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Politics Serious Discussion - Getting out edition Bernd 04/24/2020 (Fri) 17:54:06 [Preview] No. 36217
Justice Minister Moro resigned. He is immensely popular and was doing a good job. There have been high-profile arrests and in 2019 the number of murders dropped by 10 thousand compared to the previous year, a decrease of a fifth. This is a result of many factors: in the Northeast cooperation among cartels reduced violence, but the reduction happpened in other states. Legislation wasn't a factor as there was next to no real change in this regard. He retains much prestige despite the scandal with his leaks, eternal hate from the left due to being Lula's nemesis and repeated disempowerment of the anti-corruption struggle by Congress and the Supreme Court.
What caused this was Bolsonaro's elimination of Federal Police director Maurício Valeixo, who had been picked by Moro. In his final address he noted that:
-There was no legitimate reason for this as he had been effective in his post
-This was a violation of the promise Bolsonaro made upon naming him Minister, that he'd have freedom to handle subordinates
-Bolsonaro also intends to replace a subordinate of the director, the Rio de Janeiro superintendent, and possibly other superintendents, which goes against his spirit of giving autonomy to subordinates
-A replacement now would create confusion and harm the Federal Police's functioning
-Bolsonaro personally told him this was a political choice

Why political? He did not say this straight, but what everyone says is that it was to protect Bolsonaro's sons from investigation, and hence why the Rio de Janeiro superintendent is also involved. Their corruption accusations are petty for Brazilian standards but what's bigger are accusations they might be tied to militias. As always Bolsonaro's sons are his priority. This behavior doesn't come out of nowhere as he has few contacts in Brasília, having lived his career in the sidelines, and many reasons to be distrustful. Moro isn't someone he has a reason to distrust but his sons still came first.

Bernd 04/24/2020 (Fri) 20:10:30 [Preview] No.36222 del
wow, big happenings this year.

Bolsonaro is fucked now, right?

Bernd 04/24/2020 (Fri) 20:26:36 [Preview] No.36224 del
Not from this, the only immediate effect is that it'll hurt his popularity. Many of Bolsonaro's opponents hated Moro. But since this pandemic hit the whole country is a mess and his position grows more isolated every day.

Bernd 04/24/2020 (Fri) 20:42:34 [Preview] No.36228 del
This move just make the suspicions against Bolsonaro's sons more credible. Now peeps are speculating that yeah it was because of them, so they sure are guilty.

Bernd 04/24/2020 (Fri) 21:37:55 [Preview] No.36230 del
Bolsonaro made his own statement:
-He has the authority to sack the Federal Police director
-He told he'd sack him to Moro in advance, in yesterday's morning
-It was Valeixo who requested to be relieved of his post
-Moro did not inform him in advance of his decision to resign
-He never went off what was proper to request information on ongoing investigations
-Moro accepted that Valeixo would be sacked, but only after he himself would be named to be the Supreme Court in November

In comparison with Moro's earlier speech:
-He only knew of Valeixo's elimination after it was officially published, and did not sign it. Nonetheless the official document has Moro's digital signature. Moro said nothing about this but it has led to speculation that his signature was placed without his knowledge through fraud. Bolsonaro did not touch the topic of Moro's signature
-Valeixo spoke to Moro of leaving his post but only as a response to pressure, and his removal was political
-Bolsonaro wanted someone who could provide information on ongoing investigations
-Upon becoming minister Moro never put up the condition of being placed in the Supreme Court. More recently he said he never traded Valeixo's permanence for a nomination.

Bernd 04/25/2020 (Sat) 13:55:49 [Preview] No.36249 del
Polish election is coming in May. Due to this epidemic-situation their parliament decided to hold it remotely, the Royal Post was charged to manage the event. There are problems however...

Bernd 04/25/2020 (Sat) 14:21:06 [Preview] No.36252 del
It seems Bolsonaro was lying. Moro's resignation did not come out of a vacuum, there was talk about it for a while and when Bolsonaro sacked Valeixo he knew a resignation could come. Likewise there was talk about political pressure on Valeixo for a long time so it can't be a personal desire to leave. Moro leaked Whatsapp correspondence with the President to the media. On them Bolsonaro links to a piece of news about the Federal Police weighing down on 10-12 of his deputies, and says "one more reason for a replacement". Moro pointed out that this was by the Supreme Court's orders.
The investigation itself is part of the Supreme Court's fake news enquiry, which is controversial and part of their tendency to overreach, on the same line as their gag orders on a news site last year.
Moro might be lying about not trading Valeixo's stay for a Supreme Court naming but there isn't more information on that.

Bernd 04/25/2020 (Sat) 15:29:17 [Preview] No.36255 del
Moro also showed a conversation with deputy Carla Zambelli in which she requests him to accept Valeixo's later replacement in exchange for the Supreme Court, but he refuses. At the very least the idea was in circulation.

Bernd 04/26/2020 (Sun) 11:26:43 [Preview] No.36286 del
There are more problems than mentioned in the article.
IMO main thing is lack of any decisions. Today is 26th of april. Elections originally were supposed to be 10th of May, that's 2 weeks from now. Polish Post assumed we need 3 days to deliver everything, so we would have to start on 6th. As of now there is no law declared that would allow for elections. As far as I know the senate is holding it for no real reason (just because they can). The institution that is responsible for printing all the voting papers have no right to print them and that takes time too. Don't forget it also needs to be shipped to all the post offices around the country. One of the president candidates, Krzysztof Bosak, said few days ago that he doesn't know if the elections are going to happen on 10th of May or not and that he also got info that a debate in state television is planned on 11th of May. IIRC after all the law gets approved elections can be held no earlier than 2 weeks from that day. So it would basically be against law to have them on 10th of May.
Postal workers are angry, because delivering those voting packets means our usual work will have to be stopped and that just means more work later. There is a question of extra pay, and we were promised it but so far nothing specific has been said. I heard 3 different versions but nothing official. We will be delivering the packets as a committee of 2 people, one postman and one other worker. Some people here are talking about protesting and that means we won't have enough manpower.
As I was typing this I got a message from my boss that she needs to send to the directors a committee composition tomorrow lol.

Bernd 04/27/2020 (Mon) 05:51:10 [Preview] No.36309 del
I can't add much to the discussion about Bolsonaro but it seems to me he's getting into a nice pickle. Storm clouds are coming. Is there a possible "pretender" around? Rival in his own faction? How strong the opposition?

Found something interesting I didn't know about.
European Citizens' Initiative
Basically it's a way to influence EU legislation through grassroot movements or astroturf it if someone has the capacity, upstairs ofc I'm breddy sure they do it. Peeps can make these initiatives and can gather signatures for their cause. These can be added via a form. When they reach 1 million signatures and the threshold is reached in 7 EU countries, the initiative will be discussed by the Commission and the Parliament and maybe they make it into a law. Chances are pretty slim I would say, but not nil, possibility is open, worth trying.
Right now there's nine ongoing initiatives. What I came across was this one:
It's about how national but not independent regions could get direct funding from EU and spend it any way they, like independently from their countries' policies. Here is its website:
And here's the form:
As of now it's largely supported by Hungarians, since it helps Székelyföld in Transylvania, maybe can be a step toward autonomy if we look at the big picture, but other regions in the EU would benefit, such as Catalonia, Wales, Frisia, or Corsica.
Now, I can't ask EU citizen Bernds to support this particular one, and share it with others and I don't. Bernd should make up his own mind if he thinks it's a good idea personally, or for his nation. Weigh if it fits into his own views.
And there are other initiatives. Maybe Bernd will find one he thinks he can get behind.
It's not a miracle switch to solve problems instantaneously, but it's a tool it can be used.

Bernd 04/27/2020 (Mon) 05:53:55 [Preview] No.36312 del
I'm Hungarobernd. My ball doesn't show up for some reason.

Bernd 04/27/2020 (Mon) 12:32:39 [Preview] No.36320 del
No! I am hungrobernd!

Bernd 04/27/2020 (Mon) 16:08:35 [Preview] No.36332 del
No I!

Bernd 04/27/2020 (Mon) 23:25:29 [Preview] No.36343 del
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>Is there a possible "pretender" around? Rival in his own faction? How strong the opposition?
His nemesis is Rodrigo Maia, president of the Chamber of Deputies, who can rally an opposition from 3 sources:
-The old guard of Brasília, of which he is a representative: traditional parties of the center and right as well as the Supreme Court.
-A parliamentary minority of liberals, libertarians and others who have tried to distance themselves from the old guard, support Lava Jato and draw politically conscious voters.
-Often overlapping with the previous, former Bolsonaro allies who broke with him. Most were opportunists who latched on to his initially tiny circle when they saw his power, but ideology and/or lack of concession led them to break away. A huge section of Bolsonaro's allies have already defected.

In addition the media will support a center and right of center political offensive against the President. There's also the left which is loud but small and not allied with Maia. Besides the ideological gap, Moro's exit might have pleased them, as well as some of the old center.
If Maia can frame Bolsonaro and rally a strong enough base he might impeach him, but to attain power himself he'd have to impeach both President and VP as he's second in the line of succession. If Bolsonaro alone is toppled Mourão would make a lot of concessions but it would not be a complete defeat to the Bolsonaro camp.
Bolsonaro makes enemies with everyone, in a way a moral thing as there's less bribery involved, but also a stubborn way to rule which doesn't bear fruit unless he uses it to seize more power; so far it only led to a loss of power. He tries to rely on popular pressure but a lot of his voters picked him to defeat his opponent, not because of himself, and are now apathetic. He has a core base including engaged political activists, much like the Worker's Party, but that has also lost its strength. His most hardcore supporters now became Moro haters but many others are disappointed with how it turned out.

Bernd 04/30/2020 (Thu) 14:59:18 [Preview] No.36393 del
Supreme Court judge Moraes suspended the new pick for Federal Police director, Ramagem. Meanwhile Bolsonaro is buying himself a base by handing out posts to members of the center.

Bernd 05/03/2020 (Sun) 01:37:01 [Preview] No.36494 del
Today Moro entered the Federal Police building in Curitiba to depose of political interference in the institution and began to speak at about 14:30. It's 22:36 and there are no news of him finishing, only that pizza was requested.

Bernd 05/03/2020 (Sun) 01:48:34 [Preview] No.36495 del
And it's over. It took 8 hours.

Bernd 05/03/2020 (Sun) 16:00:09 [Preview] No.36503 del
How does it look like? Will Bolsonaro serve through his term? Well, if you have to guess.

What was the topping I wonder. Is pineapple popular in the higher echelons of politics?

Bernd 05/03/2020 (Sun) 21:25:35 [Preview] No.36512 del
It's hard to guess. An impeachment is by design difficult to pull off, and even the opposition may not bother to set one in motion if the crisis doesn't cross a certain threshold. Mourão won't organize Bolsonaro's fall himself, that would fall to Maia. For Maia unseating both Bolsonaro and Mourão to get himself the throne is harder than unseating Bolsonaro alone and getting concessions from Mourão. Bolsonaro is buying support in the center. But if it comes down to parliamentary negotiation ability Maia wins.

Bernd 05/04/2020 (Mon) 05:42:53 [Preview] No.36524 del
Is there a talk about impeachment in the media? What are the chances it's just imitation of the US? I'm thinking that Bolsonaro was called the Brazilian Trump, so might be they just took over this impeachment nonsense from the US because that was a popular topic there.

Bernd 05/04/2020 (Mon) 12:35:00 [Preview] No.36526 del
>Is there a talk about impeachment in the media?
A lot of talk right now.
>What are the chances it's just imitation of the US?
It's an imitation of Dilma, not Trump.

Bernd 05/04/2020 (Mon) 14:05:26 [Preview] No.36528 del
Oh yeah, they did her. Her VP was from the opposition or from the same coalition? How about current VP?

Bernd 05/04/2020 (Mon) 16:19:33 [Preview] No.36532 del
Dilma's VP was Temer, from the center which until 2015 was the left's coalition partner. Around 2015 the center saw Dilma was weak, switched to the opposition, overthrew her minority government and enlisted the right as its coalition partner.
Right now Bolsonaro's VP is ideologically aligned with him and not part of Maia's faction.

Bernd 05/04/2020 (Mon) 18:36:09 [Preview] No.36536 del
And since Mourao doesn't busy himself with impeaching Bolsonaro, and impeaching only Bolsonaro wouldn't change much on the big picture, both should have to go, but that's a harder walnut.
I guess then, an "attack" will depend on if Maia can make a deal with the VP. And even then, it isn't sure it would succeed, a very solid case needed to be built up - I assume - to make the impeachment happen. And for that it is very important that the key people in the justice system play for the right team. How's the new police director and justice minister? Are they the men of Bolsonaro?

Bernd 05/04/2020 (Mon) 21:07:21 [Preview] No.36541 del
>I guess then, an "attack" will depend on if Maia can make a deal with the VP
He doesn't even need to make a deal, if Mourão is given the fait accompli of an impeachment he will have no choice but to compromise and make concessions.
>And for that it is very important that the key people in the justice system play for the right team.
The Supreme Court would side with Maia.
>How's the new police director and justice minister? Are they the men of Bolsonaro?
They're loyal. He had the authority to do this, it just came at a political price.

Bernd 05/08/2020 (Fri) 20:15:29 [Preview] No.36612 del
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Huh, the black automobile can come for me any minute nao.
This is so stupid. While I also agree that this period should have clearly defined expiry date, Orbán and co. touched nothing which wasn't related to managing this "crisis". Our "independent" media is breddy gud pointing out abuse, but not much around. Beside the usual corruption.
With their 2/3 majority they can pretty much do anything anyway.

For later read I put this here:
Election in Polan arriving fast. Or maybe not?

Bernd 05/09/2020 (Sat) 14:46:30 [Preview] No.36620 del
It's a nickname for all the important branches of state owned companies here. Similarly "of the treasury".

On political level this circus with the election, is a storm in the chamberpot, blew out of proportion. It will be held when it can be. It will be postponed by a couple of months, so what. It's just something to be very concerned of, something that politicians can pretend they very much busy with, this question is important so they are important.
What I don't get, how cannot be this set up electronically. Vote over the internets. People are worried about AI and virtuality, and implanted microchips via vaccination, and surveillance... they can't even organize a fuckin election. Srsly.


Bernd 05/10/2020 (Sun) 20:50:56 [Preview] No.36649 del
good doc about argentina

https://youtube.com/watch?v=Eu_0o9OtCDw [Embed]

Bernd 05/10/2020 (Sun) 21:09:53 [Preview] No.36651 del
Unfucking South American countries is an unsolvable puzzle.
Gonna try to watch that in the next couple of days.

Bernd 05/12/2020 (Tue) 12:56:01 [Preview] No.36695 del
Valeixo testified. He said he did not hear from Bolsonaro of scrutinizing any specific investigation and thus cannot accuse him of political interference, and also that his dismissal came with Bolsonaro's insistence because the President desired a Director with affinity to him, and yet his exit from his post had to be officially registered as having been by his own will. Discourses aligned with the President claim the first part of this as a triumph but the second shows he lied about Valeixo's dismissal having been by his own will.

Bernd 05/12/2020 (Tue) 15:07:49 [Preview] No.36697 del
I think this will be enough to keep Bolsonaro afloat. The second part isn't too problematic. Media can chew it a little but not really dangerous.

Bernd 05/15/2020 (Fri) 19:54:16 [Preview] No.36753 del
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Panic in Liberaland.
The German Constitutional Court basically overruled the Court of Justice of the European Union. The question in itself seems important, but I know very little about it (it's monetary politics). I haven't even read these articles in their entirety, I just copypasted them here as a reference.
This decision the German Court made, has an interesting side effect, which switched the Hungarian liberal media into panic mode. One of their chief source of satisfaction that the EU Court of Justice make decisions against Hungary and the Hungarian government. Most recent example of their gloating over the reprimand over how Hungary handles the migrant question. Now with the German example (placing national laws before EU laws) in front of them, they are afraid that Orbán will make the Hungarian Supreme Court (Kúria), or even our Constitutional Court to rule over decisions coming from the EU.
Great hope of the opposition that the EU will somehow remove Fidesz from power (since themselves are incapable of that), they are constantly lobbying for the intervention of Brussels (or in case of Court of Justice, Luxembourg). Or if they can't at least hamper and penalize Hungary as much as they can. Now Orbán might be able to just shrug things off.

Bernd 05/16/2020 (Sat) 18:10:53 [Preview] No.36774 del
>eu doing anything to remove fidesz

EU benefits greatly from having a mini-dictatorship in Europe that they can offload dirty work onto. Same reason that Brussels doesn't ultimately care too much that Poland is slipping into authoritarianism.

Bernd 05/16/2020 (Sat) 18:17:22 [Preview] No.36776 del
Yeah, it's a possibility, that they use Orbán and the others as an outlet, or even experimenting with not that liberal democracies.

Bernd 06/28/2020 (Sun) 20:23:32 [Preview] No.38127 del
Polan had presidential election today. Candidates needed 505 for a win. Since noone reached that second round will come up between the first two:
1. Duda
2. Trzaskowski
I hope Duda wins coz it can be spelled easier. Btw he is backed by the ruling party (right wing, conservative), the other guy is the candidate of the major opposing party, which is apparently a liberal-conservative one, member of EPP.

Bernd 06/28/2020 (Sun) 20:23:57 [Preview] No.38128 del

Bernd 06/28/2020 (Sun) 20:51:19 [Preview] No.38129 del
Maybe its a way of controlling flow of people. Both hungary and poland has a big border fence. Perhaps its a way of keeping people inside.

Bernd 06/29/2020 (Mon) 05:16:09 [Preview] No.38143 del
(79.09 KB 1250x724 Orban_arc.jpg)
Not entirely unplausible.

Bernd 06/29/2020 (Mon) 06:54:13 [Preview] No.38146 del
>keeping people inside
inside of eu. Forgot to mention that.

Fences, walls are most often used to keep people inside, even though the popular perception is that its to keep intruders out.

Bernd 07/14/2020 (Tue) 20:32:16 [Preview] No.38610 del
So how a President can be elected among the opposition if the Parliament votes on his person and it's not up to popular election?
I don't know in what other countries Presidents are picked by the legislative body, but we can take a look at Hungary.
But a caveat: here the President is weak, so to speak, the authority, the power of the position is narrow, more like a figurehead, a symbol of national unity and such. Not sure how would play out to elect a President with strong powers by the parliament. The US has this weird electorate system, which is basically a combination or rather a compromise between popular and legislative votes.

First thing first, a shortlist of our Presidents:
Göncz Árpád - 1990-1995, 1995-2000
Mádl Ferenc - 2000-2005
Sólyom László - 2005-2010
Schmitt Pál - 2010-2012
Kövér László - 2012-2012 - was for a month, acting temporarily, more later at his part.
Áder János - 2012-2017, 2017-2022(?)

Bernd 07/14/2020 (Tue) 20:34:33 [Preview] No.38611 del
(3.47 MB 3398x3752 Göncz-Árpád.jpg)
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Göncz Árpád (1990-2000)
The translator (the second one actually) of The Lord of the Rings. Sentenced for life after the 1956 Revolution and War of Independence, but as the system thawed, he got amnesty. Before that was a member of a national conservative agrarian party, after that he wasn't allowed into politics for a long time, this led to him to writing and translating. Several of his works was published in the Galaktika magazine I introduced in this thread >>36876
About the end of the Kádár-era and the socialism, he became a founding member of the biggest liberal party the SZDSZ, which after the regime change ended up being the second largest party in the Parliament in 1990. First he was the Speaker of the National Assembly, then was elected as a President. But he was from the opposition, how could this happen?
After the first round of the legislative election, everything seemed possible. Between the first two parties, the MDF (conservative) and the SZDSZ, there wasn't much of a gap. There were talks about grand-coalition between them, but ideologically it wasn't really a fit. After the second round the coalition was created by the MDF, the FKgP (agrarian conservative) and KDNP (christian conservative).
Just before setting up the new government, the MDF's candidate for the Prime Ministry, Antall József, reached out to the second largest SZDSZ - which wasn't going to be a member of the governing coalition -. and formed a pact with them. Opinions on this pact widely differ, and it is fiercely debated, it's a large topic and it's impossible to sort out who is right, so I won't go into that direction. What belongs here that they voted together a number of laws, modifications of the constitution, and part of the deal the MDF let the SZDSZ giving the President, in the person of Göncz.
Additional information: this pact decided that the Prime Minister will be the central figure of the government, and the President has a lesser role.
In 1994 the SZDSZ became a junior partner in a coalition with the MSZP (socialists in name), so for his next term he was delegated by the governing parties (who had the 2/3 of the seats).
Since our Presidents are in office for 5 years per term, he become a President from the opposition in 1998, when the Fidesz could form a governing coalition after the elections (as a conservative party, they started out as a minor liberal behind the SZDSZ, back in 1990).
As far as I can tell he is widely regarded as a goodish President, he was kinda sold as a grandpa of the nation.

Mádl Ferenc (2000-2005)
A jurist (not a practicing lawyer or a judge, but a researcher and professor), member of Hungarian Academy of Sciences. Was minister without portfolio, then Minister of Education, in the first cabinet, from 1990-1994. He was the opposition candidate for Presidency in 1995, he had to wait to 2000, when the FKgP - a minor coalition partner of the Fidesz - nominated him for the position. He could run for the second term, but he called pass.
As a President he felt... flat, grey, not noteworthy. He is bad looking and spoke weird. He wasn't picked for this barely of a position for his high Charisma stat.

Bernd 07/14/2020 (Tue) 20:36:14 [Preview] No.38612 del
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Sólyom László (2005-2010)
Again a jurist, professor, member of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences, and as I already wrote member of the Constitutional Court. Sounds serious. I remember the media depicted him an a good light and generally everyone was ok with him. Originally a founding member of the MDF, but when he was appointed into the Constitutional Court he gave up all of his offices and quit the party as well. He was elected to president of the CC.
When he got his position as a Head of State he was unofficially nominated by an NGO, which, I dunno, does stuff, they do some environmental, green activism. His official candidacy was backed by Fidesz and MDF. His election was exciting, as exciting as such can be. The election of the President is a three round process, in the first two, it needs a 2/3 to elect a new Prez, in the third a simple majority is enough. He was elected in the third, the governing parties were divided, the minor coalition partner (the SZDSZ at that time, which managed to slide down from the respectable second biggest party to a mere 5 percenter, barely in the Assembly party) didn't support anyone.
He referred to himself as an independent candidate all along.
He did some controversial stuff. He was very active sending laws to the Constitutional Court, or back to the Parliament for further discussion. Criticized the political leadership after the 2006 protests, refused to give a merit (a high one) to the socialist PM of 1994-1998, Horn Gyula, because that dude was a petty communist thug back in the Rákosi-era, who shot at the revolutionaries in 1956... He also suggested holding a new election during the 2009 governmental crisis. He was in the center of some issues in foreign relations as well. He stated he won't visit the United States as long as they fingerprint Hungarian citizens. Northern Hungary declared him a "security risk" and refused his entry to their country when he was invited to an inauguration of a statue (of king Saint Stephen).
In 2010 his mandate ended, and legislative elections came as well. Fidesz won. Civilians lobbied for his re-election. I don't know if his controversial actions meant a risk, but Orbán wanted someone more placid instead. So we arrive to...

Schmitt Pál (2010-2012)
Sportsman, won two Olympic gold medals in fencing (and some World Championships). He remained at sports for a long time was the vice-president of the International Olympic Committee, but was diplomat, ambassador in various countries.
In Hungary's politics, he started out as quasi-independent, Fidesz backed, candidate for the office of Budapest's Lord Mayor. Previously he tried to get this position, that time he sought help from the Socialist Party (MSZP), but was sent to Bern as ambassador. Then before he was elected as President, he was a member of the Europen Parliament, in the colors of Fidesz, in fact he was a vice-president in the Fidesz during those times.
In 2010 the legislative election, and the election of a new President coincided, so the freshly elected Fidesz-KDNP - backed by over the two-thirds of the seats they won - put its own man into the seat of the head of state.
However it turned out he copypasted much of his doctoral dissertation back in 1992, and after the scandal he resigned.
Absolute puppet of the Fidesz.

Bernd 07/14/2020 (Tue) 20:37:56 [Preview] No.38613 del
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Kövér László (2012 April - 2012 May)
Since Schmitt had to gone ahead of time, temporarily the Speaker of the National Assembly served as an acting President, and it was Kövér. I won't spend time on him for this reason.

Áder János (2012-)
Jurist but nothing exceptional. Basically an ancient Fideszchik, basically knows Orbán since his uni years, not a founder but entered the Fidesz very early. Vice-president of the party a couple of times. Was Speaker of the National Assembly, representative in the EU Parliament.
His election was controversial. Fidesz-KDNP with it's 2/3 did easy job. Only other party which voted was the Jobbik, all with No. Other parties did not vote or left the Assembly before the vote. Nice circus.
I think his activity is entirely scripted by the Fidesz leadership. He is very busy signing every law they put in front of him.

So that's it. The balance isn't even that bad. I'm not sure what the future holds. Right now the Fidesz holds the steering wheel firm, not sure when their hands will fall off. So they deal the cards, and their cadres get the positions.

Bernd 07/15/2020 (Wed) 05:12:44 [Preview] No.38622 del
Forgot to mention, this post >>38580 compelled me to write this little overview. I should have add more about Göncz's Presidency, a couple of events, maybe revisit him, we'll see.

Bernd 07/15/2020 (Wed) 07:34:42 [Preview] No.38623 del
president of Hungary? but Austria-Hungary has an emperor.

Bernd 07/15/2020 (Wed) 20:11:48 [Preview] No.38629 del
The Constitution contains the regulations about the President. Articles 9 to 14 deal with the question. Quite longish, I might just copypaste the whole thing here, or give a condensed version. I haven't decided yet.
Here is the whole constitution (so I can find it):
After the regime change we had the Stalinist constitution with some corrections, chiefly done by the MDF-SZDSZ pact. After the pact the representatives in the Parliament spoke about creating a new one, but that didn't happen. Then the Fidesz made it's own constitution in 2011. We call it Fundamental Law. I'm really curious how the provisions about the President differ in the two. Btw, officially the President is called the 1'President of the Republic''.

Er ist nicht mein Kaiser!

Bernd 07/15/2020 (Wed) 20:36:25 [Preview] No.38632 del
Elect Bolsanaro they said, he'll revive the Empire they said..

Bernd 07/17/2020 (Fri) 13:40:36 [Preview] No.38652 del
>Er ist nicht mein Kaiser!
Of course. He's your König.
He doesn't even rule in his own family and over his sons.

Bernd 07/17/2020 (Fri) 14:54:53 [Preview] No.38653 del
Wasn't election nor coronation.
I wonder who else got some blood of the Árpáds.

Bernd 09/04/2020 (Fri) 19:44:38 [Preview] No.39769 del
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you can't make this shit up

Bernd 11/01/2020 (Sun) 21:16:17 [Preview] No.40827 del
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US presidential election incoming on Tuesday. Finally it will be over soon. Then comes the usual hysteria, probably with further demonstrations.
Like the last time, media predicts Trumps loss, but that means nothing in itself, like the last time.
We'll see.

Bernd 11/03/2020 (Tue) 06:48:05 [Preview] No.40841 del
Ok. Peeps vote today, but I think there are changes due covid or something, I don't follow have to read about it. Since it's an indirect system, they vote for the electors, who then vote for the person of the President (and VP). Not sure how long will this take, and when we're gonna get the final result, sure it's not today or tomorrow, about this, I also have to gather info.

Bernd 11/03/2020 (Tue) 17:09:28 [Preview] No.40845 del
(1.00 MB 1200x869 vote-here.jpg)
Here's Ballotpedia:
Abundance of information, like "Battleground states" which means swing states (states not committed to either party) just sounds more dramatic.
It lists the hot issues (and links the stands of the candidates on them): abortion, criminal justice, economy, education, energy and environmental issues, foreign policy, gun regulation, healthcare, immigration, impeachment, labor, and trade. Not sure what labor is about, the others, I can guess.
It also says the Electoral College will cast their votes in mid-December... so whatever will be the result of this day, the agony will go on for over an months. If Trump gets the majority of the votes now (actually they vote on the Electoral College, no?) probably everyone expects chimpouts.

>How and when are election results finalized?
>Election results are finalized through processes called canvassing and certification.
>The certification deadline in six states is within one week of the election.
>In 26 states and the District of Columbia, the certification deadline is between November 10 and November 30.
>In 14 states, the certification deadline is in December.
>Four states (Hawaii, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Tennessee) do not have statutory deadlines for results certification.
So we might not even know the result tomorrow. However surely they'll give something to the media and the people, which will be close to the final results, similarly to exit polls.

Bernd 11/04/2020 (Wed) 01:43:50 [Preview] No.40849 del
I expect both sides to chimp out one way or another. Though hopefully they'll get bored with waiting.
This is kinda shit though. Would have been nicer to get the thing over in one night. A good chunk of the english net's going to be even more unuseable for weeks.

Bernd 11/04/2020 (Wed) 12:53:13 [Preview] No.40852 del
Cliffhanger, very possibly Biden wins with the remaining states.

Bernd 11/04/2020 (Wed) 16:19:41 [Preview] No.40854 del
I have to change that hat if Biden wins. Maybe to the blue KC ones.

Read it might depend on the mail voters.

Bernd 11/04/2020 (Wed) 16:46:25 [Preview] No.40855 del
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>Predictions about a blue shift in election results
This says:
According to the blue shift thesis, Democratic voters are more likely to use provisional ballots than Republican voters. A provisional ballot is one that is only counted after the voter's eligibility to vote is verified. Because provisional ballots can be counted after election night, according to this picture, Democratic candidates tend to make greater gains after election night than Republican candidates do.
So basically these provisional ballots will largely decide who winsin which states from those we're still waiting for to be counted.

Bernd 11/05/2020 (Thu) 06:46:31 [Preview] No.40863 del
Biden seemed to secure Michigan and Wisconsin, which means in the rest of the yet undecided states (Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada, Alaska) Trump has to win to get reelected, and Biden only needs Nevada's backing to get the 270 electorates needed for the presidency.
Now, what I don't know if the electors have to vote in December according to this result we're getting sometimes hopefully soon? But then, why they need to vote at all? Have to look this up too.

Bernd 11/06/2020 (Fri) 01:08:48 [Preview] No.40879 del
Lots of hurt feelings in these past few hours.

Bernd 11/06/2020 (Fri) 06:47:35 [Preview] No.40881 del
(1.62 MB 1380x1412 rt-20201106.png)
I read there's some chimpouts already.

This shit is ridiculous, rt's front page down to the "Sports" section.
I mean yeah it supposed to be an important event (it really less important than they blow up to be), but this isn't an American news site, and stuff did not stop happening about the world.

Bernd 11/06/2020 (Fri) 12:06:14 [Preview] No.40882 del
The police have their hands full with magapedes now. The boys in blue have had a tough year.

Bernd 11/06/2020 (Fri) 23:31:22 [Preview] No.40891 del
While I don't generally believe in the 4D chess meme that follows the old man, part of me thinks that his encouragement of live voting versus mail-in was a calculated move. Like he expected a wave of Dem mail voters and wanted his share segregated so as to make the wave as steep as possible.
If he wins then he just wins. If he loses he can point at the spikes and that galvanizes his mooks to get mad at something. Still, this is embarrassing on his part.

Bernd 11/07/2020 (Sat) 06:28:03 [Preview] No.40892 del
This is so slow.
Wouldn't be the benefit of mail voting, that it can be sent prior to voting day, and they can be just mixed in the the normal votes? I read they even have that practice.

Bernd 11/07/2020 (Sat) 09:29:13 [Preview] No.40894 del
Obviously it's deliberately slow. I think the purpose is to soften the blow and encourage acceptance. Not only they were slow, they stopped and started every day, there was dilly-dallying avoiding to give definitive answers, they tried to spread out the subtotal reports (if they counted 100k A votes, they waited to count some 20k B votes and published them in chunks, interspersing them), they waited until late in the night to publish 'interesting' reports (overtake in Georgia was published at 4 am central), etc. The polarization is close to complete and there's been riots, arson and murder in the streets for months up until some weeks ago, so this overstretched process was probably designed.

Bernd 11/07/2020 (Sat) 16:01:41 [Preview] No.40897 del
>soften the blow and encourage acceptance
If they're doing that they might have to wait years, judging by how some people took the 2016 election. Only now the other side's going to be plagued by their own derangement syndrome. I'm of the idea that they'll drop the results at the start of the week, in the hopes that potential rioters are too busy working.

Bernd 11/07/2020 (Sat) 16:51:47 [Preview] No.40898 del
Well never mind that, it's ogre.

Bernd 11/07/2020 (Sat) 17:01:28 [Preview] No.40899 del
Yeah, Biden won. And as I saw last time the Democrats stood better in Congress seats and the two party were head to head for the Senate ones. I guess, they won those seats too. Gonna check somewhere. These news site are so shit, and very capable in hiding the facts behind flashy headlines and irrelevant bs.

Bernd 11/07/2020 (Sat) 18:13:14 [Preview] No.40900 del
Just hope Biden doesn't take a hostile and destructive attitude towards us because of the blue bar.

Bernd 11/07/2020 (Sat) 18:17:49 [Preview] No.40901 del
I guess those with "green" agenda support Democrats. What they will do depends on the strength of the lobby and expectations.

Bernd 12/05/2020 (Sat) 19:01:06 [Preview] No.41342 del
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Musing about this situation with Szájer.
Besides that he looks like a typical caricature in Der Stürmer it really shows how hard to find reliable people, with acceptable morality, whom are knowledgeable at least in one thing, and capable of taking action. This guy is a slick operator, 60 years old spent most of his life building the Fidesz, participating at such important moves like the creation of the new constitution, and his career was torpedoed because he couldn't control himself and his urges. Now he is smeared all over the road of politics and the Fidesz can't do much just step over and pretend nothing happened and continue with whatever they do nowadays.
And this the thing with politics. It is impossible to run a party without the liability humans and their shortcomings mean. The best they can do is keeping them hushed up, pretending they don't even exist, then keeping head held high without shame when some of it floats to the surface like a big fat turd. Starting media campaign to parry media attacks and derail the smear campaign.
Simple honest people with good-ish moral compasses can't do this. You have to be a special kind of a villain.
And you need accomplices for your act. And generally they'll be useless. Purely ambition won't make them reliable (just unreliable), smart, knowledgeable, capable of action, or in short: useful. Mostly you'll get dead weight who always want something from you, and who will be careless, and lazy. How to make a new force that would capable of changing things with this material? You can be the most honest and straight person, the cleanest ever, but you need to know that the next one - even the most benevolent - will have something that could turn over your boat.

Bernd 12/06/2020 (Sun) 12:11:40 [Preview] No.41355 del
What Bernd thinks, how could one end in politics nowadays?
I can see a couple of ways.
Like being a huge fanboy of a party or another, so the peep signs up and plays lackey for a long time. If he has any real ambition, he will grab opportunities and become a functionary within a party and maybe the higher ups will give him a position in the state bureaucracy if the party won an election or something.
Or maybe via local activism, starts out as someone who gets enough from the incompetence of the local politicians and stagnation of his immediate patria. And takes action doing something by himself, raises awareness, glues stencils upon lampposts about the issues. Exploits social media, draws attention to the problems, narrowcasts his ideas of change. Maybe he does this in some funny or outrageous way, so even the media notices, making a country-wide news out of him and his initiative. Various joke parties would fit the bill, like the Hungarian Two-tailed Dog Party.
What else?

Bernd 12/06/2020 (Sun) 12:23:09 [Preview] No.41356 del
Most politicians (particularly here) don't start out as politicians, they are lawyers, bankers and such for a while and then they enter politics almost on the side in many cases. I don't think many important politicians do come from ground up movements or even from a position where they join a large party at a young age whilst having no education and hope to just climb the ladder like that, it does not seem to work. Politics is a game for the rich and connected.

Bernd 12/06/2020 (Sun) 12:29:20 [Preview] No.41357 del
That is a good point.
One can be a person with a reputation of some level in his locality, with connections on the side he made during his career. Most likely not even to one party, but several. Since he already known by a considerable percentage of the people, he will be a person of interest in those parties, someone to get hold onto. He could use one of the parties to get into politics and the party could use him to gain support and get votes. A marriage made in heaven.

Bernd 12/06/2020 (Sun) 12:32:02 [Preview] No.41358 del
Btw lots of politicians doesn't have political education (in political science, the can get it later), here too, many of them starts out with degree in law.
The ones with degree in political science are often used as payed experts, to consult, or to make eggsbert sounding reasoning for a purposed law or something.

Bernd 12/06/2020 (Sun) 17:11:06 [Preview] No.41360 del
wont be any politicians when communitarianism is fully implemented. technocracy and ai will do the rest.

Bernd 12/06/2020 (Sun) 20:18:50 [Preview] No.41366 del
Romania is holding a parliamentary election today. Besides the RMDSZ (Demcratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania, the acronym is UDMR in Romanian) I know next to nothing about the parties of Romania so here goes what I found in short notice.
The Romanian parliament is a bicameral one and they are electing the deputies into the Chamber of Deputies. The fate of 329 seats is getting decided.
Largest party is PSD, social democrats, which apparent means little nowadays, since they seem to be somewhat nationalist and euro-skeptic. Wikipee says:
>Political position: Catch-all
Heh. They were close to 50% last time,
Next is PNL, the "National Liberal Party", they are sitting in the EPP with Fidesz in the EU Parliament, liberal conservatives.
And now we arrived to the small ones.
USR, or the Save Romania Union. Liberal progressive party. They are running as 2020 USR-PLUS Alliance with another group.
UDMR or RMDSZ how we call it, besides representing the minority Hungarian interest, they are aligned along the Fidesz, liberal conservatives (and such member of EPP). Read just before our foreign minister, Szijjártó Petya, campaigned for them, in a form of recorded phone calls. They called Romanian peeps too generating some butthurt, actually rightfully, me thinks.
ALD, Alliance of Liberals and Democrats. They represent conservative liberalism and social liberalism. They merged with PRO Romania Social Liberal for the election.
The last one worth mentioning is the People's Movement Party or PMP. It's a little party, lil PuMP. They are Christian democrats I guess. Hmm, they support union with Moldova. Interdasting.

Well, make sure to end up as technocrat.

Bernd 12/07/2020 (Mon) 00:19:58 [Preview] No.41369 del
Not to mention party leaders may not ditch a scandal-prone operator unless they have strong evidence of his misgivings, as the party is a bureaucracy and thus has a strong incentive to prioritize keeping the machine running by conserving a quality cog.

Bernd 12/07/2020 (Mon) 00:51:57 [Preview] No.41370 del
Sounds good.

Bernd 12/07/2020 (Mon) 06:52:51 [Preview] No.41373 del
Oh yeah, good cadres are hard to come by. Especially those who can do stuff by themselves and don't need babysitting. Better to use him to build as much as he can, getting some flak because of him later will be less damaging on the long run, it just needs to tough it out.
Which makes me think: what was the doing in Brussels. Our parties tend to send their most useless cunts there, like Deutsch Tamás (also from Fidesz). Maybe Szájer was less useful nowadays, or maybe he was doing something important.
Or - if I want to go a paranoid direction - maybe his party itself wanted him gone, but if they's initiated they might have spilled the beans, he must now a lot, so he needed to compromise himself, so they could say: "you have to go and make it look like it's your decision". A little faggotry and drug abuse doesn't mean much for the voters I think, many Fidesz voters aren't Fidesz supporters just don't want the other side to win. They got enough of the "socialists" and the liberals and from certain people (chiefly Gyurcsány, previous PM) on the opposition. And Jobbik is/was too radical, and now they are considered as turncoats by many for cooperating with the left-libs. Also the Mi Hazánk is too radical again. I think in 2022 still the Fidesz will win.

Bernd 12/07/2020 (Mon) 06:56:57 [Preview] No.41374 del
I would never trust anyone with a nose like that

Bernd 12/07/2020 (Mon) 06:58:12 [Preview] No.41375 del
You can open a door with that kinda knob.

Bernd 12/08/2020 (Tue) 18:04:34 [Preview] No.41422 del
Turnout was awful, only 31,84%. This covid circus might have something to do with it, I don't know how Romanians are disenchanted with politics in general.

I can't really find source with 100% of votes counted so I can only write estimates, but the ranking is clear.
PSD ~30%
PNL ~25,5%
USR-PLUS ~15,5%
AUR ~9%
RMDSZ (UDMR) ~6% (probably little below)
These parties reached the threshold of 5% for sure. I read that for PMP and PRO Romania that's just a little out of reach. I also read PMP did make it, barely, but did. Will see.

A probable setup for government is a coalition of PNL, USR-PLUS, and UDMR; if PMP is in then them too. The thing is that noone wants to make coalition with PSD (or AUR) so they could only govern if they got over half of the votes. (Actually less than 50% of the votes because they need the seats, and that will be decided after they "reweigh" the votes. Anyway.)

The unexpected black horse is the AUR, compared to themselves (they are new and small) it's a huge win. They are a nationalist bunch, with a program that includes the unification of Romania and Moldova. I think their logo is breddy well thought out, including their neighbouring republic both in Romania and in EU. Also yellow and black together are impressive colors. Too bad they are extremely anti-Hungarian. Oh well.
Their sudden popularity partially can be thanked for the Romanian emigres. About 3 million Romanian disappeared from Romania, they chiefly work and live in western EU now and AUR is very supported among them. Even their leader George Simion founded his movement in England. About 25% of AUR votes are gastarbeiter vote. Another factor is the low turnout, this always favors the smaller and/or radical parties since their supporters generally are more resolute - I suppose this helped RMDSZ as well.

Huh, I can kinda recall Moldova also had elections recently. Some grill won or something, no?

I also couldn't really find a chart or a map, this sucks.

Bernd 12/10/2020 (Thu) 07:49:46 [Preview] No.41464 del
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>Huh, I can kinda recall Moldova also had elections recently. Some grill won or something, no?

Yes, and she (Sandu) causes some shitstorm in Russian media, because old pro-Russian candidate (Dodon) lost completely. Now media in small-scale "Ukrainian mode", i.e. "evil nato eurogays are evil, and Moldova is their new outpost".

Pridnestrovie was forgotten for long time, but now it is in the news again.

Bernd 12/10/2020 (Thu) 08:08:29 [Preview] No.41465 del
Moldova is lightyears from entering EU - even Russia would enter EU before them - so no real worries there.
It's a bit odd to see a woman emerging as a leader instead some old party-soldier, and/or mafioso, and/or alcoholic cleptocrat. It creates the illusion that things can change, especially if he has different program as the previous guys. Also maybe it adds the "here comes mommy and change your diaper you shitted full" vibes.
>Pridnestrovie was forgotten for long time
I always forget about it too.

Bernd 12/10/2020 (Thu) 13:50:11 [Preview] No.41469 del
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>Moldova is their new outpost

Bernd 12/11/2020 (Fri) 19:19:18 [Preview] No.41491 del

Australia to pass surveillance bill that'll allow children as young as 14 to be interrogated by government agents and could see journalists jailed for 5 years for refusing to reveal sources. Authorities could hack, secretly takeover, and add, copy, and delete material on computers.

Bernd 12/12/2020 (Sat) 15:11:23 [Preview] No.41515 del
And the youtube link:
https://youtube.com/watch?v=Rs4abu01dVI [Embed]

Bernd 12/12/2020 (Sat) 15:18:14 [Preview] No.41518 del
Nobody replied to my thread so it probably doesn't matter that it was moved here...

Anyway, I should have mentioned before, this is the interactive map website thing that breaks down the aspects of the Power Index.


Bernd 12/12/2020 (Sat) 15:26:19 [Preview] No.41519 del
I need time to watch at least some of the video.
The power balance in the Pacific is an important matter, but since it's politics, I think it fits here tight.

Bernd 12/13/2020 (Sun) 11:51:56 [Preview] No.41533 del

fasinating development. I thought poland hungary was more at the right spectrum of politics.

Bernd 12/13/2020 (Sun) 15:11:53 [Preview] No.41544 del
Yeah, had that from 1998 - opened by the Socialist govt. - to 2012, when the Fidesz govt. gulped it down to keep the budget in balance. Such cases.

Bernd 12/13/2020 (Sun) 15:44:21 [Preview] No.41550 del
I suspect it will be like when rome fell and diocletian more and more taxation until it becomes absurd


Bernd 12/13/2020 (Sun) 20:13:58 [Preview] No.41585 del
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That article.
>EU is socialist
I really like how American liberals define socialism.

Bernd 12/14/2020 (Mon) 16:25:12 [Preview] No.41591 del
Looking into that. Starts good:
>reminder that legitimacy and leadership on the world stage begins with the capacity of leaders to govern well at home

Bernd 12/14/2020 (Mon) 19:34:12 [Preview] No.41592 del
Okay, so the sound quality was awful, two of them had bad accent was hard to understand, the old guy I could have understand fine but his part was way too quiet.
Anyway their conversations isn't that very interesting, the stats and the site is more like it.
I'm not sure if the trends can be extended very much to the future, so I'm not sure if Australia will be The Superpower of the Pacific soon or at all. I find Vietnam's growth more exciting.
On the apropos of our non-Japanese Japanese occasional visitor - and his open hatred of Korea - I do think counterbalancing China can only be done by cooperation of the "smaller" powers, and India has to be included in that. Maybe Australia can have a leading place in this.
Also probably it would also be important not to tear Asia in half, and set up two power blocks, one centered around China, and the other that oppose this one, but keeping in touch with the small countries that might gravitate toward China.
Also I hear conflicting opinions about China, on one hand she is still scary and people are noting her potential to grow more strong, on the other people try dismiss her power which based on various economic trickery, inflated via public fundings, building the ghost cities and such. I dunno about China, but EU and the US are loosing pace, it seems to me. Especially the EU looks like a farce, the US still has Silicon Valley.

Bernd 12/20/2020 (Sun) 12:10:46 [Preview] No.41696 del
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An American backed, Gladio-cultivated group inserted during the 80's coup as a fundamentalist religious cult neck deep in espionage, crime, assassination, extortion, terrorism, coup, social engineering and ideological indoctrination. Their ties with CIA has long been proven, if not explicitly disclosed by the USA itself.

This is the group that have been working tooth and nail to bring down the secular republic, the very foundation of Turkey. Republicanism in Turkey is not a political perspective, it's one of the main bodies of how the state works. Gulenists have been working for decades to bring down that pillar. Not only they are against the main existence of Turkey itself, but they act as pawns of the US. They remove their opponents, extort large business owners, get paid from very dark sources, insert their people into everywhere, from American colleges to Turkish state institutions. Lately I even heard about them having part in recruiting to isis.

When I say assassination I'm not exaggerating. The word itself is probably too light to describe the violent ways they use to get rid of journalists and political figures that often brought out their crap into the public. They also had a play in the assassination of the military researchers/engineers that take place in Turkey frequently, much like the assassination of Iranian scientists. They can hide themselves as anything, from progressive islamists to Turkish nationalists. In truth they serve to nothing but global neoliberalism and their own inner monstrosities.

They mostly based upon "moderate islam though" Moderate enough to be consumarist, pro-american laptog, islamist enough to be jihadi pawns of USA. Before AKP they were infiltrating, after AKP they were specifically placed in bureucracy. Under no circumstances assume these people have any kind of patriotism, they don't they only serve themselves to suceed they serve USA.

AKP: Erdogs party. They started their journey with liboş (Turkish liberashkas, "colonial elite" people) and "moderate islamist" gülenists. They were massively pro PKK, they even called their dead equal with Turkish martryrs. The only reason why the military didn't fuck them over with coup d'etad is general staff was secretly gülenist. It was one of the reasons why the military failed to counter PKK. Because of the "don't shoot if they don't shoot against you". Many of independent sources confirm this. Eventually AKP strenghten their pro-PKK positing due to consistent and intentional military failures, with the "don't let mothers cry anymore" rhetoric. While all of these were happening, the west celebrating our democracy while our constitution were repedeatly raped.

TSK: Turkish military forces. Elite of the elites of the republic. Every state that it worths their salt has a deep state that keeps the state together, in Russia it's the intelligence, in Turkey it's the military. TSK have legal status and responsibility to protect the constitution, because common rabble won't you can trust me on that. So coups are actually LEGAL.

With Ergenekon and Balyoz kangoroo courts, the military purged worse than what happened in france during french revolution. Especially navy forces got hit so bad. It was one of the reasons why Greece so easily working on their ways to de-facto blockade us from the medditerranean and create national threat against us thanks to traitors amongst us.

Nowadays Gülenists have two proxy parties, DEVA and Gelecek party. First one targets more liberashkas and apolitical youth latter targets moderate islamists that fed up with Erdoğan (close to non existant)

Bernd 12/20/2020 (Sun) 12:11:14 [Preview] No.41697 del


TSK is stauncly kemalists and they are the only institution that they got it right. They have pro-NATO and eurasianist officers but none of them are eager to leave NATO, it's not about liking Russia or anything like that it's just pragmatism, in 90's we had military with eurasianist tendency. Needless to say USA didn't like it when we fucked over PKK and make Abdullah Öcalan talk like a bitch. They stopped disliking our military after Iraq invasion, they started to vehemently hate it.

USA don't want us allies they want us as dominions that is checked with other dominions such as kurdistan. So of course they bitch about muh genocide even when our "invasions" are very gentle on civilian deaths. According to treaty of Laussane and international laws we have right to intervene when a non state actors (such as terrorists) run amok in next to our borders.

CHP: Atatürk's party but not so much nowadays. There are pro-PKK CIA assets in the party the most notable one is TR705. After 2010's head of CHP Deniz Baykal has forced to resign becuse he was banging a female parliment member and gülenists taped it. They replaced him with a "social democrat guy". Every secularists that has 3 digit IQ knows we are nothing without military because we're something like Ashkenazi Jews in germany(hence the "white Turks" term), without military we have no hard power so we can be easily opressed. But of course this massive retard claims they come with vote and will go with vote, he doesnt even mention about our constitution getting raped. Appereantly our constitution is there for shits and gigles and people can do everything with votes.

The parties are in Turkey are not elected by popular vote but with delagtes. Since the delagtes are alevis from Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu's hometown, they mindlessly elect him despite consistent epic fails. The guy image amongst people, even amongst CHP voters is a fucking joke.
Before AKP most of our people were secular, islamist parties at best getting %15-20 of the votes. But CHP's weak attitude and letting secularists stuck in Thrace and coastal region is the thing that let AKP stays in power. CHP especially after 2010's intentionally tried to portray Atatürk as quasi libleft figure, as you can guess most people get Atatürk wrong, CHP's voterbase amongst anatolia has been diminished because of this. In 2018 presidental elections Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu most likely betrayed Muharrem İnce, there was massive fraud going on and the guy claims the party intentionally didn't place inspectors on voting boxes.

If you don't have balls you don't get votes from outside of the coasts. Compromising in Anatolia don't work. We have autocratic mentality, these retards are disconnected from reality.

MHP: Their predecessor has been created because CHP has been deviate from nationalism and Ataturk's ideals. This what Alparslan Türkeş claims, de-facto the founder of MHP. They are islamo-turkists, even though religion and nation still clashes in this nation, so being nationalist and conservative is not a realistic option here, you'll eventually disregard one of them. But of course MHP begs to differ.

They have marginal voterbase and always been so but they used to have massively energetic youth that creates trouble for pro-soviet proxies before 80's coup. After 80's coup they were sent to prisons just like lefties because it was hard to control them.

The party has rural voterbase and populist attitude but some of the higher ups are educated enough to keep their dignity. They support de-facto elite oligarch schools for bureaucracy, I think it's one of the few things they got it right. They usually prefer USA to Russia but since it's era of eurasianists in Turkey, they just go along with the wave.

Bernd 12/20/2020 (Sun) 12:11:32 [Preview] No.41698 del
Vatan Partisi: They got %0.22 of votes but why it is important? Because head of the party is an old KGB asset. He used to be communists but since communism is kys'd and eurasianism and EU sceptism is main ideology of Russia, he supports them. he guy used to get support of military staff that got purged with kangoroo courts but his support is kind of diminished. Massive eurasianists, openly calling to leave NATO. Despite they have meagre votes, they casually go meetings with Russia and China.
They are so eurasianists they call Uyghur Turks as terrorists and think CCP is right about them.

HDP: Pro-PKK party and don't even hide it. The only reason why they are not shut down because erdoğan scares half of the voterbase votes for CHP. They got higher votes for targeting hippie, left-liberals before that the predecessor party got %5 so they couldn't enter the parliment. Used to be Erdoğans best buddies.

İYİP: It was created as progressive MHP (dont take the word progressive as pidor WECTern word) then eventually turned into centre right since they purged elite ex military nationalists. It is rumored to become gülenist haven, but since peoples eyes have blinded by erdoğan hatred they usually disregard anything that comes from the other side.

Bernd 12/20/2020 (Sun) 12:14:04 [Preview] No.41699 del
"Devletto Bachievelli" theory about head of MHP Devlet Bahçeli. This one is not written by me but still interesting to read.

AKP as a relatively young party most popular with rural low-income voters has always lacked the manpower needed to efficiently run the state on its own. Initially, it was the Gülen movement which provided the support in the security bureaucracy in addition to the electoral support AKP received from Kurds and liberals. This was favorable for the West as the Gülen movement is a US-based organization that wouldn't challenge Washington's interests in the region. The most obvious example is how the peace process allowed the PKK to consolidate and advance its positions before the US would begin directly supporting the PKK in Syria. This would not have been possible under the previous secularist and nationalist military establishment.

Secularists had been increasingly anti-American, especially after the Western response to the PKK conflict, the 1997 "postmodern coup," and the secularists' refusal to cooperate with the Iraq invasion. This was why the US was such a strong advocate of Turkey's EU accession process - it allowed Gülenists to fill influential positions in the security bureaucracy with thousands of its followers, and liquidate secularists from power. The Ergenekon and Balyoz trials marked the transition from Turkish secularist/nationalist control of the state to pro-US Gülenist control, while the November 2015 election with AKP and MHP aligned began a reversal process back to putting nationalists in charge.

In hindsight, some of the many early signs of AKP-Gülenist tensions slowly unfolding began with the 2010 Mavi Marmara incident, after which Fethullah Gülen gave his first ever public statement to the US press just to distance himself from the government's actions, and later more significantly in 2013, after Erdoğan planned to abolish private “prep” schools that the Gülen movement relied on for funding and new followers. Shortly after were the 2013 corruption probes, which largely targeted Halkbank for exporting gold to Iran, raising questions about whether the US was alerting Gülenists to Halkbank. It wasn't until after the fallout took place that the accused Kemalist officers in Ergenekon and Balyoz were ordered to be released in 2014. The 2015-2016 violence and timing of the 2016 coup attempt as the US was deepening its support for the PKK in Syria was another sign of the Gülen movement's close relationship with the US.

MHP's influence started growing after the June 2015 election when the peace process with the PKK was ended, and MHP continued to benefit from the AKP-Gülen rift as the July 2016 post-coup purges created a vacuum that would be filled by nationalists, leading to a total security-driven foreign policy reorientation. The fact that Erdoğan never sought MHP's support until this point speaks volumes as Gülenists are at least viewed favorably in the West and don't have a party to take votes from AKP. MHP is the opposite, and also compromises Erdoğan's Islamism. In August 2016, Operation Euphrates Shield was launched against ISIS to contain the PKK, and Aleppo was viewed as being neglected by Turkey as it fell to Assad. Further anti-PKK operations in Afrin and northeast Syria, and heavy support for Azerbaijan in Karabakh point to a nationalist priority in Turkish foreign policy. MHP supported the presidential system in 2017 to concentrate power and limit other factions from growing within the state to challenge nationalists again.

Bernd 12/20/2020 (Sun) 12:14:21 [Preview] No.41700 del

AKP is beginning to view MHP as more of a competitor than an ally. Bahçeli forces Erdoğan further to the right, costing AKP its centrist voters to the opposition, while its right-leaning voters are increasingly favoring MHP. In the 2019 local election, MHP beat AKP in most provinces where the two fielded separate candidates. MHP's support clearly grew since the 2018 parliamentary election. Conversely, AKP's performance was much stronger than expected in the southeast.

AKP and HDP on their own are relatively compatible as both parties have mostly pious voters who believe themselves to have been oppressed under the socioethnic policies of Atatürk's republic. Erdoğan prior to 2015 was the least nationalist leader in Turkish history, and would recapture large numbers of Kurdish votes by ending his alliance with MHP, which may not be possible with nationalists now dominating the state.

Bülent Arınç recently called for the release of Osman Kavala and Selahattin Demirtaş, and soon resigned from the Presidential High Advisory Board after Bahçeli struck back. While Erdoğan publicly rejected the release of the two high-profile prisoners, some believe he's testing the waters to reset relations with Europe and find a new coalition partner.

The next CHP presidential candidate will gain the electoral support of many liberals and Kurds who in the past would have voted for AKP or other parties, while also preparing for a possible political realignment.

İmamoğlu and Yavaş are both in the spotlight as potential presidential candidates, and both are performing very well in polls against Erdoğan. If no AKP-MHP rift takes place, İmamoğlu will be CHP's presidential candidate. For economic reasons, he may not favor immediate cooperation with MHP; however, he's keeping his options open, especially if HDP fails to pass the 10% threshold. İmamoğlu has vocalized support for Turkish security interests important to MHP and even issued a respectful commemoration for Alparslan Türkeş. If tensions grow between AKP and MHP, Yavaş will be CHP's candidate, and Bahçeli will sabotage Erdoğan's presidential campaign in favor of the Yavaş-Akşener alliance.

Erdoğan gets called a dictator by clueless observers when a closer look reveals he has no more control over the state now than he did before the 2016 failed coup. Some five years since using “nationalist” as an insult, he's being held hostage by Bahçeli. Turkey has made real gains against the PKK, but at the expense of relations with the West, causing a weaker economy. MHP will not allow another peace process even if it costs Erdoğan the next presidential election. After all, Bahçeli could easily switch over to Yavaş and Akşener, two former MHP members.

tl;dr: AKP is being held hostage, and any steps in favor of realignment with liberals and Kurdish nationalists will end in Bahçeli dealing a decisive blow to the party.

Bernd 12/20/2020 (Sun) 14:21:03 [Preview] No.41701 del
https://youtube.com/watch?v=2fC7TGZirNQ [Embed]

the streetshitters are leading the way

Bernd 12/21/2020 (Mon) 14:32:23 [Preview] No.41720 del
Thanks for the overview

Bernd 12/21/2020 (Mon) 17:43:38 [Preview] No.41722 del
>>41696 >>41697 >>41698
>>41699 >>41700
Okay. So.
- AKP, CHP, MHP, HDP, and IYIP are in the National Assemply;
- Vatan Partisi isn't but has an interesting background;
- Gülenists aren't one party, but a movement which have influence in many parties;
- the Turkish Armed Forces have a great pull, due to it's prestige and power can influence everything, and potentially capable of reset the chess pieces with coup.
It wasn't very clear for me which parties represent what political ideologies or streams, but religious people tend to vote AKP, MHP, and HDP, while secularists CHP and the others. No?
Also while the state is secular, Islamist parties have large influence, even Erdo as president rides on the back of their support. Correct me here if I'm wrong.
The Kurdish minority is also large enough for parties seeking legislative role to want their support. AKP managed to get that last time, but it seems CHP is also gaining grounds.
Atatürk is generally respected by everyone, but the parties trying to exploit his popularity by explaining his work, beliefs, and character, differently to suit their own agendas.

What are the key issues in the country? I see a couple of dichotomies like: secularism vs. islamism, western orientation vs. eurasianism; but are these the issues which decides elections? How frequent phenomenon is just to voting against a person or a party, instead of actually supporting one for its program and ideology?

Bernd 12/21/2020 (Mon) 21:35:03 [Preview] No.41723 del
>It wasn't very clear for me which parties represent what political ideologies or streams, but religious people tend to vote AKP, MHP, and HDP, while secularists CHP and the others. No?
A bit more complicated than that.

Most AKP voters nowadays drink, seem like moralist but vote due to personality cult and grateful to erdoğan because before erdoğan they were pure fucks, now they are islamic bourgeuise. At BEST %20 of of this country is real deal islamist and they mainly vote for erdo, rest of the voters vote for the reasons I stated above.

MHP also conservative and rural but again they are not islamists only seem so due to populism and rural voterbase. These people dont have an issue with laicism.

HDP started to go for the lib left but still get votes of the ultra conservative kurds, they are the only group still practice girl circumstition though the practice marginalized. Half of the HDP voters are conservative in a way that make avarage AKP and MHP voter seem like hippies. Because.. ashirets, tribal clans still exist, they still do honor killings and stuff. Their neigbourhoods are no gone zone especially for women. But other half of the voters are hippies, lib lefts or just regular kurds.

As for CHP yes they are overwhelmingly secularists but bear in mind alevi fanatics exist, they still tend to not marry even when they stop believing alevism. How do I know? I got alevi gf and met with her relatives, their taboos are extremely hard to get rid of due to centuries of ottoman pressure. By no means they are fundies but I just wanted to make a reminder.

>Also while the state is secular
Afaik secular means something wordly. We are laicist, we seek to regulate the religion so schizo religious orders don't pop up like mushrooms after a rainfall. Believe me we need it. With laicism we try to secularize our people even today.

>he Kurdish minority is also large enough for parties seeking legislative role to want their support. AKP managed to get that last time, but it seems CHP is also gaining grounds.
Yeah correct.

>Atatürk is generally respected by everyone,
Except for islamists and seperatist kurds. Most people dont understand what he aimed for, his ideas but general respect is there.

>but the parties trying to exploit his popularity by explaining his work, beliefs, and character, differently to suit their own agendas.
You got it better than avarage Türk.

>What are the key issues in the country?
Well just like everyone we have de facto hawks and doves.

Secularists vs islamists

"Atlanticists" vs eurasianists vs "do whatever works"

nationalism vs islamism (the term ummah clashes with modern nations)

turkism vs kurdism

modernism vs traditionalism

state controlled economy (I mean the key things, not in a socialist way) vs privatization advocates

kemalism vs liberalism seperatist kurds and islamists loved to portray themselves as liberal progressives, I only wrote this one so dont suprise when you encounter one, liberalism is almost non existent in these lands

"TSK do your duty" guys vs "just vote" bros

Lastly I want to note about Ataturk, to understand him better you need to read his books. They are good because unlike, hitler, lenin, marxs books Atatürk wrote his books after he actually tried and successfully completed things. His books are anti thesis of pure ideology. Also let me remind you one of his books are de facto illegal in schools and party cencored. So don't assume after his death we didn't deviate, we went as far as partially cencoring and banning his books in schools. Fun fact, majority of the self proclaimed kemalists didn't even hear about this.

Bernd 12/21/2020 (Mon) 21:38:41 [Preview] No.41724 del
>they still tend to not marry
don't marry with people who don't descend from alevis.*

Bernd 12/22/2020 (Tue) 17:36:37 [Preview] No.41730 del
Okay, I think it got clearer.
>You got it better than avarage Türk.
We have similar when current parties try to appropriate the heritage of the 19th century reformers. But I bet all the countries are the same in this aspect.

Bernd 12/22/2020 (Tue) 17:42:37 [Preview] No.41731 del
He had a little problem to close down and secure the pincer from opening. It's nice again compliant offenders but even this guy they performed this exhibition had to raise his arm, and I bet most of the actual offenders won't be this helpful.

Bernd 12/22/2020 (Tue) 20:05:02 [Preview] No.41734 del
How do the controlled Syrian rebels factor in? Merely a way to cut costs on occupation forces in Syria, at the expense of letting thugs roam around shooting each other and harassing the population? Would there be interest in a purely TSK occupation of northern Syria, or even handing those territories to the Syrian government?

Bernd 12/22/2020 (Tue) 20:54:17 [Preview] No.41737 del
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hungary strong

Bernd 12/22/2020 (Tue) 21:04:29 [Preview] No.41739 del
I should have thought about the Syrian aspect. Good to see others aware.


Bernd 12/22/2020 (Tue) 23:08:24 [Preview] No.41740 del
Rio de Janeiro's mayor has been arrested nine days before his mandate ends. By the way the governor was also arrested some months ago, raising to 6 the number of governors imprisoned at some point.

Bernd 12/23/2020 (Wed) 12:33:46 [Preview] No.41747 del
>We have similar when current parties try to appropriate the heritage of the 19th century reformers. But I bet all the countries are the same in this aspect.
Of course but this is the norm now, even amongst the culturally higher ups.

People don't like when our soldiers die so we use syrian rebel proxies especially in idlib. Why we do it despite we can reach an agreement with Assad in exchange of eradicating kurdish seperatists in syria?

Because Erdoğan factor, he has personal bugurt when it comes to Sisi and Assad.

>Would there be interest in a purely TSK occupation of northern Syria

I don't know why anyone thinks that, for that we need allies to cover us diplomatically but we have none. Being a rogue state is not good even for a guy who only caring about his seat. So no, there wont be an permanent occupation. I think eventually we will hand it over in exchange of forbiding a terror state being created next to our borders.

Bernd 12/23/2020 (Wed) 16:25:12 [Preview] No.41750 del
>for that we need allies to cover us diplomatically but we have none.
This is just recent turn in the relations, but still Turkey is an important NATO member, so she still has US, and for long in the past she had strategic relations with Israel, which still can return. Well, this isn't a comment on the possibility of occupation, just on relations.

I have another question. You wrote that coastal population favors liberal views (well what counts there as liberal), while further inside Anatolia people accept more autocratic governing style. What is the root cause of this? Economical factors? Educational?
Any other political divisions in the country which shows itself in geography?

Bernd 12/23/2020 (Wed) 21:35:57 [Preview] No.41756 del
> but still Turkey is an important NATO member
We are wanted to be contained. Do you really think people who supports seperatists in my country will support a permanent land grab by us assuming we will actually do it? No chance. I know Syrian unity has been jeopardized but we need to support their unity to balance Israel.

>while further inside Anatolia people accept more autocratic governing style.
Coastal people would support a secularist nationalist coup they are not just not conservative. They are not liberals neither define themselves as so.

> What is the root cause of this? Economical factors? Educational?
Though you got it wrong, to some degree I get what you are saying. Coastal people save for the black sea. A few of the regions were cosmopolitan urban centers and after the Balkan War millions of Turks and muslim europeans had to migrate anatolia due to ethnic cleansings. Eventually urban centers periphery also developed. Anyway, these people were better educated and have better sense of nationality-patriotism compared to lethargic consarvatives of anatolia. Ottoman Empire by all means was a balkan centric state, we turn our eyes to depopulated, poor, desolate, dormant anatolia because we have nothing left. Nowadays almost half of the ethnic Turks are originating from European part of the Empire. Forget about schools there were barely enough masjid (small mosque) in anatolian villages.

Russian empire is usually seen as extremely backwards but even them developed education and farming industry much better than us.

Bernd 12/24/2020 (Thu) 19:32:20 [Preview] No.41768 del
>We are wanted to be contained.
The "no border changes ever" is a worldwide policy enforced by a wall of concernedly staring bureaucrats and only those are exempt who can rely on their own strength to execute the landgrab while shrugging off all the strict looks of said bureaucrats.

I was curious about regional distribution of voters, and what causes the differences.

Bernd 12/24/2020 (Thu) 20:52:12 [Preview] No.41771 del
>I was curious about regional distribution of voters, and what causes the differences.
They mostly settled down in coastal centers and their peripheries. I forgot to add that one.

>The "no border changes ever" is a worldwide policy enforced by a wall of concernedly staring bureaucrats
Which is why it won't happen. We are far from being that powerful.

Bernd 12/26/2020 (Sat) 16:45:58 [Preview] No.41792 del
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In the forming cabinet the minister of sports will be Hungarian. Not a key ministry unlike finance or something, but better than nothing.
The dude, Novák Károly Eduárd, is a Paralympic gold medalist in cycling, won in London 2012.

Bernd 12/26/2020 (Sat) 20:41:44 [Preview] No.41793 del
What a minister of sports does? What can he do?

Bernd 12/27/2020 (Sun) 15:01:19 [Preview] No.41801 del
"Those who can, do. Those who can't, govern. And those who can't govern, govern sports." :^)

Bernd 12/28/2020 (Mon) 18:17:38 [Preview] No.41818 del
That explains how Deutsch Tamás - our sport minister during the first Fidesz government, 1998-2002 - managed to get that seat.
Maybe I can have a shot.

Bernd 12/28/2020 (Mon) 22:22:01 [Preview] No.41832 del
>Maybe I can have a shot.

Go for it!
Rooting for you bernd :-DDDDDDD

Bernd 01/20/2021 (Wed) 13:42:52 [Preview] No.42159 del
It's over

Bernd 01/20/2021 (Wed) 14:02:09 [Preview] No.42160 del
So they don't have a helicopter pad at the white house they just have those three concrete circles for the wheels it seems, very clever if they can manage to land on it like that, it looks like maybe they can't quite though.

Bernd 01/20/2021 (Wed) 17:45:25 [Preview] No.42161 del
What's he gonna do now? Go back to his usual business whatever that may be? He has a new political persona and many people listens to him (never mind if it baloney or not).

Yeah, faggots destroying that lawn.

Bernd 01/20/2021 (Wed) 21:53:39 [Preview] No.42165 del
>What's he gonna do now? Go back to his usual business whatever that may be? He has a new political persona and many people listens to him (never mind if it baloney or not).
He loves attention so he won't get a quiet retirement. Sadly he can't post funny stuff on social media anymore. His bold writing style will never be forgotten.

Bernd 01/21/2021 (Thu) 18:00:25 [Preview] No.42171 del
Now in motion.

How he's gonna keep in touch with his fanbase?
I think the alternatives, Gab, Parler, Telegram are under, hmm let's call it attack in the name of simplicity and straightforwardness.

Bernd 01/21/2021 (Thu) 18:13:53 [Preview] No.42172 del
Also the people on these platforms (any maybe even the platforms themselves) got labeled as nazi or some such. I'm sure he does not want that label to himself.
His kids too are in the center of attention.

Bernd 01/26/2021 (Tue) 09:22:47 [Preview] No.42275 del

Interesting that they still use their old Sea King helicopter for presidential main transport, even when they had several replacements for it.

Bernd 01/26/2021 (Tue) 09:38:58 [Preview] No.42277 del
(9.68 MB 4191x3143 Osprey 001.jpg)
They should use an Osprey so the President crashes and dies.

Bernd 01/27/2021 (Wed) 16:43:08 [Preview] No.42289 del
Well, Trump is the old president. He only gets the old vehicle.

Bernd 01/28/2021 (Thu) 12:02:51 [Preview] No.42296 del
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China implemented a law that enables Chinese coast guards to fire on foreign vessels in what they claim are their waters.

I can't see this ending badly.

Bernd 01/29/2021 (Fri) 00:03:35 [Preview] No.42313 del
An armed conflict soon, I can imagine

Bernd 01/30/2021 (Sat) 15:20:47 [Preview] No.42343 del
So evil LMAO. I guess the US should send more carrier fleets to the other side of the pacific, taking a stroll in the China Sea, running them right through the mainland-island straits, why not. I can't see that ending badly.

Hopefully china can avoid a confrontation. But as things are going I suppose the empire might be getting increasingly restless and reckless, seeing how china continue to prosper and the west self-destructs, it may be that they will in fact want to provoke one eventually. Unfortunately, the signs coming from the new US administration are not exactly encouraging.

Bernd 01/30/2021 (Sat) 15:35:59 [Preview] No.42345 del
(1.44 MB 1610x808 ZZC 0424.png)
They already did send a carrier strike force to the region but that was due to increased Communist incursions into the airspace of real China. The Law takes affect on Monday, the strike force will still be in the region. Additionally, even Japan is getting agitated now. The Senkaku islands fall within China's claims and there is talk of now militarising them. China is behaving quite illogically, this new law is only going to further militarise every state with claims and waters within the nine dash line. This on top of already antagonising Australia and India. The US barely needs to get involved at this point.

Bernd 01/31/2021 (Sun) 03:50:44 [Preview] No.42351 del
what is china doing....

do they want war?...

Bernd 01/31/2021 (Sun) 05:47:58 [Preview] No.42354 del
Maybe they're just bored from the months of being on lockdown and are doing this to get people's attention.

Bernd 02/03/2021 (Wed) 13:52:04 [Preview] No.42398 del
AKP wants to change constitution, which they need %67 votes of the parliment and they dont have it, even with the given alliance with MHP. Most likely they will use the need of new constitution as an excuse for an early election.

Why would they want it, you might ask.


reassure trust in the eyes of London banks

prove to Biden and EU that he is still the peoples choice

to reverse the discontent inside AKP

secure another term before it is too late. If this election doesn’t happen there will be mass exodus to Gelecek(ex gülenist conservative) and Deva (supposedly liberal conservatives that are playing for the Gen Z) in 2022. It is impossible for AKP to survive until 2023


to get rid of MHP sucking AKP’s power turning erdogan into a lame duck. Cumhur Alliance will be disbanded in case of an early election because both sides want more power. Also AKP wants to make semi-reforms, release Demirtaş, get close with west while MHP wants full autocracy and an Eurasian alliance.


But without MHP, AKP can't even cheat in the elections, it's almost certain if give MHP middle finger, they will lose. They want to monkey branch I get that but current situation is really against them. Lately MHP pull out a 4D chess move about giving a speech about closing HDP, if AKP strictly opposes that MHP get out of the situation even stronger.

Bernd 02/03/2021 (Wed) 13:59:34 [Preview] No.42399 del
What are they changing about the constitution? Are they making Sultans hereditary?

Bernd 02/03/2021 (Wed) 14:13:40 [Preview] No.42400 del
Excuse for new election. "I just need a new constitution, the current system dont let me pull a 4D chess manouver, I totally have a brilliant idea to save you guys"

That was basically the argument for new presidental system, people has fallen for it and gave Erdog dictatorial powers, but right now it worked against AKP interests, mostly worked for MHP's interests and people are pissed. AKP support is all time low since 2002.

Bernd 02/03/2021 (Wed) 16:31:37 [Preview] No.42403 del
Are they confident enough that they can win an election right now? Til 2022 much can change, they could be a better position than now. If they believe there's only downwards from now, they must be sure a 2/3 majority is unreachable, but are they sure an at least 50% + 1 seat is a realistic goal?
I assume as head of state, Erdogan can call for a new election anytime he wants it.

Bernd 02/03/2021 (Wed) 23:32:32 [Preview] No.42408 del
>Are they confident enough that they can win an election right now?

>Til 2022 much can change, they could be a better position than now.
Maybe but it is unlikely and Erdo has already smashed the panicked button.

> but are they sure an at least 50% + 1 seat

Not seat but popular vote. Unless you take %50+1 of the votes say bye bye to your presidental throne, ahem I mean seat.

>I assume as head of state, Erdogan can call for a new election anytime he wants it.
Yes he can but parliment can also do that with %60 majority. But the parliment thing seems impossible.

Bernd 02/04/2021 (Thu) 05:56:09 [Preview] No.42416 del
What with happen to the average person living in Turkey if AKP follows through on the constitution change?

Bernd 02/04/2021 (Thu) 18:28:45 [Preview] No.42435 del
Civil war.

Bernd 02/04/2021 (Thu) 20:37:22 [Preview] No.42438 del
What's the outcome of AKP getting bad results but not MHP? And what if both of them don't win a lot of votes?

Bernd 02/05/2021 (Fri) 12:54:28 [Preview] No.42452 del
MHP would try to switch sides as they did before. They only buddied up Erdo because they manage to control Erdo with ~%10 of the votes. They keep him in check enough to not let him cave in to USA and HDP again. Not to mention they solidifed their positions in bureaucracy. There is absolutely no reason for MHP go with the sinking ship. They would try to ally with CHP-İYİP but what matters now is who is the president. You don't need majority of the parliment to rule unopposed anymore, if your president candidate takes %50+1 of the popular rule, you're the new absolute monarch president.

Bernd 02/05/2021 (Fri) 12:54:58 [Preview] No.42453 del
>popular rule,
popular vote

Bernd 02/05/2021 (Fri) 19:08:23 [Preview] No.42458 del
It's hard to imagine in Turkey something would break out like in Libya or Syria. From here the country seems more stable than that. I can see brief clashes, I remember somewhat the last coup attempt (in 2016 me thinks), but even that didn't felt that serious. I read lots and lots of people were arrested.

So MHP has options to form coalitions.

Bernd 02/07/2021 (Sun) 00:22:14 [Preview] No.42475 del
Are you the regular Turkeybernd we always get?

Regardless, hope it doesn't come to that?

Bernd 02/07/2021 (Sun) 15:33:57 [Preview] No.42493 del
Yeah, since Erdo wants to be sure I don't think he will force others hand. He always guarantees his safety before taking a step, too paranoid.

>So MHP has options to form coalitions.
Yes but they wont change sides until their influence somehow dwindled. They are more pragmatic rather than being true idealistic nationalists. MHP knows the opposition might need them in future but the opposition does not know that. They need insiders from bureaucracy if they want a change without bloodshed.

Here is our parliments situation, you need 360 congressman to make referandum about constitutional change. Guess what xD MHP forced some HDP members so they wont able to reach the number, at this situation even if AKP tried hard to simp for HDP, the numbers are not enough, thanks to MHP 4D chess. So here is the situation AKP+MHP is not enough to get the number, neither AKP+HDP. If Erdoğan makes a constitution, he will probably needs to get support İYİ party but why would they do that is beyond me. Maybe they will prepeare for soft transition where Erdo saves his ass, leaves the government to İYİ+MHP(??) and leaves his buddies for lynches so people get the blood they want?

Yes I am.

Bernd 02/07/2021 (Sun) 15:57:44 [Preview] No.42494 del
>MHP forced some HDP members

MHP jailed some HDP parliment members*

**Cant reformat as I'm unable to delete the post*

Bernd 02/11/2021 (Thu) 23:31:18 [Preview] No.42555 del
>Yes I am.

Welcome back bernd. I thought you were gone forever

Bernd 03/11/2021 (Thu) 00:26:19 [Preview] No.42864 del
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The Supreme Court ruled Lula's case was outside of judge Moro's jurisdiction and therefore he can run for President next year. It did not, however, made any ruling on whether he's guilty or innocent.

Bernd 03/11/2021 (Thu) 07:25:05 [Preview] No.42865 del
Judicial system in Brazil is all about rehabilitation, eh? No judgement that generates anxiety, just acceptance and helping hand to become good, honest president, as he was inspired to be before his momentary weakness and minor slip.

Bernd 03/11/2021 (Thu) 19:52:38 [Preview] No.42870 del
>It did not, however, made any ruling on whether he's guilty or innocent.
Hmm. Does that mean process has to be repeated?

Bernd 03/13/2021 (Sat) 10:35:15 [Preview] No.42889 del
>become good, honest president
Not sure about the first two but the last part might well happen, Bolsonaro has suffered too much political attrition, only a last minute burst of national prosperity might save him.

More or less, I raised the hypothesis to a Law student a couple years ago and that's what he said would have to happen.

The funniest thing about this case is that years before some of Lula's properties (beachside triplex apartment and ranch) came into criminal investigation they were plainly mentioned in the media as belonging to him, and only later did their connection become controversial.

Bernd 03/13/2021 (Sat) 21:03:05 [Preview] No.42898 del
>The funniest thing about this case is that years before some of Lula's properties (beachside triplex apartment and ranch) came into criminal investigation they were plainly mentioned in the media as belonging to him, and only later did their connection become controversial.
Yeah, I can imagine.
Can't name a specific case myself right now but sounds exactly like I have heard such cases on the news here myself before.

Bernd 04/28/2021 (Wed) 18:15:00 [Preview] No.43423 del
Here >>43352 were these questions.
>Why were there so many political movements a few years ago compared to now? What changed?
>And should bernds perhaps start a political movement of their own in the future?
Good topic.
I think back then political activism was more serious. For example people weren't just voters but frequently members of parties, which had giant memberships. Like NSDAP had membership in the millions, the German communists similarly. And one way was organizing people is creating movements, they actively did stuff together strengthening the bond between the members, made their voice heard, made changes, shaping their environment, helped each other. Also they clashed with other movements, in physical confrontations. They were defensive organizations as well.
Sometimes even today movements are created. On the Hungary there was the Magyar Gárda for example for the Jobbik (but was banned). But the Fidesz also made one, more "civil", less militaristic (I think these ain't exist anymore because they don't need them).
I think in the US, this Q thing also such. But I bet in the US they have many more, much smaller.
People are getting atomized, alienated, separated. They don't trust, and they don't even have the initiative spirit to do something by themselves. Especially not something that is "dangerous". They might sperg out about daily politics in the comment section on youtube, or on facebook, but beyond that...
I dunno.

A Bernd political movement, or any political movement, just made by a Bernd?

Bernd 04/28/2021 (Wed) 23:10:19 [Preview] No.43433 del
A vanguard party of Bernds that will lead the masses to a revolution.

Bernd 05/05/2021 (Wed) 18:45:55 [Preview] No.43511 del
Meanwhile on the Small Island the voters gonna go to the urns to urnate tomorrow.
Legislative elections in Scotland. The ruling Scottish National Party is expected to win. Judging by the polls published on Politico there won't be any major changes compared to 2016.
The new party of Alba is expected to get ~5 seats.
The census is drawn at the age of 16, I guess considering an average voter's cluelessness, and an 18 yo voter's too, it doesn't matter much if younger teenagers can cast ballots.
More curiously foreigners can vote too, those who "legally" live in Scotland, whatever that means. Legally living foreigners theoretically could hack Scottish elections. That would be a hoot.

Bernd's fist is steel fist, it strikes where it's needed.

Bernd 05/05/2021 (Wed) 19:02:39 [Preview] No.43512 del
Wales also holds legislative election.
Here too, 16 year olds can vote, I guess this must be a UK thing.
Big loser is the UKIP, the fun party is the Abolish, which seeks to abolish the Senedd Cymru, the legislative body itself.

Londoners are electing mayor.
Labor or Tory is the question, but essentially part and parcel guy is expected to win again. His main opponent is a negro who is keen on reducing "knife crime".
This election should have took place last year, but was postponed due to corona.

Bernd 05/06/2021 (Thu) 08:13:50 [Preview] No.43521 del
Thinking maybe the age is low because they have more colored and muslim youth. Another way of gerrymandering or whatever.

Bernd 05/29/2021 (Sat) 15:56:30 [Preview] No.43817 del
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Syria had presidential election a couple of days ago. Turnout was 78%.
1. Bashar Assad 95.1% - Arab Socialist Ba'ath Party - Syria Region
2. Mahmoud Ahmad Marei 3,1% - Democratic Arab Socialist Union
3. Abdullah Sallum Abdullah 1,5% - Socialist Unionist Party

It seems the parties themselves are pretty similar, all revolve around Arab socialism and Arab nationalism.
I dunno how much this can be called a free election, but who else is in the country to offer an alternative?
In some countries Syrian expats/refugees/migrants/whoevers could vote via the present Embassies, in other countries these Embassies were closed some time ago, so no voting there. I think it's safe to Assume that those countries don't have Embassies anymore which took in large amount of Syrians since 2015.

Bernd 05/29/2021 (Sat) 16:00:31 [Preview] No.43818 del
I dunno how reliable this list is:

Bernd 05/29/2021 (Sat) 16:26:57 [Preview] No.43819 del
>It seems the parties themselves are pretty similar, all revolve around Arab socialism and Arab nationalism.
>I dunno how much this can be called a free election, but who else is in the country to offer an alternative?

That's the case in Australia too, we have liberal and labour.

Bernd 05/29/2021 (Sat) 19:42:06 [Preview] No.43820 del
My problem here is parties turning into not standing for anything, just governing party doing things and opposition finds flaws on them in a way or another and say something different. No matter of ideology, or principles.
And then the issue with democracies that Westerners appropriated it saying it's only democracy is liberal democracy. And suddenly the talk was about illiberal democracies, and how Orbán built one, but if the opposition would came to power would that still be illiberal? Or this just changes with the wind? And not just Westerners labeled, but even Orbán had a nod at one point, a half sentence about liberal democracies and things can be done otherwise. Just an addition to empty words, nonexistent definitions, not making a stand, and a whole lotta confusion.

In Syria I assume the war was fought in political opponents, and one (many) side was defeated, and only one left on the ring. I don't believe the election happened in the rebel occupied regions, like Idlib, so essentially voters could picked from Assad and whoever was on his side, or was too insignificant to become rebel.

Bernd 05/30/2021 (Sun) 02:59:26 [Preview] No.43821 del
I think that is a part of democracy in general, it seems to always happen that the opposition party will claim to not do x thing that the ruling party is doing then they get voted in and still do it anyway.

It also often seems that it's not so much that a party stands for something and so takes a stance based on that but that a party is supported by certain interests and so takes a stance based on that. A good example would be here in Australia, you have the liberals that are supported by mining companies and other such interests so take actions based on that and the labour party that is supported by labour unions and so takes action based on that, even when it goes against what they actually want and it's actually causing factionalism in both parties with some in both parties wanting to focus on climate change but being prevented by the respective factions(labour unions don't want mines to close because it will get rid of many high paying low skilled jobs and of course mining companies don't want them to close for the obvious reason).

Bernd 05/30/2021 (Sun) 07:31:18 [Preview] No.43823 del
Parties do their job when they represent interests, because that's how parties become existence, that's their purpose.
When Athens fought against Persia, and they had to decide how, two parties emerged. One was formed by the landowners, those who lived from the rural lands, from gardens and herds, their interest was a strong army to field and stop the Persians before they plunder, burn, and butcher everything. The other was made by the craftsmen and traders, who worked in the city, who moved the goods with ships and sold them on far away lands, they wanted a strong navy that could face the Persians and prevent them from cutting the sea lanes. They faced a problem which they offered different solutions to, based on their differing interests. If they had a problem which threatened the interests the same, I'm sure they could come up with a solution together that would benefited everyone.
In your example the Labour and the Liberals found a common ground not wanting to close the mines, but some/many in those parties feels that isn't in their best interest so this leads to struggle within the parties. This is the problem of large "reservoir" parties that they gather many smaller groups with different interests and views.
Maybe parties should be more fluent, changing, volatile, always breaking up and reforming, to really represent the people behind them. But the tendency is that we have politicians only living from that business, who promote their own brand, which should be recognizable. Maybe never changing too - else they could be called hypocrites and turncoats, who change their mind at every two steps - or at least with the illusion of consistency.

cont. Bernd 05/30/2021 (Sun) 07:46:30 [Preview] No.43824 del
Parties existed through the ages, they were there in feudalism too, the aristocracy, nobility, priesthood were divided along their own agenda, interests, and family ties.
I think the rising political ideologies, first with the Big Three (what I always say, Liberalism, Socialism, Nationalism), gave lasting lines to follow, relatively constant views on how to solve problems. But they have the problem that these ideas can go against interests, or even common sense. Or the other way around people can go against principles which they should follow based on their ideological preference (like some liberals wanting to restrict freedom of speech).
The Big Three is just not enough, and now myriad of tiny ideologies exist with their own particularities.
And there's ofc, the dichotomies, left-right, or conservative-progressive, also creating divisions, and raising the expectation from parties to follow such "values".
And lastly populism also makes things blurry and from what I can tell it isn't really about anything, just to "win as much people for our party as we can" and what they say changes with the wind. And this is why it sometimes used as a nicer way of saying demagoguery.

Bernd 06/06/2021 (Sun) 14:56:24 [Preview] No.43873 del
New phenomenon appeared in the politics of Hungary - maybe it's a start of a new practice -, the opposition parties are preparing for primary elections.
No dominant party can challenge the Fidesz's rule, so the opposition have to resort to cooperation no matter what ideology they (claim to) represent. But they have to make dealings: who will be their candidate for the position of Prime Minister? They want to decide this with the primaries.
I also suspect this is a way for them to appear relevant in the media, this pandemic really shot down every other topic than criticizing the government from all the possible angles how they aren't handling the situation well. So they're making big noise of this.
I really don't wanna go through who is who right now, I just wanted to write something. Maybe tomorrow.
The thing will done by October 23.

Bernd 06/06/2021 (Sun) 16:55:55 [Preview] No.43879 del
The issue is that who they are actually representing and who they claim to represent are so different. These actions don't benefit the vast majority of voters nor are they in the interests of the majority of voters. They just make things up about how it will be good for the nation which doesn't stand up for scrutiny and even people in government institutions speak out about it(this is happening with the gas led recovery, energy institutions, state governments and economists are saying it's ludicrous. Who suggested a gas led Recovery? Well the committee for Covid recovery was made up of people who stood to directly benefit from gas).

At least aristocratic parties did not pretend they were representing the people, democracy is a farce.

Bernd 06/06/2021 (Sun) 19:27:28 [Preview] No.43886 del
Yeah, representing the interests of just a thin group of people is a general problem.
I dunno how it goes elsewhere but here it's a problem that representatives cannot be called back (easily or at all) if they ain't doing what their voters wanted from them when they were elected. This is part of the problem. If in a constituency peeps could say "hey we saw you ain't voting in the legislation how we want you to, you are done, we send someone else" it might be a bit better.
On the other hand here representatives can gain seats via party lists without them having to compete in the constituencies. Whom would recall them?

Bernd 06/18/2021 (Fri) 07:57:58 [Preview] No.44045 del
Political activism demanded way more involvement back then, but more risks also. Even mortal risk. Just putting a message out there meant actually going out to the streets and meeting places, talk to people, argue with them. Quite a good description is what Hitler gave in the Mein Kampf how he got into politics, as young men. Visiting the Austrian legislation, arguing with workers, etc. For the violent nature of the movements the NSDAP is also a great example.
Another approach to politics was Szálasi's. He was part of the system, and he did a "tour" in the country, see how the people lived, he talked to them, and wrote a study describing their poverty and hardships. Then he passed this study upstairs into one of the ministry's where it went ignored. After that he started his Arrow Cross Party, and Hungarist movement, he got jailed as a radical, a potential left-wing radical I think. The war was turbulent times ofc, so that we can consider uncommon circumstances. After it he was executed by the communists (well I think we still had Republic, and not People's Republic, so was executed by "democratic" forces).
Communist movements were also tough since the beginning. The strikes frequently meant violent clashes, with police, or other political groups. And then by the end of WWI they sparked the revolutions and violence.

Bernd 06/20/2021 (Sun) 08:26:12 [Preview] No.44071 del
What Bernd think of terrorism. Or moar liek "terrorism", I would rather call it. And this is the aspect I'm asking Bernd's opinion.
These days they label acts of violence terrorism, these lone gunmen doing attacks on civilian targets, school, mall, movie theater, mosque shooters and such, these "domestic terrorists".
My problem is with the categorization, the label of terrorism. Generally terrorists apply overwhelming fear (terror) to get what they want. They don't have to be violent per se, but classical terrorist organizations do violent things. Elected governments also can be terrorists by simply applying fear onto the population, scare them with some looming threat to make them do something, or make them agree with something, enacting a law or some such.
But these guys, these shooters, aren't force people to do anything, just go out and try to kill people. They don't and can't repeat their acts, and declare "we're going to go on until you give in". I'm not even sure anyone gets really scared. It rather seems their acts used by govts. to scare people into agreeing to restrictions.

Bernd 07/01/2021 (Thu) 06:51:31 [Preview] No.44261 del
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So Slovenia is led by a party with similar outlines as Fidesz. No wonder they supported our govt against Brussels in the question of our new child protection law. Although I remember when the migrant crisis came, Slovenia took similar stance to ours. Since then the path of the two leadership converged more perhaps.

Bernd 07/01/2021 (Thu) 08:37:51 [Preview] No.44262 del
SDS has been working hard to get a strong alliance with Fidesz. I recall that for the last elections, they actually had their promotion videos produced in Hungary, and I think they even managed to get Orbán to guest one of their pre election conferences.

Bernd 07/02/2021 (Fri) 12:33:28 [Preview] No.44271 del
>But these guys, these shooters, aren't force people to do anything, just go out and try to kill people

Terrorist is just a term like "bad guy" now. Classic wars in Post-WW2 world are forbidden "on paper", so most of conflicts in last 50 years are so-called military operations, where word "terrorist" became synonym of enemy combatant. It is easy to label everyone now as terrorist, because common person would easily understand that.

Or "freedom fighter" if it is good guy, but in case of domestic terrorism freedom is already achieved, so only terrorists are against it.

Bernd 07/03/2021 (Sat) 06:58:52 [Preview] No.44283 del
Orbán became a weird gravitational center around here. And the more they demonize him in the Western media, the more they blow scandals from barely nothing he becomes more and more relevant. This makes Hungary relevant too - geopolitically the Carpathian basin is at the meeting point of three way road west-east-south it's the Mediterranean of Europe... kek so I believe there are people who are calculating with that, but now on paper too and in the minds of Euroepeons.

Another empty phrase born. Can be combined with fascist freely.

Bernd 07/21/2021 (Wed) 00:09:43 [Preview] No.44492 del
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The possibly crypto-Maoist candidate won the Peruvian presidential election by a narrow margin.

Bernd 07/21/2021 (Wed) 06:54:36 [Preview] No.44495 del
How his crypto-Maoism manifests?
How this will influence South Am. relations?

Bernd 07/21/2021 (Wed) 08:48:52 [Preview] No.44497 del
>possibly crypto-Maoist
Dude, he's pretty much an ethnonationalist. But since he's "brown" everyone thinks this makes him a leftist and probably Maoist as well.

Bernd 07/21/2021 (Wed) 08:53:10 [Preview] No.44498 del
In fact, his positions make him quite close to PiS in Poland – are they crypto-Maoists too?

Bernd 07/21/2021 (Wed) 10:54:58 [Preview] No.44500 del
>How his crypto-Maoism manifests?
He's possibly tied to the Shining Path.
>How this will influence South Am. relations?
Not much immediately but Peru should shift closer to the Venezuelan side.

>PERÚ LIBRE es un partido de izquierda socialista, marxista-leninista-mariateguista.
Note they write this comparing themselves to two other organizations, which they describe as social democrats.

But, of course, precisely because he's brown he's liable to being romanticized by Europeans. His party might be self-proclaimed Marxist-Leninist but it isn't leftist? Maybe they're center-right Marxist-Leninists or something.
A moderate government is likely but if he feels powerful enough a hard turn to the left is not out of the question.

Bernd 07/21/2021 (Wed) 16:26:38 [Preview] No.44503 del
Yeah his party does have the history and connection to Marxist-Leninist or Maoist movements. But so did Italian Fascists – a lot of them came from ex-Marxists who changed their views during WW1.
Oddly enough all one can gather from this is that, to people, self-labels and historical alignment matters more when assigning sides than actual positions. PiS is right wing because they opposed Soviet Union, Pedro Castillo is left wing because he is opposed to American stooges, the Fujimoris – both now and through ties to the Shining Path.

Bernd 07/21/2021 (Wed) 17:18:03 [Preview] No.44505 del
It's not the same party in Poland and Peru with different labels, they're completely distinct political forces which by historical accident converged into similar programmes at the same time. The Peruvians adopted their programme by evaluating the current situation in light of Marxism-Leninism, unlike the Poles. As the years pass and things change they'll think of something else, it'll still be in light of their leftist theoretical background but not necessarily similar to what their erstwhile Polish counterpart now thinks. Given regional precedents a hard leftward push is a perfectly plausible course of action for a party like that to take.

Bernd 07/21/2021 (Wed) 20:04:22 [Preview] No.44508 del
I'm reading on the bloke's Wiki page that he tried to calm foreign businesses that won't be any nationalization of their assets. How real is the possibility of that these days? It is really plausible that someone waltz in and say, hey now your shit is state property from now on?

Bernd 07/21/2021 (Wed) 21:46:08 [Preview] No.44511 del
>How real is the possibility of that these days? It is really plausible that someone waltz in and say, hey now your shit is state property from now on?
Not immediately, he'd first had to overcome opposition in Congress and the courts. One way to speed up that process is to call a Constituent Assembly, which is exactly what he intends to do, though he won't necessarily use it for that.

Bernd 07/22/2021 (Thu) 19:34:05 [Preview] No.44513 del
Taking positions compared to the other parties in the country matters too.
Nowadays however claiming which school of ideology we subscribe and taking positions in matters at hand are different things. Theory and practice.
The issues countries face in our day and age also aren't the same which gave birth to the classical ideologies, and also the possibilities are narrowed down where solutions could be looked for, actions to pick.
Plus the divide between the parties or the existence of the parties feels like a joke. Faux-opponents, flaring up the emotions of the voters, while the politicians joke around with each other and telling anecdotes at the buffet of the parliament building during brakes.

Bernd 07/31/2021 (Sat) 05:04:06 [Preview] No.44624 del
Marxism-Leninism is a fringe belief and drives away voters in the average democracy. Castillo could've had a much less narrow margin if he had ditched his far left label. For his party to cling on to it despite this, it must have a strong internal faction opposed to a change in label.
Then the campaign promises themselves are already part of the label, rather than a guarantee that actual governance will be as described. Regional precedent is that a very left-wing turn is an option, and this might be more likely for a party already embracing a far left self-description.

Bernd 09/13/2021 (Mon) 20:57:19 [Preview] No.44990 del
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Federal Election in Canadia is incoming, on the 20th.
Since 2019 Trudeau and his party governs from a minority position, while they gained the most seats, they did not get the majority of them. Back in August Trudeau requested the dissolution of the parliament and called for snap election. I dunno why. He got some flame for slow evacuation from Afghanistan or some such and they don't want to hold election amid pandemic, but I'm not sure if any of these have anything to do with the decision.

Five main parties are running for 338 seats (170 is needed for majority). Here they are with their leaders:
Liberal - Metrosexual Limpwristed Yesperson - 2019 won the most seats, they liberal (socialists)
Conservative - Drunk Irishman - 2019 won the most votes, they conservatives (liberals)
Bloc Québécois - Boring Frenchman - they nationalist (socialists)
New Democratic - Triple-Minority Turbanman - they uh, socialists (socialists)
Green - Strong Jewish African-Canadian Womanperson - green (is this a valid political ideology now? what's Bernd opinion on this?)

Good luck and God Save the Queen.

No photo of Trudeau, we know him by now me thinks.

Bernd 09/13/2021 (Mon) 20:59:07 [Preview] No.44991 del
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Fugg, O'Toole's pic had some errors did not upload.

Bernd 09/14/2021 (Tue) 07:42:17 [Preview] No.44992 del
Scraped couple of articles. It seems these are the main issues the discourse is centered around in Canada:
1. national debt, economic recovery - due to pandemic "management" they racked up record amount of debt (by far this is the most important question)
2. vaccine mandates - Libs for, Cons against
3. childcare - many women became unemployed due to covid, Libs promising money to spend, Cons offer tax credits to pay daycare I don't get it, if mom is at home unemployed how she cannot babysit her own kid?, I mean yeah give them money or give tax cut (and not "tax credit") to their men, sure, but stay home but put the kid in daycare that's utter idiotism. Raise your children people!
4. expensive housing
5. climate change - forest fires and drought - Libs want emission cuts, Cons are oil and gas advocates
6. rebuilding healthcare system
7. UBI
8. Indigenous reconciliation

Bernd 09/14/2021 (Tue) 22:47:15 [Preview] No.44993 del
>1. national debt, economic recovery - due to pandemic "management" they racked up record amount of debt (by far this is the most important question)
The budget will balance itself.

Bernd 09/15/2021 (Wed) 07:02:38 [Preview] No.44994 del
As global economy stabilizes Canadian economy will too. I don't think national economies matter at all at this point.

Bernd 09/15/2021 (Wed) 09:20:27 [Preview] No.44995 del
>green (is this a valid political ideology now?
they green (globohomo (neoliberal (trotkyists)))

Bernd 09/15/2021 (Wed) 21:49:51 [Preview] No.44997 del
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>green (is this a valid political ideology now? what's Bernd opinion on this?)

Even Russia has greens, although they are literally nothing. They have funny ads though (we expecting parliament elections soon too).

Considering ideology, it is always about appealing to ecology without sane solutions to real ecological problems. Mostly some idealistic shit about emissions, evil meat-eaters and "equality" instead of realistic work against industrial waste, toxic agricultural practices and unnecessary extensive plastic usage. Meme-parties to grab scared commoner votes.

Bernd 09/16/2021 (Thu) 08:03:09 [Preview] No.45002 del
Hmm. Fresh air, clean environment, green nature, singing birds, comfy weather (not too hot in the summer, abundant snow in winter)... what's not to like? So all our parties likes to dabble in this, although two try to appropriate the issue for themselves, but they just started as a liberal party to stand into the gap caused by the fall of our previous liberal party (and the new party split in two), so I can't really take them seriously in that question (either).

Are Russian greens in the Duma? What are their chances?
Also sounds like they are livelihood politicians who found a niche they can earn money with.

Bernd 09/16/2021 (Thu) 08:47:23 [Preview] No.45003 del
We have Greens here too, they are very left leaning to the point that people sometimes call them watermelons(green on the outside, red on the inside). Currently they have 9 seats in the upper house and 1 in the lower house, plus they actually have a coalition state government in ACT with the Labour party. So they are a reasonably sized party.

Bernd 09/16/2021 (Thu) 19:51:08 [Preview] No.45017 del
>Are Russian greens in the Duma? What are their chances?

Not in Duma, and no chances at all. Although Russia really has serious ecological issues that needs to address, this is not real party, but a meme.

Bernd 09/20/2021 (Mon) 20:53:38 [Preview] No.45068 del
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So, elections happened. Votes didn't counted completely yet, but there are no surprises - same people is almost same proportions are here again. Difference between parties is negligible, except commies like to be contrarian when they vote doesn't matter, and "liberal"-"democrats" sometimes louder than others.

In Moscow and few regions remote internet voting was an options. Constitution referendum in 2020 had experimental "electronic voting", current one was not even experimental. But for some reason electronic vote results were delayed for day, officials said it is about "recalculating the blockchain" and "counting those who changed their vote" (it was allowed for voter for some reasons). That was unexpected because electronic vote in 2020 had results almost immediately. But when results finally happened, it was very fun - these votes completely overhauled previous results. Half of single-seats (vote for person, not party) in Moscow were won by non-government candidates after "paper" part of voting, but they all suddenly lost after electronic part.
For some unknown reason electronic votes didn't follow same proportion like classic ones, sometimes with 10-20% difference. Three last images display this graphically, red ones are remote votes and were calculated only recently.

Such amazing coincidence indeed.

Bernd 09/20/2021 (Mon) 21:59:55 [Preview] No.45070 del
The only interesting thing about blockchain-based votes is that, with a public chain one can cryptographically check each and every individual vote. Doesn't mean votes can't be tampered with (they could be reassigned or fraudulent votes could be injected), but theoretically the public could check it. And not just personally but for example multiple third-parties could through an internet interface provide a "validation" service for the public and aggregate the results
Good: seeing liberasts crushed
Bad: ldpr shrinking, scum like yabloko getting 750k is still too much

Bernd 09/20/2021 (Mon) 23:06:27 [Preview] No.45071 del
>The only interesting thing about blockchain-based votes is that, with a public chain one can cryptographically check each and every individual vote.

Yes. But problem that blockchain isn't public, and owners can replace it with different one if they want to publish it. Proving something from modified blockchain is pretty hard thing if it is modified properly, especially considering that personal data must remain anonymous.

Technically there is no real way to make elections transparent with remote electronic vote, because there are multiple ways to tamper the data. If voting chain is controlled by one actor, there always a possibility to modify the results and external observer wouldn't prove it with evidence (excluding internal info from system that may be leaked, but this is different story). Having second independent entity that may check votes from very start also isn't possible by political reasons too (no one would allow completely separate entity to mess with voting process).

Maybe phasing out anonymous vote may help to identify some cheating, but this way has pretty bad outcomes in different fields.

>a "validation" service for the public and aggregate the results

Problem that even if person claims that his vote was changed, there is no hard proofs. Anyone can claim that he's voted for different party, but what evidence he can provide? So it may be interesting to see if your vote is same as you remember, but court wouldn't listen. Even recordings of voting is not a proof now, and also breaks anonymous nature of elections.

>Bad: ldpr shrinking, scum like yabloko getting 750k is still too much

LDPR is basically an ER nowadays. They vote always as ER (and government). Times when their party was somewhat independent are gone. Zhirinovsky is pretty fun person and sometimes says rational things, but their parliament voting policies are nowhere near to his public image. He is also old and not that energetic anymore, and without him it is mostly party of nonames. It is hard to imagine how they will act when he'll gone.

Yabloko is also already pro-goverment party contrary to it's public image. Yavlinsky gets money from some government-related entities, and their opposition claims are mild (i.e. they mostly not really oppose to anything). Considering them as something "bad" is too serious - they are empty shell. Their times are gone like in case with LDPR.

Russian government actually very good in politics, because it completely cleaned political field from any real and serious opposition that may be represented at elections. Parties are tamed, and non-party opposition are incompetent idiots.

Bernd 09/21/2021 (Tue) 00:11:18 [Preview] No.45072 del
>But problem that blockchain isn't public, and owners can replace it with different one if they want to publish it.
Hm. Well, I don't know how they implemented the system. I just assumed that the votes (blocks) were cryptographically blinded and thus the whole thing could be published without compromising anonymity. An oracle basically.
>Proving something from modified blockchain is pretty hard thing if it is modified properly
>Problem that even if person claims that his vote was changed, there is no hard proofs.
That would also not be the case in my just-now imagined system. I was guessing that the voter would, as part of the voting process, get back a signed certificate with something like the block hash and a blinded MAC of his party choice, his device verifies it, he approves it cross-sign it and submit it. Thus he would have a certificate to compare against what's found in the blockchain, which would prevent replacing the whole chain
>Technically there is no real way to make elections transparent with remote electronic vote
I work with computers and I have always known that electronic voting is a bad meme (paper-vote tampering at least requires a certain degree of distributed real-world effort by meat-and-bones fallible people, while an electronic voting system can theoretically be arranged for highly-centralized tampering, also software is such insecure shit). However, I thought a verifiable system (like blockchain-based) was at least interesting
>Maybe phasing out anonymous vote
Yeah, that's no good. In fact, even the "oracle" system I envisioned is problematic due to being vulnerable to rubberhose cryptanalysis

Bernd 09/21/2021 (Tue) 17:50:00 [Preview] No.45078 del
So this is for the seats in the Duma.
I like those systems which adjust the seat distribution to reflect the people's will better.
What's that pine tree with ~500 000 votes?
>Half of single-seats (vote for person, not party) in Moscow were won by non-government candidates after "paper" part of voting, but they all suddenly lost after electronic part.
It isn't suspicious at all, I wouldn't be concerned...

This I found dystopic. Imagine a future voting system where you tap on your phone and then you get automatic results with no possible way of knowing that how the whole society voted. You could be happy if your party/candidates won, it would be like a lottery or some shit.
Even worse, just by these descriptions you guys gave, the logic and the structure of system itself - and its safety guards guaranteeing its cleanness - would be so impenetrable by everyone but the few designers, people could only do just believe it's doing its job fair and square, without any tampering.
People would be detached from governance entirely. There would be some talking heads in the media, introduced as opposing politicians, and people would get some data they can't validate, issues they can disagree on with each other, and a button they can tap on frantically. Wait we are already having this, minus the button.

Bernd 09/21/2021 (Tue) 22:46:22 [Preview] No.45082 del
I get the quip, nicely said, but I'll just pedantically clarify that:
- a cryptographic system with a public blockchain, if such a thing could be successfully designed and securely implemented (lol), although probably impenetrable for untrained people, could be susceptible of formal or quasi-formal mathematical proofing and algorithmic validation. Which is what would make it "at least interesting"
- "oracle" is a technical term

Bernd 09/22/2021 (Wed) 21:17:12 [Preview] No.45085 del
(6.93 KB 400x76 blockchain.jpg)
>Hm. Well, I don't know how they implemented the system. I just assumed that the votes (blocks) were cryptographically blinded and thus the whole thing could be published without compromising anonymity. An oracle basically.

They implemented this as intended, real blockchain with some anonymized tokens as id. Problem that process is non-transparent, i.e. you don't get transaction id or anything after vote for example. Recently they've published web interface to view transactions, although they don't contain data that allows check your own vote. Some people already described internals and say that there some problems with data validation, especially about voter counts.

But whatever, for that specific election everyone know what happened, and it would happen with or without electronic system.

>I was guessing that the voter would, as part of the voting process, get back a signed certificate with something like the block hash and a blinded MAC of his party choice, his device verifies it, he approves it cross-sign it and submit it. Thus he would have a certificate to compare against what's found in the blockchain, which would prevent replacing the whole chain

Yes, blockchain-based voting system potentially may be made very transparent. Although there is no complete solution for proving that you didn't mess with certificate (and blaming you for this while silently replacing the chain). This requires large amount of "loyal" voters who would be silent and administrative support though.

I guess adding another independent blockchain into voting system may solve issues, although it would work only for those organizations who really want clear elections.

>However, I thought a verifiable system (like blockchain-based) was at least interesting

As far as I know, some companies already providing commercial voting system for non-government purposes (in-organisation voting or such) based on blockchain that look relative ok from outside. Sadly most of "blockchain" "tech" is a scam nowadays, and it is rarely used for things where blockchain fits best.

Bernd 09/22/2021 (Wed) 21:42:28 [Preview] No.45086 del
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>What's that pine tree with ~500 000 votes?

Greens. Second green ones, because there also another green party. They had some internal issues and decided to split. Don't even know who is more "real" and who is spoiler.

There is some specific thing in modern Russian voting system - using some kind of fake parties. For example, classic commies (KPRF, communist party of Russian Federation) is often viewed as not-so-controlled opposition (with limits), and to confuse voters government made another party - "communists of Russia". Sometimes they even try to use candidates with similar last names to make people confused much. Many voters decide their vote only at last moment, and many of them (especially old people who not ok with these tricks) confuse one commies for others. Two green parties may have same story.

The most extreme and most clownish example of that trick happened in Sankt-Petersburg recently: there is some candidate named Boris Vishnevsky (don't know really much about him though). Two his opponents changed their names to Boris Vishnevsky and even used similar (also slightly photoshopped) photos as their official images. It was very fun, although very third-worldish.


>This I found dystopic. Imagine a future voting system where you tap on your phone and then you get automatic results with no possible way of knowing that how the whole society voted. You could be happy if your party/candidates won, it would be like a lottery or some shit.

Personally I think that democracy in terms that we idealistically imaging is dead. And this is global process, more complex that just some separate totalitarian tendencies. It is more like transition to another level of global technology that makes voting and voters completely useless, some kind of cyberpunk corporate dystopia (just without aesthetically cyber part) where people are more like product. And using democracy and voting as facade is outdated, because people already "trust the experts" in everything.

Don't know if it is good or bad, because there were no real democracy in past, only illusion that masses may control something, and only in small time period like 20th century.

Bernd 09/23/2021 (Thu) 19:58:39 [Preview] No.45090 del
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The most important EU election will take place on Sunday, ze German one. Whom they put into power will influence greatly which avenue will everyone take in the EU to hell - the path can be different, but the destination was set long ago. Oh well.
Reichstag Bundestag offers 598 seats to take, 300 is needed for majority, which last time the strongest party, the CDU/CSU alliance couldn't achieve. Now without Mutti Merkel they are in an even worse position.

