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Syria thread - Erdoğan edition Bernd 10/24/2019 (Thu) 01:43:41 [Preview] No. 30865
Erdogan has met Putin and ironed out the partition of northeastern Syria. He gets to keep everything he conquered and the rest stays with Assad. YPG retreats from a 30km strip along the border, leaving the bulk of Kurdish-populated areas. Russo-Turkish patrols guard the safe zone. The deal shows two things:
By inviting Assad the SDF have completely relinquished their sovereignty. This was why they were so relutanct to receive aid during Olive Branch. As long as Erdogan maintains good relations with Assad and Putin, YPG will no longer bother him. If, however, relations sour then he can even expect a repeat of the 90s, when Hafez sheltered Ocalan and allowed PKK to use Syria as its base of operations.
The deal was discussed with Putin, not Assad. It's also clear who calls the shots.

For locals conquered by Peace Spring, the problem is not Turkey itself but its Syrian rebel puppets, who are thugs and mistreat the population, as has already been the case in Afrin. For the war as a whole, peace is now closer. Once Idlib is sorted out, a simple deal with Turkey can grant Assad the whole country except for al-Tanf.


Bernd 10/24/2019 (Thu) 03:02:36 [Preview] No.30868 del
The attack of Turkey to the kurds was pretty sudden. The last I remember before it was that Assad was making gains from dealing with ISIS and FSA, kurds weren't even an issue but just this month they started cracking down on them.


Bernd 10/24/2019 (Thu) 21:07:53 [Preview] No.30888 del
>>30865
>>30865
Erdoğan is a genius allien from area 51.


Bernd 10/24/2019 (Thu) 22:37:32 [Preview] No.30890 del
https://youtube.com/watch?v=_0JEP15Zifk [Embed]

click if you're sick of "Turkey is dropping tsar bomb on kurds UN-NATO help!!1!11!!" type of news.


Bernd 10/24/2019 (Thu) 22:42:04 [Preview] No.30891 del
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>>30890
>not linking to proofs
very bad erdogan


Bernd 10/24/2019 (Thu) 23:22:56 [Preview] No.30894 del
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>>30891
>>30891
>asking for proofs
Turkophobe


Bernd 10/25/2019 (Fri) 00:53:56 [Preview] No.30897 del
>>30868
>The attack of Turkey to the kurds was pretty sudden
Turkey invading is no surprise, Erdogan has made clear his intention for a long time. What was sudden was American withdrawal, and even then that wasn't totally unpredictable as Trump promised to get out of Syria.
>The last I remember before it was that Assad was making gains from dealing with ISIS
That was all the way back in late 2017, when he and the SDF advanced up to the Euphrates reducing ISIS to a small strip at the left bank and some pockets in the desert. The residual Caliphate was defeated this year and only the desert presence remains.
>FSA
The Free Syrian Army itself has effectively ceased to exist years ago, though Turkish-controlled rebels are sometimes called "TFSA". The rebels overall suffered major defeats with all their pockets including Damascus being cleared by 2018, leaving only "Greater Idlib" which has lost a lot of territory with a campaign taking place there just a few months ago.


Bernd 10/25/2019 (Fri) 05:14:46 [Preview] No.30900 del
Wanted to post these yesterday. Maybe outdated now.


Bernd 10/25/2019 (Fri) 13:29:18 [Preview] No.30906 del
>>30900
America will keep a small contingent at the Euphrates to control the oil fields. Silly, as their actual output is small. All this achieves is prolonging the war.


Bernd 10/25/2019 (Fri) 16:32:21 [Preview] No.30919 del
>>30906
Now the SAA can go back to slice up the Idlib rebels.
After that there's still the Turkey backed rebels. But I suppose negotiations will start. About something.


Bernd 10/25/2019 (Fri) 16:46:32 [Preview] No.30924 del
I don't think I'll ever be able to comprehend the suffering of the kurds.


Bernd 10/26/2019 (Sat) 08:59:25 [Preview] No.30945 del
>>30906
Pretty sure Syria is gonna get partitioned. The Turkish military won't go anywhere, the Russians pretty much have Assad by the balls, he's their puppet now and the US is still staying there. Basically, pre-2011 Syria is not coming back.

>>30919
Turkey will drop those rebels like a hot potato. Sure, they won't attack them directly but they won't lift a finger to stop the Syrian and Russian forces from bombing them to shit.


Bernd 10/26/2019 (Sat) 09:57:23 [Preview] No.30947 del
>>30945
It's not the first time syrians wanted to rebel, during the papa assad's time, islamists wanted our support for a coup, but we refused. Only reason we jumped this mess because erdoğan is an islamist and he was doing will of USA.

Only now he kinda turned to Russia, he is still a bad politican. He is the reason why my country couldnt handle it unlike previous leaders.


Bernd 10/26/2019 (Sat) 15:39:29 [Preview] No.30969 del
>>30865
He's really short!


Bernd 10/26/2019 (Sat) 19:04:29 [Preview] No.30973 del
what's happening in syria?
wasn't the war over already?


Bernd 10/27/2019 (Sun) 01:47:13 [Preview] No.30984 del
>>30973
This is never going to end bro.

Bretty much Afghanistan 2.0 at this point


Bernd 10/27/2019 (Sun) 10:27:27 [Preview] No.30994 del
Al-Baghdadi reportedly dead In a US raid.

I guess now that the ISIS stage of the Syrian Civil War is officially drawing to a close and we’re getting to the Mexican Standoff stage, they are mopping up the remains of all the patsies.


Bernd 11/05/2019 (Tue) 21:15:50 [Preview] No.31308 del
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Some clashes in northern Syria, SAA fights only against Turkish backed rebels. They also went back to shell and bomb rebels around Idlib.

>>30994
Yeah, suicide it seems. Well, probably sounded more comfy than getting interrogated by US national security. And probably it is.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/10/isil-chief-abu-bakr-al-baghdadi-killed-syria-confirms-trump-191027132540524.html


Bernd 11/06/2019 (Wed) 00:21:12 [Preview] No.31315 del
>>31308
>probably sounded more comfy than getting interrogated by US national security

With all due respect to the awesomeness of the Ride of the Valkyries helicopter assault scene in the film Apocalypse Now, the Americans didn't come crashing in playing AMERICA FUCK YEAH! or anything else. They may have been screaming at everyone to surrender, that is, screaming in Arabic. Special forces don't overtly identify themselves until it's all over, and usually not even then. Leaving your prisoners guessing is all part of the fun. It's the Russians who have a big rep in this part of the world for doing these sort of up close and personal operations. The Americans are known more for having an observer embedded with the locals to call in precision air strikes and artillery, plus a small special forces team to keep an eye on their observer for his own safety.

Al-Baghdadi probably thought he was facing Russians, or, just possibly, Turks.

In any event, once he realized his attackers were going to stand back so as to throw in yippy cuddly doggos and lickity sweet Adamsite, he knew it was over and he wouldn't get any chance to negotiate, or take some of them with him, or anything. Game over. "Fuck me gently with the greatness that is Allah!" Boom.

Al-Baghdadi wasn't going anywhere with anyone on anything but his own terms.


Bernd 11/06/2019 (Wed) 06:10:12 [Preview] No.31317 del
>>31315
>no, no we don't torture people it's... it's the evil russians and turksmells... yes...


Bernd 11/06/2019 (Wed) 10:08:27 [Preview] No.31320 del
>>30984
at least most of the people are in a safe place in europe


Bernd 11/06/2019 (Wed) 17:03:44 [Preview] No.31326 del
>>31320
Turkey got more. From all the migrants came to EU only the third is/was from Syria...


Bernd 11/07/2019 (Thu) 23:20:18 [Preview] No.31354 del
Erdogan will meet Trump at the White House next week.


Bernd 11/08/2019 (Fri) 08:54:00 [Preview] No.31358 del
>>31354
>>31354
Erdo met with Orban recently. r8


Bernd 11/08/2019 (Fri) 15:52:31 [Preview] No.31359 del
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>>31358
Scandal/10
Index has a whole subtitle just to make it easier to reach articles about the event. Were many protest and the police wasn't in it's best form apparently, barred wrong streets and places (trapped ~1500 unrelated pedestrians at a place, sent everyone back into the metro at another time) and such.
Articles in English:
https://index.hu/english/2019/11/07/turkey_hungary_relationship_economy_turkic_council_azerbaijan_energy_policy_syria/
https://index.hu/english/2019/11/07/erdogan_visit_budapest_protests_traffic_chaos_opposition/
https://index.hu/english/2019/11/07/turkey_hungary_erdogan_orban_meeting_syria_safe_zone_trade_cooperation/
Long reads, but quite a few pretty pictures to look at.


Bernd 11/08/2019 (Fri) 15:54:39 [Preview] No.31360 del
Also Turkey want to send back captured ISIS fighters to their homelands. Except UK and Netherlands withdrew their citizenship so those who arrived from there now they have nowhere to go.


Bernd 11/08/2019 (Fri) 16:57:00 [Preview] No.31361 del
>>31359
I hate erdoğan with everything I have. But opposition response seems stupid in this case. They complain about refugees yet be crybabies when we attempt to resettle them. Westerns are generally very oblivious around to their surroundings.


Bernd 11/08/2019 (Fri) 17:22:03 [Preview] No.31362 del
>>31361
Here oppositon opposing everything what governing party does. Even if it's the rational thing to do. Previously Jobbik stood together in some questions with the Fidesz since it fit in their narratives too. But now they're just the same as liberals/greens and socialists.


Bernd 11/08/2019 (Fri) 18:00:12 [Preview] No.31363 del
>>31362
>>31362
>Here oppositon opposing everything what governing party does.
Usually same case in here.


Bernd 11/08/2019 (Fri) 19:43:03 [Preview] No.31368 del
>>31359
That poster on the second image is just gorgeous.


Bernd 11/10/2019 (Sun) 07:27:12 [Preview] No.31411 del
>>31359
Oof, the way they write you can just tell that relations are a bit strained behind closed doors. Not that Orban really has much choice, the rest of Europe treats him with suspicion at best, so Erdogan is pretty much the best ally he has in the region so far. Plus, it seems like Hungary REALLY doesn't want to be doing trade in the energy sector with Russia.

>kurds are still oppressed in turkey

Honest question, why does the rest of Europe continued to behave like Turkish/Kurdish relations are still back at 80's levels?


Bernd 11/10/2019 (Sun) 09:27:01 [Preview] No.31416 del
>>31411
>>31411
>Honest question, why does the rest of Europe continued to behave like Turkish/Kurdish relations are still back at 80's levels?
Manipulating the reality gives you leverage and legitimation for your further actions.


Bernd 11/11/2019 (Mon) 23:53:48 [Preview] No.31452 del


Bernd 11/12/2019 (Tue) 17:06:31 [Preview] No.31524 del
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>>31452
ISIS is weird, it's supposed to be contained in the middle east but then you have branches like Boko Haram in Nigeria. And something else in Sierra Krone and the Ivory Coast but that just may be something else.


Bernd 11/12/2019 (Tue) 17:38:15 [Preview] No.31552 del
>>31524
>it's supposed to be contained in the middle east
Islam have spread to many places, and there will be people who would prefer IS. Even if it's many km's away.


Bernd 11/12/2019 (Tue) 18:02:59 [Preview] No.31559 del
Can I post about recent Israel happenings itt?


Bernd 11/12/2019 (Tue) 18:06:19 [Preview] No.31560 del
>>31559
Pls do.


Bernd 11/13/2019 (Wed) 01:13:04 [Preview] No.31624 del
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Rebels are still fighting a back-and-forth struggle with the SDF & loyalists in this corner.


Bernd 11/13/2019 (Wed) 06:18:21 [Preview] No.31633 del
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>>31624
Some fighting went down during the night there. Will see how events develop.
Meanwhile rebels at Idlib trying to reciprocate the shelling. They seem to be outmatched.


Bernd 11/14/2019 (Thu) 00:04:59 [Preview] No.31894 del
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Some autist interrupted a live broadcast of Erdogan's American visit.


Bernd 11/14/2019 (Thu) 00:08:57 [Preview] No.31896 del
>>31894
he sounds like he is from here.


Bernd 11/14/2019 (Thu) 00:34:49 [Preview] No.31897 del
>>31894
>Pentagon something something genocide
What did he say?


Bernd 11/14/2019 (Thu) 06:19:27 [Preview] No.31916 del
>>31894
Maybe Assad can into visitings someday (without being danger of arrest or something).

>>31896
This. That accent...

>>31897
>something something guilty of genocide


Bernd 11/14/2019 (Thu) 09:00:09 [Preview] No.31928 del
>>31524
>ISIS is weird, it's supposed to be contained in the middle east
It is as if they are Muslims.

But Shlomo told me in the news that isn't so and it perfectly save and the right thing to do to let in this children. Anything else would be literally Hitler!

Do you want to make little Anne Frank cry?


Bernd 11/14/2019 (Thu) 09:54:02 [Preview] No.31934 del
>>31361
>erdoğan opposition Westerns
Erdog is if not member then supporter of "Muslim Brotherhod", like Quatar and the USA.
USA gave them asylum in Germany and helped them establishing themselves.

US State Department supported the "color revolution" against Mubarak like they did against the Shah.


Consider President Eisenhower. In 1953, the year before the Brotherhood was outlawed by Nasser, a covert US propaganda program headed by the US Information Agency brought over three dozen Islamic scholars and civic leaders

One of the leaders, according to Eisenhower’s appointment book, was “The Honorable Saeed Ramahdan, Delegate of the Muslim Brothers.”* The person in question (in more standard romanization, Said Ramadan), was the son-in-law of the Brotherhood’s founder and at the time widely described as the group’s “foreign minister.” (He was also the father of the controversial Swiss scholar of Islam, Tariq Ramadan.)

By the end of the decade, the CIA was overtly backing Ramadan. While it’s too simple to call him a US agent, in the 1950s and 1960s the United States supported him as he took over a mosque in Munich, kicking out local Muslims to build what would become one of the Brotherhood’s most important centers—a refuge for the beleaguered group during its decades in the wilderness.

In later years, he supported the Iranian revolution and likely aided the flight of a pro-Teheran activist who murdered one of the Shah’s diplomats in Washington.

By Bush’s second term, the US was losing two wars in the Muslim world and facing hostile Muslim minorities in Germany, France, and other European countries, where the Brotherhood had established an influential presence. The US quietly changed its position.

The Bush administration devised a strategy to establish close relations with Muslim groups in Europe that were ideologically close to the Brotherhood.


Bernd 11/14/2019 (Thu) 20:33:12 [Preview] No.32028 del
>>31928
>zentralrat deutschland hat historische pflicht zur aufnahme von flüchtlingen.png

JUNGE FREIHEIT=>JUNGLE FREIHEIT


Bernd 11/15/2019 (Fri) 11:51:26 [Preview] No.32125 del
>>31934
Why are you telling me this? Also know that it wasn't the first time to we're asked to support rebels. Like more than 50 years ago anti baathists wanted our support for coup. More than a decade ago we're asked to stir some shit up in İran by using Azerbayjani nationalists, same case for Iraqi Türkmens. Literally everyone with a half brain in my country knew muslim brotherhood and "moderate islam"ists were american puppet.

Until the west supported "moderate islam"ist leader instead of strict secular ones we had good foreign policy. It's another let's fund a freak so we have a legit reason to attack them tactic. Stay classy guys.


Bernd 12/20/2019 (Fri) 16:17:05 [Preview] No.33249 del
SAA is on the offensive in Idlib.


Bernd 12/22/2019 (Sun) 16:10:54 [Preview] No.33302 del
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Rebel frontlines have folded, a counterattack was attempted on the SAA's left flank but to no avail and now the offensive was broadened to the south. There's a Turkish observation point near Surman which is being bypassed. Loyalists are already nearing Jarjanaz.


Bernd 12/22/2019 (Sun) 18:56:20 [Preview] No.33310 del
>>33302
Yeah, they making a pocket there. How much they can pinch off I wonder.


Bernd 12/30/2019 (Mon) 08:31:29 [Preview] No.33606 del
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They finished that cusp. They didn't create a pocket, just pushed back the frontline. I guess rebels withdrawn gradually, they knew they can't hold or launching a counter attack, and they would just lost manpower and war material if they allowed the SAA circle them.


Bernd 12/30/2019 (Mon) 11:12:23 [Preview] No.33607 del
>>33606
It was disappointing, they were doing quite well. Maybe they all went on holiday.


Bernd 12/30/2019 (Mon) 11:48:53 [Preview] No.33608 del
>>33607
Yeah this war turned to shit. Now SAA just mops up the patches.


Bernd 12/30/2019 (Mon) 12:09:42 [Preview] No.33609 del
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To be honest I'm not sure what are those rebels doing or hoping for. It's obvious the Syrian govt, will reclaim those lands and no outside help will arrive. They can get support from Turkey, material, but no troops. Via proxies from westerners too, but I don't think they bother much.
So the only place is left is the conference table. But time works for the Syrian govt. The more the rebels wait with surrender the less cards they'll have, the less they can negotiate with.


Bernd 12/30/2019 (Mon) 12:18:18 [Preview] No.33610 del
Apparently Turkey is sending SNA fighters to Libya, really bizarre. You would think they would at least set up a new Proxy force instead of importing one from another theatre and a theatre that is losing ground at that. I suspect that Turkey probably doesn't expect to hold Idlib, they just want the border areas already under their control.


Bernd 12/30/2019 (Mon) 12:31:56 [Preview] No.33611 del
>>33610
Well Turkey is concerned about the Kurds and a Kurdis I don't think she has much against the Syrian govt. Turkbernd surely has more precise insight in this.
It does seem like the Syrian conflict is done, but Libya is still an open question. So it is more important to influence the outcome there out on the fields.


sage Bernd 12/30/2019 (Mon) 12:45:32 [Preview] No.33612 del
>>33611
*Kurds and Kurdish independence,


Bernd 12/30/2019 (Mon) 19:07:57 [Preview] No.33620 del
>>33611
>>33610
Erdoğan needs foreign threats to keep his seat. We don't need to send soldiers to Libya every sane man knows that. It's typical "together united against the world" romanticism policy keeps him one piece and ruling.

>>33611
most of the Turks doesnt concern about kurds, they concern about terrorists.


Bernd 12/30/2019 (Mon) 20:11:45 [Preview] No.33624 del
>>33620
What's Erdo's justification for the intervention in Libya? Keeping Muslim brothers in power is good for Turkey?


Bernd 12/31/2019 (Tue) 00:30:14 [Preview] No.33633 del
>>33611
>Syrian conflict is done
And now Erdogan needs to get rid of his Syrian proxies, so dispatching them to another warzone is a convenient disposal method.
>>33624
A legalistic


Bernd 12/31/2019 (Tue) 00:32:41 [Preview] No.33634 del
excuse should be easy, as he's backing the internationally recognized government. And for Islamists, he can point to Haftar being the more secular side.


Bernd 12/31/2019 (Tue) 09:01:43 [Preview] No.33644 del
>>33624
>>33624
For enlarging territorial waters which will used for searching oil in medditerranean.

Of course he tries to justify this by saying Atatürk fought in there too (he was a volunteer against Italians and quite a succesfull one) but he forgets one thing. It's not our clay anymore. He also used justification that, UN recognizing that libyan guy, so it's legit. But the thing is UN recognizes Assad as sovereign ruler, so there is this one sided point of view of him.


Bernd 01/03/2020 (Fri) 03:27:50 [Preview] No.33733 del
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Press F to pay respects


Bernd 01/03/2020 (Fri) 06:19:45 [Preview] No.33734 del
>>33733
What happened?


Bernd 01/03/2020 (Fri) 08:15:08 [Preview] No.33736 del
>>33734
he kys'd


Bernd 01/03/2020 (Fri) 13:57:01 [Preview] No.33743 del
>>33733
To think his death pumped up crypto a little bit, this must be how it feels to be a neocon


Bernd 01/03/2020 (Fri) 15:00:18 [Preview] No.33744 del
>>33734
Mr Trump rocketed'd the dude while he was in Baghdad. He was some high ranking officer and apparently very liked person in Iran. Iran wants revenge. All that was done without declaration of war.


Bernd 01/03/2020 (Fri) 17:12:06 [Preview] No.33749 del
>>33736
Err.. I see.

>>33744
Thanks. I'll read up on it.


Bernd 01/03/2020 (Fri) 17:25:21 [Preview] No.33750 del
>>33734
Basically what >>33744 said, also #WWIII is trending on twitter
Also reminder that america did a training to train soldiers for a future war against iran and lost.
Hope this turns into another vietnam


Bernd 01/03/2020 (Fri) 17:32:24 [Preview] No.33751 del
>>33744
>All that was done without declaration of war.
Isn't that a given? Afaik 'state of war' in USA means just a formal recognition that they are going to increase civilian kills to the point that saying "oops" every time would be embarrassing, so don't expect them to.


Bernd 01/03/2020 (Fri) 17:40:14 [Preview] No.33752 del
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>starts a war against iran to get reelected
>posts us_fleg.jpeg
Wow


Bernd 01/03/2020 (Fri) 18:03:04 [Preview] No.33753 del
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>>33752
It's hilariously stupid. At least Israel may cease to exist

https://twitter.com/IranIntlbrk/status/1212994739097755648

Nice start for the decade


Bernd 01/03/2020 (Fri) 18:11:39 [Preview] No.33754 del
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>>33753
FUCK YEAH LETS DO THIS. With love - Your friends at /pol/


Bernd 01/03/2020 (Fri) 18:52:45 [Preview] No.33755 del
>>33753
>>33752
>kill angry brown man to start war
>say it was greatest allies intel
>greatest ally gets attacked by angry brown country
>greatest ally turns to big orange for help
>big orange simply laughs before saying "USS Liberty, 1488D check mate"


Bernd 01/03/2020 (Fri) 18:59:33 [Preview] No.33757 del
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Bernd 01/03/2020 (Fri) 19:38:20 [Preview] No.33758 del
CNN says:
>Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said the airstrikes disrupted an "imminent attack" in the region that put American lives at risk.
What attack? Whomster against?


Bernd 01/03/2020 (Fri) 20:30:17 [Preview] No.33761 del
Haaretz says US deployed 750 soldiers in Kuwait (after an attack - by Iran-backed militias - against US embassy in Baghdad), and now they send 3000 more.


Bernd 01/03/2020 (Fri) 21:10:38 [Preview] No.33763 del
>>33758

There was some attack on Iraqi/US base in region. Then counterattack of US on some bearded guys camp (Shia backed). Then protests around US embassy in Iraq after that attack.

And then this. Trump was very soft on Iran recently, so this looks like just typical show of power, like "hey guys, we are still the biggest guy in the room, don't forget about it"


Bernd 01/04/2020 (Sat) 08:19:52 [Preview] No.33767 del
>>33763
Wait. Didn't the USA attacked first back in 2003 or something?


Bernd 01/04/2020 (Sat) 20:46:51 [Preview] No.33782 del
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How many d chess are these playing?
https://www.rt.com/op-ed/477388-erdogan-intervention-libya-gas/
So this article says that:
- GNA is considered the legit govt. by the UN, therefor the free world, NATO, EU you name it
- GNA is supported by Turkey (since NATO takes their side it's given)
- LNA are rebels
- LNA is supported by Egypt, UAE and Russia
- the EU is establishing gas supply pipeline from Israel, via Grease and Cyprus
- Turkey supplies EU with gas from Russia via the TurkStream pipeline
- Turkey wants to establish common maritime border with Libya, he needs the GNA for this
- she does that to block the pipeline preserving the relevance of the TurkStream
This all means, that Turkey - and NATO led by the US - is supporting the enemy of a group that is supported by Russia to help Russia selling gas to EU, so they can block Israel the most important ally of the US in the region to do the same.
Which also means if the Russian backed rebels can oust the GNA then Israel, the most important ally of the US in the region, can sell gas to EU, but Russia will lose on the business.

Additional information:
- the article was written by an american
- the article was published in fuckin RT


Bernd 01/04/2020 (Sat) 22:22:46 [Preview] No.33783 del
>>33782
That's why they say geopolitics is just theatre. Everything is hyper-confusing.


Bernd 01/05/2020 (Sun) 00:25:29 [Preview] No.33785 del


Bernd 01/05/2020 (Sun) 00:50:35 [Preview] No.33787 del
>>30865
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is just an Islamic extremist dictator!


Bernd 01/05/2020 (Sun) 02:25:08 [Preview] No.33789 del
>>33787
Erdogan's not even relevant anymore. He's just going to sit it out while other countries take sides (since Turkey is both NATO, and has somewhat of an alliance with Iran and Russia).


Bernd 01/05/2020 (Sun) 07:32:19 [Preview] No.33792 del
>>33785
This reminds me the sabre rattling with North Korea. Except now elections are coming and he needs to do the most to his face be there in every home in every mind.
I don't think so this will evolve into an open conflict with Iran. At how many places US soldiers are deployed? Can they afford more fronts?
I think they withdrew forces from Syria they just need a good reason to shove them somewhere. The neighbourhood (like Iraq or Kuwait) will do fine.
Maybe he can rile up emotions, then play the peacemaker. The US dun goofed with Syria, she was taken away by Russia and Turkey (and Iran, but they are less in the media). With NK the situation is almost jovial. What big baddies are there really? China? It's an important source of consumercrap and the "trade war is going on anyway". That leaves basically Iran.

I wonder what he EU will say. Most of us are in the NATO, and the countries that matters (Germany, France and UK) were trying to make dealings with Iran, just think of this nuclear program question.


Bernd 01/05/2020 (Sun) 07:39:51 [Preview] No.33793 del
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>>33782

Nothing prevents Turkey to get agreement with LNA (at least article doesn't have any argument about this).

>>33785

Nothing will happen.


Bernd 01/05/2020 (Sun) 08:19:22 [Preview] No.33794 del
>>33793
Except LNA isn't the politically correct side to pick.
Furthermore I assume there are other things to play, hence the 3d (4? 5? 6?) chess.


Bernd 01/05/2020 (Sun) 08:43:49 [Preview] No.33797 del
>>33794
>Except LNA isn't the politically correct side to pick.

For Turkey? I don't think they care much.


Bernd 01/05/2020 (Sun) 08:46:17 [Preview] No.33798 del
>>33797
They are NATO.


Bernd 01/05/2020 (Sun) 08:47:44 [Preview] No.33799 del
>>33797
Also LNA is backed by Russians.
The two countries can make economical deals, but they cannot be on the same side of a military conflict, and maybe not on political sides.


Bernd 01/05/2020 (Sun) 09:06:54 [Preview] No.33800 del
>>33793
Backing the GNA will push Libya into the Turkish Sphere if they win, backing the LNA won't to the same degree as they would be competing with Russia and Russia has more pull than Turkey does. They probably have other deals with the LNA as well.


Bernd 01/05/2020 (Sun) 09:07:31 [Preview] No.33801 del
>>33800
I meant other deals with the GNA.


Bernd 01/05/2020 (Sun) 21:22:32 [Preview] No.33812 del
>>33792
>just need a good reason to shove them somewhere. The neighbourhood...will do fine.
iraq is likely out of the question
https://web.archive.org/web/20200105212110/https://www.foxnews.com/world/iraq-parliament-expulsion-us-troops-drone-attack


Bernd 01/05/2020 (Sun) 21:37:32 [Preview] No.33813 del
>>33812
Even with that it's not like NATO troops will leave overnight. The withdrawal can go on indefinitely.
Also this could fit into the peacemaker narrative. The US obligation of leaving might give Trump an excuse to give an empty gesture to Iran they can find acceptable without them losing face, troops return home, Trump can close the war in Iraw finally which goes on 16 17 years now. Gets reelected.


Bernd 01/05/2020 (Sun) 21:46:24 [Preview] No.33814 del
>>33793
>Nothing will happen.
That's what people said before WWI.
Now this happened:
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1213689342272659456


Bernd 01/05/2020 (Sun) 21:55:08 [Preview] No.33815 del
>>33792
They need Saudi Arabia (a major US front) to win the war. If they go wrong in Saudi Arabia, or if they try to stay away from the conflict, then they're fucked.
They need to withdraw from Afghanistan since the quagmire over there has basically resulted in them losing. Also, the Taliban are still heavily at odds with Iran (despite officially not being at conflict, they used to be, and they personally hate the Iranians being an anti-Sunni theocracy)


Bernd 01/05/2020 (Sun) 22:03:26 [Preview] No.33819 del
>>33782
Don't forget the LNA's ties to France and Israel.


Bernd 01/05/2020 (Sun) 22:24:30 [Preview] No.33820 del
>>33815
Btw Saudis. What's up with Yemen now?

>>33819
Tell me more.


Bernd 01/05/2020 (Sun) 22:36:08 [Preview] No.33822 del
>>33820
Basically nothing. "Yemen" is just a drug wasteland now.


Bernd 01/06/2020 (Mon) 00:53:26 [Preview] No.33825 del
>>33820
Israel's support is natural given the pipeline situation but it's very subtle. France's aims are harder to make out but its weapons have been found in the LNA's possession, though it's not open about it.
As neither of them like to talk about it Turks are among the biggest accusers:

https://www.trtworld.com/mea/despite-denials-france-s-support-for-libyan-warlord-haftar-is-laid-bare-26138/amp
https://www.trtworld.com/africa/how-khalifa-haftar-s-secret-ties-with-israel-fuel-chaos-in-libya-31941/amp


Bernd 01/06/2020 (Mon) 09:14:56 [Preview] No.33832 del
(73.21 KB 500x560 iran-and-saudi.jpg)
>>33814
>That's what people said before WWI.

And also that's what people said multiple times, and war didn't happen.

Compared to WWI, USA and Iran have no real points for serious conflict anyway (even when USA allies ask for this), and Iran is too strong for swift and easy takeover like Iraq was. Going into big bloody war is hard even for superpower like USA, if there is no real reason like defending own national territory. So, maybe it will end in some random strikes, maybe it will end in nothing at all. Iranians and related people, be they government sponsored or just fanatical guys, will surely do some things (like recent attack on Kenya), but probability of big long war is small. Also both sides (Iran and USA) aren't fanatical or mad, even if media paints them as such. We'll recently seen a good example of conflict between two normal countries (India vs Pakistan), when escalation suddenly stopped.

Of course I can be wrong, but predicting the future is hard task anyway.

Also, I don't recommend reading Trump's twitter at all. Or at least taking his writing seriously. It is written for specific audience, not for anyone like us.


Bernd 01/06/2020 (Mon) 16:06:10 [Preview] No.33833 del
>>33832
>Compared to WWI, USA and Iran have no real points for serious conflict anyway
Right now Iran has a bunch of proxies in Iraq and in Lebanon, and the USA is blaming them for smashing up their embassy.
>too strong for swift and easy takeover
How about the Taliban? Though they aren't as strong, they were dealing with a much harsher environment and they were conquered fairly quickly and switched to insurgency.


Bernd 01/06/2020 (Mon) 16:06:41 [Preview] No.33834 del
>>33833
So Iran isn't "Afghanistan on steroids". In-fact, it's less harsh than Afghanistan.


Bernd 01/06/2020 (Mon) 17:18:14 [Preview] No.33837 del
>>33825
Hm. The first article isn't the freshest and not very good proofs of French support. This line is interesting tho:
>Haftar [...] Backed by the UAE, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia, and with political support from Russia and the US
>US
Huh.
Second link is kinda fresh. Also confirms that an LNA led Lybia would help Israel with the pipeline.
And both article brings the Saudis into the picture as well.

>>33832
Those are good points.
>Trump's twitter
>It is written for specific audience, not for anyone like us.
Well true, and ofc we shouldn't take them seriously. But they can tell much, like that tweet earlier before Turkey started the "invasion" into Kurdish areas, and they had to pull US troops back, but allow Assad to send forces to "defend" the Kurds... Pretty gud reflection on the situation there, when everyone enveryone's enemy and ally at the same time directly or via proxies and he has to cover his and US diplomacy's ass while telling the world what's going on.


Bernd 01/06/2020 (Mon) 19:40:10 [Preview] No.33843 del
>>33833
>How about the Taliban? Though they aren't as strong, they were dealing with a much harsher environment and they were conquered fairly quickly and switched to insurgency.

Taliban had no real state nor united army, it was bunch of local armies hardened in constant war, joined in some kind of confederation. And that is why in first "real" fight with proper army they failed and moved straight to insurgency phase (some of them were just bought).

Iran has army, militia, large and relatively civilized population, proper economic and state. They even have military industry, maybe not best, but it isn't last industry in the world. They couldn't be easily crushed by limited bombing and fast troop strike. Of course USA will win long conventional war, but there will be casualties from US side, much more that in first phases of Iraq or Afghanistan war. Then war will go into insurgency stage, so it will be like Afghan, but on larger scale.

Good example is Serbia. In reality Serbs weren't finished by air phase of war (even most of their tanks survived), and they surrendered only because of political reasons (they also didn't want casualties). If Serbs were more stubborn and ideologically prepared, NATO would need to start land phase, and no one in NATO really wanted it (because casualties would be much bigger). It is easy to bomb someone in remote land with 100 soldiers dead, but would modern European country accept 10000 soldier deaths, especially when they are dying for unknown purpose? That is why most of modern conflicts are done with local proxy infantry, even Turks in Syria don't use own troops freely. And Iran is much stronger than Serbia in 1999.

Who will do land invasion into Iran? Saudis are only country that may want it, but they couldn't even beat some bearded guys in Yemen. Jews from Israel are too smart for this anyway, so they wouldn't. Maybe in future, when Iran collapses under some crisis and internal turmoil it would be easier, but now they are too big to be conquered by small expedition force.

>Right now Iran has a bunch of proxies in Iraq and in Lebanon, and the USA is blaming them for smashing up their embassy.

I guess everything will be limited to bombing proxy forces (by US) and terror acts (by proxies). Iraq will suffer anyway, they are in the middle.

By the way, there are conspiracy theories already, like Iranian government desided to remove Suleimani because he is dangerous for current leadership, and used Americans help in exchange of something, like new nuclear deal that will happen after current escalation.


Bernd 01/06/2020 (Mon) 20:14:16 [Preview] No.33844 del
>>33843
I don't think USA could win a war. They still haven't really won nor in Afghanistan neither in Iraq don't matter what they say. Iran would be another mire to be bogged down.
>conspiracy theories already, like Iranian government desided to remove Suleimani
I think the CIA has the next guy in line in their pocket. And now that guy is already in place.
There is also an opinion (I think from Israeli viewpoint) that Suleimani was an idiot that the US did a favor to Iran to remove him.
>desided
How Russian of you to misspell it.


Bernd 01/06/2020 (Mon) 20:58:42 [Preview] No.33846 del
>>33844
>I don't think USA could win a war

It also hard to really understand what will be considered a "win" in Afghanistan. Crush local forces and technically occupy country? They did it quickly. Install new government? This also happened. Stop the fighting between Taliban-like structures and that new government? This requires a good genocide, it couldn't be made in modern times. USA may install Taliban as new government, and they'll do that genocide though, but looks like that option is still unavailable for some reason.

So, there is no real goal now. Although I don't know what was their goal from the start, and I guess they don't know either.

>How Russian of you to misspell it.

English is hard. Why they need two different letters for one sound?


Bernd 01/06/2020 (Mon) 21:41:36 [Preview] No.33847 del
>>33846
>It also hard to really understand what will be considered a "win"
>So, there is no real goal now.
Yeah, that's that. Even back in Vietnam there wasn't a real goal (that could have been presented to the people and accepted by them) fighting no real enemy (since American troops couldn't enter the north and conquer it) on nonexistent fronts (which actually were everywhere).
And this situation now smells the same, if they try to hold the foothold in Iraq, they'll fight Iranian backed proxy forces, but they can't enter Iran and defeat them properly, so it can go on and on, even through generations.

>Why they need two different letters for one sound?
Yeah, they do that all the time. Such silliness.


Bernd 01/06/2020 (Mon) 22:35:23 [Preview] No.33849 del
>>33843
>Taliban had no real state nor united army, it was bunch of local armies hardened in constant war, joined in some kind of confederation
The Taliban was a unified army under a leader (Mullah Omar) that had the full support of much of the Pashtun population that it led, and controlled and had a central government in Kabul in which most people there had to swear an oath to a leader, which is very important in Afghanistan. The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan was de-facto a state, it was only unrecognised, and even then, it still had support from Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.


Bernd 01/07/2020 (Tue) 02:44:35 [Preview] No.33852 del
>>33849
They were also in a state of civil war against the Northern Alliance before the US even got involved.


Bernd 01/07/2020 (Tue) 08:37:06 [Preview] No.33857 del
(3.94 MB 720x580 gondola-afgan.webm)
>>33849
>The Taliban was a unified army under a leader (Mullah Omar) that had the full support of much of the Pashtun population that it led, and controlled and had a central government in Kabul in which most people there had to swear an oath to a leader, which is very important in Afghanistan.

But then many of local commanders (technically still warlords) joined Northern Alliance in Mazari-Sharif for example, and I guess many more just defected or changed sides in conflict.

This is Asian thing though, when people are loyal to another people, not to some abstract thing like country or nation (also that is why killing Suleimani matters - he was powerful men with skill, contacts and chain of command). Iraq quickly collapsed in second war by this scenario too, general just switched sides or quit, and many of Iraqi army units didn't even fight.

It is hard to say, could this be happen in Iran or not. Considering their history and state of the country, they must be less prone to these things, but who knows.


Bernd 01/08/2020 (Wed) 00:38:55 [Preview] No.33873 del
https://twitter.com/jakobandresen/status/1214699353622880256
>No Danish soldiers injured: Danish Armed Forces
Okay, it's confirmed Iran is now launching ballistic missiles into NATO bases in Iraq. The US is definitely going to respond to this.


Bernd 01/08/2020 (Wed) 01:39:02 [Preview] No.33874 del
Now British Airways BA134, coming from India to London has stopped near Kuwait.


Bernd 01/08/2020 (Wed) 01:53:48 [Preview] No.33876 del
>>33875
that sounds exaggerated. another tweet claiming 30 casualties? i feel like if any of those two were true, iran would be glass right now.


Bernd 01/08/2020 (Wed) 01:59:57 [Preview] No.33877 del
I think they mean Type 313 missiles.


Bernd 01/08/2020 (Wed) 02:19:13 [Preview] No.33878 del
>>33877
Yes, it was type 313 missiles. The actual damage (on the Al-Asad airbase) didn't seem to be so big, seeing a video of it, though I'm sure there were a few US casualties.


Bernd 01/08/2020 (Wed) 03:26:33 [Preview] No.33880 del
>>33878
Possibly, but then the missiles would have been picked up and they would know they are coming, I am not sure of the details of the base but it could be that the US portion had bunkers that the US troops could use to wait out such an attack and maybe the Iraqis didn't(or were not told and had less time to prepare).


Bernd 01/08/2020 (Wed) 06:44:05 [Preview] No.33885 del
>>33873
>>No Danish soldiers injured: Danish Armed Forces
Reminded me: "during the filming of this movie no animals were harmed", kek

>>33875
>>33877
Yeah a comment below says so, Fateh-313.

>>33878
>>33880
I'm reading in the news, that two sites were attacked, one is Erbil in the north where international contingent is stationed, Hungarians too (about 200). Two rockets "reached" the target: one was a near miss, but it was dead anyway so no explosion, the other misses by 33 kms.
There were warnings so both here and at al-Assad soldiers could retreat to their panic-rooms.
US claims no casualties.
Iran says this was a self-defense action, international/UN law allows it, it's no act of war.

I think they spent the last days searching for some loophole so they can do something but not really do something so they don't lose face, and what they can sell to their own citizens.


Bernd 01/08/2020 (Wed) 07:09:28 [Preview] No.33886 del
>>33885
>I think they spent the last days searching for some loophole so they can do something but not really do something so they don't lose face, and what they can sell to their own citizens.

Yes, you would think the US rhetoric to such an attack would be quite aggressive but Trump was actually quite calm about it and it looks like the situation has died right down with not a single US or Iranian soldier being lost. >>33843 may be closer to the truth than one would have first thought(not that I actually am wholly convinced).


Bernd 01/08/2020 (Wed) 17:22:13 [Preview] No.33889 del
>>33886
>. >>33843 may be closer to the truth than one would have first thought
Way too many times I can agree with his point. He is a scholar and a gentleman. But don't tell him this tho.
To be honest I frequently feel I'm the stupidest around here, I'm just the most "social" I think.


Bernd 01/08/2020 (Wed) 20:36:28 [Preview] No.33893 del
(692.95 KB 2501x4393 missile-ranges.jpg)
CNN now talks about deescalation and backing down n shiet.
On Reuters I read Trump talked about Iran standing down since no Americans were harmed in the missile strikes. Aljazeera says the same, also regional and world leaders called for deescalation. Oh all of them mentions new sanctions.
https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/443967/Iran-fires-missiles-at-U-S-air-base-to-avenge-Soleimani-assassination
>Iran’s television said over 80 U.S. forces have been reportedly killed in the missile strikes, citing a source close to the IRGC.

In Iraq early elections are coming, they'll have - if everything goes in order - a new govt in the next two weeks. And then they hope to expel foreign troops and restore independence.

I don't like this map. I assumes that the missiles will be launched from the center of Iran.


Bernd 01/09/2020 (Thu) 06:52:11 [Preview] No.33896 del
(572.39 KB 1456x835 2020-01-09-idlib.png)
What happened with the Ukro airplane over Iran? I put this link here for later read.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/01/ukraine-rule-attack-plane-crash-iran-200108175322733.html
Anyway this explosive situation seems to be dying down. Another article says the assassination of Suleimani helps the Iraninan govt. stop losing popularity and restore inner stability.

Meanwhile in Syria changed little. Some ISIS activity near Deir ez-Zor.


Bernd 01/09/2020 (Thu) 13:26:37 [Preview] No.33897 del
>>33896
What if it was an inside job, or if the death was intentionally faked to create a strong Iran for a potential war?


