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The Soybean Trap and the Midterm Election Clock
The decisive factor in this diplomatic pivot is not Taiwan's sovereignty; it is the American farmer.
China’s retaliation against the escalating US trade war—which saw the US hit with its own "50% BIS rule," the sanctioning of US allies like Hanwha, and sweeping export controls on critical materials like rare earths—culminated in a politically surgical strike: suspending the purchase of American soybeans.
This action directly and instantly hit the President’s core electoral base in the agricultural heartland. With the 2026 midterm elections looming, the sight of farmers storing soybeans on the ground, desperate for "trade, not handouts," created a political crisis.
This pressure forced a reversal. Just weeks ago, President Trump struck a fragile trade and economic deal with President Xi Jinping in Busan. The cornerstone of that deal? China's commitment to purchase at least 12 million metric tons of US soybeans by the end of 2025.
To publicly back PM Takaichi now, and endorse her statement as a positive security step, would be to invite Beijing to tear up that freshly signed trade agreement, halt those crucial soybean purchases, and plunge the Republican heartland back into economic distress right before a major election cycle. The President is not going to trade his base’s immediate economic stability for a Japanese prime minister’s diplomatic clarity.
The Supply Chain Veto
Beyond the farm belt, the administration has recognized the severe vulnerability of the US high-tech economy. China’s earlier actions—using its dominance over rare earth elements, permanent magnets and superhard materials to threaten US defense, EV and manufacturing supply chains—demonstrated that Beijing has leverage over essential components of the 21st-century economy.
A public endorsement of Takaichi would trigger a new round of Chinese non-tariff retaliation. This would not merely affect tariffs; it would risk crippling access to the foundational materials necessary for everything from F-35s, nuclear submarines to electric vehicle batteries.
The long-term strategic doctrine championed by Colby—the need for Japanese commitment—remains the blueprint for US security in the Indo-Pacific. But in the short to medium-term, the American economy has effectively given China a diplomatic veto over the public statements of US allies.
President Trump has made his choice: He will maintain the strategic relationship with Japan through military planning (the "back-channel") but will sacrifice the public declaration of support (the "front-channel") to preserve the economic peace with China and secure his political flank at home.
The message to Tokyo is clear: You must be willing to defend the First Island Chain, but do not start the fight while we are still Selling soybeans to China and China has US by the Balls on rare earth elements, permanent magnets and superhard materials!
https://eadaily.com/en/ampnews/2025/12/07/financial-times-japan-and-the-us-on-the-verge-of-a-quarrel-over-taiwan
https://x.com/GordonGChang/status/1998033157392613768

Governor Andy Beshear @GovAndyBeshear - Today, the Kentucky Association of School Administrators (KASA), which represents 3,300 education leaders across the state, endorsed Gov. Andy Beshear’s Pre-K for All initiative.