>>168841, >>168842, >>168843, >>168844, >>168845
Bill Melugin @BillMelugin_ - A) The Hitchhiker’s Guide To What To Expect Tonight On the Government Shutdown
A brief overview first:
Test vote tonight
Final passage overnight or tomorrow? Or perhaps in a few days?
Watch the internal anger among Democrats
What changed? Pressure to end the shutdown mounted. It’s a different spending package than the one which was blocked. And some Democrats got what they wanted in the appropriations bills tacked onto the bill.
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The Senate is moving toward a test vote tonight to break a filibuster on a new GOP spending plan. This test vote is not to be underestimated. If the Senate breaks a filibuster on the test vote tonight, it’s likely the government shutdown is just a few days from ending.
Here’s what we expect:
Sometime between 8 and 10 pm et, the Senate will take the test vote to break the filibuster on the revised GOP spending package. The revamped bill re-opens the government through at least January 30. That buys lawmakers time to work on individual spending bills. However, the package includes full spending bills until next fall for the Department of Agriculture, veterans and military construction programs plus Congress.
It’s about the math. Sixty yeas are needed to break a filibuster Republicans believe they can get a group of Democrats to side with them to at least break the filibuster.
Fox is told to keep an eye on these senators who caucus with the Democrats: Sens. Tim Kaine (D-VA), Mark Warner (D-VA), Raphael Warnock (D-GA), Jon Ossoff (D-GA), John Fetterman (D-PA), Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV), Angus King (I-ME) and Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH). Also keep an eye on Senate Minority Whip Dick Durbin (D-IL) has expressed interest in opening the government.
In addition, it is unclear if Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) could vote yes. Paul previously voted to block the old GOP funding plan. A potential yea or nay vote by Paul could determine how many Democrats are needed to break the filibuster. After all, it’s about the math.
Voting to break the filibuster does not necessarily mean that these senators would eventually vote for the underlying bill. However, Republicans can haul the freight on their own with a simple majority and won’t need any Democrats for final passage.
What happens if the Senate scores 60 yeas? By the book, it would take until NEXT weekend to get to a final vote on the bill. But that probably doesn’t happen
There are two schools of thought: