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Syria thread - Erdoğan edition Bernd 10/24/2019 (Thu) 01:43:41 [Preview] No. 30865
Erdogan has met Putin and ironed out the partition of northeastern Syria. He gets to keep everything he conquered and the rest stays with Assad. YPG retreats from a 30km strip along the border, leaving the bulk of Kurdish-populated areas. Russo-Turkish patrols guard the safe zone. The deal shows two things:
By inviting Assad the SDF have completely relinquished their sovereignty. This was why they were so relutanct to receive aid during Olive Branch. As long as Erdogan maintains good relations with Assad and Putin, YPG will no longer bother him. If, however, relations sour then he can even expect a repeat of the 90s, when Hafez sheltered Ocalan and allowed PKK to use Syria as its base of operations.
The deal was discussed with Putin, not Assad. It's also clear who calls the shots.

For locals conquered by Peace Spring, the problem is not Turkey itself but its Syrian rebel puppets, who are thugs and mistreat the population, as has already been the case in Afrin. For the war as a whole, peace is now closer. Once Idlib is sorted out, a simple deal with Turkey can grant Assad the whole country except for al-Tanf.

Bernd 10/24/2019 (Thu) 03:02:36 [Preview] No.30868 del
The attack of Turkey to the kurds was pretty sudden. The last I remember before it was that Assad was making gains from dealing with ISIS and FSA, kurds weren't even an issue but just this month they started cracking down on them.

Bernd 10/24/2019 (Thu) 21:07:53 [Preview] No.30888 del
Erdoğan is a genius allien from area 51.

Bernd 10/24/2019 (Thu) 22:37:32 [Preview] No.30890 del
https://youtube.com/watch?v=_0JEP15Zifk [Embed]

click if you're sick of "Turkey is dropping tsar bomb on kurds UN-NATO help!!1!11!!" type of news.

Bernd 10/24/2019 (Thu) 22:42:04 [Preview] No.30891 del
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>not linking to proofs
very bad erdogan

Bernd 10/24/2019 (Thu) 23:22:56 [Preview] No.30894 del
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>asking for proofs

Bernd 10/25/2019 (Fri) 00:53:56 [Preview] No.30897 del
>The attack of Turkey to the kurds was pretty sudden
Turkey invading is no surprise, Erdogan has made clear his intention for a long time. What was sudden was American withdrawal, and even then that wasn't totally unpredictable as Trump promised to get out of Syria.
>The last I remember before it was that Assad was making gains from dealing with ISIS
That was all the way back in late 2017, when he and the SDF advanced up to the Euphrates reducing ISIS to a small strip at the left bank and some pockets in the desert. The residual Caliphate was defeated this year and only the desert presence remains.
The Free Syrian Army itself has effectively ceased to exist years ago, though Turkish-controlled rebels are sometimes called "TFSA". The rebels overall suffered major defeats with all their pockets including Damascus being cleared by 2018, leaving only "Greater Idlib" which has lost a lot of territory with a campaign taking place there just a few months ago.

Bernd 10/25/2019 (Fri) 05:14:46 [Preview] No.30900 del
Wanted to post these yesterday. Maybe outdated now.

Bernd 10/25/2019 (Fri) 13:29:18 [Preview] No.30906 del
America will keep a small contingent at the Euphrates to control the oil fields. Silly, as their actual output is small. All this achieves is prolonging the war.

Bernd 10/25/2019 (Fri) 16:32:21 [Preview] No.30919 del
Now the SAA can go back to slice up the Idlib rebels.
After that there's still the Turkey backed rebels. But I suppose negotiations will start. About something.

Bernd 10/25/2019 (Fri) 16:46:32 [Preview] No.30924 del
I don't think I'll ever be able to comprehend the suffering of the kurds.

Bernd 10/26/2019 (Sat) 08:59:25 [Preview] No.30945 del
Pretty sure Syria is gonna get partitioned. The Turkish military won't go anywhere, the Russians pretty much have Assad by the balls, he's their puppet now and the US is still staying there. Basically, pre-2011 Syria is not coming back.

Turkey will drop those rebels like a hot potato. Sure, they won't attack them directly but they won't lift a finger to stop the Syrian and Russian forces from bombing them to shit.

Bernd 10/26/2019 (Sat) 09:57:23 [Preview] No.30947 del
It's not the first time syrians wanted to rebel, during the papa assad's time, islamists wanted our support for a coup, but we refused. Only reason we jumped this mess because erdoğan is an islamist and he was doing will of USA.

Only now he kinda turned to Russia, he is still a bad politican. He is the reason why my country couldnt handle it unlike previous leaders.

Bernd 10/26/2019 (Sat) 15:39:29 [Preview] No.30969 del
He's really short!

Bernd 10/26/2019 (Sat) 19:04:29 [Preview] No.30973 del
what's happening in syria?
wasn't the war over already?

Bernd 10/27/2019 (Sun) 01:47:13 [Preview] No.30984 del
This is never going to end bro.

Bretty much Afghanistan 2.0 at this point

Bernd 10/27/2019 (Sun) 10:27:27 [Preview] No.30994 del
Al-Baghdadi reportedly dead In a US raid.

I guess now that the ISIS stage of the Syrian Civil War is officially drawing to a close and we’re getting to the Mexican Standoff stage, they are mopping up the remains of all the patsies.

Bernd 11/05/2019 (Tue) 21:15:50 [Preview] No.31308 del
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Some clashes in northern Syria, SAA fights only against Turkish backed rebels. They also went back to shell and bomb rebels around Idlib.

Yeah, suicide it seems. Well, probably sounded more comfy than getting interrogated by US national security. And probably it is.

Bernd 11/06/2019 (Wed) 00:21:12 [Preview] No.31315 del
>probably sounded more comfy than getting interrogated by US national security

With all due respect to the awesomeness of the Ride of the Valkyries helicopter assault scene in the film Apocalypse Now, the Americans didn't come crashing in playing AMERICA FUCK YEAH! or anything else. They may have been screaming at everyone to surrender, that is, screaming in Arabic. Special forces don't overtly identify themselves until it's all over, and usually not even then. Leaving your prisoners guessing is all part of the fun. It's the Russians who have a big rep in this part of the world for doing these sort of up close and personal operations. The Americans are known more for having an observer embedded with the locals to call in precision air strikes and artillery, plus a small special forces team to keep an eye on their observer for his own safety.

Al-Baghdadi probably thought he was facing Russians, or, just possibly, Turks.

In any event, once he realized his attackers were going to stand back so as to throw in yippy cuddly doggos and lickity sweet Adamsite, he knew it was over and he wouldn't get any chance to negotiate, or take some of them with him, or anything. Game over. "Fuck me gently with the greatness that is Allah!" Boom.

Al-Baghdadi wasn't going anywhere with anyone on anything but his own terms.

Bernd 11/06/2019 (Wed) 06:10:12 [Preview] No.31317 del
>no, no we don't torture people it's... it's the evil russians and turksmells... yes...

Bernd 11/06/2019 (Wed) 10:08:27 [Preview] No.31320 del
at least most of the people are in a safe place in europe

Bernd 11/06/2019 (Wed) 17:03:44 [Preview] No.31326 del
Turkey got more. From all the migrants came to EU only the third is/was from Syria...

Bernd 11/07/2019 (Thu) 23:20:18 [Preview] No.31354 del
Erdogan will meet Trump at the White House next week.

Bernd 11/08/2019 (Fri) 08:54:00 [Preview] No.31358 del
Erdo met with Orban recently. r8

Bernd 11/08/2019 (Fri) 15:52:31 [Preview] No.31359 del
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Index has a whole subtitle just to make it easier to reach articles about the event. Were many protest and the police wasn't in it's best form apparently, barred wrong streets and places (trapped ~1500 unrelated pedestrians at a place, sent everyone back into the metro at another time) and such.
Articles in English:
Long reads, but quite a few pretty pictures to look at.

Bernd 11/08/2019 (Fri) 15:54:39 [Preview] No.31360 del
Also Turkey want to send back captured ISIS fighters to their homelands. Except UK and Netherlands withdrew their citizenship so those who arrived from there now they have nowhere to go.

Bernd 11/08/2019 (Fri) 16:57:00 [Preview] No.31361 del
I hate erdoğan with everything I have. But opposition response seems stupid in this case. They complain about refugees yet be crybabies when we attempt to resettle them. Westerns are generally very oblivious around to their surroundings.

Bernd 11/08/2019 (Fri) 17:22:03 [Preview] No.31362 del
Here oppositon opposing everything what governing party does. Even if it's the rational thing to do. Previously Jobbik stood together in some questions with the Fidesz since it fit in their narratives too. But now they're just the same as liberals/greens and socialists.

Bernd 11/08/2019 (Fri) 18:00:12 [Preview] No.31363 del
>Here oppositon opposing everything what governing party does.
Usually same case in here.

Bernd 11/08/2019 (Fri) 19:43:03 [Preview] No.31368 del
That poster on the second image is just gorgeous.

Bernd 11/10/2019 (Sun) 07:27:12 [Preview] No.31411 del
Oof, the way they write you can just tell that relations are a bit strained behind closed doors. Not that Orban really has much choice, the rest of Europe treats him with suspicion at best, so Erdogan is pretty much the best ally he has in the region so far. Plus, it seems like Hungary REALLY doesn't want to be doing trade in the energy sector with Russia.

>kurds are still oppressed in turkey

Honest question, why does the rest of Europe continued to behave like Turkish/Kurdish relations are still back at 80's levels?

Bernd 11/10/2019 (Sun) 09:27:01 [Preview] No.31416 del
>Honest question, why does the rest of Europe continued to behave like Turkish/Kurdish relations are still back at 80's levels?
Manipulating the reality gives you leverage and legitimation for your further actions.

Bernd 11/11/2019 (Mon) 23:53:48 [Preview] No.31452 del

Bernd 11/12/2019 (Tue) 17:06:31 [Preview] No.31524 del
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ISIS is weird, it's supposed to be contained in the middle east but then you have branches like Boko Haram in Nigeria. And something else in Sierra Krone and the Ivory Coast but that just may be something else.

Bernd 11/12/2019 (Tue) 17:38:15 [Preview] No.31552 del
>it's supposed to be contained in the middle east
Islam have spread to many places, and there will be people who would prefer IS. Even if it's many km's away.

Bernd 11/12/2019 (Tue) 18:02:59 [Preview] No.31559 del
Can I post about recent Israel happenings itt?

Bernd 11/12/2019 (Tue) 18:06:19 [Preview] No.31560 del
Pls do.

Bernd 11/13/2019 (Wed) 01:13:04 [Preview] No.31624 del
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Rebels are still fighting a back-and-forth struggle with the SDF & loyalists in this corner.

Bernd 11/13/2019 (Wed) 06:18:21 [Preview] No.31633 del
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Some fighting went down during the night there. Will see how events develop.
Meanwhile rebels at Idlib trying to reciprocate the shelling. They seem to be outmatched.

Bernd 11/14/2019 (Thu) 00:04:59 [Preview] No.31894 del
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Some autist interrupted a live broadcast of Erdogan's American visit.

Bernd 11/14/2019 (Thu) 00:08:57 [Preview] No.31896 del
he sounds like he is from here.

Bernd 11/14/2019 (Thu) 00:34:49 [Preview] No.31897 del
>Pentagon something something genocide
What did he say?

Bernd 11/14/2019 (Thu) 06:19:27 [Preview] No.31916 del
Maybe Assad can into visitings someday (without being danger of arrest or something).

This. That accent...

>something something guilty of genocide

Bernd 11/14/2019 (Thu) 09:00:09 [Preview] No.31928 del
>ISIS is weird, it's supposed to be contained in the middle east
It is as if they are Muslims.

But Shlomo told me in the news that isn't so and it perfectly save and the right thing to do to let in this children. Anything else would be literally Hitler!

Do you want to make little Anne Frank cry?

Bernd 11/14/2019 (Thu) 09:54:02 [Preview] No.31934 del
>erdoğan opposition Westerns
Erdog is if not member then supporter of "Muslim Brotherhod", like Quatar and the USA.
USA gave them asylum in Germany and helped them establishing themselves.

US State Department supported the "color revolution" against Mubarak like they did against the Shah.

Consider President Eisenhower. In 1953, the year before the Brotherhood was outlawed by Nasser, a covert US propaganda program headed by the US Information Agency brought over three dozen Islamic scholars and civic leaders

One of the leaders, according to Eisenhower’s appointment book, was “The Honorable Saeed Ramahdan, Delegate of the Muslim Brothers.”* The person in question (in more standard romanization, Said Ramadan), was the son-in-law of the Brotherhood’s founder and at the time widely described as the group’s “foreign minister.” (He was also the father of the controversial Swiss scholar of Islam, Tariq Ramadan.)

By the end of the decade, the CIA was overtly backing Ramadan. While it’s too simple to call him a US agent, in the 1950s and 1960s the United States supported him as he took over a mosque in Munich, kicking out local Muslims to build what would become one of the Brotherhood’s most important centers—a refuge for the beleaguered group during its decades in the wilderness.

In later years, he supported the Iranian revolution and likely aided the flight of a pro-Teheran activist who murdered one of the Shah’s diplomats in Washington.

By Bush’s second term, the US was losing two wars in the Muslim world and facing hostile Muslim minorities in Germany, France, and other European countries, where the Brotherhood had established an influential presence. The US quietly changed its position.

The Bush administration devised a strategy to establish close relations with Muslim groups in Europe that were ideologically close to the Brotherhood.

Bernd 11/14/2019 (Thu) 20:33:12 [Preview] No.32028 del
>zentralrat deutschland hat historische pflicht zur aufnahme von flüchtlingen.png


Bernd 11/15/2019 (Fri) 11:51:26 [Preview] No.32125 del
Why are you telling me this? Also know that it wasn't the first time to we're asked to support rebels. Like more than 50 years ago anti baathists wanted our support for coup. More than a decade ago we're asked to stir some shit up in İran by using Azerbayjani nationalists, same case for Iraqi Türkmens. Literally everyone with a half brain in my country knew muslim brotherhood and "moderate islam"ists were american puppet.

Until the west supported "moderate islam"ist leader instead of strict secular ones we had good foreign policy. It's another let's fund a freak so we have a legit reason to attack them tactic. Stay classy guys.

Bernd 12/20/2019 (Fri) 16:17:05 [Preview] No.33249 del
SAA is on the offensive in Idlib.

Bernd 12/22/2019 (Sun) 16:10:54 [Preview] No.33302 del
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Rebel frontlines have folded, a counterattack was attempted on the SAA's left flank but to no avail and now the offensive was broadened to the south. There's a Turkish observation point near Surman which is being bypassed. Loyalists are already nearing Jarjanaz.

Bernd 12/22/2019 (Sun) 18:56:20 [Preview] No.33310 del
Yeah, they making a pocket there. How much they can pinch off I wonder.

Bernd 12/30/2019 (Mon) 08:31:29 [Preview] No.33606 del
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They finished that cusp. They didn't create a pocket, just pushed back the frontline. I guess rebels withdrawn gradually, they knew they can't hold or launching a counter attack, and they would just lost manpower and war material if they allowed the SAA circle them.

Bernd 12/30/2019 (Mon) 11:12:23 [Preview] No.33607 del
It was disappointing, they were doing quite well. Maybe they all went on holiday.

Bernd 12/30/2019 (Mon) 11:48:53 [Preview] No.33608 del
Yeah this war turned to shit. Now SAA just mops up the patches.

Bernd 12/30/2019 (Mon) 12:09:42 [Preview] No.33609 del
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To be honest I'm not sure what are those rebels doing or hoping for. It's obvious the Syrian govt, will reclaim those lands and no outside help will arrive. They can get support from Turkey, material, but no troops. Via proxies from westerners too, but I don't think they bother much.
So the only place is left is the conference table. But time works for the Syrian govt. The more the rebels wait with surrender the less cards they'll have, the less they can negotiate with.

Bernd 12/30/2019 (Mon) 12:18:18 [Preview] No.33610 del
Apparently Turkey is sending SNA fighters to Libya, really bizarre. You would think they would at least set up a new Proxy force instead of importing one from another theatre and a theatre that is losing ground at that. I suspect that Turkey probably doesn't expect to hold Idlib, they just want the border areas already under their control.

Bernd 12/30/2019 (Mon) 12:31:56 [Preview] No.33611 del
Well Turkey is concerned about the Kurds and a Kurdis I don't think she has much against the Syrian govt. Turkbernd surely has more precise insight in this.
It does seem like the Syrian conflict is done, but Libya is still an open question. So it is more important to influence the outcome there out on the fields.

sage Bernd 12/30/2019 (Mon) 12:45:32 [Preview] No.33612 del
*Kurds and Kurdish independence,

Bernd 12/30/2019 (Mon) 19:07:57 [Preview] No.33620 del
Erdoğan needs foreign threats to keep his seat. We don't need to send soldiers to Libya every sane man knows that. It's typical "together united against the world" romanticism policy keeps him one piece and ruling.

most of the Turks doesnt concern about kurds, they concern about terrorists.

Bernd 12/30/2019 (Mon) 20:11:45 [Preview] No.33624 del
What's Erdo's justification for the intervention in Libya? Keeping Muslim brothers in power is good for Turkey?

Bernd 12/31/2019 (Tue) 00:30:14 [Preview] No.33633 del
>Syrian conflict is done
And now Erdogan needs to get rid of his Syrian proxies, so dispatching them to another warzone is a convenient disposal method.
A legalistic

Bernd 12/31/2019 (Tue) 00:32:41 [Preview] No.33634 del
excuse should be easy, as he's backing the internationally recognized government. And for Islamists, he can point to Haftar being the more secular side.

Bernd 12/31/2019 (Tue) 09:01:43 [Preview] No.33644 del
For enlarging territorial waters which will used for searching oil in medditerranean.

Of course he tries to justify this by saying Atatürk fought in there too (he was a volunteer against Italians and quite a succesfull one) but he forgets one thing. It's not our clay anymore. He also used justification that, UN recognizing that libyan guy, so it's legit. But the thing is UN recognizes Assad as sovereign ruler, so there is this one sided point of view of him.

Bernd 01/03/2020 (Fri) 03:27:50 [Preview] No.33733 del
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Press F to pay respects

Bernd 01/03/2020 (Fri) 06:19:45 [Preview] No.33734 del
What happened?

Bernd 01/03/2020 (Fri) 08:15:08 [Preview] No.33736 del
he kys'd

Bernd 01/03/2020 (Fri) 13:57:01 [Preview] No.33743 del
To think his death pumped up crypto a little bit, this must be how it feels to be a neocon

Bernd 01/03/2020 (Fri) 15:00:18 [Preview] No.33744 del
Mr Trump rocketed'd the dude while he was in Baghdad. He was some high ranking officer and apparently very liked person in Iran. Iran wants revenge. All that was done without declaration of war.

Bernd 01/03/2020 (Fri) 17:12:06 [Preview] No.33749 del
Err.. I see.

Thanks. I'll read up on it.

Bernd 01/03/2020 (Fri) 17:25:21 [Preview] No.33750 del
Basically what >>33744 said, also #WWIII is trending on twitter
Also reminder that america did a training to train soldiers for a future war against iran and lost.
Hope this turns into another vietnam

Bernd 01/03/2020 (Fri) 17:32:24 [Preview] No.33751 del
>All that was done without declaration of war.
Isn't that a given? Afaik 'state of war' in USA means just a formal recognition that they are going to increase civilian kills to the point that saying "oops" every time would be embarrassing, so don't expect them to.

Bernd 01/03/2020 (Fri) 17:40:14 [Preview] No.33752 del
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>starts a war against iran to get reelected
>posts us_fleg.jpeg

Bernd 01/03/2020 (Fri) 18:03:04 [Preview] No.33753 del
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It's hilariously stupid. At least Israel may cease to exist


Nice start for the decade

Bernd 01/03/2020 (Fri) 18:11:39 [Preview] No.33754 del
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FUCK YEAH LETS DO THIS. With love - Your friends at /pol/

Bernd 01/03/2020 (Fri) 18:52:45 [Preview] No.33755 del
>kill angry brown man to start war
>say it was greatest allies intel
>greatest ally gets attacked by angry brown country
>greatest ally turns to big orange for help
>big orange simply laughs before saying "USS Liberty, 1488D check mate"

Bernd 01/03/2020 (Fri) 18:59:33 [Preview] No.33757 del
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Bernd 01/03/2020 (Fri) 19:38:20 [Preview] No.33758 del
CNN says:
>Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said the airstrikes disrupted an "imminent attack" in the region that put American lives at risk.
What attack? Whomster against?

Bernd 01/03/2020 (Fri) 20:30:17 [Preview] No.33761 del
Haaretz says US deployed 750 soldiers in Kuwait (after an attack - by Iran-backed militias - against US embassy in Baghdad), and now they send 3000 more.

Bernd 01/03/2020 (Fri) 21:10:38 [Preview] No.33763 del

There was some attack on Iraqi/US base in region. Then counterattack of US on some bearded guys camp (Shia backed). Then protests around US embassy in Iraq after that attack.

And then this. Trump was very soft on Iran recently, so this looks like just typical show of power, like "hey guys, we are still the biggest guy in the room, don't forget about it"

Bernd 01/04/2020 (Sat) 08:19:52 [Preview] No.33767 del
Wait. Didn't the USA attacked first back in 2003 or something?

Bernd 01/04/2020 (Sat) 20:46:51 [Preview] No.33782 del
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How many d chess are these playing?
So this article says that:
- GNA is considered the legit govt. by the UN, therefor the free world, NATO, EU you name it
- GNA is supported by Turkey (since NATO takes their side it's given)
- LNA are rebels
- LNA is supported by Egypt, UAE and Russia
- the EU is establishing gas supply pipeline from Israel, via Grease and Cyprus
- Turkey supplies EU with gas from Russia via the TurkStream pipeline
- Turkey wants to establish common maritime border with Libya, he needs the GNA for this
- she does that to block the pipeline preserving the relevance of the TurkStream
This all means, that Turkey - and NATO led by the US - is supporting the enemy of a group that is supported by Russia to help Russia selling gas to EU, so they can block Israel the most important ally of the US in the region to do the same.
Which also means if the Russian backed rebels can oust the GNA then Israel, the most important ally of the US in the region, can sell gas to EU, but Russia will lose on the business.

Additional information:
- the article was written by an american
- the article was published in fuckin RT

Bernd 01/04/2020 (Sat) 22:22:46 [Preview] No.33783 del
That's why they say geopolitics is just theatre. Everything is hyper-confusing.

Bernd 01/05/2020 (Sun) 00:25:29 [Preview] No.33785 del

Bernd 01/05/2020 (Sun) 00:50:35 [Preview] No.33787 del
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is just an Islamic extremist dictator!

Bernd 01/05/2020 (Sun) 02:25:08 [Preview] No.33789 del
Erdogan's not even relevant anymore. He's just going to sit it out while other countries take sides (since Turkey is both NATO, and has somewhat of an alliance with Iran and Russia).

Bernd 01/05/2020 (Sun) 07:32:19 [Preview] No.33792 del
This reminds me the sabre rattling with North Korea. Except now elections are coming and he needs to do the most to his face be there in every home in every mind.
I don't think so this will evolve into an open conflict with Iran. At how many places US soldiers are deployed? Can they afford more fronts?
I think they withdrew forces from Syria they just need a good reason to shove them somewhere. The neighbourhood (like Iraq or Kuwait) will do fine.
Maybe he can rile up emotions, then play the peacemaker. The US dun goofed with Syria, she was taken away by Russia and Turkey (and Iran, but they are less in the media). With NK the situation is almost jovial. What big baddies are there really? China? It's an important source of consumercrap and the "trade war is going on anyway". That leaves basically Iran.

I wonder what he EU will say. Most of us are in the NATO, and the countries that matters (Germany, France and UK) were trying to make dealings with Iran, just think of this nuclear program question.

Bernd 01/05/2020 (Sun) 07:39:51 [Preview] No.33793 del
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Nothing prevents Turkey to get agreement with LNA (at least article doesn't have any argument about this).


Nothing will happen.

Bernd 01/05/2020 (Sun) 08:19:22 [Preview] No.33794 del
Except LNA isn't the politically correct side to pick.
Furthermore I assume there are other things to play, hence the 3d (4? 5? 6?) chess.

Bernd 01/05/2020 (Sun) 08:43:49 [Preview] No.33797 del
>Except LNA isn't the politically correct side to pick.

For Turkey? I don't think they care much.

Bernd 01/05/2020 (Sun) 08:46:17 [Preview] No.33798 del
They are NATO.

Bernd 01/05/2020 (Sun) 08:47:44 [Preview] No.33799 del
Also LNA is backed by Russians.
The two countries can make economical deals, but they cannot be on the same side of a military conflict, and maybe not on political sides.

Bernd 01/05/2020 (Sun) 09:06:54 [Preview] No.33800 del
Backing the GNA will push Libya into the Turkish Sphere if they win, backing the LNA won't to the same degree as they would be competing with Russia and Russia has more pull than Turkey does. They probably have other deals with the LNA as well.

Bernd 01/05/2020 (Sun) 09:07:31 [Preview] No.33801 del
I meant other deals with the GNA.

Bernd 01/05/2020 (Sun) 21:22:32 [Preview] No.33812 del
>just need a good reason to shove them somewhere. The neighbourhood...will do fine.
iraq is likely out of the question

Bernd 01/05/2020 (Sun) 21:37:32 [Preview] No.33813 del
Even with that it's not like NATO troops will leave overnight. The withdrawal can go on indefinitely.
Also this could fit into the peacemaker narrative. The US obligation of leaving might give Trump an excuse to give an empty gesture to Iran they can find acceptable without them losing face, troops return home, Trump can close the war in Iraw finally which goes on 16 17 years now. Gets reelected.

Bernd 01/05/2020 (Sun) 21:46:24 [Preview] No.33814 del
>Nothing will happen.
That's what people said before WWI.
Now this happened:

Bernd 01/05/2020 (Sun) 21:55:08 [Preview] No.33815 del
They need Saudi Arabia (a major US front) to win the war. If they go wrong in Saudi Arabia, or if they try to stay away from the conflict, then they're fucked.
They need to withdraw from Afghanistan since the quagmire over there has basically resulted in them losing. Also, the Taliban are still heavily at odds with Iran (despite officially not being at conflict, they used to be, and they personally hate the Iranians being an anti-Sunni theocracy)

Bernd 01/05/2020 (Sun) 22:03:26 [Preview] No.33819 del
Don't forget the LNA's ties to France and Israel.

Bernd 01/05/2020 (Sun) 22:24:30 [Preview] No.33820 del
Btw Saudis. What's up with Yemen now?

Tell me more.

Bernd 01/05/2020 (Sun) 22:36:08 [Preview] No.33822 del
Basically nothing. "Yemen" is just a drug wasteland now.

Bernd 01/06/2020 (Mon) 00:53:26 [Preview] No.33825 del
Israel's support is natural given the pipeline situation but it's very subtle. France's aims are harder to make out but its weapons have been found in the LNA's possession, though it's not open about it.
As neither of them like to talk about it Turks are among the biggest accusers:


Bernd 01/06/2020 (Mon) 09:14:56 [Preview] No.33832 del
(73.21 KB 500x560 iran-and-saudi.jpg)
>That's what people said before WWI.

And also that's what people said multiple times, and war didn't happen.

Compared to WWI, USA and Iran have no real points for serious conflict anyway (even when USA allies ask for this), and Iran is too strong for swift and easy takeover like Iraq was. Going into big bloody war is hard even for superpower like USA, if there is no real reason like defending own national territory. So, maybe it will end in some random strikes, maybe it will end in nothing at all. Iranians and related people, be they government sponsored or just fanatical guys, will surely do some things (like recent attack on Kenya), but probability of big long war is small. Also both sides (Iran and USA) aren't fanatical or mad, even if media paints them as such. We'll recently seen a good example of conflict between two normal countries (India vs Pakistan), when escalation suddenly stopped.

Of course I can be wrong, but predicting the future is hard task anyway.

Also, I don't recommend reading Trump's twitter at all. Or at least taking his writing seriously. It is written for specific audience, not for anyone like us.

Bernd 01/06/2020 (Mon) 16:06:10 [Preview] No.33833 del
>Compared to WWI, USA and Iran have no real points for serious conflict anyway
Right now Iran has a bunch of proxies in Iraq and in Lebanon, and the USA is blaming them for smashing up their embassy.
>too strong for swift and easy takeover
How about the Taliban? Though they aren't as strong, they were dealing with a much harsher environment and they were conquered fairly quickly and switched to insurgency.

Bernd 01/06/2020 (Mon) 16:06:41 [Preview] No.33834 del
So Iran isn't "Afghanistan on steroids". In-fact, it's less harsh than Afghanistan.

Bernd 01/06/2020 (Mon) 17:18:14 [Preview] No.33837 del
Hm. The first article isn't the freshest and not very good proofs of French support. This line is interesting tho:
>Haftar [...] Backed by the UAE, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia, and with political support from Russia and the US
Second link is kinda fresh. Also confirms that an LNA led Lybia would help Israel with the pipeline.
And both article brings the Saudis into the picture as well.

