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Syria thread - Erdoğan edition Bernd 10/24/2019 (Thu) 01:43:41 [Preview] No. 30865
Erdogan has met Putin and ironed out the partition of northeastern Syria. He gets to keep everything he conquered and the rest stays with Assad. YPG retreats from a 30km strip along the border, leaving the bulk of Kurdish-populated areas. Russo-Turkish patrols guard the safe zone. The deal shows two things:
By inviting Assad the SDF have completely relinquished their sovereignty. This was why they were so relutanct to receive aid during Olive Branch. As long as Erdogan maintains good relations with Assad and Putin, YPG will no longer bother him. If, however, relations sour then he can even expect a repeat of the 90s, when Hafez sheltered Ocalan and allowed PKK to use Syria as its base of operations.
The deal was discussed with Putin, not Assad. It's also clear who calls the shots.

For locals conquered by Peace Spring, the problem is not Turkey itself but its Syrian rebel puppets, who are thugs and mistreat the population, as has already been the case in Afrin. For the war as a whole, peace is now closer. Once Idlib is sorted out, a simple deal with Turkey can grant Assad the whole country except for al-Tanf.

Bernd 10/24/2019 (Thu) 03:02:36 [Preview] No.30868 del
The attack of Turkey to the kurds was pretty sudden. The last I remember before it was that Assad was making gains from dealing with ISIS and FSA, kurds weren't even an issue but just this month they started cracking down on them.

Bernd 10/24/2019 (Thu) 21:07:53 [Preview] No.30888 del
Erdoğan is a genius allien from area 51.

Bernd 10/24/2019 (Thu) 22:37:32 [Preview] No.30890 del
https://youtube.com/watch?v=_0JEP15Zifk [Embed]

click if you're sick of "Turkey is dropping tsar bomb on kurds UN-NATO help!!1!11!!" type of news.

Bernd 10/24/2019 (Thu) 22:42:04 [Preview] No.30891 del
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>not linking to proofs
very bad erdogan

Bernd 10/24/2019 (Thu) 23:22:56 [Preview] No.30894 del
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>asking for proofs

Bernd 10/25/2019 (Fri) 00:53:56 [Preview] No.30897 del
>The attack of Turkey to the kurds was pretty sudden
Turkey invading is no surprise, Erdogan has made clear his intention for a long time. What was sudden was American withdrawal, and even then that wasn't totally unpredictable as Trump promised to get out of Syria.
>The last I remember before it was that Assad was making gains from dealing with ISIS
That was all the way back in late 2017, when he and the SDF advanced up to the Euphrates reducing ISIS to a small strip at the left bank and some pockets in the desert. The residual Caliphate was defeated this year and only the desert presence remains.
The Free Syrian Army itself has effectively ceased to exist years ago, though Turkish-controlled rebels are sometimes called "TFSA". The rebels overall suffered major defeats with all their pockets including Damascus being cleared by 2018, leaving only "Greater Idlib" which has lost a lot of territory with a campaign taking place there just a few months ago.

Bernd 10/25/2019 (Fri) 05:14:46 [Preview] No.30900 del
Wanted to post these yesterday. Maybe outdated now.

Bernd 10/25/2019 (Fri) 13:29:18 [Preview] No.30906 del
America will keep a small contingent at the Euphrates to control the oil fields. Silly, as their actual output is small. All this achieves is prolonging the war.

Bernd 10/25/2019 (Fri) 16:32:21 [Preview] No.30919 del
Now the SAA can go back to slice up the Idlib rebels.
After that there's still the Turkey backed rebels. But I suppose negotiations will start. About something.

Bernd 10/25/2019 (Fri) 16:46:32 [Preview] No.30924 del
I don't think I'll ever be able to comprehend the suffering of the kurds.

Bernd 10/26/2019 (Sat) 08:59:25 [Preview] No.30945 del
Pretty sure Syria is gonna get partitioned. The Turkish military won't go anywhere, the Russians pretty much have Assad by the balls, he's their puppet now and the US is still staying there. Basically, pre-2011 Syria is not coming back.

Turkey will drop those rebels like a hot potato. Sure, they won't attack them directly but they won't lift a finger to stop the Syrian and Russian forces from bombing them to shit.

Bernd 10/26/2019 (Sat) 09:57:23 [Preview] No.30947 del
It's not the first time syrians wanted to rebel, during the papa assad's time, islamists wanted our support for a coup, but we refused. Only reason we jumped this mess because erdoğan is an islamist and he was doing will of USA.

Only now he kinda turned to Russia, he is still a bad politican. He is the reason why my country couldnt handle it unlike previous leaders.

Bernd 10/26/2019 (Sat) 15:39:29 [Preview] No.30969 del
He's really short!

Bernd 10/26/2019 (Sat) 19:04:29 [Preview] No.30973 del
what's happening in syria?
wasn't the war over already?

Bernd 10/27/2019 (Sun) 01:47:13 [Preview] No.30984 del
This is never going to end bro.

Bretty much Afghanistan 2.0 at this point

Bernd 10/27/2019 (Sun) 10:27:27 [Preview] No.30994 del
Al-Baghdadi reportedly dead In a US raid.

I guess now that the ISIS stage of the Syrian Civil War is officially drawing to a close and we’re getting to the Mexican Standoff stage, they are mopping up the remains of all the patsies.

Bernd 11/05/2019 (Tue) 21:15:50 [Preview] No.31308 del
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Some clashes in northern Syria, SAA fights only against Turkish backed rebels. They also went back to shell and bomb rebels around Idlib.

Yeah, suicide it seems. Well, probably sounded more comfy than getting interrogated by US national security. And probably it is.

Bernd 11/06/2019 (Wed) 00:21:12 [Preview] No.31315 del
>probably sounded more comfy than getting interrogated by US national security

With all due respect to the awesomeness of the Ride of the Valkyries helicopter assault scene in the film Apocalypse Now, the Americans didn't come crashing in playing AMERICA FUCK YEAH! or anything else. They may have been screaming at everyone to surrender, that is, screaming in Arabic. Special forces don't overtly identify themselves until it's all over, and usually not even then. Leaving your prisoners guessing is all part of the fun. It's the Russians who have a big rep in this part of the world for doing these sort of up close and personal operations. The Americans are known more for having an observer embedded with the locals to call in precision air strikes and artillery, plus a small special forces team to keep an eye on their observer for his own safety.

Al-Baghdadi probably thought he was facing Russians, or, just possibly, Turks.

In any event, once he realized his attackers were going to stand back so as to throw in yippy cuddly doggos and lickity sweet Adamsite, he knew it was over and he wouldn't get any chance to negotiate, or take some of them with him, or anything. Game over. "Fuck me gently with the greatness that is Allah!" Boom.

Al-Baghdadi wasn't going anywhere with anyone on anything but his own terms.

Bernd 11/06/2019 (Wed) 06:10:12 [Preview] No.31317 del
>no, no we don't torture people it's... it's the evil russians and turksmells... yes...

Bernd 11/06/2019 (Wed) 10:08:27 [Preview] No.31320 del
at least most of the people are in a safe place in europe

Bernd 11/06/2019 (Wed) 17:03:44 [Preview] No.31326 del
Turkey got more. From all the migrants came to EU only the third is/was from Syria...

Bernd 11/07/2019 (Thu) 23:20:18 [Preview] No.31354 del
Erdogan will meet Trump at the White House next week.

Bernd 11/08/2019 (Fri) 08:54:00 [Preview] No.31358 del
Erdo met with Orban recently. r8

Bernd 11/08/2019 (Fri) 15:52:31 [Preview] No.31359 del
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Index has a whole subtitle just to make it easier to reach articles about the event. Were many protest and the police wasn't in it's best form apparently, barred wrong streets and places (trapped ~1500 unrelated pedestrians at a place, sent everyone back into the metro at another time) and such.
Articles in English:
Long reads, but quite a few pretty pictures to look at.

Bernd 11/08/2019 (Fri) 15:54:39 [Preview] No.31360 del
Also Turkey want to send back captured ISIS fighters to their homelands. Except UK and Netherlands withdrew their citizenship so those who arrived from there now they have nowhere to go.

Bernd 11/08/2019 (Fri) 16:57:00 [Preview] No.31361 del
I hate erdoğan with everything I have. But opposition response seems stupid in this case. They complain about refugees yet be crybabies when we attempt to resettle them. Westerns are generally very oblivious around to their surroundings.

Bernd 11/08/2019 (Fri) 17:22:03 [Preview] No.31362 del
Here oppositon opposing everything what governing party does. Even if it's the rational thing to do. Previously Jobbik stood together in some questions with the Fidesz since it fit in their narratives too. But now they're just the same as liberals/greens and socialists.

Bernd 11/08/2019 (Fri) 18:00:12 [Preview] No.31363 del
>Here oppositon opposing everything what governing party does.
Usually same case in here.

Bernd 11/08/2019 (Fri) 19:43:03 [Preview] No.31368 del
That poster on the second image is just gorgeous.

Bernd 11/10/2019 (Sun) 07:27:12 [Preview] No.31411 del
Oof, the way they write you can just tell that relations are a bit strained behind closed doors. Not that Orban really has much choice, the rest of Europe treats him with suspicion at best, so Erdogan is pretty much the best ally he has in the region so far. Plus, it seems like Hungary REALLY doesn't want to be doing trade in the energy sector with Russia.

>kurds are still oppressed in turkey

Honest question, why does the rest of Europe continued to behave like Turkish/Kurdish relations are still back at 80's levels?

Bernd 11/10/2019 (Sun) 09:27:01 [Preview] No.31416 del
>Honest question, why does the rest of Europe continued to behave like Turkish/Kurdish relations are still back at 80's levels?
Manipulating the reality gives you leverage and legitimation for your further actions.

Bernd 11/11/2019 (Mon) 23:53:48 [Preview] No.31452 del

Bernd 11/12/2019 (Tue) 17:06:31 [Preview] No.31524 del
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ISIS is weird, it's supposed to be contained in the middle east but then you have branches like Boko Haram in Nigeria. And something else in Sierra Krone and the Ivory Coast but that just may be something else.

Bernd 11/12/2019 (Tue) 17:38:15 [Preview] No.31552 del
>it's supposed to be contained in the middle east
Islam have spread to many places, and there will be people who would prefer IS. Even if it's many km's away.

Bernd 11/12/2019 (Tue) 18:02:59 [Preview] No.31559 del
Can I post about recent Israel happenings itt?

Bernd 11/12/2019 (Tue) 18:06:19 [Preview] No.31560 del
Pls do.

Bernd 11/13/2019 (Wed) 01:13:04 [Preview] No.31624 del
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Rebels are still fighting a back-and-forth struggle with the SDF & loyalists in this corner.

Bernd 11/13/2019 (Wed) 06:18:21 [Preview] No.31633 del
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Some fighting went down during the night there. Will see how events develop.
Meanwhile rebels at Idlib trying to reciprocate the shelling. They seem to be outmatched.

Bernd 11/14/2019 (Thu) 00:04:59 [Preview] No.31894 del
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Some autist interrupted a live broadcast of Erdogan's American visit.

Bernd 11/14/2019 (Thu) 00:08:57 [Preview] No.31896 del
he sounds like he is from here.

Bernd 11/14/2019 (Thu) 00:34:49 [Preview] No.31897 del
>Pentagon something something genocide
What did he say?

Bernd 11/14/2019 (Thu) 06:19:27 [Preview] No.31916 del
Maybe Assad can into visitings someday (without being danger of arrest or something).

This. That accent...

>something something guilty of genocide

Bernd 11/14/2019 (Thu) 09:00:09 [Preview] No.31928 del
>ISIS is weird, it's supposed to be contained in the middle east
It is as if they are Muslims.

But Shlomo told me in the news that isn't so and it perfectly save and the right thing to do to let in this children. Anything else would be literally Hitler!

Do you want to make little Anne Frank cry?

