Fed Intervention Signals

Emergency FOMC Meetings: Watch for unscheduled meetings—rare unless crisis is severe.
• Example: March 2020 emergency rate cuts + QE.
New Liquidity Facilities: Look for repo/Treasury backstops.
• Key Phrase: “Full range of tools to support markets.”
QE Resumption: Large Treasury buys = bond “buy” signal.
Reverse Repo Adjustments: RRP rate changes signal short-term fixes.

Market Stress Gauges
Repo Meltdown:
• SOFR > 6% = Funding freeze.
• Higher Collateral Demands (e.g., 105% vs. 102%) = Liquidity crunch.
Yield Chaos:
• 10Y/30Y Yields Spike = Fed credibility doubted.
• Yields Rise Amid Panic = Systemic red flag.
Basis Trade Collapse: