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Politics Serious Discussion - Getting out edition Bernd 04/24/2020 (Fri) 17:54:06 [Preview] No. 36217
Justice Minister Moro resigned. He is immensely popular and was doing a good job. There have been high-profile arrests and in 2019 the number of murders dropped by 10 thousand compared to the previous year, a decrease of a fifth. This is a result of many factors: in the Northeast cooperation among cartels reduced violence, but the reduction happpened in other states. Legislation wasn't a factor as there was next to no real change in this regard. He retains much prestige despite the scandal with his leaks, eternal hate from the left due to being Lula's nemesis and repeated disempowerment of the anti-corruption struggle by Congress and the Supreme Court.
What caused this was Bolsonaro's elimination of Federal Police director Maurício Valeixo, who had been picked by Moro. In his final address he noted that:
-There was no legitimate reason for this as he had been effective in his post
-This was a violation of the promise Bolsonaro made upon naming him Minister, that he'd have freedom to handle subordinates
-Bolsonaro also intends to replace a subordinate of the director, the Rio de Janeiro superintendent, and possibly other superintendents, which goes against his spirit of giving autonomy to subordinates
-A replacement now would create confusion and harm the Federal Police's functioning
-Bolsonaro personally told him this was a political choice

Why political? He did not say this straight, but what everyone says is that it was to protect Bolsonaro's sons from investigation, and hence why the Rio de Janeiro superintendent is also involved. Their corruption accusations are petty for Brazilian standards but what's bigger are accusations they might be tied to militias. As always Bolsonaro's sons are his priority. This behavior doesn't come out of nowhere as he has few contacts in Brasília, having lived his career in the sidelines, and many reasons to be distrustful. Moro isn't someone he has a reason to distrust but his sons still came first.

Bernd 04/24/2020 (Fri) 20:10:30 [Preview] No.36222 del
wow, big happenings this year.

Bolsonaro is fucked now, right?

Bernd 04/24/2020 (Fri) 20:26:36 [Preview] No.36224 del
Not from this, the only immediate effect is that it'll hurt his popularity. Many of Bolsonaro's opponents hated Moro. But since this pandemic hit the whole country is a mess and his position grows more isolated every day.

Bernd 04/24/2020 (Fri) 20:42:34 [Preview] No.36228 del
This move just make the suspicions against Bolsonaro's sons more credible. Now peeps are speculating that yeah it was because of them, so they sure are guilty.

Bernd 04/24/2020 (Fri) 21:37:55 [Preview] No.36230 del
Bolsonaro made his own statement:
-He has the authority to sack the Federal Police director
-He told he'd sack him to Moro in advance, in yesterday's morning
-It was Valeixo who requested to be relieved of his post
-Moro did not inform him in advance of his decision to resign
-He never went off what was proper to request information on ongoing investigations
-Moro accepted that Valeixo would be sacked, but only after he himself would be named to be the Supreme Court in November

In comparison with Moro's earlier speech:
-He only knew of Valeixo's elimination after it was officially published, and did not sign it. Nonetheless the official document has Moro's digital signature. Moro said nothing about this but it has led to speculation that his signature was placed without his knowledge through fraud. Bolsonaro did not touch the topic of Moro's signature
-Valeixo spoke to Moro of leaving his post but only as a response to pressure, and his removal was political
-Bolsonaro wanted someone who could provide information on ongoing investigations
-Upon becoming minister Moro never put up the condition of being placed in the Supreme Court. More recently he said he never traded Valeixo's permanence for a nomination.

Bernd 04/25/2020 (Sat) 13:55:49 [Preview] No.36249 del
Polish election is coming in May. Due to this epidemic-situation their parliament decided to hold it remotely, the Royal Post was charged to manage the event. There are problems however...

Bernd 04/25/2020 (Sat) 14:21:06 [Preview] No.36252 del
It seems Bolsonaro was lying. Moro's resignation did not come out of a vacuum, there was talk about it for a while and when Bolsonaro sacked Valeixo he knew a resignation could come. Likewise there was talk about political pressure on Valeixo for a long time so it can't be a personal desire to leave. Moro leaked Whatsapp correspondence with the President to the media. On them Bolsonaro links to a piece of news about the Federal Police weighing down on 10-12 of his deputies, and says "one more reason for a replacement". Moro pointed out that this was by the Supreme Court's orders.
The investigation itself is part of the Supreme Court's fake news enquiry, which is controversial and part of their tendency to overreach, on the same line as their gag orders on a news site last year.
Moro might be lying about not trading Valeixo's stay for a Supreme Court naming but there isn't more information on that.

Bernd 04/25/2020 (Sat) 15:29:17 [Preview] No.36255 del
Moro also showed a conversation with deputy Carla Zambelli in which she requests him to accept Valeixo's later replacement in exchange for the Supreme Court, but he refuses. At the very least the idea was in circulation.

Bernd 04/26/2020 (Sun) 11:26:43 [Preview] No.36286 del
There are more problems than mentioned in the article.
IMO main thing is lack of any decisions. Today is 26th of april. Elections originally were supposed to be 10th of May, that's 2 weeks from now. Polish Post assumed we need 3 days to deliver everything, so we would have to start on 6th. As of now there is no law declared that would allow for elections. As far as I know the senate is holding it for no real reason (just because they can). The institution that is responsible for printing all the voting papers have no right to print them and that takes time too. Don't forget it also needs to be shipped to all the post offices around the country. One of the president candidates, Krzysztof Bosak, said few days ago that he doesn't know if the elections are going to happen on 10th of May or not and that he also got info that a debate in state television is planned on 11th of May. IIRC after all the law gets approved elections can be held no earlier than 2 weeks from that day. So it would basically be against law to have them on 10th of May.
Postal workers are angry, because delivering those voting packets means our usual work will have to be stopped and that just means more work later. There is a question of extra pay, and we were promised it but so far nothing specific has been said. I heard 3 different versions but nothing official. We will be delivering the packets as a committee of 2 people, one postman and one other worker. Some people here are talking about protesting and that means we won't have enough manpower.
As I was typing this I got a message from my boss that she needs to send to the directors a committee composition tomorrow lol.

Bernd 04/27/2020 (Mon) 05:51:10 [Preview] No.36309 del
I can't add much to the discussion about Bolsonaro but it seems to me he's getting into a nice pickle. Storm clouds are coming. Is there a possible "pretender" around? Rival in his own faction? How strong the opposition?

Found something interesting I didn't know about.
European Citizens' Initiative
Basically it's a way to influence EU legislation through grassroot movements or astroturf it if someone has the capacity, upstairs ofc I'm breddy sure they do it. Peeps can make these initiatives and can gather signatures for their cause. These can be added via a form. When they reach 1 million signatures and the threshold is reached in 7 EU countries, the initiative will be discussed by the Commission and the Parliament and maybe they make it into a law. Chances are pretty slim I would say, but not nil, possibility is open, worth trying.
Right now there's nine ongoing initiatives. What I came across was this one:
It's about how national but not independent regions could get direct funding from EU and spend it any way they, like independently from their countries' policies. Here is its website:
And here's the form:
As of now it's largely supported by Hungarians, since it helps Székelyföld in Transylvania, maybe can be a step toward autonomy if we look at the big picture, but other regions in the EU would benefit, such as Catalonia, Wales, Frisia, or Corsica.
Now, I can't ask EU citizen Bernds to support this particular one, and share it with others and I don't. Bernd should make up his own mind if he thinks it's a good idea personally, or for his nation. Weigh if it fits into his own views.
And there are other initiatives. Maybe Bernd will find one he thinks he can get behind.
It's not a miracle switch to solve problems instantaneously, but it's a tool it can be used.

Bernd 04/27/2020 (Mon) 05:53:55 [Preview] No.36312 del
I'm Hungarobernd. My ball doesn't show up for some reason.

Bernd 04/27/2020 (Mon) 12:32:39 [Preview] No.36320 del
No! I am hungrobernd!

Bernd 04/27/2020 (Mon) 16:08:35 [Preview] No.36332 del
No I!

Bernd 04/27/2020 (Mon) 23:25:29 [Preview] No.36343 del
(188.94 KB 1920x1080 Rodrigo Maia.jpg)
>Is there a possible "pretender" around? Rival in his own faction? How strong the opposition?
His nemesis is Rodrigo Maia, president of the Chamber of Deputies, who can rally an opposition from 3 sources:
-The old guard of Brasília, of which he is a representative: traditional parties of the center and right as well as the Supreme Court.
-A parliamentary minority of liberals, libertarians and others who have tried to distance themselves from the old guard, support Lava Jato and draw politically conscious voters.
-Often overlapping with the previous, former Bolsonaro allies who broke with him. Most were opportunists who latched on to his initially tiny circle when they saw his power, but ideology and/or lack of concession led them to break away. A huge section of Bolsonaro's allies have already defected.

