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Politics Serious Discussion - Getting out edition Bernd 04/24/2020 (Fri) 17:54:06 [Preview] No. 36217
Justice Minister Moro resigned. He is immensely popular and was doing a good job. There have been high-profile arrests and in 2019 the number of murders dropped by 10 thousand compared to the previous year, a decrease of a fifth. This is a result of many factors: in the Northeast cooperation among cartels reduced violence, but the reduction happpened in other states. Legislation wasn't a factor as there was next to no real change in this regard. He retains much prestige despite the scandal with his leaks, eternal hate from the left due to being Lula's nemesis and repeated disempowerment of the anti-corruption struggle by Congress and the Supreme Court.
What caused this was Bolsonaro's elimination of Federal Police director Maurício Valeixo, who had been picked by Moro. In his final address he noted that:
-There was no legitimate reason for this as he had been effective in his post
-This was a violation of the promise Bolsonaro made upon naming him Minister, that he'd have freedom to handle subordinates
-Bolsonaro also intends to replace a subordinate of the director, the Rio de Janeiro superintendent, and possibly other superintendents, which goes against his spirit of giving autonomy to subordinates
-A replacement now would create confusion and harm the Federal Police's functioning
-Bolsonaro personally told him this was a political choice

Why political? He did not say this straight, but what everyone says is that it was to protect Bolsonaro's sons from investigation, and hence why the Rio de Janeiro superintendent is also involved. Their corruption accusations are petty for Brazilian standards but what's bigger are accusations they might be tied to militias. As always Bolsonaro's sons are his priority. This behavior doesn't come out of nowhere as he has few contacts in Brasília, having lived his career in the sidelines, and many reasons to be distrustful. Moro isn't someone he has a reason to distrust but his sons still came first.


Bernd 04/24/2020 (Fri) 20:10:30 [Preview] No.36222 del
wow, big happenings this year.

Bolsonaro is fucked now, right?


Bernd 04/24/2020 (Fri) 20:26:36 [Preview] No.36224 del
>>36222
Not from this, the only immediate effect is that it'll hurt his popularity. Many of Bolsonaro's opponents hated Moro. But since this pandemic hit the whole country is a mess and his position grows more isolated every day.


Bernd 04/24/2020 (Fri) 20:42:34 [Preview] No.36228 del
This move just make the suspicions against Bolsonaro's sons more credible. Now peeps are speculating that yeah it was because of them, so they sure are guilty.


Bernd 04/24/2020 (Fri) 21:37:55 [Preview] No.36230 del
Bolsonaro made his own statement:
-He has the authority to sack the Federal Police director
-He told he'd sack him to Moro in advance, in yesterday's morning
-It was Valeixo who requested to be relieved of his post
-Moro did not inform him in advance of his decision to resign
-He never went off what was proper to request information on ongoing investigations
-Moro accepted that Valeixo would be sacked, but only after he himself would be named to be the Supreme Court in November

In comparison with Moro's earlier speech:
-He only knew of Valeixo's elimination after it was officially published, and did not sign it. Nonetheless the official document has Moro's digital signature. Moro said nothing about this but it has led to speculation that his signature was placed without his knowledge through fraud. Bolsonaro did not touch the topic of Moro's signature
-Valeixo spoke to Moro of leaving his post but only as a response to pressure, and his removal was political
-Bolsonaro wanted someone who could provide information on ongoing investigations
-Upon becoming minister Moro never put up the condition of being placed in the Supreme Court. More recently he said he never traded Valeixo's permanence for a nomination.


Bernd 04/25/2020 (Sat) 13:55:49 [Preview] No.36249 del
Polish election is coming in May. Due to this epidemic-situation their parliament decided to hold it remotely, the Royal Post was charged to manage the event. There are problems however...
https://www.politico.eu/article/polish-postal-vote-raises-data-privacy-concerns/


Bernd 04/25/2020 (Sat) 14:21:06 [Preview] No.36252 del
It seems Bolsonaro was lying. Moro's resignation did not come out of a vacuum, there was talk about it for a while and when Bolsonaro sacked Valeixo he knew a resignation could come. Likewise there was talk about political pressure on Valeixo for a long time so it can't be a personal desire to leave. Moro leaked Whatsapp correspondence with the President to the media. On them Bolsonaro links to a piece of news about the Federal Police weighing down on 10-12 of his deputies, and says "one more reason for a replacement". Moro pointed out that this was by the Supreme Court's orders.
The investigation itself is part of the Supreme Court's fake news enquiry, which is controversial and part of their tendency to overreach, on the same line as their gag orders on a news site last year.
Moro might be lying about not trading Valeixo's stay for a Supreme Court naming but there isn't more information on that.


Bernd 04/25/2020 (Sat) 15:29:17 [Preview] No.36255 del
Moro also showed a conversation with deputy Carla Zambelli in which she requests him to accept Valeixo's later replacement in exchange for the Supreme Court, but he refuses. At the very least the idea was in circulation.


Bernd 04/26/2020 (Sun) 11:26:43 [Preview] No.36286 del
>>36249
>royal
xd
There are more problems than mentioned in the article.
IMO main thing is lack of any decisions. Today is 26th of april. Elections originally were supposed to be 10th of May, that's 2 weeks from now. Polish Post assumed we need 3 days to deliver everything, so we would have to start on 6th. As of now there is no law declared that would allow for elections. As far as I know the senate is holding it for no real reason (just because they can). The institution that is responsible for printing all the voting papers have no right to print them and that takes time too. Don't forget it also needs to be shipped to all the post offices around the country. One of the president candidates, Krzysztof Bosak, said few days ago that he doesn't know if the elections are going to happen on 10th of May or not and that he also got info that a debate in state television is planned on 11th of May. IIRC after all the law gets approved elections can be held no earlier than 2 weeks from that day. So it would basically be against law to have them on 10th of May.
Postal workers are angry, because delivering those voting packets means our usual work will have to be stopped and that just means more work later. There is a question of extra pay, and we were promised it but so far nothing specific has been said. I heard 3 different versions but nothing official. We will be delivering the packets as a committee of 2 people, one postman and one other worker. Some people here are talking about protesting and that means we won't have enough manpower.
As I was typing this I got a message from my boss that she needs to send to the directors a committee composition tomorrow lol.


Bernd 04/27/2020 (Mon) 05:51:10 [Preview] No.36309 del
I can't add much to the discussion about Bolsonaro but it seems to me he's getting into a nice pickle. Storm clouds are coming. Is there a possible "pretender" around? Rival in his own faction? How strong the opposition?

Found something interesting I didn't know about.
European Citizens' Initiative
https://europa.eu/citizens-initiative/home_en
Basically it's a way to influence EU legislation through grassroot movements or astroturf it if someone has the capacity, upstairs ofc I'm breddy sure they do it. Peeps can make these initiatives and can gather signatures for their cause. These can be added via a form. When they reach 1 million signatures and the threshold is reached in 7 EU countries, the initiative will be discussed by the Commission and the Parliament and maybe they make it into a law. Chances are pretty slim I would say, but not nil, possibility is open, worth trying.
Right now there's nine ongoing initiatives. What I came across was this one:
https://europa.eu/citizens-initiative/initiatives/details/2019/000007_en
It's about how national but not independent regions could get direct funding from EU and spend it any way they, like independently from their countries' policies. Here is its website:
http://www.nationalregions.eu/
And here's the form:
https://eci.ec.europa.eu/010/public/#/initiative
As of now it's largely supported by Hungarians, since it helps Székelyföld in Transylvania, maybe can be a step toward autonomy if we look at the big picture, but other regions in the EU would benefit, such as Catalonia, Wales, Frisia, or Corsica.
Now, I can't ask EU citizen Bernds to support this particular one, and share it with others and I don't. Bernd should make up his own mind if he thinks it's a good idea personally, or for his nation. Weigh if it fits into his own views.
And there are other initiatives. Maybe Bernd will find one he thinks he can get behind.
It's not a miracle switch to solve problems instantaneously, but it's a tool it can be used.


Bernd 04/27/2020 (Mon) 05:53:55 [Preview] No.36312 del
>>36309
I'm Hungarobernd. My ball doesn't show up for some reason.


Bernd 04/27/2020 (Mon) 12:32:39 [Preview] No.36320 del
>>36312
No! I am hungrobernd!


Bernd 04/27/2020 (Mon) 16:08:35 [Preview] No.36332 del
>>36320
No I!


Bernd 04/27/2020 (Mon) 23:25:29 [Preview] No.36343 del
(188.94 KB 1920x1080 Rodrigo Maia.jpg)
>>36309
>Is there a possible "pretender" around? Rival in his own faction? How strong the opposition?
His nemesis is Rodrigo Maia, president of the Chamber of Deputies, who can rally an opposition from 3 sources:
-The old guard of Brasília, of which he is a representative: traditional parties of the center and right as well as the Supreme Court.
-A parliamentary minority of liberals, libertarians and others who have tried to distance themselves from the old guard, support Lava Jato and draw politically conscious voters.
-Often overlapping with the previous, former Bolsonaro allies who broke with him. Most were opportunists who latched on to his initially tiny circle when they saw his power, but ideology and/or lack of concession led them to break away. A huge section of Bolsonaro's allies have already defected.

In addition the media will support a center and right of center political offensive against the President. There's also the left which is loud but small and not allied with Maia. Besides the ideological gap, Moro's exit might have pleased them, as well as some of the old center.
If Maia can frame Bolsonaro and rally a strong enough base he might impeach him, but to attain power himself he'd have to impeach both President and VP as he's second in the line of succession. If Bolsonaro alone is toppled Mourão would make a lot of concessions but it would not be a complete defeat to the Bolsonaro camp.
Bolsonaro makes enemies with everyone, in a way a moral thing as there's less bribery involved, but also a stubborn way to rule which doesn't bear fruit unless he uses it to seize more power; so far it only led to a loss of power. He tries to rely on popular pressure but a lot of his voters picked him to defeat his opponent, not because of himself, and are now apathetic. He has a core base including engaged political activists, much like the Worker's Party, but that has also lost its strength. His most hardcore supporters now became Moro haters but many others are disappointed with how it turned out.


Bernd 04/30/2020 (Thu) 14:59:18 [Preview] No.36393 del
Supreme Court judge Moraes suspended the new pick for Federal Police director, Ramagem. Meanwhile Bolsonaro is buying himself a base by handing out posts to members of the center.


Bernd 05/03/2020 (Sun) 01:37:01 [Preview] No.36494 del
Today Moro entered the Federal Police building in Curitiba to depose of political interference in the institution and began to speak at about 14:30. It's 22:36 and there are no news of him finishing, only that pizza was requested.


Bernd 05/03/2020 (Sun) 01:48:34 [Preview] No.36495 del
And it's over. It took 8 hours.


Bernd 05/03/2020 (Sun) 16:00:09 [Preview] No.36503 del
>>36343
>>36393
How does it look like? Will Bolsonaro serve through his term? Well, if you have to guess.

>>36494
>>36495
>pizza
What was the topping I wonder. Is pineapple popular in the higher echelons of politics?


Bernd 05/03/2020 (Sun) 21:25:35 [Preview] No.36512 del
>>36503
It's hard to guess. An impeachment is by design difficult to pull off, and even the opposition may not bother to set one in motion if the crisis doesn't cross a certain threshold. Mourão won't organize Bolsonaro's fall himself, that would fall to Maia. For Maia unseating both Bolsonaro and Mourão to get himself the throne is harder than unseating Bolsonaro alone and getting concessions from Mourão. Bolsonaro is buying support in the center. But if it comes down to parliamentary negotiation ability Maia wins.


Bernd 05/04/2020 (Mon) 05:42:53 [Preview] No.36524 del
>>36512
Is there a talk about impeachment in the media? What are the chances it's just imitation of the US? I'm thinking that Bolsonaro was called the Brazilian Trump, so might be they just took over this impeachment nonsense from the US because that was a popular topic there.


Bernd 05/04/2020 (Mon) 12:35:00 [Preview] No.36526 del
>>36524
>Is there a talk about impeachment in the media?
A lot of talk right now.
>What are the chances it's just imitation of the US?
It's an imitation of Dilma, not Trump.


Bernd 05/04/2020 (Mon) 14:05:26 [Preview] No.36528 del
>>36526
Oh yeah, they did her. Her VP was from the opposition or from the same coalition? How about current VP?


Bernd 05/04/2020 (Mon) 16:19:33 [Preview] No.36532 del
>>36528
Dilma's VP was Temer, from the center which until 2015 was the left's coalition partner. Around 2015 the center saw Dilma was weak, switched to the opposition, overthrew her minority government and enlisted the right as its coalition partner.
Right now Bolsonaro's VP is ideologically aligned with him and not part of Maia's faction.


Bernd 05/04/2020 (Mon) 18:36:09 [Preview] No.36536 del
>>36532
And since Mourao doesn't busy himself with impeaching Bolsonaro, and impeaching only Bolsonaro wouldn't change much on the big picture, both should have to go, but that's a harder walnut.
I guess then, an "attack" will depend on if Maia can make a deal with the VP. And even then, it isn't sure it would succeed, a very solid case needed to be built up - I assume - to make the impeachment happen. And for that it is very important that the key people in the justice system play for the right team. How's the new police director and justice minister? Are they the men of Bolsonaro?


Bernd 05/04/2020 (Mon) 21:07:21 [Preview] No.36541 del
>>36536
>I guess then, an "attack" will depend on if Maia can make a deal with the VP
He doesn't even need to make a deal, if Mourão is given the fait accompli of an impeachment he will have no choice but to compromise and make concessions.
>And for that it is very important that the key people in the justice system play for the right team.
The Supreme Court would side with Maia.
>How's the new police director and justice minister? Are they the men of Bolsonaro?
They're loyal. He had the authority to do this, it just came at a political price.


Bernd 05/08/2020 (Fri) 20:15:29 [Preview] No.36612 del
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Huh, the black automobile can come for me any minute nao.
https://www.politico.eu/article/hungary-no-longer-a-democracy-report/
This is so stupid. While I also agree that this period should have clearly defined expiry date, Orbán and co. touched nothing which wasn't related to managing this "crisis". Our "independent" media is breddy gud pointing out abuse, but not much around. Beside the usual corruption.
With their 2/3 majority they can pretty much do anything anyway.

For later read I put this here:
https://www.politico.eu/article/poland-polish-schrodinger-presidential-election-pis-law-and-justice-andrzej-duda-jaroslaw-kaczynski/
Election in Polan arriving fast. Or maybe not?


Bernd 05/09/2020 (Sat) 14:46:30 [Preview] No.36620 del
>>36286
>>royal
It's a nickname for all the important branches of state owned companies here. Similarly "of the treasury".

>>36286
>>36612
On political level this circus with the election, is a storm in the chamberpot, blew out of proportion. It will be held when it can be. It will be postponed by a couple of months, so what. It's just something to be very concerned of, something that politicians can pretend they very much busy with, this question is important so they are important.
What I don't get, how cannot be this set up electronically. Vote over the internets. People are worried about AI and virtuality, and implanted microchips via vaccination, and surveillance... they can't even organize a fuckin election. Srsly.

https://wybory.gov.pl/prezydent2020/


Bernd 05/10/2020 (Sun) 20:50:56 [Preview] No.36649 del
good doc about argentina

https://youtube.com/watch?v=Eu_0o9OtCDw [Embed]


Bernd 05/10/2020 (Sun) 21:09:53 [Preview] No.36651 del
>>36649
Unfucking South American countries is an unsolvable puzzle.
Gonna try to watch that in the next couple of days.


Bernd 05/12/2020 (Tue) 12:56:01 [Preview] No.36695 del
Valeixo testified. He said he did not hear from Bolsonaro of scrutinizing any specific investigation and thus cannot accuse him of political interference, and also that his dismissal came with Bolsonaro's insistence because the President desired a Director with affinity to him, and yet his exit from his post had to be officially registered as having been by his own will. Discourses aligned with the President claim the first part of this as a triumph but the second shows he lied about Valeixo's dismissal having been by his own will.


Bernd 05/12/2020 (Tue) 15:07:49 [Preview] No.36697 del
>>36695
I think this will be enough to keep Bolsonaro afloat. The second part isn't too problematic. Media can chew it a little but not really dangerous.


Bernd 05/15/2020 (Fri) 19:54:16 [Preview] No.36753 del
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Panic in Liberaland.
https://www.politico.eu/article/german-court-lays-down-eu-law/
https://www.politico.eu/article/german-judges-take-ecb-fight-to-court-of-public-opinion/
The German Constitutional Court basically overruled the Court of Justice of the European Union. The question in itself seems important, but I know very little about it (it's monetary politics). I haven't even read these articles in their entirety, I just copypasted them here as a reference.
This decision the German Court made, has an interesting side effect, which switched the Hungarian liberal media into panic mode. One of their chief source of satisfaction that the EU Court of Justice make decisions against Hungary and the Hungarian government. Most recent example of their gloating over the reprimand over how Hungary handles the migrant question. Now with the German example (placing national laws before EU laws) in front of them, they are afraid that Orbán will make the Hungarian Supreme Court (Kúria), or even our Constitutional Court to rule over decisions coming from the EU.
Great hope of the opposition that the EU will somehow remove Fidesz from power (since themselves are incapable of that), they are constantly lobbying for the intervention of Brussels (or in case of Court of Justice, Luxembourg). Or if they can't at least hamper and penalize Hungary as much as they can. Now Orbán might be able to just shrug things off.


Bernd 05/16/2020 (Sat) 18:10:53 [Preview] No.36774 del
>>36753
>eu doing anything to remove fidesz

EU benefits greatly from having a mini-dictatorship in Europe that they can offload dirty work onto. Same reason that Brussels doesn't ultimately care too much that Poland is slipping into authoritarianism.


Bernd 05/16/2020 (Sat) 18:17:22 [Preview] No.36776 del
>>36774
Yeah, it's a possibility, that they use Orbán and the others as an outlet, or even experimenting with not that liberal democracies.


Bernd 06/28/2020 (Sun) 20:23:32 [Preview] No.38127 del
Polan had presidential election today. Candidates needed 505 for a win. Since noone reached that second round will come up between the first two:
1. Duda
2. Trzaskowski
I hope Duda wins coz it can be spelled easier. Btw he is backed by the ruling party (right wing, conservative), the other guy is the candidate of the major opposing party, which is apparently a liberal-conservative one, member of EPP.


Bernd 06/28/2020 (Sun) 20:23:57 [Preview] No.38128 del


Bernd 06/28/2020 (Sun) 20:51:19 [Preview] No.38129 del
Maybe its a way of controlling flow of people. Both hungary and poland has a big border fence. Perhaps its a way of keeping people inside.


Bernd 06/29/2020 (Mon) 05:16:09 [Preview] No.38143 del
(79.09 KB 1250x724 Orban_arc.jpg)
>>38129
Not entirely unplausible.


Bernd 06/29/2020 (Mon) 06:54:13 [Preview] No.38146 del
>>38129
>keeping people inside
inside of eu. Forgot to mention that.

Fences, walls are most often used to keep people inside, even though the popular perception is that its to keep intruders out.


Bernd 07/14/2020 (Tue) 20:32:16 [Preview] No.38610 del
So how a President can be elected among the opposition if the Parliament votes on his person and it's not up to popular election?
I don't know in what other countries Presidents are picked by the legislative body, but we can take a look at Hungary.
But a caveat: here the President is weak, so to speak, the authority, the power of the position is narrow, more like a figurehead, a symbol of national unity and such. Not sure how would play out to elect a President with strong powers by the parliament. The US has this weird electorate system, which is basically a combination or rather a compromise between popular and legislative votes.

First thing first, a shortlist of our Presidents:
Göncz Árpád - 1990-1995, 1995-2000
Mádl Ferenc - 2000-2005
Sólyom László - 2005-2010
Schmitt Pál - 2010-2012
Kövér László - 2012-2012 - was for a month, acting temporarily, more later at his part.
Áder János - 2012-2017, 2017-2022(?)


Bernd 07/14/2020 (Tue) 20:34:33 [Preview] No.38611 del
(3.47 MB 3398x3752 Göncz-Árpád.jpg)
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Göncz Árpád (1990-2000)
The translator (the second one actually) of The Lord of the Rings. Sentenced for life after the 1956 Revolution and War of Independence, but as the system thawed, he got amnesty. Before that was a member of a national conservative agrarian party, after that he wasn't allowed into politics for a long time, this led to him to writing and translating. Several of his works was published in the Galaktika magazine I introduced in this thread >>36876
About the end of the Kádár-era and the socialism, he became a founding member of the biggest liberal party the SZDSZ, which after the regime change ended up being the second largest party in the Parliament in 1990. First he was the Speaker of the National Assembly, then was elected as a President. But he was from the opposition, how could this happen?
After the first round of the legislative election, everything seemed possible. Between the first two parties, the MDF (conservative) and the SZDSZ, there wasn't much of a gap. There were talks about grand-coalition between them, but ideologically it wasn't really a fit. After the second round the coalition was created by the MDF, the FKgP (agrarian conservative) and KDNP (christian conservative).
Just before setting up the new government, the MDF's candidate for the Prime Ministry, Antall József, reached out to the second largest SZDSZ - which wasn't going to be a member of the governing coalition -. and formed a pact with them. Opinions on this pact widely differ, and it is fiercely debated, it's a large topic and it's impossible to sort out who is right, so I won't go into that direction. What belongs here that they voted together a number of laws, modifications of the constitution, and part of the deal the MDF let the SZDSZ giving the President, in the person of Göncz.
Additional information: this pact decided that the Prime Minister will be the central figure of the government, and the President has a lesser role.
In 1994 the SZDSZ became a junior partner in a coalition with the MSZP (socialists in name), so for his next term he was delegated by the governing parties (who had the 2/3 of the seats).
Since our Presidents are in office for 5 years per term, he become a President from the opposition in 1998, when the Fidesz could form a governing coalition after the elections (as a conservative party, they started out as a minor liberal behind the SZDSZ, back in 1990).
As far as I can tell he is widely regarded as a goodish President, he was kinda sold as a grandpa of the nation.


Mádl Ferenc (2000-2005)
A jurist (not a practicing lawyer or a judge, but a researcher and professor), member of Hungarian Academy of Sciences. Was minister without portfolio, then Minister of Education, in the first cabinet, from 1990-1994. He was the opposition candidate for Presidency in 1995, he had to wait to 2000, when the FKgP - a minor coalition partner of the Fidesz - nominated him for the position. He could run for the second term, but he called pass.
As a President he felt... flat, grey, not noteworthy. He is bad looking and spoke weird. He wasn't picked for this barely of a position for his high Charisma stat.


Bernd 07/14/2020 (Tue) 20:36:14 [Preview] No.38612 del
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Sólyom László (2005-2010)
Again a jurist, professor, member of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences, and as I already wrote member of the Constitutional Court. Sounds serious. I remember the media depicted him an a good light and generally everyone was ok with him. Originally a founding member of the MDF, but when he was appointed into the Constitutional Court he gave up all of his offices and quit the party as well. He was elected to president of the CC.
When he got his position as a Head of State he was unofficially nominated by an NGO, which, I dunno, does stuff, they do some environmental, green activism. His official candidacy was backed by Fidesz and MDF. His election was exciting, as exciting as such can be. The election of the President is a three round process, in the first two, it needs a 2/3 to elect a new Prez, in the third a simple majority is enough. He was elected in the third, the governing parties were divided, the minor coalition partner (the SZDSZ at that time, which managed to slide down from the respectable second biggest party to a mere 5 percenter, barely in the Assembly party) didn't support anyone.
He referred to himself as an independent candidate all along.
He did some controversial stuff. He was very active sending laws to the Constitutional Court, or back to the Parliament for further discussion. Criticized the political leadership after the 2006 protests, refused to give a merit (a high one) to the socialist PM of 1994-1998, Horn Gyula, because that dude was a petty communist thug back in the Rákosi-era, who shot at the revolutionaries in 1956... He also suggested holding a new election during the 2009 governmental crisis. He was in the center of some issues in foreign relations as well. He stated he won't visit the United States as long as they fingerprint Hungarian citizens. Northern Hungary declared him a "security risk" and refused his entry to their country when he was invited to an inauguration of a statue (of king Saint Stephen).
In 2010 his mandate ended, and legislative elections came as well. Fidesz won. Civilians lobbied for his re-election. I don't know if his controversial actions meant a risk, but Orbán wanted someone more placid instead. So we arrive to...


