wow, big happenings this year.

Bolsonaro is fucked now, right?

>>36222
Not from this, the only immediate effect is that it'll hurt his popularity. Many of Bolsonaro's opponents hated Moro. But since this pandemic hit the whole country is a mess and his position grows more isolated every day.

This move just make the suspicions against Bolsonaro's sons more credible. Now peeps are speculating that yeah it was because of them, so they sure are guilty.

Bolsonaro made his own statement:
-He has the authority to sack the Federal Police director
-He told he'd sack him to Moro in advance, in yesterday's morning
-It was Valeixo who requested to be relieved of his post
-Moro did not inform him in advance of his decision to resign
-He never went off what was proper to request information on ongoing investigations
-Moro accepted that Valeixo would be sacked, but only after he himself would be named to be the Supreme Court in November

In comparison with Moro's earlier speech:
-He only knew of Valeixo's elimination after it was officially published, and did not sign it. Nonetheless the official document has Moro's digital signature. Moro said nothing about this but it has led to speculation that his signature was placed without his knowledge through fraud. Bolsonaro did not touch the topic of Moro's signature
-Valeixo spoke to Moro of leaving his post but only as a response to pressure, and his removal was political
-Bolsonaro wanted someone who could provide information on ongoing investigations
-Upon becoming minister Moro never put up the condition of being placed in the Supreme Court. More recently he said he never traded Valeixo's permanence for a nomination.

Polish election is coming in May. Due to this epidemic-situation their parliament decided to hold it remotely, the Royal Post was charged to manage the event. There are problems however...
https://www.politico.eu/article/polish-postal-vote-raises-data-privacy-concerns/

It seems Bolsonaro was lying. Moro's resignation did not come out of a vacuum, there was talk about it for a while and when Bolsonaro sacked Valeixo he knew a resignation could come. Likewise there was talk about political pressure on Valeixo for a long time so it can't be a personal desire to leave. Moro leaked Whatsapp correspondence with the President to the media. On them Bolsonaro links to a piece of news about the Federal Police weighing down on 10-12 of his deputies, and says "one more reason for a replacement". Moro pointed out that this was by the Supreme Court's orders.
The investigation itself is part of the Supreme Court's fake news enquiry, which is controversial and part of their tendency to overreach, on the same line as their gag orders on a news site last year.
Moro might be lying about not trading Valeixo's stay for a Supreme Court naming but there isn't more information on that.

Moro also showed a conversation with deputy Carla Zambelli in which she requests him to accept Valeixo's later replacement in exchange for the Supreme Court, but he refuses. At the very least the idea was in circulation.

>>36249
>royal
xd
There are more problems than mentioned in the article.
IMO main thing is lack of any decisions. Today is 26th of april. Elections originally were supposed to be 10th of May, that's 2 weeks from now. Polish Post assumed we need 3 days to deliver everything, so we would have to start on 6th. As of now there is no law declared that would allow for elections. As far as I know the senate is holding it for no real reason (just because they can). The institution that is responsible for printing all the voting papers have no right to print them and that takes time too. Don't forget it also needs to be shipped to all the post offices around the country. One of the president candidates, Krzysztof Bosak, said few days ago that he doesn't know if the elections are going to happen on 10th of May or not and that he also got info that a debate in state television is planned on 11th of May. IIRC after all the law gets approved elections can be held no earlier than 2 weeks from that day. So it would basically be against law to have them on 10th of May.
Postal workers are angry, because delivering those voting packets means our usual work will have to be stopped and that just means more work later. There is a question of extra pay, and we were promised it but so far nothing specific has been said. I heard 3 different versions but nothing official. We will be delivering the packets as a committee of 2 people, one postman and one other worker. Some people here are talking about protesting and that means we won't have enough manpower.
As I was typing this I got a message from my boss that she needs to send to the directors a committee composition tomorrow lol.

>>36309
I'm Hungarobernd. My ball doesn't show up for some reason.

>>36312
No! I am hungrobernd!

>>36320
No I!

>>36309
>Is there a possible "pretender" around? Rival in his own faction? How strong the opposition?
His nemesis is Rodrigo Maia, president of the Chamber of Deputies, who can rally an opposition from 3 sources:
-The old guard of Brasília, of which he is a representative: traditional parties of the center and right as well as the Supreme Court.
-A parliamentary minority of liberals, libertarians and others who have tried to distance themselves from the old guard, support Lava Jato and draw politically conscious voters.
-Often overlapping with the previous, former Bolsonaro allies who broke with him. Most were opportunists who latched on to his initially tiny circle when they saw his power, but ideology and/or lack of concession led them to break away. A huge section of Bolsonaro's allies have already defected.

In addition the media will support a center and right of center political offensive against the President. There's also the left which is loud but small and not allied with Maia. Besides the ideological gap, Moro's exit might have pleased them, as well as some of the old center.
If Maia can frame Bolsonaro and rally a strong enough base he might impeach him, but to attain power himself he'd have to impeach both President and VP as he's second in the line of succession. If Bolsonaro alone is toppled Mourão would make a lot of concessions but it would not be a complete defeat to the Bolsonaro camp.
Bolsonaro makes enemies with everyone, in a way a moral thing as there's less bribery involved, but also a stubborn way to rule which doesn't bear fruit unless he uses it to seize more power; so far it only led to a loss of power. He tries to rely on popular pressure but a lot of his voters picked him to defeat his opponent, not because of himself, and are now apathetic. He has a core base including engaged political activists, much like the Worker's Party, but that has also lost its strength. His most hardcore supporters now became Moro haters but many others are disappointed with how it turned out.

Supreme Court judge Moraes suspended the new pick for Federal Police director, Ramagem. Meanwhile Bolsonaro is buying himself a base by handing out posts to members of the center.

Today Moro entered the Federal Police building in Curitiba to depose of political interference in the institution and began to speak at about 14:30. It's 22:36 and there are no news of him finishing, only that pizza was requested.

And it's over. It took 8 hours.

>>36343
>>36393
How does it look like? Will Bolsonaro serve through his term? Well, if you have to guess.

>>36494
>>36495
>pizza
What was the topping I wonder. Is pineapple popular in the higher echelons of politics?

>>36503
It's hard to guess. An impeachment is by design difficult to pull off, and even the opposition may not bother to set one in motion if the crisis doesn't cross a certain threshold. Mourão won't organize Bolsonaro's fall himself, that would fall to Maia. For Maia unseating both Bolsonaro and Mourão to get himself the throne is harder than unseating Bolsonaro alone and getting concessions from Mourão. Bolsonaro is buying support in the center. But if it comes down to parliamentary negotiation ability Maia wins.

>>36512
Is there a talk about impeachment in the media? What are the chances it's just imitation of the US? I'm thinking that Bolsonaro was called the Brazilian Trump, so might be they just took over this impeachment nonsense from the US because that was a popular topic there.

>>36524
>Is there a talk about impeachment in the media?
A lot of talk right now.
>What are the chances it's just imitation of the US?
It's an imitation of Dilma, not Trump.

>>36526
Oh yeah, they did her. Her VP was from the opposition or from the same coalition? How about current VP?

>>36528
Dilma's VP was Temer, from the center which until 2015 was the left's coalition partner. Around 2015 the center saw Dilma was weak, switched to the opposition, overthrew her minority government and enlisted the right as its coalition partner.
Right now Bolsonaro's VP is ideologically aligned with him and not part of Maia's faction.

>>36532
And since Mourao doesn't busy himself with impeaching Bolsonaro, and impeaching only Bolsonaro wouldn't change much on the big picture, both should have to go, but that's a harder walnut.
I guess then, an "attack" will depend on if Maia can make a deal with the VP. And even then, it isn't sure it would succeed, a very solid case needed to be built up - I assume - to make the impeachment happen. And for that it is very important that the key people in the justice system play for the right team. How's the new police director and justice minister? Are they the men of Bolsonaro?

>>36536
>I guess then, an "attack" will depend on if Maia can make a deal with the VP
He doesn't even need to make a deal, if Mourão is given the fait accompli of an impeachment he will have no choice but to compromise and make concessions.
>And for that it is very important that the key people in the justice system play for the right team.
The Supreme Court would side with Maia.
>How's the new police director and justice minister? Are they the men of Bolsonaro?
They're loyal. He had the authority to do this, it just came at a political price.

Huh, the black automobile can come for me any minute nao.
https://www.politico.eu/article/hungary-no-longer-a-democracy-report/
This is so stupid. While I also agree that this period should have clearly defined expiry date, Orbán and co. touched nothing which wasn't related to managing this "crisis". Our "independent" media is breddy gud pointing out abuse, but not much around. Beside the usual corruption.
With their 2/3 majority they can pretty much do anything anyway.

For later read I put this here:
https://www.politico.eu/article/poland-polish-schrodinger-presidential-election-pis-law-and-justice-andrzej-duda-jaroslaw-kaczynski/
Election in Polan arriving fast. Or maybe not?

>>36286
>>royal
It's a nickname for all the important branches of state owned companies here. Similarly "of the treasury".

>>36286
>>36612
On political level this circus with the election, is a storm in the chamberpot, blew out of proportion. It will be held when it can be. It will be postponed by a couple of months, so what. It's just something to be very concerned of, something that politicians can pretend they very much busy with, this question is important so they are important.
What I don't get, how cannot be this set up electronically. Vote over the internets. People are worried about AI and virtuality, and implanted microchips via vaccination, and surveillance... they can't even organize a fuckin election. Srsly.

https://wybory.gov.pl/prezydent2020/

good doc about argentina

https://youtube.com/watch?v=Eu_0o9OtCDw [Embed]

>>36649
Unfucking South American countries is an unsolvable puzzle.
Gonna try to watch that in the next couple of days.

Valeixo testified. He said he did not hear from Bolsonaro of scrutinizing any specific investigation and thus cannot accuse him of political interference, and also that his dismissal came with Bolsonaro's insistence because the President desired a Director with affinity to him, and yet his exit from his post had to be officially registered as having been by his own will. Discourses aligned with the President claim the first part of this as a triumph but the second shows he lied about Valeixo's dismissal having been by his own will.

>>36695
I think this will be enough to keep Bolsonaro afloat. The second part isn't too problematic. Media can chew it a little but not really dangerous.

Panic in Liberaland.
https://www.politico.eu/article/german-court-lays-down-eu-law/
https://www.politico.eu/article/german-judges-take-ecb-fight-to-court-of-public-opinion/
The German Constitutional Court basically overruled the Court of Justice of the European Union. The question in itself seems important, but I know very little about it (it's monetary politics). I haven't even read these articles in their entirety, I just copypasted them here as a reference.
This decision the German Court made, has an interesting side effect, which switched the Hungarian liberal media into panic mode. One of their chief source of satisfaction that the EU Court of Justice make decisions against Hungary and the Hungarian government. Most recent example of their gloating over the reprimand over how Hungary handles the migrant question. Now with the German example (placing national laws before EU laws) in front of them, they are afraid that Orbán will make the Hungarian Supreme Court (Kúria), or even our Constitutional Court to rule over decisions coming from the EU.
Great hope of the opposition that the EU will somehow remove Fidesz from power (since themselves are incapable of that), they are constantly lobbying for the intervention of Brussels (or in case of Court of Justice, Luxembourg). Or if they can't at least hamper and penalize Hungary as much as they can. Now Orbán might be able to just shrug things off.

>>36753
>eu doing anything to remove fidesz

EU benefits greatly from having a mini-dictatorship in Europe that they can offload dirty work onto. Same reason that Brussels doesn't ultimately care too much that Poland is slipping into authoritarianism.

>>36774
Yeah, it's a possibility, that they use Orbán and the others as an outlet, or even experimenting with not that liberal democracies.

Polan had presidential election today. Candidates needed 505 for a win. Since noone reached that second round will come up between the first two:
1. Duda
2. Trzaskowski
I hope Duda wins coz it can be spelled easier. Btw he is backed by the ruling party (right wing, conservative), the other guy is the candidate of the major opposing party, which is apparently a liberal-conservative one, member of EPP.

>>38127
*50%

Maybe its a way of controlling flow of people. Both hungary and poland has a big border fence. Perhaps its a way of keeping people inside.

>>38129
Not entirely unplausible.

>>38129
>keeping people inside
inside of eu. Forgot to mention that.

Fences, walls are most often used to keep people inside, even though the popular perception is that its to keep intruders out.

Forgot to mention, this post >>38580 compelled me to write this little overview. I should have add more about Göncz's Presidency, a couple of events, maybe revisit him, we'll see.

president of Hungary? but Austria-Hungary has an emperor.

The Constitution contains the regulations about the President. Articles 9 to 14 deal with the question. Quite longish, I might just copypaste the whole thing here, or give a condensed version. I haven't decided yet.
Here is the whole constitution (so I can find it):
https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Hungary_2016?lang=en
After the regime change we had the Stalinist constitution with some corrections, chiefly done by the MDF-SZDSZ pact. After the pact the representatives in the Parliament spoke about creating a new one, but that didn't happen. Then the Fidesz made it's own constitution in 2011. We call it Fundamental Law. I'm really curious how the provisions about the President differ in the two. Btw, officially the President is called the 1'President of the Republic''.

>>38623
Er ist nicht mein Kaiser!

>>36217
Elect Bolsanaro they said, he'll revive the Empire they said..

>>38629
>Er ist nicht mein Kaiser!
Of course. He's your König.
>>38632
He doesn't even rule in his own family and over his sons.

>>38652
Wasn't election nor coronation.
I wonder who else got some blood of the Árpáds.

you can't make this shit up

US presidential election incoming on Tuesday. Finally it will be over soon. Then comes the usual hysteria, probably with further demonstrations.
Like the last time, media predicts Trumps loss, but that means nothing in itself, like the last time.
We'll see.

>>40827
Ok. Peeps vote today, but I think there are changes due covid or something, I don't follow have to read about it. Since it's an indirect system, they vote for the electors, who then vote for the person of the President (and VP). Not sure how long will this take, and when we're gonna get the final result, sure it's not today or tomorrow, about this, I also have to gather info.