Bernd 11/14/2019 (Thu) 09:54:02 [Preview] No.31934 del
>erdoğan opposition Westerns
Erdog is if not member then supporter of "Muslim Brotherhod", like Quatar and the USA.
USA gave them asylum in Germany and helped them establishing themselves.

US State Department supported the "color revolution" against Mubarak like they did against the Shah.

Consider President Eisenhower. In 1953, the year before the Brotherhood was outlawed by Nasser, a covert US propaganda program headed by the US Information Agency brought over three dozen Islamic scholars and civic leaders

One of the leaders, according to Eisenhower’s appointment book, was “The Honorable Saeed Ramahdan, Delegate of the Muslim Brothers.”* The person in question (in more standard romanization, Said Ramadan), was the son-in-law of the Brotherhood’s founder and at the time widely described as the group’s “foreign minister.” (He was also the father of the controversial Swiss scholar of Islam, Tariq Ramadan.)

By the end of the decade, the CIA was overtly backing Ramadan. While it’s too simple to call him a US agent, in the 1950s and 1960s the United States supported him as he took over a mosque in Munich, kicking out local Muslims to build what would become one of the Brotherhood’s most important centers—a refuge for the beleaguered group during its decades in the wilderness.

In later years, he supported the Iranian revolution and likely aided the flight of a pro-Teheran activist who murdered one of the Shah’s diplomats in Washington.

By Bush’s second term, the US was losing two wars in the Muslim world and facing hostile Muslim minorities in Germany, France, and other European countries, where the Brotherhood had established an influential presence. The US quietly changed its position.

The Bush administration devised a strategy to establish close relations with Muslim groups in Europe that were ideologically close to the Brotherhood.

Bernd 11/14/2019 (Thu) 20:33:12 [Preview] No.32028 del
>zentralrat deutschland hat historische pflicht zur aufnahme von flüchtlingen.png


Bernd 11/15/2019 (Fri) 11:51:26 [Preview] No.32125 del
Why are you telling me this? Also know that it wasn't the first time to we're asked to support rebels. Like more than 50 years ago anti baathists wanted our support for coup. More than a decade ago we're asked to stir some shit up in İran by using Azerbayjani nationalists, same case for Iraqi Türkmens. Literally everyone with a half brain in my country knew muslim brotherhood and "moderate islam"ists were american puppet.

Until the west supported "moderate islam"ist leader instead of strict secular ones we had good foreign policy. It's another let's fund a freak so we have a legit reason to attack them tactic. Stay classy guys.

Bernd 12/20/2019 (Fri) 16:17:05 [Preview] No.33249 del
SAA is on the offensive in Idlib.

Bernd 12/22/2019 (Sun) 16:10:54 [Preview] No.33302 del
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Rebel frontlines have folded, a counterattack was attempted on the SAA's left flank but to no avail and now the offensive was broadened to the south. There's a Turkish observation point near Surman which is being bypassed. Loyalists are already nearing Jarjanaz.

Bernd 12/22/2019 (Sun) 18:56:20 [Preview] No.33310 del
Yeah, they making a pocket there. How much they can pinch off I wonder.

Bernd 12/30/2019 (Mon) 08:31:29 [Preview] No.33606 del
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They finished that cusp. They didn't create a pocket, just pushed back the frontline. I guess rebels withdrawn gradually, they knew they can't hold or launching a counter attack, and they would just lost manpower and war material if they allowed the SAA circle them.

Bernd 12/30/2019 (Mon) 11:12:23 [Preview] No.33607 del
It was disappointing, they were doing quite well. Maybe they all went on holiday.

Bernd 12/30/2019 (Mon) 11:48:53 [Preview] No.33608 del
Yeah this war turned to shit. Now SAA just mops up the patches.

Bernd 12/30/2019 (Mon) 12:09:42 [Preview] No.33609 del
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To be honest I'm not sure what are those rebels doing or hoping for. It's obvious the Syrian govt, will reclaim those lands and no outside help will arrive. They can get support from Turkey, material, but no troops. Via proxies from westerners too, but I don't think they bother much.
So the only place is left is the conference table. But time works for the Syrian govt. The more the rebels wait with surrender the less cards they'll have, the less they can negotiate with.

Bernd 12/30/2019 (Mon) 12:18:18 [Preview] No.33610 del
Apparently Turkey is sending SNA fighters to Libya, really bizarre. You would think they would at least set up a new Proxy force instead of importing one from another theatre and a theatre that is losing ground at that. I suspect that Turkey probably doesn't expect to hold Idlib, they just want the border areas already under their control.

Bernd 12/30/2019 (Mon) 12:31:56 [Preview] No.33611 del
Well Turkey is concerned about the Kurds and a Kurdis I don't think she has much against the Syrian govt. Turkbernd surely has more precise insight in this.
It does seem like the Syrian conflict is done, but Libya is still an open question. So it is more important to influence the outcome there out on the fields.

sage Bernd 12/30/2019 (Mon) 12:45:32 [Preview] No.33612 del
*Kurds and Kurdish independence,

Bernd 12/30/2019 (Mon) 19:07:57 [Preview] No.33620 del
Erdoğan needs foreign threats to keep his seat. We don't need to send soldiers to Libya every sane man knows that. It's typical "together united against the world" romanticism policy keeps him one piece and ruling.

most of the Turks doesnt concern about kurds, they concern about terrorists.

Bernd 12/30/2019 (Mon) 20:11:45 [Preview] No.33624 del
What's Erdo's justification for the intervention in Libya? Keeping Muslim brothers in power is good for Turkey?

Bernd 12/31/2019 (Tue) 00:30:14 [Preview] No.33633 del
>Syrian conflict is done
And now Erdogan needs to get rid of his Syrian proxies, so dispatching them to another warzone is a convenient disposal method.
A legalistic

Bernd 12/31/2019 (Tue) 00:32:41 [Preview] No.33634 del
excuse should be easy, as he's backing the internationally recognized government. And for Islamists, he can point to Haftar being the more secular side.

Bernd 12/31/2019 (Tue) 09:01:43 [Preview] No.33644 del
For enlarging territorial waters which will used for searching oil in medditerranean.

Of course he tries to justify this by saying Atatürk fought in there too (he was a volunteer against Italians and quite a succesfull one) but he forgets one thing. It's not our clay anymore. He also used justification that, UN recognizing that libyan guy, so it's legit. But the thing is UN recognizes Assad as sovereign ruler, so there is this one sided point of view of him.

Bernd 01/03/2020 (Fri) 03:27:50 [Preview] No.33733 del
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Press F to pay respects

Bernd 01/03/2020 (Fri) 06:19:45 [Preview] No.33734 del
What happened?

Bernd 01/03/2020 (Fri) 08:15:08 [Preview] No.33736 del
he kys'd

Bernd 01/03/2020 (Fri) 13:57:01 [Preview] No.33743 del
To think his death pumped up crypto a little bit, this must be how it feels to be a neocon

Bernd 01/03/2020 (Fri) 15:00:18 [Preview] No.33744 del
Mr Trump rocketed'd the dude while he was in Baghdad. He was some high ranking officer and apparently very liked person in Iran. Iran wants revenge. All that was done without declaration of war.

Bernd 01/03/2020 (Fri) 17:12:06 [Preview] No.33749 del
Err.. I see.

Thanks. I'll read up on it.

Bernd 01/03/2020 (Fri) 17:25:21 [Preview] No.33750 del
Basically what >>33744 said, also #WWIII is trending on twitter
Also reminder that america did a training to train soldiers for a future war against iran and lost.
Hope this turns into another vietnam

Bernd 01/03/2020 (Fri) 17:32:24 [Preview] No.33751 del
>All that was done without declaration of war.
Isn't that a given? Afaik 'state of war' in USA means just a formal recognition that they are going to increase civilian kills to the point that saying "oops" every time would be embarrassing, so don't expect them to.

Bernd 01/03/2020 (Fri) 17:40:14 [Preview] No.33752 del
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>starts a war against iran to get reelected
>posts us_fleg.jpeg

Bernd 01/03/2020 (Fri) 18:03:04 [Preview] No.33753 del
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It's hilariously stupid. At least Israel may cease to exist


Nice start for the decade

Bernd 01/03/2020 (Fri) 18:11:39 [Preview] No.33754 del
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FUCK YEAH LETS DO THIS. With love - Your friends at /pol/

Bernd 01/03/2020 (Fri) 18:52:45 [Preview] No.33755 del
>kill angry brown man to start war
>say it was greatest allies intel
>greatest ally gets attacked by angry brown country
>greatest ally turns to big orange for help
>big orange simply laughs before saying "USS Liberty, 1488D check mate"

Bernd 01/03/2020 (Fri) 18:59:33 [Preview] No.33757 del
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Bernd 01/03/2020 (Fri) 19:38:20 [Preview] No.33758 del
CNN says:
>Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said the airstrikes disrupted an "imminent attack" in the region that put American lives at risk.
What attack? Whomster against?

Bernd 01/03/2020 (Fri) 20:30:17 [Preview] No.33761 del
Haaretz says US deployed 750 soldiers in Kuwait (after an attack - by Iran-backed militias - against US embassy in Baghdad), and now they send 3000 more.

Bernd 01/03/2020 (Fri) 21:10:38 [Preview] No.33763 del

There was some attack on Iraqi/US base in region. Then counterattack of US on some bearded guys camp (Shia backed). Then protests around US embassy in Iraq after that attack.

And then this. Trump was very soft on Iran recently, so this looks like just typical show of power, like "hey guys, we are still the biggest guy in the room, don't forget about it"

Bernd 01/04/2020 (Sat) 08:19:52 [Preview] No.33767 del
Wait. Didn't the USA attacked first back in 2003 or something?

Bernd 01/04/2020 (Sat) 20:46:51 [Preview] No.33782 del
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How many d chess are these playing?
So this article says that:
- GNA is considered the legit govt. by the UN, therefor the free world, NATO, EU you name it
- GNA is supported by Turkey (since NATO takes their side it's given)
- LNA are rebels
- LNA is supported by Egypt, UAE and Russia
- the EU is establishing gas supply pipeline from Israel, via Grease and Cyprus
- Turkey supplies EU with gas from Russia via the TurkStream pipeline
- Turkey wants to establish common maritime border with Libya, he needs the GNA for this
- she does that to block the pipeline preserving the relevance of the TurkStream
This all means, that Turkey - and NATO led by the US - is supporting the enemy of a group that is supported by Russia to help Russia selling gas to EU, so they can block Israel the most important ally of the US in the region to do the same.
Which also means if the Russian backed rebels can oust the GNA then Israel, the most important ally of the US in the region, can sell gas to EU, but Russia will lose on the business.

Additional information:
- the article was written by an american
- the article was published in fuckin RT

Bernd 01/04/2020 (Sat) 22:22:46 [Preview] No.33783 del
That's why they say geopolitics is just theatre. Everything is hyper-confusing.

Bernd 01/05/2020 (Sun) 00:25:29 [Preview] No.33785 del

Bernd 01/05/2020 (Sun) 00:50:35 [Preview] No.33787 del
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is just an Islamic extremist dictator!

Bernd 01/05/2020 (Sun) 02:25:08 [Preview] No.33789 del
Erdogan's not even relevant anymore. He's just going to sit it out while other countries take sides (since Turkey is both NATO, and has somewhat of an alliance with Iran and Russia).

Bernd 01/05/2020 (Sun) 07:32:19 [Preview] No.33792 del
This reminds me the sabre rattling with North Korea. Except now elections are coming and he needs to do the most to his face be there in every home in every mind.
I don't think so this will evolve into an open conflict with Iran. At how many places US soldiers are deployed? Can they afford more fronts?
I think they withdrew forces from Syria they just need a good reason to shove them somewhere. The neighbourhood (like Iraq or Kuwait) will do fine.
Maybe he can rile up emotions, then play the peacemaker. The US dun goofed with Syria, she was taken away by Russia and Turkey (and Iran, but they are less in the media). With NK the situation is almost jovial. What big baddies are there really? China? It's an important source of consumercrap and the "trade war is going on anyway". That leaves basically Iran.

I wonder what he EU will say. Most of us are in the NATO, and the countries that matters (Germany, France and UK) were trying to make dealings with Iran, just think of this nuclear program question.

Bernd 01/05/2020 (Sun) 07:39:51 [Preview] No.33793 del
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Nothing prevents Turkey to get agreement with LNA (at least article doesn't have any argument about this).


Nothing will happen.

Bernd 01/05/2020 (Sun) 08:19:22 [Preview] No.33794 del
Except LNA isn't the politically correct side to pick.
Furthermore I assume there are other things to play, hence the 3d (4? 5? 6?) chess.

Bernd 01/05/2020 (Sun) 08:43:49 [Preview] No.33797 del
>Except LNA isn't the politically correct side to pick.

For Turkey? I don't think they care much.

Bernd 01/05/2020 (Sun) 08:46:17 [Preview] No.33798 del
They are NATO.

Bernd 01/05/2020 (Sun) 08:47:44 [Preview] No.33799 del
Also LNA is backed by Russians.
The two countries can make economical deals, but they cannot be on the same side of a military conflict, and maybe not on political sides.

Bernd 01/05/2020 (Sun) 09:06:54 [Preview] No.33800 del
Backing the GNA will push Libya into the Turkish Sphere if they win, backing the LNA won't to the same degree as they would be competing with Russia and Russia has more pull than Turkey does. They probably have other deals with the LNA as well.

Bernd 01/05/2020 (Sun) 09:07:31 [Preview] No.33801 del
I meant other deals with the GNA.

Bernd 01/05/2020 (Sun) 21:22:32 [Preview] No.33812 del
>just need a good reason to shove them somewhere. The neighbourhood...will do fine.
iraq is likely out of the question

Bernd 01/05/2020 (Sun) 21:37:32 [Preview] No.33813 del
Even with that it's not like NATO troops will leave overnight. The withdrawal can go on indefinitely.
Also this could fit into the peacemaker narrative. The US obligation of leaving might give Trump an excuse to give an empty gesture to Iran they can find acceptable without them losing face, troops return home, Trump can close the war in Iraw finally which goes on 16 17 years now. Gets reelected.

Bernd 01/05/2020 (Sun) 21:46:24 [Preview] No.33814 del
>Nothing will happen.
That's what people said before WWI.
Now this happened:

Bernd 01/05/2020 (Sun) 21:55:08 [Preview] No.33815 del
They need Saudi Arabia (a major US front) to win the war. If they go wrong in Saudi Arabia, or if they try to stay away from the conflict, then they're fucked.
They need to withdraw from Afghanistan since the quagmire over there has basically resulted in them losing. Also, the Taliban are still heavily at odds with Iran (despite officially not being at conflict, they used to be, and they personally hate the Iranians being an anti-Sunni theocracy)

Bernd 01/05/2020 (Sun) 22:03:26 [Preview] No.33819 del
Don't forget the LNA's ties to France and Israel.

Bernd 01/05/2020 (Sun) 22:24:30 [Preview] No.33820 del
Btw Saudis. What's up with Yemen now?

Tell me more.

Bernd 01/05/2020 (Sun) 22:36:08 [Preview] No.33822 del
Basically nothing. "Yemen" is just a drug wasteland now.

Bernd 01/06/2020 (Mon) 00:53:26 [Preview] No.33825 del
Israel's support is natural given the pipeline situation but it's very subtle. France's aims are harder to make out but its weapons have been found in the LNA's possession, though it's not open about it.
As neither of them like to talk about it Turks are among the biggest accusers:


Bernd 01/06/2020 (Mon) 09:14:56 [Preview] No.33832 del
(73.21 KB 500x560 iran-and-saudi.jpg)
>That's what people said before WWI.

And also that's what people said multiple times, and war didn't happen.

Compared to WWI, USA and Iran have no real points for serious conflict anyway (even when USA allies ask for this), and Iran is too strong for swift and easy takeover like Iraq was. Going into big bloody war is hard even for superpower like USA, if there is no real reason like defending own national territory. So, maybe it will end in some random strikes, maybe it will end in nothing at all. Iranians and related people, be they government sponsored or just fanatical guys, will surely do some things (like recent attack on Kenya), but probability of big long war is small. Also both sides (Iran and USA) aren't fanatical or mad, even if media paints them as such. We'll recently seen a good example of conflict between two normal countries (India vs Pakistan), when escalation suddenly stopped.

Of course I can be wrong, but predicting the future is hard task anyway.

Also, I don't recommend reading Trump's twitter at all. Or at least taking his writing seriously. It is written for specific audience, not for anyone like us.

Bernd 01/06/2020 (Mon) 16:06:10 [Preview] No.33833 del
>Compared to WWI, USA and Iran have no real points for serious conflict anyway
Right now Iran has a bunch of proxies in Iraq and in Lebanon, and the USA is blaming them for smashing up their embassy.
>too strong for swift and easy takeover
How about the Taliban? Though they aren't as strong, they were dealing with a much harsher environment and they were conquered fairly quickly and switched to insurgency.

Bernd 01/06/2020 (Mon) 16:06:41 [Preview] No.33834 del
So Iran isn't "Afghanistan on steroids". In-fact, it's less harsh than Afghanistan.

Bernd 01/06/2020 (Mon) 17:18:14 [Preview] No.33837 del
Hm. The first article isn't the freshest and not very good proofs of French support. This line is interesting tho:
>Haftar [...] Backed by the UAE, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia, and with political support from Russia and the US
Second link is kinda fresh. Also confirms that an LNA led Lybia would help Israel with the pipeline.
And both article brings the Saudis into the picture as well.

Those are good points.
>Trump's twitter
>It is written for specific audience, not for anyone like us.
Well true, and ofc we shouldn't take them seriously. But they can tell much, like that tweet earlier before Turkey started the "invasion" into Kurdish areas, and they had to pull US troops back, but allow Assad to send forces to "defend" the Kurds... Pretty gud reflection on the situation there, when everyone enveryone's enemy and ally at the same time directly or via proxies and he has to cover his and US diplomacy's ass while telling the world what's going on.

Bernd 01/06/2020 (Mon) 19:40:10 [Preview] No.33843 del
>How about the Taliban? Though they aren't as strong, they were dealing with a much harsher environment and they were conquered fairly quickly and switched to insurgency.

Taliban had no real state nor united army, it was bunch of local armies hardened in constant war, joined in some kind of confederation. And that is why in first "real" fight with proper army they failed and moved straight to insurgency phase (some of them were just bought).

Iran has army, militia, large and relatively civilized population, proper economic and state. They even have military industry, maybe not best, but it isn't last industry in the world. They couldn't be easily crushed by limited bombing and fast troop strike. Of course USA will win long conventional war, but there will be casualties from US side, much more that in first phases of Iraq or Afghanistan war. Then war will go into insurgency stage, so it will be like Afghan, but on larger scale.

Good example is Serbia. In reality Serbs weren't finished by air phase of war (even most of their tanks survived), and they surrendered only because of political reasons (they also didn't want casualties). If Serbs were more stubborn and ideologically prepared, NATO would need to start land phase, and no one in NATO really wanted it (because casualties would be much bigger). It is easy to bomb someone in remote land with 100 soldiers dead, but would modern European country accept 10000 soldier deaths, especially when they are dying for unknown purpose? That is why most of modern conflicts are done with local proxy infantry, even Turks in Syria don't use own troops freely. And Iran is much stronger than Serbia in 1999.

Who will do land invasion into Iran? Saudis are only country that may want it, but they couldn't even beat some bearded guys in Yemen. Jews from Israel are too smart for this anyway, so they wouldn't. Maybe in future, when Iran collapses under some crisis and internal turmoil it would be easier, but now they are too big to be conquered by small expedition force.

>Right now Iran has a bunch of proxies in Iraq and in Lebanon, and the USA is blaming them for smashing up their embassy.

I guess everything will be limited to bombing proxy forces (by US) and terror acts (by proxies). Iraq will suffer anyway, they are in the middle.

By the way, there are conspiracy theories already, like Iranian government desided to remove Suleimani because he is dangerous for current leadership, and used Americans help in exchange of something, like new nuclear deal that will happen after current escalation.

Bernd 01/06/2020 (Mon) 20:14:16 [Preview] No.33844 del
I don't think USA could win a war. They still haven't really won nor in Afghanistan neither in Iraq don't matter what they say. Iran would be another mire to be bogged down.
>conspiracy theories already, like Iranian government desided to remove Suleimani
I think the CIA has the next guy in line in their pocket. And now that guy is already in place.
There is also an opinion (I think from Israeli viewpoint) that Suleimani was an idiot that the US did a favor to Iran to remove him.
How Russian of you to misspell it.

Bernd 01/06/2020 (Mon) 20:58:42 [Preview] No.33846 del
>I don't think USA could win a war

It also hard to really understand what will be considered a "win" in Afghanistan. Crush local forces and technically occupy country? They did it quickly. Install new government? This also happened. Stop the fighting between Taliban-like structures and that new government? This requires a good genocide, it couldn't be made in modern times. USA may install Taliban as new government, and they'll do that genocide though, but looks like that option is still unavailable for some reason.

So, there is no real goal now. Although I don't know what was their goal from the start, and I guess they don't know either.

>How Russian of you to misspell it.

English is hard. Why they need two different letters for one sound?

Bernd 01/06/2020 (Mon) 21:41:36 [Preview] No.33847 del
>It also hard to really understand what will be considered a "win"
>So, there is no real goal now.
Yeah, that's that. Even back in Vietnam there wasn't a real goal (that could have been presented to the people and accepted by them) fighting no real enemy (since American troops couldn't enter the north and conquer it) on nonexistent fronts (which actually were everywhere).
And this situation now smells the same, if they try to hold the foothold in Iraq, they'll fight Iranian backed proxy forces, but they can't enter Iran and defeat them properly, so it can go on and on, even through generations.

>Why they need two different letters for one sound?
Yeah, they do that all the time. Such silliness.

Bernd 01/06/2020 (Mon) 22:35:23 [Preview] No.33849 del
>Taliban had no real state nor united army, it was bunch of local armies hardened in constant war, joined in some kind of confederation
The Taliban was a unified army under a leader (Mullah Omar) that had the full support of much of the Pashtun population that it led, and controlled and had a central government in Kabul in which most people there had to swear an oath to a leader, which is very important in Afghanistan. The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan was de-facto a state, it was only unrecognised, and even then, it still had support from Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.

Bernd 01/07/2020 (Tue) 02:44:35 [Preview] No.33852 del
They were also in a state of civil war against the Northern Alliance before the US even got involved.

Bernd 01/07/2020 (Tue) 08:37:06 [Preview] No.33857 del
(3.94 MB 720x580 gondola-afgan.webm)
>The Taliban was a unified army under a leader (Mullah Omar) that had the full support of much of the Pashtun population that it led, and controlled and had a central government in Kabul in which most people there had to swear an oath to a leader, which is very important in Afghanistan.

But then many of local commanders (technically still warlords) joined Northern Alliance in Mazari-Sharif for example, and I guess many more just defected or changed sides in conflict.

This is Asian thing though, when people are loyal to another people, not to some abstract thing like country or nation (also that is why killing Suleimani matters - he was powerful men with skill, contacts and chain of command). Iraq quickly collapsed in second war by this scenario too, general just switched sides or quit, and many of Iraqi army units didn't even fight.

It is hard to say, could this be happen in Iran or not. Considering their history and state of the country, they must be less prone to these things, but who knows.

Bernd 01/08/2020 (Wed) 00:38:55 [Preview] No.33873 del
>No Danish soldiers injured: Danish Armed Forces
Okay, it's confirmed Iran is now launching ballistic missiles into NATO bases in Iraq. The US is definitely going to respond to this.