Schmitt Pál (2010-2012)
Sportsman, won two Olympic gold medals in fencing (and some World Championships). He remained at sports for a long time was the vice-president of the International Olympic Committee, but was diplomat, ambassador in various countries.
In Hungary's politics, he started out as quasi-independent, Fidesz backed, candidate for the office of Budapest's Lord Mayor. Previously he tried to get this position, that time he sought help from the Socialist Party (MSZP), but was sent to Bern as ambassador. Then before he was elected as President, he was a member of the Europen Parliament, in the colors of Fidesz, in fact he was a vice-president in the Fidesz during those times.
In 2010 the legislative election, and the election of a new President coincided, so the freshly elected Fidesz-KDNP - backed by over the two-thirds of the seats they won - put its own man into the seat of the head of state.
However it turned out he copypasted much of his doctoral dissertation back in 1992, and after the scandal he resigned.
Absolute puppet of the Fidesz.


Bernd 07/14/2020 (Tue) 20:37:56 [Preview] No.38613 del
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Kövér László (2012 April - 2012 May)
Since Schmitt had to gone ahead of time, temporarily the Speaker of the National Assembly served as an acting President, and it was Kövér. I won't spend time on him for this reason.


Áder János (2012-)
Jurist but nothing exceptional. Basically an ancient Fideszchik, basically knows Orbán since his uni years, not a founder but entered the Fidesz very early. Vice-president of the party a couple of times. Was Speaker of the National Assembly, representative in the EU Parliament.
His election was controversial. Fidesz-KDNP with it's 2/3 did easy job. Only other party which voted was the Jobbik, all with No. Other parties did not vote or left the Assembly before the vote. Nice circus.
I think his activity is entirely scripted by the Fidesz leadership. He is very busy signing every law they put in front of him.


So that's it. The balance isn't even that bad. I'm not sure what the future holds. Right now the Fidesz holds the steering wheel firm, not sure when their hands will fall off. So they deal the cards, and their cadres get the positions.


Bernd 07/15/2020 (Wed) 05:12:44 [Preview] No.38622 del
Forgot to mention, this post >>38580 compelled me to write this little overview. I should have add more about Göncz's Presidency, a couple of events, maybe revisit him, we'll see.


Bernd 07/15/2020 (Wed) 07:34:42 [Preview] No.38623 del
president of Hungary? but Austria-Hungary has an emperor.


Bernd 07/15/2020 (Wed) 20:11:48 [Preview] No.38629 del
The Constitution contains the regulations about the President. Articles 9 to 14 deal with the question. Quite longish, I might just copypaste the whole thing here, or give a condensed version. I haven't decided yet.
Here is the whole constitution (so I can find it):
https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Hungary_2016?lang=en
After the regime change we had the Stalinist constitution with some corrections, chiefly done by the MDF-SZDSZ pact. After the pact the representatives in the Parliament spoke about creating a new one, but that didn't happen. Then the Fidesz made it's own constitution in 2011. We call it Fundamental Law. I'm really curious how the provisions about the President differ in the two. Btw, officially the President is called the 1'President of the Republic''.

>>38623
Er ist nicht mein Kaiser!


Bernd 07/15/2020 (Wed) 20:36:25 [Preview] No.38632 del
>>36217
Elect Bolsanaro they said, he'll revive the Empire they said..


Bernd 07/17/2020 (Fri) 13:40:36 [Preview] No.38652 del
>>38629
>Er ist nicht mein Kaiser!
Of course. He's your König.
>>38632
He doesn't even rule in his own family and over his sons.


Bernd 07/17/2020 (Fri) 14:54:53 [Preview] No.38653 del
>>38652
Wasn't election nor coronation.
I wonder who else got some blood of the Árpáds.


Bernd 09/04/2020 (Fri) 19:44:38 [Preview] No.39769 del
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you can't make this shit up


Bernd 11/01/2020 (Sun) 21:16:17 [Preview] No.40827 del
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US presidential election incoming on Tuesday. Finally it will be over soon. Then comes the usual hysteria, probably with further demonstrations.
Like the last time, media predicts Trumps loss, but that means nothing in itself, like the last time.
We'll see.


Bernd 11/03/2020 (Tue) 06:48:05 [Preview] No.40841 del
>>40827
Ok. Peeps vote today, but I think there are changes due covid or something, I don't follow have to read about it. Since it's an indirect system, they vote for the electors, who then vote for the person of the President (and VP). Not sure how long will this take, and when we're gonna get the final result, sure it's not today or tomorrow, about this, I also have to gather info.


Bernd 11/03/2020 (Tue) 17:09:28 [Preview] No.40845 del
(1.00 MB 1200x869 vote-here.jpg)
Here's Ballotpedia:
https://ballotpedia.org/Presidential_election,_2020
Abundance of information, like "Battleground states" which means swing states (states not committed to either party) just sounds more dramatic.
It lists the hot issues (and links the stands of the candidates on them): abortion, criminal justice, economy, education, energy and environmental issues, foreign policy, gun regulation, healthcare, immigration, impeachment, labor, and trade. Not sure what labor is about, the others, I can guess.
It also says the Electoral College will cast their votes in mid-December... so whatever will be the result of this day, the agony will go on for over an months. If Trump gets the majority of the votes now (actually they vote on the Electoral College, no?) probably everyone expects chimpouts.

Heh:
>How and when are election results finalized?
>Election results are finalized through processes called canvassing and certification.
>The certification deadline in six states is within one week of the election.
>In 26 states and the District of Columbia, the certification deadline is between November 10 and November 30.
>In 14 states, the certification deadline is in December.
>Four states (Hawaii, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Tennessee) do not have statutory deadlines for results certification.
So we might not even know the result tomorrow. However surely they'll give something to the media and the people, which will be close to the final results, similarly to exit polls.


Bernd 11/04/2020 (Wed) 01:43:50 [Preview] No.40849 del
>>40845
I expect both sides to chimp out one way or another. Though hopefully they'll get bored with waiting.
This is kinda shit though. Would have been nicer to get the thing over in one night. A good chunk of the english net's going to be even more unuseable for weeks.


Bernd 11/04/2020 (Wed) 12:53:13 [Preview] No.40852 del
Cliffhanger, very possibly Biden wins with the remaining states.


Bernd 11/04/2020 (Wed) 16:19:41 [Preview] No.40854 del
>>40849
I have to change that hat if Biden wins. Maybe to the blue KC ones.

>>40852
Read it might depend on the mail voters.


Bernd 11/04/2020 (Wed) 16:46:25 [Preview] No.40855 del
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Huh.
https://ballotpedia.org/What_happens_if_a_presidential_candidate_declares_victory_in_the_2020_election_before_results_are_final
>Predictions about a blue shift in election results
This says:
According to the blue shift thesis, Democratic voters are more likely to use provisional ballots than Republican voters. A provisional ballot is one that is only counted after the voter's eligibility to vote is verified. Because provisional ballots can be counted after election night, according to this picture, Democratic candidates tend to make greater gains after election night than Republican candidates do.
So basically these provisional ballots will largely decide who winsin which states from those we're still waiting for to be counted.


Bernd 11/05/2020 (Thu) 06:46:31 [Preview] No.40863 del
Biden seemed to secure Michigan and Wisconsin, which means in the rest of the yet undecided states (Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada, Alaska) Trump has to win to get reelected, and Biden only needs Nevada's backing to get the 270 electorates needed for the presidency.
Now, what I don't know if the electors have to vote in December according to this result we're getting sometimes hopefully soon? But then, why they need to vote at all? Have to look this up too.


Bernd 11/06/2020 (Fri) 01:08:48 [Preview] No.40879 del
Lots of hurt feelings in these past few hours.


Bernd 11/06/2020 (Fri) 06:47:35 [Preview] No.40881 del
(1.62 MB 1380x1412 rt-20201106.png)
>>40879
I read there's some chimpouts already.

This shit is ridiculous, rt's front page down to the "Sports" section.
I mean yeah it supposed to be an important event (it really less important than they blow up to be), but this isn't an American news site, and stuff did not stop happening about the world.


Bernd 11/06/2020 (Fri) 12:06:14 [Preview] No.40882 del
>>40881
Damn.
The police have their hands full with magapedes now. The boys in blue have had a tough year.


Bernd 11/06/2020 (Fri) 23:31:22 [Preview] No.40891 del
>>40855
While I don't generally believe in the 4D chess meme that follows the old man, part of me thinks that his encouragement of live voting versus mail-in was a calculated move. Like he expected a wave of Dem mail voters and wanted his share segregated so as to make the wave as steep as possible.
If he wins then he just wins. If he loses he can point at the spikes and that galvanizes his mooks to get mad at something. Still, this is embarrassing on his part.


Bernd 11/07/2020 (Sat) 06:28:03 [Preview] No.40892 del
This is so slow.
Wouldn't be the benefit of mail voting, that it can be sent prior to voting day, and they can be just mixed in the the normal votes? I read they even have that practice.


Bernd 11/07/2020 (Sat) 09:29:13 [Preview] No.40894 del
Obviously it's deliberately slow. I think the purpose is to soften the blow and encourage acceptance. Not only they were slow, they stopped and started every day, there was dilly-dallying avoiding to give definitive answers, they tried to spread out the subtotal reports (if they counted 100k A votes, they waited to count some 20k B votes and published them in chunks, interspersing them), they waited until late in the night to publish 'interesting' reports (overtake in Georgia was published at 4 am central), etc. The polarization is close to complete and there's been riots, arson and murder in the streets for months up until some weeks ago, so this overstretched process was probably designed.


Bernd 11/07/2020 (Sat) 16:01:41 [Preview] No.40897 del
>>40894
>soften the blow and encourage acceptance
If they're doing that they might have to wait years, judging by how some people took the 2016 election. Only now the other side's going to be plagued by their own derangement syndrome. I'm of the idea that they'll drop the results at the start of the week, in the hopes that potential rioters are too busy working.


Bernd 11/07/2020 (Sat) 16:51:47 [Preview] No.40898 del
Well never mind that, it's ogre.


Bernd 11/07/2020 (Sat) 17:01:28 [Preview] No.40899 del
>>40898
Yeah, Biden won. And as I saw last time the Democrats stood better in Congress seats and the two party were head to head for the Senate ones. I guess, they won those seats too. Gonna check somewhere. These news site are so shit, and very capable in hiding the facts behind flashy headlines and irrelevant bs.


Bernd 11/07/2020 (Sat) 18:13:14 [Preview] No.40900 del
Just hope Biden doesn't take a hostile and destructive attitude towards us because of the blue bar.


Bernd 11/07/2020 (Sat) 18:17:49 [Preview] No.40901 del
>>40900
I guess those with "green" agenda support Democrats. What they will do depends on the strength of the lobby and expectations.


Bernd 12/05/2020 (Sat) 19:01:06 [Preview] No.41342 del
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Musing about this situation with Szájer.
Besides that he looks like a typical caricature in Der Stürmer it really shows how hard to find reliable people, with acceptable morality, whom are knowledgeable at least in one thing, and capable of taking action. This guy is a slick operator, 60 years old spent most of his life building the Fidesz, participating at such important moves like the creation of the new constitution, and his career was torpedoed because he couldn't control himself and his urges. Now he is smeared all over the road of politics and the Fidesz can't do much just step over and pretend nothing happened and continue with whatever they do nowadays.
And this the thing with politics. It is impossible to run a party without the liability humans and their shortcomings mean. The best they can do is keeping them hushed up, pretending they don't even exist, then keeping head held high without shame when some of it floats to the surface like a big fat turd. Starting media campaign to parry media attacks and derail the smear campaign.
Simple honest people with good-ish moral compasses can't do this. You have to be a special kind of a villain.
And you need accomplices for your act. And generally they'll be useless. Purely ambition won't make them reliable (just unreliable), smart, knowledgeable, capable of action, or in short: useful. Mostly you'll get dead weight who always want something from you, and who will be careless, and lazy. How to make a new force that would capable of changing things with this material? You can be the most honest and straight person, the cleanest ever, but you need to know that the next one - even the most benevolent - will have something that could turn over your boat.