Those are good points.
>Trump's twitter
>It is written for specific audience, not for anyone like us.
Well true, and ofc we shouldn't take them seriously. But they can tell much, like that tweet earlier before Turkey started the "invasion" into Kurdish areas, and they had to pull US troops back, but allow Assad to send forces to "defend" the Kurds... Pretty gud reflection on the situation there, when everyone enveryone's enemy and ally at the same time directly or via proxies and he has to cover his and US diplomacy's ass while telling the world what's going on.

Bernd 01/06/2020 (Mon) 19:40:10 [Preview] No.33843 del
>How about the Taliban? Though they aren't as strong, they were dealing with a much harsher environment and they were conquered fairly quickly and switched to insurgency.

Taliban had no real state nor united army, it was bunch of local armies hardened in constant war, joined in some kind of confederation. And that is why in first "real" fight with proper army they failed and moved straight to insurgency phase (some of them were just bought).

Iran has army, militia, large and relatively civilized population, proper economic and state. They even have military industry, maybe not best, but it isn't last industry in the world. They couldn't be easily crushed by limited bombing and fast troop strike. Of course USA will win long conventional war, but there will be casualties from US side, much more that in first phases of Iraq or Afghanistan war. Then war will go into insurgency stage, so it will be like Afghan, but on larger scale.

Good example is Serbia. In reality Serbs weren't finished by air phase of war (even most of their tanks survived), and they surrendered only because of political reasons (they also didn't want casualties). If Serbs were more stubborn and ideologically prepared, NATO would need to start land phase, and no one in NATO really wanted it (because casualties would be much bigger). It is easy to bomb someone in remote land with 100 soldiers dead, but would modern European country accept 10000 soldier deaths, especially when they are dying for unknown purpose? That is why most of modern conflicts are done with local proxy infantry, even Turks in Syria don't use own troops freely. And Iran is much stronger than Serbia in 1999.

Who will do land invasion into Iran? Saudis are only country that may want it, but they couldn't even beat some bearded guys in Yemen. Jews from Israel are too smart for this anyway, so they wouldn't. Maybe in future, when Iran collapses under some crisis and internal turmoil it would be easier, but now they are too big to be conquered by small expedition force.

>Right now Iran has a bunch of proxies in Iraq and in Lebanon, and the USA is blaming them for smashing up their embassy.

I guess everything will be limited to bombing proxy forces (by US) and terror acts (by proxies). Iraq will suffer anyway, they are in the middle.

By the way, there are conspiracy theories already, like Iranian government desided to remove Suleimani because he is dangerous for current leadership, and used Americans help in exchange of something, like new nuclear deal that will happen after current escalation.

Bernd 01/06/2020 (Mon) 20:14:16 [Preview] No.33844 del
I don't think USA could win a war. They still haven't really won nor in Afghanistan neither in Iraq don't matter what they say. Iran would be another mire to be bogged down.
>conspiracy theories already, like Iranian government desided to remove Suleimani
I think the CIA has the next guy in line in their pocket. And now that guy is already in place.
There is also an opinion (I think from Israeli viewpoint) that Suleimani was an idiot that the US did a favor to Iran to remove him.
How Russian of you to misspell it.

Bernd 01/06/2020 (Mon) 20:58:42 [Preview] No.33846 del
>I don't think USA could win a war

It also hard to really understand what will be considered a "win" in Afghanistan. Crush local forces and technically occupy country? They did it quickly. Install new government? This also happened. Stop the fighting between Taliban-like structures and that new government? This requires a good genocide, it couldn't be made in modern times. USA may install Taliban as new government, and they'll do that genocide though, but looks like that option is still unavailable for some reason.

So, there is no real goal now. Although I don't know what was their goal from the start, and I guess they don't know either.

>How Russian of you to misspell it.

English is hard. Why they need two different letters for one sound?

Bernd 01/06/2020 (Mon) 21:41:36 [Preview] No.33847 del
>It also hard to really understand what will be considered a "win"
>So, there is no real goal now.
Yeah, that's that. Even back in Vietnam there wasn't a real goal (that could have been presented to the people and accepted by them) fighting no real enemy (since American troops couldn't enter the north and conquer it) on nonexistent fronts (which actually were everywhere).
And this situation now smells the same, if they try to hold the foothold in Iraq, they'll fight Iranian backed proxy forces, but they can't enter Iran and defeat them properly, so it can go on and on, even through generations.

>Why they need two different letters for one sound?
Yeah, they do that all the time. Such silliness.

Bernd 01/06/2020 (Mon) 22:35:23 [Preview] No.33849 del
>Taliban had no real state nor united army, it was bunch of local armies hardened in constant war, joined in some kind of confederation
The Taliban was a unified army under a leader (Mullah Omar) that had the full support of much of the Pashtun population that it led, and controlled and had a central government in Kabul in which most people there had to swear an oath to a leader, which is very important in Afghanistan. The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan was de-facto a state, it was only unrecognised, and even then, it still had support from Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.

Bernd 01/07/2020 (Tue) 02:44:35 [Preview] No.33852 del
They were also in a state of civil war against the Northern Alliance before the US even got involved.

Bernd 01/07/2020 (Tue) 08:37:06 [Preview] No.33857 del
(3.94 MB 720x580 gondola-afgan.webm)
>The Taliban was a unified army under a leader (Mullah Omar) that had the full support of much of the Pashtun population that it led, and controlled and had a central government in Kabul in which most people there had to swear an oath to a leader, which is very important in Afghanistan.

But then many of local commanders (technically still warlords) joined Northern Alliance in Mazari-Sharif for example, and I guess many more just defected or changed sides in conflict.

This is Asian thing though, when people are loyal to another people, not to some abstract thing like country or nation (also that is why killing Suleimani matters - he was powerful men with skill, contacts and chain of command). Iraq quickly collapsed in second war by this scenario too, general just switched sides or quit, and many of Iraqi army units didn't even fight.

It is hard to say, could this be happen in Iran or not. Considering their history and state of the country, they must be less prone to these things, but who knows.

Bernd 01/08/2020 (Wed) 00:38:55 [Preview] No.33873 del
>No Danish soldiers injured: Danish Armed Forces
Okay, it's confirmed Iran is now launching ballistic missiles into NATO bases in Iraq. The US is definitely going to respond to this.

Bernd 01/08/2020 (Wed) 01:39:02 [Preview] No.33874 del
Now British Airways BA134, coming from India to London has stopped near Kuwait.

Bernd 01/08/2020 (Wed) 01:53:48 [Preview] No.33876 del
that sounds exaggerated. another tweet claiming 30 casualties? i feel like if any of those two were true, iran would be glass right now.

Bernd 01/08/2020 (Wed) 01:59:57 [Preview] No.33877 del
I think they mean Type 313 missiles.

Bernd 01/08/2020 (Wed) 02:19:13 [Preview] No.33878 del
Yes, it was type 313 missiles. The actual damage (on the Al-Asad airbase) didn't seem to be so big, seeing a video of it, though I'm sure there were a few US casualties.

Bernd 01/08/2020 (Wed) 03:26:33 [Preview] No.33880 del
Possibly, but then the missiles would have been picked up and they would know they are coming, I am not sure of the details of the base but it could be that the US portion had bunkers that the US troops could use to wait out such an attack and maybe the Iraqis didn't(or were not told and had less time to prepare).

Bernd 01/08/2020 (Wed) 06:44:05 [Preview] No.33885 del
>>No Danish soldiers injured: Danish Armed Forces
Reminded me: "during the filming of this movie no animals were harmed", kek

Yeah a comment below says so, Fateh-313.

I'm reading in the news, that two sites were attacked, one is Erbil in the north where international contingent is stationed, Hungarians too (about 200). Two rockets "reached" the target: one was a near miss, but it was dead anyway so no explosion, the other misses by 33 kms.
There were warnings so both here and at al-Assad soldiers could retreat to their panic-rooms.
US claims no casualties.
Iran says this was a self-defense action, international/UN law allows it, it's no act of war.

I think they spent the last days searching for some loophole so they can do something but not really do something so they don't lose face, and what they can sell to their own citizens.

Bernd 01/08/2020 (Wed) 07:09:28 [Preview] No.33886 del
>I think they spent the last days searching for some loophole so they can do something but not really do something so they don't lose face, and what they can sell to their own citizens.

Yes, you would think the US rhetoric to such an attack would be quite aggressive but Trump was actually quite calm about it and it looks like the situation has died right down with not a single US or Iranian soldier being lost. >>33843 may be closer to the truth than one would have first thought(not that I actually am wholly convinced).

Bernd 01/08/2020 (Wed) 17:22:13 [Preview] No.33889 del
>. >>33843 may be closer to the truth than one would have first thought
Way too many times I can agree with his point. He is a scholar and a gentleman. But don't tell him this tho.
To be honest I frequently feel I'm the stupidest around here, I'm just the most "social" I think.

Bernd 01/08/2020 (Wed) 20:36:28 [Preview] No.33893 del
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CNN now talks about deescalation and backing down n shiet.
On Reuters I read Trump talked about Iran standing down since no Americans were harmed in the missile strikes. Aljazeera says the same, also regional and world leaders called for deescalation. Oh all of them mentions new sanctions.
>Iran’s television said over 80 U.S. forces have been reportedly killed in the missile strikes, citing a source close to the IRGC.

In Iraq early elections are coming, they'll have - if everything goes in order - a new govt in the next two weeks. And then they hope to expel foreign troops and restore independence.

I don't like this map. I assumes that the missiles will be launched from the center of Iran.

Bernd 01/09/2020 (Thu) 06:52:11 [Preview] No.33896 del
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What happened with the Ukro airplane over Iran? I put this link here for later read.
Anyway this explosive situation seems to be dying down. Another article says the assassination of Suleimani helps the Iraninan govt. stop losing popularity and restore inner stability.

Meanwhile in Syria changed little. Some ISIS activity near Deir ez-Zor.

Bernd 01/09/2020 (Thu) 13:26:37 [Preview] No.33897 del
What if it was an inside job, or if the death was intentionally faked to create a strong Iran for a potential war?

Bernd 01/09/2020 (Thu) 18:03:36 [Preview] No.33914 del
>What happened with the Ukro airplane over Iran?
Probably trigger-happy Iranian AA.

Bernd 01/09/2020 (Thu) 21:14:32 [Preview] No.33921 del

Yes, that is one theory, although it is strange. It is possible when you have lonely aircraft suddenly appearing in some air defense region, but there is a route where many planes fly every day. Air defense crew always see this on radar, yet at that night they mistake civilian plane for enemy target? Although this is a possible situation. It isn't comparable with MH17 for many reasons.

If that happened, Iran is in bad condition. They already lost many people just at funeral of Suleimani, now they shoot civilian plane. Maybe USA just need to wait.

Another theory, widely circulated in media, is engine failure. Boeing of same type had fan blade failure resulting in one dead passenger (blade penetrated hull) some time ago. This is pretty bad thing, because engine must be protected from this, as regulations stay (engine hull must contain any broken fan blade). Technically it isn't Boeing fail (engine is made by French), but it is Boeing task to control this.


And story about 737 MAX is still going, so Boeing surely doesn't want another reputation hit, and will try to blame everything to move investigation into other side.

Bernd 01/09/2020 (Thu) 23:40:57 [Preview] No.33929 del
>What happened with the Ukro airplane over Iran?
Trump said, sic, "it was flying over pretty rough neighborhood", so I'll believe him.

In NWO we don't do silly things like declare wars (=asking for it), we just know that some states are run by democrats (Detroit, Iran, all these kinds of antifa-terrorist-etc enclaves), and those kinds of rough neighborhoods may result in planes getting shot down.

Bernd 01/10/2020 (Fri) 06:28:21 [Preview] No.33939 del
>it was flying over pretty rough neighborhood
Aint't that the truth?

Bernd 01/10/2020 (Fri) 21:55:05 [Preview] No.33954 del
>it is strange
>there is a route where many planes fly every day. Air defense crew always see this on radar,
Also it was on outbound course from Iron to Ukraine, and not inbound:
Funny line:
>Ukraine is looking at various possible causes of the crash, including an attack by a Russian-made missile
Putin personally shot down the airplane.
More fun:
>Tehran said earlier that it may ask Russia, Canada, France or Ukraine for help in a probe that could take one or two years to complete.
Iran might wanna manipulate data if really they downed it.
France might wanna manipulate data if the engine was faulty.
Ukraine might wanna manipulate data to blame Russia for the missiles.
Russia might wanna manipulate data to cover up their fault due missiles.
Canada... well Trudeau blames Iran, saying they downed the craft, but do they have any motivation for data tampering?

Bernd 01/17/2020 (Fri) 21:47:15 [Preview] No.34100 del
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Rebels advanced over some villages.

Bernd 01/18/2020 (Sat) 08:14:48 [Preview] No.34106 del
I guess their closer goal is Marrat al-Newman and the M5 road there.
Where can I find that map you use sometimes, like here >>33302 ? It has physical layer which offers more info in itself.

Bernd 01/20/2020 (Mon) 19:06:13 [Preview] No.34157 del
>Where can I find that map you use sometimes
Those are periodically made by mapmakers.

Bernd 01/21/2020 (Tue) 06:31:51 [Preview] No.34168 del
Oh yeah, I followed the watermark to muraselon.com

Bernd 01/23/2020 (Thu) 19:13:00 [Preview] No.34217 del
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Hmm. Activities shifted to the north in Idlib area. It mostly just shelling and bombing no engagements.

Bernd 01/23/2020 (Thu) 19:34:53 [Preview] No.34218 del
Erdogan is a lot more sensitive about the north, he would veto any offensive there. West of the M5 there are sometimes skirmishes in Latakia and the Ghab plain but those places are locked in attrition warfare, understandably for Latakia as it's rough terrain but not for the plain.

Bernd 01/23/2020 (Thu) 20:49:55 [Preview] No.34222 del
Now that I saw a physical map (openstreetmap) it seems the most open way to Idlib is straight from the east. Lucky for the SAA. I wonder what kind of resistance is there about, fortifications, units.
Made me think if google taking sat images there and if the war left recognizable imprint on the landscape.

Bernd 01/24/2020 (Fri) 19:25:59 [Preview] No.34235 del
And suddenly red dots everywhere with neat little bombs on them.
Judging by those two green Kalashnikovs (they say rebels stopped advancing, infiltrating SAA troops) about those two depressions in the front the govt. forces started a new offensive.

Bernd 01/24/2020 (Fri) 19:30:54 [Preview] No.34236 del
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Bernd 01/26/2020 (Sun) 02:45:27 [Preview] No.34253 del
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Knock knock.

Bernd 01/26/2020 (Sun) 07:21:39 [Preview] No.34254 del
Who's there?

Bernd 01/26/2020 (Sun) 21:54:12 [Preview] No.34281 del
(601.97 KB 1189x786 idlib 26 jan 2020.png)
Rebels counterattacked the army's spearhead pointed at Maraat al-Numan to no avail and have now lost the city's northern flank and highway connection. There's more activity elsewhere, a lot of loyalist casualties in Aleppo, a car bomb in Azaz and Turkish shelling of yellow territory.

Bernd 01/27/2020 (Mon) 06:45:48 [Preview] No.34283 del
Last news from 7 hours ago. Situation seems to be the same.
I wonder how precise this map is. I tried reading news (syrianews, aljazeera, reuters) but they report only very vaguely. No settlement names at all, or just the most important (Ma’rat al-Numan).

Bernd 01/27/2020 (Mon) 21:05:39 [Preview] No.34303 del
(422.54 KB 1189x752 idlib 27 jan 2020.png)
SAA is going all out on the highway.
>I wonder how precise this map is
It just compiles information from a number of sources and displays it cartographically. Back in the day a source would report a territorial change and another source from the opposing side would say "no, the attack was pushed back" or "we lost the village but counterattacked and regained it". But it's been long since I last heard contradicting information like that.

Bernd 01/28/2020 (Tue) 06:31:00 [Preview] No.34305 del
I see.
The offensives are one sided too now, maybe there are no important changes happens on that level to worth noting it. Or maybe those who could make corrections in the media, journalists, are way less in numbers in the rebel camp now that the situation is getting really dangerous.
They report on the condemnation by the US govt. of this attack. This isn't in the headlines of the front pages of news sites, so I guess it isn't a big thing. How often the US govt does such thing? Is it a routine? "While we cannot do about it anything we have to condemn the Assad regime." Or maybe this happened now because of the tension with Iran?

Bernd 01/28/2020 (Tue) 18:01:16 [Preview] No.34321 del
They are in. Also made advancement at Aleppo.

Bernd 01/30/2020 (Thu) 12:36:31 [Preview] No.34365 del
SAA still has momentum and rides down the highway to Saraqib. Makes sense as the terrain is unfavorable to the west. Aleppo was a lot harder, the rebels even briefly advanced there.

Bernd 01/30/2020 (Thu) 12:40:46 [Preview] No.34366 del
>Ramuse Artillery base
>1070 apartments
Familiar names.
In other news HTS installed communications equipment over the central hospital in Idlib, which ceased operations in response.

Bernd 01/30/2020 (Thu) 18:50:48 [Preview] No.34377 del
I imagine in he south the SAA had the main task force, where they could hope for the least resistance and a more favourable avenue. Maybe they also got lucky and punched a hole at the M5.

Bernd 01/31/2020 (Fri) 11:39:02 [Preview] No.34394 del
(562.61 KB 1188x750 idlib 31 jan 2020.png)
Arbiter Erdogan sounds his whistle.

Bernd 02/15/2020 (Sat) 18:53:02 [Preview] No.34403 del
Shelling and bombing is getting prepared the opposition for a renewed attack.

Bernd 02/16/2020 (Sun) 00:40:07 [Preview] No.34414 del
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You got the direction right, north of Aleppo. But they're moving west of the actual road in a pincer movement. The northern flanks is moving from YPG territory and sources clash on YPG proper partaking in the fighting.
Meanwhile repair work is ongoing in the M5.

Bernd 02/16/2020 (Sun) 06:53:50 [Preview] No.34418 del
So many happenings have happened while the site was down... Sad.

I really wonder what Erdogan will do, it's getting to the point where a confrontation is inevitable. Either the Turks are going to leave or they are going to have to do something.

Bernd 02/16/2020 (Sun) 09:04:49 [Preview] No.34422 del
Well, they will try and cut off that corner.
YPG participating would gain them some goodwill at minimum. I dunno what was the Kurds situation in Syria before the war, but they can be important elements of rebuilding the country after the war.

Yes. We were at sportschan during downtime: https://sportschan.wrigel.xyz/kc
We had some discussions there.
I think Erdo will posture like a cock (the bird, not the penis) until the new lines, "security zones" are getting made. They continue to send war materials to the rebels, and try avoiding more Turkish soldiers killed. So they'll do something without actually doing anything.

Bernd 02/16/2020 (Sun) 16:43:38 [Preview] No.34430 del
Rebels giving up that corner. Wonder at what line the front will solidify.

Bernd 02/16/2020 (Sun) 17:23:06 [Preview] No.34432 del
Not much in the northern pincer. Maybe it's just a distraction attack, rebels are better entrenched in the older frontline or YPG, a poorly armed force, is indeed participating. At the national level SDF have lengthy serious discussions with the government about reconciliation but they've never gone anywhere due to mutual stubbornness and American obstruction. The many groups in the SDF have different opinions, those closer to Turkey are friendlier to Assad while Arabs, particularly old FSA groups, refuse a deal. What happens is concrete cooperation at the local level and Afrin is a particularly close example, the local YPG were the only non-hostile border in the Nubl&Zahraa pocket and local NDF later repaid the favor helping out during Olive Branch. Or the YPG along the border in general, which invited the army to protect them from the most recent Turkish invasion.

