Bernd 04/27/2020 (Mon) 23:25:29 No.36343 del
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>>36309
>Is there a possible "pretender" around? Rival in his own faction? How strong the opposition?
His nemesis is Rodrigo Maia, president of the Chamber of Deputies, who can rally an opposition from 3 sources:
-The old guard of Brasília, of which he is a representative: traditional parties of the center and right as well as the Supreme Court.
-A parliamentary minority of liberals, libertarians and others who have tried to distance themselves from the old guard, support Lava Jato and draw politically conscious voters.
-Often overlapping with the previous, former Bolsonaro allies who broke with him. Most were opportunists who latched on to his initially tiny circle when they saw his power, but ideology and/or lack of concession led them to break away. A huge section of Bolsonaro's allies have already defected.

In addition the media will support a center and right of center political offensive against the President. There's also the left which is loud but small and not allied with Maia. Besides the ideological gap, Moro's exit might have pleased them, as well as some of the old center.
If Maia can frame Bolsonaro and rally a strong enough base he might impeach him, but to attain power himself he'd have to impeach both President and VP as he's second in the line of succession. If Bolsonaro alone is toppled Mourão would make a lot of concessions but it would not be a complete defeat to the Bolsonaro camp.
Bolsonaro makes enemies with everyone, in a way a moral thing as there's less bribery involved, but also a stubborn way to rule which doesn't bear fruit unless he uses it to seize more power; so far it only led to a loss of power. He tries to rely on popular pressure but a lot of his voters picked him to defeat his opponent, not because of himself, and are now apathetic. He has a core base including engaged political activists, much like the Worker's Party, but that has also lost its strength. His most hardcore supporters now became Moro haters but many others are disappointed with how it turned out.