Bernd 12/06/2020 (Sun) 12:11:40 [Preview] No.41355 del
What Bernd thinks, how could one end in politics nowadays?
I can see a couple of ways.
Like being a huge fanboy of a party or another, so the peep signs up and plays lackey for a long time. If he has any real ambition, he will grab opportunities and become a functionary within a party and maybe the higher ups will give him a position in the state bureaucracy if the party won an election or something.
Or maybe via local activism, starts out as someone who gets enough from the incompetence of the local politicians and stagnation of his immediate patria. And takes action doing something by himself, raises awareness, glues stencils upon lampposts about the issues. Exploits social media, draws attention to the problems, narrowcasts his ideas of change. Maybe he does this in some funny or outrageous way, so even the media notices, making a country-wide news out of him and his initiative. Various joke parties would fit the bill, like the Hungarian Two-tailed Dog Party.
What else?


Bernd 12/06/2020 (Sun) 12:23:09 [Preview] No.41356 del
>>41355
Most politicians (particularly here) don't start out as politicians, they are lawyers, bankers and such for a while and then they enter politics almost on the side in many cases. I don't think many important politicians do come from ground up movements or even from a position where they join a large party at a young age whilst having no education and hope to just climb the ladder like that, it does not seem to work. Politics is a game for the rich and connected.


Bernd 12/06/2020 (Sun) 12:29:20 [Preview] No.41357 del
>>41356
That is a good point.
One can be a person with a reputation of some level in his locality, with connections on the side he made during his career. Most likely not even to one party, but several. Since he already known by a considerable percentage of the people, he will be a person of interest in those parties, someone to get hold onto. He could use one of the parties to get into politics and the party could use him to gain support and get votes. A marriage made in heaven.
More?


Bernd 12/06/2020 (Sun) 12:32:02 [Preview] No.41358 del
>>41356
Btw lots of politicians doesn't have political education (in political science, the can get it later), here too, many of them starts out with degree in law.
The ones with degree in political science are often used as payed experts, to consult, or to make eggsbert sounding reasoning for a purposed law or something.


Bernd 12/06/2020 (Sun) 17:11:06 [Preview] No.41360 del
wont be any politicians when communitarianism is fully implemented. technocracy and ai will do the rest.


Bernd 12/06/2020 (Sun) 20:18:50 [Preview] No.41366 del
Romania is holding a parliamentary election today. Besides the RMDSZ (Demcratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania, the acronym is UDMR in Romanian) I know next to nothing about the parties of Romania so here goes what I found in short notice.
The Romanian parliament is a bicameral one and they are electing the deputies into the Chamber of Deputies. The fate of 329 seats is getting decided.
Largest party is PSD, social democrats, which apparent means little nowadays, since they seem to be somewhat nationalist and euro-skeptic. Wikipee says:
>Political position: Catch-all
Heh. They were close to 50% last time,
Next is PNL, the "National Liberal Party", they are sitting in the EPP with Fidesz in the EU Parliament, liberal conservatives.
And now we arrived to the small ones.
USR, or the Save Romania Union. Liberal progressive party. They are running as 2020 USR-PLUS Alliance with another group.
UDMR or RMDSZ how we call it, besides representing the minority Hungarian interest, they are aligned along the Fidesz, liberal conservatives (and such member of EPP). Read just before our foreign minister, Szijjártó Petya, campaigned for them, in a form of recorded phone calls. They called Romanian peeps too generating some butthurt, actually rightfully, me thinks.
ALD, Alliance of Liberals and Democrats. They represent conservative liberalism and social liberalism. They merged with PRO Romania Social Liberal for the election.
The last one worth mentioning is the People's Movement Party or PMP. It's a little party, lil PuMP. They are Christian democrats I guess. Hmm, they support union with Moldova. Interdasting.

>>41360
Well, make sure to end up as technocrat.


Bernd 12/07/2020 (Mon) 00:19:58 [Preview] No.41369 del
>>41342
Not to mention party leaders may not ditch a scandal-prone operator unless they have strong evidence of his misgivings, as the party is a bureaucracy and thus has a strong incentive to prioritize keeping the machine running by conserving a quality cog.


Bernd 12/07/2020 (Mon) 00:51:57 [Preview] No.41370 del
>>41360
Sounds good.


Bernd 12/07/2020 (Mon) 06:52:51 [Preview] No.41373 del
>>41369
Oh yeah, good cadres are hard to come by. Especially those who can do stuff by themselves and don't need babysitting. Better to use him to build as much as he can, getting some flak because of him later will be less damaging on the long run, it just needs to tough it out.
Which makes me think: what was the doing in Brussels. Our parties tend to send their most useless cunts there, like Deutsch Tamás (also from Fidesz). Maybe Szájer was less useful nowadays, or maybe he was doing something important.
Or - if I want to go a paranoid direction - maybe his party itself wanted him gone, but if they's initiated they might have spilled the beans, he must now a lot, so he needed to compromise himself, so they could say: "you have to go and make it look like it's your decision". A little faggotry and drug abuse doesn't mean much for the voters I think, many Fidesz voters aren't Fidesz supporters just don't want the other side to win. They got enough of the "socialists" and the liberals and from certain people (chiefly Gyurcsány, previous PM) on the opposition. And Jobbik is/was too radical, and now they are considered as turncoats by many for cooperating with the left-libs. Also the Mi Hazánk is too radical again. I think in 2022 still the Fidesz will win.


Bernd 12/07/2020 (Mon) 06:56:57 [Preview] No.41374 del
>>41342
I would never trust anyone with a nose like that


Bernd 12/07/2020 (Mon) 06:58:12 [Preview] No.41375 del
>>41374
You can open a door with that kinda knob.


Bernd 12/08/2020 (Tue) 18:04:34 [Preview] No.41422 del
>>41366
Turnout was awful, only 31,84%. This covid circus might have something to do with it, I don't know how Romanians are disenchanted with politics in general.

I can't really find source with 100% of votes counted so I can only write estimates, but the ranking is clear.
PSD ~30%
PNL ~25,5%
USR-PLUS ~15,5%
AUR ~9%
RMDSZ (UDMR) ~6% (probably little below)
These parties reached the threshold of 5% for sure. I read that for PMP and PRO Romania that's just a little out of reach. I also read PMP did make it, barely, but did. Will see.

A probable setup for government is a coalition of PNL, USR-PLUS, and UDMR; if PMP is in then them too. The thing is that noone wants to make coalition with PSD (or AUR) so they could only govern if they got over half of the votes. (Actually less than 50% of the votes because they need the seats, and that will be decided after they "reweigh" the votes. Anyway.)

The unexpected black horse is the AUR, compared to themselves (they are new and small) it's a huge win. They are a nationalist bunch, with a program that includes the unification of Romania and Moldova. I think their logo is breddy well thought out, including their neighbouring republic both in Romania and in EU. Also yellow and black together are impressive colors. Too bad they are extremely anti-Hungarian. Oh well.
Their sudden popularity partially can be thanked for the Romanian emigres. About 3 million Romanian disappeared from Romania, they chiefly work and live in western EU now and AUR is very supported among them. Even their leader George Simion founded his movement in England. About 25% of AUR votes are gastarbeiter vote. Another factor is the low turnout, this always favors the smaller and/or radical parties since their supporters generally are more resolute - I suppose this helped RMDSZ as well.

Huh, I can kinda recall Moldova also had elections recently. Some grill won or something, no?

I also couldn't really find a chart or a map, this sucks.


Bernd 12/10/2020 (Thu) 07:49:46 [Preview] No.41464 del
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>>41422
>Huh, I can kinda recall Moldova also had elections recently. Some grill won or something, no?

Yes, and she (Sandu) causes some shitstorm in Russian media, because old pro-Russian candidate (Dodon) lost completely. Now media in small-scale "Ukrainian mode", i.e. "evil nato eurogays are evil, and Moldova is their new outpost".

Pridnestrovie was forgotten for long time, but now it is in the news again.


Bernd 12/10/2020 (Thu) 08:08:29 [Preview] No.41465 del
>>41464
Moldova is lightyears from entering EU - even Russia would enter EU before them - so no real worries there.
It's a bit odd to see a woman emerging as a leader instead some old party-soldier, and/or mafioso, and/or alcoholic cleptocrat. It creates the illusion that things can change, especially if he has different program as the previous guys. Also maybe it adds the "here comes mommy and change your diaper you shitted full" vibes.
>Pridnestrovie was forgotten for long time
I always forget about it too.


Bernd 12/10/2020 (Thu) 13:50:11 [Preview] No.41469 del
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>>41464
>>41464
>Moldova is their new outpost


Bernd 12/11/2020 (Fri) 19:19:18 [Preview] No.41491 del
https://thenewdaily.com.au/life/tech/2020/12/10/dutton-surveillance-bill-australia/

Australia to pass surveillance bill that'll allow children as young as 14 to be interrogated by government agents and could see journalists jailed for 5 years for refusing to reveal sources. Authorities could hack, secretly takeover, and add, copy, and delete material on computers.


Bernd 12/12/2020 (Sat) 15:11:23 [Preview] No.41515 del
And the youtube link:
https://youtube.com/watch?v=Rs4abu01dVI [Embed]


Bernd 12/12/2020 (Sat) 15:18:14 [Preview] No.41518 del
Nobody replied to my thread so it probably doesn't matter that it was moved here...

Anyway, I should have mentioned before, this is the interactive map website thing that breaks down the aspects of the Power Index.

https://power.lowyinstitute.org/


Bernd 12/12/2020 (Sat) 15:26:19 [Preview] No.41519 del
>>41518
I need time to watch at least some of the video.
The power balance in the Pacific is an important matter, but since it's politics, I think it fits here tight.


Bernd 12/13/2020 (Sun) 11:51:56 [Preview] No.41533 del
https://www.csmonitor.com/Business/The-Adam-Smith-Institute-Blog/2011/0102/European-nations-begin-seizing-private-pensions

fasinating development. I thought poland hungary was more at the right spectrum of politics.


Bernd 12/13/2020 (Sun) 15:11:53 [Preview] No.41544 del
>>41533
Yeah, had that from 1998 - opened by the Socialist govt. - to 2012, when the Fidesz govt. gulped it down to keep the budget in balance. Such cases.


Bernd 12/13/2020 (Sun) 15:44:21 [Preview] No.41550 del
>>41544
I suspect it will be like when rome fell and diocletian more and more taxation until it becomes absurd

https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/there-are-just-nine-steps-from-freedom-to-socialism-to-societal-breakdown


Bernd 12/13/2020 (Sun) 20:13:58 [Preview] No.41585 del
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>>41550
That article.
>EU is socialist
I really like how American liberals define socialism.


Bernd 12/14/2020 (Mon) 16:25:12 [Preview] No.41591 del
>>41515
>>41518
Looking into that. Starts good:
>reminder that legitimacy and leadership on the world stage begins with the capacity of leaders to govern well at home


Bernd 12/14/2020 (Mon) 19:34:12 [Preview] No.41592 del
>>41515
>>41518
Okay, so the sound quality was awful, two of them had bad accent was hard to understand, the old guy I could have understand fine but his part was way too quiet.
Anyway their conversations isn't that very interesting, the stats and the site is more like it.
I'm not sure if the trends can be extended very much to the future, so I'm not sure if Australia will be The Superpower of the Pacific soon or at all. I find Vietnam's growth more exciting.
On the apropos of our non-Japanese Japanese occasional visitor - and his open hatred of Korea - I do think counterbalancing China can only be done by cooperation of the "smaller" powers, and India has to be included in that. Maybe Australia can have a leading place in this.
Also probably it would also be important not to tear Asia in half, and set up two power blocks, one centered around China, and the other that oppose this one, but keeping in touch with the small countries that might gravitate toward China.
Also I hear conflicting opinions about China, on one hand she is still scary and people are noting her potential to grow more strong, on the other people try dismiss her power which based on various economic trickery, inflated via public fundings, building the ghost cities and such. I dunno about China, but EU and the US are loosing pace, it seems to me. Especially the EU looks like a farce, the US still has Silicon Valley.