CDU/CSU - conservatives (tho I do not see what they conserve, whatever, let's just roll with the labels), now they have Armin Laschet instead of Merkel
SPD - social-democrat, Olaf Sholz, main contender
Grünen - green, they had a rise in popularity in recent years (and had a spike some months ago), but riding that "stop climate change" horse is just too easy by anyone, so others can chip away votes with similar rhetoric
AfD - far right, strong-ish in the East, but nationwide, they can only perform their usual ~10%
FDP - classical liberal, boring
Linke - socialist (in transition to soc-dem, tho I think then their supporters could just vote for SPD), kinda interesting, leave NATO tunes, and redistribute wealth

Now I'm not at home in German politics, but I see a coalition happening between the SPD, Greens, and Left (there were coalition before participating the CDU/CSU and the SPD, so they aren't above of unlikely cooperation), from the polls (of Politico...) they approach to 50% support which should be more than enough for >50% of the seats (last time the CDU/CSU got 246 with 33%). Beside constituencies, representatives are sent from the party lists, and they have other rules too, making the distribution of the seats not linear.
In a Guardian article I found two possible coalition, both containing the Greens:
1. traffic light coalition: SPD (red), FDP (yellow), Greens (green)
2. Jamaica coalition: CDU (black), Greens (green), FDP (yellow)
It seems just as AfD, the Linke is also considered untouchable when the question about coalitions comes up.

Climate and economic recovery are the two main issues. Not that exciting, but very much predictable.

Bernd 09/25/2021 (Sat) 17:23:10 [Preview] No.45099 del
>Personally I think that democracy...
>Don't know if it is good or bad...
I almost ended up posting something similar previously, even the ideal democracy and "real democracy was never tried" featured as well, then deleted.
Liberals appropriated the democracy for themselves, and others raises the point that illiberal democracy is also democracy. I would turn it onto both and would say (and probably said in the past) that this isn't democracy. Just because bunch of people can go to the urns to cast their votes, that doesn't make it democracy, even the Greeks back then knew this.
It's weird that literacy and education achieved never seen levels during the history of humankind and now people are just as far detached from the possibility to decide their own fate as anytime else. We have the ability to give the information to everyone, so everyone could make their informed decision, and we have nothing but bs, false information, lies, silly non-issues, political circus, and babelian chaos of social media's billion headed hydra. Is it because of the manipulative exploiters of the masses, or simply humanity is unable to function otherwise?

Bernd 09/26/2021 (Sun) 08:59:54 [Preview] No.45101 del
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Tomorrow: election in Germany. Some more infos and stats.
Party support is fairly similar, and results are expected about these.
The Germans consider these topics are the most important issues:
- environment and climate change
- corona pandemic
- foreigners and migration, refugees
- social disparity (this is kinda interesting, they also feel the gap growing, some of them at least)
- rents, living costs
In social media the most liked person is Alice Weidel, the leader of AfD. That diagram also tells me that the supporters of the lesser parties are the most vocal and enthusiastic, probably they are mostly supported by the relatively younger generations - both because of the more radical ideas, and the comfortable use of social media. While most people (the old people) would vote for the "safe" CDU and SPD candidates. The quiet majority.
I would be interested to see how people with foreign origin - but with citizenship ofc - vote.

Bernd 09/26/2021 (Sun) 09:05:55 [Preview] No.45102 del
Ooh, we also got some attention:
>Laschet also stressed his European credentials, saying that the EU “was more important than ever in this unstable world” and must therefore be kept together.
>This included holding out an olive branch to Poland and Hungary, which are locked in fierce rule-of-law battles with Brussels. “Yes, there is some dissent now about the rule of law. But we will not be able to hold this Europe together without Poland, without Central and Eastern Europe, without the Baltic states, without Hungary,” he said.
I don't see a realistic scenario where Hungary would leave the EU no matter of any voices.

Bernd 09/26/2021 (Sun) 14:08:46 [Preview] No.45105 del
Heh, I wrote tomorrow. Tomorrow is today.

Bernd 09/26/2021 (Sun) 17:59:28 [Preview] No.45107 del
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ZDF and ARD show a bit different results, but the two largest parties are standing head to head about 25%, the SPD might lead, a bit closer to 26%.
Greens at 14.3 percent
FDP at 11.6 percent
AfD at 10.8 percent
the Left at 5 - it balances on the threshold, they might just make it... or not
But these results are based on projections, and exit polls. Although the final result won't be too different, we're gonna see them tomorrow or sometimes (it's weird that sometimes the real results are buried deep and no or barely any article can be found about them, only the exit polls are declared loudly).

Bernd 09/27/2021 (Mon) 18:35:32 [Preview] No.45118 del
I think it doesn't matter for Die Linke since the threshold isn't just 5% but either/or winning 3 seats via first-past-the-post share, which they did.

Bernd 09/27/2021 (Mon) 21:12:46 [Preview] No.45119 del
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Here's something for Bernd to chew on. It was written by a Hungarian doctor of philosophy, in 1940. I feel it belongs here, due to EU, the events going down, and the endeavors of certain interest groups. I'm hoping to post this in two or three parts. Here's the first.

[...] Europe - this have always lived in her children consciously or unconsciously, controlled their thoughts, feelings, and actions, their whole attitude - is a great spiritual unity, with common culture, ideals, and final goals, but with sovereign and independent members, nations, whom cohere with each other in Europe's unity, but not dependent on each other*; they are all obligated to serve the European spiritual unity and her goals, but not each other's interest. Europe a colorful unity. Who turns against her unity is a bad European, but him also a bad European, whom wants to erase her colorfulness. Europe's final essence in her Latinity too is the Greek heritage: the united Hellas of the polities stubbornly defending their sovereignity: the universality and individuality wonderful, and marvelously fertile pairing. The multitude of unity, and multitude in unity: the Greek philosophy's great question, and the eternal secret of the Greek. And the secret of Europe.
[...] Hellas wasn't sent into grave. Her spirit lives even today. This spirit could have been killed only by the tyranny, which eradicates the colorfulness. He who doesn't understand that harmony is the tension of the opposing, won't understand the Greek, because that is harmony. Harmony, tension of the opposing, symphony. And not uniformity, the inarticulated monotony, if not deadly silence. This is the essence of Europe too. And who does not understand this, and who wants to extinguish this, he does not understand Europe; he isn't her real child, but enemy of her. Europe is the homeland of folks indeed! Folks, nations - plural! -, and not not folk or one nation. Neither one. Neither one has the right to climb over the others, suppress them, eradicate their individual characteristics. These kinds of pursuits are sins against the spirit of Europe.

cont Bernd 09/28/2021 (Tue) 13:51:20 [Preview] No.45120 del
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But the other Roman heritage also lives inside the European folks: the memory of the imperium. The empire, the unity and singleness of the universal state, the power over the world, which was achieved once, is always a lingering wish of the European nations. The imperialism is European just the same as the objection of it. And this wouldn't be an issue in itself. Empire, the real empire means only the unity of the state, the centralized structure of the society, its governance and defense, so it can incorporate different nations, without taking their national characteristics and independence as nations. An empire can be a-national or supranational. What's more, it can only be that. The point of an empire is to unite folks, nations into a common statehood, but itself is positioned above those, it isn't national but neutral in the question of nationality. National or folkish empire is impossible, oxymoron. But the European nations bears the curse of their own origin. They grew out of tribes, they developed enclosed inside, so they find the community ideal which has a folkish, ethnical unity. Their ideal country is dwelled by one folk, their state is nation state, where the state power serves one nation that grew out from one folk. The flame of their imperialism isn't flared by the imperial idea, but the supremacy of their nation. This is a false and illegitimate imperialism. It is against the spirit of Europe. Its intention is creating a Europe where one folk, one nation lives in one state, or at least one folk and one nation rules over the others, those oppressed in their ethnical characteristics, doomed to death in their national aspirations. The imperialism of the European nations and the violent assimilation, or oppressive ethnical politics, goes hand in hand. This is why Europe's cultural unity cannot turn into the unity of statehood, imperum. Only into confederacy.

Bernd 09/28/2021 (Tue) 16:20:20 [Preview] No.45121 del
I share Bismarck's Opinion on this, but then I am not European. However there is that other Australian that is a historian and is always talking about Pan-Europeism.

Bernd 09/28/2021 (Tue) 20:19:53 [Preview] No.45127 del
Well, that's one particular device/implementation, and tbh rather more like an API endpoint providing consensus-by-convention than an oracle, because its decisions are an algorithmic result of whatever data is fed into its inputs
In a general sense, "oracle" is often used in cryptography and infosec to refer to a process or program that can give you (useful) information in an a-priori opaque manner. In the case of cryptography it could be for example that you may via some cryptographic operation determine whether or not certain ciphertext encodes a given piece of data, while anyone else may not, or may get a different anwser (so the oracle can give you a custom answer as long as you present the appropriate offering, such as a key). Or in security parlance, oracle can be used to describe a kind of vulnerability that lets an attacker confirm and/or refute theories about secret information (thus reducing entropy of the secret) while itself not outright disclosing the secret or how the answer is determined

>Although there is no complete solution for proving that you didn't mess with certificate (and blaming you for this while silently replacing the chain).
Hm. I guess they could just accuse you of having changed your private key after the fact, while they re-sign your ballot/certificate with another key. So it's basically the problem of proving that you are/aren't the legitimate owner of a given key. And I suppose adding a prior pre-committment phase is just pushing the problem down another layer... Here's is where distributed consensus becomes useful, except that something as important as the state relying on unproven technology is too risky
>adding another independent blockchain into voting system may solve issues
The problem with this is that saying "independent" is easy while in practice hard to define and even harder to implement and ensure

Dutch bernd Bernd 09/29/2021 (Wed) 23:17:42 [Preview] No.45137 del
u got a pdf link for that bernd? Sounds ebin

Bernd 09/30/2021 (Thu) 15:46:08 [Preview] No.45153 del
>In a general sense, "oracle" is...
I see. Thanks.

Sorry, it's a physical copy I have, he is a relatively obscure writer, and the publisher is relatively obscure too, I don't think anyone bothered to make an e-book out of it. An English translation is even less likely, the little you can read above in those two posts are mine.
I think I'll translate two more which are still related to the political situation we're going through, and to be honest these statements, historical observations, remain true as long as European nations exist.
But the topic of the book isn't centered around this, it is about the Hungary of Mathias Corvinus, and the king himself.

Bernd 10/01/2021 (Fri) 15:18:15 [Preview] No.45171 del
> This is why Europe's cultural unity cannot turn into the unity of statehood, imperum. Only into confederacy.
Each day europeaness is getting more important contrary to nationalism in Europe, the idea and fear of *the others* helped it tremendously. So in the long run nationalisms will be something like micro nationalisms in Europe. Also not to mention a confedral empire is still an empire, it's just an Empire with created by willing members compared to supressed ones.

Bernd 10/01/2021 (Fri) 15:21:18 [Preview] No.45172 del

Bernd 10/02/2021 (Sat) 12:22:50 [Preview] No.45175 del
>europeaness is getting more important...
I disagree.
Nationalism plays a reduced part since WWII. I can't say it is nonexistent, since all the countries has people who believes national identity, their ethnicity matters, their national politics have to be preserved and aimed along their national interests. They are marginalized. Even those parties that today are featured in left-liberal media as nationalist (eg. Fidesz on the Hungary), they really aren't. Their resistance toward the imperialist Brussels is a sham, the existence of national governments is obsolete. Even now the survival of the folk, the ethnicity is in the hands of the people only.
And then the left-liberals are destroying Europeanness itself. Maybe a redefinition is going on as globalization is going on and new supranational level of control is getting constructed, and some new polarizations form.
>Also not to mention a confedral empire is still an empire,
I don't think there is a confederate empire. A confederacy is many centered due to the sovereign states it consist of, the empire has only one center, it is one sovereign state, it is too different type of state organization practice. A solution for the Austro-Hungarian Empire was to dial it back to confederacy, creating member states instead of subjects. Yes it would have been the same state, but the empire status would have been abolished.
One can think of "empire" as a more abstract form, like how the US is referred to as an empire, when it is a republic. Still it doesn't make it a real empire even if it enjoys such status on the globe.

Bernd 10/05/2021 (Tue) 15:37:27 [Preview] No.45187 del
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Bit more than a year ago Romania elected a new parliament, and cabinet. >>41366
Now the government fell due to a no-confidence vote.
Apparently one of the governing parties left (USR) the govt. (leaving PNL and RMDSZ at the helm) turning the opposition the majority.
Romania is struggling with the recession.


Bernd 10/10/2021 (Sun) 13:03:33 [Preview] No.45248 del
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Okay, I avoided this long enough, the opposition preliminaries of the 2022 parliamentary election of Hungary. Oh god.
Since no opposition party is strong enough to oust the Fidesz-KDNP alliance, and gain the government, they decided to put forward a common candidate for the seat of prime minister, and run on the election together all supporting the same person.
Opposition parties are:
DK - split from the socialist MSZP, this is the party of PM Gyurcsány Ferenc, whom the 90% of Hungarians are love to hate. Somehow he still remained relevant, and the fact is DK is the a largest opposition party.
MSZP - what remained from the socialist MSZP. Nothing remarkable can be told.
Jobbik - the ex-right radical party, the radical part went, now they are moderate right I dunno.
Momentum - liberals,, they are taking over the place of LMP
MMM - new formation around one of the candidates, Márki-Zay Péter, more about him below, the party basically the same size as the LMP,
LMP - liberals, getting more marginal by the day

The goal of the preliminaries is to make sure the opposition can stay in the news, and the headlines, because no real issue to be opposition about, except fags, and how the Fidesz doesn't allow them spreading the fagness in kindergartens. Well they could cry about the corruption too, but despite everyone is pissed about it, noone cares enough to do something, or rally around one opposing force at least. So the only way to stay relevant is to make a huge circus about who's gonna be their PM candidate.

As how things stand now in the first round of the preliminaries noone gained the majority of the votes and voters. So second round is starting today and will go on till next Saturday, now only with two candidates for the candidateship.
1. Dobrev Klára - her most notable achievement is being the wife of PM Gyurcsány Ferenc. It's really great because this makes her hated by everyone, except a huge chunk of opposition voters, and thanks to them she is the most supported candidate!
2. Márki-Zay Péter - on national level he was basically unkown until this thing started, however he is a mayor of a county seat, a major town (although it isn't among the largest), so he isn't nothing. He basically is on a conservative position, among all these socialists and liberals. He should have been quite acceptable for Jobbik too, but for some reason they ain't actively support him, I guess, in the second round their voters will pick him anyway.

So this is how things stand now.
Some more details here, use google translator or don't even try, it ain't that interesting:

Bernd 12/30/2021 (Thu) 09:42:15 [Preview] No.45988 del
So the guy sought to contrast the concepts and legacies of European imperium and European folks, showing that they are contradictory, and offering confederation as a resolution. Another mentioned resolution (probably a reference to the third reign) manages to break the interlock by suppressing some of the counterposed factors, but he deems this one illegitimate.
Some V4 politicians have again made explicit comments about this recently. This is from Poland:
>Mateusz Morawiecki, PM: Efforts are underway to turn the EU into a federal superstate. Berlin's support for the United States of Europe is a dangerous utopia that could lead to conflicts
>Jaroslaw Kaczynski, deputy PM and head of PiS: Germany is seeking to turn the European Union into a federalist Fourth Reich built on the basis of the EU and the European court of justice is being used as an instrument for this
I suppose Germany's liberal "pan-europeanists" figure that globalization trends and demographic changes will continue in Europe, and with them the processes of EU integration and centralization. Maybe they envision that one day, in the not too distant future, the system of liberal communication and movement would have produced sufficient ideological and ethnic homogenization that suddenly individual European states won't look or think themselves much more different from each other than e.g. USA's states, at which point EU could finally asume the role it was originally designed for

>Since no opposition party is strong enough to oust the Fidesz-KDNP alliance, and gain the government, they decided to put forward a common candidate for the seat of prime minister, and run on the election together all supporting the same person.
Is this a Soros project too? I think his Wide Open Nations project had funded/organized this same "all against one" pseudo-political format before. Where was it? Moldavia? US? Poland?

Bernd 12/31/2021 (Fri) 20:05:46 [Preview] No.45997 del
Random South American news from the past few months:

- Argentina has enforced large-scale price controls, which means their inflation is already out of control and won't be fixed in the long run.
- One of the Brazilian Supreme Court judges said the country already has a de facto semipresidential system with the Supreme Court serving as a Moderating Power. For context, the Moderating Power was a fourth element to the Executive-Legislative-Judiciary trio held by the Emperor and said to have been de facto exerted by the military in republican times. This demonstrates Bolsonaro's weakness and makes me wonder if the Supreme Court judges think they're the Crown or a military junta.
- Leftist presidential victory in Chile.
- The Castillo government in Peru began a new land reform program but it doesn't seem to include land redistribution. President Gonzalo, head of the Shining Path under arrest since 1992, has died in prison. Irrelevant Brazilian Maoists (https://anovademocracia.com.br/) have called Castillo a fascist CIA puppet and noted how he's backed by Movadef, which they also hate for being revisionists and straying from the path of Marxism-Leninism-Maoism-Gonzalo Thought.

Bernd 01/01/2022 (Sat) 12:15:34 [Preview] No.46022 del
>probably a reference to the third reign
Reich? You mean the German Empire?
Not sure. Could be. The book itself is about the Medieval, early Renaissance Hungarian Kingdom of Matthias Corvinus.
The Hungarian "empire" is a Europe within Europe, with similar issues and after Trianon many showed interest in the question here. The Austro-Hungarian Empire similarly. And the solution offered by king Karl IV (I as emperor).

>Is this a Soros project too?
That would probably be a safe bet.
>this same "all against one" pseudo-political format
I know such in Czechia. The "coalition" of the opposition won there last year.

Bernd 01/01/2022 (Sat) 13:00:45 [Preview] No.46023 del
Another year rich in success stories awaits for South America...
It's time to buy land in Patagonia.
Lots of red for one website. If I came across it by accident, I would know just by the looks.

Bernd 01/01/2022 (Sat) 14:21:52 [Preview] No.46024 del
Now taht we are at it, Márky-Zay is the PM candidate of the opposition. Which means not much, since we don't vote for PM candidates, but for:
1. a party list
2. a representative (for the legislation; he doesn't even have to be in the same party which we support)
Regarding to parties, on the ballot there will be the Fidesz-KDNP, the Mi Hazánk (right radical, from the Jobbik), and an opposition party depending on which one is the "strongest" locally - so probably not a common party alliance of the coalition. And maybe a couple of small parties, like the Two Tailed Dog Party.
Then after elections, the new legislation elects the PM. Which literally can be anyone they want if the opposition wins, it's just an agreement (supported by the voters in the primary) that Márky-Zay will be the PM. If the situation will demands or allows it, it can happen, that someone else will be that. Ofc if they disregard the primary arbitrarily they could lose popular support, but I'm not sure how much that matters. And since the whole parliament elects the PM, the opposition parties probably won't have the luxury to vote on the person for PM differently - Fidesz might be in there in large enough numbers -, so they'll stick with Márky-Zay.
And ofc this is all just hypothetical, last I heard the Fidesz leads now.

Bernd 01/16/2022 (Sun) 13:22:23 [Preview] No.46135 del
Not sure if this should go in the news thread or what

Marketa Pekarová Adamová, a czech parliamertarian, woman, and the official speaker of some parliament committee recently "interfered" in Hungarian politics ahead of the presidential elections by stating in a speech that "Hungarians are about to remove Orbán" from office

Bernd 01/16/2022 (Sun) 14:16:11 [Preview] No.46136 del
Poland had a ready-to-go bill meant to limit the influence of foreign entities (beyond EEC) in polish media. In particular the largest public broadcaster TVN is owned by the same company that owns CNN, and the law would have forced them to divest (at least partially).
USA was openly against it, already during the previous administration IIRC
A few weeks ago, the president of poland vetoed the bill, after incessant whining from the opposition, liberals, homos, abortionists, antifa, and similar ilk (main consoomers of that media). Want to guess who swayed his hand the strongest?

Funnily, mere days afterward, a foreign (USA) media company (facebook) encroached into polish politics by banning Konfederacja, a right-wing party fairly popular in that platform, possibly violating a recent polish law regarding online free expression

Bernd 01/16/2022 (Sun) 16:01:04 [Preview] No.46137 del
>presidential elections
We don't have that. We have legislative elections. But that's ok, Orbán is a very prominent individual, maybe in the future these times will be called Orbán-era after him (in our system PM is the key figure not the Prez), especially if Fidesz-KDNP gets reelected for the fourth term.
>Hungarians are about to remove Orbán
Maybe. Probably not. I give a 2:1 for Orbán & Co. to win.

IS there such thing as no foreign influence? When Tucker Carlson interviewed Orbán had to explain where their success, their authority coming from. He did not say it comes from the people or God, he just takes a blink upward and both of them laugh. It could mean from God but the whole thing looked like he meant some higher-up in their picked masonic order or something...

Bernd 01/28/2022 (Fri) 16:24:14 [Preview] No.46231 del
>IS there such thing as no foreign influence?
It is pretty clear that there is no such lack of influence in Poland, since the law was dropped at the last instance, probably at the behest of a very influential foreigner ;-)
Ok, I'm not seeing your point. First, this was specifically about "media" influence. Plus a similar law already exists in France, and the German govt. goes to all extents possible to prevent media like RT to have a broadcast license (and not even air broadcast: even their youtube channels with hundreds of thousands of subscribers, one of the most popular german-language media in that platform, are targeted and banned for dubious reasons)
Also, as I understand, this polish law didn't attempt to prevent all foreign media influence, just to limit it. And furthermore, it only applied to entities outside the EEC
Anyway, I suppose the bill will return in due time in version adjusted to appropriately exempt said foreign influencer

Bernd 02/01/2022 (Tue) 16:55:26 [Preview] No.46283 del
For several months it's been clear Lula is guaranteed to win this year's election.

Bernd 02/09/2022 (Wed) 09:19:02 [Preview] No.46384 del
I want to add something a post but it's more about politics, and is a sidetrack to the topic discussed there. It's something Brazilbernd wrote >>46382 I'm gonna quote it here:
>But a sensible guess is that, as Party members weren't all killed in 1976 and it didn't "start from a clean slate", it changed its worldview until believing in what it does at the present. Instead of conscious liars, it's easier for the current leadership to sleep peacefully at night knowing they have the most advanced scientific mindset contiuous with the great scientific thinkers of old. It might be hypocritical and inconsistent but ruling ideologies are hypocritical and inconsistent all the time.
Being hypocritical and inconsistent is the salt and pepper of politicians. There are two views about facts and the truth:
1. facts are constant, the truth changes (kinda: what we believe to be true changes shape as we learn the hard facts);
2. facts change, the truth is constant (kinda: the truth is solid, and we get closer of knowing it as we sort out what the facts are and what aren't);
Politicians opted with a third choice:
3. facts change, truth change - and this process is constant.
They get couple of facts and they base an image into that which they sell as truth on one day, then as others show that there are other facts, or the facts are different, the politicians just say that in the light of recently acquired facts the truth is something else. And they feel consistent because this process of flip-flopping is what constant.
This is also consistent with science, as science goes through ages by shedding skin of untruth that claimed to be truth for a while. It's really easy for politicians to refer to science or use it to back themselves with it.
I also want to add more, but that maybe belongs to a philosophy thread.

>this year's election
When that will happen?

Bernd 02/09/2022 (Wed) 16:47:50 [Preview] No.46385 del
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>When that will happen?
First round on the 2nd of October, second on the 30th. Lula is likely to win primarily because of the decaying economic situation and nostalgia for better times in the 2000s, despite the slide into stagnation and crisis beginning under his handpicked successor. Ciro and Moro are already well known by the electorate and battle out for the third spot; who knows if maybe one of them can reach the second round. Moro can't win the second round because he can't be populist enough. Maybe Ciro can, he's simultaneously probing the centrist electorate with a moderate image and attacks on Lula as well as trying to take over Lula's place in the left.

Bernd 02/10/2022 (Thu) 16:36:20 [Preview] No.46391 del
Does he still campaign knowing he is well ahead? If he does, does he have a explicit position on the social/cultural "wars" coming from anglo-land (like Bolsonaro had previously)?
Supposing he wins the presidency, will he have an agreeable or combative congress?

Bernd 02/11/2022 (Fri) 02:18:47 [Preview] No.46398 del
>Does he still campaign knowing he is well ahead?
Of course, there are many months ahead and a lot can change, he can't get complacent. Though lately the news seem more focused on the other candidates.
>does he have a explicit position on the social/cultural "wars" coming from anglo-land (like Bolsonaro had previously)?
Clearly on the side of the Western "cultural revolution". He may not talk about it all the time but his party has a clear position, activists are loud about it and government programmes during elections have sections about gender equality, racism, "LGBTI+ citizenship" and the like. The wider left follows up on Western trends, last year it was colonizer statue burning. NGO money flows in and the left has cared more and more about this as the years went on.
Bolsonaro got a lot of votes by reacting to this, even though once in power he has no accomplishments to speak of on this matter. All the way back in 2019 the Supreme Court criminalized homophobia (one point in Haddad's government program), creating legislation is a Congressional prerogative but they decided that for legal purposes homophobia is racism, which is already a crime. Last year Congress created a law defining psychological violence against women and Bolsonaro did not veto it. Those causes keep winning victories in the institutions on autopilot. On the second round Lula will surely present himself as a Christian family man but under his government there'd be more legislative proposals and government departments to advance these topics, so there is a difference.
Bolsonaro did try to wage the cultural war on one topic, the memory of the military dictatorship, but that's not as important as other areas and his approach is stupid. Naturally, he's lost in his attempts.
There's a non-culture war topic on which the Worker's Party has an unpopular stance: crime. Bolsonaro's calls for harshness were popular. In power he's achieved little actual change on this (security is mainly a state, not federal responsibility) but murders have declined. Lula will have to be careful, as being open about going lax on crime will lose him votes.
>Supposing he wins the presidency, will he have an agreeable or combative congress?
The core of Congress are ideology-less parties who will back anyone as long as they get their fair share of the budget and cabinet. Lula can bribe them perfectly well, that's what the 2005 Mensalão was about. Dilma's fall was the exception, but that was under specific circumstances - the president was weak and those parties opportunistically took over.
Oppositionist Lula is a rough, angry creature but in power he became a successful pragmatist. However, this isn't 2003 Lula, who got in power for the first time and had to win prestige. He has been humiliated a lot in the past years and certainly has a taste for vengeance. He won't be a pure pragmatist, I speculate he will also want symbolic victories over his old enemies.

Bernd 02/11/2022 (Fri) 12:56:45 [Preview] No.46415 del
Thanks for explaining
Sounds like so far Bolsonaro's term is passing by without much impact
>the memory of the military dictatorship, but that's not as important
Maybe it was a strategic choice, not having many allies in the courts or the congress or the media...
Btw I just noticed that da Silva is older than I imagined: ~76. That's quite a few years older than Bolsonaro and even Putin for example. He will be 80-81 by the end of the next term

Bernd 02/22/2022 (Tue) 02:24:09 [Preview] No.46527 del
>Maybe it was a strategic choice, not having many allies in the courts or the congress or the media...
He does have allies in Congress after bribing them, but at this point this support merely keeps him in power.
His efforts to rehabilitate the military period are a bad strategic choice, picking a cause which has little direct impact on people's lives, doesn't even have unanimous support (the dictatorship was popular at its apex and unpopular at its end) and fights off present-day civic propaganda with 70s civic propaganda. He's not a very intellectual officer, all he can do is repeat the old "Democratic Revolution of March 31st, 1964" rhetoric, even though "revolution" is a poor term for the historical reality, even "counterrevolution" makes more sense. A more productive endeavor would be to dehabilitate the memory of the communist guerrillas, who by this point have officially become "victims of political repression" even when they died in combat.

Bernd 02/22/2022 (Tue) 02:38:46 [Preview] No.46528 del
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Chinaman's interesting notes on what China actually is from the inside.