>>40845
I expect both sides to chimp out one way or another. Though hopefully they'll get bored with waiting.
This is kinda shit though. Would have been nicer to get the thing over in one night. A good chunk of the english net's going to be even more unuseable for weeks.

Cliffhanger, very possibly Biden wins with the remaining states.

>>40849
I have to change that hat if Biden wins. Maybe to the blue KC ones.

>>40852
Read it might depend on the mail voters.

Huh.
https://ballotpedia.org/What_happens_if_a_presidential_candidate_declares_victory_in_the_2020_election_before_results_are_final
>Predictions about a blue shift in election results
This says:
According to the blue shift thesis, Democratic voters are more likely to use provisional ballots than Republican voters. A provisional ballot is one that is only counted after the voter's eligibility to vote is verified. Because provisional ballots can be counted after election night, according to this picture, Democratic candidates tend to make greater gains after election night than Republican candidates do.
So basically these provisional ballots will largely decide who winsin which states from those we're still waiting for to be counted.

Biden seemed to secure Michigan and Wisconsin, which means in the rest of the yet undecided states (Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada, Alaska) Trump has to win to get reelected, and Biden only needs Nevada's backing to get the 270 electorates needed for the presidency.
Now, what I don't know if the electors have to vote in December according to this result we're getting sometimes hopefully soon? But then, why they need to vote at all? Have to look this up too.

Lots of hurt feelings in these past few hours.

>>40879
I read there's some chimpouts already.

This shit is ridiculous, rt's front page down to the "Sports" section.
I mean yeah it supposed to be an important event (it really less important than they blow up to be), but this isn't an American news site, and stuff did not stop happening about the world.

>>40881
Damn.
The police have their hands full with magapedes now. The boys in blue have had a tough year.

>>40855
While I don't generally believe in the 4D chess meme that follows the old man, part of me thinks that his encouragement of live voting versus mail-in was a calculated move. Like he expected a wave of Dem mail voters and wanted his share segregated so as to make the wave as steep as possible.
If he wins then he just wins. If he loses he can point at the spikes and that galvanizes his mooks to get mad at something. Still, this is embarrassing on his part.

This is so slow.
Wouldn't be the benefit of mail voting, that it can be sent prior to voting day, and they can be just mixed in the the normal votes? I read they even have that practice.

Obviously it's deliberately slow. I think the purpose is to soften the blow and encourage acceptance. Not only they were slow, they stopped and started every day, there was dilly-dallying avoiding to give definitive answers, they tried to spread out the subtotal reports (if they counted 100k A votes, they waited to count some 20k B votes and published them in chunks, interspersing them), they waited until late in the night to publish 'interesting' reports (overtake in Georgia was published at 4 am central), etc. The polarization is close to complete and there's been riots, arson and murder in the streets for months up until some weeks ago, so this overstretched process was probably designed.

>>40894
>soften the blow and encourage acceptance
If they're doing that they might have to wait years, judging by how some people took the 2016 election. Only now the other side's going to be plagued by their own derangement syndrome. I'm of the idea that they'll drop the results at the start of the week, in the hopes that potential rioters are too busy working.

Well never mind that, it's ogre.

>>40898
Yeah, Biden won. And as I saw last time the Democrats stood better in Congress seats and the two party were head to head for the Senate ones. I guess, they won those seats too. Gonna check somewhere. These news site are so shit, and very capable in hiding the facts behind flashy headlines and irrelevant bs.

Just hope Biden doesn't take a hostile and destructive attitude towards us because of the blue bar.

>>40900
I guess those with "green" agenda support Democrats. What they will do depends on the strength of the lobby and expectations.

Musing about this situation with Szájer.
Besides that he looks like a typical caricature in Der Stürmer it really shows how hard to find reliable people, with acceptable morality, whom are knowledgeable at least in one thing, and capable of taking action. This guy is a slick operator, 60 years old spent most of his life building the Fidesz, participating at such important moves like the creation of the new constitution, and his career was torpedoed because he couldn't control himself and his urges. Now he is smeared all over the road of politics and the Fidesz can't do much just step over and pretend nothing happened and continue with whatever they do nowadays.
And this the thing with politics. It is impossible to run a party without the liability humans and their shortcomings mean. The best they can do is keeping them hushed up, pretending they don't even exist, then keeping head held high without shame when some of it floats to the surface like a big fat turd. Starting media campaign to parry media attacks and derail the smear campaign.
Simple honest people with good-ish moral compasses can't do this. You have to be a special kind of a villain.
And you need accomplices for your act. And generally they'll be useless. Purely ambition won't make them reliable (just unreliable), smart, knowledgeable, capable of action, or in short: useful. Mostly you'll get dead weight who always want something from you, and who will be careless, and lazy. How to make a new force that would capable of changing things with this material? You can be the most honest and straight person, the cleanest ever, but you need to know that the next one - even the most benevolent - will have something that could turn over your boat.

What Bernd thinks, how could one end in politics nowadays?
I can see a couple of ways.
Like being a huge fanboy of a party or another, so the peep signs up and plays lackey for a long time. If he has any real ambition, he will grab opportunities and become a functionary within a party and maybe the higher ups will give him a position in the state bureaucracy if the party won an election or something.
Or maybe via local activism, starts out as someone who gets enough from the incompetence of the local politicians and stagnation of his immediate patria. And takes action doing something by himself, raises awareness, glues stencils upon lampposts about the issues. Exploits social media, draws attention to the problems, narrowcasts his ideas of change. Maybe he does this in some funny or outrageous way, so even the media notices, making a country-wide news out of him and his initiative. Various joke parties would fit the bill, like the Hungarian Two-tailed Dog Party.
What else?

>>41355
Most politicians (particularly here) don't start out as politicians, they are lawyers, bankers and such for a while and then they enter politics almost on the side in many cases. I don't think many important politicians do come from ground up movements or even from a position where they join a large party at a young age whilst having no education and hope to just climb the ladder like that, it does not seem to work. Politics is a game for the rich and connected.

>>41356
That is a good point.
One can be a person with a reputation of some level in his locality, with connections on the side he made during his career. Most likely not even to one party, but several. Since he already known by a considerable percentage of the people, he will be a person of interest in those parties, someone to get hold onto. He could use one of the parties to get into politics and the party could use him to gain support and get votes. A marriage made in heaven.
More?

>>41356
Btw lots of politicians doesn't have political education (in political science, the can get it later), here too, many of them starts out with degree in law.
The ones with degree in political science are often used as payed experts, to consult, or to make eggsbert sounding reasoning for a purposed law or something.

wont be any politicians when communitarianism is fully implemented. technocracy and ai will do the rest.

Romania is holding a parliamentary election today. Besides the RMDSZ (Demcratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania, the acronym is UDMR in Romanian) I know next to nothing about the parties of Romania so here goes what I found in short notice.
The Romanian parliament is a bicameral one and they are electing the deputies into the Chamber of Deputies. The fate of 329 seats is getting decided.
Largest party is PSD, social democrats, which apparent means little nowadays, since they seem to be somewhat nationalist and euro-skeptic. Wikipee says:
>Political position: Catch-all
Heh. They were close to 50% last time,
Next is PNL, the "National Liberal Party", they are sitting in the EPP with Fidesz in the EU Parliament, liberal conservatives.
And now we arrived to the small ones.
USR, or the Save Romania Union. Liberal progressive party. They are running as 2020 USR-PLUS Alliance with another group.
UDMR or RMDSZ how we call it, besides representing the minority Hungarian interest, they are aligned along the Fidesz, liberal conservatives (and such member of EPP). Read just before our foreign minister, Szijjártó Petya, campaigned for them, in a form of recorded phone calls. They called Romanian peeps too generating some butthurt, actually rightfully, me thinks.
ALD, Alliance of Liberals and Democrats. They represent conservative liberalism and social liberalism. They merged with PRO Romania Social Liberal for the election.
The last one worth mentioning is the People's Movement Party or PMP. It's a little party, lil PuMP. They are Christian democrats I guess. Hmm, they support union with Moldova. Interdasting.

>>41360
Well, make sure to end up as technocrat.

>>41342
Not to mention party leaders may not ditch a scandal-prone operator unless they have strong evidence of his misgivings, as the party is a bureaucracy and thus has a strong incentive to prioritize keeping the machine running by conserving a quality cog.

>>41360
Sounds good.

>>41369
Oh yeah, good cadres are hard to come by. Especially those who can do stuff by themselves and don't need babysitting. Better to use him to build as much as he can, getting some flak because of him later will be less damaging on the long run, it just needs to tough it out.
Which makes me think: what was the doing in Brussels. Our parties tend to send their most useless cunts there, like Deutsch Tamás (also from Fidesz). Maybe Szájer was less useful nowadays, or maybe he was doing something important.
Or - if I want to go a paranoid direction - maybe his party itself wanted him gone, but if they's initiated they might have spilled the beans, he must now a lot, so he needed to compromise himself, so they could say: "you have to go and make it look like it's your decision". A little faggotry and drug abuse doesn't mean much for the voters I think, many Fidesz voters aren't Fidesz supporters just don't want the other side to win. They got enough of the "socialists" and the liberals and from certain people (chiefly Gyurcsány, previous PM) on the opposition. And Jobbik is/was too radical, and now they are considered as turncoats by many for cooperating with the left-libs. Also the Mi Hazánk is too radical again. I think in 2022 still the Fidesz will win.

>>41342
I would never trust anyone with a nose like that

>>41374
You can open a door with that kinda knob.

>>41464
Moldova is lightyears from entering EU - even Russia would enter EU before them - so no real worries there.
It's a bit odd to see a woman emerging as a leader instead some old party-soldier, and/or mafioso, and/or alcoholic cleptocrat. It creates the illusion that things can change, especially if he has different program as the previous guys. Also maybe it adds the "here comes mommy and change your diaper you shitted full" vibes.
>Pridnestrovie was forgotten for long time
I always forget about it too.

https://thenewdaily.com.au/life/tech/2020/12/10/dutton-surveillance-bill-australia/

Australia to pass surveillance bill that'll allow children as young as 14 to be interrogated by government agents and could see journalists jailed for 5 years for refusing to reveal sources. Authorities could hack, secretly takeover, and add, copy, and delete material on computers.

Nobody replied to my thread so it probably doesn't matter that it was moved here...

Anyway, I should have mentioned before, this is the interactive map website thing that breaks down the aspects of the Power Index.

https://power.lowyinstitute.org/

>>41518
I need time to watch at least some of the video.
The power balance in the Pacific is an important matter, but since it's politics, I think it fits here tight.

https://www.csmonitor.com/Business/The-Adam-Smith-Institute-Blog/2011/0102/European-nations-begin-seizing-private-pensions

fasinating development. I thought poland hungary was more at the right spectrum of politics.

>>41533
Yeah, had that from 1998 - opened by the Socialist govt. - to 2012, when the Fidesz govt. gulped it down to keep the budget in balance. Such cases.

>>41544
I suspect it will be like when rome fell and diocletian more and more taxation until it becomes absurd

https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/there-are-just-nine-steps-from-freedom-to-socialism-to-societal-breakdown

>>41550
That article.
>EU is socialist
I really like how American liberals define socialism.

>>41515
>>41518
Looking into that. Starts good:
>reminder that legitimacy and leadership on the world stage begins with the capacity of leaders to govern well at home

>>41515
>>41518
Okay, so the sound quality was awful, two of them had bad accent was hard to understand, the old guy I could have understand fine but his part was way too quiet.
Anyway their conversations isn't that very interesting, the stats and the site is more like it.
I'm not sure if the trends can be extended very much to the future, so I'm not sure if Australia will be The Superpower of the Pacific soon or at all. I find Vietnam's growth more exciting.
On the apropos of our non-Japanese Japanese occasional visitor - and his open hatred of Korea - I do think counterbalancing China can only be done by cooperation of the "smaller" powers, and India has to be included in that. Maybe Australia can have a leading place in this.
Also probably it would also be important not to tear Asia in half, and set up two power blocks, one centered around China, and the other that oppose this one, but keeping in touch with the small countries that might gravitate toward China.
Also I hear conflicting opinions about China, on one hand she is still scary and people are noting her potential to grow more strong, on the other people try dismiss her power which based on various economic trickery, inflated via public fundings, building the ghost cities and such. I dunno about China, but EU and the US are loosing pace, it seems to me. Especially the EU looks like a farce, the US still has Silicon Valley.

>>41157
Gülenism:

An American backed, Gladio-cultivated group inserted during the 80's coup as a fundamentalist religious cult neck deep in espionage, crime, assassination, extortion, terrorism, coup, social engineering and ideological indoctrination. Their ties with CIA has long been proven, if not explicitly disclosed by the USA itself.

This is the group that have been working tooth and nail to bring down the secular republic, the very foundation of Turkey. Republicanism in Turkey is not a political perspective, it's one of the main bodies of how the state works. Gulenists have been working for decades to bring down that pillar. Not only they are against the main existence of Turkey itself, but they act as pawns of the US. They remove their opponents, extort large business owners, get paid from very dark sources, insert their people into everywhere, from American colleges to Turkish state institutions. Lately I even heard about them having part in recruiting to isis.

When I say assassination I'm not exaggerating. The word itself is probably too light to describe the violent ways they use to get rid of journalists and political figures that often brought out their crap into the public. They also had a play in the assassination of the military researchers/engineers that take place in Turkey frequently, much like the assassination of Iranian scientists. They can hide themselves as anything, from progressive islamists to Turkish nationalists. In truth they serve to nothing but global neoliberalism and their own inner monstrosities.

They mostly based upon "moderate islam though" Moderate enough to be consumarist, pro-american laptog, islamist enough to be jihadi pawns of USA. Before AKP they were infiltrating, after AKP they were specifically placed in bureucracy. Under no circumstances assume these people have any kind of patriotism, they don't they only serve themselves to suceed they serve USA.

AKP: Erdogs party. They started their journey with liboş (Turkish liberashkas, "colonial elite" people) and "moderate islamist" gülenists. They were massively pro PKK, they even called their dead equal with Turkish martryrs. The only reason why the military didn't fuck them over with coup d'etad is general staff was secretly gülenist. It was one of the reasons why the military failed to counter PKK. Because of the "don't shoot if they don't shoot against you". Many of independent sources confirm this. Eventually AKP strenghten their pro-PKK positing due to consistent and intentional military failures, with the "don't let mothers cry anymore" rhetoric. While all of these were happening, the west celebrating our democracy while our constitution were repedeatly raped.

TSK: Turkish military forces. Elite of the elites of the republic. Every state that it worths their salt has a deep state that keeps the state together, in Russia it's the intelligence, in Turkey it's the military. TSK have legal status and responsibility to protect the constitution, because common rabble won't you can trust me on that. So coups are actually LEGAL.

With Ergenekon and Balyoz kangoroo courts, the military purged worse than what happened in france during french revolution. Especially navy forces got hit so bad. It was one of the reasons why Greece so easily working on their ways to de-facto blockade us from the medditerranean and create national threat against us thanks to traitors amongst us.

Nowadays Gülenists have two proxy parties, DEVA and Gelecek party. First one targets more liberashkas and apolitical youth latter targets moderate islamists that fed up with Erdoğan (close to non existant)

>>41696

Cont

TSK is stauncly kemalists and they are the only institution that they got it right. They have pro-NATO and eurasianist officers but none of them are eager to leave NATO, it's not about liking Russia or anything like that it's just pragmatism, in 90's we had military with eurasianist tendency. Needless to say USA didn't like it when we fucked over PKK and make Abdullah Öcalan talk like a bitch. They stopped disliking our military after Iraq invasion, they started to vehemently hate it.

USA don't want us allies they want us as dominions that is checked with other dominions such as kurdistan. So of course they bitch about muh genocide even when our "invasions" are very gentle on civilian deaths. According to treaty of Laussane and international laws we have right to intervene when a non state actors (such as terrorists) run amok in next to our borders.

CHP: Atatürk's party but not so much nowadays. There are pro-PKK CIA assets in the party the most notable one is TR705. After 2010's head of CHP Deniz Baykal has forced to resign becuse he was banging a female parliment member and gülenists taped it. They replaced him with a "social democrat guy". Every secularists that has 3 digit IQ knows we are nothing without military because we're something like Ashkenazi Jews in germany(hence the "white Turks" term), without military we have no hard power so we can be easily opressed. But of course this massive retard claims they come with vote and will go with vote, he doesnt even mention about our constitution getting raped. Appereantly our constitution is there for shits and gigles and people can do everything with votes.

The parties are in Turkey are not elected by popular vote but with delagtes. Since the delagtes are alevis from Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu's hometown, they mindlessly elect him despite consistent epic fails. The guy image amongst people, even amongst CHP voters is a fucking joke.
Before AKP most of our people were secular, islamist parties at best getting %15-20 of the votes. But CHP's weak attitude and letting secularists stuck in Thrace and coastal region is the thing that let AKP stays in power. CHP especially after 2010's intentionally tried to portray Atatürk as quasi libleft figure, as you can guess most people get Atatürk wrong, CHP's voterbase amongst anatolia has been diminished because of this. In 2018 presidental elections Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu most likely betrayed Muharrem İnce, there was massive fraud going on and the guy claims the party intentionally didn't place inspectors on voting boxes.

If you don't have balls you don't get votes from outside of the coasts. Compromising in Anatolia don't work. We have autocratic mentality, these retards are disconnected from reality.


MHP: Their predecessor has been created because CHP has been deviate from nationalism and Ataturk's ideals. This what Alparslan Türkeş claims, de-facto the founder of MHP. They are islamo-turkists, even though religion and nation still clashes in this nation, so being nationalist and conservative is not a realistic option here, you'll eventually disregard one of them. But of course MHP begs to differ.

They have marginal voterbase and always been so but they used to have massively energetic youth that creates trouble for pro-soviet proxies before 80's coup. After 80's coup they were sent to prisons just like lefties because it was hard to control them.

The party has rural voterbase and populist attitude but some of the higher ups are educated enough to keep their dignity. They support de-facto elite oligarch schools for bureaucracy, I think it's one of the few things they got it right. They usually prefer USA to Russia but since it's era of eurasianists in Turkey, they just go along with the wave.

>>41697
Vatan Partisi: They got %0.22 of votes but why it is important? Because head of the party is an old KGB asset. He used to be communists but since communism is kys'd and eurasianism and EU sceptism is main ideology of Russia, he supports them. he guy used to get support of military staff that got purged with kangoroo courts but his support is kind of diminished. Massive eurasianists, openly calling to leave NATO. Despite they have meagre votes, they casually go meetings with Russia and China.
They are so eurasianists they call Uyghur Turks as terrorists and think CCP is right about them.

HDP: Pro-PKK party and don't even hide it. The only reason why they are not shut down because erdoğan scares half of the voterbase votes for CHP. They got higher votes for targeting hippie, left-liberals before that the predecessor party got %5 so they couldn't enter the parliment. Used to be Erdoğans best buddies.

İYİP: It was created as progressive MHP (dont take the word progressive as pidor WECTern word) then eventually turned into centre right since they purged elite ex military nationalists. It is rumored to become gülenist haven, but since peoples eyes have blinded by erdoğan hatred they usually disregard anything that comes from the other side.

>>41698
"Devletto Bachievelli" theory about head of MHP Devlet Bahçeli. This one is not written by me but still interesting to read.


AKP as a relatively young party most popular with rural low-income voters has always lacked the manpower needed to efficiently run the state on its own. Initially, it was the Gülen movement which provided the support in the security bureaucracy in addition to the electoral support AKP received from Kurds and liberals. This was favorable for the West as the Gülen movement is a US-based organization that wouldn't challenge Washington's interests in the region. The most obvious example is how the peace process allowed the PKK to consolidate and advance its positions before the US would begin directly supporting the PKK in Syria. This would not have been possible under the previous secularist and nationalist military establishment.

Secularists had been increasingly anti-American, especially after the Western response to the PKK conflict, the 1997 "postmodern coup," and the secularists' refusal to cooperate with the Iraq invasion. This was why the US was such a strong advocate of Turkey's EU accession process - it allowed Gülenists to fill influential positions in the security bureaucracy with thousands of its followers, and liquidate secularists from power. The Ergenekon and Balyoz trials marked the transition from Turkish secularist/nationalist control of the state to pro-US Gülenist control, while the November 2015 election with AKP and MHP aligned began a reversal process back to putting nationalists in charge.

In hindsight, some of the many early signs of AKP-Gülenist tensions slowly unfolding began with the 2010 Mavi Marmara incident, after which Fethullah Gülen gave his first ever public statement to the US press just to distance himself from the government's actions, and later more significantly in 2013, after Erdoğan planned to abolish private “prep” schools that the Gülen movement relied on for funding and new followers. Shortly after were the 2013 corruption probes, which largely targeted Halkbank for exporting gold to Iran, raising questions about whether the US was alerting Gülenists to Halkbank. It wasn't until after the fallout took place that the accused Kemalist officers in Ergenekon and Balyoz were ordered to be released in 2014. The 2015-2016 violence and timing of the 2016 coup attempt as the US was deepening its support for the PKK in Syria was another sign of the Gülen movement's close relationship with the US.

MHP's influence started growing after the June 2015 election when the peace process with the PKK was ended, and MHP continued to benefit from the AKP-Gülen rift as the July 2016 post-coup purges created a vacuum that would be filled by nationalists, leading to a total security-driven foreign policy reorientation. The fact that Erdoğan never sought MHP's support until this point speaks volumes as Gülenists are at least viewed favorably in the West and don't have a party to take votes from AKP. MHP is the opposite, and also compromises Erdoğan's Islamism. In August 2016, Operation Euphrates Shield was launched against ISIS to contain the PKK, and Aleppo was viewed as being neglected by Turkey as it fell to Assad. Further anti-PKK operations in Afrin and northeast Syria, and heavy support for Azerbaijan in Karabakh point to a nationalist priority in Turkish foreign policy. MHP supported the presidential system in 2017 to concentrate power and limit other factions from growing within the state to challenge nationalists again.

>>41699
Cont

AKP is beginning to view MHP as more of a competitor than an ally. Bahçeli forces Erdoğan further to the right, costing AKP its centrist voters to the opposition, while its right-leaning voters are increasingly favoring MHP. In the 2019 local election, MHP beat AKP in most provinces where the two fielded separate candidates. MHP's support clearly grew since the 2018 parliamentary election. Conversely, AKP's performance was much stronger than expected in the southeast.

AKP and HDP on their own are relatively compatible as both parties have mostly pious voters who believe themselves to have been oppressed under the socioethnic policies of Atatürk's republic. Erdoğan prior to 2015 was the least nationalist leader in Turkish history, and would recapture large numbers of Kurdish votes by ending his alliance with MHP, which may not be possible with nationalists now dominating the state.

Bülent Arınç recently called for the release of Osman Kavala and Selahattin Demirtaş, and soon resigned from the Presidential High Advisory Board after Bahçeli struck back. While Erdoğan publicly rejected the release of the two high-profile prisoners, some believe he's testing the waters to reset relations with Europe and find a new coalition partner.

The next CHP presidential candidate will gain the electoral support of many liberals and Kurds who in the past would have voted for AKP or other parties, while also preparing for a possible political realignment.

İmamoğlu and Yavaş are both in the spotlight as potential presidential candidates, and both are performing very well in polls against Erdoğan. If no AKP-MHP rift takes place, İmamoğlu will be CHP's presidential candidate. For economic reasons, he may not favor immediate cooperation with MHP; however, he's keeping his options open, especially if HDP fails to pass the 10% threshold. İmamoğlu has vocalized support for Turkish security interests important to MHP and even issued a respectful commemoration for Alparslan Türkeş. If tensions grow between AKP and MHP, Yavaş will be CHP's candidate, and Bahçeli will sabotage Erdoğan's presidential campaign in favor of the Yavaş-Akşener alliance.

Erdoğan gets called a dictator by clueless observers when a closer look reveals he has no more control over the state now than he did before the 2016 failed coup. Some five years since using “nationalist” as an insult, he's being held hostage by Bahçeli. Turkey has made real gains against the PKK, but at the expense of relations with the West, causing a weaker economy. MHP will not allow another peace process even if it costs Erdoğan the next presidential election. After all, Bahçeli could easily switch over to Yavaş and Akşener, two former MHP members.

tl;dr: AKP is being held hostage, and any steps in favor of realignment with liberals and Kurdish nationalists will end in Bahçeli dealing a decisive blow to the party.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=2fC7TGZirNQ [Embed]

the streetshitters are leading the way

>>41698
>>41700
Thanks for the overview

>>41696 >>41697 >>41698
>>41699 >>41700
Okay. So.
Essentially:
- AKP, CHP, MHP, HDP, and IYIP are in the National Assemply;
- Vatan Partisi isn't but has an interesting background;
- Gülenists aren't one party, but a movement which have influence in many parties;
- the Turkish Armed Forces have a great pull, due to it's prestige and power can influence everything, and potentially capable of reset the chess pieces with coup.
It wasn't very clear for me which parties represent what political ideologies or streams, but religious people tend to vote AKP, MHP, and HDP, while secularists CHP and the others. No?
Also while the state is secular, Islamist parties have large influence, even Erdo as president rides on the back of their support. Correct me here if I'm wrong.
The Kurdish minority is also large enough for parties seeking legislative role to want their support. AKP managed to get that last time, but it seems CHP is also gaining grounds.
Atatürk is generally respected by everyone, but the parties trying to exploit his popularity by explaining his work, beliefs, and character, differently to suit their own agendas.

What are the key issues in the country? I see a couple of dichotomies like: secularism vs. islamism, western orientation vs. eurasianism; but are these the issues which decides elections? How frequent phenomenon is just to voting against a person or a party, instead of actually supporting one for its program and ideology?

>>41722
>It wasn't very clear for me which parties represent what political ideologies or streams, but religious people tend to vote AKP, MHP, and HDP, while secularists CHP and the others. No?
A bit more complicated than that.

Most AKP voters nowadays drink, seem like moralist but vote due to personality cult and grateful to erdoğan because before erdoğan they were pure fucks, now they are islamic bourgeuise. At BEST %20 of of this country is real deal islamist and they mainly vote for erdo, rest of the voters vote for the reasons I stated above.

MHP also conservative and rural but again they are not islamists only seem so due to populism and rural voterbase. These people dont have an issue with laicism.

HDP started to go for the lib left but still get votes of the ultra conservative kurds, they are the only group still practice girl circumstition though the practice marginalized. Half of the HDP voters are conservative in a way that make avarage AKP and MHP voter seem like hippies. Because.. ashirets, tribal clans still exist, they still do honor killings and stuff. Their neigbourhoods are no gone zone especially for women. But other half of the voters are hippies, lib lefts or just regular kurds.

As for CHP yes they are overwhelmingly secularists but bear in mind alevi fanatics exist, they still tend to not marry even when they stop believing alevism. How do I know? I got alevi gf and met with her relatives, their taboos are extremely hard to get rid of due to centuries of ottoman pressure. By no means they are fundies but I just wanted to make a reminder.

>Also while the state is secular
Afaik secular means something wordly. We are laicist, we seek to regulate the religion so schizo religious orders don't pop up like mushrooms after a rainfall. Believe me we need it. With laicism we try to secularize our people even today.

>he Kurdish minority is also large enough for parties seeking legislative role to want their support. AKP managed to get that last time, but it seems CHP is also gaining grounds.
Yeah correct.

>Atatürk is generally respected by everyone,
Except for islamists and seperatist kurds. Most people dont understand what he aimed for, his ideas but general respect is there.

>but the parties trying to exploit his popularity by explaining his work, beliefs, and character, differently to suit their own agendas.
You got it better than avarage Türk.

>What are the key issues in the country?
Well just like everyone we have de facto hawks and doves.

Secularists vs islamists

"Atlanticists" vs eurasianists vs "do whatever works"

nationalism vs islamism (the term ummah clashes with modern nations)

turkism vs kurdism

modernism vs traditionalism

state controlled economy (I mean the key things, not in a socialist way) vs privatization advocates

kemalism vs liberalism seperatist kurds and islamists loved to portray themselves as liberal progressives, I only wrote this one so dont suprise when you encounter one, liberalism is almost non existent in these lands

"TSK do your duty" guys vs "just vote" bros

Lastly I want to note about Ataturk, to understand him better you need to read his books. They are good because unlike, hitler, lenin, marxs books Atatürk wrote his books after he actually tried and successfully completed things. His books are anti thesis of pure ideology. Also let me remind you one of his books are de facto illegal in schools and party cencored. So don't assume after his death we didn't deviate, we went as far as partially cencoring and banning his books in schools. Fun fact, majority of the self proclaimed kemalists didn't even hear about this.

>>41723
>they still tend to not marry
don't marry with people who don't descend from alevis.*

>>41723
Okay, I think it got clearer.
>You got it better than avarage Türk.
We have similar when current parties try to appropriate the heritage of the 19th century reformers. But I bet all the countries are the same in this aspect.

>>41701
He had a little problem to close down and secure the pincer from opening. It's nice again compliant offenders but even this guy they performed this exhibition had to raise his arm, and I bet most of the actual offenders won't be this helpful.

>>41699
How do the controlled Syrian rebels factor in? Merely a way to cut costs on occupation forces in Syria, at the expense of letting thugs roam around shooting each other and harassing the population? Would there be interest in a purely TSK occupation of northern Syria, or even handing those territories to the Syrian government?

hungary strong

>>41734
I should have thought about the Syrian aspect. Good to see others aware.

>>41737
Kex.

Rio de Janeiro's mayor has been arrested nine days before his mandate ends. By the way the governor was also arrested some months ago, raising to 6 the number of governors imprisoned at some point.

>>41730
>We have similar when current parties try to appropriate the heritage of the 19th century reformers. But I bet all the countries are the same in this aspect.
Of course but this is the norm now, even amongst the culturally higher ups.

>>41734
People don't like when our soldiers die so we use syrian rebel proxies especially in idlib. Why we do it despite we can reach an agreement with Assad in exchange of eradicating kurdish seperatists in syria?

Because Erdoğan factor, he has personal bugurt when it comes to Sisi and Assad.

>Would there be interest in a purely TSK occupation of northern Syria

I don't know why anyone thinks that, for that we need allies to cover us diplomatically but we have none. Being a rogue state is not good even for a guy who only caring about his seat. So no, there wont be an permanent occupation. I think eventually we will hand it over in exchange of forbiding a terror state being created next to our borders.

>>41747
>for that we need allies to cover us diplomatically but we have none.
This is just recent turn in the relations, but still Turkey is an important NATO member, so she still has US, and for long in the past she had strategic relations with Israel, which still can return. Well, this isn't a comment on the possibility of occupation, just on relations.

I have another question. You wrote that coastal population favors liberal views (well what counts there as liberal), while further inside Anatolia people accept more autocratic governing style. What is the root cause of this? Economical factors? Educational?
Any other political divisions in the country which shows itself in geography?

>>41750
> but still Turkey is an important NATO member
We are wanted to be contained. Do you really think people who supports seperatists in my country will support a permanent land grab by us assuming we will actually do it? No chance. I know Syrian unity has been jeopardized but we need to support their unity to balance Israel.

>while further inside Anatolia people accept more autocratic governing style.
Coastal people would support a secularist nationalist coup they are not just not conservative. They are not liberals neither define themselves as so.

> What is the root cause of this? Economical factors? Educational?
Though you got it wrong, to some degree I get what you are saying. Coastal people save for the black sea. A few of the regions were cosmopolitan urban centers and after the Balkan War millions of Turks and muslim europeans had to migrate anatolia due to ethnic cleansings. Eventually urban centers periphery also developed. Anyway, these people were better educated and have better sense of nationality-patriotism compared to lethargic consarvatives of anatolia. Ottoman Empire by all means was a balkan centric state, we turn our eyes to depopulated, poor, desolate, dormant anatolia because we have nothing left. Nowadays almost half of the ethnic Turks are originating from European part of the Empire. Forget about schools there were barely enough masjid (small mosque) in anatolian villages.

Russian empire is usually seen as extremely backwards but even them developed education and farming industry much better than us.

>>41756
>We are wanted to be contained.
The "no border changes ever" is a worldwide policy enforced by a wall of concernedly staring bureaucrats and only those are exempt who can rely on their own strength to execute the landgrab while shrugging off all the strict looks of said bureaucrats.

I was curious about regional distribution of voters, and what causes the differences.

>>41768
>I was curious about regional distribution of voters, and what causes the differences.
They mostly settled down in coastal centers and their peripheries. I forgot to add that one.

>The "no border changes ever" is a worldwide policy enforced by a wall of concernedly staring bureaucrats
Which is why it won't happen. We are far from being that powerful.

>>41366
In the forming cabinet the minister of sports will be Hungarian. Not a key ministry unlike finance or something, but better than nothing.
The dude, Novák Károly Eduárd, is a Paralympic gold medalist in cycling, won in London 2012.

What a minister of sports does? What can he do?

>>41793
"Those who can, do. Those who can't, govern. And those who can't govern, govern sports." :^)

>>41801
That explains how Deutsch Tamás - our sport minister during the first Fidesz government, 1998-2002 - managed to get that seat.
Maybe I can have a shot.

>>41818
>Maybe I can have a shot.

Go for it!
Rooting for you bernd :-DDDDDDD

It's over

>>42159
So they don't have a helicopter pad at the white house they just have those three concrete circles for the wheels it seems, very clever if they can manage to land on it like that, it looks like maybe they can't quite though.

>>42159
What's he gonna do now? Go back to his usual business whatever that may be? He has a new political persona and many people listens to him (never mind if it baloney or not).

>>42160
Yeah, faggots destroying that lawn.

>>42161
>What's he gonna do now? Go back to his usual business whatever that may be? He has a new political persona and many people listens to him (never mind if it baloney or not).
He loves attention so he won't get a quiet retirement. Sadly he can't post funny stuff on social media anymore. His bold writing style will never be forgotten.

Now in motion.

>>42165
How he's gonna keep in touch with his fanbase?
I think the alternatives, Gab, Parler, Telegram are under, hmm let's call it attack in the name of simplicity and straightforwardness.

>>42171
Also the people on these platforms (any maybe even the platforms themselves) got labeled as nazi or some such. I'm sure he does not want that label to himself.
His kids too are in the center of attention.

>>42275
They should use an Osprey so the President crashes and dies.

>>42275
Well, Trump is the old president. He only gets the old vehicle.

China implemented a law that enables Chinese coast guards to fire on foreign vessels in what they claim are their waters.

I can't see this ending badly.

>>42296
An armed conflict soon, I can imagine

>>42296
So evil LMAO. I guess the US should send more carrier fleets to the other side of the pacific, taking a stroll in the China Sea, running them right through the mainland-island straits, why not. I can't see that ending badly.

>>42313
Hopefully china can avoid a confrontation. But as things are going I suppose the empire might be getting increasingly restless and reckless, seeing how china continue to prosper and the west self-destructs, it may be that they will in fact want to provoke one eventually. Unfortunately, the signs coming from the new US administration are not exactly encouraging.

>>42343
They already did send a carrier strike force to the region but that was due to increased Communist incursions into the airspace of real China. The Law takes affect on Monday, the strike force will still be in the region. Additionally, even Japan is getting agitated now. The Senkaku islands fall within China's claims and there is talk of now militarising them. China is behaving quite illogically, this new law is only going to further militarise every state with claims and waters within the nine dash line. This on top of already antagonising Australia and India. The US barely needs to get involved at this point.

what is china doing....

do they want war?...

>>42351
Maybe they're just bored from the months of being on lockdown and are doing this to get people's attention.

AKP wants to change constitution, which they need %67 votes of the parliment and they dont have it, even with the given alliance with MHP. Most likely they will use the need of new constitution as an excuse for an early election.

Why would they want it, you might ask.

To:

reassure trust in the eyes of London banks

prove to Biden and EU that he is still the peoples choice

to reverse the discontent inside AKP

secure another term before it is too late. If this election doesn’t happen there will be mass exodus to Gelecek(ex gülenist conservative) and Deva (supposedly liberal conservatives that are playing for the Gen Z) in 2022. It is impossible for AKP to survive until 2023

BONUS:

to get rid of MHP sucking AKP’s power turning erdogan into a lame duck. Cumhur Alliance will be disbanded in case of an early election because both sides want more power. Also AKP wants to make semi-reforms, release Demirtaş, get close with west while MHP wants full autocracy and an Eurasian alliance.

But

But without MHP, AKP can't even cheat in the elections, it's almost certain if give MHP middle finger, they will lose. They want to monkey branch I get that but current situation is really against them. Lately MHP pull out a 4D chess move about giving a speech about closing HDP, if AKP strictly opposes that MHP get out of the situation even stronger.

>>42398
What are they changing about the constitution? Are they making Sultans hereditary?

>>42399
Excuse for new election. "I just need a new constitution, the current system dont let me pull a 4D chess manouver, I totally have a brilliant idea to save you guys"

That was basically the argument for new presidental system, people has fallen for it and gave Erdog dictatorial powers, but right now it worked against AKP interests, mostly worked for MHP's interests and people are pissed. AKP support is all time low since 2002.

>>42398
Are they confident enough that they can win an election right now? Til 2022 much can change, they could be a better position than now. If they believe there's only downwards from now, they must be sure a 2/3 majority is unreachable, but are they sure an at least 50% + 1 seat is a realistic goal?
I assume as head of state, Erdogan can call for a new election anytime he wants it.

>>42403
>Are they confident enough that they can win an election right now?
No.

>Til 2022 much can change, they could be a better position than now.
Maybe but it is unlikely and Erdo has already smashed the panicked button.

> but are they sure an at least 50% + 1 seat

Not seat but popular vote. Unless you take %50+1 of the votes say bye bye to your presidental throne, ahem I mean seat.

>I assume as head of state, Erdogan can call for a new election anytime he wants it.
Yes he can but parliment can also do that with %60 majority. But the parliment thing seems impossible.

>>42398
>>42400
What with happen to the average person living in Turkey if AKP follows through on the constitution change?

>>42416
Civil war.

What's the outcome of AKP getting bad results but not MHP? And what if both of them don't win a lot of votes?

>>42438
MHP would try to switch sides as they did before. They only buddied up Erdo because they manage to control Erdo with ~%10 of the votes. They keep him in check enough to not let him cave in to USA and HDP again. Not to mention they solidifed their positions in bureaucracy. There is absolutely no reason for MHP go with the sinking ship. They would try to ally with CHP-İYİP but what matters now is who is the president. You don't need majority of the parliment to rule unopposed anymore, if your president candidate takes %50+1 of the popular rule, you're the new absolute monarch president.

>>42452
>popular rule,
popular vote

>>42435
It's hard to imagine in Turkey something would break out like in Libya or Syria. From here the country seems more stable than that. I can see brief clashes, I remember somewhat the last coup attempt (in 2016 me thinks), but even that didn't felt that serious. I read lots and lots of people were arrested.

>>42452
So MHP has options to form coalitions.

>>42435
Are you the regular Turkeybernd we always get?

Regardless, hope it doesn't come to that?

>>42458
Yeah, since Erdo wants to be sure I don't think he will force others hand. He always guarantees his safety before taking a step, too paranoid.

>So MHP has options to form coalitions.
Yes but they wont change sides until their influence somehow dwindled. They are more pragmatic rather than being true idealistic nationalists. MHP knows the opposition might need them in future but the opposition does not know that. They need insiders from bureaucracy if they want a change without bloodshed.

Here is our parliments situation, you need 360 congressman to make referandum about constitutional change. Guess what xD MHP forced some HDP members so they wont able to reach the number, at this situation even if AKP tried hard to simp for HDP, the numbers are not enough, thanks to MHP 4D chess. So here is the situation AKP+MHP is not enough to get the number, neither AKP+HDP. If Erdoğan makes a constitution, he will probably needs to get support İYİ party but why would they do that is beyond me. Maybe they will prepeare for soft transition where Erdo saves his ass, leaves the government to İYİ+MHP(??) and leaves his buddies for lynches so people get the blood they want?

>>42475
Yes I am.

>>42493
>MHP forced some HDP members

MHP jailed some HDP parliment members*

**Cant reformat as I'm unable to delete the post*

>>42493
>Yes I am.

Welcome back bernd. I thought you were gone forever

The Supreme Court ruled Lula's case was outside of judge Moro's jurisdiction and therefore he can run for President next year. It did not, however, made any ruling on whether he's guilty or innocent.

>>42864
Judicial system in Brazil is all about rehabilitation, eh? No judgement that generates anxiety, just acceptance and helping hand to become good, honest president, as he was inspired to be before his momentary weakness and minor slip.

>>42864
>It did not, however, made any ruling on whether he's guilty or innocent.
Hmm. Does that mean process has to be repeated?

>>42865
>become good, honest president
Not sure about the first two but the last part might well happen, Bolsonaro has suffered too much political attrition, only a last minute burst of national prosperity might save him.

>>42870
More or less, I raised the hypothesis to a Law student a couple years ago and that's what he said would have to happen.

The funniest thing about this case is that years before some of Lula's properties (beachside triplex apartment and ranch) came into criminal investigation they were plainly mentioned in the media as belonging to him, and only later did their connection become controversial.

>>42889
>The funniest thing about this case is that years before some of Lula's properties (beachside triplex apartment and ranch) came into criminal investigation they were plainly mentioned in the media as belonging to him, and only later did their connection become controversial.
Yeah, I can imagine.
Can't name a specific case myself right now but sounds exactly like I have heard such cases on the news here myself before.

Here >>43352 were these questions.
>Why were there so many political movements a few years ago compared to now? What changed?
>And should bernds perhaps start a political movement of their own in the future?
Good topic.
I think back then political activism was more serious. For example people weren't just voters but frequently members of parties, which had giant memberships. Like NSDAP had membership in the millions, the German communists similarly. And one way was organizing people is creating movements, they actively did stuff together strengthening the bond between the members, made their voice heard, made changes, shaping their environment, helped each other. Also they clashed with other movements, in physical confrontations. They were defensive organizations as well.
Sometimes even today movements are created. On the Hungary there was the Magyar Gárda for example for the Jobbik (but was banned). But the Fidesz also made one, more "civil", less militaristic (I think these ain't exist anymore because they don't need them).
I think in the US, this Q thing also such. But I bet in the US they have many more, much smaller.
People are getting atomized, alienated, separated. They don't trust, and they don't even have the initiative spirit to do something by themselves. Especially not something that is "dangerous". They might sperg out about daily politics in the comment section on youtube, or on facebook, but beyond that...
I dunno.

A Bernd political movement, or any political movement, just made by a Bernd?

>>43423
A vanguard party of Bernds that will lead the masses to a revolution.

>>43511
>>43512
Thinking maybe the age is low because they have more colored and muslim youth. Another way of gerrymandering or whatever.

I dunno how reliable this list is:
https://www.embassy-worldwide.com/country/syria/

>>43817
>It seems the parties themselves are pretty similar, all revolve around Arab socialism and Arab nationalism.
>I dunno how much this can be called a free election, but who else is in the country to offer an alternative?

That's the case in Australia too, we have liberal and labour.

>>43819
My problem here is parties turning into not standing for anything, just governing party doing things and opposition finds flaws on them in a way or another and say something different. No matter of ideology, or principles.
And then the issue with democracies that Westerners appropriated it saying it's only democracy is liberal democracy. And suddenly the talk was about illiberal democracies, and how Orbán built one, but if the opposition would came to power would that still be illiberal? Or this just changes with the wind? And not just Westerners labeled, but even Orbán had a nod at one point, a half sentence about liberal democracies and things can be done otherwise. Just an addition to empty words, nonexistent definitions, not making a stand, and a whole lotta confusion.

In Syria I assume the war was fought in political opponents, and one (many) side was defeated, and only one left on the ring. I don't believe the election happened in the rebel occupied regions, like Idlib, so essentially voters could picked from Assad and whoever was on his side, or was too insignificant to become rebel.

>>43820
I think that is a part of democracy in general, it seems to always happen that the opposition party will claim to not do x thing that the ruling party is doing then they get voted in and still do it anyway.

It also often seems that it's not so much that a party stands for something and so takes a stance based on that but that a party is supported by certain interests and so takes a stance based on that. A good example would be here in Australia, you have the liberals that are supported by mining companies and other such interests so take actions based on that and the labour party that is supported by labour unions and so takes action based on that, even when it goes against what they actually want and it's actually causing factionalism in both parties with some in both parties wanting to focus on climate change but being prevented by the respective factions(labour unions don't want mines to close because it will get rid of many high paying low skilled jobs and of course mining companies don't want them to close for the obvious reason).

>>43821
Parties do their job when they represent interests, because that's how parties become existence, that's their purpose.
When Athens fought against Persia, and they had to decide how, two parties emerged. One was formed by the landowners, those who lived from the rural lands, from gardens and herds, their interest was a strong army to field and stop the Persians before they plunder, burn, and butcher everything. The other was made by the craftsmen and traders, who worked in the city, who moved the goods with ships and sold them on far away lands, they wanted a strong navy that could face the Persians and prevent them from cutting the sea lanes. They faced a problem which they offered different solutions to, based on their differing interests. If they had a problem which threatened the interests the same, I'm sure they could come up with a solution together that would benefited everyone.
In your example the Labour and the Liberals found a common ground not wanting to close the mines, but some/many in those parties feels that isn't in their best interest so this leads to struggle within the parties. This is the problem of large "reservoir" parties that they gather many smaller groups with different interests and views.
Maybe parties should be more fluent, changing, volatile, always breaking up and reforming, to really represent the people behind them. But the tendency is that we have politicians only living from that business, who promote their own brand, which should be recognizable. Maybe never changing too - else they could be called hypocrites and turncoats, who change their mind at every two steps - or at least with the illusion of consistency.

>>43823
Parties existed through the ages, they were there in feudalism too, the aristocracy, nobility, priesthood were divided along their own agenda, interests, and family ties.
I think the rising political ideologies, first with the Big Three (what I always say, Liberalism, Socialism, Nationalism), gave lasting lines to follow, relatively constant views on how to solve problems. But they have the problem that these ideas can go against interests, or even common sense. Or the other way around people can go against principles which they should follow based on their ideological preference (like some liberals wanting to restrict freedom of speech).
The Big Three is just not enough, and now myriad of tiny ideologies exist with their own particularities.
And there's ofc, the dichotomies, left-right, or conservative-progressive, also creating divisions, and raising the expectation from parties to follow such "values".
And lastly populism also makes things blurry and from what I can tell it isn't really about anything, just to "win as much people for our party as we can" and what they say changes with the wind. And this is why it sometimes used as a nicer way of saying demagoguery.

New phenomenon appeared in the politics of Hungary - maybe it's a start of a new practice -, the opposition parties are preparing for primary elections.
No dominant party can challenge the Fidesz's rule, so the opposition have to resort to cooperation no matter what ideology they (claim to) represent. But they have to make dealings: who will be their candidate for the position of Prime Minister? They want to decide this with the primaries.
I also suspect this is a way for them to appear relevant in the media, this pandemic really shot down every other topic than criticizing the government from all the possible angles how they aren't handling the situation well. So they're making big noise of this.
I really don't wanna go through who is who right now, I just wanted to write something. Maybe tomorrow.
The thing will done by October 23.

>>43823
The issue is that who they are actually representing and who they claim to represent are so different. These actions don't benefit the vast majority of voters nor are they in the interests of the majority of voters. They just make things up about how it will be good for the nation which doesn't stand up for scrutiny and even people in government institutions speak out about it(this is happening with the gas led recovery, energy institutions, state governments and economists are saying it's ludicrous. Who suggested a gas led Recovery? Well the committee for Covid recovery was made up of people who stood to directly benefit from gas).

At least aristocratic parties did not pretend they were representing the people, democracy is a farce.

>>43879
Yeah, representing the interests of just a thin group of people is a general problem.
I dunno how it goes elsewhere but here it's a problem that representatives cannot be called back (easily or at all) if they ain't doing what their voters wanted from them when they were elected. This is part of the problem. If in a constituency peeps could say "hey we saw you ain't voting in the legislation how we want you to, you are done, we send someone else" it might be a bit better.
On the other hand here representatives can gain seats via party lists without them having to compete in the constituencies. Whom would recall them?

>>44037
Political activism demanded way more involvement back then, but more risks also. Even mortal risk. Just putting a message out there meant actually going out to the streets and meeting places, talk to people, argue with them. Quite a good description is what Hitler gave in the Mein Kampf how he got into politics, as young men. Visiting the Austrian legislation, arguing with workers, etc. For the violent nature of the movements the NSDAP is also a great example.
Another approach to politics was Szálasi's. He was part of the system, and he did a "tour" in the country, see how the people lived, he talked to them, and wrote a study describing their poverty and hardships. Then he passed this study upstairs into one of the ministry's where it went ignored. After that he started his Arrow Cross Party, and Hungarist movement, he got jailed as a radical, a potential left-wing radical I think. The war was turbulent times ofc, so that we can consider uncommon circumstances. After it he was executed by the communists (well I think we still had Republic, and not People's Republic, so was executed by "democratic" forces).
Communist movements were also tough since the beginning. The strikes frequently meant violent clashes, with police, or other political groups. And then by the end of WWI they sparked the revolutions and violence.

So Slovenia is led by a party with similar outlines as Fidesz. No wonder they supported our govt against Brussels in the question of our new child protection law. Although I remember when the migrant crisis came, Slovenia took similar stance to ours. Since then the path of the two leadership converged more perhaps.

>>44261
SDS has been working hard to get a strong alliance with Fidesz. I recall that for the last elections, they actually had their promotion videos produced in Hungary, and I think they even managed to get Orbán to guest one of their pre election conferences.

>>44071
>But these guys, these shooters, aren't force people to do anything, just go out and try to kill people

Terrorist is just a term like "bad guy" now. Classic wars in Post-WW2 world are forbidden "on paper", so most of conflicts in last 50 years are so-called military operations, where word "terrorist" became synonym of enemy combatant. It is easy to label everyone now as terrorist, because common person would easily understand that.

Or "freedom fighter" if it is good guy, but in case of domestic terrorism freedom is already achieved, so only terrorists are against it.

>>44262
Orbán became a weird gravitational center around here. And the more they demonize him in the Western media, the more they blow scandals from barely nothing he becomes more and more relevant. This makes Hungary relevant too - geopolitically the Carpathian basin is at the meeting point of three way road west-east-south it's the Mediterranean of Europe... kek so I believe there are people who are calculating with that, but now on paper too and in the minds of Euroepeons.

>>44271
Another empty phrase born. Can be combined with fascist freely.

The possibly crypto-Maoist candidate won the Peruvian presidential election by a narrow margin.

>>44492
Possibly?
How his crypto-Maoism manifests?
How this will influence South Am. relations?

>>44492
>possibly crypto-Maoist
Dude, he's pretty much an ethnonationalist. But since he's "brown" everyone thinks this makes him a leftist and probably Maoist as well.

In fact, his positions make him quite close to PiS in Poland – are they crypto-Maoists too?

>>44495
>How his crypto-Maoism manifests?
He's possibly tied to the Shining Path.
>How this will influence South Am. relations?
Not much immediately but Peru should shift closer to the Venezuelan side.

>>44497
>PERÚ LIBRE es un partido de izquierda socialista, marxista-leninista-mariateguista.
Note they write this comparing themselves to two other organizations, which they describe as social democrats.
http://perulibre.pe/diferencias-entre-peru-libre-nuevo-peru-y-frente-amplio/

But, of course, precisely because he's brown he's liable to being romanticized by Europeans. His party might be self-proclaimed Marxist-Leninist but it isn't leftist? Maybe they're center-right Marxist-Leninists or something.
A moderate government is likely but if he feels powerful enough a hard turn to the left is not out of the question.

>>44500
Yeah his party does have the history and connection to Marxist-Leninist or Maoist movements. But so did Italian Fascists – a lot of them came from ex-Marxists who changed their views during WW1.
Oddly enough all one can gather from this is that, to people, self-labels and historical alignment matters more when assigning sides than actual positions. PiS is right wing because they opposed Soviet Union, Pedro Castillo is left wing because he is opposed to American stooges, the Fujimoris – both now and through ties to the Shining Path.

>>44503
It's not the same party in Poland and Peru with different labels, they're completely distinct political forces which by historical accident converged into similar programmes at the same time. The Peruvians adopted their programme by evaluating the current situation in light of Marxism-Leninism, unlike the Poles. As the years pass and things change they'll think of something else, it'll still be in light of their leftist theoretical background but not necessarily similar to what their erstwhile Polish counterpart now thinks. Given regional precedents a hard leftward push is a perfectly plausible course of action for a party like that to take.

>>44492
I'm reading on the bloke's Wiki page that he tried to calm foreign businesses that won't be any nationalization of their assets. How real is the possibility of that these days? It is really plausible that someone waltz in and say, hey now your shit is state property from now on?

>>44508
>How real is the possibility of that these days? It is really plausible that someone waltz in and say, hey now your shit is state property from now on?
Not immediately, he'd first had to overcome opposition in Congress and the courts. One way to speed up that process is to call a Constituent Assembly, which is exactly what he intends to do, though he won't necessarily use it for that.

>>44503
>>44505
Taking positions compared to the other parties in the country matters too.
Nowadays however claiming which school of ideology we subscribe and taking positions in matters at hand are different things. Theory and practice.
The issues countries face in our day and age also aren't the same which gave birth to the classical ideologies, and also the possibilities are narrowed down where solutions could be looked for, actions to pick.
Plus the divide between the parties or the existence of the parties feels like a joke. Faux-opponents, flaring up the emotions of the voters, while the politicians joke around with each other and telling anecdotes at the buffet of the parliament building during brakes.

>>44513
Marxism-Leninism is a fringe belief and drives away voters in the average democracy. Castillo could've had a much less narrow margin if he had ditched his far left label. For his party to cling on to it despite this, it must have a strong internal faction opposed to a change in label.
Then the campaign promises themselves are already part of the label, rather than a guarantee that actual governance will be as described. Regional precedent is that a very left-wing turn is an option, and this might be more likely for a party already embracing a far left self-description.

>>44990
Fugg, O'Toole's pic had some errors did not upload.

Scraped couple of articles. It seems these are the main issues the discourse is centered around in Canada:
1. national debt, economic recovery - due to pandemic "management" they racked up record amount of debt (by far this is the most important question)
2. vaccine mandates - Libs for, Cons against
3. childcare - many women became unemployed due to covid, Libs promising money to spend, Cons offer tax credits to pay daycare I don't get it, if mom is at home unemployed how she cannot babysit her own kid?, I mean yeah give them money or give tax cut (and not "tax credit") to their men, sure, but stay home but put the kid in daycare that's utter idiotism. Raise your children people!
4. expensive housing
5. climate change - forest fires and drought - Libs want emission cuts, Cons are oil and gas advocates
6. rebuilding healthcare system
7. UBI
8. Indigenous reconciliation

>>44992
>1. national debt, economic recovery - due to pandemic "management" they racked up record amount of debt (by far this is the most important question)
The budget will balance itself.

>>44993
As global economy stabilizes Canadian economy will too. I don't think national economies matter at all at this point.

>>44990
>Womanman
kek
>green (is this a valid political ideology now?
they green (globohomo (neoliberal (trotkyists)))

>>44997
Hmm. Fresh air, clean environment, green nature, singing birds, comfy weather (not too hot in the summer, abundant snow in winter)... what's not to like? So all our parties likes to dabble in this, although two try to appropriate the issue for themselves, but they just started as a liberal party to stand into the gap caused by the fall of our previous liberal party (and the new party split in two), so I can't really take them seriously in that question (either).

Are Russian greens in the Duma? What are their chances?
Also sounds like they are livelihood politicians who found a niche they can earn money with.

We have Greens here too, they are very left leaning to the point that people sometimes call them watermelons(green on the outside, red on the inside). Currently they have 9 seats in the upper house and 1 in the lower house, plus they actually have a coalition state government in ACT with the Labour party. So they are a reasonably sized party.

>>45002
>Are Russian greens in the Duma? What are their chances?

Not in Duma, and no chances at all. Although Russia really has serious ecological issues that needs to address, this is not real party, but a meme.

>>45068
The only interesting thing about blockchain-based votes is that, with a public chain one can cryptographically check each and every individual vote. Doesn't mean votes can't be tampered with (they could be reassigned or fraudulent votes could be injected), but theoretically the public could check it. And not just personally but for example multiple third-parties could through an internet interface provide a "validation" service for the public and aggregate the results
Good: seeing liberasts crushed
Bad: ldpr shrinking, scum like yabloko getting 750k is still too much

>>45070
>The only interesting thing about blockchain-based votes is that, with a public chain one can cryptographically check each and every individual vote.

Yes. But problem that blockchain isn't public, and owners can replace it with different one if they want to publish it. Proving something from modified blockchain is pretty hard thing if it is modified properly, especially considering that personal data must remain anonymous.

Technically there is no real way to make elections transparent with remote electronic vote, because there are multiple ways to tamper the data. If voting chain is controlled by one actor, there always a possibility to modify the results and external observer wouldn't prove it with evidence (excluding internal info from system that may be leaked, but this is different story). Having second independent entity that may check votes from very start also isn't possible by political reasons too (no one would allow completely separate entity to mess with voting process).

Maybe phasing out anonymous vote may help to identify some cheating, but this way has pretty bad outcomes in different fields.

>a "validation" service for the public and aggregate the results

Problem that even if person claims that his vote was changed, there is no hard proofs. Anyone can claim that he's voted for different party, but what evidence he can provide? So it may be interesting to see if your vote is same as you remember, but court wouldn't listen. Even recordings of voting is not a proof now, and also breaks anonymous nature of elections.

>Bad: ldpr shrinking, scum like yabloko getting 750k is still too much

LDPR is basically an ER nowadays. They vote always as ER (and government). Times when their party was somewhat independent are gone. Zhirinovsky is pretty fun person and sometimes says rational things, but their parliament voting policies are nowhere near to his public image. He is also old and not that energetic anymore, and without him it is mostly party of nonames. It is hard to imagine how they will act when he'll gone.

Yabloko is also already pro-goverment party contrary to it's public image. Yavlinsky gets money from some government-related entities, and their opposition claims are mild (i.e. they mostly not really oppose to anything). Considering them as something "bad" is too serious - they are empty shell. Their times are gone like in case with LDPR.

Russian government actually very good in politics, because it completely cleaned political field from any real and serious opposition that may be represented at elections. Parties are tamed, and non-party opposition are incompetent idiots.

>>45071
>But problem that blockchain isn't public, and owners can replace it with different one if they want to publish it.
Hm. Well, I don't know how they implemented the system. I just assumed that the votes (blocks) were cryptographically blinded and thus the whole thing could be published without compromising anonymity. An oracle basically.
>Proving something from modified blockchain is pretty hard thing if it is modified properly
>Problem that even if person claims that his vote was changed, there is no hard proofs.
That would also not be the case in my just-now imagined system. I was guessing that the voter would, as part of the voting process, get back a signed certificate with something like the block hash and a blinded MAC of his party choice, his device verifies it, he approves it cross-sign it and submit it. Thus he would have a certificate to compare against what's found in the blockchain, which would prevent replacing the whole chain
>Technically there is no real way to make elections transparent with remote electronic vote
I work with computers and I have always known that electronic voting is a bad meme (paper-vote tampering at least requires a certain degree of distributed real-world effort by meat-and-bones fallible people, while an electronic voting system can theoretically be arranged for highly-centralized tampering, also software is such insecure shit). However, I thought a verifiable system (like blockchain-based) was at least interesting
>Maybe phasing out anonymous vote
Yeah, that's no good. In fact, even the "oracle" system I envisioned is problematic due to being vulnerable to rubberhose cryptanalysis

>>45068
So this is for the seats in the Duma.
I like those systems which adjust the seat distribution to reflect the people's will better.
What's that pine tree with ~500 000 votes?
>Half of single-seats (vote for person, not party) in Moscow were won by non-government candidates after "paper" part of voting, but they all suddenly lost after electronic part.
It isn't suspicious at all, I wouldn't be concerned...

>>45071
>>45072
This I found dystopic. Imagine a future voting system where you tap on your phone and then you get automatic results with no possible way of knowing that how the whole society voted. You could be happy if your party/candidates won, it would be like a lottery or some shit.
Even worse, just by these descriptions you guys gave, the logic and the structure of system itself - and its safety guards guaranteeing its cleanness - would be so impenetrable by everyone but the few designers, people could only do just believe it's doing its job fair and square, without any tampering.
People would be detached from governance entirely. There would be some talking heads in the media, introduced as opposing politicians, and people would get some data they can't validate, issues they can disagree on with each other, and a button they can tap on frantically. Wait we are already having this, minus the button.
>oracle
Exactly.

>>45078
I get the quip, nicely said, but I'll just pedantically clarify that:
- a cryptographic system with a public blockchain, if such a thing could be successfully designed and securely implemented (lol), although probably impenetrable for untrained people, could be susceptible of formal or quasi-formal mathematical proofing and algorithmic validation. Which is what would make it "at least interesting"
- "oracle" is a technical term

>>45082
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blockchain_oracle
This?

>>45072
>Hm. Well, I don't know how they implemented the system. I just assumed that the votes (blocks) were cryptographically blinded and thus the whole thing could be published without compromising anonymity. An oracle basically.

They implemented this as intended, real blockchain with some anonymized tokens as id. Problem that process is non-transparent, i.e. you don't get transaction id or anything after vote for example. Recently they've published web interface to view transactions, although they don't contain data that allows check your own vote. Some people already described internals and say that there some problems with data validation, especially about voter counts.

But whatever, for that specific election everyone know what happened, and it would happen with or without electronic system.

>I was guessing that the voter would, as part of the voting process, get back a signed certificate with something like the block hash and a blinded MAC of his party choice, his device verifies it, he approves it cross-sign it and submit it. Thus he would have a certificate to compare against what's found in the blockchain, which would prevent replacing the whole chain

Yes, blockchain-based voting system potentially may be made very transparent. Although there is no complete solution for proving that you didn't mess with certificate (and blaming you for this while silently replacing the chain). This requires large amount of "loyal" voters who would be silent and administrative support though.

I guess adding another independent blockchain into voting system may solve issues, although it would work only for those organizations who really want clear elections.

>However, I thought a verifiable system (like blockchain-based) was at least interesting

As far as I know, some companies already providing commercial voting system for non-government purposes (in-organisation voting or such) based on blockchain that look relative ok from outside. Sadly most of "blockchain" "tech" is a scam nowadays, and it is rarely used for things where blockchain fits best.

>>45078
>What's that pine tree with ~500 000 votes?

Greens. Second green ones, because there also another green party. They had some internal issues and decided to split. Don't even know who is more "real" and who is spoiler.

There is some specific thing in modern Russian voting system - using some kind of fake parties. For example, classic commies (KPRF, communist party of Russian Federation) is often viewed as not-so-controlled opposition (with limits), and to confuse voters government made another party - "communists of Russia". Sometimes they even try to use candidates with similar last names to make people confused much. Many voters decide their vote only at last moment, and many of them (especially old people who not ok with these tricks) confuse one commies for others. Two green parties may have same story.

The most extreme and most clownish example of that trick happened in Sankt-Petersburg recently: there is some candidate named Boris Vishnevsky (don't know really much about him though). Two his opponents changed their names to Boris Vishnevsky and even used similar (also slightly photoshopped) photos as their official images. It was very fun, although very third-worldish.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/sep/06/three-near-identical-boris-vishnevskys-on-st-petersburg-election-ballot

>This I found dystopic. Imagine a future voting system where you tap on your phone and then you get automatic results with no possible way of knowing that how the whole society voted. You could be happy if your party/candidates won, it would be like a lottery or some shit.

Personally I think that democracy in terms that we idealistically imaging is dead. And this is global process, more complex that just some separate totalitarian tendencies. It is more like transition to another level of global technology that makes voting and voters completely useless, some kind of cyberpunk corporate dystopia (just without aesthetically cyber part) where people are more like product. And using democracy and voting as facade is outdated, because people already "trust the experts" in everything.

Don't know if it is good or bad, because there were no real democracy in past, only illusion that masses may control something, and only in small time period like 20th century.

>>45086
>Personally I think that democracy...
>Don't know if it is good or bad...
I almost ended up posting something similar previously, even the ideal democracy and "real democracy was never tried" featured as well, then deleted.
Liberals appropriated the democracy for themselves, and others raises the point that illiberal democracy is also democracy. I would turn it onto both and would say (and probably said in the past) that this isn't democracy. Just because bunch of people can go to the urns to cast their votes, that doesn't make it democracy, even the Greeks back then knew this.
It's weird that literacy and education achieved never seen levels during the history of humankind and now people are just as far detached from the possibility to decide their own fate as anytime else. We have the ability to give the information to everyone, so everyone could make their informed decision, and we have nothing but bs, false information, lies, silly non-issues, political circus, and babelian chaos of social media's billion headed hydra. Is it because of the manipulative exploiters of the masses, or simply humanity is unable to function otherwise?

>>45101
Ooh, we also got some attention:
>Laschet also stressed his European credentials, saying that the EU “was more important than ever in this unstable world” and must therefore be kept together.
>This included holding out an olive branch to Poland and Hungary, which are locked in fierce rule-of-law battles with Brussels. “Yes, there is some dissent now about the rule of law. But we will not be able to hold this Europe together without Poland, without Central and Eastern Europe, without the Baltic states, without Hungary,” he said.
https://www.politico.eu/article/armin-laschet-angela-merkel-germany-election-future-swing-left/
I don't see a realistic scenario where Hungary would leave the EU no matter of any voices.

>>45101
Heh, I wrote tomorrow. Tomorrow is today.

ZDF and ARD show a bit different results, but the two largest parties are standing head to head about 25%, the SPD might lead, a bit closer to 26%.
Greens at 14.3 percent
FDP at 11.6 percent
AfD at 10.8 percent
the Left at 5 - it balances on the threshold, they might just make it... or not
But these results are based on projections, and exit polls. Although the final result won't be too different, we're gonna see them tomorrow or sometimes (it's weird that sometimes the real results are buried deep and no or barely any article can be found about them, only the exit polls are declared loudly).
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/germans-vote-close-election-decide-merkel-successor-2021-09-25/
https://www.politico.eu/article/german-election-too-close-to-call-as-polls-close/

>>45107
I think it doesn't matter for Die Linke since the threshold isn't just 5% but either/or winning 3 seats via first-past-the-post share, which they did.

>>45119
>>45120
I share Bismarck's Opinion on this, but then I am not European. However there is that other Australian that is a historian and is always talking about Pan-Europeism.

>>45083
Well, that's one particular device/implementation, and tbh rather more like an API endpoint providing consensus-by-convention than an oracle, because its decisions are an algorithmic result of whatever data is fed into its inputs
In a general sense, "oracle" is often used in cryptography and infosec to refer to a process or program that can give you (useful) information in an a-priori opaque manner. In the case of cryptography it could be for example that you may via some cryptographic operation determine whether or not certain ciphertext encodes a given piece of data, while anyone else may not, or may get a different anwser (so the oracle can give you a custom answer as long as you present the appropriate offering, such as a key). Or in security parlance, oracle can be used to describe a kind of vulnerability that lets an attacker confirm and/or refute theories about secret information (thus reducing entropy of the secret) while itself not outright disclosing the secret or how the answer is determined

>>45085
>Although there is no complete solution for proving that you didn't mess with certificate (and blaming you for this while silently replacing the chain).
Hm. I guess they could just accuse you of having changed your private key after the fact, while they re-sign your ballot/certificate with another key. So it's basically the problem of proving that you are/aren't the legitimate owner of a given key. And I suppose adding a prior pre-committment phase is just pushing the problem down another layer... Here's is where distributed consensus becomes useful, except that something as important as the state relying on unproven technology is too risky
>adding another independent blockchain into voting system may solve issues
The problem with this is that saying "independent" is easy while in practice hard to define and even harder to implement and ensure

>>45119
u got a pdf link for that bernd? Sounds ebin

>>45127
>In a general sense, "oracle" is...
I see. Thanks.

>>45137
Sorry, it's a physical copy I have, he is a relatively obscure writer, and the publisher is relatively obscure too, I don't think anyone bothered to make an e-book out of it. An English translation is even less likely, the little you can read above in those two posts are mine.
I think I'll translate two more which are still related to the political situation we're going through, and to be honest these statements, historical observations, remain true as long as European nations exist.
But the topic of the book isn't centered around this, it is about the Hungary of Mathias Corvinus, and the king himself.

>>45120
> This is why Europe's cultural unity cannot turn into the unity of statehood, imperum. Only into confederacy.
Each day europeaness is getting more important contrary to nationalism in Europe, the idea and fear of *the others* helped it tremendously. So in the long run nationalisms will be something like micro nationalisms in Europe. Also not to mention a confedral empire is still an empire, it's just an Empire with created by willing members compared to supressed ones.

>>45099
Agreed

>>45171
>europeaness is getting more important...
I disagree.
Nationalism plays a reduced part since WWII. I can't say it is nonexistent, since all the countries has people who believes national identity, their ethnicity matters, their national politics have to be preserved and aimed along their national interests. They are marginalized. Even those parties that today are featured in left-liberal media as nationalist (eg. Fidesz on the Hungary), they really aren't. Their resistance toward the imperialist Brussels is a sham, the existence of national governments is obsolete. Even now the survival of the folk, the ethnicity is in the hands of the people only.
And then the left-liberals are destroying Europeanness itself. Maybe a redefinition is going on as globalization is going on and new supranational level of control is getting constructed, and some new polarizations form.
>Also not to mention a confedral empire is still an empire,
I don't think there is a confederate empire. A confederacy is many centered due to the sovereign states it consist of, the empire has only one center, it is one sovereign state, it is too different type of state organization practice. A solution for the Austro-Hungarian Empire was to dial it back to confederacy, creating member states instead of subjects. Yes it would have been the same state, but the empire status would have been abolished.
One can think of "empire" as a more abstract form, like how the US is referred to as an empire, when it is a republic. Still it doesn't make it a real empire even if it enjoys such status on the globe.

Bit more than a year ago Romania elected a new parliament, and cabinet. >>41366
Now the government fell due to a no-confidence vote.
Apparently one of the governing parties left (USR) the govt. (leaving PNL and RMDSZ at the helm) turning the opposition the majority.
Romania is struggling with the recession.

https://www.romania-insider.com/citu-govt-falls-oct-2021

>>45120
So the guy sought to contrast the concepts and legacies of European imperium and European folks, showing that they are contradictory, and offering confederation as a resolution. Another mentioned resolution (probably a reference to the third reign) manages to break the interlock by suppressing some of the counterposed factors, but he deems this one illegitimate.
Some V4 politicians have again made explicit comments about this recently. This is from Poland:
>Mateusz Morawiecki, PM: Efforts are underway to turn the EU into a federal superstate. Berlin's support for the United States of Europe is a dangerous utopia that could lead to conflicts
>Jaroslaw Kaczynski, deputy PM and head of PiS: Germany is seeking to turn the European Union into a federalist Fourth Reich built on the basis of the EU and the European court of justice is being used as an instrument for this
I suppose Germany's liberal "pan-europeanists" figure that globalization trends and demographic changes will continue in Europe, and with them the processes of EU integration and centralization. Maybe they envision that one day, in the not too distant future, the system of liberal communication and movement would have produced sufficient ideological and ethnic homogenization that suddenly individual European states won't look or think themselves much more different from each other than e.g. USA's states, at which point EU could finally asume the role it was originally designed for

>>45248
>Since no opposition party is strong enough to oust the Fidesz-KDNP alliance, and gain the government, they decided to put forward a common candidate for the seat of prime minister, and run on the election together all supporting the same person.
Is this a Soros project too? I think his Wide Open Nations project had funded/organized this same "all against one" pseudo-political format before. Where was it? Moldavia? US? Poland?

Random South American news from the past few months:

- Argentina has enforced large-scale price controls, which means their inflation is already out of control and won't be fixed in the long run.
- One of the Brazilian Supreme Court judges said the country already has a de facto semipresidential system with the Supreme Court serving as a Moderating Power. For context, the Moderating Power was a fourth element to the Executive-Legislative-Judiciary trio held by the Emperor and said to have been de facto exerted by the military in republican times. This demonstrates Bolsonaro's weakness and makes me wonder if the Supreme Court judges think they're the Crown or a military junta.
- Leftist presidential victory in Chile.
- The Castillo government in Peru began a new land reform program but it doesn't seem to include land redistribution. President Gonzalo, head of the Shining Path under arrest since 1992, has died in prison. Irrelevant Brazilian Maoists (https://anovademocracia.com.br/) have called Castillo a fascist CIA puppet and noted how he's backed by Movadef, which they also hate for being revisionists and straying from the path of Marxism-Leninism-Maoism-Gonzalo Thought.

>>45988
>probably a reference to the third reign
>reign
Reich? You mean the German Empire?
Not sure. Could be. The book itself is about the Medieval, early Renaissance Hungarian Kingdom of Matthias Corvinus.
The Hungarian "empire" is a Europe within Europe, with similar issues and after Trianon many showed interest in the question here. The Austro-Hungarian Empire similarly. And the solution offered by king Karl IV (I as emperor).

>Is this a Soros project too?
That would probably be a safe bet.
>this same "all against one" pseudo-political format
I know such in Czechia. The "coalition" of the opposition won there last year.

>>45997
Another year rich in success stories awaits for South America...
>Argentina
It's time to buy land in Patagonia.
>anovademocracia
Lots of red for one website. If I came across it by accident, I would know just by the looks.

Now taht we are at it, Márky-Zay is the PM candidate of the opposition. Which means not much, since we don't vote for PM candidates, but for:
1. a party list
2. a representative (for the legislation; he doesn't even have to be in the same party which we support)
Regarding to parties, on the ballot there will be the Fidesz-KDNP, the Mi Hazánk (right radical, from the Jobbik), and an opposition party depending on which one is the "strongest" locally - so probably not a common party alliance of the coalition. And maybe a couple of small parties, like the Two Tailed Dog Party.
Then after elections, the new legislation elects the PM. Which literally can be anyone they want if the opposition wins, it's just an agreement (supported by the voters in the primary) that Márky-Zay will be the PM. If the situation will demands or allows it, it can happen, that someone else will be that. Ofc if they disregard the primary arbitrarily they could lose popular support, but I'm not sure how much that matters. And since the whole parliament elects the PM, the opposition parties probably won't have the luxury to vote on the person for PM differently - Fidesz might be in there in large enough numbers -, so they'll stick with Márky-Zay.
And ofc this is all just hypothetical, last I heard the Fidesz leads now.

Not sure if this should go in the news thread or what

Marketa Pekarová Adamová, a czech parliamertarian, woman, and the official speaker of some parliament committee recently "interfered" in Hungarian politics ahead of the presidential elections by stating in a speech that "Hungarians are about to remove Orbán" from office

Poland had a ready-to-go bill meant to limit the influence of foreign entities (beyond EEC) in polish media. In particular the largest public broadcaster TVN is owned by the same company that owns CNN, and the law would have forced them to divest (at least partially).
USA was openly against it, already during the previous administration IIRC
A few weeks ago, the president of poland vetoed the bill, after incessant whining from the opposition, liberals, homos, abortionists, antifa, and similar ilk (main consoomers of that media). Want to guess who swayed his hand the strongest?

Funnily, mere days afterward, a foreign (USA) media company (facebook) encroached into polish politics by banning Konfederacja, a right-wing party fairly popular in that platform, possibly violating a recent polish law regarding online free expression

>>46135
>presidential elections
We don't have that. We have legislative elections. But that's ok, Orbán is a very prominent individual, maybe in the future these times will be called Orbán-era after him (in our system PM is the key figure not the Prez), especially if Fidesz-KDNP gets reelected for the fourth term.
>Hungarians are about to remove Orbán
Maybe. Probably not. I give a 2:1 for Orbán & Co. to win.

>>46136
IS there such thing as no foreign influence? When Tucker Carlson interviewed Orbán had to explain where their success, their authority coming from. He did not say it comes from the people or God, he just takes a blink upward and both of them laugh. It could mean from God but the whole thing looked like he meant some higher-up in their picked masonic order or something...

>>46137
>IS there such thing as no foreign influence?
It is pretty clear that there is no such lack of influence in Poland, since the law was dropped at the last instance, probably at the behest of a very influential foreigner ;-)
Ok, I'm not seeing your point. First, this was specifically about "media" influence. Plus a similar law already exists in France, and the German govt. goes to all extents possible to prevent media like RT to have a broadcast license (and not even air broadcast: even their youtube channels with hundreds of thousands of subscribers, one of the most popular german-language media in that platform, are targeted and banned for dubious reasons)
Also, as I understand, this polish law didn't attempt to prevent all foreign media influence, just to limit it. And furthermore, it only applied to entities outside the EEC
Anyway, I suppose the bill will return in due time in version adjusted to appropriately exempt said foreign influencer

I want to add something a post but it's more about politics, and is a sidetrack to the topic discussed there. It's something Brazilbernd wrote >>46382 I'm gonna quote it here:
>But a sensible guess is that, as Party members weren't all killed in 1976 and it didn't "start from a clean slate", it changed its worldview until believing in what it does at the present. Instead of conscious liars, it's easier for the current leadership to sleep peacefully at night knowing they have the most advanced scientific mindset contiuous with the great scientific thinkers of old. It might be hypocritical and inconsistent but ruling ideologies are hypocritical and inconsistent all the time.
Being hypocritical and inconsistent is the salt and pepper of politicians. There are two views about facts and the truth:
1. facts are constant, the truth changes (kinda: what we believe to be true changes shape as we learn the hard facts);
2. facts change, the truth is constant (kinda: the truth is solid, and we get closer of knowing it as we sort out what the facts are and what aren't);
Politicians opted with a third choice:
3. facts change, truth change - and this process is constant.
They get couple of facts and they base an image into that which they sell as truth on one day, then as others show that there are other facts, or the facts are different, the politicians just say that in the light of recently acquired facts the truth is something else. And they feel consistent because this process of flip-flopping is what constant.
This is also consistent with science, as science goes through ages by shedding skin of untruth that claimed to be truth for a while. It's really easy for politicians to refer to science or use it to back themselves with it.
I also want to add more, but that maybe belongs to a philosophy thread.

>>46283
>this year's election
When that will happen?

>>46384
>When that will happen?
First round on the 2nd of October, second on the 30th. Lula is likely to win primarily because of the decaying economic situation and nostalgia for better times in the 2000s, despite the slide into stagnation and crisis beginning under his handpicked successor. Ciro and Moro are already well known by the electorate and battle out for the third spot; who knows if maybe one of them can reach the second round. Moro can't win the second round because he can't be populist enough. Maybe Ciro can, he's simultaneously probing the centrist electorate with a moderate image and attacks on Lula as well as trying to take over Lula's place in the left.

>>46283
Does he still campaign knowing he is well ahead? If he does, does he have a explicit position on the social/cultural "wars" coming from anglo-land (like Bolsonaro had previously)?
Supposing he wins the presidency, will he have an agreeable or combative congress?

>>46391
>Does he still campaign knowing he is well ahead?
Of course, there are many months ahead and a lot can change, he can't get complacent. Though lately the news seem more focused on the other candidates.
>does he have a explicit position on the social/cultural "wars" coming from anglo-land (like Bolsonaro had previously)?
Clearly on the side of the Western "cultural revolution". He may not talk about it all the time but his party has a clear position, activists are loud about it and government programmes during elections have sections about gender equality, racism, "LGBTI+ citizenship" and the like. The wider left follows up on Western trends, last year it was colonizer statue burning. NGO money flows in and the left has cared more and more about this as the years went on.
Bolsonaro got a lot of votes by reacting to this, even though once in power he has no accomplishments to speak of on this matter. All the way back in 2019 the Supreme Court criminalized homophobia (one point in Haddad's government program), creating legislation is a Congressional prerogative but they decided that for legal purposes homophobia is racism, which is already a crime. Last year Congress created a law defining psychological violence against women and Bolsonaro did not veto it. Those causes keep winning victories in the institutions on autopilot. On the second round Lula will surely present himself as a Christian family man but under his government there'd be more legislative proposals and government departments to advance these topics, so there is a difference.
Bolsonaro did try to wage the cultural war on one topic, the memory of the military dictatorship, but that's not as important as other areas and his approach is stupid. Naturally, he's lost in his attempts.
There's a non-culture war topic on which the Worker's Party has an unpopular stance: crime. Bolsonaro's calls for harshness were popular. In power he's achieved little actual change on this (security is mainly a state, not federal responsibility) but murders have declined. Lula will have to be careful, as being open about going lax on crime will lose him votes.
>Supposing he wins the presidency, will he have an agreeable or combative congress?
The core of Congress are ideology-less parties who will back anyone as long as they get their fair share of the budget and cabinet. Lula can bribe them perfectly well, that's what the 2005 Mensalão was about. Dilma's fall was the exception, but that was under specific circumstances - the president was weak and those parties opportunistically took over.
Oppositionist Lula is a rough, angry creature but in power he became a successful pragmatist. However, this isn't 2003 Lula, who got in power for the first time and had to win prestige. He has been humiliated a lot in the past years and certainly has a taste for vengeance. He won't be a pure pragmatist, I speculate he will also want symbolic victories over his old enemies.

>>46398
Thanks for explaining
Sounds like so far Bolsonaro's term is passing by without much impact
>the memory of the military dictatorship, but that's not as important
Maybe it was a strategic choice, not having many allies in the courts or the congress or the media...
Btw I just noticed that da Silva is older than I imagined: ~76. That's quite a few years older than Bolsonaro and even Putin for example. He will be 80-81 by the end of the next term

>>46415
>Maybe it was a strategic choice, not having many allies in the courts or the congress or the media...
He does have allies in Congress after bribing them, but at this point this support merely keeps him in power.
His efforts to rehabilitate the military period are a bad strategic choice, picking a cause which has little direct impact on people's lives, doesn't even have unanimous support (the dictatorship was popular at its apex and unpopular at its end) and fights off present-day civic propaganda with 70s civic propaganda. He's not a very intellectual officer, all he can do is repeat the old "Democratic Revolution of March 31st, 1964" rhetoric, even though "revolution" is a poor term for the historical reality, even "counterrevolution" makes more sense. A more productive endeavor would be to dehabilitate the memory of the communist guerrillas, who by this point have officially become "victims of political repression" even when they died in combat.

>>46543
>1-dissident-negative-light.jpg
>chinese dissident twitter ... separatists, maoists, and han supremacists
It is clear that he is not a han supremacist or a maoist

>>46543
He has a Chinese account too (UmeDiqi) and regularly posts in Chinese. His posts naturally include "esoteric" information that nobody in the West cares about as well as irony and trolling, a lot of it also esoteric, so I don't expect him to express a fully consistent (at least from my uninformed perspective) and understandable set of facts. His racism against different Chinese regions only makes him more genuine, I know a lot of Brazilian regional stereotypes completely unknown to gringos; if you claimed to be a paulista and didn't hate Rio de Janeiro, I'd doubt your identity. Maybe local racisms are all part of a foreign plot to fuel separatism? But I guess he's not a real Chinese because he says the grass isn't that green as you can see from the outside and the grass must be green.
You could also prove I'm not Brazilian because I agree with a lot of negative national stereotypes and find self-deprecation funny, therefore I must be part of a Western-funded NGO trying to divide the country through Amerindian sectarianism and colonial history self-hate.