Bernd 02/16/2020 (Sun) 18:23:38 [Preview] No.34434 del
I reckon the danger of an encirclement and being cut off might have been enough to decide to empty out the area.

Bernd 02/17/2020 (Mon) 19:09:26 [Preview] No.34452 del
Straightening out the front.

Bernd 02/17/2020 (Mon) 23:20:42 [Preview] No.34465 del
Yellow skull is a report of SDF casualties, maybe they really were participating but kept a low profile. The road from Aleppo to Menagh airbase is open. Flights to Damascus and Cairo will soon resume from Aleppo. From what it seems this operation should go on for a while.

Bernd 02/18/2020 (Tue) 06:25:21 [Preview] No.34466 del
It seems they have the momentum.
From the shelling, which renewed around Idlib again, they might just push further, and no security zone will be established.

Bernd 02/19/2020 (Wed) 00:38:23 [Preview] No.34491 del
Nothing for today, it seems.

Bernd 02/19/2020 (Wed) 01:38:11 [Preview] No.34493 del
Maybe, it will be interesting to see what happens when they reach the border area. They are going to be have fire control over the roads leading into Syria but also Turkey may decide that they will just shell the Syrians from within Turkey itself if they get that close, making it hard to respond(but then I guess they have been shelling them any way and it hasn't done much to stop them).

Bernd 02/19/2020 (Wed) 06:27:22 [Preview] No.34495 del
The shelling is getting stopped. Right now I suspect they will really create that security zone in the end.
Oh well, every fun has to end sometimes, even butchering each other.

Bernd 02/19/2020 (Wed) 18:51:23 [Preview] No.34500 del
I have to correct myself. They probably still want that piece of road south of Idlib (M4?).

Bernd 02/19/2020 (Wed) 19:32:31 [Preview] No.34501 del
There are reports of reinforcements moving precisely into that direction, towards Saraqib which is at the M4/M5 junction. The next target would then be Arihah.

Bernd 02/20/2020 (Thu) 16:12:17 [Preview] No.34512 del
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Bernd 02/20/2020 (Thu) 16:33:40 [Preview] No.34514 del
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Were you missed the turn and ended up in Syria?
>not pine air freshener

Bernd 02/20/2020 (Thu) 16:34:32 [Preview] No.34515 del
I mean, did you miss ofc.

Bernd 02/20/2020 (Thu) 20:47:08 [Preview] No.34521 del
I think it's just part of the sabre rattling, for the show that Erdogan is very serious. I doubt real conflict will arise. But if WWIII breaks out, what can we do?

Bernd 02/20/2020 (Thu) 20:50:46 [Preview] No.34522 del
>Were you missed the turn and ended up in Syria?

I ask myself same question when I see local roads.

>not pine air freshener

Not a boring common pine, but majestic grape!

Also, I don't like hanging things, but have a guard dog.

Bernd 02/20/2020 (Thu) 22:21:42 [Preview] No.34527 del
Busy day in Neyrab. Loyalists attacked. To great fanfare and announcements of a grand offensive towards the encircled observation posts, rebels counterattacked with massive Turkish support. Russia called Erdogan's bluff and just leveled them off with airstrikes, allowing loyalists to countercounterattack. They're back in control of the city.
Meanwhile evidence of Turkish weapons in HTS hands continues to surface.

Bernd 02/21/2020 (Fri) 16:33:20 [Preview] No.34539 del
That machine gunner in the second with at 0:15. Looks liek an American neckbeard basement dweller.

Some bombing along M4.

Bernd 02/21/2020 (Fri) 20:03:39 [Preview] No.34541 del
Macron and Merkel made a symbolic gesture to fulfill their obligations.

Bernd 02/23/2020 (Sun) 00:10:26 [Preview] No.34569 del
The three plus Erdogan will meet on the 5th of March to discuss the crisis. Meanwhile Assad prepares to attack the M4 and show his superiority on the ground. If Russia makes any move towards a truce Syria can place pressure by striking further on the ground. This took place earlier in the offensive, when Assad was told to slow down but continued to escalate, and in the end Russia stayed on his side and continued to provide air support.

Bernd 02/23/2020 (Sun) 09:03:57 [Preview] No.34583 del
Aah, I see. So Russia is committed herself too much as well. They can't do much else just "escape forward" on the side of Assad if he decides to take things further than comfortable.

Bernd 02/23/2020 (Sun) 10:01:08 [Preview] No.34585 del
Looks like Turkey has been harassing the northern areas a bit more than normal. Who knows what they plan on doing up there, probably not all that much though.

Bernd 02/23/2020 (Sun) 20:33:15 [Preview] No.34599 del
Since they created that security zone there's always some activity about.
Now that the campaign started in it's earnest at Idlib, this activity became more serious. There should be SAA forces around that blue and not SDF I believe so it's maybe for engaging those units. There's some shelling in Afrin region too, what left on "Kurdish" hand.

Bernd 02/23/2020 (Sun) 22:49:55 [Preview] No.34601 del
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First villages begin to fall. Instead of an encirclement movement SAA is attacking the south.

The frequency of artillery strikes rose a bit but the skirmishes are the same. Elsewhere ISIS has gotten stronger in SDF territory since the Turkish invasion as forces had to be diverted to the border.

Bernd 02/23/2020 (Sun) 22:50:19 [Preview] No.34602 del
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haha Banin :DDDDD

Bernd 02/24/2020 (Mon) 17:22:50 [Preview] No.34626 del
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It began.

Bernd 02/25/2020 (Tue) 12:35:41 [Preview] No.34641 del
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SAA punches through the southern frontlines and approaches the largest nearby target, Kafranbel. To the north rebels advanced towards Nayrab and came under bombing, with the city's control unclear.

Bernd 02/25/2020 (Tue) 23:40:58 [Preview] No.34659 del
Looks like rebels are still in Nayrab. No wonder they're obsessed with that front, it's very close to Idlib city and allows an attack on Saraqib which, if successful, would deny both the M4 and M5 to the regime. But it's doubtful if they can hold it for long. Meanwhile they're facing great losses in the south with Kafranbel falling. It used to be famous for its demonstrations with political cartoons and English-language banners.

Bernd 02/26/2020 (Wed) 06:46:27 [Preview] No.34663 del
SAA still has a long way to go from the south.
It's so obvious those were drawn for them.

Bernd 02/26/2020 (Wed) 19:11:39 [Preview] No.34672 del
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Govt. had some gains, as expected.

Bernd 02/26/2020 (Wed) 21:31:41 [Preview] No.34675 del
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Rebels have finally managed to advance and have possibly cut off the M5.

Bernd 02/27/2020 (Thu) 06:14:51 [Preview] No.34677 del
Nice turn of events. Very one sided action up until now.

Bernd 02/27/2020 (Thu) 14:22:58 [Preview] No.34679 del
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Big news, Saraqib just fell.

Bernd 02/27/2020 (Thu) 16:44:29 [Preview] No.34681 del
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Judging by the quick movement of the SAA in the south, the rebels pulled out everyone they could from that area, leaving token forces there, just enough to make a little resistance. Not ten days earlier they shortened their lines in the north. This meant they could regroup units about Idlib, and with the Turkish reinforcement and supplies they were able to execute this push, maybe with a local numerical superiority, since the opposing forces were concentrated elsewhere.
Most likely their swan song.

Meanwhile corona is arriving to the scene. A destroyed country with weakened population, where the situation is already a humanitarian catastrophe, prime target.

Bernd 02/27/2020 (Thu) 20:38:14 [Preview] No.34685 del
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I'm informing meself a little of Syrian history to get some context on Syria's place in the world and it's internal politics. I didn't know she had "personal union" with Egypt for three years when the two countries formed a common republic and Nasser was the president.
I'm using the Contemporary Archive of the Islamic World, Volume 1, Syria 1975/76-2018 (Edited by Anthony Axon and Susan Hewitt, Brill, 2019), just running through the timeline for now. I wonder why the book starts at 1975/76. Hafez al-Assad came to power five years earlier, and the ruling Ba'ath Party seized control in '63. Was their occupation of Lebanon so important? Maybe the reason for the starting date is in the Preface or something.

So basically Syria became independent in 1945-46, since then it had several conflicts with Israel, as a member of the Arab League, along Egypt, on the apropos of the Golan Heights, and in Lebanon. Also a usual opponent of Iraq and a natural ally of Iran. The timeline doesn't mentions Turkey only for her role she played by allowing the formation of an Syrian opposition faction in Istanbul. Since 2002 Syria is massaged by the US, accusing her with supporting terrorists and acquiring weapons of mass destruction.
I really have to squint into the book to tell something about the internal affairs. It looks like they have a de facto one party system with the Socialist Ba'ath Party controlling the politics, they helped Bashar, the son of Hafez into power too. Apparently a quite large number of residents doesn't/didn't have citizenship, Kurds, who form about 15% of the population got citizenship only recently. Some religious softening is also going on, niqab was banned, in favor of hijab.
During the Arab Spring the same went down as in Lybia: while civilian unrest was going on (I assume also fueled by foreign powers), and troops switched sides to help rebels, foreign powers demanded Assad to be more lenient toward them and stop suppressing them, stop fighting. Assad did better than Gaddafi.

Also Hafez al-Assad had big heda.

Bernd 02/28/2020 (Fri) 01:46:44 [Preview] No.34691 del
Being as important as Idlib is they were always going to be strongest near to it and any pulling of forces from the front in that area was likely to have that result. One would think they would be aware of that but they must have deemed the trade off to be worth it.