Bernd 02/22/2022 (Tue) 02:40:24 [Preview] No.46529 del
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Bernd 02/22/2022 (Tue) 02:41:44 [Preview] No.46530 del
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Bernd 02/22/2022 (Tue) 10:55:51 [Preview] No.46543 del
>actually is
Some missing context regarding this chinaman identity
(This guy also reposts some of the typical anti-china western propaganda takes, which adds more question marks for me)
I have to say I don't typically find it very interesting when the search engine responds with the keywords I entered. But I did find some interesting things I would like to comment about (e.g. about the [sometimes mutual] "greener on the other side" aspect of political dissidence, about the age-old tactic of encouraging "tribalism" to split the enemy empire, about to our incipient "new cold war" and the peculiar bubbles created in places like tw*tter, etc.) however I probably won't have time until the weekend at least

Bernd 02/22/2022 (Tue) 11:03:54 [Preview] No.46544 del
>chinese dissident twitter ... separatists, maoists, and han supremacists
It is clear that he is not a han supremacist or a maoist

Bernd 02/22/2022 (Tue) 16:26:26 [Preview] No.46547 del
He has a Chinese account too (UmeDiqi) and regularly posts in Chinese. His posts naturally include "esoteric" information that nobody in the West cares about as well as irony and trolling, a lot of it also esoteric, so I don't expect him to express a fully consistent (at least from my uninformed perspective) and understandable set of facts. His racism against different Chinese regions only makes him more genuine, I know a lot of Brazilian regional stereotypes completely unknown to gringos; if you claimed to be a paulista and didn't hate Rio de Janeiro, I'd doubt your identity. Maybe local racisms are all part of a foreign plot to fuel separatism? But I guess he's not a real Chinese because he says the grass isn't that green as you can see from the outside and the grass must be green.
You could also prove I'm not Brazilian because I agree with a lot of negative national stereotypes and find self-deprecation funny, therefore I must be part of a Western-funded NGO trying to divide the country through Amerindian sectarianism and colonial history self-hate.

Bernd 02/22/2022 (Tue) 22:25:53 [Preview] No.46554 del
You are extrapolating and responding to a straw man. I did not claim that anyone was or wasn't a "real Chinese" (or a "real Brazilian"). I added relevant context to his statements: he is some kind of racially-motivated anti-"china" separatist (literally, given his interpretation of what the "china" polity is or should be), apparently with a grudge towards han, manchu, and other subgroups, and chinese balkanization (again) appears preferable to him. He is also 21.
Does this persona belong to a "real Chinese"? Maybe, I'm have not claimed one thing or the other. Is his position *operationally* aligned with that of a competing power? Absolutely. I suppose he would agree, given his own take on opinions, stances, and abnormal internet users
Sorry, I don't have more time for elaborating what I actually wanted to. But maybe you would prefer that we drop the seriousdiscussion and just try to bait each other? Sorry, this question is itself a kind of bait, but I'm just joking, just a tiny bit annoyed about the straw man

Bernd 02/22/2022 (Tue) 23:48:31 [Preview] No.46556 del
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>a grudge towards han, manchu, and other subgroups
Millions of Chinese hold grudges against other subgroups, that's just natural in a large and diverse country. He's also a minority. His unorthodox beliefs about who are the Han and what is China can be reached by any other Chinese with access to his sources, though not all will get to his conclusions. Maybe he even thinks China would be better off balkanized, but even that doesn't necessarily mean he thinks it's a viable political program that people should work towards. And there are many other things he has to take into account to reach his conclusion of "what ought to happen", maybe he doesn't even have one. Just because there are three groups of Chinese dissidents doesn't mean they're the only three groups, nor that, because he doesn't belong to two of them, he belongs to the other. He even contradicts himself a bit on whether he's a dissident.
I have my regional grudges and I think Brazilian states are latent proto-nationstates whose unification was a historical accident and some of them even have a shaky claim to being part of historical colonial "Brazil". Am I operationally aligned with my country's enemies? No, because there are a lot of other things I think about. This Chinaman has never been favorable to liberals or a "color revolution", I don't think he sees himself as aligned with a Western destruction of China. He most definitively doesn't think his worldview comes from the West.
>He is also 21.
He's better informed than either one of us.
>But maybe you would prefer that we drop the seriousdiscussion and just try to bait each other?
He's also baiting and shitposting in one way or another. But it's like posting "Germany is a fake country" on an imageboard, it's plausible to reach that conclusion from history and even if it's wrong it doesn't come from nowhere.

Bernd 03/10/2022 (Thu) 21:49:46 [Preview] No.46881 del
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Got brand new President of the Republic, Novák Katalin, 44, mother of three kids.
Our prez is a weak one, mostly with representative functions. They are elected by the Parliament, for 5 years.

Bernd 03/15/2022 (Tue) 11:31:33 [Preview] No.46939 del
has been a while since a woman was head of state of Hungary.

Bernd 03/15/2022 (Tue) 11:40:42 [Preview] No.46940 del
Yes. We were very progressive back then...
And I think it is a good move on behalf of the Fidesz. Women in power is a thin now, Merkel, Ursula (fucking bears srsly, we have a very bad luck with bears) von der Leyen. She is an empowered woman and a mother keeping a family running.

Bernd 03/15/2022 (Tue) 13:09:59 [Preview] No.46941 del
>national politics
Pure decadence and gayness.
Women's capacity for leadership and oversight stops at children and the kitchen.
>Ursula (fucking bears srsly, we have a very bad luck with bears) von der Leyen
Fucking harpies and acolytes of GlohoHomo. Krauts to boot.
Learn from based Africa, these demons are below the dignity of even a Ugandan FM.

Bernd 03/15/2022 (Tue) 13:12:37 [Preview] No.46942 del

Bernd 03/15/2022 (Tue) 13:16:04 [Preview] No.46943 del
(3.20 MB 852x480 based uganda.mp4)

Bernd 03/15/2022 (Tue) 19:52:01 [Preview] No.46948 del
There is no national politics, nowhere on the Earth, or only in very few countries. I see many people who lives in this delusion that somehow nationalism is relevant on any level. I understand their mistake, liberal and socialist propaganda always goes 100% about how everything nationalism's fault, even tho it's dead for over a 3/4 century now.
There is a demand for nationalism in the people and sometimes socialists/communists, and conservative liberals dress their movements, parties into national colors to make it appealing for many, whistling patriotic tunes for it.
That's been said involving women into politics not necessarily goes against nationalism. They have to be made invested in the fate of the community they are part of. They have to play willing part of the supporting structure that makes possible the resistance against outside group threats. Otherwise they become just spoils of war, with possible intentions to betray/sabotage the group if they get a better offer. So shit have to be figured out, involving them in the decision making process might be a way to go.

Perhaps he did not know who she was. I didn't know she existed before they made chief puppet of the EU out of her. News could travel slow in Africa.

Bernd 03/16/2022 (Wed) 13:24:39 [Preview] No.46954 del
It seems you misunderstood: I was talking about 'national' not 'nationalist' politics.
What I mean is that the scope over which a woman's leadership role can be useful is way way below the 'national' level: at the level of 'children & kitchen', so to speak. But, more charitably, it can be OK to have them take care of that stupid 'people work' at the communal or municipal level. Over here lots of bored menopausic women get involved into community organizing, neighbor associations, school committees and such bullshit. That can also feed into higher-level politics, but as long as it is kept in check I think that is fine.
>They have to play willing part of the supporting structure
Sure but women are made to follow not to lead. This is a biological invariant. The way in which they will find a part to play in the structure is by being given a place where to fit, where to accommodate themselves, not by being given the reins of the structure. Women who think they are the pack leaders invariably behave badly. And they will never inspire strong men to follow.

Bernd 03/16/2022 (Wed) 14:16:49 [Preview] No.46955 del
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It was a woman who created the British empire.

Bernd 03/17/2022 (Thu) 15:47:11 [Preview] No.46966 del
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Fake and gay. You might have AIDS.

Bernd 04/03/2022 (Sun) 17:27:52 [Preview] No.47143 del
Today parliamentary election day.
They just closed voting and started counting. No exit poll this year, preliminary results are expected after 11pm. I dunno if I'll stay up til that, so I probably see it tomorrow.
Here's the ballot of the party lists. From left to right:
- the united opposition, basically most opposing parties that matter, socialists, liberals, plus Jobbik
- NÉP - Party of Normal Life, no idea, just made in the past years
- Double Tailed Dog Party, joke party they have a chance to get into the Parliament, they were predicted just below the 5% threshold
- MEMO - Solution Movement, party of some oligarch, made for the election.
- Mi Hazánk - the splinter party from Jobbik, national radical
- Fidesz-KDNP, well, Bernd knows

Bernd 04/03/2022 (Sun) 19:48:07 [Preview] No.47145 del
At the moment (processed: 36% party lists, 50% constituencies), the 199 seats are divided:
- 134 Fidesz (over 2/3)
- 57 united opposition
- 8 Mi Hazánk

Bernd 04/03/2022 (Sun) 20:31:20 [Preview] No.47146 del
57% party list, 70% constituency:
- 134 seats Fidesz
- 58 seats united opposition
- 7 seats Mi Hazánk

2022 Hungarian Parliamentary Election Results Bernd 04/04/2022 (Mon) 08:46:07 [Preview] No.47149 del
Here we go.

Turnout: 69.54%

Constituencies: 106
- Fidesz: 88 seats
- United opposition: 18 seats

Party lists:
- Fidesz: 53,1% - 47 seats
- United opposition: 35% - 38 seats
- Mi Hazánk: 6.17% - 7 seats

Fidesz 135 seats (over 2/3)
United opposition: 56 seats
Mi Hazánk: 7 seats

So, whole country is in Fidesz orange now, except Budapest (which was always a liberal bastion), Szeged and Pécs, two county seats in the countryside.
While the united opposition was, well, united in the effort against the governing Fidesz, the six member parties get seats on their own. It seems both Jobbik and MSZP lost seats, while Párbeszéd (Dialogue, a green, leftlib party) gained. The loss of the Jobbik mostly is due to the Mi Hazánk (Our Homeland), the mentioned splinter party, the radical wing who left Jobbik, and who are now a power in the parliament on their own right.
But this also shows that left-liberal sentiment in the country is minor (the no-voters who are 30% of the voters cannot be considered that either).

I think the opposition candidate for the PM, Márki-Zay Péter, will be forgotten quick. All the opposition parties will push their own agenda. And until 2026 who knows what's gonna happen.

In parallel with the election a referendum also took place, by the initiative of the Fidesz. It had four questions:
1. Do you support such classes in school where they show sexual orientations for children without the consent of the parents?
2. Do you support the popularization of sex change treatment among children?
3. Do you support the unregulated showing of media content which can influence the sexual development of children?
4. Do you support of showing media content for children that depicts sex change treatment.
Votes are overwhelmingly went for No by every question. However the referendum did not get enough valid votes to become binding.

Bernd 04/04/2022 (Mon) 15:36:37 [Preview] No.47154 del
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Seems the media fudged the polls again. That's a much greater lead than they were projecting ~2 weeks ago. Even increased the supermajority.
>the opposition candidate for the PM, Márki-Zay Péter, will be forgotten quick
Funny dude. He paid lip service to the Clinton bitch and went on to lose his own district
>However the referendum did not get enough valid votes to become binding.
Interesting, I thought the child-protection law was already in place

Bernd 04/04/2022 (Mon) 16:01:56 [Preview] No.47155 del
He can't be that patriotic if he was living and working in the US. I don't trust politicians like that, well I don't trust any politician really but still.

Bernd 04/04/2022 (Mon) 18:18:07 [Preview] No.47156 del
I forgot that the German Minority Municipality also gained a mandate. All those grey "parties" ending with Ö, are minority municipalities.

If I understood correctly Márki-Zay has the option either to sit in the parliament, or remain as mayor. In the parliament he would be just one bloke among many, who doesn't even have his own party. But back in his town he's the boss. The problem with that is, that mayors rarely make into national news.
And now both Jobbik and DK already shifting the blame on him.
>child-protection law was already in place
It is. I'm not sure why this referendum was needed at all. I assume that it was just the part of the campaign one more tool of the Fidesz. They used it to demonize the opposition that they want to chop the weewees of all Hungarian little boys or whatever. And basically:
>We won't allow the globohomo to touch our children! Vote for us!

I think working and living abroad could even turn someone into a patriot. One of our great reformers of the 19th came to the realization that the country is in pressing need of modernization after he traveled west in his young adulthood (especially the visit in England had huge impact on him). Previously he was just an aristocrat in the court, enjoyed the life the wealth of his family granted to him. I don't think it is an impossibility, perhaps it's rare.
Now specifically Márki-Zay. I dunno if he's a patriot, he considers himself conservative, patriotism can overlap with that.
>I don't trust any politician really

Bernd 04/05/2022 (Tue) 18:54:27 [Preview] No.47159 del
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Hungarian government spending of the EU funds is gonna get investigated by the EU Commission. Probably not the Commission itself, but some committee entrusted. The result would be cutting EU funding. The whole thing is called "rule-of-law standards" investigation, and justified by the claims about rampant corruption. To be honest there is rampant corruption.
On the other hand I suspect corruption is just the same (or even bigger) in the rest of the EU, I guess the main difference is that while Orbán and co. passes all the fat EU money bags to their friends and family, in the civilized west those in politics aren't the ones who are doing favors due to their own authoroty, they just puppets of influental interest groups and economical powers. Besides would anyone give govt funding to those who aren't in bed with them, for those who are closer to the opposition?
Here the opposition bitch an moan about the corruption, but they did the same, and would do the same.
The result will be the same as with the sanctions. Putin now can point to evil west how they want to choke Russia, and he can be the hero defending the nation. Orbán can (and will) do this too (actually continue to do this), the champion of the people who stands up for them against evil Brussels. And he'll need unifying words and every bit of support, because the economic situation now isn't a joke, and the treatment won't be pleasant. But he'll be able to conveniently shift the blame to Brussels for every inconvenience, and strict measures.
Problem is Hungarian citizens and entrepreneurs will drink the black soup.
I wonder how much the HUF will fall by tomorrow morning.

Bernd 04/07/2022 (Thu) 04:55:09 [Preview] No.47164 del
I'm not very acquainted with Hungary. How have they managed to maintain being an independent state for so long (barring times with Austria)?

Bernd 04/07/2022 (Thu) 08:19:11 [Preview] No.47165 del
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In the first five centuries of Hungarian statehood, Hungary was a power equal to the strongest feudal kingdoms of Europe. This is why it meant much for the Habsburgs when they acquired it, even in the beginning that particular Habsburg wasn't emperor of the HRE, just king of Hungary, and then fate(?) arranged that the two become the same.
Meanwhile however came the Ottomans from the south, through the Balkans, and managed to conquer the third of the country, and made vassal from another third of it (Transylvania). So the country became marginalized, and a subordinate for the HR emperor. Indeed it became more of a liability, a constant warzone instead of a reliable power base. For the wars, the dividedness, and the feudal stagnation Hungary was left behind by those powers who made themselves rich during the colonization period.
Slowly the rest of the country was regained from the Ottomans, and in the 19th century even modernization started. There were always struggles with the Habsburgs to get the country out under the thumb of the imperial court, and make it stand on its feet as a kingdom on own right. These can be considered struggles of centralization vs. decentralization, and independence movements too. The war of independence in 1848-49, and later the circumstances in foreign and domestic politics forced the Habsburgs to acknowledge Hungary as an equal partner in their state, this is how Austro-Hungarian Empire was born.
Some economical progress and modernization happened, but the construct fell apart at the end of WWI. We found ourselves alone. The kingdom itself was torn apart, not just the Habsburg state. The Habsburg monarchs were dethroned too, the ties were severed, we became independent.
But turbulent times came ahead, and independence became precarious. The Germans extended their influence over the whole region, the facts that the Anglo-Saxons were too far, Italy was actually weak, and everyone shat their pants from the Soviet Union, helped them a lot. So we marched into war on the German side and lost. We became a vassal of the Soviet Union, until it crumbled.
Our people were told that we have to join the EU because there is no life outside of it, so we turned back to lick the German bottom once again.
This is the short history of Hungarian independence. But I want to note a couple of things.

Post's theme song:
https://youtube.com/watch?v=Iz-fVn2GVuQ [Embed]
Picrels are some monuments erected to honor Hungarian independence.

Bernd 04/07/2022 (Thu) 11:28:54 [Preview] No.47167 del
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The independence of a country can be measured by three things:
1. finance;
2. foreign politics;
3. military affairs.
If these three are controlled by the country, then that country is independent.

Our monetary politics, the finance, economy, trade, etc. are hugely controlled by the EU. EU members have to give up their economic freedom to open up for the other members. The goal of the EU was to create a common market. This is the whole point. Members still have decisions they can make themselves, but there are hard limits on what they can do, and everything has to comply to EU regulations. Plus we can't control what's literally monetary: the Hungarian Forint is pegged to the Euro, so we can't do with it whatever we want (imagine the countries without their own currency but having the Euro instead). By default at the first point our country fails to be independent for this thing.
In the Habsburg empire it was the same, Austria-Hungary was the same in this question. We weren't independent back then, we aren't now.

Our foreign politics also have hard limits, on one hand there is the EU and it's economical dealings with outsiders, but the final boss is actually the NATO and the US on the top. We can't do whatever we want because we have to contemplate those interests first, and only then if there is a leeway.
So the military affairs influence the foreign politics, and the economical ties too. In Austria-Hungary this was the same. We weren't independent back then, we aren't now.

But this is a lesson for the EU too. It aspires to become a sovereign country, but she also has hard limits in foreign politics: it's the same NATO and US which binds it. Just look at what is going on now, US whistles EU jumps. Or that French butthurt when the Australians ditched the submarine deal for the American one, when they could do nothing, called back the ambassadors, then sent it back couple weeks later. Impotence.
So EU needs to take her military affairs in her own hand, if she wants to be the master of its own foreign politics, and be actually an independent state.
Some even wants to abolish the members states, that way creating that supra-state above everyone in here. Which would be still subordinated by American interests

Bernd 04/07/2022 (Thu) 17:13:56 [Preview] No.47169 del
There are too many differing agendas within the EU to have a viable foreign policy. Just look at Ukraine, not every country in the EU is actually sending weapons and they all have differing ideas on the degree that the should sanction Russia, even though Russia is a threat they all agree on. And then there is France that is doing her own thing in Africa and the Pacific without caring about anybody else anyway.

The problem is they all have their own agendas, particularly France because France still has colonies, over a million French citizens live in French colonies in the pacific. Poland is not going to want to pay for a French Aircraft carrier to defend French interests and France isn't going to want to scrap her navy to focus on her Army to defend Poland.

As for the broken sub deal, Australia might have to pay 5.5 Billion Dollars for that.

Bernd 04/07/2022 (Thu) 19:03:02 [Preview] No.47170 del
The EU isn't a country to have foreign policy. There is no domestic policy either, just economical (and related) regulations, for example there is no common health institutions, the pandemic was taken care individually and any cooperation was done inter-government basis.
But the EU tries to look like a state, a country. Now they are punishing countries that deemed to be out of the line by the central committee. They try to find common ground to act together as one body. Earlier this year they voted that to regulate foreign relations in the name of all members they don't need unanimous decisions, a simple majority is enough, and the rest have to follow the line.
And some dream about that United States of Europe. No Poland or France in that one.

Bernd 04/08/2022 (Fri) 20:11:11 [Preview] No.47178 del
Márki-Zay announced he remains the mayor of Hódmezővásárhely instead of becoming a rep in the national assembly.
On the road of getting forgotten.

Dutch bernd Bernd 04/09/2022 (Sat) 03:41:07 [Preview] No.47199 del
>This is why it meant much for the Habsburgs when they acquired it,

tbh it feels like the Habsburgs wanted to OWN all of Europe at one point

Bernd 04/09/2022 (Sat) 06:00:14 [Preview] No.47200 del
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Bernd 04/09/2022 (Sat) 14:59:21 [Preview] No.47201 del
That was their plan for a long while.

They had another motto, or a saying actually. Something liek:
>let others war, Austria you just marry

Bernd 04/09/2022 (Sat) 15:18:05 [Preview] No.47203 del
It was 'Let others wage war. You, happy Austria, marry' which was said by Matthias Corvinus.

Bernd 04/09/2022 (Sat) 16:41:51 [Preview] No.47205 del
Actually, it was in Latin. But yes, I wasn't sure about the exact saying.
I highly doubt it was said by Mathias I. It's not something he would contemplate about, despite his not so fortunate marriages.

Bernd 04/10/2022 (Sun) 14:51:31 [Preview] No.47212 del
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Here's the final count of the seats.

French Presidential Elections Bernd 04/11/2022 (Mon) 07:12:08 [Preview] No.47213 del
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France is electing a new Prez. It will most likely be whom they already have.
The two main candidates are the bloke who sometimes says uncomfortable things and has mommy issues, the other is the woman with the hot daughter (who might not be in the politics anymore I think).
Macron is run by the party La République En Marche, which is more like a classical liberal party, not the mainstream leftlib of our day, without being conservative.
Le Pen is the founder of Rassemblement National, a national conservative party, which probably called Nazi all the time despite all these kind of parties in Europe are 100% Pro-Jewish and Pro-Israeli.
There is a third possible candidate just because Paris can't get enough of the Commune, the socialist Jean-Luc Mélenchon.

It's an election with two rounds, first they vote on the candidate, then they vote again on the two top candidates.
First round turnout was ~74.5%.
Macron leads with a solid ~27.5%
Le Pen follows with ~23.5%
Mélenchon holds ~22% of the votes.

This could change the data isn't processed in full yet. However no matter who comes in second, the winner most likely be Macron.

Beyond the first three there is one more notable group, the Reconquete party, which supposed to be even more far-right than the RN. Now they got 7% of the votes. Not nearly enough "far right" voters in France, and the supporters of the other parties will vote against them. Now I believe Macron's victory is sure.
Interestingly France doesn't have a strong green party, unlike Germany.

Bernd 04/20/2022 (Wed) 21:09:43 [Preview] No.47298 del
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East Timor had a presidential election and the winner is this perfectly Portuguese-looking politician with a Portuguese name. According to Wikipedia he's half-Portuguese.

Bernd 04/22/2022 (Fri) 12:44:00 [Preview] No.47317 del
East Timor was Portuguese colony?

Bernd 04/22/2022 (Fri) 13:54:28 [Preview] No.47320 del
Elections in the weekend. About the 1st tour:
- Unsurprising: Macron and Le Pen to decide
- Surprising: Mélenchon doing much better than merdias prognosticated (ended up within 2% of the 2nd round); he's supposed to be a non-establishment socialist, which means the MSM treated him basically like lideral gommie
- Le Pen got significantly closer to Macron in the last few weeks of the 1st round
- Conversely, based conservative but zionist berber jewgoblin Zemmour dropped off a cliff
For the 2nd, Macron still most likely to win:
- Lots of candidates are just like exotic flavours in an ice-cream store. It is a stratagem: it is known that they have 0% chance of succeeding, but they are still offered in order to appeal to greatest possible share of voters, after inevitably failing in the 1st round they will all (or almost all) cast they support with the establishment candidate d'jour (Macron)
- Mélenchon voters unlikely to support Le Pen ("conservative nationalist" that spent the last several years compromising on most of the principles of the party she inherited from her father, in an effort to appeal to the same (((banker class))) that brought Macron to power). Also unlikely to support Macron much, but at worst for him that just leaves him with his current advantage over Le Pen
- Zemmour voters will support Le Pen but he didn't do very well so it might not be very significant
- Unsurprising: MSM treat Le Pen basically like the MSM treated Trump or more recently Orbán, and Mélenchon like the MAGAtards treat Biden: "russian agent this", "chinese agent that", "putin this", "xi that". Uninspired trite propaganda, its_all_so_tiresome.gif
- EU joined the fray last week accusing Le Pen of corruption and, thus, casting its coin towards Macron
- Just yesterday there was blatant foreign meddling with the PMs of Germany, Spain, and Portugal openly campaigning for Macron in the msm Le monde (!)
One thing that could have shaken things up was the economy. If shit hit the fan, it could have spur people to vote against Macron. The already existing economic problems were among the reasons why Le pen got closer to Macron. But precisely because of that EU is waiting until after the elections to decide whether to expand the economic war to russian energy (Macron is in favour). Also why France has been a bit less boisterous towards Russia with military supplies to Kiev. (Btw, Macron agreed with Putin in calling Russians and Ukrainians "brothers".) However, after the elections it is likely that this will shift to a harsher stance (for sure if Macron wins, a bit less likely if Le Pen wins, but even so after a while the "deep state" will probably get her to toe the line too): arming ukr might be sold, in part, as response for russian mercenaries operating in some african ex-colonies like Mali
Le Pen would offer a more sane immigration policy and possibly a more interesting and somewhat more sovereign foreign policy (for a few months until they get to her). The game is rigged, though, fat chance. There's also the issue of her two X chromosomes... just see Sweden and Binlan, dripping wet desperate to get their cunts conquered by the big fat NATO blob.

Bernd 05/01/2022 (Sun) 23:21:12 [Preview] No.47396 del
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It was far away and barely settled from Europe, I wouldn't expect Portuguese phenotypes there.

In other news, Lula's first round lead over Bolsonaro has reduced in the polls but remains wide in the second round. Moro dropped his presidential bid. Lula's VP is Geraldo Alckmin, one of the main opposition figures in his time, who he ran against in 2006. However, his rhetoric has been more to the radical side.

Bernd 05/02/2022 (Mon) 20:29:48 [Preview] No.47403 del
So young vote on socialist, middle aged right, old Macron maybe all the grannies hope he will shag them too.
How this correlates with ethnicity and religion? I'd assume in the younger age bracket the ratio black/arabic/muslim population is larger.

Bernd 05/02/2022 (Mon) 20:38:22 [Preview] No.47404 del
The Amazon will pass lotsa water till October. Still something can happen that brings the election back from the grave for Bolsonaro.

Bernd 05/03/2022 (Tue) 01:29:14 [Preview] No.47405 del
On the Internet I've heard small talk about Lula dropping his bid.

Bernd 05/03/2022 (Tue) 07:06:56 [Preview] No.47407 del
That however sounds like wishful thinking. On the other hand he is old and fat, covid could take him out. Or a heart attack.

Bernd 05/04/2022 (Wed) 01:00:58 [Preview] No.47418 del
Theoretically he would drop out in favor of a placeholder candidate of the likes of Dilma and Haddad. Still no real evidence for it, just wild speculation.

Bernd 05/08/2022 (Sun) 08:20:59 [Preview] No.47461 del
Legislative election of Northern Ireland was held on last Thursday. It's for the local assemblly the "Stormont", how they call it, not for the UK Parliament.
The fate of 90 seats was decided.
Turnout 63%
Sinn Fein gained the most seats, 27 of them and become the party with the most representatives. They did not gain more than last time, but the main rival the Democratic Unionist Party lost seats, and the one called Alliance gained a lot.
I know next to nothing about these parties, ofc I have some ideas about the Sinn Fein, which had close cooperation with the IRA back in the day. But know who knows who they are, what they want. The Unionists ofc are pro-UK, and pro-Brexit, the Alliance seems to be pro-EU. And I assume Sinn Fein too, due to strong ties to the Republic of Ireland. But if they want to secede from the UK, and join to the rest of the island? Is this what they have for the long run?

Bernd 05/21/2022 (Sat) 04:45:43 [Preview] No.47627 del
Election in Australia today, we had a state election not long ago, this is a federal election.

Both parties are basically the same, it doesn't even matter. But we will see how many non-majors get seats this time.

Bernd 05/22/2022 (Sun) 12:29:49 [Preview] No.47641 del
They are still counting votes. But Labour won so we are getting a new Prime minister called Anthony Albanese, I'll wait for the final results to say more.

Bernd 05/22/2022 (Sun) 16:36:22 [Preview] No.47644 del
A CPAC was held on the Hungary. USA midterm elections are coming up in November, so campaign all year. What's weird is they campaigning with Hungary. Both country an Orbán returns in their news. Liberals foaming just makes him more recognized, popular, and influential.

From Scottish Alba?