Bernd 01/08/2020 (Wed) 01:39:02 [Preview] No.33874 del
Now British Airways BA134, coming from India to London has stopped near Kuwait.

Bernd 01/08/2020 (Wed) 01:53:48 [Preview] No.33876 del
that sounds exaggerated. another tweet claiming 30 casualties? i feel like if any of those two were true, iran would be glass right now.

Bernd 01/08/2020 (Wed) 01:59:57 [Preview] No.33877 del
I think they mean Type 313 missiles.

Bernd 01/08/2020 (Wed) 02:19:13 [Preview] No.33878 del
Yes, it was type 313 missiles. The actual damage (on the Al-Asad airbase) didn't seem to be so big, seeing a video of it, though I'm sure there were a few US casualties.

Bernd 01/08/2020 (Wed) 03:26:33 [Preview] No.33880 del
Possibly, but then the missiles would have been picked up and they would know they are coming, I am not sure of the details of the base but it could be that the US portion had bunkers that the US troops could use to wait out such an attack and maybe the Iraqis didn't(or were not told and had less time to prepare).

Bernd 01/08/2020 (Wed) 06:44:05 [Preview] No.33885 del
>>No Danish soldiers injured: Danish Armed Forces
Reminded me: "during the filming of this movie no animals were harmed", kek

Yeah a comment below says so, Fateh-313.

I'm reading in the news, that two sites were attacked, one is Erbil in the north where international contingent is stationed, Hungarians too (about 200). Two rockets "reached" the target: one was a near miss, but it was dead anyway so no explosion, the other misses by 33 kms.
There were warnings so both here and at al-Assad soldiers could retreat to their panic-rooms.
US claims no casualties.
Iran says this was a self-defense action, international/UN law allows it, it's no act of war.

I think they spent the last days searching for some loophole so they can do something but not really do something so they don't lose face, and what they can sell to their own citizens.

Bernd 01/08/2020 (Wed) 07:09:28 [Preview] No.33886 del
>I think they spent the last days searching for some loophole so they can do something but not really do something so they don't lose face, and what they can sell to their own citizens.

Yes, you would think the US rhetoric to such an attack would be quite aggressive but Trump was actually quite calm about it and it looks like the situation has died right down with not a single US or Iranian soldier being lost. >>33843 may be closer to the truth than one would have first thought(not that I actually am wholly convinced).

Bernd 01/08/2020 (Wed) 17:22:13 [Preview] No.33889 del
>. >>33843 may be closer to the truth than one would have first thought
Way too many times I can agree with his point. He is a scholar and a gentleman. But don't tell him this tho.
To be honest I frequently feel I'm the stupidest around here, I'm just the most "social" I think.

Bernd 01/08/2020 (Wed) 20:36:28 [Preview] No.33893 del
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CNN now talks about deescalation and backing down n shiet.
On Reuters I read Trump talked about Iran standing down since no Americans were harmed in the missile strikes. Aljazeera says the same, also regional and world leaders called for deescalation. Oh all of them mentions new sanctions.
>Iran’s television said over 80 U.S. forces have been reportedly killed in the missile strikes, citing a source close to the IRGC.

In Iraq early elections are coming, they'll have - if everything goes in order - a new govt in the next two weeks. And then they hope to expel foreign troops and restore independence.

I don't like this map. I assumes that the missiles will be launched from the center of Iran.

Bernd 01/09/2020 (Thu) 06:52:11 [Preview] No.33896 del
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What happened with the Ukro airplane over Iran? I put this link here for later read.
Anyway this explosive situation seems to be dying down. Another article says the assassination of Suleimani helps the Iraninan govt. stop losing popularity and restore inner stability.

Meanwhile in Syria changed little. Some ISIS activity near Deir ez-Zor.

Bernd 01/09/2020 (Thu) 13:26:37 [Preview] No.33897 del
What if it was an inside job, or if the death was intentionally faked to create a strong Iran for a potential war?

Bernd 01/09/2020 (Thu) 18:03:36 [Preview] No.33914 del
>What happened with the Ukro airplane over Iran?
Probably trigger-happy Iranian AA.

Bernd 01/09/2020 (Thu) 21:14:32 [Preview] No.33921 del

Yes, that is one theory, although it is strange. It is possible when you have lonely aircraft suddenly appearing in some air defense region, but there is a route where many planes fly every day. Air defense crew always see this on radar, yet at that night they mistake civilian plane for enemy target? Although this is a possible situation. It isn't comparable with MH17 for many reasons.

If that happened, Iran is in bad condition. They already lost many people just at funeral of Suleimani, now they shoot civilian plane. Maybe USA just need to wait.

Another theory, widely circulated in media, is engine failure. Boeing of same type had fan blade failure resulting in one dead passenger (blade penetrated hull) some time ago. This is pretty bad thing, because engine must be protected from this, as regulations stay (engine hull must contain any broken fan blade). Technically it isn't Boeing fail (engine is made by French), but it is Boeing task to control this.


And story about 737 MAX is still going, so Boeing surely doesn't want another reputation hit, and will try to blame everything to move investigation into other side.

Bernd 01/09/2020 (Thu) 23:40:57 [Preview] No.33929 del
>What happened with the Ukro airplane over Iran?
Trump said, sic, "it was flying over pretty rough neighborhood", so I'll believe him.

In NWO we don't do silly things like declare wars (=asking for it), we just know that some states are run by democrats (Detroit, Iran, all these kinds of antifa-terrorist-etc enclaves), and those kinds of rough neighborhoods may result in planes getting shot down.

Bernd 01/10/2020 (Fri) 06:28:21 [Preview] No.33939 del
>it was flying over pretty rough neighborhood
Aint't that the truth?

Bernd 01/10/2020 (Fri) 21:55:05 [Preview] No.33954 del
>it is strange
>there is a route where many planes fly every day. Air defense crew always see this on radar,
Also it was on outbound course from Iron to Ukraine, and not inbound:
Funny line:
>Ukraine is looking at various possible causes of the crash, including an attack by a Russian-made missile
Putin personally shot down the airplane.
More fun:
>Tehran said earlier that it may ask Russia, Canada, France or Ukraine for help in a probe that could take one or two years to complete.
Iran might wanna manipulate data if really they downed it.
France might wanna manipulate data if the engine was faulty.
Ukraine might wanna manipulate data to blame Russia for the missiles.
Russia might wanna manipulate data to cover up their fault due missiles.
Canada... well Trudeau blames Iran, saying they downed the craft, but do they have any motivation for data tampering?

Bernd 01/17/2020 (Fri) 21:47:15 [Preview] No.34100 del
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Rebels advanced over some villages.

Bernd 01/18/2020 (Sat) 08:14:48 [Preview] No.34106 del
I guess their closer goal is Marrat al-Newman and the M5 road there.
Where can I find that map you use sometimes, like here >>33302 ? It has physical layer which offers more info in itself.

Bernd 01/20/2020 (Mon) 19:06:13 [Preview] No.34157 del
>Where can I find that map you use sometimes
Those are periodically made by mapmakers.

Bernd 01/21/2020 (Tue) 06:31:51 [Preview] No.34168 del
Oh yeah, I followed the watermark to muraselon.com

Bernd 01/23/2020 (Thu) 19:13:00 [Preview] No.34217 del
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Hmm. Activities shifted to the north in Idlib area. It mostly just shelling and bombing no engagements.

Bernd 01/23/2020 (Thu) 19:34:53 [Preview] No.34218 del
Erdogan is a lot more sensitive about the north, he would veto any offensive there. West of the M5 there are sometimes skirmishes in Latakia and the Ghab plain but those places are locked in attrition warfare, understandably for Latakia as it's rough terrain but not for the plain.

Bernd 01/23/2020 (Thu) 20:49:55 [Preview] No.34222 del
Now that I saw a physical map (openstreetmap) it seems the most open way to Idlib is straight from the east. Lucky for the SAA. I wonder what kind of resistance is there about, fortifications, units.
Made me think if google taking sat images there and if the war left recognizable imprint on the landscape.

Bernd 01/24/2020 (Fri) 19:25:59 [Preview] No.34235 del
And suddenly red dots everywhere with neat little bombs on them.
Judging by those two green Kalashnikovs (they say rebels stopped advancing, infiltrating SAA troops) about those two depressions in the front the govt. forces started a new offensive.

Bernd 01/24/2020 (Fri) 19:30:54 [Preview] No.34236 del
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Bernd 01/26/2020 (Sun) 02:45:27 [Preview] No.34253 del
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Knock knock.

Bernd 01/26/2020 (Sun) 07:21:39 [Preview] No.34254 del
Who's there?

Bernd 01/26/2020 (Sun) 21:54:12 [Preview] No.34281 del
(601.97 KB 1189x786 idlib 26 jan 2020.png)
Rebels counterattacked the army's spearhead pointed at Maraat al-Numan to no avail and have now lost the city's northern flank and highway connection. There's more activity elsewhere, a lot of loyalist casualties in Aleppo, a car bomb in Azaz and Turkish shelling of yellow territory.

Bernd 01/27/2020 (Mon) 06:45:48 [Preview] No.34283 del
Last news from 7 hours ago. Situation seems to be the same.
I wonder how precise this map is. I tried reading news (syrianews, aljazeera, reuters) but they report only very vaguely. No settlement names at all, or just the most important (Ma’rat al-Numan).

Bernd 01/27/2020 (Mon) 21:05:39 [Preview] No.34303 del
(422.54 KB 1189x752 idlib 27 jan 2020.png)
SAA is going all out on the highway.
>I wonder how precise this map is
It just compiles information from a number of sources and displays it cartographically. Back in the day a source would report a territorial change and another source from the opposing side would say "no, the attack was pushed back" or "we lost the village but counterattacked and regained it". But it's been long since I last heard contradicting information like that.

Bernd 01/28/2020 (Tue) 06:31:00 [Preview] No.34305 del
I see.
The offensives are one sided too now, maybe there are no important changes happens on that level to worth noting it. Or maybe those who could make corrections in the media, journalists, are way less in numbers in the rebel camp now that the situation is getting really dangerous.
They report on the condemnation by the US govt. of this attack. This isn't in the headlines of the front pages of news sites, so I guess it isn't a big thing. How often the US govt does such thing? Is it a routine? "While we cannot do about it anything we have to condemn the Assad regime." Or maybe this happened now because of the tension with Iran?

Bernd 01/28/2020 (Tue) 18:01:16 [Preview] No.34321 del
They are in. Also made advancement at Aleppo.

Bernd 01/30/2020 (Thu) 12:36:31 [Preview] No.34365 del
SAA still has momentum and rides down the highway to Saraqib. Makes sense as the terrain is unfavorable to the west. Aleppo was a lot harder, the rebels even briefly advanced there.

Bernd 01/30/2020 (Thu) 12:40:46 [Preview] No.34366 del
>Ramuse Artillery base
>1070 apartments
Familiar names.
In other news HTS installed communications equipment over the central hospital in Idlib, which ceased operations in response.

Bernd 01/30/2020 (Thu) 18:50:48 [Preview] No.34377 del
I imagine in he south the SAA had the main task force, where they could hope for the least resistance and a more favourable avenue. Maybe they also got lucky and punched a hole at the M5.

Bernd 01/31/2020 (Fri) 11:39:02 [Preview] No.34394 del
(562.61 KB 1188x750 idlib 31 jan 2020.png)
Arbiter Erdogan sounds his whistle.

Bernd 02/15/2020 (Sat) 18:53:02 [Preview] No.34403 del
Shelling and bombing is getting prepared the opposition for a renewed attack.

Bernd 02/16/2020 (Sun) 00:40:07 [Preview] No.34414 del
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You got the direction right, north of Aleppo. But they're moving west of the actual road in a pincer movement. The northern flanks is moving from YPG territory and sources clash on YPG proper partaking in the fighting.
Meanwhile repair work is ongoing in the M5.

Bernd 02/16/2020 (Sun) 06:53:50 [Preview] No.34418 del
So many happenings have happened while the site was down... Sad.

I really wonder what Erdogan will do, it's getting to the point where a confrontation is inevitable. Either the Turks are going to leave or they are going to have to do something.

Bernd 02/16/2020 (Sun) 09:04:49 [Preview] No.34422 del
Well, they will try and cut off that corner.
YPG participating would gain them some goodwill at minimum. I dunno what was the Kurds situation in Syria before the war, but they can be important elements of rebuilding the country after the war.

Yes. We were at sportschan during downtime: https://sportschan.wrigel.xyz/kc
We had some discussions there.
I think Erdo will posture like a cock (the bird, not the penis) until the new lines, "security zones" are getting made. They continue to send war materials to the rebels, and try avoiding more Turkish soldiers killed. So they'll do something without actually doing anything.

Bernd 02/16/2020 (Sun) 16:43:38 [Preview] No.34430 del
Rebels giving up that corner. Wonder at what line the front will solidify.

Bernd 02/16/2020 (Sun) 17:23:06 [Preview] No.34432 del
Not much in the northern pincer. Maybe it's just a distraction attack, rebels are better entrenched in the older frontline or YPG, a poorly armed force, is indeed participating. At the national level SDF have lengthy serious discussions with the government about reconciliation but they've never gone anywhere due to mutual stubbornness and American obstruction. The many groups in the SDF have different opinions, those closer to Turkey are friendlier to Assad while Arabs, particularly old FSA groups, refuse a deal. What happens is concrete cooperation at the local level and Afrin is a particularly close example, the local YPG were the only non-hostile border in the Nubl&Zahraa pocket and local NDF later repaid the favor helping out during Olive Branch. Or the YPG along the border in general, which invited the army to protect them from the most recent Turkish invasion.

Bernd 02/16/2020 (Sun) 18:23:38 [Preview] No.34434 del
I reckon the danger of an encirclement and being cut off might have been enough to decide to empty out the area.

Bernd 02/17/2020 (Mon) 19:09:26 [Preview] No.34452 del
Straightening out the front.

Bernd 02/17/2020 (Mon) 23:20:42 [Preview] No.34465 del
Yellow skull is a report of SDF casualties, maybe they really were participating but kept a low profile. The road from Aleppo to Menagh airbase is open. Flights to Damascus and Cairo will soon resume from Aleppo. From what it seems this operation should go on for a while.

Bernd 02/18/2020 (Tue) 06:25:21 [Preview] No.34466 del
It seems they have the momentum.
From the shelling, which renewed around Idlib again, they might just push further, and no security zone will be established.

Bernd 02/19/2020 (Wed) 00:38:23 [Preview] No.34491 del
Nothing for today, it seems.

Bernd 02/19/2020 (Wed) 01:38:11 [Preview] No.34493 del
Maybe, it will be interesting to see what happens when they reach the border area. They are going to be have fire control over the roads leading into Syria but also Turkey may decide that they will just shell the Syrians from within Turkey itself if they get that close, making it hard to respond(but then I guess they have been shelling them any way and it hasn't done much to stop them).

Bernd 02/19/2020 (Wed) 06:27:22 [Preview] No.34495 del
The shelling is getting stopped. Right now I suspect they will really create that security zone in the end.
Oh well, every fun has to end sometimes, even butchering each other.

Bernd 02/19/2020 (Wed) 18:51:23 [Preview] No.34500 del
I have to correct myself. They probably still want that piece of road south of Idlib (M4?).

Bernd 02/19/2020 (Wed) 19:32:31 [Preview] No.34501 del
There are reports of reinforcements moving precisely into that direction, towards Saraqib which is at the M4/M5 junction. The next target would then be Arihah.

Bernd 02/20/2020 (Thu) 16:12:17 [Preview] No.34512 del
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Bernd 02/20/2020 (Thu) 16:33:40 [Preview] No.34514 del
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Were you missed the turn and ended up in Syria?
>not pine air freshener

Bernd 02/20/2020 (Thu) 16:34:32 [Preview] No.34515 del
I mean, did you miss ofc.

Bernd 02/20/2020 (Thu) 20:47:08 [Preview] No.34521 del
I think it's just part of the sabre rattling, for the show that Erdogan is very serious. I doubt real conflict will arise. But if WWIII breaks out, what can we do?

Bernd 02/20/2020 (Thu) 20:50:46 [Preview] No.34522 del
>Were you missed the turn and ended up in Syria?

I ask myself same question when I see local roads.

>not pine air freshener

Not a boring common pine, but majestic grape!

Also, I don't like hanging things, but have a guard dog.

Bernd 02/20/2020 (Thu) 22:21:42 [Preview] No.34527 del
Busy day in Neyrab. Loyalists attacked. To great fanfare and announcements of a grand offensive towards the encircled observation posts, rebels counterattacked with massive Turkish support. Russia called Erdogan's bluff and just leveled them off with airstrikes, allowing loyalists to countercounterattack. They're back in control of the city.
Meanwhile evidence of Turkish weapons in HTS hands continues to surface.

Bernd 02/21/2020 (Fri) 16:33:20 [Preview] No.34539 del
That machine gunner in the second with at 0:15. Looks liek an American neckbeard basement dweller.

Some bombing along M4.

Bernd 02/21/2020 (Fri) 20:03:39 [Preview] No.34541 del
Macron and Merkel made a symbolic gesture to fulfill their obligations.

Bernd 02/23/2020 (Sun) 00:10:26 [Preview] No.34569 del
The three plus Erdogan will meet on the 5th of March to discuss the crisis. Meanwhile Assad prepares to attack the M4 and show his superiority on the ground. If Russia makes any move towards a truce Syria can place pressure by striking further on the ground. This took place earlier in the offensive, when Assad was told to slow down but continued to escalate, and in the end Russia stayed on his side and continued to provide air support.

Bernd 02/23/2020 (Sun) 09:03:57 [Preview] No.34583 del
Aah, I see. So Russia is committed herself too much as well. They can't do much else just "escape forward" on the side of Assad if he decides to take things further than comfortable.

Bernd 02/23/2020 (Sun) 10:01:08 [Preview] No.34585 del
Looks like Turkey has been harassing the northern areas a bit more than normal. Who knows what they plan on doing up there, probably not all that much though.

Bernd 02/23/2020 (Sun) 20:33:15 [Preview] No.34599 del
Since they created that security zone there's always some activity about.
Now that the campaign started in it's earnest at Idlib, this activity became more serious. There should be SAA forces around that blue and not SDF I believe so it's maybe for engaging those units. There's some shelling in Afrin region too, what left on "Kurdish" hand.

Bernd 02/23/2020 (Sun) 22:49:55 [Preview] No.34601 del
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First villages begin to fall. Instead of an encirclement movement SAA is attacking the south.

The frequency of artillery strikes rose a bit but the skirmishes are the same. Elsewhere ISIS has gotten stronger in SDF territory since the Turkish invasion as forces had to be diverted to the border.

Bernd 02/23/2020 (Sun) 22:50:19 [Preview] No.34602 del
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haha Banin :DDDDD

Bernd 02/24/2020 (Mon) 17:22:50 [Preview] No.34626 del
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It began.

Bernd 02/25/2020 (Tue) 12:35:41 [Preview] No.34641 del
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SAA punches through the southern frontlines and approaches the largest nearby target, Kafranbel. To the north rebels advanced towards Nayrab and came under bombing, with the city's control unclear.

Bernd 02/25/2020 (Tue) 23:40:58 [Preview] No.34659 del
Looks like rebels are still in Nayrab. No wonder they're obsessed with that front, it's very close to Idlib city and allows an attack on Saraqib which, if successful, would deny both the M4 and M5 to the regime. But it's doubtful if they can hold it for long. Meanwhile they're facing great losses in the south with Kafranbel falling. It used to be famous for its demonstrations with political cartoons and English-language banners.

Bernd 02/26/2020 (Wed) 06:46:27 [Preview] No.34663 del
SAA still has a long way to go from the south.
It's so obvious those were drawn for them.

Bernd 02/26/2020 (Wed) 19:11:39 [Preview] No.34672 del
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Govt. had some gains, as expected.

Bernd 02/26/2020 (Wed) 21:31:41 [Preview] No.34675 del
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Rebels have finally managed to advance and have possibly cut off the M5.

Bernd 02/27/2020 (Thu) 06:14:51 [Preview] No.34677 del
Nice turn of events. Very one sided action up until now.

Bernd 02/27/2020 (Thu) 14:22:58 [Preview] No.34679 del
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Big news, Saraqib just fell.

Bernd 02/27/2020 (Thu) 16:44:29 [Preview] No.34681 del
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Judging by the quick movement of the SAA in the south, the rebels pulled out everyone they could from that area, leaving token forces there, just enough to make a little resistance. Not ten days earlier they shortened their lines in the north. This meant they could regroup units about Idlib, and with the Turkish reinforcement and supplies they were able to execute this push, maybe with a local numerical superiority, since the opposing forces were concentrated elsewhere.
Most likely their swan song.

Meanwhile corona is arriving to the scene. A destroyed country with weakened population, where the situation is already a humanitarian catastrophe, prime target.

Bernd 02/27/2020 (Thu) 20:38:14 [Preview] No.34685 del
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I'm informing meself a little of Syrian history to get some context on Syria's place in the world and it's internal politics. I didn't know she had "personal union" with Egypt for three years when the two countries formed a common republic and Nasser was the president.
I'm using the Contemporary Archive of the Islamic World, Volume 1, Syria 1975/76-2018 (Edited by Anthony Axon and Susan Hewitt, Brill, 2019), just running through the timeline for now. I wonder why the book starts at 1975/76. Hafez al-Assad came to power five years earlier, and the ruling Ba'ath Party seized control in '63. Was their occupation of Lebanon so important? Maybe the reason for the starting date is in the Preface or something.

So basically Syria became independent in 1945-46, since then it had several conflicts with Israel, as a member of the Arab League, along Egypt, on the apropos of the Golan Heights, and in Lebanon. Also a usual opponent of Iraq and a natural ally of Iran. The timeline doesn't mentions Turkey only for her role she played by allowing the formation of an Syrian opposition faction in Istanbul. Since 2002 Syria is massaged by the US, accusing her with supporting terrorists and acquiring weapons of mass destruction.
I really have to squint into the book to tell something about the internal affairs. It looks like they have a de facto one party system with the Socialist Ba'ath Party controlling the politics, they helped Bashar, the son of Hafez into power too. Apparently a quite large number of residents doesn't/didn't have citizenship, Kurds, who form about 15% of the population got citizenship only recently. Some religious softening is also going on, niqab was banned, in favor of hijab.
During the Arab Spring the same went down as in Lybia: while civilian unrest was going on (I assume also fueled by foreign powers), and troops switched sides to help rebels, foreign powers demanded Assad to be more lenient toward them and stop suppressing them, stop fighting. Assad did better than Gaddafi.

Also Hafez al-Assad had big heda.

Bernd 02/28/2020 (Fri) 01:46:44 [Preview] No.34691 del
Being as important as Idlib is they were always going to be strongest near to it and any pulling of forces from the front in that area was likely to have that result. One would think they would be aware of that but they must have deemed the trade off to be worth it.

Bernd 02/28/2020 (Fri) 06:36:05 [Preview] No.34693 del
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Yeah, you're right. They should have expected it, they either rejected the idea of a counterattack or they judged the result as good trade off and/or temporary.

Meanwhile many eye catching happening all around. US convoy intercepted at the Turkish border in the north east, Israeli helicopter attack in the south west, extensive Turkish shelling, not only at the Idlib front and SE of Afrin, but as far as Hama and close to Latakia (at an airport). Reaching social media from Turkey was restricted for a while as well.
Yesterday there was a discussion about Syria in UN security council.
Events following each other thicker and thicker. I still believe the conflict won't be renewed, local base is too small and limited into specific areas. While Turkey and Russia is now really involved, and they are one step away from an actual war (as long as Turkish and Russian soldiers doesn't shoot at each other with handguns they won't deem it as an open conflict), they won't risk their political and economical ties, I'm almost sure. Maybe the US could push toward it somehow if she would want it and maybe the election can force them to, but that would mean an even bigger war, it would step over local scale.

Bernd 02/28/2020 (Fri) 14:57:02 [Preview] No.34704 del
I've read some on that in the Internet, never had the idea of reading on a book. Also researched the first years of the war, which are hard to get information on, and analytical essays on how the regime maintains its power. They mostly have an anti-regime bias.
For example: https://tcf.org/content/report/assads-broken-base-case-idlib/?agreed=1
Assad relies on a network of local protégés on every city, and in areas lost to the rebels this network has been uprooted, making it harder to reestablish authority as they are reconquered.
Assad still has more brute force than his militias but has to balance his need for their military power with their side-effects such as popularity loss; occasionally this means disbanding and suppresing militias.
The wealth of a loyalist oligarch had to be cannibalized to pay debts to Russia.
Lengthy multi-part writing on reconstruction, oligarchs, militias, welfare, polarization and so on.

>I wonder why the book starts at 1975/76. Hafez al-Assad came to power five years earlier, and the ruling Ba'ath Party seized control in '63. Was their occupation of Lebanon so important? Maybe the reason for the starting date is in the Preface or something.
Lebanon is a very complicated subject, even more than Syria. Alliances changed all the time, at one point Hafez and Israel were in the same camp. I haven't delved into it, it's a headache to try to understand.
>Since 2002 Syria is massaged by the US, accusing her with supporting terrorists
For a time during the Iraq War Bashar was complacent to Iraqi insurgents across the border.
>while civilian unrest was going on
You might look into the roots of unrest in the hinterland. Rural areas in particular were in a poor condition in 2011. There was decades-old environmental degradation in the steppe, which was opened to massive herds instead of just what the Bedouins had. Bashar conducted needed reforms, cutting subsidies and moving to cash crops, but in the short term this made farmers suffer. And since 2006 there was drought. Climate has effects on the war itself, sandstorms are good for ISIS and the like as they eliminate other side's air cover and this was particularly damaging for besieged airbases. The war itself helps cause sandstorms as it leads to less land being cultivated and cared for.

I guess Erdogan is engaging in brinkmanship and will keep adding fuel to the fire until he can negotiate a ceasefire with Russia and the West. His decision to open the Greek border to let refugees enter Europe is another way to put pressure.

Bernd 02/28/2020 (Fri) 18:01:06 [Preview] No.34707 del
Quite a lot of book about Syria on libgen as fresh as the one I mentioned, and now I see one published this year. They explore many aspects of the situation. The Arab Spring, the society falling apart, minorities, refugees, the proxy nature of the war, factions, international relations, the use of media, etc, etc.
Thanks for the links, maybe I can find the time to skim them through.
Yeah, as I browsed the books, I checked couple of publishers and it is very likely most has anti-regime bias. Especially from the early stages of the war when Assad position was fickle.

From the little I read so far it seems economically Syria had the chance, but somehow they always fall back. Besides they struggle with constant corruption. But will see in a little bit more detail.

Bernd 02/28/2020 (Fri) 20:31:37 [Preview] No.34708 del
So. The book says in the '70s an annual journal was launched under the name of Middle East Review:
This volume re-publishes the Middle East Review’s annual appraisals of Syria, its politics and economy. In terms of news coverage and analysis for much of the period covered here, Syria was an exceptional case. Coverage of the country in international media was at best negligible, often non-existent. The al-Assad regimes did not welcome journalistic probing. Not many journalists were given visas to visit Damascus, even less to make their way to those cities well-known to be hostile to the al-Assad administrations.

Bernd 02/29/2020 (Sat) 15:13:01 [Preview] No.34724 del
Assad won get over it.

Bernd 02/29/2020 (Sat) 17:06:00 [Preview] No.34726 del
Lies! ISIS still can win.

Bernd 03/01/2020 (Sun) 09:22:02 [Preview] No.34730 del
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Lots of news rebels gaining the upper hand now.

Bernd 03/01/2020 (Sun) 15:54:59 [Preview] No.34733 del
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Reconciled rebels are rising up in the south. Syria shot down a Turkish drone and Turkey downed two Syrian jets and several AA systems in response.

Bernd 03/01/2020 (Sun) 18:44:47 [Preview] No.34735 del
The question is how much the govt managed to pacify the south. It also made me think how much of that southern movements were organized from the outside. Did they get foreign help, or have they managed to pull this out themselves? How much weapon caches left undiscovered. How reliable and committed are those insurgents there. Was a low key guerrilla warfare went on which didn't reach the media?
But every bit helps. I'm really not looking forward to the continuation of the war, but these surprises makes the thing educational.

Bernd 03/02/2020 (Mon) 00:46:58 [Preview] No.34743 del
They have already shot down 2 more(and possibly a third but the owner of that one is not known yet). We will have to wait and see what Russia does.

Well Jordan was never a friend of Syria so they may have provided aid or allowed aid to pass through Jordan. It's quite a coincidence that the uprising took place on the same day that Turkey's operation Spring Shield has started though.

Bernd 03/02/2020 (Mon) 17:05:48 [Preview] No.34751 del
Saraqib changed hands again.

Bernd 03/03/2020 (Tue) 01:48:08 [Preview] No.34775 del
Ehh, I was wrong about the 2 further planes, there are so many reports going around with rebels claiming to have shot down planes but it turns out they were Turkish drones shot down by Syrians.

Bernd 03/03/2020 (Tue) 01:59:40 [Preview] No.34776 del
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Tables are turning again, Erdogan has made sure the final chapters of the war are not a placid mopping up but an electrifying experience full of plot twists. Rebels were already breaching the gates of Kafranbel when an army counterattack contained their breach from the west. And despite news of massive losses from bombed convoys, Tiger forces massed in the M5 again and retook Saraqib. It took some time, rebels released videos from inside the city whilst pro-regime sources were already declaring it taken and the city was probably divided for a while but already taken by now. A Turkish drone was seen in the background as Syrian TV broadcasted from Saraqib. Some sources give the whole M5 as cleared while the live map still shows it cut to the north. Suheil himself was photographed in the city and Russian MP arrived, making it now off-limits to Erdogan.

So trying to make sense of this:
Erdogan has no long-term thinking for Syria, he's just bumbling from one crisis to another and improvising as he goes. When the army's offensive curbstomped the rebels, he panicked and tried to salvage the situation with his observation posts and materiel deliveries to the rebels. It was laughably ineffective and caused an escalation, but now he does seem to be following a logic. When the posts inevitably caused casualties, he chose to keep escalating. Soon he was taking dozens of casualties and bombing Syria en masse with drones and artillery. This had the practical effect of threatening the Syrian army's helicopter and bomber support and dramatically raising its attrition, with large losses of men and vehicles including tanks. In this new environment rebels managed to counterattack and as the army shuffled men across fronts several convoys were hit. Erdogan's endgame right now is to raise the temperature so much Idlib becomes an international crisis, bringing great powers to negotiate a truce. This will give at least a few more months of life for rebels in Idlib. He'll meet Putin in Moscow soon. Another arm of his strategy is his opening of the border with Europe for Syrian refugees, which puts pressure on Merkel and Macron to take a stand and hopefully back a ceasefire.
With the prospect of a ceasefire, both sides try to assert themselves on the ground as fast as possible. Assad went for Saraqib as the most valuable target and its takeover demonstrates that, in face of Turkish bombing he has the manpower and the willingness to sacrifice it, and most importantly, that despite this higher attrition the rebels are still an inferior fighting force and will fold wherever Tiger Forces and other elite troops are concentrated and Russian airstrikes fall. Putin is still giving his support, but notably hasn't raised it to compensate Erdogan's, refusing an expansion of his mission in Syria. It seems he only intervened to get a cheap victory, and is reluctant to take a bigger commitment. Erdogan may have found his weak spot. Furthermore, Turkey matters to Russia a lot more than Assad's takeover of Idlib. Russia doesn't even need Idlib, it already has Assad solidly in power and bases in the coast. A weaker Assad is in fact a more loyal ally.

>The question is how much the govt managed to pacify the south.
The population was against him in the first place and largely remains so. Reconciliation with rebels requires trust, which is in short supply in the dire wartime conditions; a few of the reconciled still found themselves arrested and tortured. In a former warzone a lot of civilians already had firearms and in some cases reconciled rebels kept theirs. The regime's client networks will take a long time to restore. However, rebellious thoughts were kept at bay by a general feeling that the regime had won and was strong. Recent battlefield defeats did away with this feeling so the angriest rebels thought they had a shot.

Bernd 03/03/2020 (Tue) 02:26:06 [Preview] No.34777 del
neocons were right
it's better to have USA world police than this chaotic shit every day

Bernd 03/03/2020 (Tue) 02:34:14 [Preview] No.34778 del
That didn't really work in Libya though did it.

Bernd 03/03/2020 (Tue) 02:39:25 [Preview] No.34780 del
Lybia was a French operation and it was after the Georgian war where Americans gave up their monopoly of regime change.

Bernd 03/03/2020 (Tue) 02:59:00 [Preview] No.34781 del
Another important factor: it seems Turkey diminished its bombing operations now.

Bernd 03/03/2020 (Tue) 09:37:11 [Preview] No.34788 del
The government has control over the M5 again and is consolidating it's position along it. Another plane shot down in the south of Idlib as well as some minor Syrian gains in that area.

Yes, seems to be so. Another convoy was sent into Syria so they are still increasing their presence but it looks like Operation Spring Shield may fall through.

Bernd 03/03/2020 (Tue) 09:51:52 [Preview] No.34790 del
>Erdogan has no long-term thinking for Syria, he's just bumbling from one crisis to another and improvising as he goes.

Yes, it looks like it's going to backfire on him too. If the situation remains as it is and the Syrians regain the momentum then it is worse for him than had he never launched Spring Shield. At least before that he could bargain with Russia over the threat of a military intervention, now he has shown his hand and shown it to be a poor one.

Bernd 03/04/2020 (Wed) 06:34:38 [Preview] No.34810 del
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Kek. On the livemap they follow flightradar to pinpoint UAVs, and probably other military aviation can be followed. Like the one I witnessed I already posted about.

Forgot to read this >>34776

Bernd 03/04/2020 (Wed) 12:25:55 [Preview] No.34814 del

Bernd 03/04/2020 (Wed) 22:03:34 [Preview] No.34826 del
Reports of Turkish bombing in Saraqib and Russian MP leaving, but hours later pro-regime sources showed the Russians were still there. Rebels attacked but were pushed back, this time Tiger Forces are defending. Denied reports of Suheil being injured. Loyalists try to push towards Afes just north of Saraqib, while rebels attacked far up north near YPG territory. A Syrian Su-22 evaded a Turkish missile.

>now he has shown his hand and shown it to be a poor one.
It's not powerless, the higher attrition rate he achieved is considerable and maybe Assad is better off with a ceasefire in control of the M5. Further, he can escalate further, maybe by trying to systematically shoot down any Syrian aircraft in the area, and has the nuclear option of a direct ground assault by Turkish troops. But overall he has maneuvered himself into a corner and now both his internal and external situations are awful. If he didn't rig the system enough he might be unseated from power.

Won't help much.

Bernd 03/05/2020 (Thu) 06:46:47 [Preview] No.34830 del
While reading the short news on the livemap I got the feeling the armed activity in the south was mostly individual peeps taking potshots on whatever. Just a few were more organized.

Bernd 03/05/2020 (Thu) 14:02:06 [Preview] No.34833 del
The two are having serious discussions in Moscow right now.

Bernd 03/05/2020 (Thu) 16:37:32 [Preview] No.34835 del
Forging an everlasting peace these two great statesmen will do. Especially the little one.