>>46547
You are extrapolating and responding to a straw man. I did not claim that anyone was or wasn't a "real Chinese" (or a "real Brazilian"). I added relevant context to his statements: he is some kind of racially-motivated anti-"china" separatist (literally, given his interpretation of what the "china" polity is or should be), apparently with a grudge towards han, manchu, and other subgroups, and chinese balkanization (again) appears preferable to him. He is also 21.
Does this persona belong to a "real Chinese"? Maybe, I'm have not claimed one thing or the other. Is his position *operationally* aligned with that of a competing power? Absolutely. I suppose he would agree, given his own take on opinions, stances, and abnormal internet users
Sorry, I don't have more time for elaborating what I actually wanted to. But maybe you would prefer that we drop the seriousdiscussion and just try to bait each other? Sorry, this question is itself a kind of bait, but I'm just joking, just a tiny bit annoyed about the straw man

Got brand new President of the Republic, Novák Katalin, 44, mother of three kids.
Our prez is a weak one, mostly with representative functions. They are elected by the Parliament, for 5 years.

>>46881
has been a while since a woman was head of state of Hungary.

>>46939
Yes. We were very progressive back then...
And I think it is a good move on behalf of the Fidesz. Women in power is a thin now, Merkel, Ursula (fucking bears srsly, we have a very bad luck with bears) von der Leyen. She is an empowered woman and a mother keeping a family running.

>national politics
>women
Pure decadence and gayness.
Women's capacity for leadership and oversight stops at children and the kitchen.
>Merkel
>Ursula (fucking bears srsly, we have a very bad luck with bears) von der Leyen
Fucking harpies and acolytes of GlohoHomo. Krauts to boot.
Learn from based Africa, these demons are below the dignity of even a Ugandan FM.

>>46941
There is no national politics, nowhere on the Earth, or only in very few countries. I see many people who lives in this delusion that somehow nationalism is relevant on any level. I understand their mistake, liberal and socialist propaganda always goes 100% about how everything nationalism's fault, even tho it's dead for over a 3/4 century now.
There is a demand for nationalism in the people and sometimes socialists/communists, and conservative liberals dress their movements, parties into national colors to make it appealing for many, whistling patriotic tunes for it.
That's been said involving women into politics not necessarily goes against nationalism. They have to be made invested in the fate of the community they are part of. They have to play willing part of the supporting structure that makes possible the resistance against outside group threats. Otherwise they become just spoils of war, with possible intentions to betray/sabotage the group if they get a better offer. So shit have to be figured out, involving them in the decision making process might be a way to go.

>>46943
Perhaps he did not know who she was. I didn't know she existed before they made chief puppet of the EU out of her. News could travel slow in Africa.

>>46948
It seems you misunderstood: I was talking about 'national' not 'nationalist' politics.
What I mean is that the scope over which a woman's leadership role can be useful is way way below the 'national' level: at the level of 'children & kitchen', so to speak. But, more charitably, it can be OK to have them take care of that stupid 'people work' at the communal or municipal level. Over here lots of bored menopausic women get involved into community organizing, neighbor associations, school committees and such bullshit. That can also feed into higher-level politics, but as long as it is kept in check I think that is fine.
>They have to play willing part of the supporting structure
Sure but women are made to follow not to lead. This is a biological invariant. The way in which they will find a part to play in the structure is by being given a place where to fit, where to accommodate themselves, not by being given the reins of the structure. Women who think they are the pack leaders invariably behave badly. And they will never inspire strong men to follow.

It was a woman who created the British empire.

>>46955
Fake and gay. You might have AIDS.

At the moment (processed: 36% party lists, 50% constituencies), the 199 seats are divided:
- 134 Fidesz (over 2/3)
- 57 united opposition
- 8 Mi Hazánk

57% party list, 70% constituency:
- 134 seats Fidesz
- 58 seats united opposition
- 7 seats Mi Hazánk

>>47149
Seems the media fudged the polls again. That's a much greater lead than they were projecting ~2 weeks ago. Even increased the supermajority.
>the opposition candidate for the PM, Márki-Zay Péter, will be forgotten quick
Funny dude. He paid lip service to the Clinton bitch and went on to lose his own district
>However the referendum did not get enough valid votes to become binding.
Interesting, I thought the child-protection law was already in place

>>47154
He can't be that patriotic if he was living and working in the US. I don't trust politicians like that, well I don't trust any politician really but still.

>>47149
I forgot that the German Minority Municipality also gained a mandate. All those grey "parties" ending with Ö, are minority municipalities.

>>47154
If I understood correctly Márki-Zay has the option either to sit in the parliament, or remain as mayor. In the parliament he would be just one bloke among many, who doesn't even have his own party. But back in his town he's the boss. The problem with that is, that mayors rarely make into national news.
And now both Jobbik and DK already shifting the blame on him.
>child-protection law was already in place
It is. I'm not sure why this referendum was needed at all. I assume that it was just the part of the campaign one more tool of the Fidesz. They used it to demonize the opposition that they want to chop the weewees of all Hungarian little boys or whatever. And basically:
>We won't allow the globohomo to touch our children! Vote for us!

>>47155
I think working and living abroad could even turn someone into a patriot. One of our great reformers of the 19th came to the realization that the country is in pressing need of modernization after he traveled west in his young adulthood (especially the visit in England had huge impact on him). Previously he was just an aristocrat in the court, enjoyed the life the wealth of his family granted to him. I don't think it is an impossibility, perhaps it's rare.
Now specifically Márki-Zay. I dunno if he's a patriot, he considers himself conservative, patriotism can overlap with that.
>I don't trust any politician really
Smart.

Hungarian government spending of the EU funds is gonna get investigated by the EU Commission. Probably not the Commission itself, but some committee entrusted. The result would be cutting EU funding. The whole thing is called "rule-of-law standards" investigation, and justified by the claims about rampant corruption. To be honest there is rampant corruption.
On the other hand I suspect corruption is just the same (or even bigger) in the rest of the EU, I guess the main difference is that while Orbán and co. passes all the fat EU money bags to their friends and family, in the civilized west those in politics aren't the ones who are doing favors due to their own authoroty, they just puppets of influental interest groups and economical powers. Besides would anyone give govt funding to those who aren't in bed with them, for those who are closer to the opposition?
Here the opposition bitch an moan about the corruption, but they did the same, and would do the same.
The result will be the same as with the sanctions. Putin now can point to evil west how they want to choke Russia, and he can be the hero defending the nation. Orbán can (and will) do this too (actually continue to do this), the champion of the people who stands up for them against evil Brussels. And he'll need unifying words and every bit of support, because the economic situation now isn't a joke, and the treatment won't be pleasant. But he'll be able to conveniently shift the blame to Brussels for every inconvenience, and strict measures.
Problem is Hungarian citizens and entrepreneurs will drink the black soup.
I wonder how much the HUF will fall by tomorrow morning.
https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-commission-to-trigger-rule-of-law-budget-tool-against-hungary/

>>47159
I'm not very acquainted with Hungary. How have they managed to maintain being an independent state for so long (barring times with Austria)?

The independence of a country can be measured by three things:
1. finance;
2. foreign politics;
3. military affairs.
If these three are controlled by the country, then that country is independent.

Our monetary politics, the finance, economy, trade, etc. are hugely controlled by the EU. EU members have to give up their economic freedom to open up for the other members. The goal of the EU was to create a common market. This is the whole point. Members still have decisions they can make themselves, but there are hard limits on what they can do, and everything has to comply to EU regulations. Plus we can't control what's literally monetary: the Hungarian Forint is pegged to the Euro, so we can't do with it whatever we want (imagine the countries without their own currency but having the Euro instead). By default at the first point our country fails to be independent for this thing.
In the Habsburg empire it was the same, Austria-Hungary was the same in this question. We weren't independent back then, we aren't now.

Our foreign politics also have hard limits, on one hand there is the EU and it's economical dealings with outsiders, but the final boss is actually the NATO and the US on the top. We can't do whatever we want because we have to contemplate those interests first, and only then if there is a leeway.
So the military affairs influence the foreign politics, and the economical ties too. In Austria-Hungary this was the same. We weren't independent back then, we aren't now.

But this is a lesson for the EU too. It aspires to become a sovereign country, but she also has hard limits in foreign politics: it's the same NATO and US which binds it. Just look at what is going on now, US whistles EU jumps. Or that French butthurt when the Australians ditched the submarine deal for the American one, when they could do nothing, called back the ambassadors, then sent it back couple weeks later. Impotence.
So EU needs to take her military affairs in her own hand, if she wants to be the master of its own foreign politics, and be actually an independent state.
Some even wants to abolish the members states, that way creating that supra-state above everyone in here. Which would be still subordinated by American interests

>>47167
There are too many differing agendas within the EU to have a viable foreign policy. Just look at Ukraine, not every country in the EU is actually sending weapons and they all have differing ideas on the degree that the should sanction Russia, even though Russia is a threat they all agree on. And then there is France that is doing her own thing in Africa and the Pacific without caring about anybody else anyway.

The problem is they all have their own agendas, particularly France because France still has colonies, over a million French citizens live in French colonies in the pacific. Poland is not going to want to pay for a French Aircraft carrier to defend French interests and France isn't going to want to scrap her navy to focus on her Army to defend Poland.

As for the broken sub deal, Australia might have to pay 5.5 Billion Dollars for that.

>>47169
The EU isn't a country to have foreign policy. There is no domestic policy either, just economical (and related) regulations, for example there is no common health institutions, the pandemic was taken care individually and any cooperation was done inter-government basis.
But the EU tries to look like a state, a country. Now they are punishing countries that deemed to be out of the line by the central committee. They try to find common ground to act together as one body. Earlier this year they voted that to regulate foreign relations in the name of all members they don't need unanimous decisions, a simple majority is enough, and the rest have to follow the line.
And some dream about that United States of Europe. No Poland or France in that one.

Márki-Zay announced he remains the mayor of Hódmezővásárhely instead of becoming a rep in the national assembly.
On the road of getting forgotten.

>>47165
>>47165
>This is why it meant much for the Habsburgs when they acquired it,


tbh it feels like the Habsburgs wanted to OWN all of Europe at one point

>>47199
AEIOU.

>>47199
That was their plan for a long while.

>>47200
They had another motto, or a saying actually. Something liek:
>let others war, Austria you just marry

>>47201
It was 'Let others wage war. You, happy Austria, marry' which was said by Matthias Corvinus.

>>47203
Actually, it was in Latin. But yes, I wasn't sure about the exact saying.
I highly doubt it was said by Mathias I. It's not something he would contemplate about, despite his not so fortunate marriages.

Here's the final count of the seats.

France is electing a new Prez. It will most likely be whom they already have.
The two main candidates are the bloke who sometimes says uncomfortable things and has mommy issues, the other is the woman with the hot daughter (who might not be in the politics anymore I think).
Macron is run by the party La République En Marche, which is more like a classical liberal party, not the mainstream leftlib of our day, without being conservative.
Le Pen is the founder of Rassemblement National, a national conservative party, which probably called Nazi all the time despite all these kind of parties in Europe are 100% Pro-Jewish and Pro-Israeli.
There is a third possible candidate just because Paris can't get enough of the Commune, the socialist Jean-Luc Mélenchon.

It's an election with two rounds, first they vote on the candidate, then they vote again on the two top candidates.
First round turnout was ~74.5%.
Macron leads with a solid ~27.5%
Le Pen follows with ~23.5%
Mélenchon holds ~22% of the votes.

This could change the data isn't processed in full yet. However no matter who comes in second, the winner most likely be Macron.

Beyond the first three there is one more notable group, the Reconquete party, which supposed to be even more far-right than the RN. Now they got 7% of the votes. Not nearly enough "far right" voters in France, and the supporters of the other parties will vote against them. Now I believe Macron's victory is sure.
Interestingly France doesn't have a strong green party, unlike Germany.

>>47298
East Timor was Portuguese colony?

>>47317
It was far away and barely settled from Europe, I wouldn't expect Portuguese phenotypes there.

In other news, Lula's first round lead over Bolsonaro has reduced in the polls but remains wide in the second round. Moro dropped his presidential bid. Lula's VP is Geraldo Alckmin, one of the main opposition figures in his time, who he ran against in 2006. However, his rhetoric has been more to the radical side.

>>47320
So young vote on socialist, middle aged right, old Macron maybe all the grannies hope he will shag them too.
How this correlates with ethnicity and religion? I'd assume in the younger age bracket the ratio black/arabic/muslim population is larger.

>>47396
The Amazon will pass lotsa water till October. Still something can happen that brings the election back from the grave for Bolsonaro.

>>47404
On the Internet I've heard small talk about Lula dropping his bid.

>>47405
That however sounds like wishful thinking. On the other hand he is old and fat, covid could take him out. Or a heart attack.

>>47407
Theoretically he would drop out in favor of a placeholder candidate of the likes of Dilma and Haddad. Still no real evidence for it, just wild speculation.

Election in Australia today, we had a state election not long ago, this is a federal election.

Both parties are basically the same, it doesn't even matter. But we will see how many non-majors get seats this time.

They are still counting votes. But Labour won so we are getting a new Prime minister called Anthony Albanese, I'll wait for the final results to say more.

A CPAC was held on the Hungary. USA midterm elections are coming up in November, so campaign all year. What's weird is they campaigning with Hungary. Both country an Orbán returns in their news. Liberals foaming just makes him more recognized, popular, and influential.

>>47641
>Albanese
From Scottish Alba?

>>47644
I looked him up and apparently it's an Italian name for people from Albania or something. It's from his dad but his dad separated with his mother before or shortly around his birth or something. He's also from a fairly poor background raised by a single mum in public housing and it said he was part of the hard left of the Labour Party and was head of a young labour group when he was young that kept in touch with the Australian communists and such. I don't like this....

>>47645
Yes, Alba is a Latin name. Scotts themselves never called that place like that unless clerical education.

Israel...
>the government will disband, and the country will hold elections for the fifth time in three years.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/6/21/on-the-way-out-why-is-israels-government-about-to-fall
>With a razor-thin parliamentary majority and divisions on major policy issues such as Palestinian statehood, Israel’s occupation of the West Bank, and issues concerning religion and the state, the alliance began to fracture when a handful of members defected.
Well, Haaretz is paywalling the articles, so:
https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-709909
>inability to pass the Judea and Samaria emergency bill, which is composed of temporary injunctions applying Israeli law to Jews in the West Bank.
Since they occupied the West Bank, it was only sources of problems. I don't believe they couldn't solve it, in whatever way, if there was a will. I assume it's better having problems with that, instead from other sources.