In addition the media will support a center and right of center political offensive against the President. There's also the left which is loud but small and not allied with Maia. Besides the ideological gap, Moro's exit might have pleased them, as well as some of the old center.
If Maia can frame Bolsonaro and rally a strong enough base he might impeach him, but to attain power himself he'd have to impeach both President and VP as he's second in the line of succession. If Bolsonaro alone is toppled Mourão would make a lot of concessions but it would not be a complete defeat to the Bolsonaro camp.
Bolsonaro makes enemies with everyone, in a way a moral thing as there's less bribery involved, but also a stubborn way to rule which doesn't bear fruit unless he uses it to seize more power; so far it only led to a loss of power. He tries to rely on popular pressure but a lot of his voters picked him to defeat his opponent, not because of himself, and are now apathetic. He has a core base including engaged political activists, much like the Worker's Party, but that has also lost its strength. His most hardcore supporters now became Moro haters but many others are disappointed with how it turned out.

Bernd 04/30/2020 (Thu) 14:59:18 [Preview] No.36393 del
Supreme Court judge Moraes suspended the new pick for Federal Police director, Ramagem. Meanwhile Bolsonaro is buying himself a base by handing out posts to members of the center.

Bernd 05/03/2020 (Sun) 01:37:01 [Preview] No.36494 del
Today Moro entered the Federal Police building in Curitiba to depose of political interference in the institution and began to speak at about 14:30. It's 22:36 and there are no news of him finishing, only that pizza was requested.

Bernd 05/03/2020 (Sun) 01:48:34 [Preview] No.36495 del
And it's over. It took 8 hours.

Bernd 05/03/2020 (Sun) 16:00:09 [Preview] No.36503 del
How does it look like? Will Bolsonaro serve through his term? Well, if you have to guess.

What was the topping I wonder. Is pineapple popular in the higher echelons of politics?

Bernd 05/03/2020 (Sun) 21:25:35 [Preview] No.36512 del
It's hard to guess. An impeachment is by design difficult to pull off, and even the opposition may not bother to set one in motion if the crisis doesn't cross a certain threshold. Mourão won't organize Bolsonaro's fall himself, that would fall to Maia. For Maia unseating both Bolsonaro and Mourão to get himself the throne is harder than unseating Bolsonaro alone and getting concessions from Mourão. Bolsonaro is buying support in the center. But if it comes down to parliamentary negotiation ability Maia wins.

Bernd 05/04/2020 (Mon) 05:42:53 [Preview] No.36524 del
Is there a talk about impeachment in the media? What are the chances it's just imitation of the US? I'm thinking that Bolsonaro was called the Brazilian Trump, so might be they just took over this impeachment nonsense from the US because that was a popular topic there.

Bernd 05/04/2020 (Mon) 12:35:00 [Preview] No.36526 del
>Is there a talk about impeachment in the media?
A lot of talk right now.
>What are the chances it's just imitation of the US?
It's an imitation of Dilma, not Trump.

Bernd 05/04/2020 (Mon) 14:05:26 [Preview] No.36528 del
Oh yeah, they did her. Her VP was from the opposition or from the same coalition? How about current VP?

Bernd 05/04/2020 (Mon) 16:19:33 [Preview] No.36532 del
Dilma's VP was Temer, from the center which until 2015 was the left's coalition partner. Around 2015 the center saw Dilma was weak, switched to the opposition, overthrew her minority government and enlisted the right as its coalition partner.
Right now Bolsonaro's VP is ideologically aligned with him and not part of Maia's faction.

Bernd 05/04/2020 (Mon) 18:36:09 [Preview] No.36536 del
And since Mourao doesn't busy himself with impeaching Bolsonaro, and impeaching only Bolsonaro wouldn't change much on the big picture, both should have to go, but that's a harder walnut.
I guess then, an "attack" will depend on if Maia can make a deal with the VP. And even then, it isn't sure it would succeed, a very solid case needed to be built up - I assume - to make the impeachment happen. And for that it is very important that the key people in the justice system play for the right team. How's the new police director and justice minister? Are they the men of Bolsonaro?

Bernd 05/04/2020 (Mon) 21:07:21 [Preview] No.36541 del
>I guess then, an "attack" will depend on if Maia can make a deal with the VP
He doesn't even need to make a deal, if Mourão is given the fait accompli of an impeachment he will have no choice but to compromise and make concessions.
>And for that it is very important that the key people in the justice system play for the right team.
The Supreme Court would side with Maia.
>How's the new police director and justice minister? Are they the men of Bolsonaro?
They're loyal. He had the authority to do this, it just came at a political price.

Bernd 05/08/2020 (Fri) 20:15:29 [Preview] No.36612 del
(43.73 KB 700x399 idiots.jpg)
Huh, the black automobile can come for me any minute nao.
This is so stupid. While I also agree that this period should have clearly defined expiry date, Orbán and co. touched nothing which wasn't related to managing this "crisis". Our "independent" media is breddy gud pointing out abuse, but not much around. Beside the usual corruption.
With their 2/3 majority they can pretty much do anything anyway.