Bernd 01/09/2020 (Thu) 18:03:36 [Preview] No.33914 del
>>33896
>What happened with the Ukro airplane over Iran?
Probably trigger-happy Iranian AA.


Bernd 01/09/2020 (Thu) 21:14:32 [Preview] No.33921 del
>>33914

Yes, that is one theory, although it is strange. It is possible when you have lonely aircraft suddenly appearing in some air defense region, but there is a route where many planes fly every day. Air defense crew always see this on radar, yet at that night they mistake civilian plane for enemy target? Although this is a possible situation. It isn't comparable with MH17 for many reasons.

If that happened, Iran is in bad condition. They already lost many people just at funeral of Suleimani, now they shoot civilian plane. Maybe USA just need to wait.

Another theory, widely circulated in media, is engine failure. Boeing of same type had fan blade failure resulting in one dead passenger (blade penetrated hull) some time ago. This is pretty bad thing, because engine must be protected from this, as regulations stay (engine hull must contain any broken fan blade). Technically it isn't Boeing fail (engine is made by French), but it is Boeing task to control this.

https://www.flightglobal.com/in-depth/boeing-commits-to-ntsbs-recommended-cfm56-fan-cowl-redesign/135468.article

And story about 737 MAX is still going, so Boeing surely doesn't want another reputation hit, and will try to blame everything to move investigation into other side.


Bernd 01/09/2020 (Thu) 23:40:57 [Preview] No.33929 del
>>33896
>What happened with the Ukro airplane over Iran?
Trump said, sic, "it was flying over pretty rough neighborhood", so I'll believe him.

In NWO we don't do silly things like declare wars (=asking for it), we just know that some states are run by democrats (Detroit, Iran, all these kinds of antifa-terrorist-etc enclaves), and those kinds of rough neighborhoods may result in planes getting shot down.


Bernd 01/10/2020 (Fri) 06:28:21 [Preview] No.33939 del
>>33929
>it was flying over pretty rough neighborhood
Aint't that the truth?


Bernd 01/10/2020 (Fri) 21:55:05 [Preview] No.33954 del
>>33921
>it is strange
>there is a route where many planes fly every day. Air defense crew always see this on radar,
Also it was on outbound course from Iron to Ukraine, and not inbound:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-crash/iran-to-probe-black-boxes-after-missile-blamed-for-plane-crash-idUSKBN1Z9250
Funny line:
>Ukraine is looking at various possible causes of the crash, including an attack by a Russian-made missile
Putin personally shot down the airplane.
More fun:
>Tehran said earlier that it may ask Russia, Canada, France or Ukraine for help in a probe that could take one or two years to complete.
Iran might wanna manipulate data if really they downed it.
France might wanna manipulate data if the engine was faulty.
Ukraine might wanna manipulate data to blame Russia for the missiles.
Russia might wanna manipulate data to cover up their fault due missiles.
Canada... well Trudeau blames Iran, saying they downed the craft, but do they have any motivation for data tampering?


Bernd 01/17/2020 (Fri) 21:47:15 [Preview] No.34100 del
(376.10 KB 1185x781 idlib 2020 january 17.png)
Rebels advanced over some villages.


Bernd 01/18/2020 (Sat) 08:14:48 [Preview] No.34106 del
>>34100
I guess their closer goal is Marrat al-Newman and the M5 road there.
Where can I find that map you use sometimes, like here >>33302 ? It has physical layer which offers more info in itself.


Bernd 01/20/2020 (Mon) 19:06:13 [Preview] No.34157 del
>>34106
>Where can I find that map you use sometimes
Those are periodically made by mapmakers.


Bernd 01/21/2020 (Tue) 06:31:51 [Preview] No.34168 del
>>34157
Oh yeah, I followed the watermark to muraselon.com


Bernd 01/23/2020 (Thu) 19:13:00 [Preview] No.34217 del
(413.08 KB 806x839 2020-01-23-idlib.png)
Hmm. Activities shifted to the north in Idlib area. It mostly just shelling and bombing no engagements.


Bernd 01/23/2020 (Thu) 19:34:53 [Preview] No.34218 del
>>34217
Erdogan is a lot more sensitive about the north, he would veto any offensive there. West of the M5 there are sometimes skirmishes in Latakia and the Ghab plain but those places are locked in attrition warfare, understandably for Latakia as it's rough terrain but not for the plain.


Bernd 01/23/2020 (Thu) 20:49:55 [Preview] No.34222 del
>>34218
Now that I saw a physical map (openstreetmap) it seems the most open way to Idlib is straight from the east. Lucky for the SAA. I wonder what kind of resistance is there about, fortifications, units.
Made me think if google taking sat images there and if the war left recognizable imprint on the landscape.


Bernd 01/24/2020 (Fri) 19:25:59 [Preview] No.34235 del
And suddenly red dots everywhere with neat little bombs on them.
Judging by those two green Kalashnikovs (they say rebels stopped advancing, infiltrating SAA troops) about those two depressions in the front the govt. forces started a new offensive.


Bernd 01/24/2020 (Fri) 19:30:54 [Preview] No.34236 del
(479.78 KB 934x848 2020-01-24-idlib.png)


Bernd 01/26/2020 (Sun) 02:45:27 [Preview] No.34253 del
(547.48 KB 1206x791 idlib 25 jan 2020.png)
Knock knock.


Bernd 01/26/2020 (Sun) 07:21:39 [Preview] No.34254 del
>>34253
Who's there?


Bernd 01/26/2020 (Sun) 21:54:12 [Preview] No.34281 del
(601.97 KB 1189x786 idlib 26 jan 2020.png)
Rebels counterattacked the army's spearhead pointed at Maraat al-Numan to no avail and have now lost the city's northern flank and highway connection. There's more activity elsewhere, a lot of loyalist casualties in Aleppo, a car bomb in Azaz and Turkish shelling of yellow territory.


Bernd 01/27/2020 (Mon) 06:45:48 [Preview] No.34283 del
>>34281
Last news from 7 hours ago. Situation seems to be the same.
I wonder how precise this map is. I tried reading news (syrianews, aljazeera, reuters) but they report only very vaguely. No settlement names at all, or just the most important (Ma’rat al-Numan).


Bernd 01/27/2020 (Mon) 21:05:39 [Preview] No.34303 del
(422.54 KB 1189x752 idlib 27 jan 2020.png)
SAA is going all out on the highway.
>>34283
>I wonder how precise this map is
It just compiles information from a number of sources and displays it cartographically. Back in the day a source would report a territorial change and another source from the opposing side would say "no, the attack was pushed back" or "we lost the village but counterattacked and regained it". But it's been long since I last heard contradicting information like that.


Bernd 01/28/2020 (Tue) 06:31:00 [Preview] No.34305 del
>>34303
I see.
The offensives are one sided too now, maybe there are no important changes happens on that level to worth noting it. Or maybe those who could make corrections in the media, journalists, are way less in numbers in the rebel camp now that the situation is getting really dangerous.
They report on the condemnation by the US govt. of this attack. This isn't in the headlines of the front pages of news sites, so I guess it isn't a big thing. How often the US govt does such thing? Is it a routine? "While we cannot do about it anything we have to condemn the Assad regime." Or maybe this happened now because of the tension with Iran?