Bernd 02/28/2020 (Fri) 06:36:05 [Preview] No.34693 del
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Yeah, you're right. They should have expected it, they either rejected the idea of a counterattack or they judged the result as good trade off and/or temporary.

Meanwhile many eye catching happening all around. US convoy intercepted at the Turkish border in the north east, Israeli helicopter attack in the south west, extensive Turkish shelling, not only at the Idlib front and SE of Afrin, but as far as Hama and close to Latakia (at an airport). Reaching social media from Turkey was restricted for a while as well.
Yesterday there was a discussion about Syria in UN security council.
Events following each other thicker and thicker. I still believe the conflict won't be renewed, local base is too small and limited into specific areas. While Turkey and Russia is now really involved, and they are one step away from an actual war (as long as Turkish and Russian soldiers doesn't shoot at each other with handguns they won't deem it as an open conflict), they won't risk their political and economical ties, I'm almost sure. Maybe the US could push toward it somehow if she would want it and maybe the election can force them to, but that would mean an even bigger war, it would step over local scale.

Bernd 02/28/2020 (Fri) 14:57:02 [Preview] No.34704 del
I've read some on that in the Internet, never had the idea of reading on a book. Also researched the first years of the war, which are hard to get information on, and analytical essays on how the regime maintains its power. They mostly have an anti-regime bias.
For example: https://tcf.org/content/report/assads-broken-base-case-idlib/?agreed=1
Assad relies on a network of local protégés on every city, and in areas lost to the rebels this network has been uprooted, making it harder to reestablish authority as they are reconquered.
Assad still has more brute force than his militias but has to balance his need for their military power with their side-effects such as popularity loss; occasionally this means disbanding and suppresing militias.
The wealth of a loyalist oligarch had to be cannibalized to pay debts to Russia.
Lengthy multi-part writing on reconstruction, oligarchs, militias, welfare, polarization and so on.

>I wonder why the book starts at 1975/76. Hafez al-Assad came to power five years earlier, and the ruling Ba'ath Party seized control in '63. Was their occupation of Lebanon so important? Maybe the reason for the starting date is in the Preface or something.
Lebanon is a very complicated subject, even more than Syria. Alliances changed all the time, at one point Hafez and Israel were in the same camp. I haven't delved into it, it's a headache to try to understand.
>Since 2002 Syria is massaged by the US, accusing her with supporting terrorists
For a time during the Iraq War Bashar was complacent to Iraqi insurgents across the border.
>while civilian unrest was going on
You might look into the roots of unrest in the hinterland. Rural areas in particular were in a poor condition in 2011. There was decades-old environmental degradation in the steppe, which was opened to massive herds instead of just what the Bedouins had. Bashar conducted needed reforms, cutting subsidies and moving to cash crops, but in the short term this made farmers suffer. And since 2006 there was drought. Climate has effects on the war itself, sandstorms are good for ISIS and the like as they eliminate other side's air cover and this was particularly damaging for besieged airbases. The war itself helps cause sandstorms as it leads to less land being cultivated and cared for.

I guess Erdogan is engaging in brinkmanship and will keep adding fuel to the fire until he can negotiate a ceasefire with Russia and the West. His decision to open the Greek border to let refugees enter Europe is another way to put pressure.

Bernd 02/28/2020 (Fri) 18:01:06 [Preview] No.34707 del
Quite a lot of book about Syria on libgen as fresh as the one I mentioned, and now I see one published this year. They explore many aspects of the situation. The Arab Spring, the society falling apart, minorities, refugees, the proxy nature of the war, factions, international relations, the use of media, etc, etc.
Thanks for the links, maybe I can find the time to skim them through.
Yeah, as I browsed the books, I checked couple of publishers and it is very likely most has anti-regime bias. Especially from the early stages of the war when Assad position was fickle.

From the little I read so far it seems economically Syria had the chance, but somehow they always fall back. Besides they struggle with constant corruption. But will see in a little bit more detail.

Bernd 02/28/2020 (Fri) 20:31:37 [Preview] No.34708 del
So. The book says in the '70s an annual journal was launched under the name of Middle East Review:
This volume re-publishes the Middle East Review’s annual appraisals of Syria, its politics and economy. In terms of news coverage and analysis for much of the period covered here, Syria was an exceptional case. Coverage of the country in international media was at best negligible, often non-existent. The al-Assad regimes did not welcome journalistic probing. Not many journalists were given visas to visit Damascus, even less to make their way to those cities well-known to be hostile to the al-Assad administrations.

Bernd 02/29/2020 (Sat) 15:13:01 [Preview] No.34724 del
Assad won get over it.

Bernd 02/29/2020 (Sat) 17:06:00 [Preview] No.34726 del
Lies! ISIS still can win.

Bernd 03/01/2020 (Sun) 09:22:02 [Preview] No.34730 del
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Lots of news rebels gaining the upper hand now.

Bernd 03/01/2020 (Sun) 15:54:59 [Preview] No.34733 del
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Reconciled rebels are rising up in the south. Syria shot down a Turkish drone and Turkey downed two Syrian jets and several AA systems in response.

Bernd 03/01/2020 (Sun) 18:44:47 [Preview] No.34735 del
The question is how much the govt managed to pacify the south. It also made me think how much of that southern movements were organized from the outside. Did they get foreign help, or have they managed to pull this out themselves? How much weapon caches left undiscovered. How reliable and committed are those insurgents there. Was a low key guerrilla warfare went on which didn't reach the media?
But every bit helps. I'm really not looking forward to the continuation of the war, but these surprises makes the thing educational.

Bernd 03/02/2020 (Mon) 00:46:58 [Preview] No.34743 del
They have already shot down 2 more(and possibly a third but the owner of that one is not known yet). We will have to wait and see what Russia does.

Well Jordan was never a friend of Syria so they may have provided aid or allowed aid to pass through Jordan. It's quite a coincidence that the uprising took place on the same day that Turkey's operation Spring Shield has started though.

Bernd 03/02/2020 (Mon) 17:05:48 [Preview] No.34751 del
Saraqib changed hands again.

Bernd 03/03/2020 (Tue) 01:48:08 [Preview] No.34775 del
Ehh, I was wrong about the 2 further planes, there are so many reports going around with rebels claiming to have shot down planes but it turns out they were Turkish drones shot down by Syrians.

Bernd 03/03/2020 (Tue) 01:59:40 [Preview] No.34776 del
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Tables are turning again, Erdogan has made sure the final chapters of the war are not a placid mopping up but an electrifying experience full of plot twists. Rebels were already breaching the gates of Kafranbel when an army counterattack contained their breach from the west. And despite news of massive losses from bombed convoys, Tiger forces massed in the M5 again and retook Saraqib. It took some time, rebels released videos from inside the city whilst pro-regime sources were already declaring it taken and the city was probably divided for a while but already taken by now. A Turkish drone was seen in the background as Syrian TV broadcasted from Saraqib. Some sources give the whole M5 as cleared while the live map still shows it cut to the north. Suheil himself was photographed in the city and Russian MP arrived, making it now off-limits to Erdogan.

So trying to make sense of this:
Erdogan has no long-term thinking for Syria, he's just bumbling from one crisis to another and improvising as he goes. When the army's offensive curbstomped the rebels, he panicked and tried to salvage the situation with his observation posts and materiel deliveries to the rebels. It was laughably ineffective and caused an escalation, but now he does seem to be following a logic. When the posts inevitably caused casualties, he chose to keep escalating. Soon he was taking dozens of casualties and bombing Syria en masse with drones and artillery. This had the practical effect of threatening the Syrian army's helicopter and bomber support and dramatically raising its attrition, with large losses of men and vehicles including tanks. In this new environment rebels managed to counterattack and as the army shuffled men across fronts several convoys were hit. Erdogan's endgame right now is to raise the temperature so much Idlib becomes an international crisis, bringing great powers to negotiate a truce. This will give at least a few more months of life for rebels in Idlib. He'll meet Putin in Moscow soon. Another arm of his strategy is his opening of the border with Europe for Syrian refugees, which puts pressure on Merkel and Macron to take a stand and hopefully back a ceasefire.
With the prospect of a ceasefire, both sides try to assert themselves on the ground as fast as possible. Assad went for Saraqib as the most valuable target and its takeover demonstrates that, in face of Turkish bombing he has the manpower and the willingness to sacrifice it, and most importantly, that despite this higher attrition the rebels are still an inferior fighting force and will fold wherever Tiger Forces and other elite troops are concentrated and Russian airstrikes fall. Putin is still giving his support, but notably hasn't raised it to compensate Erdogan's, refusing an expansion of his mission in Syria. It seems he only intervened to get a cheap victory, and is reluctant to take a bigger commitment. Erdogan may have found his weak spot. Furthermore, Turkey matters to Russia a lot more than Assad's takeover of Idlib. Russia doesn't even need Idlib, it already has Assad solidly in power and bases in the coast. A weaker Assad is in fact a more loyal ally.

>The question is how much the govt managed to pacify the south.
The population was against him in the first place and largely remains so. Reconciliation with rebels requires trust, which is in short supply in the dire wartime conditions; a few of the reconciled still found themselves arrested and tortured. In a former warzone a lot of civilians already had firearms and in some cases reconciled rebels kept theirs. The regime's client networks will take a long time to restore. However, rebellious thoughts were kept at bay by a general feeling that the regime had won and was strong. Recent battlefield defeats did away with this feeling so the angriest rebels thought they had a shot.

Bernd 03/03/2020 (Tue) 02:26:06 [Preview] No.34777 del
neocons were right
it's better to have USA world police than this chaotic shit every day

Bernd 03/03/2020 (Tue) 02:34:14 [Preview] No.34778 del
That didn't really work in Libya though did it.

Bernd 03/03/2020 (Tue) 02:39:25 [Preview] No.34780 del
Lybia was a French operation and it was after the Georgian war where Americans gave up their monopoly of regime change.