Bernd 12/20/2020 (Sun) 12:10:46 [Preview] No.41696 del
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>>41157
Gülenism:

An American backed, Gladio-cultivated group inserted during the 80's coup as a fundamentalist religious cult neck deep in espionage, crime, assassination, extortion, terrorism, coup, social engineering and ideological indoctrination. Their ties with CIA has long been proven, if not explicitly disclosed by the USA itself.

This is the group that have been working tooth and nail to bring down the secular republic, the very foundation of Turkey. Republicanism in Turkey is not a political perspective, it's one of the main bodies of how the state works. Gulenists have been working for decades to bring down that pillar. Not only they are against the main existence of Turkey itself, but they act as pawns of the US. They remove their opponents, extort large business owners, get paid from very dark sources, insert their people into everywhere, from American colleges to Turkish state institutions. Lately I even heard about them having part in recruiting to isis.

When I say assassination I'm not exaggerating. The word itself is probably too light to describe the violent ways they use to get rid of journalists and political figures that often brought out their crap into the public. They also had a play in the assassination of the military researchers/engineers that take place in Turkey frequently, much like the assassination of Iranian scientists. They can hide themselves as anything, from progressive islamists to Turkish nationalists. In truth they serve to nothing but global neoliberalism and their own inner monstrosities.

They mostly based upon "moderate islam though" Moderate enough to be consumarist, pro-american laptog, islamist enough to be jihadi pawns of USA. Before AKP they were infiltrating, after AKP they were specifically placed in bureucracy. Under no circumstances assume these people have any kind of patriotism, they don't they only serve themselves to suceed they serve USA.

AKP: Erdogs party. They started their journey with liboş (Turkish liberashkas, "colonial elite" people) and "moderate islamist" gülenists. They were massively pro PKK, they even called their dead equal with Turkish martryrs. The only reason why the military didn't fuck them over with coup d'etad is general staff was secretly gülenist. It was one of the reasons why the military failed to counter PKK. Because of the "don't shoot if they don't shoot against you". Many of independent sources confirm this. Eventually AKP strenghten their pro-PKK positing due to consistent and intentional military failures, with the "don't let mothers cry anymore" rhetoric. While all of these were happening, the west celebrating our democracy while our constitution were repedeatly raped.

TSK: Turkish military forces. Elite of the elites of the republic. Every state that it worths their salt has a deep state that keeps the state together, in Russia it's the intelligence, in Turkey it's the military. TSK have legal status and responsibility to protect the constitution, because common rabble won't you can trust me on that. So coups are actually LEGAL.

With Ergenekon and Balyoz kangoroo courts, the military purged worse than what happened in france during french revolution. Especially navy forces got hit so bad. It was one of the reasons why Greece so easily working on their ways to de-facto blockade us from the medditerranean and create national threat against us thanks to traitors amongst us.

Nowadays Gülenists have two proxy parties, DEVA and Gelecek party. First one targets more liberashkas and apolitical youth latter targets moderate islamists that fed up with Erdoğan (close to non existant)


Bernd 12/20/2020 (Sun) 12:11:14 [Preview] No.41697 del
>>41696

Cont

TSK is stauncly kemalists and they are the only institution that they got it right. They have pro-NATO and eurasianist officers but none of them are eager to leave NATO, it's not about liking Russia or anything like that it's just pragmatism, in 90's we had military with eurasianist tendency. Needless to say USA didn't like it when we fucked over PKK and make Abdullah Öcalan talk like a bitch. They stopped disliking our military after Iraq invasion, they started to vehemently hate it.

USA don't want us allies they want us as dominions that is checked with other dominions such as kurdistan. So of course they bitch about muh genocide even when our "invasions" are very gentle on civilian deaths. According to treaty of Laussane and international laws we have right to intervene when a non state actors (such as terrorists) run amok in next to our borders.

CHP: Atatürk's party but not so much nowadays. There are pro-PKK CIA assets in the party the most notable one is TR705. After 2010's head of CHP Deniz Baykal has forced to resign becuse he was banging a female parliment member and gülenists taped it. They replaced him with a "social democrat guy". Every secularists that has 3 digit IQ knows we are nothing without military because we're something like Ashkenazi Jews in germany(hence the "white Turks" term), without military we have no hard power so we can be easily opressed. But of course this massive retard claims they come with vote and will go with vote, he doesnt even mention about our constitution getting raped. Appereantly our constitution is there for shits and gigles and people can do everything with votes.

The parties are in Turkey are not elected by popular vote but with delagtes. Since the delagtes are alevis from Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu's hometown, they mindlessly elect him despite consistent epic fails. The guy image amongst people, even amongst CHP voters is a fucking joke.
Before AKP most of our people were secular, islamist parties at best getting %15-20 of the votes. But CHP's weak attitude and letting secularists stuck in Thrace and coastal region is the thing that let AKP stays in power. CHP especially after 2010's intentionally tried to portray Atatürk as quasi libleft figure, as you can guess most people get Atatürk wrong, CHP's voterbase amongst anatolia has been diminished because of this. In 2018 presidental elections Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu most likely betrayed Muharrem İnce, there was massive fraud going on and the guy claims the party intentionally didn't place inspectors on voting boxes.

If you don't have balls you don't get votes from outside of the coasts. Compromising in Anatolia don't work. We have autocratic mentality, these retards are disconnected from reality.


MHP: Their predecessor has been created because CHP has been deviate from nationalism and Ataturk's ideals. This what Alparslan Türkeş claims, de-facto the founder of MHP. They are islamo-turkists, even though religion and nation still clashes in this nation, so being nationalist and conservative is not a realistic option here, you'll eventually disregard one of them. But of course MHP begs to differ.

They have marginal voterbase and always been so but they used to have massively energetic youth that creates trouble for pro-soviet proxies before 80's coup. After 80's coup they were sent to prisons just like lefties because it was hard to control them.

The party has rural voterbase and populist attitude but some of the higher ups are educated enough to keep their dignity. They support de-facto elite oligarch schools for bureaucracy, I think it's one of the few things they got it right. They usually prefer USA to Russia but since it's era of eurasianists in Turkey, they just go along with the wave.


Bernd 12/20/2020 (Sun) 12:11:32 [Preview] No.41698 del
>>41697
Vatan Partisi: They got %0.22 of votes but why it is important? Because head of the party is an old KGB asset. He used to be communists but since communism is kys'd and eurasianism and EU sceptism is main ideology of Russia, he supports them. he guy used to get support of military staff that got purged with kangoroo courts but his support is kind of diminished. Massive eurasianists, openly calling to leave NATO. Despite they have meagre votes, they casually go meetings with Russia and China.
They are so eurasianists they call Uyghur Turks as terrorists and think CCP is right about them.

HDP: Pro-PKK party and don't even hide it. The only reason why they are not shut down because erdoğan scares half of the voterbase votes for CHP. They got higher votes for targeting hippie, left-liberals before that the predecessor party got %5 so they couldn't enter the parliment. Used to be Erdoğans best buddies.

İYİP: It was created as progressive MHP (dont take the word progressive as pidor WECTern word) then eventually turned into centre right since they purged elite ex military nationalists. It is rumored to become gülenist haven, but since peoples eyes have blinded by erdoğan hatred they usually disregard anything that comes from the other side.


Bernd 12/20/2020 (Sun) 12:14:04 [Preview] No.41699 del
>>41698
"Devletto Bachievelli" theory about head of MHP Devlet Bahçeli. This one is not written by me but still interesting to read.


AKP as a relatively young party most popular with rural low-income voters has always lacked the manpower needed to efficiently run the state on its own. Initially, it was the Gülen movement which provided the support in the security bureaucracy in addition to the electoral support AKP received from Kurds and liberals. This was favorable for the West as the Gülen movement is a US-based organization that wouldn't challenge Washington's interests in the region. The most obvious example is how the peace process allowed the PKK to consolidate and advance its positions before the US would begin directly supporting the PKK in Syria. This would not have been possible under the previous secularist and nationalist military establishment.

Secularists had been increasingly anti-American, especially after the Western response to the PKK conflict, the 1997 "postmodern coup," and the secularists' refusal to cooperate with the Iraq invasion. This was why the US was such a strong advocate of Turkey's EU accession process - it allowed Gülenists to fill influential positions in the security bureaucracy with thousands of its followers, and liquidate secularists from power. The Ergenekon and Balyoz trials marked the transition from Turkish secularist/nationalist control of the state to pro-US Gülenist control, while the November 2015 election with AKP and MHP aligned began a reversal process back to putting nationalists in charge.

In hindsight, some of the many early signs of AKP-Gülenist tensions slowly unfolding began with the 2010 Mavi Marmara incident, after which Fethullah Gülen gave his first ever public statement to the US press just to distance himself from the government's actions, and later more significantly in 2013, after Erdoğan planned to abolish private “prep” schools that the Gülen movement relied on for funding and new followers. Shortly after were the 2013 corruption probes, which largely targeted Halkbank for exporting gold to Iran, raising questions about whether the US was alerting Gülenists to Halkbank. It wasn't until after the fallout took place that the accused Kemalist officers in Ergenekon and Balyoz were ordered to be released in 2014. The 2015-2016 violence and timing of the 2016 coup attempt as the US was deepening its support for the PKK in Syria was another sign of the Gülen movement's close relationship with the US.

MHP's influence started growing after the June 2015 election when the peace process with the PKK was ended, and MHP continued to benefit from the AKP-Gülen rift as the July 2016 post-coup purges created a vacuum that would be filled by nationalists, leading to a total security-driven foreign policy reorientation. The fact that Erdoğan never sought MHP's support until this point speaks volumes as Gülenists are at least viewed favorably in the West and don't have a party to take votes from AKP. MHP is the opposite, and also compromises Erdoğan's Islamism. In August 2016, Operation Euphrates Shield was launched against ISIS to contain the PKK, and Aleppo was viewed as being neglected by Turkey as it fell to Assad. Further anti-PKK operations in Afrin and northeast Syria, and heavy support for Azerbaijan in Karabakh point to a nationalist priority in Turkish foreign policy. MHP supported the presidential system in 2017 to concentrate power and limit other factions from growing within the state to challenge nationalists again.


Bernd 12/20/2020 (Sun) 12:14:21 [Preview] No.41700 del
>>41699
Cont

AKP is beginning to view MHP as more of a competitor than an ally. Bahçeli forces Erdoğan further to the right, costing AKP its centrist voters to the opposition, while its right-leaning voters are increasingly favoring MHP. In the 2019 local election, MHP beat AKP in most provinces where the two fielded separate candidates. MHP's support clearly grew since the 2018 parliamentary election. Conversely, AKP's performance was much stronger than expected in the southeast.

AKP and HDP on their own are relatively compatible as both parties have mostly pious voters who believe themselves to have been oppressed under the socioethnic policies of Atatürk's republic. Erdoğan prior to 2015 was the least nationalist leader in Turkish history, and would recapture large numbers of Kurdish votes by ending his alliance with MHP, which may not be possible with nationalists now dominating the state.

Bülent Arınç recently called for the release of Osman Kavala and Selahattin Demirtaş, and soon resigned from the Presidential High Advisory Board after Bahçeli struck back. While Erdoğan publicly rejected the release of the two high-profile prisoners, some believe he's testing the waters to reset relations with Europe and find a new coalition partner.

The next CHP presidential candidate will gain the electoral support of many liberals and Kurds who in the past would have voted for AKP or other parties, while also preparing for a possible political realignment.

İmamoğlu and Yavaş are both in the spotlight as potential presidential candidates, and both are performing very well in polls against Erdoğan. If no AKP-MHP rift takes place, İmamoğlu will be CHP's presidential candidate. For economic reasons, he may not favor immediate cooperation with MHP; however, he's keeping his options open, especially if HDP fails to pass the 10% threshold. İmamoğlu has vocalized support for Turkish security interests important to MHP and even issued a respectful commemoration for Alparslan Türkeş. If tensions grow between AKP and MHP, Yavaş will be CHP's candidate, and Bahçeli will sabotage Erdoğan's presidential campaign in favor of the Yavaş-Akşener alliance.

Erdoğan gets called a dictator by clueless observers when a closer look reveals he has no more control over the state now than he did before the 2016 failed coup. Some five years since using “nationalist” as an insult, he's being held hostage by Bahçeli. Turkey has made real gains against the PKK, but at the expense of relations with the West, causing a weaker economy. MHP will not allow another peace process even if it costs Erdoğan the next presidential election. After all, Bahçeli could easily switch over to Yavaş and Akşener, two former MHP members.

tl;dr: AKP is being held hostage, and any steps in favor of realignment with liberals and Kurdish nationalists will end in Bahçeli dealing a decisive blow to the party.


Bernd 12/20/2020 (Sun) 14:21:03 [Preview] No.41701 del
https://youtube.com/watch?v=2fC7TGZirNQ [Embed]

the streetshitters are leading the way


Bernd 12/21/2020 (Mon) 14:32:23 [Preview] No.41720 del
>>41698
>>41700
Thanks for the overview


Bernd 12/21/2020 (Mon) 17:43:38 [Preview] No.41722 del
>>41696 >>41697 >>41698
>>41699 >>41700
Okay. So.
Essentially:
- AKP, CHP, MHP, HDP, and IYIP are in the National Assemply;
- Vatan Partisi isn't but has an interesting background;
- Gülenists aren't one party, but a movement which have influence in many parties;
- the Turkish Armed Forces have a great pull, due to it's prestige and power can influence everything, and potentially capable of reset the chess pieces with coup.
It wasn't very clear for me which parties represent what political ideologies or streams, but religious people tend to vote AKP, MHP, and HDP, while secularists CHP and the others. No?
Also while the state is secular, Islamist parties have large influence, even Erdo as president rides on the back of their support. Correct me here if I'm wrong.
The Kurdish minority is also large enough for parties seeking legislative role to want their support. AKP managed to get that last time, but it seems CHP is also gaining grounds.
Atatürk is generally respected by everyone, but the parties trying to exploit his popularity by explaining his work, beliefs, and character, differently to suit their own agendas.

What are the key issues in the country? I see a couple of dichotomies like: secularism vs. islamism, western orientation vs. eurasianism; but are these the issues which decides elections? How frequent phenomenon is just to voting against a person or a party, instead of actually supporting one for its program and ideology?


Bernd 12/21/2020 (Mon) 21:35:03 [Preview] No.41723 del
>>41722
>It wasn't very clear for me which parties represent what political ideologies or streams, but religious people tend to vote AKP, MHP, and HDP, while secularists CHP and the others. No?
A bit more complicated than that.

Most AKP voters nowadays drink, seem like moralist but vote due to personality cult and grateful to erdoğan because before erdoğan they were pure fucks, now they are islamic bourgeuise. At BEST %20 of of this country is real deal islamist and they mainly vote for erdo, rest of the voters vote for the reasons I stated above.

MHP also conservative and rural but again they are not islamists only seem so due to populism and rural voterbase. These people dont have an issue with laicism.

HDP started to go for the lib left but still get votes of the ultra conservative kurds, they are the only group still practice girl circumstition though the practice marginalized. Half of the HDP voters are conservative in a way that make avarage AKP and MHP voter seem like hippies. Because.. ashirets, tribal clans still exist, they still do honor killings and stuff. Their neigbourhoods are no gone zone especially for women. But other half of the voters are hippies, lib lefts or just regular kurds.

As for CHP yes they are overwhelmingly secularists but bear in mind alevi fanatics exist, they still tend to not marry even when they stop believing alevism. How do I know? I got alevi gf and met with her relatives, their taboos are extremely hard to get rid of due to centuries of ottoman pressure. By no means they are fundies but I just wanted to make a reminder.

>Also while the state is secular
Afaik secular means something wordly. We are laicist, we seek to regulate the religion so schizo religious orders don't pop up like mushrooms after a rainfall. Believe me we need it. With laicism we try to secularize our people even today.

>he Kurdish minority is also large enough for parties seeking legislative role to want their support. AKP managed to get that last time, but it seems CHP is also gaining grounds.
Yeah correct.

>Atatürk is generally respected by everyone,
Except for islamists and seperatist kurds. Most people dont understand what he aimed for, his ideas but general respect is there.

>but the parties trying to exploit his popularity by explaining his work, beliefs, and character, differently to suit their own agendas.
You got it better than avarage Türk.

>What are the key issues in the country?
Well just like everyone we have de facto hawks and doves.

Secularists vs islamists

"Atlanticists" vs eurasianists vs "do whatever works"

nationalism vs islamism (the term ummah clashes with modern nations)

turkism vs kurdism

modernism vs traditionalism

state controlled economy (I mean the key things, not in a socialist way) vs privatization advocates

kemalism vs liberalism seperatist kurds and islamists loved to portray themselves as liberal progressives, I only wrote this one so dont suprise when you encounter one, liberalism is almost non existent in these lands

"TSK do your duty" guys vs "just vote" bros

Lastly I want to note about Ataturk, to understand him better you need to read his books. They are good because unlike, hitler, lenin, marxs books Atatürk wrote his books after he actually tried and successfully completed things. His books are anti thesis of pure ideology. Also let me remind you one of his books are de facto illegal in schools and party cencored. So don't assume after his death we didn't deviate, we went as far as partially cencoring and banning his books in schools. Fun fact, majority of the self proclaimed kemalists didn't even hear about this.


Bernd 12/21/2020 (Mon) 21:38:41 [Preview] No.41724 del
>>41723
>they still tend to not marry
don't marry with people who don't descend from alevis.*


Bernd 12/22/2020 (Tue) 17:36:37 [Preview] No.41730 del
>>41723
Okay, I think it got clearer.
>You got it better than avarage Türk.
We have similar when current parties try to appropriate the heritage of the 19th century reformers. But I bet all the countries are the same in this aspect.


Bernd 12/22/2020 (Tue) 17:42:37 [Preview] No.41731 del
>>41701
He had a little problem to close down and secure the pincer from opening. It's nice again compliant offenders but even this guy they performed this exhibition had to raise his arm, and I bet most of the actual offenders won't be this helpful.


Bernd 12/22/2020 (Tue) 20:05:02 [Preview] No.41734 del
>>41699
How do the controlled Syrian rebels factor in? Merely a way to cut costs on occupation forces in Syria, at the expense of letting thugs roam around shooting each other and harassing the population? Would there be interest in a purely TSK occupation of northern Syria, or even handing those territories to the Syrian government?


Bernd 12/22/2020 (Tue) 20:54:17 [Preview] No.41737 del
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hungary strong


Bernd 12/22/2020 (Tue) 21:04:29 [Preview] No.41739 del
>>41734
I should have thought about the Syrian aspect. Good to see others aware.

>>41737
Kex.


Bernd 12/22/2020 (Tue) 23:08:24 [Preview] No.41740 del
Rio de Janeiro's mayor has been arrested nine days before his mandate ends. By the way the governor was also arrested some months ago, raising to 6 the number of governors imprisoned at some point.


Bernd 12/23/2020 (Wed) 12:33:46 [Preview] No.41747 del
>>41730
>We have similar when current parties try to appropriate the heritage of the 19th century reformers. But I bet all the countries are the same in this aspect.
Of course but this is the norm now, even amongst the culturally higher ups.

>>41734
People don't like when our soldiers die so we use syrian rebel proxies especially in idlib. Why we do it despite we can reach an agreement with Assad in exchange of eradicating kurdish seperatists in syria?

Because Erdoğan factor, he has personal bugurt when it comes to Sisi and Assad.

>Would there be interest in a purely TSK occupation of northern Syria

I don't know why anyone thinks that, for that we need allies to cover us diplomatically but we have none. Being a rogue state is not good even for a guy who only caring about his seat. So no, there wont be an permanent occupation. I think eventually we will hand it over in exchange of forbiding a terror state being created next to our borders.


Bernd 12/23/2020 (Wed) 16:25:12 [Preview] No.41750 del
>>41747
>for that we need allies to cover us diplomatically but we have none.
This is just recent turn in the relations, but still Turkey is an important NATO member, so she still has US, and for long in the past she had strategic relations with Israel, which still can return. Well, this isn't a comment on the possibility of occupation, just on relations.

I have another question. You wrote that coastal population favors liberal views (well what counts there as liberal), while further inside Anatolia people accept more autocratic governing style. What is the root cause of this? Economical factors? Educational?
Any other political divisions in the country which shows itself in geography?


Bernd 12/23/2020 (Wed) 21:35:57 [Preview] No.41756 del
>>41750
> but still Turkey is an important NATO member
We are wanted to be contained. Do you really think people who supports seperatists in my country will support a permanent land grab by us assuming we will actually do it? No chance. I know Syrian unity has been jeopardized but we need to support their unity to balance Israel.

>while further inside Anatolia people accept more autocratic governing style.
Coastal people would support a secularist nationalist coup they are not just not conservative. They are not liberals neither define themselves as so.

> What is the root cause of this? Economical factors? Educational?
Though you got it wrong, to some degree I get what you are saying. Coastal people save for the black sea. A few of the regions were cosmopolitan urban centers and after the Balkan War millions of Turks and muslim europeans had to migrate anatolia due to ethnic cleansings. Eventually urban centers periphery also developed. Anyway, these people were better educated and have better sense of nationality-patriotism compared to lethargic consarvatives of anatolia. Ottoman Empire by all means was a balkan centric state, we turn our eyes to depopulated, poor, desolate, dormant anatolia because we have nothing left. Nowadays almost half of the ethnic Turks are originating from European part of the Empire. Forget about schools there were barely enough masjid (small mosque) in anatolian villages.

Russian empire is usually seen as extremely backwards but even them developed education and farming industry much better than us.


Bernd 12/24/2020 (Thu) 19:32:20 [Preview] No.41768 del
>>41756
>We are wanted to be contained.
The "no border changes ever" is a worldwide policy enforced by a wall of concernedly staring bureaucrats and only those are exempt who can rely on their own strength to execute the landgrab while shrugging off all the strict looks of said bureaucrats.

I was curious about regional distribution of voters, and what causes the differences.


Bernd 12/24/2020 (Thu) 20:52:12 [Preview] No.41771 del
>>41768
>I was curious about regional distribution of voters, and what causes the differences.
They mostly settled down in coastal centers and their peripheries. I forgot to add that one.

>The "no border changes ever" is a worldwide policy enforced by a wall of concernedly staring bureaucrats
Which is why it won't happen. We are far from being that powerful.


Bernd 12/26/2020 (Sat) 16:45:58 [Preview] No.41792 del
(328.68 KB 1108x767 novák-london.jpg)
>>41366
In the forming cabinet the minister of sports will be Hungarian. Not a key ministry unlike finance or something, but better than nothing.
The dude, Novák Károly Eduárd, is a Paralympic gold medalist in cycling, won in London 2012.


Bernd 12/26/2020 (Sat) 20:41:44 [Preview] No.41793 del
What a minister of sports does? What can he do?


Bernd 12/27/2020 (Sun) 15:01:19 [Preview] No.41801 del
>>41793
"Those who can, do. Those who can't, govern. And those who can't govern, govern sports." :^)


Bernd 12/28/2020 (Mon) 18:17:38 [Preview] No.41818 del
>>41801
That explains how Deutsch Tamás - our sport minister during the first Fidesz government, 1998-2002 - managed to get that seat.
Maybe I can have a shot.


Bernd 12/28/2020 (Mon) 22:22:01 [Preview] No.41832 del
>>41818
>Maybe I can have a shot.

Go for it!
Rooting for you bernd :-DDDDDDD


Bernd 01/20/2021 (Wed) 13:42:52 [Preview] No.42159 del
It's over


Bernd 01/20/2021 (Wed) 14:02:09 [Preview] No.42160 del
>>42159
So they don't have a helicopter pad at the white house they just have those three concrete circles for the wheels it seems, very clever if they can manage to land on it like that, it looks like maybe they can't quite though.


Bernd 01/20/2021 (Wed) 17:45:25 [Preview] No.42161 del
>>42159
What's he gonna do now? Go back to his usual business whatever that may be? He has a new political persona and many people listens to him (never mind if it baloney or not).

>>42160
Yeah, faggots destroying that lawn.


Bernd 01/20/2021 (Wed) 21:53:39 [Preview] No.42165 del
>>42161
>What's he gonna do now? Go back to his usual business whatever that may be? He has a new political persona and many people listens to him (never mind if it baloney or not).
He loves attention so he won't get a quiet retirement. Sadly he can't post funny stuff on social media anymore. His bold writing style will never be forgotten.


Bernd 01/21/2021 (Thu) 18:00:25 [Preview] No.42171 del
Now in motion.

>>42165
How he's gonna keep in touch with his fanbase?
I think the alternatives, Gab, Parler, Telegram are under, hmm let's call it attack in the name of simplicity and straightforwardness.


Bernd 01/21/2021 (Thu) 18:13:53 [Preview] No.42172 del
>>42171
Also the people on these platforms (any maybe even the platforms themselves) got labeled as nazi or some such. I'm sure he does not want that label to himself.
His kids too are in the center of attention.


Bernd 01/26/2021 (Tue) 09:22:47 [Preview] No.42275 del
>>42159

Interesting that they still use their old Sea King helicopter for presidential main transport, even when they had several replacements for it.


Bernd 01/26/2021 (Tue) 09:38:58 [Preview] No.42277 del
(9.68 MB 4191x3143 Osprey 001.jpg)
>>42275
They should use an Osprey so the President crashes and dies.


Bernd 01/27/2021 (Wed) 16:43:08 [Preview] No.42289 del
>>42275
Well, Trump is the old president. He only gets the old vehicle.


Bernd 01/28/2021 (Thu) 12:02:51 [Preview] No.42296 del
(676.06 KB 829x1200 ZZC 0449.png)
China implemented a law that enables Chinese coast guards to fire on foreign vessels in what they claim are their waters.

I can't see this ending badly.


Bernd 01/29/2021 (Fri) 00:03:35 [Preview] No.42313 del
>>42296
An armed conflict soon, I can imagine


Bernd 01/30/2021 (Sat) 15:20:47 [Preview] No.42343 del
>>42296
So evil LMAO. I guess the US should send more carrier fleets to the other side of the pacific, taking a stroll in the China Sea, running them right through the mainland-island straits, why not. I can't see that ending badly.

>>42313
Hopefully china can avoid a confrontation. But as things are going I suppose the empire might be getting increasingly restless and reckless, seeing how china continue to prosper and the west self-destructs, it may be that they will in fact want to provoke one eventually. Unfortunately, the signs coming from the new US administration are not exactly encouraging.


Bernd 01/30/2021 (Sat) 15:35:59 [Preview] No.42345 del
(1.44 MB 1610x808 ZZC 0424.png)
>>42343
They already did send a carrier strike force to the region but that was due to increased Communist incursions into the airspace of real China. The Law takes affect on Monday, the strike force will still be in the region. Additionally, even Japan is getting agitated now. The Senkaku islands fall within China's claims and there is talk of now militarising them. China is behaving quite illogically, this new law is only going to further militarise every state with claims and waters within the nine dash line. This on top of already antagonising Australia and India. The US barely needs to get involved at this point.


Bernd 01/31/2021 (Sun) 03:50:44 [Preview] No.42351 del
what is china doing....

do they want war?...


Bernd 01/31/2021 (Sun) 05:47:58 [Preview] No.42354 del
>>42351
Maybe they're just bored from the months of being on lockdown and are doing this to get people's attention.


Bernd 02/03/2021 (Wed) 13:52:04 [Preview] No.42398 del
AKP wants to change constitution, which they need %67 votes of the parliment and they dont have it, even with the given alliance with MHP. Most likely they will use the need of new constitution as an excuse for an early election.

Why would they want it, you might ask.

To:

reassure trust in the eyes of London banks

prove to Biden and EU that he is still the peoples choice

to reverse the discontent inside AKP

secure another term before it is too late. If this election doesn’t happen there will be mass exodus to Gelecek(ex gülenist conservative) and Deva (supposedly liberal conservatives that are playing for the Gen Z) in 2022. It is impossible for AKP to survive until 2023

BONUS:

to get rid of MHP sucking AKP’s power turning erdogan into a lame duck. Cumhur Alliance will be disbanded in case of an early election because both sides want more power. Also AKP wants to make semi-reforms, release Demirtaş, get close with west while MHP wants full autocracy and an Eurasian alliance.

But

But without MHP, AKP can't even cheat in the elections, it's almost certain if give MHP middle finger, they will lose. They want to monkey branch I get that but current situation is really against them. Lately MHP pull out a 4D chess move about giving a speech about closing HDP, if AKP strictly opposes that MHP get out of the situation even stronger.


Bernd 02/03/2021 (Wed) 13:59:34 [Preview] No.42399 del
>>42398
What are they changing about the constitution? Are they making Sultans hereditary?


Bernd 02/03/2021 (Wed) 14:13:40 [Preview] No.42400 del
>>42399
Excuse for new election. "I just need a new constitution, the current system dont let me pull a 4D chess manouver, I totally have a brilliant idea to save you guys"

That was basically the argument for new presidental system, people has fallen for it and gave Erdog dictatorial powers, but right now it worked against AKP interests, mostly worked for MHP's interests and people are pissed. AKP support is all time low since 2002.


Bernd 02/03/2021 (Wed) 16:31:37 [Preview] No.42403 del
>>42398
Are they confident enough that they can win an election right now? Til 2022 much can change, they could be a better position than now. If they believe there's only downwards from now, they must be sure a 2/3 majority is unreachable, but are they sure an at least 50% + 1 seat is a realistic goal?
I assume as head of state, Erdogan can call for a new election anytime he wants it.


Bernd 02/03/2021 (Wed) 23:32:32 [Preview] No.42408 del
>>42403
>Are they confident enough that they can win an election right now?
No.

>Til 2022 much can change, they could be a better position than now.
Maybe but it is unlikely and Erdo has already smashed the panicked button.

> but are they sure an at least 50% + 1 seat

Not seat but popular vote. Unless you take %50+1 of the votes say bye bye to your presidental throne, ahem I mean seat.

>I assume as head of state, Erdogan can call for a new election anytime he wants it.
Yes he can but parliment can also do that with %60 majority. But the parliment thing seems impossible.


Bernd 02/04/2021 (Thu) 05:56:09 [Preview] No.42416 del
>>42398
>>42400
What with happen to the average person living in Turkey if AKP follows through on the constitution change?


Bernd 02/04/2021 (Thu) 18:28:45 [Preview] No.42435 del
>>42416
Civil war.


Bernd 02/04/2021 (Thu) 20:37:22 [Preview] No.42438 del
What's the outcome of AKP getting bad results but not MHP? And what if both of them don't win a lot of votes?


Bernd 02/05/2021 (Fri) 12:54:28 [Preview] No.42452 del
>>42438
MHP would try to switch sides as they did before. They only buddied up Erdo because they manage to control Erdo with ~%10 of the votes. They keep him in check enough to not let him cave in to USA and HDP again. Not to mention they solidifed their positions in bureaucracy. There is absolutely no reason for MHP go with the sinking ship. They would try to ally with CHP-İYİP but what matters now is who is the president. You don't need majority of the parliment to rule unopposed anymore, if your president candidate takes %50+1 of the popular rule, you're the new absolute monarch president.


Bernd 02/05/2021 (Fri) 12:54:58 [Preview] No.42453 del
>>42452
>popular rule,
popular vote


Bernd 02/05/2021 (Fri) 19:08:23 [Preview] No.42458 del
>>42435
It's hard to imagine in Turkey something would break out like in Libya or Syria. From here the country seems more stable than that. I can see brief clashes, I remember somewhat the last coup attempt (in 2016 me thinks), but even that didn't felt that serious. I read lots and lots of people were arrested.

>>42452
So MHP has options to form coalitions.


Bernd 02/07/2021 (Sun) 00:22:14 [Preview] No.42475 del
>>42435
Are you the regular Turkeybernd we always get?

Regardless, hope it doesn't come to that?


Bernd 02/07/2021 (Sun) 15:33:57 [Preview] No.42493 del
>>42458
Yeah, since Erdo wants to be sure I don't think he will force others hand. He always guarantees his safety before taking a step, too paranoid.

>So MHP has options to form coalitions.
Yes but they wont change sides until their influence somehow dwindled. They are more pragmatic rather than being true idealistic nationalists. MHP knows the opposition might need them in future but the opposition does not know that. They need insiders from bureaucracy if they want a change without bloodshed.

Here is our parliments situation, you need 360 congressman to make referandum about constitutional change. Guess what xD MHP forced some HDP members so they wont able to reach the number, at this situation even if AKP tried hard to simp for HDP, the numbers are not enough, thanks to MHP 4D chess. So here is the situation AKP+MHP is not enough to get the number, neither AKP+HDP. If Erdoğan makes a constitution, he will probably needs to get support İYİ party but why would they do that is beyond me. Maybe they will prepeare for soft transition where Erdo saves his ass, leaves the government to İYİ+MHP(??) and leaves his buddies for lynches so people get the blood they want?

>>42475
Yes I am.


Bernd 02/07/2021 (Sun) 15:57:44 [Preview] No.42494 del
>>42493
>MHP forced some HDP members

MHP jailed some HDP parliment members*

**Cant reformat as I'm unable to delete the post*


Bernd 02/11/2021 (Thu) 23:31:18 [Preview] No.42555 del
>>42493
>Yes I am.

Welcome back bernd. I thought you were gone forever


Bernd 03/11/2021 (Thu) 00:26:19 [Preview] No.42864 del
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The Supreme Court ruled Lula's case was outside of judge Moro's jurisdiction and therefore he can run for President next year. It did not, however, made any ruling on whether he's guilty or innocent.


Bernd 03/11/2021 (Thu) 07:25:05 [Preview] No.42865 del
>>42864
Judicial system in Brazil is all about rehabilitation, eh? No judgement that generates anxiety, just acceptance and helping hand to become good, honest president, as he was inspired to be before his momentary weakness and minor slip.


Bernd 03/11/2021 (Thu) 19:52:38 [Preview] No.42870 del
>>42864
>It did not, however, made any ruling on whether he's guilty or innocent.
Hmm. Does that mean process has to be repeated?


Bernd 03/13/2021 (Sat) 10:35:15 [Preview] No.42889 del
>>42865
>become good, honest president
Not sure about the first two but the last part might well happen, Bolsonaro has suffered too much political attrition, only a last minute burst of national prosperity might save him.

>>42870
More or less, I raised the hypothesis to a Law student a couple years ago and that's what he said would have to happen.

The funniest thing about this case is that years before some of Lula's properties (beachside triplex apartment and ranch) came into criminal investigation they were plainly mentioned in the media as belonging to him, and only later did their connection become controversial.


Bernd 03/13/2021 (Sat) 21:03:05 [Preview] No.42898 del
>>42889
>The funniest thing about this case is that years before some of Lula's properties (beachside triplex apartment and ranch) came into criminal investigation they were plainly mentioned in the media as belonging to him, and only later did their connection become controversial.
Yeah, I can imagine.
Can't name a specific case myself right now but sounds exactly like I have heard such cases on the news here myself before.


Bernd 04/28/2021 (Wed) 18:15:00 [Preview] No.43423 del
Here >>43352 were these questions.
>Why were there so many political movements a few years ago compared to now? What changed?
>And should bernds perhaps start a political movement of their own in the future?
Good topic.
I think back then political activism was more serious. For example people weren't just voters but frequently members of parties, which had giant memberships. Like NSDAP had membership in the millions, the German communists similarly. And one way was organizing people is creating movements, they actively did stuff together strengthening the bond between the members, made their voice heard, made changes, shaping their environment, helped each other. Also they clashed with other movements, in physical confrontations. They were defensive organizations as well.
Sometimes even today movements are created. On the Hungary there was the Magyar Gárda for example for the Jobbik (but was banned). But the Fidesz also made one, more "civil", less militaristic (I think these ain't exist anymore because they don't need them).
I think in the US, this Q thing also such. But I bet in the US they have many more, much smaller.
People are getting atomized, alienated, separated. They don't trust, and they don't even have the initiative spirit to do something by themselves. Especially not something that is "dangerous". They might sperg out about daily politics in the comment section on youtube, or on facebook, but beyond that...
I dunno.

A Bernd political movement, or any political movement, just made by a Bernd?


Bernd 04/28/2021 (Wed) 23:10:19 [Preview] No.43433 del
>>43423
A vanguard party of Bernds that will lead the masses to a revolution.


Bernd 05/05/2021 (Wed) 18:45:55 [Preview] No.43511 del
Meanwhile on the Small Island the voters gonna go to the urns to urnate tomorrow.
Legislative elections in Scotland. The ruling Scottish National Party is expected to win. Judging by the polls published on Politico there won't be any major changes compared to 2016.
The new party of Alba is expected to get ~5 seats.
The census is drawn at the age of 16, I guess considering an average voter's cluelessness, and an 18 yo voter's too, it doesn't matter much if younger teenagers can cast ballots.
More curiously foreigners can vote too, those who "legally" live in Scotland, whatever that means. Legally living foreigners theoretically could hack Scottish elections. That would be a hoot.


>>43433
Bernd's fist is steel fist, it strikes where it's needed.


Bernd 05/05/2021 (Wed) 19:02:39 [Preview] No.43512 del
Wales also holds legislative election.
Here too, 16 year olds can vote, I guess this must be a UK thing.
Big loser is the UKIP, the fun party is the Abolish, which seeks to abolish the Senedd Cymru, the legislative body itself.

Londoners are electing mayor.
Labor or Tory is the question, but essentially part and parcel guy is expected to win again. His main opponent is a negro who is keen on reducing "knife crime".
This election should have took place last year, but was postponed due to corona.


Bernd 05/06/2021 (Thu) 08:13:50 [Preview] No.43521 del
>>43511
>>43512
Thinking maybe the age is low because they have more colored and muslim youth. Another way of gerrymandering or whatever.


Bernd 05/29/2021 (Sat) 15:56:30 [Preview] No.43817 del
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Syria had presidential election a couple of days ago. Turnout was 78%.
Results:
1. Bashar Assad 95.1% - Arab Socialist Ba'ath Party - Syria Region
2. Mahmoud Ahmad Marei 3,1% - Democratic Arab Socialist Union
3. Abdullah Sallum Abdullah 1,5% - Socialist Unionist Party

It seems the parties themselves are pretty similar, all revolve around Arab socialism and Arab nationalism.
I dunno how much this can be called a free election, but who else is in the country to offer an alternative?
In some countries Syrian expats/refugees/migrants/whoevers could vote via the present Embassies, in other countries these Embassies were closed some time ago, so no voting there. I think it's safe to Assume that those countries don't have Embassies anymore which took in large amount of Syrians since 2015.


Bernd 05/29/2021 (Sat) 16:00:31 [Preview] No.43818 del
I dunno how reliable this list is:
https://www.embassy-worldwide.com/country/syria/


Bernd 05/29/2021 (Sat) 16:26:57 [Preview] No.43819 del
>>43817
>It seems the parties themselves are pretty similar, all revolve around Arab socialism and Arab nationalism.
>I dunno how much this can be called a free election, but who else is in the country to offer an alternative?

That's the case in Australia too, we have liberal and labour.


Bernd 05/29/2021 (Sat) 19:42:06 [Preview] No.43820 del
>>43819
My problem here is parties turning into not standing for anything, just governing party doing things and opposition finds flaws on them in a way or another and say something different. No matter of ideology, or principles.
And then the issue with democracies that Westerners appropriated it saying it's only democracy is liberal democracy. And suddenly the talk was about illiberal democracies, and how Orbán built one, but if the opposition would came to power would that still be illiberal? Or this just changes with the wind? And not just Westerners labeled, but even Orbán had a nod at one point, a half sentence about liberal democracies and things can be done otherwise. Just an addition to empty words, nonexistent definitions, not making a stand, and a whole lotta confusion.

In Syria I assume the war was fought in political opponents, and one (many) side was defeated, and only one left on the ring. I don't believe the election happened in the rebel occupied regions, like Idlib, so essentially voters could picked from Assad and whoever was on his side, or was too insignificant to become rebel.


Bernd 05/30/2021 (Sun) 02:59:26 [Preview] No.43821 del
>>43820
I think that is a part of democracy in general, it seems to always happen that the opposition party will claim to not do x thing that the ruling party is doing then they get voted in and still do it anyway.

It also often seems that it's not so much that a party stands for something and so takes a stance based on that but that a party is supported by certain interests and so takes a stance based on that. A good example would be here in Australia, you have the liberals that are supported by mining companies and other such interests so take actions based on that and the labour party that is supported by labour unions and so takes action based on that, even when it goes against what they actually want and it's actually causing factionalism in both parties with some in both parties wanting to focus on climate change but being prevented by the respective factions(labour unions don't want mines to close because it will get rid of many high paying low skilled jobs and of course mining companies don't want them to close for the obvious reason).


Bernd 05/30/2021 (Sun) 07:31:18 [Preview] No.43823 del
>>43821
Parties do their job when they represent interests, because that's how parties become existence, that's their purpose.
When Athens fought against Persia, and they had to decide how, two parties emerged. One was formed by the landowners, those who lived from the rural lands, from gardens and herds, their interest was a strong army to field and stop the Persians before they plunder, burn, and butcher everything. The other was made by the craftsmen and traders, who worked in the city, who moved the goods with ships and sold them on far away lands, they wanted a strong navy that could face the Persians and prevent them from cutting the sea lanes. They faced a problem which they offered different solutions to, based on their differing interests. If they had a problem which threatened the interests the same, I'm sure they could come up with a solution together that would benefited everyone.
In your example the Labour and the Liberals found a common ground not wanting to close the mines, but some/many in those parties feels that isn't in their best interest so this leads to struggle within the parties. This is the problem of large "reservoir" parties that they gather many smaller groups with different interests and views.
Maybe parties should be more fluent, changing, volatile, always breaking up and reforming, to really represent the people behind them. But the tendency is that we have politicians only living from that business, who promote their own brand, which should be recognizable. Maybe never changing too - else they could be called hypocrites and turncoats, who change their mind at every two steps - or at least with the illusion of consistency.


cont. Bernd 05/30/2021 (Sun) 07:46:30 [Preview] No.43824 del
>>43823
Parties existed through the ages, they were there in feudalism too, the aristocracy, nobility, priesthood were divided along their own agenda, interests, and family ties.
I think the rising political ideologies, first with the Big Three (what I always say, Liberalism, Socialism, Nationalism), gave lasting lines to follow, relatively constant views on how to solve problems. But they have the problem that these ideas can go against interests, or even common sense. Or the other way around people can go against principles which they should follow based on their ideological preference (like some liberals wanting to restrict freedom of speech).
The Big Three is just not enough, and now myriad of tiny ideologies exist with their own particularities.
And there's ofc, the dichotomies, left-right, or conservative-progressive, also creating divisions, and raising the expectation from parties to follow such "values".
And lastly populism also makes things blurry and from what I can tell it isn't really about anything, just to "win as much people for our party as we can" and what they say changes with the wind. And this is why it sometimes used as a nicer way of saying demagoguery.


Bernd 06/06/2021 (Sun) 14:56:24 [Preview] No.43873 del
New phenomenon appeared in the politics of Hungary - maybe it's a start of a new practice -, the opposition parties are preparing for primary elections.
No dominant party can challenge the Fidesz's rule, so the opposition have to resort to cooperation no matter what ideology they (claim to) represent. But they have to make dealings: who will be their candidate for the position of Prime Minister? They want to decide this with the primaries.
I also suspect this is a way for them to appear relevant in the media, this pandemic really shot down every other topic than criticizing the government from all the possible angles how they aren't handling the situation well. So they're making big noise of this.
I really don't wanna go through who is who right now, I just wanted to write something. Maybe tomorrow.
The thing will done by October 23.


Bernd 06/06/2021 (Sun) 16:55:55 [Preview] No.43879 del
>>43823
The issue is that who they are actually representing and who they claim to represent are so different. These actions don't benefit the vast majority of voters nor are they in the interests of the majority of voters. They just make things up about how it will be good for the nation which doesn't stand up for scrutiny and even people in government institutions speak out about it(this is happening with the gas led recovery, energy institutions, state governments and economists are saying it's ludicrous. Who suggested a gas led Recovery? Well the committee for Covid recovery was made up of people who stood to directly benefit from gas).

At least aristocratic parties did not pretend they were representing the people, democracy is a farce.


Bernd 06/06/2021 (Sun) 19:27:28 [Preview] No.43886 del
>>43879
Yeah, representing the interests of just a thin group of people is a general problem.
I dunno how it goes elsewhere but here it's a problem that representatives cannot be called back (easily or at all) if they ain't doing what their voters wanted from them when they were elected. This is part of the problem. If in a constituency peeps could say "hey we saw you ain't voting in the legislation how we want you to, you are done, we send someone else" it might be a bit better.
On the other hand here representatives can gain seats via party lists without them having to compete in the constituencies. Whom would recall them?


Bernd 06/18/2021 (Fri) 07:57:58 [Preview] No.44045 del
>>44037
Political activism demanded way more involvement back then, but more risks also. Even mortal risk. Just putting a message out there meant actually going out to the streets and meeting places, talk to people, argue with them. Quite a good description is what Hitler gave in the Mein Kampf how he got into politics, as young men. Visiting the Austrian legislation, arguing with workers, etc. For the violent nature of the movements the NSDAP is also a great example.
Another approach to politics was Szálasi's. He was part of the system, and he did a "tour" in the country, see how the people lived, he talked to them, and wrote a study describing their poverty and hardships. Then he passed this study upstairs into one of the ministry's where it went ignored. After that he started his Arrow Cross Party, and Hungarist movement, he got jailed as a radical, a potential left-wing radical I think. The war was turbulent times ofc, so that we can consider uncommon circumstances. After it he was executed by the communists (well I think we still had Republic, and not People's Republic, so was executed by "democratic" forces).
Communist movements were also tough since the beginning. The strikes frequently meant violent clashes, with police, or other political groups. And then by the end of WWI they sparked the revolutions and violence.


Bernd 06/20/2021 (Sun) 08:26:12 [Preview] No.44071 del
What Bernd think of terrorism. Or moar liek "terrorism", I would rather call it. And this is the aspect I'm asking Bernd's opinion.
These days they label acts of violence terrorism, these lone gunmen doing attacks on civilian targets, school, mall, movie theater, mosque shooters and such, these "domestic terrorists".
My problem is with the categorization, the label of terrorism. Generally terrorists apply overwhelming fear (terror) to get what they want. They don't have to be violent per se, but classical terrorist organizations do violent things. Elected governments also can be terrorists by simply applying fear onto the population, scare them with some looming threat to make them do something, or make them agree with something, enacting a law or some such.
But these guys, these shooters, aren't force people to do anything, just go out and try to kill people. They don't and can't repeat their acts, and declare "we're going to go on until you give in". I'm not even sure anyone gets really scared. It rather seems their acts used by govts. to scare people into agreeing to restrictions.



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