Hungary were to move in, Poland would probably too. It would mean nato expansion, though, so situation would have to become really difficult for russia to go along with it. (But I guess in some scenarios they might, considering that this far-west area was the least russified, cf. orthodox vs. catholics)
>>47306
>Fighters from Syria and Libya.
Probably bs. That claim has been trotted in and out for weeks, without a shred of evidence so far. Relatedly, Kadyrov recently offered $1M in rewards to anyone who reveals the locations of alleged Ichkerian batallions (CIA-backed islamists that fought and lost against Kadyrov father in Chechnya). Liveuamaps is very biased, specially in the news selection. For maps the least obviously biased used to be the one by the french forein ministry, probably why they got them to stop
>>47323
That's not true, it was not Wagner who said it. It was the Mali military and govt officials. Le Monde then posted an article where the French Army claimed they had drone footage of people burying bodies (when? where?). They said this was "very precise" information that led them to conclude that it was the act of the wagner group (or whatever it's called nowadays), Yet they also said that this "very precise" footage was of so bad quality that skin colour could not be distinguished and all it could acertain was that the men's attire did not match the pattern of the Mali army uniform. Unlike the wes

(continue) >>47381 >>47323
Unlike the western european govts regarding bucha, russian officials commenting on the matter did not accuse France of a massacre, they asked for a "thorough investigation". Btw, it was not in the base, but nearby, and the Mali army said the bodies were in "advanced level of putrefaction", so it couldn't be a very recent grave/dead.

>>47325
>Possibly, but it also has other sources.
Well, yes, I added a missing side of the story, but when I say that the russians were way too optimistic and, relatedly, that there is a component of incompetence in the realms of strategy/intel, I am agreeing with you: the pro-russia side, too, played "media games" (with different intentions, and perhaps partly on themselves, as it turns out). (That article is interesting. He got some things spot on, like the invasion happening which I did not believe was coming, but in others he was far off the mark, like the difficulty of the task. Was he playing "media games" too, partly on himself?)
>Language never stopped Croats, Serbs and Bosniaks. If Ukrainian nationalism isn't humiliated, it will come out more real in the minds of the masses than before.
Is not just language that's close, but in general I agree, and I'll add that there is probably something stupid in the mind of the Slavs, so given to infighting as they seem to be, even when it's obvious that they are being played against each other (often cleverly exploited by the Germanic or Anglo-Saxon). Maybe this is part of why I didn't believe they would really fight a war blatantly set up by a 3rd power. To me there just had to be some other way out of the situation. (Although, tbh I still don't know what that could have been, apart from the military-threat-based economic-pressure which I mentioned before. After diplomatic [e.g. endless diversion from implementing Minsk], political [e.g. arrested/killed politicians], mediatic [e.g. media closed by decree] means had failed, not sure what was left. Perhaps resorting to the unsavoury and dishonest clandestine assassinations typical of e.g. israel? Hopefully the Chinese are able to find another way, unlike the Slavs.)
>It being a civil war won't stop the us/them psychology, civil wars increase hate between two sides in the nation.
Again, I agree. Until/unless one side is defeated (US, Spain). But if that happens there is an easy way back to, if not friendship, at least compatible coexistence. It's why I say russia should be fighting "lvov", symbolically that's the seat of the ideology currently in power in ukraine. The "ukrainians" in kiev are actually "lvovites". If russia had the capability, ambition, and guts and to definitively solve the issue, to put an end to "lenin's little-russian empire", it should make this distiction and strike at the core their adversary, giving regular ukrainians an easy way to distance themselves from the "galitsiyan jihadism". However, as said before, it would seem that at least 1 of those 3 is missing.
>>47359
Video was published of the attack on the govt building (are those rpg canisters not reusable? Why leaving them to be found?)
- There are more reports of suspicious activity: shootings, drones.
- Reports that kiev is holding "military exercises" in the oblast bordering Transnistria. Mutual game of threats and diversions? Invasion intended to ensure nato/romania supplies from the south? Poland and Romania also reportedly doing "military exercises"
- Bulgaria and Izrael tell their citizens to leave transnistria and avoid moldavia. Some time later reports of western countries also recommending to avoid the place
- Transnistria MoD requested mobilization (apparently not yet granted)

>>47430
NFKRZ kinda reminds me of Peter I of Russia for some reason. Dunno. Same face and hair

