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Iran Spectator @IranSpec - 𝐅𝐢𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐏𝐫𝐞𝐝𝐢𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧
| In a few hours, the final "strike options" briefing is presented to Trump, here is my analysis of what will happen:
𝐍𝐨 𝐇𝐚𝐥𝐟-𝐌𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐮𝐫𝐞𝐬:
A low-impact, symbolic strike is OFF the table, the U.S will not risk looking weak, the media will see protests being crushed the next day by the IRGC-Basij if it’s not big enough + will give them an excuse to crack down harder on protesters.
The U.S. is aiming for a medium-OR-high-damage operation, with the secondary goal of limiting Iran's ability to retaliate.
𝐎𝐩𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐀 (𝐌𝐞𝐝𝐢𝐮𝐦 𝐈𝐦𝐩𝐚𝐜𝐭):
Paralyzing the IRGC/Basij and assassinating top generals. This aims to cripple the regime’s internal control and spark revolution while keeping retaliation manageable.
𝐎𝐩𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐁 (𝐇𝐢𝐠𝐡 𝐈𝐦𝐩𝐚𝐜𝐭):
A massive decapitation strike. Destroying 60–70% of ballistic missile capabilities, air defenses, and IRGC command hubs (Tharallah HQ) to eliminate the threat entirely.
- Contrary to popular belief, No, they won’t need aircraft carriers, even for option B.
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- 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝟓𝟎/𝟓𝟎 𝐒𝐩𝐥𝐢𝐭:
It is a coin toss. Option A is strategic but risks U.S. lives in an Iranian retaliation, especially with no aircraft carriers; Option B is a total reset but carries the "Artesh wildcard." Explained below
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐀𝐫𝐭𝐞𝐬𝐡 𝐖𝐢𝐥𝐝𝐜𝐚𝐫𝐝:
If Option B is chosen, the fate of the country rests with the Artesh (Regular Army).
Will they take control and side with the people, or join the IRGC in a suicidal retaliation + mass genocide to kill the revolution?