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DataRepublican (small r) @DataRepublican - Some rural counties are still lagging in reporting returns. I expect we'll overtake 2024 mail-in margins next week and then we'll have to start giving Democrats a 4% handicap for registration gains.
Parent Post:
CA ET Nerd @earlyvotedata
Charts: Florida Early Mail Update 10/3:
There were not many new requests in this update so the requests stayed about the same. Democrats lead overall requests by 8.84% which is worse then there lead in 2024 but better than 2022.
With returns, Rs gained a solid amount by 0.33% and Ds now lead returns by 10.25%. Expect Rs to continue to gain in the mail.
I included a fourth graphic which shows the % change over the last 7 days for each party, you can see there was quite a large swing in favor of Rs. Don't expect that to happen again, but likely something more like a few % over the next week.
https://x.com/DataRepublican/status/2106374229801517283

DataRepublican (small r) @DataRepublican - It's upsetting because the polls affect where spending goes. Money is leaving races that are otherwise winnable, like NC.
Parent Post:
Chris @chriswithans
Charts: New York Times/Siena Texas poll where Greg Abbott trails Gina Hinojosa by 3 points is just Trump +7 on recall in a Trump +14 state and has 13% of 2026 likely voters as 2024 non-major party voters. This almost impossible, of course, in real life. The sample has him losing women. 23 point gender gap.
The poll is also just R+3 by party ID+Lean. That was the entire country in 2024! Texas was 12 points to the right of it. But the New York Times is suggests Texas became to the left of Arizona since then. No.
https://x.com/DataRepublican/status/2106367064088993965