Bernd 03/05/2020 (Thu) 20:17:22 [Preview] No.34841 del
Here's the result.
Well it's nice and all, joint patrolling in a corridor along the M4... But what's gonna happen with the rest of Idlib area? The de-escalation area is probably defined in those 2017-2018 memorandums, but still.
>combat terrorism
>avoid targeting civilians
Nice rubber agreement. Al-Qaeda types mix in the civilian crowd. One side can always claim "those were terrorists", the other can reply with "those were civilians".
>There can be no military solution to the Syrian conflict
So Assad isn't allowed to finish the job. Even Russia says so. They are basically solidifying a divided Syria with hostile forces leading each. They are guaranteeing that a new conflict can be ignited any time. That corner of the Middle East remains destabilized.
What does this mean anyway? Assad is Syrian? Who is the Syrian?

What a turd.
I think peace can only be reached if one side is defeated properly. Now that Assad has the upper hand it's him who should unify and rebuild the country, he should be bind by UN to give concessions whatever were the demands, and allow the refugees back to resettle.
I also believe the countries of the European Union fucked up big time. They should have committed themselves removing Assad at all cost as fast as possible. Now Erdogan has the refugee tap and he can open it any time he wants it. Basically the EU countries gave away control over their own fate. I believe an EU Army is needed and it have to be made ready to be deployed at all the places where the situation can influence directly Europe (liek Africa and the Middle East). The best would be leaving NATO and committing solely to own force. This would mean ofc raising military spending and this would cut into the standard of living, western peeps would have a hard time to accept that. Especially now the liberals and "greens". Also without Britain...

Bernd 03/05/2020 (Thu) 20:58:40 [Preview] No.34843 del
>joint patrolling in a corridor along the M4...
Unless the Syrian army moves in this won't go anywhere, with jihadists still in the area it'll be impossible in practice to open the highway for civilian traffic. The previous Sochi demilitarization stipulated that it would be open and nothing of the sort happened.
>But what's gonna happen with the rest of Idlib area?
Frontlines freeze where they are. Turkey's whole intervention was about getting loyalists to retreat back to Sochi lines and now Erdogan admits defeat in this goal.
>Nice rubber agreement. Al-Qaeda types mix in the civilian crowd. One side can always claim "those were terrorists", the other can reply with "those were civilians".
Last agreement also included Turkey dissolving HTS, instead at this point they gave vehicles and bombing support. So it's meaningless.
>They are basically solidifying a divided Syria with hostile forces leading each. They are guaranteeing that a new conflict can be ignited any time.
Also what Astana and Sochi did, and in both cases fighting broke out again in a matter of months. This is also the case now. Assad has no long-term intention to maintain the truce and the rebels keep provoking, a quick breakdown is inevitable. A potential flashpoint is Afes, from where the rebels can shell the M5 and try to close it.
So not only Erdogan had to accept all of Assad's gains, but all he got back with is some breathing room, a few moments of respite. He can't move things in the direction he wants so he just stalls and delays. What is his long-term plan? Just preserving the status quo, maintaining Idlib as it is, an Afghanistan with tens of thousands of heavily armed jihadists roaming around. He fears the alternative -letting it be restored to the Syrian government- means he'll get more refugees and lose prestige and a bargaining chip, so he's willing to accept this. It's also what Western hawks want. Yet it's a foolish strategy. Rebel Idlib is a perpetual hotbed of instability and a potential terror threat. Sure, at the moment it can be argued that it distracts Sunni fundamentalists by channeling their enthusiasm, but those people are unpredictable. Who knows if Syrian jihadists won't launch terrorist attacks on Turkey itself in the future? And letting them hold that land is a point of prestige for fundamentalists across the world as well as a breeding ground for locals potentially joining the cause of jihad. Syria's armed opposition is a spent force, a dead end, it cannot effect any change, all Erdogan can try to do is extend its lifespan.

Bernd 03/05/2020 (Thu) 20:59:01 [Preview] No.34844 del
This interesting article situates Iran/Hezbollah within the current crisis and sets it to the background of last year's Peace Spring crisis. Turkey had offered the M4 and M5 in exchange for Kobane but Russia felt it had a strong hand, valued its ties with the SDF and concluded it did not need a deal, preparing instead for a military takeover of the highways. Now that Turkey found itself without either Kobane or the highways it reacted with force so it wouldn't be at a complete loss. During this escalation, besides the battles in Saraqib in the south there was a rebel attempt to advance towards Aleppo through al-Eis, and in the process Turkish bombing killed some Hezbollah fighters, as the area was in Iran's sphere of influence. Iran and Hezbollah threatened to retaliate, making Turkey back down from bombing them. Hezbollah then took an important part in the final battle to retake Saraqib. This last counterattack, however, happened only after an initial period in which the Russian air force stayed put for 48 hours and loyalists were heavily damaged by Turkish bombing with little AA capabilities in place. This was the period when the rebels seemed to regain the upper hand. Then Russian jets returned to the field, Syrian AA assets arrived, Turkish drones began to fall and the tide reversed once again.
But I'm not sure about the Russian Air Force stepping down part, this is the first time I read about it.

RT has some casualty figures.
>Assad’s army has suffered significant losses during the conflict – hundreds of troops have been killed or wounded. Assad’s allies have also been affected, including Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, who lost 43 soldiers in an attack on an observation post. There have been losses in Hezbollah’s units as well, even though they haven’t engaged in any frontline combat.
>For example, in a matter of days, 191 soldiers from the Syrian armed forces were killed, and another 292 wounded. The army also lost tanks, IFVs and artillery guns and mortars, though experts say most of the damaged hardware can be repaired and used again.
So hundreds, not thousands of casualties as Turkey claimed. Still a lot. But no numbers on tank losses, which might well reach a few dozen, and other armor.

And Erdogan's approval rating is weak. The Turkish public is unenthusiastic about this operation. Right now he can say he "won" because he stopped further advances and refugee generation but this truce will break down in mont

Bernd 03/06/2020 (Fri) 07:34:47 [Preview] No.34850 del
>Last agreement also included Turkey dissolving HTS

As I recall, Turkey actually did try to convince HTS to GTFO but they refused. That being said, I don't know what the hell is going on in the region anymore, it's such a clusterfuck of competing news.

Bernd 03/06/2020 (Fri) 07:41:28 [Preview] No.34851 del
>He fears the alternative -letting it be restored to the Syrian government- means he'll get more refugees

How? If Assad wins, the refugees no longer have an excuse to stay in Turkey. They can all be thrown out into Syria within weeks to Assad's mercy. Sure, you might argue that it is not humane and that they will suffer under Assad but at this point, I'm pretty sure that the Turks don't give a shit, they want all the Syrians and other migrants gone. Remove the immigrants, reinforce the border and watch Assad like a hawk. If the PKK starts initiating assaults again with Assad's help, run a massive propaganda campaign against him, get NATO onboard and rape his ass with a full-on offensive. Russia won't dare do shit with the NATO forces ravaging the area except stand and watch helplessly as their hard-earned investments go down the toilet. Withdrawing from Syria is basically the only smart option left now.

Bernd 03/06/2020 (Fri) 19:23:51 [Preview] No.34858 del
>>But what's gonna happen with the rest of Idlib area?
>Frontlines freeze where they are.
With the halting of all military actions yes, it should mean that. I was trying to highlight that this little "additional protocol" says nothing about the rest of the land. And I added I dunno what is exactly in the previous agreements.
I see you have some knowledge on that however, your post explains a lot.
I saw snippets in the mininews on the livemap about Erdo sending reinforcement to the observation points. I think he will use this intermission to also resupply the rebels, and prop them up for another round, so the agony of Syria can continue.

Many might leave if Assad stays. But I would think they already gone, so that's that.

Bernd 03/06/2020 (Fri) 21:25:19 [Preview] No.34876 del
Further proofs that EU is a joke.
>"If we say today 'we want a no-fly zone,'" Borrell said, “the problem is not what we want, the problem is what we can do.”

Bernd 03/07/2020 (Sat) 03:15:04 [Preview] No.34878 del
Yes, I mean it did have an effect but it also showed that in order for Turkey to have the impact they want they will have to escalate and that may not even be possible for numerous internal and external reasons. Knowing this Syria can be emboldened, they can keep pushing the rebels and could potentially start pushing into the northern held area as well(but I'm not sure they will until Idlib is cleared).

Many of them aren't even Syrians to begin with, many off the people in Idlib aren't even Syrian. The issue is that these foreign fighters often tend to bring their family with them.

Bernd 03/07/2020 (Sat) 08:49:22 [Preview] No.34886 del
>I think he will use this intermission to also resupply the rebels, and prop them up for another round, so the agony of Syria can continue.

I don't think Erdogan is that stupid, he knows if there's another firefight and more Turkish soldiers die, there will be riots in Turkey and his ass is grass. As proven over and over, you can't keep giving resources and air/artillery support to a bunch of incompetent jihadi goatfuckers and expect them to magically turn into the Wehrmacht.

Bernd 03/07/2020 (Sat) 09:44:13 [Preview] No.34890 del
>there will be riots in Turkey
Can this be stated categorically? Maybe his approval is falling but this wouldn't necessarily lead to riots.
He does not need a proper army, he just buys more time. The use of the vast majority of war material can be taught in a fairly short time and trained to adequate level.
>As proven over and over
This is interesting. Can you give examples?

Bernd 03/07/2020 (Sat) 15:41:36 [Preview] No.34895 del
Erdogan just gave the order to stop migrant boats from going across the Aegean because the Greeks keep trying to sink them. This is really turning into a huge disaster for him, first he gets humiliated by Putin, now he’s essentially conceded defeat on Greece blocking migrants by any means they want with the full blessing of the EU. Mark my words, he’ll be gone from office by next year.

Bernd 03/07/2020 (Sat) 17:04:19 [Preview] No.34896 del
On the Turkish Greek border the police of the two nations shoot at each other with teargas and shit, while Syrians stuck between them.

Bernd 03/07/2020 (Sat) 19:36:19 [Preview] No.34900 del
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Now we're gonna get boring maps in Syria.
In Libya however there's some activity.

Bernd 03/08/2020 (Sun) 03:34:02 [Preview] No.34918 del
Regime has apparently resumed their offensives into Idlib and there's a heated back-and-forth going on between the rebels and the regime. As predicted, everyone just wiped their ass with the ceasefire agreement.

Bernd 03/08/2020 (Sun) 03:45:19 [Preview] No.34919 del
Some minor gains made by the Syrians. They have been probing the area south of the M4, no air support involved, just artillery. They also sent some units back to Deir Ez-Zur from Idlib. The probing has been ongoing sense the start of the ceasefire but never gained ground before now.

It's hard to say, as they may just be fighting HTS who never were officially a part of it anyway. It's also been relatively minor so far.

Bernd 03/08/2020 (Sun) 07:09:20 [Preview] No.34921 del
I think they want to move up to the planned corridor along the M4.
>Deir Ez-Zur
There're always some Daesh activity there. I remember a memo to group troops there for bughunt, but I seem to recall as it was an American memo.

Bernd 03/08/2020 (Sun) 11:11:50 [Preview] No.34926 del
Where do taste buds come from? Not from an intelligent designer visualizing their consequences, but from a frozen history of ancestry: Adam liked sugar and ate an apple and reproduced, Barbara liked sugar and ate an apple and reproduced, Charlie liked sugar and ate an apple and reproduced, and 2763 generations later, the allele became fixed in the population. For convenience of thought, we sometimes compress this giant history and say: "Evolution did it." But it's not a quick, local event like a human designer visualizing a screwdriver. This is the objective cause of a taste bud.

What is the objective shape of a taste bud? Technically, it's a molecular sensor connected to reinforcement circuitry. This adds another level of indirection, because the taste bud isn't directly acquiring food. It's influencing the organism's mind, making the organism want to eat foods that are similar to the food just eaten.