For later read I put this here:
Election in Polan arriving fast. Or maybe not?

Bernd 05/09/2020 (Sat) 14:46:30 [Preview] No.36620 del
It's a nickname for all the important branches of state owned companies here. Similarly "of the treasury".

On political level this circus with the election, is a storm in the chamberpot, blew out of proportion. It will be held when it can be. It will be postponed by a couple of months, so what. It's just something to be very concerned of, something that politicians can pretend they very much busy with, this question is important so they are important.
What I don't get, how cannot be this set up electronically. Vote over the internets. People are worried about AI and virtuality, and implanted microchips via vaccination, and surveillance... they can't even organize a fuckin election. Srsly.


Bernd 05/10/2020 (Sun) 20:50:56 [Preview] No.36649 del
good doc about argentina

https://youtube.com/watch?v=Eu_0o9OtCDw [Embed]

Bernd 05/10/2020 (Sun) 21:09:53 [Preview] No.36651 del
Unfucking South American countries is an unsolvable puzzle.
Gonna try to watch that in the next couple of days.

Bernd 05/12/2020 (Tue) 12:56:01 [Preview] No.36695 del
Valeixo testified. He said he did not hear from Bolsonaro of scrutinizing any specific investigation and thus cannot accuse him of political interference, and also that his dismissal came with Bolsonaro's insistence because the President desired a Director with affinity to him, and yet his exit from his post had to be officially registered as having been by his own will. Discourses aligned with the President claim the first part of this as a triumph but the second shows he lied about Valeixo's dismissal having been by his own will.

Bernd 05/12/2020 (Tue) 15:07:49 [Preview] No.36697 del
I think this will be enough to keep Bolsonaro afloat. The second part isn't too problematic. Media can chew it a little but not really dangerous.

Bernd 05/15/2020 (Fri) 19:54:16 [Preview] No.36753 del
(363.33 KB 1108x623 transit-zone.jpg)
Panic in Liberaland.
The German Constitutional Court basically overruled the Court of Justice of the European Union. The question in itself seems important, but I know very little about it (it's monetary politics). I haven't even read these articles in their entirety, I just copypasted them here as a reference.
This decision the German Court made, has an interesting side effect, which switched the Hungarian liberal media into panic mode. One of their chief source of satisfaction that the EU Court of Justice make decisions against Hungary and the Hungarian government. Most recent example of their gloating over the reprimand over how Hungary handles the migrant question. Now with the German example (placing national laws before EU laws) in front of them, they are afraid that Orbán will make the Hungarian Supreme Court (Kúria), or even our Constitutional Court to rule over decisions coming from the EU.
Great hope of the opposition that the EU will somehow remove Fidesz from power (since themselves are incapable of that), they are constantly lobbying for the intervention of Brussels (or in case of Court of Justice, Luxembourg). Or if they can't at least hamper and penalize Hungary as much as they can. Now Orbán might be able to just shrug things off.

Bernd 05/16/2020 (Sat) 18:10:53 [Preview] No.36774 del
>eu doing anything to remove fidesz

EU benefits greatly from having a mini-dictatorship in Europe that they can offload dirty work onto. Same reason that Brussels doesn't ultimately care too much that Poland is slipping into authoritarianism.

Bernd 05/16/2020 (Sat) 18:17:22 [Preview] No.36776 del
Yeah, it's a possibility, that they use Orbán and the others as an outlet, or even experimenting with not that liberal democracies.

Bernd 06/28/2020 (Sun) 20:23:32 [Preview] No.38127 del
Polan had presidential election today. Candidates needed 505 for a win. Since noone reached that second round will come up between the first two:
1. Duda
2. Trzaskowski
I hope Duda wins coz it can be spelled easier. Btw he is backed by the ruling party (right wing, conservative), the other guy is the candidate of the major opposing party, which is apparently a liberal-conservative one, member of EPP.

Bernd 06/28/2020 (Sun) 20:23:57 [Preview] No.38128 del

Bernd 06/28/2020 (Sun) 20:51:19 [Preview] No.38129 del
Maybe its a way of controlling flow of people. Both hungary and poland has a big border fence. Perhaps its a way of keeping people inside.

Bernd 06/29/2020 (Mon) 05:16:09 [Preview] No.38143 del
(79.09 KB 1250x724 Orban_arc.jpg)
Not entirely unplausible.

Bernd 06/29/2020 (Mon) 06:54:13 [Preview] No.38146 del
>keeping people inside
inside of eu. Forgot to mention that.

Fences, walls are most often used to keep people inside, even though the popular perception is that its to keep intruders out.

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