>>136452
cont...
To avoid unintended clashes and contain incidents, Russia and the U.S. need to redress the shortcomings of their hotline, to ensure it allows for time-sensitive communication, prevents miscommunication and stops future incidents, such as a breach of the de-confliction zone, from escalating. The shooting down of the Shahed 129 drone in June demonstrated this problem, as Pentagon officials acknowledged that the situation evolved too rapidly to communicate with their Russian counterparts. The communications channel seems to have performed more effectively in the 4 October incident, and again during the 16 November incident with ISIS forces. U.S. and Russian officials should assess whether it is possible to further reduce hotline response times and ensure timely and accurate exchanges of information.

Bracket Al-Tanf: The utility of rebels based at al-Tanf in the anti-ISIS effort has declined, and the U.S. doesn’t currently have any other strategic use for them -- especially because it also has seemingly ended its investment in armed resistance against the Syrian regime. This does marginally decrease U.S. incentive to stay in al-Tanf, but probably not to a point where they are prepared to withdraw unilaterally and cede its control to Iran and its allies. Until the fate of the base is determined in broader negotiations between major parties over Syria’s future or in bilateral arrangements between the U.S. and Russia, Iranian and Iran-backed forces should refrain from breaching the 55-km cordon around the garrison in the air or on the ground.

https://www.crisisgroup.org/trigger-list/iran-usisrael-trigger-list/flashpoints/al-tanf-syria