What is the objective consequence of a taste bud? In a modern First World human, it plays out in multiple chains of causality: from the desire to eat more chocolate, to the plan to eat more chocolate, to eating chocolate, to getting fat, to getting fewer dates, to reproducing less successfully. This consequence is directly opposite the key regularity in the long chain of ancestral successes which caused the taste bud's shape. But, since overeating has only recently become a problem, no significant evolution (compressed regularity of ancestry) has further influenced the taste bud's shape.

What is the meaning of eating chocolate? That's between you and your moral philosophy. Personally, I think chocolate tastes good, but I wish it were less harmful; acceptable solutions would include redesigning the chocolate or redesigning my biochemistry.

Smushing several of the concepts together, you could sort-of-say, "Modern humans do today what would have propagated our genes in a hunter-gatherer society, whether or not it helps our genes in a modern society." But this still isn't quite right, because we're not actually asking ourselves which behaviors would maximize our ancestors' inclusive fitness. And many of our activities today have no ancestral analogue. In the hunter-gatherer society there wasn't any such thing as chocolate.

So it's better to view our taste buds as an adaptation fitted to ancestral conditions that included near-starvation and apples and roast rabbit, which modern humans execute in a new context that includes cheap chocolate and constant bombardment by advertisements.

Therefore it is said: Individual organisms are best thought of as adaptation-executers, not fitness-maximizers.

Bernd 03/08/2020 (Sun) 13:53:09 [Preview] No.34928 del
They already withdrew form the villages they took. I don't think there was much meaning behind the attack.

Bernd 03/08/2020 (Sun) 15:39:06 [Preview] No.34929 del
>They can all be thrown out into Syria within weeks to Assad's mercy.
Legally Erdogan can't do that. If he ignores international law, he still has a massive public order and logistical challenge of forcibly moving millions of refugees. The last time a Turkish government tried a resettlement on this scale did not go well. Even if he has the means to ship them, Assad may block the border on his side. Refugees are mostly those who didn't support the regime in the first place and the new demographic balance is advantageous.

>I think he will use this intermission to also resupply the rebels, and prop them up for another round, so the agony of Syria can continue.
He's already doing that. They're full of TOWs, armored vehicles and probably even MANPADs and know how to use them. Not sure how much additional training can be given, he already had several years to organize his Syrian National Army.

Some sources deny the push took place at all.

Bernd 03/09/2020 (Mon) 06:35:46 [Preview] No.34942 del
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They bringin in the respiratory machine they put this rebel cause onto.

Bernd 03/12/2020 (Thu) 20:57:46 [Preview] No.35098 del
There are rumors Erdogan's next target is SDF territory. Daraa is still restless.
Coronavirus may have already reached the northeast.

Good article on the present state of the Syrian economy by an anti-regime source. Even though the war is being won living conditions continue to wither away and basics such as food and heating are hard to get. With Lebanon's crisis it gets worse. However the military is unaffected, those tied to the regime stay loyal and dissatisfaction is expressed towards the economic situation rather than to the political system.

Bernd 03/16/2020 (Mon) 06:40:29 [Preview] No.35173 del
Turkish-Russian joint patrol of the M4 is getting prevented by the resistance of the locals.
Reminds me how Turkbernd is doing.

Bernd 03/16/2020 (Mon) 13:58:21 [Preview] No.35180 del
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Terrible news, there has been a murder.

Bernd 03/16/2020 (Mon) 15:02:00 [Preview] No.35182 del
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Who done it? The cook? The gardener? The chauffeur? Or one his heirs?

Bernd 03/16/2020 (Mon) 21:50:25 [Preview] No.35203 del
They're trying everything they can, these patrols won't go anywhere. Perhaps this will give Erdogan an excuse to not intervene if Assad attacks everything south of the M4, it's already scarcely populated anyways.
Bilal Abdul Kareem interviewed some of the demonstrators. Look at the man on his left.

Bernd 03/17/2020 (Tue) 20:54:43 [Preview] No.35230 del
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Present state of the M4.

Bernd 03/17/2020 (Tue) 21:33:17 [Preview] No.35235 del
Just a couple of potholes. Nothing that a few shovel of asphalt can't fix.

Bernd 03/18/2020 (Wed) 14:20:59 [Preview] No.35263 del
They will never be fixed until the war is over.

Bernd 03/19/2020 (Thu) 01:49:01 [Preview] No.35277 del
أنت زنجي في بروكسي؟

Bernd 03/19/2020 (Thu) 01:51:56 [Preview] No.35278 del
I don't think it would stop the Russian portion of the patrol, it's not really anything the Russians would not be used to back home.

Bernd 03/19/2020 (Thu) 07:31:41 [Preview] No.35280 del
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Might be the .org domain misplace him.


Bernd 03/19/2020 (Thu) 12:28:06 [Preview] No.35284 del
Rebels bombed a TAF convoy on the M4 in Muhambal, with several Turkish casualties.

Bernd 03/19/2020 (Thu) 14:12:49 [Preview] No.35285 del

Bernd 03/19/2020 (Thu) 14:29:35 [Preview] No.35286 del
Tiny mishap.

Bernd 03/19/2020 (Thu) 16:54:42 [Preview] No.35288 del
They're angry at the patrols.

Bernd 03/19/2020 (Thu) 17:19:09 [Preview] No.35290 del
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Sounds counterproductive. Dogs biting the hand of the master usually ends worse for the dog. Now Erdogan can look away but what will happen if it repeats?

Bernd 03/19/2020 (Thu) 17:47:31 [Preview] No.35295 del
He could use this as a pretext for disarming or subjugating rebels disloyal to him, consolidating his control of Idlib. But he hasn't done so despite having the opportunity for years so he might let it pass.

Bernd 03/21/2020 (Sat) 01:21:13 [Preview] No.35332 del
>turks are now getting attacked by the very people whose asses they keep saving

I feel legitimately sorry for the Turkish soldiers in Syria, it must suck being stuck in a desert hellhole and having to take shots from everyone in the region. I'm surprised some Turkish commander didn't just decide to go rogue and firebomb everything in sight.

Bernd 03/21/2020 (Sat) 11:17:21 [Preview] No.35346 del
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Some activity, very blue.
Live map offers Epidemics map too.

>Turkish commander
He must be very trusted person.

Bernd 04/06/2020 (Mon) 20:29:23 [Preview] No.35691 del
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>Al-Hasakah Province – Syrian Observatory for Human Rights: reliable sources have informed SOHR that armed fight erupted between two groups of the Turkish-backed faction “Sultan Murad” in Ras Al-Ain city (Sere Kaniye), north of Al-Hasakah, after a dispute between the two groups over stealing a “washing machine”. The clashes left four militiamen injured. According to SOHR sources, two of the injured fighters were taken to Turkey after sustaining serious injuries.
Business as usual in TFSA territory.

Bernd 04/07/2020 (Tue) 05:07:46 [Preview] No.35696 del
>“washing machine”
Women are serious business.

Bernd 04/20/2020 (Mon) 02:36:57 [Preview] No.36067 del
A number of gunmen hailing from al-Tanf surrendered to the regime with their vehicles and weapons. There are several reports on what happened:

-MaT (Maghaweir al-Thowra)/Revolutionary Commando Army, the tiny rebel group which shares the zone with American troops, claims the convoy cannot be considered one of their own as it was led by a local drug dealer who gave up after MaT prevented him from doing his trade, leaving with his family including some MaT members. Previously they have claimed they interdict the drug trade in the highway and Hezbollah is involved, but do not link the dealer with Hezbollah.
-A former MaT spokesman as "Ghanam al-Khudair" aka "Abu Hamzah Asha'ir" and claims he is a MaT member and drug dealer with Hezbollah, regime and MaT ties who was protected and given a high rank by the MaT leadership but had to leave with his retinue after local hostility made his position unsafe.
-Official Syrian media says Abu Hamza was a disillusioned MaT member who defected after seeing that within al-Tanf "militants" were being trained to sabotage infrastructure in the desert and equipment was indirectly reaching ISIS. No mention of drugs at all.

Bernd 04/20/2020 (Mon) 03:21:36 [Preview] No.36068 del
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Some background.

Bernd 04/20/2020 (Mon) 05:17:54 [Preview] No.36069 del
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Reading my mind with bumping this thread.

Russians tested the new T-14 Armata main battle tank in Syria, among "wartime" conditions.
Gonna find English source, but for now:
This says they tested 600 weapons during their whole participation. Muntarov said Armata is just brilliant, everyone wants to buy it all right I'm exaggerating here a little, he said it was good and there's some foreign interest in it - according to the article, but Russia won't order much, they want to modernize the existent armoured vehicle park.

sage Bernd 04/20/2020 (Mon) 05:18:16 [Preview] No.36070 del

Bernd 04/30/2020 (Thu) 17:00:38 [Preview] No.36403 del
Germany designated the entirety of Hezbollah including its political wings as a terrorist organization, which should damage funding from the diaspora.
And a few days ago was the fifth anniversary of a massacre of hundreds of Alawites in the aftermath of rebel victories in Idlib and Jisr al-Shughur.

Bernd 06/03/2020 (Wed) 01:48:56 [Preview] No.37138 del
A few months ago the GNA took back a few positions, now I look and they have encircled a part of the LNA and are moving to take the airport. Turkish involvement keeps getting heavier with more Syrian rebels arriving as well as Turkish supplied Drones, M60s and APCs and Turkey is increasing it's official military presence as well. I guess the ceasefire in Syria is freeing up Turkish resources so they are able to give them such support but they were increasing there presence in Syria as well. They are quite busy indeed.

Bernd 06/03/2020 (Wed) 05:33:03 [Preview] No.37139 del
I kinda remember reading somewhere Russia deploying troops in Libya too. Will look that up in the eve.

Bernd 06/05/2020 (Fri) 14:35:58 [Preview] No.37255 del
So they took the airport, LNA didn't resist too strongly. The war seems to be fairly small scale, I guess because of how small Libya is population wise(it has a population of 6.6million). I think because of this an outside power can influence the tide of the war with minimal intervention if not opposed by the machinations of another outside power.

I heard there were Russian mercenaries there and a Russian war plane spotted in the area.

Bernd 06/05/2020 (Fri) 15:23:33 [Preview] No.37261 del
Yes, large scale conflict is prevented by the lack of large scale. Also Libya's armed forces were organized during the decades of Gaddafi to be weak and incompetent. Since then the country wasn't in the position to build up any army.

Bernd 06/05/2020 (Fri) 19:31:16 [Preview] No.37268 del
Just grabbed this. Probably relevant.

Bernd 06/06/2020 (Sat) 09:37:39 [Preview] No.37280 del
Here's some stats of the Libyan military. Also a screenshot from the book.
For 2020, Libya is ranked 80 of 138
Total and active military personnel: ~30 000
- fighter 17
- dedicated attack 2
- attack helicopters 7
250 tanks
450 armored vehicles
50 self-propelled artillery
100 towed artilery
55 rocket projectors
1 frigate, 4 other boats
I have to assume this is the govt. forces (GNA), and does not include rebels (LNA).

Bernd 06/07/2020 (Sun) 03:35:43 [Preview] No.37313 del
Will Libya ever go back to normal?

Bernd 06/07/2020 (Sun) 06:59:06 [Preview] No.37367 del
Will Syria?

Bernd 06/07/2020 (Sun) 15:55:07 [Preview] No.37416 del
Lebanon stabilized -though not at a high level even for Middle Eastern standards- but never recovered its former prestige.

Bernd 06/07/2020 (Sun) 22:36:03 [Preview] No.37432 del

Will Middle East?

Bernd 06/08/2020 (Mon) 02:15:25 [Preview] No.37444 del
Will USA?

Bernd 06/08/2020 (Mon) 04:58:12 [Preview] No.37476 del
Will Venezuela?

Bernd 06/08/2020 (Mon) 05:28:35 [Preview] No.37482 del
Will Bogdan's butt?

I think the continuation depends on the players in global economy. Noone wants more competition, local businesses, but resources and markets. Colonialism 2.0 in some modified form.

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