Bernd 05/22/2022 (Sun) 16:46:11 [Preview] No.47645 del
I looked him up and apparently it's an Italian name for people from Albania or something. It's from his dad but his dad separated with his mother before or shortly around his birth or something. He's also from a fairly poor background raised by a single mum in public housing and it said he was part of the hard left of the Labour Party and was head of a young labour group when he was young that kept in touch with the Australian communists and such. I don't like this....

Bernd 05/22/2022 (Sun) 17:21:33 [Preview] No.47646 del
Yes, Alba is a Latin name. Scotts themselves never called that place like that unless clerical education.

Bernd 06/21/2022 (Tue) 11:24:06 [Preview] No.48045 del
>the government will disband, and the country will hold elections for the fifth time in three years.
>With a razor-thin parliamentary majority and divisions on major policy issues such as Palestinian statehood, Israel’s occupation of the West Bank, and issues concerning religion and the state, the alliance began to fracture when a handful of members defected.
Well, Haaretz is paywalling the articles, so:
>inability to pass the Judea and Samaria emergency bill, which is composed of temporary injunctions applying Israeli law to Jews in the West Bank.
Since they occupied the West Bank, it was only sources of problems. I don't believe they couldn't solve it, in whatever way, if there was a will. I assume it's better having problems with that, instead from other sources.

Bernd 06/21/2022 (Tue) 23:59:25 [Preview] No.48049 del
Two Jews, three opinions.

Bernd 06/22/2022 (Wed) 08:01:12 [Preview] No.48052 del
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At minimum.

I looked up the governments of Israel because I was curious how frequently it changed hands. I have to look further to see how many elections they had, how many govts failed before their mandate run out. Also it seem customary to "time share" the office of the PM, between coalition partners.

1948-1977 Mapai (till '68, then) Labor, 29 years
1977-1984 Herut (till '88, then) Likud, 7 years
1984-1986 Labor, 2 years
1986-1992 Likud, 6 years
1992-1996 Labor, 1 years
1996-1999 Likud, 3 years
1999-2001 Labor, 2 years
2001-2005 Likud, 4 years
2005-2009 Kadima, 4 years
2009-2021 Likud, 12 years

Mapai was Ben-Gurion's Worker's Party, with the merger of other parties it became the Labor Party.
Simlarly Herut was the main conservative nationalist party of Begin, and gave the basis of Likud when Begin and Sharon formed that.
Kadima was formed by the "moderate" liberal wing of Likud. So essentially Likud.
Basically since 1977 the right-wing rules the Knesset, wish smaller breaks. There was a term when Labor and Likud formed a grand coalition in the '80s.

The Patriot Dilemma Bernd 06/24/2022 (Fri) 10:47:19 [Preview] No.48065 del
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I'm thinking about a thing that I might call The Patriot Dilemma. It's important to note it's not The Patriot's Dilemma, because it can concerns citizens of a country, regardless of their patriotic feelings, they might not have any, or they can be nationalists, which is different than simple patriotism. I wouldn't call this a Citizen's Dilemma either because it sounds too generic, and the problem do related to patriotism.

Right now, I'll give a tl;dr, but the situation is more complex, with many moving parts, and probably the topic has quite a few sidetracks, which might worth to check out or might not. I'll try not to get lost in the details, and give just enough to make it clear what I want to convey (most likely still will write more than I should).

Let's say a given country has a political system, most of the citizens are just fine with it, they work, live in the system, they make it work, they maintain it. Some of the citizens however think the system doesn't work for the people, or they think certain elements are needed to be changed, or the people in charge has to be switched with others. There could be legal ways to do it, those who want the change might see them as viable options, might not for whatever reasons.
The changes they want to enact however, would be aligned with the interests of foreign powers (at least one stronger power), maybe even it would be a goal of theirs too to change that.
Knowing that the changes would benefit an outside force, should those citizens act on their beliefs? Should they seek foreign support for their cause? Should they accept foreign support without asking it? Would they know if their comrades in arms act on foreign influence? Should the preservation of current system and sovereignty matters more than their belief that they have the right opinion about the country's system and future? Should they continue to participate in a system they deem bad/corrupt/broken/etc?
What if the present regime also serves a foreign interest (to a varying level)? What if a foreign power was active participants in the formation of the current system?

I hope Bernd sees what I'm driving at, and could come up with real life examples the situation can occur.
I might refine the description, might not. I think it's adequate to start out.
I'm also curious if any professionals, politologists, historians thought about this.
I need better illustrations.

Bernd 06/27/2022 (Mon) 20:27:18 [Preview] No.48084 del
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>Knowing that the changes would benefit an outside force, should those citizens act on their beliefs? Should they seek foreign support for their cause? Should they accept foreign support without asking it?

It depends on their cause. Avoiding change just because foreign power wants it looks similar to stop washing hands because bad people often do it too. Citizen must try to analyze why foreign power wants this change and think about consequences. Maybe it is benevolent change.

>Should the preservation of current system and sovereignty matters

Without specific details it is too broad question. Change in favor of foreign power doesn't always mean losing sovereignty. System may use this argument to preserve itself, but system isn't neutral about that matter.

There is another thing: in modern world local government, even not influenced by outsiders (let's imagine that this is possible), often similarly foreign to average citizen as truly foreign government. Although it happened in past too, like in Western European feudal times, when average peasant didn't see much difference between different lords, because they always want to extort peasant's good and nothing more. So original question also has another aspect: do current system really represents these citizens? The less it represents them, the easier is the answer.

Bernd 07/12/2022 (Tue) 16:09:20 [Preview] No.48259 del
The polish "electrician" gave interview to the french media to demonstrate his tactful and intelligent west-liberal brand of polish diplomacy: (1) Russia should be reduced to less than 50M people. (2) But wait, he's smart, he doesn't advocate extermination but dismemberment and "liberation" of the other 95M of minorities (?). (3) Must impose "complete regime change". If not directly possible, organise a revolution. (4) Most people in the ex-ussr who resent Gorbachev do so because the dissolution of the union for which he was responsible led to a wretched period of economic misery, social decay, and political displacement (meaning millions of co-nationals [even families] suddenly finding themselves separated by country borders which used to be mere administrative divisions). Not Walesa. He instead chides Gorbachev for not having felled the Russia once and for all. (5) Shina bad.

This comes a few weeks after a USG committee, staffed with the usual assortment of US foreign-policy lobbyists and ethnic-grievance "experts", literally held a public panel on their need to dismember the russia. In fact, it's not just a "need" that they feel but a "moral and strategic imperative". Zero subtlety, just in case there was any doubt in the Kremlin about USA's designs for competing powers since the time of Wilson Woodrow at the latest.
Also, some amazing level of projection and shameless impudence in blaming Russia for: Syria (where they trained, armed, and promoted "moderate" head-choppers, invited in Al-Nusra/Al-Qaeda, and where they still illegally occupy ~1/3 of the country), Libya (??? shameless bastards), Georgia (a war provoked by Georgia, as corroborated by the EU, due to Saakashvili being emboldened by what he percieved as assurances from Nato; the 1st proxy war resulting from the 2008 Nato summit in Bucharest), Chechnya (where a bunch CIA-backed of ichkerian salafi terrorists were defeated by a coalition of russians and sufi islamic chechens), and finally Ukraine (said enough already >>47152; the 2nd proxy war as a result of the provocative 2008 Nato Bucharest summit).

>Sinn Fein, which had close cooperation with the IRA back in the day. But know who knows who they are, what they want.
These days, they pose next to fag flags promoting globohomo
>How this correlates with ethnicity and religion?
Traditional rural french stock for Le Pen (plus some overseas territories). Muslims and minorities mostly for Mélenchon. Rootless educated cosmopolitans regardless of ethnicity mostly for Macron.
>I'd assume in the younger age bracket the ratio black/arabic/muslim population is larger.
Yeah. According to estimates because publishing such race-profiled information is forbidden, so people rely on proxies like the kinds of names seen in birth certificates (e.g. "mohammed" -> arabic/muslim)

>>48218 >>48222
So, it seems the assassination of the ex japanese PM may be in fact related (indirectly) to Koreans. Specifically, to a christian sect founded by south korean self-proclaimed "messiah" Moon Sun Myung and called "Unification Church" (and informally "moonies"). This sect had close connection to Abe's infamous grandfather, Kishi Nobusuke, during the height of the Cold War, it has been advertised as an "anti-communist movement" (cold war; us puppets s.korea/japan; Moon's wife is apparently a nork), it is a well-known "donor" directly or through various front orgs to "conservative" politicians (including ofc many of the LDP), and boast of endorsements (paid for, in currency or status) by high-profile politicians like Abe, Trump (and Pompeo and Pence), spaniard Aznar, brazilian Temer, etc. More: the son-in-law of the moonies' "messiah" has been involved in a business-related lawsuit with Biden's junkie son Hunter.

Bernd 07/12/2022 (Tue) 16:29:25 [Preview] No.48260 del
>>48259 (continued)
As is usual with sects and cults, there are also claims of "human trafficking", "brainwashing" and "mind control" of subjects. Tbh, considering the geopolitical positioning of the sect, very pro-US hegemony, its cold-war origin, I would not be surprised in the least if they are either infiltrated/co-opted by or in service/partnership with western intelligence agencies. Spooks and religious cults are a very common association.
The mother of Yamagami Tetsuya, the 41yo shooter, was a member and she was apparently scammed by the church into giving them large sums of money, something which ruined the family. It seems likely at this point that Yamagami's act was at least partially motivated by Abe's promotion of that cult which lead some of his voters (possibly including Yamagami's mother) into the arms of the "church". Yamagami allegedly believed police would never prosecute the sect because of the powerful connections to the LDP/govt/Abe. (There are also unconfirmed rumours that Yamagami could have been a member of a splinter cell of the moonies called "Sanctuary Church", led by one of Moon's sons, and known for promoting rifle-armed militants. The SC denied it. Jap media however has claimed that Yamagami "practiced gun shooting" at a religious facility.)
For some more context/anecdotes, see the explanation/ranting of this man that claims he grew up within a moonie org in USA. He tells how the many front orgs of the UC ("anticommie", "world peace", "media freedom", etc.) are linked in a cycle of funds-funneling, influence-peddling, and suckers-recruitment. https://invidious.fdn.fr/watch?v=Q6Umfvb9TEQ

Meanwhile, the elections for which Abe was campaigning when killed took place. Japanese media, including the state media NHK, spent the days broadcasting eulogies for the dead, effectively making pro-ldp political advertisement. (Not a violation of jap electoral law?) However, all MSM coordinated to avoid bringing attention to the UC (referred to only as "a specific group"). I.e., they exploited the event for maximum empathy towards Abe/LDP and minimum scrutiny. And now that the election is over/won, media is trying to disassociate LDP/Abe from the UC, weaselwording about the supposedly "mistaken" or "unreliable" association, trying to shield them from bad publicity.

Ldp got a supermajority (still low turnout of 52%). Not a huge change IMO: dead abe or not, ldp has almost always dominated. However, I have noticed staple US regime media (nyt, wp) positively, or at least non-negatively, promoting the constitutional-amendment agenda and acting as if this particular supermajority "finally" enables them to do that, which is false. If this was the only requirement they could have done it in the past: the militarism of the Abe clan is not new at all and ldp has had the necessary seats in the past. I suspect that, in reality, what's probably happening is that the usa has basically signaled (perhaps even explicitly, in private, during some of their meetings, for example, recently among G7 or Nato) that they would approve and legally allow them to do so. Of course, one of the obvious conditions would be to have them confront china militarily. Apropos: the vice-president of the Taipei has made a point of visiting the Abe homestead to pay his respects to the late promoter of Taiwan secessionism.
Indeed, as anticipated (>>48071) Kishida has already stated that they would propose a constitutional amendment. Their constitution says "the Japanese people forever renounce war as a sovereign right of the nation". Considering this was drafted by USA there's already several funny "euphemisms" there. There's going to be a few more euphemisms and word-redefinitions if they amend it.
Btw, it should be noted that japan's "pacifist" constitution still enabled then to have one of the most powerful naval forces, not just in asia, but the world. Although they forbid foreign deployment, the so called "self-defense force" is made of real army, navy, and air force.

Bernd 07/12/2022 (Tue) 23:10:33 [Preview] No.48263 del
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Bernd 07/22/2022 (Fri) 01:03:13 [Preview] No.48348 del
To nobody's surprise. His party has a high chance of ruling the country until 2030, by then he will be old will have a weak successor.

Bernd 09/02/2022 (Fri) 02:22 [Preview] No.48635 del
(1.17 MB 480x848 Kirchner.mp4)
Assassination attempt on Argentina's vice-president.

Bernd 09/03/2022 (Sat) 12:56 [Preview] No.48647 del
She got away with the bullet tearing up her face? Lucky.

Bernd 09/04/2022 (Sun) 09:17 [Preview] No.48651 del
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Bernd 09/05/2022 (Mon) 01:51 [Preview] No.48655 del
Some are saying it was staged.


Bernd 09/05/2022 (Mon) 07:40 [Preview] No.48660 del
Could be. Govt. involvement could be very subtle too.
I skimmed two articles, both writing bs. But that's expected. I dunno, from this really can't say.
Playing one role during day, the other, night.
He shaved since then. Maybe someone told Orbán about the resemblance.

Dutch bernd Bernd 09/07/2022 (Wed) 03:08 [Preview] No.48664 del
oh dog Orbán looks different with a beard on.

That's the kind of look I'm trying to get, but I'm having issues growing my facial hair.

Bernd 09/07/2022 (Wed) 07:56 [Preview] No.48679 del
>I'm having issues growing my facial hair.
The curse of not enough Turan.

Bernd 09/13/2022 (Tue) 19:59 [Preview] No.48733 del
Sweden had general election last Sunday.
It's notable for two things.
One: the right opposition caught up to the left governing parties, overall gaining one less seats than those.
But more importantly two: the only party on the right that gained more seats than 2018 was the Sweden Democrats, which apparently a "Euro-skeptic" party. On the left the biggest Soc-Dem and the smallest Green party were capable of gaining more support. Kinda Moving along with Germany in this question.
I think this shows the crystallization of the left-liberal groups - supported by the current issues made fashionably by the mainstream media -, which has a smaller but committed opposition, and the middle ground fades into the background (I don't think it'll ever will entirely, situation will change).
All this has any real importance or impact? Meh, not really, we'll see how the future plays out.

Bernd 09/16/2022 (Fri) 20:45 [Preview] No.48749 del
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Recently the Orbán clique held it's yearly gathering, selected elites are invited close to the Fidesz' leadership attends these shindigs. At least one of them had loose lips however because Orbán's speech was leaked. Some might think it was leaked on purpose.
Few interesting things were told by the great leader, El Primo.
Foreign politics:
- Hungary will try to block the renewal for six months of the embargo against Russia
- the EU shot herself in the leg with the sanctions
- there is no leader of the EU who would realize the interest of the EU and act accordingly
- by 2030 the V4 will become net contributors to the EU budget, which means there will be very little to stay in the EU
- the V4 could be a new center of power, but the Ukraine conflict means a neuralgic point in their relations
- the Eurozone might fall apart by 2030, and maybe the EU herself too
- by 2040 the Muslims will be the majority in the Western cities
- will continue to build a conservative network
Internal politics:
- the Fidesz is preparing a new generation of Fidesz polititians who will be capable of governing up until 2060
- have to support families, have to increase population growth, have to bear more children
- have to preserve jobs and the worth of wages
- have to modernize the economy

>Since 2004 the settlement and the Dobozy Chateau hosts the Polgári Piknik meeting organized by the Polgári Magyarországért Alapítvány of the Christian-conservative elite. Leading figures of Hungarian life - politicians, thinkers, scientists, business people - gather together in the village for the event.

Meanwhile small companies/enterprises are closing down because can't pay the utility bill. People get bills which is way over their pay, facing losing their homes.
Entrepreneurship was always week in this country, but at least most people were owners. Now everyone will be wagie and tenant. Western companies and Fidesz oligarchs will own everything.

Bernd 09/20/2022 (Tue) 23:39 [Preview] No.48771 del
The first round of the general elections happens next week and Bolsonaro still loses by a wide margin in polls for the second round. Some older polls on geographical and demographic patterns show him losing all regions except for his strongholds. He still wins among Protestants, wealthier or older voters, but not even among men, and, what I find notable, not among voters with a higher education - in the last eleciton, his votes were positively correlated with education. Though Lula still wins among the barely functionally illiterate.

Bernd 09/22/2022 (Thu) 11:02 [Preview] No.48780 del
Maybe the bad news will move less political people who would prefer Bolso; or those who really don't want Lula.
>Though Lula still wins among the barely functionally illiterate.
In other words: landslide victory.

Bernd 09/25/2022 (Sun) 15:14 [Preview] No.48794 del
I mean, I wouldn't say "leader of Europe". I'm sure Hungary has its fair share of problems too. Mayb solve those first

Bernd 09/25/2022 (Sun) 18:21 [Preview] No.48805 del
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Well, that t-shirt is 100% fanboyism. I don't mind as long as it's a meme on imageboard, but while I'd like to see Hungarians ruling Europe, Orbán wouldn't be my pick as a representative of ours. These people with these clothing, are tied to the Fidesz in one way or another.
Fun fact the first bloke is a guy living in the US, and who founded a Fidesz group in New York. The bold one is a Hungarian rock vocalist.

Bernd 09/27/2022 (Tue) 20:52 [Preview] No.48828 del
Giorgia Meloni and the Fratelli d'Italia won the Italian snap election. They grew up from a 4% party. Media calls them neo-fascists, and first far-right party that has the chance to govern since Mussolini. They have a "Eurosceptic" stance, also support sending arms to Ukraine (in opposition Salvini and Berlusconi, the two potential coalition partner).
Their rise might have interesting effects. We'll see.
I want to look into this more, so this is basically a reminder.

Article in Hungarian:

Dutch bernd Bernd 09/29/2022 (Thu) 14:45 [Preview] No.48849 del
ngl she looked like she was raly cute when she was younger.

>Their rise might have interesting effects. We'll see.

Any Italian bernd that can describe current Italian settis?

Bernd 10/03/2022 (Mon) 07:45 [Preview] No.48885 del

Bernd 10/03/2022 (Mon) 20:17 [Preview] No.48891 del
Hungary is doing a census. Can be done online. Maybe gonna make a report about it.

Bernd 10/04/2022 (Tue) 12:28 [Preview] No.48896 del
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Giorgia Meloni apparently used to post anime art of herself. I always find it funny when famous or semi famous people do this, because most of the time they look worse then their anime version. A polish singer did that not so long ago to advertise her music.
Also its likely Mussoilini's grandson will become member of EU parliament.
Sadly /kc/ lack representation from Italy to give us more insider info.

Bernd 10/04/2022 (Tue) 17:01 [Preview] No.48902 del
It's fanime, she's just going with the flow. Her fans are weeaboo fart-right chanpeople.
>Caius Julius Caesar Mussolini
I want him in the European Parliament. That would be the best decision from the Italian people since ever.

Bernd 10/04/2022 (Tue) 20:33 [Preview] No.48904 del
I think Meloni is an anime person herself but thats second hand info.

Bernd 10/05/2022 (Wed) 01:11 [Preview] No.48905 del
Not that bad for Bolsonaro, he outperformed the polls, candidates backing him on state elections won many votes and centrist and right-wing parties dominate Congress. If he wins the second round, which I still think is unlikely to happen, he'll be stronger than on his first mandate. Will write more on this later.

Bernd 10/05/2022 (Wed) 01:32 [Preview] No.48907 del
That's cool, left image looks like it's from an anime not fan art though.

>I want him in the European Parliament. That would be the best decision from the Italian people since ever

With a name like that, what could possibly go wrong?

Bernd 10/05/2022 (Wed) 05:59 [Preview] No.48908 del
You mean that irl person is an avatar of the anime person? Sounds logical. When she's too old to represent, can just discard and get a new one.

It is p good considering. I dunno what's the trend with 2nd round votes, if there is any, but he might even close on Lula further. Seeing that only a "couple" of votes are needed might move his voterbase. On the other hand seeing that Bolsonaro has a chance, more people will go to vote on Lula.

I'd prefer
>Caius Julius Caesar Medici Mussolini

Bernd 10/07/2022 (Fri) 01:45 [Preview] No.48915 del
>It is p good considering. I dunno what's the trend with 2nd round votes, if there is any, but he might even close on Lula further. Seeing that only a "couple" of votes are needed might move his voterbase. On the other hand seeing that Bolsonaro has a chance, more people will go to vote on Lula.
Lula's voters were hyped for a 1st round victory, which was possible in some polls. Now everyone is on edge. If Bolsonaro wins, he'll have a stronger base in Congress. Lula's left-wing base has less than a third of seats, but he'll find a way to bribe the center. Left-wing parties can be clearly identified, but everything else is increasingly hard to describe looking at parties alone. Because of his political incompetence, Bolsonaro failed to form a party of his own and is temporarily in the PL, a typical "physiological" party without any ideology, only clientelism. Bolsonaristas have swelled the party's ranks and made it the largest one in Congress, but they'll migrate to another as soon as their leader doesn't need the party anymore. Historically it was even allied to Lula. Most of the other non-leftist parties are similarly confusing and will include both consistently anti-Lula factions and the amorphous centrists waiting for their share of the budget to join the government. There's a tendency of consolidation into larger parties, but they aren't getting any less confusing.

The post-2006 north-south electoral divide is still in place, but Lula gained a massive number of votes in the blue areas. Bolsonaro gained a smaller number in red country. Inter-regional hate is as strong as ever, ironically given how Bolsonaro's margin is small in blue country. Also notable is how Ciro Gomes took a nosedive, even in his home state. Lula's political offensives demolished his place in the left.

Bernd 10/07/2022 (Fri) 09:08 [Preview] No.48917 del
That 8% fall in Rio state is quite large, but that 5% in Sao Paolo is even larger, due to number of electorates, double the lost.
All in all still Lula is expected to win, no?

Bernd 10/19/2022 (Wed) 21:36 [Preview] No.49051 del
Liz Truss' most inclusive govt is falling apart. Two PoC ministers were replaced to two white blokes. And Truss herself faces the same fate. To be honest I'm not sure if anyone could do better in current situation, especially since I believe there is a limit on what they are allowed to do by themselves, and not just serving certain interests.

Bernd 10/21/2022 (Fri) 10:55 [Preview] No.49060 del
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fugging banana republic or shall I say kohl republic

Bernd 10/22/2022 (Sat) 06:37 [Preview] No.49062 del
Why lettuce?

Bernd 10/22/2022 (Sat) 16:54 [Preview] No.49069 del
buy some kohl and let it in the fridge for a couple of weeks. it's either still kohl or it turned to kraut, so it's edible either way.

Dutch bernd Bernd 10/23/2022 (Sun) 15:44 [Preview] No.49079 del
Is this a real picture from the TV?

Bernd 10/24/2022 (Mon) 09:44 [Preview] No.49084 del
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it's a tabloid who made this as joke at the beginning of the term of I already forgot her name. the lettuce survived and rightfully deserves a Gregg's sausage roll.

Bernd 10/24/2022 (Mon) 11:16 [Preview] No.49085 del
Is it lettuce because the words slightly resembles to liz truss? Or because there is more brain in a head of lettuce than in hers?

Bernd 10/26/2022 (Wed) 02:13 [Preview] No.49095 del
>All in all still Lula is expected to win, no?
Indeed, and he's still a few points ahead in the polls, but there's a chance he'll lose. This would be the first ever turnaround from a first round defeat to a second round victory for a presidential candidate.

The wackiest event in this year's political circus took place last sunday. Roberto Jefferson, a pro-Bolsonaro politician under house arrest for threats/disinformation (I'll have to write more later on this "fake news" question and the electoral authorities' effort to enact censorship/save democracy from disinformation), was to be taken away to regular arrest by order from Supreme Court justice Alexandre de Moraes, who has been Bolsonaro's nemesis in the past few years. Jefferson had ignored instructions to stay off social media and called another justice, Cármen Lúcia, a whore and a prostitute, and "Carmen Lúcifer". Federal policemen arrived to take him into custody, but he opened fire and threw grenades, wounding two of them. Some hours after they retreated, a pro-Bolsonaro presidential candidate, "Father Kelmon" (a priest in some meme Peruvian Orthodox church), gave away his guns. Jefferson turned himself in. He has apologized to prostitutes for comparing them with Carmen Lúcia.

Bernd 10/27/2022 (Thu) 09:22 [Preview] No.49099 del
>but there's a chance he'll lose.
I don't think he will.
>house arrest for threats/disinformation
>"fake news" question
This disinformation bs comes from the US too. Except there it remains on the level of media wankery. The legal frame of defamation (libel and such) already exists, this fake news fad really is just about censorship.
>instructions to stay off social media
>Cármen Lúcia, a whore and a prostitute, and "Carmen Lúcifer"
>apologized to prostitutes for comparing them with Carmen Lúcia
Good banter.
>he opened fire and threw grenades
>wounding two of them.
>Some hours after they retreated
He is a serious operator, forcing federales to flee.

Bernd 10/31/2022 (Mon) 01:52 [Preview] No.49124 del
>He is a serious operator, forcing federales to flee.
Obviously the policiais federais weren't expecting a politician to resist arrest with gunfire. And he himself only wanted to send a message, he turned himself in later on. btw, Roberto Jefferson was the whistleblower in the mensalão scandal back in 2005.

>This disinformation bs comes from the US too. Except there it remains on the level of media wankery. The legal frame of defamation (libel and such) already exists, this fake news fad really is just about censorship.
Curiously, the term "fake news", lifted straight from English, is more common than the translation "notícias falsas", as if it's a new concept imported from the Anglophone world. I remember the media beginning to use it heavily and all at once in a single week back in Trump's election. Legally it should've been the same, what changes is only the way it spreads in the Information Age.
Bolsonaro's voters are the epitome of normality, but too many committed Bolsonaro activists are proud of their coarseness or anti-intellectualism, are in for the grift or are even just cynical. The rawest kind of fake news, easily disproven claims, circulates freely in their WhatsApp groups. Sometimes it's just plain threats, and there's no surprise they get suppressed. North-south regional hate also runs strong in every election.
Though of course, everyone engages in deception. Highly accredited media typically won't make outrageous claims without a factual basis, but it'll sideline or ignore inconvenient facts and misdirect consumers into believing what they want. Politicians also do it all the time, and political discourse is riddled with hyperbolic usage of heavy words such as genocide and dictatorship. Apparently Bolsonaro's handling of Covid is a genocide.
The Information Age crisis isn't just that there are alternative channels to accredited media, it's the noise overload discouraging truth-seeking and the erosion of informational reputation - accredited media is no longer universally trusted, but only accepted on sectarian lines. And they've got themselves to blame. Not to mention the people who consider themselves smarter than Bolsonaro's activists and place all their trust in accredited sources still fall for their fare share of easily disproven claims.

The courts, led by Alexandre de Moraes, have been strict in their suppression of fake news, but they aren't impartial and it gets worse when there are conflicts of interest. Back in 2019 Moraes forbid a news site from writing about a fellow Supreme Court justice's name cited in a corruption investigation. This was promptly condemned by accredited media, which called it censorship. But otherwise accredited media and the courts are part of the same power block.
Most of the "fake news" effort is directed to preserving the sanctity and prestige of electronic voting machines. Bolsonaro questioned their reliability since last year, I think that was coping in advance at a possible defeat (and now he did lose, but so far seems like he'll accept it). In part, he and his base are also LARPing as Trump. In turn, Alexandre de Moraes and the courts-media-centrist middle and upper class front are LARPing as the American deep state and Democrats. Though it makes sense that Bolsonaro is coping, I'm not pleased with how aggressively the voting system is defended. Bolsonaro's enemies are eager for a January 6 LARP so they can strike bolsonarismo hard, and have for a long time hyped a Bolsonaro coup d'état and their strong reaction to it.

Lula isn't Biden, he and this centrist front used to be enemies, but right now they're aligned; who knows what the future holds. He also seems to be favored by the United States and the "international community".

Bernd 10/31/2022 (Mon) 09:10 [Preview] No.49127 del
Where is the coup slash civil war I was promised? Why is Bolso such a sissy?