Maybe we should invite nkfrz here. Mayb


Also wanted to leave this here. Because why not

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/why-tsar-peter-great-established-beard-tax-180964693/

The Hungarian news site I usually cite, Index is shitting on Russian Victory Day parade. They made a comparison of last year's and current year's military hardware used.
Helicopters: 23 -> 15;
Sukhois: 10 -> 0;
Mig-29: 4 -> 16;
Armored vehicles: 198 -> 131;
T-80: 114 -> 10(!);
BMP-3: 6 -> 3;

Also I made a screenshot of situation yesterday, just forgot to post. However the news snippets there is interesting.
First the evacuation of Transnistria - well at least the families of the officers (I assume the families of the low ranking crew - conscripts and contracted - has no reason to move with the unit).
The other is the rebase of the F-16 unit.

>>47430
Yeah I follow him since you suggested a while back.
All of his new videos are from Georgia. He moved there.

>>47431
He really looks similar. Maybe it's on purpose, he did after moved to St. Petersboro.
>beard tax
We learn about that in high school.

Also caught something on Flightradar few days back. I dunno how extraordinary is this since I'm not a big lurker, but I checked and right now there is similar coming and going over Poland, and a C-130 is flying over Hungary.

The Chechens are fighting near Svieriodonetsk now. They captured a browning and a DP-29.

Uranian took back a decent amount of territory around Kharkiv, I don't know how hard the Russians are trying to hold it though. The Russians are saying they have only got a small holding force there to distract Ukraine.

That blue marker with the handcuffs is saying that the Ukrainians have detained 11 snipers. Hmmm.... It sounds dubious as I don't see why snipers would be left behind like that particularly 11 of them, though this was common in WW2, Russian snipers would stay in trees or other locations right up until their positions were reached but I don't see that happening now, more likely they are just random Russian soldiers they are calling snipers.

Pontoon was destroyed. But it seems Russians reached the village nearby. The Telegram post says "infiltration". But it sounds like just the troops which managed to cross but with the pontoon destroyed trapped on the other side.

India bans wheat export.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/14/india-blocks-all-wheat-exports-with-immediate-effect.html
>“Indian ban will lift global wheat prices. Right now there is no big supplier in the market,” the second dealer said.
Well, India really is among the largest producers, but their export doesn't reflect that, it isn't proportionate. Sure it will be missed from the market but it is dwarfed by the amount Russia and Ukraine usually offers.
Also we're gonna bank from this (too).

The Howitzers sent to the Ukrainians have been downgraded it seems. They have had there digital targetting systems removed these provided satellite global positioning, inertial navigation, radio, Gun Display Unit (GDU) and Section Chief Assembly (SCA).

The first variant does not have these but the starting with the second they do.

"Hundreds" of the Azovstal defenders surrendered (and transported to Russia). Some remains, unknown how many.

>>47569
Lies! Russia will lose and crumble under embargo.

Generous shelling today.
And check this: they apparently reached Bilohorovka, the village towards the north, where the river crossing was spoiled. This means they basically have a pocket with very little lifeline, probably none. Question how long they can hold out in there.

>>47685
And instead of surrender they spend time to make these videos, trying to appeal to the higher-ups. They are committed.
If they'd surrender - and the article says the numbers in the thousands who face trial and sit in detention in their own homeland, so it would be a considerable number - the Russians could use them as propaganda tool (besides being POW or even facing charges in Russia), and I think the know this, and want to prevent even this.

It is occurred to me that EU's fossil fuel problem could be solved with Libyan oil. It is close, just plug it into Italy, and it can flow.
However Libya is a bit busy now, most of the oil fields are cockblocked by LNA and the Russians. The latter cleverly expands her influence in the turmoil of the Sahel.

Here's an article from January:
https://english.alarabiya.net/business/energy/2022/01/10/Libya-s-oil-export-woes-deepen-as-weather-takes-out-more-ports
But this guy has nice maps, from Petroleum Economist, the latest is from May 23, so quite fresh:
https://nitter.net/reportingLibya

Yesterday this looked the same. Growing pressure?

>>47756
Yes they sent territorial brigades as the reserve. Probably the first liners are wore down.
>they are one of the main sources of poor moral
Definitely.
Also remember vidrel? These guys and the other volunteers are fighting somewhere. Probably in those territorial brigades. Those were most likely "empty" units with skeleton crew and they got refilled with civvies.

Busy front today. I guess Russians are pushing hard for results. Or maybe they find the resistance softer and want to exploit the chance.
A ground attack in the West north of Kherson was initiated as well by them.

A Czech T-72 was captured in Ukraine. Interestingly everything seems to be in English.

It was refitted in Romanian by APOLO.

This Ukrainian bridgehead on Davydov Brod, near Kherson, looks relevant, though allegedly it was beaten back.

Meanwhile in Syria, both sides are already reinforcing the Tal Rifaat and Manbij fronts, where the Turkish-rebel offensive is expected. Iran opposes the Turksih operation:
https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2022/06/iran-turkey-brace-face-syria

Elsewhere, Israel bombed the airport in Damascus. An overlooked flashpoint has been Sinjar in Iraq, where the Yazidis are divided between the Kurdistan Regional Government-Turkey and Shi'a Iraqi-PKK-Iran camps. The Iraqi central government is logically in the latter camp, but made an offensive against PKK-aligned Yazidis last month under an agreement with Turkey to remove militias from the area. This is confusing, and if it continues to be an Iran-Turkey conflict, then the Iranian-aligned Iraqi central government would have to cease its attacks.
https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/how-iraqs-sinjar-became-battleground-between-turkey-and-iran
https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/iraq-sinjar-yazidis-flee-offensive-armed-group

Ukros using electric dirtbikes. They lug around AT weapons.

Moved this thread here, to keep the stuff together.

Australia also has to re-open a coal mine to cover the gas shortage. The mine is situated next to Graz, and was closed in 2020 due to environmental concerns.
The news was broke on national telly by Leonora Gewessler, an environmental activist, Die Grünen party politician who serves now as the Minister of Climate Action, Environment, Energy, Mobility, Innovation and Technology.
The cope is that now they lowered Russian gas dependency to 70%.

Ukro-level shameless PR optics. Such is the degree of control and dominance of media gifted by their western patrons
But more interesting than the ukrainian stupidity/shamelessness is Germany going along with it (Barbarossa) by delivering those weapons on cue. USA's narrative-control leash on Germany must've slacked as some interests override others.

>>48047
>about democratic expectations, and anti-corruption demands
Just a day before it was confirmed by a "constitutional court" in Lvov the outlawing and confiscation of assets of the 2nd most popular political party in the Ukraine in the 2019 presidential elections (and the most popular in eastern regions). This was on top of other 8 opposition parties banned previously. Von der Bitch just a few hours ago: "Our opinion acknowledges the immense progress that democracy has achieved since the Maidan protests [fucking lol] of 2014". Such a tiresome charade.

>they'll let Ukraine in on the first possible occasion
Would mean more massive diversions of money from the top EU budget contributors
Also, while I suppose Russia would rather have EU pay for Ukr infrastructure restoration, on security grounds they should oppose this. I said this months ago when Russia was saying that EU for ukraine was dandy. EU is almost acting as an extension of NATO now and moving more in that direction, and even in the best-case scenario (for us) that EU become liberated from the Yank Yoke it will probably then develop into some kind of military bloc, and on current trends it will be opposed to Russia no less than USA is. In fact maybe some russian reads end/kc/ because some time later I read that some rus official said that they were now withdrawing their "blessing" of Ukr accession.
In any case, I'm fairly certain that this visit of Macron, Draghi, and the "sad sauerkraut" (as the Ukrainian ambassador called him) to Kiev and the subsequent statements in support of candidate status, and the actual candidate status too, if it materialises, are just intended to prop up the Clown of Kiev, his political party, and his administration, so that the govt. can hold on as long as possible, extracting as much cost as possible from the rus before the end. It is purely self-interested, to draw the war out by gifting the clown the necessary political capital to offset bad news that may come from the frontlines.

>the EU will try to move for the dissolution of the member states, and create a federal government over them, creating a super-state...
I agree. I said similarly before. But I see this occurring in a much longer time frame than a potential partition of Ukr with involvement of EU states (Poland mainly, perhaps Hungary, perhaps Romania [btw, Moldavia's govt submitted an amendment to halve the number of signature required for a referendum on unification with Romania; such a thing may have serious implication for Transnistria and other pro-Rus regions of Moldavia])