Bernd 01/28/2020 (Tue) 18:01:16 [Preview] No.34321 del
They are in. Also made advancement at Aleppo.


Bernd 01/30/2020 (Thu) 12:36:31 [Preview] No.34365 del
SAA still has momentum and rides down the highway to Saraqib. Makes sense as the terrain is unfavorable to the west. Aleppo was a lot harder, the rebels even briefly advanced there.


Bernd 01/30/2020 (Thu) 12:40:46 [Preview] No.34366 del
>Ramuse Artillery base
>1070 apartments
Familiar names.
In other news HTS installed communications equipment over the central hospital in Idlib, which ceased operations in response.


Bernd 01/30/2020 (Thu) 18:50:48 [Preview] No.34377 del
>>34365
I imagine in he south the SAA had the main task force, where they could hope for the least resistance and a more favourable avenue. Maybe they also got lucky and punched a hole at the M5.


Bernd 01/31/2020 (Fri) 11:39:02 [Preview] No.34394 del
(562.61 KB 1188x750 idlib 31 jan 2020.png)
Arbiter Erdogan sounds his whistle.


Bernd 02/15/2020 (Sat) 18:53:02 [Preview] No.34403 del
Shelling and bombing is getting prepared the opposition for a renewed attack.


Bernd 02/16/2020 (Sun) 00:40:07 [Preview] No.34414 del
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(139.27 KB 720x960 EQzcvP0XYAEZdyf.jpg)
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>>34403
You got the direction right, north of Aleppo. But they're moving west of the actual road in a pincer movement. The northern flanks is moving from YPG territory and sources clash on YPG proper partaking in the fighting.
Meanwhile repair work is ongoing in the M5.


Bernd 02/16/2020 (Sun) 06:53:50 [Preview] No.34418 del
So many happenings have happened while the site was down... Sad.

I really wonder what Erdogan will do, it's getting to the point where a confrontation is inevitable. Either the Turks are going to leave or they are going to have to do something.


Bernd 02/16/2020 (Sun) 09:04:49 [Preview] No.34422 del
>>34414
Well, they will try and cut off that corner.
YPG participating would gain them some goodwill at minimum. I dunno what was the Kurds situation in Syria before the war, but they can be important elements of rebuilding the country after the war.

>>34418
Yes. We were at sportschan during downtime: https://sportschan.wrigel.xyz/kc
We had some discussions there.
I think Erdo will posture like a cock (the bird, not the penis) until the new lines, "security zones" are getting made. They continue to send war materials to the rebels, and try avoiding more Turkish soldiers killed. So they'll do something without actually doing anything.


Bernd 02/16/2020 (Sun) 16:43:38 [Preview] No.34430 del
Rebels giving up that corner. Wonder at what line the front will solidify.


Bernd 02/16/2020 (Sun) 17:23:06 [Preview] No.34432 del
>>34430
Not much in the northern pincer. Maybe it's just a distraction attack, rebels are better entrenched in the older frontline or YPG, a poorly armed force, is indeed participating. At the national level SDF have lengthy serious discussions with the government about reconciliation but they've never gone anywhere due to mutual stubbornness and American obstruction. The many groups in the SDF have different opinions, those closer to Turkey are friendlier to Assad while Arabs, particularly old FSA groups, refuse a deal. What happens is concrete cooperation at the local level and Afrin is a particularly close example, the local YPG were the only non-hostile border in the Nubl&Zahraa pocket and local NDF later repaid the favor helping out during Olive Branch. Or the YPG along the border in general, which invited the army to protect them from the most recent Turkish invasion.


Bernd 02/16/2020 (Sun) 18:23:38 [Preview] No.34434 del
>>34432
I reckon the danger of an encirclement and being cut off might have been enough to decide to empty out the area.


Bernd 02/17/2020 (Mon) 19:09:26 [Preview] No.34452 del
Straightening out the front.


Bernd 02/17/2020 (Mon) 23:20:42 [Preview] No.34465 del
>>34452
Yellow skull is a report of SDF casualties, maybe they really were participating but kept a low profile. The road from Aleppo to Menagh airbase is open. Flights to Damascus and Cairo will soon resume from Aleppo. From what it seems this operation should go on for a while.


Bernd 02/18/2020 (Tue) 06:25:21 [Preview] No.34466 del
>>34465
It seems they have the momentum.
From the shelling, which renewed around Idlib again, they might just push further, and no security zone will be established.


Bernd 02/19/2020 (Wed) 00:38:23 [Preview] No.34491 del
Nothing for today, it seems.


Bernd 02/19/2020 (Wed) 01:38:11 [Preview] No.34493 del
>>34466
Maybe, it will be interesting to see what happens when they reach the border area. They are going to be have fire control over the roads leading into Syria but also Turkey may decide that they will just shell the Syrians from within Turkey itself if they get that close, making it hard to respond(but then I guess they have been shelling them any way and it hasn't done much to stop them).


Bernd 02/19/2020 (Wed) 06:27:22 [Preview] No.34495 del
>>34491
>>34493
The shelling is getting stopped. Right now I suspect they will really create that security zone in the end.
Oh well, every fun has to end sometimes, even butchering each other.


Bernd 02/19/2020 (Wed) 18:51:23 [Preview] No.34500 del
>>34495
I have to correct myself. They probably still want that piece of road south of Idlib (M4?).


Bernd 02/19/2020 (Wed) 19:32:31 [Preview] No.34501 del
>>34500
There are reports of reinforcements moving precisely into that direction, towards Saraqib which is at the M4/M5 junction. The next target would then be Arihah.


Bernd 02/20/2020 (Thu) 16:12:17 [Preview] No.34512 del
(25.52 KB 521x243 rotfl.png)


Bernd 02/20/2020 (Thu) 16:33:40 [Preview] No.34514 del
(371.88 KB 363x639 not-pine.png)
(82.70 KB 395x281 disgusted.gif)
>>34509
Were you missed the turn and ended up in Syria?
>not pine air freshener


Bernd 02/20/2020 (Thu) 16:34:32 [Preview] No.34515 del
>>34514
I mean, did you miss ofc.


Bernd 02/20/2020 (Thu) 20:47:08 [Preview] No.34521 del
>>34512
>>34513
I think it's just part of the sabre rattling, for the show that Erdogan is very serious. I doubt real conflict will arise. But if WWIII breaks out, what can we do?


Bernd 02/20/2020 (Thu) 20:50:46 [Preview] No.34522 del
>>34514
>Were you missed the turn and ended up in Syria?

I ask myself same question when I see local roads.

>not pine air freshener

Not a boring common pine, but majestic grape!

Also, I don't like hanging things, but have a guard dog.


Bernd 02/20/2020 (Thu) 22:21:42 [Preview] No.34527 del
Busy day in Neyrab. Loyalists attacked. To great fanfare and announcements of a grand offensive towards the encircled observation posts, rebels counterattacked with massive Turkish support. Russia called Erdogan's bluff and just leveled them off with airstrikes, allowing loyalists to countercounterattack. They're back in control of the city.
Meanwhile evidence of Turkish weapons in HTS hands continues to surface.



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