Bernd 11/04/2022 (Fri) 09:48 [Preview] No.49143 del
In fact i should have posted this in the joges thread. Missed opportunity.

Bernd 11/06/2022 (Sun) 16:49 [Preview] No.49155 del
>Roberto Jefferson
I find this name hilarious.

>heavy words such as genocide and dictatorship.
These find their ways into public talk and reputable media outlets despite they belong to the world sensationalist tabloids. And I think it's a complex problem, can create a "crying wolf" situation, emptying the any real substance until noone cares, and can develop the labeled to fit the label.
>it's the noise overload discouraging truth-seeking and the erosion of informational reputation
This topic interests Odili.
>accredited media is no longer universally trusted, but only accepted on sectarian lines.
I'm not sure they were ever universally trusted. It feels like they were. From Hungarian viewpoint foreign Western news agencies, liek BBC and Reuters were considered such. Or maybe I was just too young and naive to think they were, because my news "sources" back then gave this impression.

>This was promptly condemned by accredited media, which called it censorship. But otherwise accredited media and the courts are part of the same power block.
Sounds like media doing its job. Maybe wasn't censorship, but calling out a questionable decision is good.
>he and his base are also LARPing as Trump
Classic. After the Roe v. Wade "scandal" our govt also had to enact a modification of the abortion law, which means little in practice, but noise could be generated.

This. We want our habbening.

Bernd 11/07/2022 (Mon) 02:58 [Preview] No.49160 del
Bolsonaro's activists, particularly truckers, blame fraud for their loss, have blocked highways and some are even calling for a general strike. What do they even expect to achieve? Getting crushed by the Deep State LARPers? Some are already going down a spiral of radicalization and detachment from reality.

Lula's narrow victory is unprecedented, even narrower than Dilma's 2014 victory. Bolsonaro would have won if he were slightly less retarded.

Bernd 11/08/2022 (Tue) 12:06 [Preview] No.49167 del
Turnout seems consistent and fairly high.
Bolso is accepting the result? How they communicating their loss to the public?

Bernd 11/08/2022 (Tue) 20:34 [Preview] No.49180 del
Brazil has compulsory voting by law.
So a turnout of ~80% means 20% are breaking the law.

Bernd 11/08/2022 (Tue) 20:57 [Preview] No.49181 del
That's quite chad move. Or maybe illiterate.

Bernd 11/08/2022 (Tue) 21:03 [Preview] No.49182 del
>I went to vote but then I turned over

Bernd 11/08/2022 (Tue) 23:45 [Preview] No.49183 del
>Bolso is accepting the result? How they communicating their loss to the public?
He hasn't spoken a lot, but has already accepted the transition to a new government and hence, admitted his defeat.

Most of those 20% couldn't care less about the penalties for not voting, which aren't very strict (e.g. not being able to work in the civil service).

Bernd 11/18/2022 (Fri) 17:29 [Preview] No.49223 del
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Can fit to philosophy and politics, or even religion, but due to it's ties to the Theory of Power, I picked politics.

Machiavelli says it is better to be feared than loved, and the best would be respected, which consist of love and fear, but is very rare and the prince have to be fine of either of the first two (but then should be aspired to be feared instead of loved).
Older generations also teach the younger to have respect and give respect to the elder. It's a way of exerting control (have to think about how this fits to the Power Theory). From telling the kid to respect his parents and grandparents, to the bullying of younger conscripts by the older ones in the military, all similar. All these also seem to boil down to Machiavelli's maxim. Although general the kids love their parents more than fear, and the reverse with the military hierachy (at the moment I wouldn't go into cases such as a brute fathers or an emotionally exploitative mothers etc.)
There are a number of situations when respecting seems generally axiomatic. Abiding rules, respect the law. Staying quiet in the library is respecting their rules, and the institution. Respecting our hosts if we are guests in someone's house, or country (behave like Romans...)

Bernd 11/18/2022 (Fri) 17:30 [Preview] No.49224 del
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But why Machiavelli thought it is hard to gain respect, if it's all self-evident in many everyday situations? I believe because giving respect (following behaviourial norms) and having respect (feeling that awe, knowing the quality, the capability, the achievement, the greatness, etc.) are two different things.
If you want respect you have to earn it - it is a common wisdom and describes well the situation. And this is where princes fell, they couldn't earn it. There were nothing extraordinary in them, besides the ambition, and Machiavelli knew it, and he did not demand the impossible. It is not easy to earn it. Being dangerous won't make you loved, and being generous won't make your feared. Those who try applying both might not know when to use each. And it is weird that while great many ways of earning respect - one can be wise, brave, consistent, steadfast, etc. etc. - people still fall short.
Can we feel respect towards people (institutions) we just met and know nothing about them beforehand? I highly doubt it. We can give, but can't have. Some want respect from every new face, beyond the humanly possible live-and-let-live norm. This expectation is quite egotistical, shortsighted, unwise, etc. These people themselves never tried to respect others, never walked a mile. Even if someone is highly respectable, the proof is on him to keep himself to his nature and gain respect again and again. If he really is, in most cases shouldn't be hard, but on every occasion it will need time. And more often than not, time can be precious, therefore reputation that precede us could turn into an important factor. But that's another story.

What would Bernd add to this? I feel I kinda left out that live-and-let-live aspect which just touched in the end for example.

Tried to dig up some cool gang sign for respect. But only this the best I could find.

Bernd 11/19/2022 (Sat) 17:25 [Preview] No.49227 del
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Giving vs. having respect.
The chief difference just occurred to me. By giving it, one gets something in return, an advantage, or just he'll be left in peace, or whatever else. However having it, is the recognition, that the other deserves respect. The first one mutually benefits the respected and the respectee(? is this a word?), unless somehow the respectee loses respect in front of others, must be specific condition. The latter helps tremendously the respected.

Bernd 01/07/2023 (Sat) 13:54 [Preview] No.49600 del
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Looking at the party preference polls (among sure voters). There is at least one from last December, but here's three from November from three different institutions (not much changed btw).
Fidesz is about 50%. No other party can challenge them alone. Unless some catastrophe happens, they gonna win the election in 2026 again. And most likely in 2030 as well. I think many people are just resigned that Fidesz is destined to win all. Like Russians acknowledging that Putin is a constant. Noone could do better anyway, we would be better off with someone else, they would steal the same.
DK, the "socialist" party of the ex-PM of the socialist party (Gyurcsány Ferenc PM), is at 18%. How the fuck they are capable to still hold this many voters, it is a mystery. Sometimes Gyurcsány says something over the top, but not much else they do. The main event that should have eradicate the party was the 2008 recession, and the 2x4 years of governing from 2002-2010, that drove the country to the ground, crashed and burnt. Gyurcsány was so unpopular he had to resign. Now they are the second largest party still...
Mi Hazánk at 8-10%, right radical party which was very (and only) liberal by opposing all the COVID restrictions and mandates. They stepped up and took over the place of the Jobbik after that one allied itself with the libs and socialists.
Momentum. Liberals just over the 5% threshold which allows entry to the legislation. Nothing noteworthy about them.
The rest probably couldn't reach the threshold, socialists, libs, joke party, and the Jobbik which noone knows what role they play (joke party #2?). They have nothing to offer to the voters. Well the joke party can offer humorous moves, initiatives.
Fuck me. Well at least the Fidesz gives something to western liberal media to grumble about. But I'm afraid it is according to plans as well.

Bernd 01/08/2023 (Sun) 22:37 [Preview] No.49610 del
Chimpout in Brasília. After the election, masses of diehard bolsonarists stood in front of Army quarters through the country, demanding a coup d'état. Bolsonaro didn't deliver and chickened out of the country in late December, he was in Florida and did not partake in the transfer of power ceremony. Now they breached into Congress, the Supreme Court and other palaces in the capital (it's Sunday, none of the lazy politicians are there), vandalized everything, broke windows and so on. Some have called this an attempted coup d'état (lmao). The military and police are already smoking them out. Lula has placed the capital under federal intervention and called the invaders "fanatical fascists and Nazis".

Bernd 01/09/2023 (Mon) 05:02 [Preview] No.49611 del
APCs and military riot troops have cordoned off the Army's central headquarters. The Supreme Court's president has deposed the Federal District's governor for 90 days, accusing him of doing nothing to stop the chimpout. Hundreds have been arrested on charges of attempting to overthrow the government.

Bernd 01/09/2023 (Mon) 08:17 [Preview] No.49612 del
>protesters demanding a coup
>great leader isn't even in the country
>breaking into empty offices
>Some have called this an attempted coup d'état
Didn't read this type in Luttwak's.
The last pic looks like some of those on the ground took a nap.
>called the invaders "fanatical fascists and Nazis".
Well those did some of the failed coup attempts in history.

>The Supreme Court's president has deposed the Federal District's governor for 90 days, accusing him of doing nothing to stop the chimpout
Why not just get a new one? What he could do anyway? Mobilize the army?
>Hundreds have been arrested on charges of attempting to overthrow the government.
Jesus. This is just low level vandalism, worth some hefty fines, but overthrowing the govt is a very srs charge. Well maybe not in South Am. where this happens on every other weekend.

Bernd 01/09/2023 (Mon) 17:53 [Preview] No.49615 del
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>Why not just get a new one?
He was elected just a couple months ago, now the vice-governor assumes office. Alexandre de Moraes, the Supreme Court's president, deposed him after requests by a senator and the Attorney General. Not much of checks and balances, it was instant. It's chilling that any governor in the country can be overthrown by the Supreme Court in a matter of hours.
>What he could do anyway?
He commands the local police, federal police forces (besides the Army) are small. Both the state police and Army have been accused of a slow reaction, which might pave the way for purges. Lula's government will push forward with their plans for legislation and enforcement powers against hate speech, disinformation and threats to democracy.
>This is just low level vandalism, worth some hefty fines, but overthrowing the govt is a very srs charge.
Not so low level, they even ruined antiques and gifts from other nations.
It's not the first thing this happens, protesters have breached and vandalized buildings at the heart of power in Brasília before. Maybe bolsonarists imagined the Army would step in their favor and take over. They have a messianic mindset comparable to the effects of QAnon on trumpists, but it's not purely Americanization (see Sebastianism, which still echoed on Brazilian peasants centuries apart from its original context in Portugal). For the two months after the election, they expected Bolsonaro's military coup would arrive anytime soon in the next 72 hours. And Bolsonaro, after being hyped up as a fascist proto-dictator a step away from a coup for years, turned out to be the pussiest president in Brazilian history. And the Army is what is always was, loyal to the source of their paychecks.
Bolsonaro and bolsonarists have tried their hardest to kamikaze their entire movement. Standing in front of military quarters for two months demanding a coup was a dead end, nothing would come out of it, it was just political masturbation. It kept the diehard vanguard active, but further isolated them from society, making them an object of mockery, and slowly burning the movement's willpower and patience as the expected salvation never came. They're LARPing as trumpists, who failed and got crushed. And the Executive and Supreme Court are delighted to LARP as the triumphant American deep state.

Bernd 01/10/2023 (Tue) 12:34 [Preview] No.49617 del
Bolsonarists were detained en masse at the Army HQ and are temporarily held in a stadium.

Bernd 01/10/2023 (Tue) 21:54 [Preview] No.49618 del
At least that Guarani is still happy.

So they gonna get processed and sentenced in speed up fashion?

Bernd 01/14/2023 (Sat) 03:41 [Preview] No.49635 del
This is literally another holocaust, except that unlike jews those guys didn't do nothing.
Every teacher and jorno is a leftists, and every leftists is a warhammer fantasy style Daemon of Ruin.

Lula gets less than 40% votes in election and the eletric jew claims he got 51%. It's Idiocracy 2: the revengeance.

Bernd 02/16/2023 (Thu) 20:43 [Preview] No.49832 del
"Lulag" is funnier. They were all processed in a couple days, though.

Looking back one month later: intelligence agencies noted there could be an act of vandalism a few days in advance and warned the government. The resulting chimpout is entirely the state government's fault (they got purged) and the Army's fault (also purged), with no responsibility whatsoever on Lula's Interior Ministry. Lula and Alexandre de Moraes are amassing power and institutionalizing the emergency measures to save democracy, as one would expect. There's talk of creating a National Guard.

Some American libs have expressed worries about the Supreme Court's power, but they find little support here. From the NYT:
>In many cases, Mr. Moraes has acted unilaterally, emboldened by new powers the court granted itself in 2019 that allow it to, in effect, act as an investigator, prosecutor and judge all at once in some cases.
>In 2019, a few months after Mr. Bolsonaro took office, a one-page document vastly expanded the Supreme Court’s authority.
>At the time, the court was facing attacks online from some of Mr. Bolsonaro’s supporters. Typically, law enforcement officers or prosecutors would have to open an investigation into such activity, but they had not.
>So Mr. Toffoli, the court’s chief justice, issued an order granting the Supreme Court itself the authority to open an investigation.
>The court would investigate “fake news” — Mr. Toffoli used the term in English — that attacked “the honorability” of the court and its justices.
>It was an unprecedented role, turning the court in some cases into the accuser and the judge, according to Marco Aurélio Mello, a former Supreme Court justice who last year reached the mandatory retirement age of 75.
>Mr. Moraes ordered major social networks to remove dozens of accounts, erasing thousands of their posts, often without giving a reason, according to a tech company official who spoke on the condition of anonymity to avoid provoking the judge. When this official’s tech company reviewed the posts and accounts that Mr. Moraes ordered it to remove, the company found that much of the content did not break its rules, the official said.
>In many cases, Mr. Moraes went after right-wing influencers who spread misleading or false information. But he also went after people on the left. When the official account of a Brazilian communist party tweeted that Mr. Moraes was a “skinhead” and that the Supreme Court should be dissolved, Mr. Moraes ordered tech companies to ban all of the party’s accounts, including a YouTube channel with more than 110,000 subscribers. The companies complied.

>He has jailed people without trial for posting threats on social media; helped sentence a sitting congressman to nearly nine years in prison for threatening the court; ordered raids on businessmen with little evidence of wrongdoing; suspended an elected governor from his job; and unilaterally blocked dozens of accounts and thousands of posts on social media, with virtually no transparency or room for appeal.

Bernd 02/16/2023 (Thu) 20:50 [Preview] No.49833 del
Lula met Biden, American funding and NGOs can be expected for the Amazon. I'm glad the United States has our best interests at its heart.

Bernd 02/16/2023 (Thu) 20:59 [Preview] No.49835 del
Yeah I saw some headlines which claimed deforestation decreased by 10 or whatever % in Lula's first months.

Bernd 02/18/2023 (Sat) 10:15 [Preview] No.49838 del
>"Lulag" is funnier
>intelligence agencies noted there could be an act of vandalism a few days in advance
They must be some sorted geniuses. Failed elections and act of vandalism go hand in hand. And since one side (or more) always loses, the chances are to be right when predicting it, is breddy good.
>allow it to, in effect, act as an investigator, prosecutor and judge all at once
Sounds convenient. He only needed either legislative or executive power. Or both. But Lula has his back again, yeah? So now they can censor the internet together.
Sounds like Brazil needs places where they can discuss things openly without the meddling of Mr. Moraes. Maybe we could promote Endchan to them. Not for the dogoleros tho. And they already now about it.

Bernd 02/18/2023 (Sat) 18:15 [Preview] No.49839 del
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Listening Orbán again. Maybe there will be something notable. Bout 1 hour long evaluation of the last year.

Bernd 02/18/2023 (Sat) 18:53 [Preview] No.49840 del
Well, he says the Ukro-Russian war can go on for years. And the West entered the war.
He promises more Hungarian agricultural products. Food chiefly. Will see. The competition of Western farmers (heavily subsidized) is strong. I heard stooges of the Orbán and co. bought up lotsa land. I guess they want to profit from those.
They wanna develop Eastern Hungary. Building bridges infrastructure, helping industrial areas. Will need more power plants so they want to build more - he says if Brussels won't help in this, someone else will! Very mysterious. Maybe Chinese belt and road? Or someone from along that road?
Promised more family centric measures. For now nothing concrete.
Still talks about we have to stay out of the war. He says it will be hard because in the EU and the NATO, and there everyone wants the war.
Said Russia attacked Ukraine, and we let the Ukrainian refugees in. The war isn't fought between good and bad, but a war of the Slavic countries. We recognize the right of Ukraine to defend herself. We won't give weapons, and even money sparingly. But we give humanitarian aid. We also vote against gas, oil, and nuclear sanctions. Won't break relations with Russia. All these are goes against our national interests - which ourselves decide as a sovereign nation.
He says Russia is not a threat the security of Europe, only with nuclear capabilities but the war does not lowers that particular threat, but raises it. He says the war showed us, that Russia won't have a chance against NATO in a regular war. We understand that the Ukrainians wants us to believe that Russians would only stop at the Atlantic shores, but we don't swallow this hook. The Russian army is not capable of attacking the NATO, and for a long while it won't be able either. I tend to agree with this but I see the point of Colonel Reisner that if we underestimate Russia's capability to change, adapt, and grow, we can have a very uncomfortable surprise. Si vis pacem, para bellum.
We suggest again the organization of a common EU army. Well if EU wants to be a power on her own right, she needs it. It goes against US interest tho. I think Orbán and Macron has closer cooperation than anyone would believe.
He says we also want a buffer between Hungary and Russia, as wide as possible, a sovereign Ukraine. And this can only be done with cease fire and talks right now. I do agree that bordering Russia is not good for us. And even less good if Russia has a foothold within the Carpathian basin. We need Karpátalja/Zakrpatia, and beyond that we need Ukraine. Or Poland if she needs anything, no? :^)

cont. Bernd 02/18/2023 (Sat) 19:30 [Preview] No.49841 del
About NATO membership: it's vital. It's easy for Austria and eSwitzini, but we are too much on the Eastern ends. The NATO membership oblige only defense, but not offense. Everyone can initiate war on herself.
Says all West is in indirect war with Russia. He predicts soon the countries will send so called peacekeeping forces. This correlates with what C. Reisner said that it's possible NATO will intervene and create a safety zone in Eastern Ukraine.
Therefore he seems don't doubt Ukraine will get the fighter jets.
He compares the hawks of Europe and the West are like sleepwalkers on the roof.
He says we understand Polan and the Baltic states. I do agree.
He questions the motivations of the rest.
He says back then, since Russia attacked Georgia, all through the conflicts, a strong and decisive Franco-German leadership intervened and prevented escalation, and lead to Minsk agreement. Now the war was elevated into a European problem.
Says we lost our allies in peace. Like the Germans. Says maybe they still have the old maps. Keks. And everyone turned along with the Germans. And the Germans are now pretend they were always for the war. Now in the peace camp only two members left: Hungary and the Vatican.
Expects the war become more violent and rough, and with it the verbal attacks and propaganda against us will grow and get more harsh.
Talks about US relations. Like Trump as good friend. And now Biden sent Pressman to press us into the war camp. As long as they don't send some Putschini. He expects the Republicans strengthening for the next election, and hopes they'll fare well.
Says we aren't dreamer pacifists. We know the deal won't be made between Ukaine and Russia, but US and Russia.
Talks about inflation. He says it's for the sanctions of Brussels, it targeted Russia, but hit Europe. He says they promised in Brussels that the sanctions will end the war, but after a year we see the end is farther than ever. Says the ones in Brussels tied the price of electricity to gas. And no matter how the electricity is produced (sun, wind, coal, hydro, or nuclear) the price will go up with the gas. Says Russia's profit of gas and oil grew by 70% in the last year, thanks for the sanctions raised prices, and was payed by the European people.
Says Brussels sends no help, only more sanctions. They denied monetary support from Hungary, and Poland.

cont. Bernd 02/18/2023 (Sat) 19:43 [Preview] No.49842 del
Now talks about Hungarian economical measures and the inflation. Not too interesting, a bit of self-polishing. Probably some will note things that not exactly how it goes as he says. But it's true that the HUF got his "strength" back. In 2022 the Hungary fell from 1 EUR = 400 HUF to 460 HUF, and now it's 380 HUF
Now about pedophilia. I don't follow the news he mentions a recent event in a school. He promises strict child protective system, new laws are expected. He ties it to the "gender propaganda" as he called it, which we won't allow. Basically this is the closing accord.

There were couple of points I found interesting, those about the war, that it'll continue for years, and the NATO will move troops into Ukraine.
The rest of the comments about foreign politics basically supports Russia obviously, but it doesn't mean Europe will lose on the business (see French plans of getting close to Russia and severing ties from the US).
I also wonder how the development the country will proceed, and with whom's help.

Bernd 02/19/2023 (Sun) 13:56 [Preview] No.49843 del
>But Lula has his back again, yeah?
Moraes is anti-Bolsonaro but not necessarily pro-Lula. He twice served as a cabinet member in current VP Alckmin's state governments in São Paulo and also as Minister of Justice in Temer's government, which the Worker's Party still describes as an illegitimate coup-installed government. The Supreme Court can be expected to side with the centrist elites which allied with Lula to defeat Bolsonaro.

>He says back then, since Russia attacked Georgia, all through the conflicts, a strong and decisive Franco-German leadership intervened and prevented escalation, and lead to Minsk agreement. Now the war was elevated into a European problem.
>Says we lost our allies in peace. Like the Germans. Says maybe they still have the old maps. Keks. And everyone turned along with the Germans. And the Germans are now pretend they were always for the war. Now in the peace camp only two members left: Hungary and the Vatican.
But how did France and Germany become hawks, was it just American pressure?

Bernd 02/19/2023 (Sun) 17:13 [Preview] No.49845 del
So we could think of Moraes as an own powerblock (or at least a figurehead of a separate powerblock)?

>But how did France and Germany become hawks, was it just American pressure?
He prefaces the reasons with saying that in previous conflicts, strong French and German leadership stepped in and made peace via negotiation. In 2008 Sarkozi went and made a deal in case of Georgia, in case of 2014 Crimean conflict it was Merkel who took the initiative and made peace.
He blames the centralization of EU. He said when the member states made the decisions it created peace, but now the center of the empire decided, and turned into war.
He does not blame the US (openly), he generalizes that "The West" made a decision that it will support the war.
Then he goes into saying that the Germans were in the peace camp, and did not send weapons, just helmets. Now in a few weeks the Leopards will roll through Ukraine, to the Russian border and remarks: they might still have the old maps - I have to note this also reflects Putin's analogy between the Tigers/Panthers and the Leos, and this "yet another WWII against us" stance of Moscow. He says the Germans turned with everybody else, and everybody else turned with the Germans, this is how the peace camp dwindled.
He said it is hard to believe that the Germans turned on their own accord. But when they moved into the war camp, they declared they'll be the head of it. And then when the other nations saw that the Germans cannot withstand the outside pressure, they won't be able either. So they followed suit.
Again does not blame the US (openly).
But after a couple of lines he presents how the Democrat US leadership put pressure on Hungary in 2014 (M. André Goodfriend), then now, again the Democrats, with the new Ambassador (David Pressman)it seems we only get Jewish ambassadors from the US, who works hard to press us into the war camp.
After some lines he says that peace will be made when the US and Russia negotiates it.

So we can conclude he mentions three things:
1. the growing centralized power of Brussels
2. direct pressure of Washington on the EU member states, and probably to Brussels itself
3. the weak German resistance (the new and weak leadership of Germany, which he does not say out loud, but I think it's there, since he makes the comparisons in the beginning)
He doesn't blame France or Macron himself, but we also can surmise that without a strong partner in Berlin, Macron went with them. Well in the "others" and "other nations" contains France too.
And when he notes only the US and Russia at the table, he also implies that the EU is a non-player in the question (along with Ukraine).

Bernd 02/20/2023 (Mon) 02:35 [Preview] No.49846 del
>So we could think of Moraes as an own powerblock (or at least a figurehead of a separate powerblock)?
Basically he's the most powerful instrument of the centrist power block, which is allied to Lula but might break off the alliance in the future.

>1. the growing centralized power of Brussels
But is Brussels truly an actor of its own, or indirectly an expression of the most powerful member states' interests?

Bernd 02/20/2023 (Mon) 08:51 [Preview] No.49847 del
I assume this situation arises from the "balkanized" Brazilian party system, with the over 9000 tiny parties and their jumble of alliances.

>But is Brussels truly an actor of its own, or indirectly an expression of the most powerful member states' interests?
There is a part of the speech where he criticizes Brussels, but he does not talk about such thing. He says at one point (referring to a corruption case in Brussels), that not Brussels should oversee the member states, but the member states should oversee Brussels. And he hopes that after the next line of elections in the member states will change this for the better (better results for conservatives, "eu-skeptics", anti-centralization parties).
Basically in their (Fidesz and Orbán) rhetoric - when communicating towards the population - they created Brussels as an abstract antagonist they can fight against in the name of the nation and national interests. They also mention it frequently that Soros and his agenda influences them, from overseas.
It's not easy to tell what they really think, because the politicians just use vague terms and tropes. There are political scientists, analysts, and journalists close to Fidesz, who manufacture the rest of the narrative, but I don't really follow them and only pick up bits and pieces from what they say.
I could try to look into the state of the EU parliament and the rest of the institutions, the Commission and whatever they have, how detached it is from the will of the nations, how much influence lobbyists have, who could be these, etc. It could be interesting, potentially enlightening but sounds like a lot of work, and ofc will reflect my own thoughts and bias (probably this goes without saying).
I know participation in EU legislative elections are low here, and I bet in most countries, so the popular support of those who get there is kinda weak, and then in the selection of the rest of the offices, the people of the member states has no say.
Problem is with modern, representative democracies in general, that we don't really send our representatives into the parliament with a package containing what we expect to do there, what they should initiate, what they should support, what is our will, and have little influence on what happens there, we can't really recall the delegated members of the legislature if we aren't satisfied with their work. It's even more true with the EU parliament. We just get some news sporadically what they are voting about. I know the results of their work is published, there are dl-able pdf-s with the laws and votes, and who voted what, etc. it is available online for everyone, but barely anyone has this in mind, and even less check these. People barely aware what's going in in their own countries and localities, we mostly know about what the media screams into the ether.
Oh wow, it's getting too long. We'll see, I wanted to write about something else, politics related, maybe I should finish that up first.

Bernd 02/20/2023 (Mon) 11:48 [Preview] No.49849 del
From Feb 17 to 19 they hold the Munich Security Conference 2023 in... uh... Münich.
Wang Yi, the Director of the Office of the Central Foreign Affairs Commission, People's Republic of China spoke some. Trying to find the whole speech with little success. Here's the China Daily article what he said about the Ukrainian conflict:
I post this because it seems Western/US sites mainly focus on that bullshit balloon incident. Could go into the Syrian Ukrainian Syrian War Ukrainian Syrian War thread, but it ties to Orbán's speech.
Problem is China Daily might edit things to sound more peaceful.

Bernd 02/23/2023 (Thu) 17:16 [Preview] No.49861 del
About the pedophilia and gender propaganda, figured out what's going on.
So it turned out a 39 yo. teacher, man/male, we have no fugging pronouns so who knows, had sex with 15 yo. boy/male student.
Now, on the Hungary the age of consent is 14. BUT there is an exception in criminal law, if one is in the position of power, a teacher, legal guardian, etc. then it is illegal to have sex with the 14-18 yo. This is because it cannot be known if the adult used pressure to get sex from the subordinated minor, and it is complicated to prove it was consensual. They will question the word of the teenager, on the basis that he/she might be afraid from repercussions or whatnot. But essentially this would fall into the category of rape if we want to use analogies (forcing sex).
Now every time a news make it to the public about a teacher having sex with a 14+ yo student, everyone cries about pedophilia (it isn't, for it's not a prepubescent child in question, it's a form of rape as I wrote), and now that the participants are males it also can be associated with this gender idiotism. Plus, these days homosexuality isn't that big of a deal now, even here, even in conservative circles, so they need the accusation of pedophilia to make the waves.
>our homos are good, family and child friendly homos, but leftlib homos are baed pedo homos

Bernd 02/24/2023 (Fri) 12:55 [Preview] No.49862 del
Finally EU realized that Tiktok is a spyware. Is it because China seems to support Russia, and the tensions around Taiwan?

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