Bernd 03/03/2020 (Tue) 02:59:00 [Preview] No.34781 del
Another important factor: it seems Turkey diminished its bombing operations now.

Bernd 03/03/2020 (Tue) 09:37:11 [Preview] No.34788 del
The government has control over the M5 again and is consolidating it's position along it. Another plane shot down in the south of Idlib as well as some minor Syrian gains in that area.

Yes, seems to be so. Another convoy was sent into Syria so they are still increasing their presence but it looks like Operation Spring Shield may fall through.

Bernd 03/03/2020 (Tue) 09:51:52 [Preview] No.34790 del
>Erdogan has no long-term thinking for Syria, he's just bumbling from one crisis to another and improvising as he goes.

Yes, it looks like it's going to backfire on him too. If the situation remains as it is and the Syrians regain the momentum then it is worse for him than had he never launched Spring Shield. At least before that he could bargain with Russia over the threat of a military intervention, now he has shown his hand and shown it to be a poor one.

Bernd 03/04/2020 (Wed) 06:34:38 [Preview] No.34810 del
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Kek. On the livemap they follow flightradar to pinpoint UAVs, and probably other military aviation can be followed. Like the one I witnessed I already posted about.

Forgot to read this >>34776

Bernd 03/04/2020 (Wed) 12:25:55 [Preview] No.34814 del

Bernd 03/04/2020 (Wed) 22:03:34 [Preview] No.34826 del
Reports of Turkish bombing in Saraqib and Russian MP leaving, but hours later pro-regime sources showed the Russians were still there. Rebels attacked but were pushed back, this time Tiger Forces are defending. Denied reports of Suheil being injured. Loyalists try to push towards Afes just north of Saraqib, while rebels attacked far up north near YPG territory. A Syrian Su-22 evaded a Turkish missile.

>now he has shown his hand and shown it to be a poor one.
It's not powerless, the higher attrition rate he achieved is considerable and maybe Assad is better off with a ceasefire in control of the M5. Further, he can escalate further, maybe by trying to systematically shoot down any Syrian aircraft in the area, and has the nuclear option of a direct ground assault by Turkish troops. But overall he has maneuvered himself into a corner and now both his internal and external situations are awful. If he didn't rig the system enough he might be unseated from power.

Won't help much.

Bernd 03/05/2020 (Thu) 06:46:47 [Preview] No.34830 del
While reading the short news on the livemap I got the feeling the armed activity in the south was mostly individual peeps taking potshots on whatever. Just a few were more organized.

Bernd 03/05/2020 (Thu) 14:02:06 [Preview] No.34833 del
The two are having serious discussions in Moscow right now.

Bernd 03/05/2020 (Thu) 16:37:32 [Preview] No.34835 del
Forging an everlasting peace these two great statesmen will do. Especially the little one.

Bernd 03/05/2020 (Thu) 20:17:22 [Preview] No.34841 del
Here's the result.
Well it's nice and all, joint patrolling in a corridor along the M4... But what's gonna happen with the rest of Idlib area? The de-escalation area is probably defined in those 2017-2018 memorandums, but still.
>combat terrorism
>avoid targeting civilians
Nice rubber agreement. Al-Qaeda types mix in the civilian crowd. One side can always claim "those were terrorists", the other can reply with "those were civilians".
>There can be no military solution to the Syrian conflict
So Assad isn't allowed to finish the job. Even Russia says so. They are basically solidifying a divided Syria with hostile forces leading each. They are guaranteeing that a new conflict can be ignited any time. That corner of the Middle East remains destabilized.
What does this mean anyway? Assad is Syrian? Who is the Syrian?

What a turd.
I think peace can only be reached if one side is defeated properly. Now that Assad has the upper hand it's him who should unify and rebuild the country, he should be bind by UN to give concessions whatever were the demands, and allow the refugees back to resettle.
I also believe the countries of the European Union fucked up big time. They should have committed themselves removing Assad at all cost as fast as possible. Now Erdogan has the refugee tap and he can open it any time he wants it. Basically the EU countries gave away control over their own fate. I believe an EU Army is needed and it have to be made ready to be deployed at all the places where the situation can influence directly Europe (liek Africa and the Middle East). The best would be leaving NATO and committing solely to own force. This would mean ofc raising military spending and this would cut into the standard of living, western peeps would have a hard time to accept that. Especially now the liberals and "greens". Also without Britain...

Bernd 03/05/2020 (Thu) 20:58:40 [Preview] No.34843 del
>joint patrolling in a corridor along the M4...
Unless the Syrian army moves in this won't go anywhere, with jihadists still in the area it'll be impossible in practice to open the highway for civilian traffic. The previous Sochi demilitarization stipulated that it would be open and nothing of the sort happened.
>But what's gonna happen with the rest of Idlib area?
Frontlines freeze where they are. Turkey's whole intervention was about getting loyalists to retreat back to Sochi lines and now Erdogan admits defeat in this goal.
>Nice rubber agreement. Al-Qaeda types mix in the civilian crowd. One side can always claim "those were terrorists", the other can reply with "those were civilians".
Last agreement also included Turkey dissolving HTS, instead at this point they gave vehicles and bombing support. So it's meaningless.
>They are basically solidifying a divided Syria with hostile forces leading each. They are guaranteeing that a new conflict can be ignited any time.
Also what Astana and Sochi did, and in both cases fighting broke out again in a matter of months. This is also the case now. Assad has no long-term intention to maintain the truce and the rebels keep provoking, a quick breakdown is inevitable. A potential flashpoint is Afes, from where the rebels can shell the M5 and try to close it.
So not only Erdogan had to accept all of Assad's gains, but all he got back with is some breathing room, a few moments of respite. He can't move things in the direction he wants so he just stalls and delays. What is his long-term plan? Just preserving the status quo, maintaining Idlib as it is, an Afghanistan with tens of thousands of heavily armed jihadists roaming around. He fears the alternative -letting it be restored to the Syrian government- means he'll get more refugees and lose prestige and a bargaining chip, so he's willing to accept this. It's also what Western hawks want. Yet it's a foolish strategy. Rebel Idlib is a perpetual hotbed of instability and a potential terror threat. Sure, at the moment it can be argued that it distracts Sunni fundamentalists by channeling their enthusiasm, but those people are unpredictable. Who knows if Syrian jihadists won't launch terrorist attacks on Turkey itself in the future? And letting them hold that land is a point of prestige for fundamentalists across the world as well as a breeding ground for locals potentially joining the cause of jihad. Syria's armed opposition is a spent force, a dead end, it cannot effect any change, all Erdogan can try to do is extend its lifespan.

Bernd 03/05/2020 (Thu) 20:59:01 [Preview] No.34844 del
This interesting article situates Iran/Hezbollah within the current crisis and sets it to the background of last year's Peace Spring crisis. Turkey had offered the M4 and M5 in exchange for Kobane but Russia felt it had a strong hand, valued its ties with the SDF and concluded it did not need a deal, preparing instead for a military takeover of the highways. Now that Turkey found itself without either Kobane or the highways it reacted with force so it wouldn't be at a complete loss. During this escalation, besides the battles in Saraqib in the south there was a rebel attempt to advance towards Aleppo through al-Eis, and in the process Turkish bombing killed some Hezbollah fighters, as the area was in Iran's sphere of influence. Iran and Hezbollah threatened to retaliate, making Turkey back down from bombing them. Hezbollah then took an important part in the final battle to retake Saraqib. This last counterattack, however, happened only after an initial period in which the Russian air force stayed put for 48 hours and loyalists were heavily damaged by Turkish bombing with little AA capabilities in place. This was the period when the rebels seemed to regain the upper hand. Then Russian jets returned to the field, Syrian AA assets arrived, Turkish drones began to fall and the tide reversed once again.
But I'm not sure about the Russian Air Force stepping down part, this is the first time I read about it.

RT has some casualty figures.
>Assad’s army has suffered significant losses during the conflict – hundreds of troops have been killed or wounded. Assad’s allies have also been affected, including Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, who lost 43 soldiers in an attack on an observation post. There have been losses in Hezbollah’s units as well, even though they haven’t engaged in any frontline combat.
>For example, in a matter of days, 191 soldiers from the Syrian armed forces were killed, and another 292 wounded. The army also lost tanks, IFVs and artillery guns and mortars, though experts say most of the damaged hardware can be repaired and used again.
So hundreds, not thousands of casualties as Turkey claimed. Still a lot. But no numbers on tank losses, which might well reach a few dozen, and other armor.

And Erdogan's approval rating is weak. The Turkish public is unenthusiastic about this operation. Right now he can say he "won" because he stopped further advances and refugee generation but this truce will break down in mont

Bernd 03/06/2020 (Fri) 07:34:47 [Preview] No.34850 del
>Last agreement also included Turkey dissolving HTS

As I recall, Turkey actually did try to convince HTS to GTFO but they refused. That being said, I don't know what the hell is going on in the region anymore, it's such a clusterfuck of competing news.

Bernd 03/06/2020 (Fri) 07:41:28 [Preview] No.34851 del
>He fears the alternative -letting it be restored to the Syrian government- means he'll get more refugees

How? If Assad wins, the refugees no longer have an excuse to stay in Turkey. They can all be thrown out into Syria within weeks to Assad's mercy. Sure, you might argue that it is not humane and that they will suffer under Assad but at this point, I'm pretty sure that the Turks don't give a shit, they want all the Syrians and other migrants gone. Remove the immigrants, reinforce the border and watch Assad like a hawk. If the PKK starts initiating assaults again with Assad's help, run a massive propaganda campaign against him, get NATO onboard and rape his ass with a full-on offensive. Russia won't dare do shit with the NATO forces ravaging the area except stand and watch helplessly as their hard-earned investments go down the toilet. Withdrawing from Syria is basically the only smart option left now.

Bernd 03/06/2020 (Fri) 19:23:51 [Preview] No.34858 del
>>But what's gonna happen with the rest of Idlib area?
>Frontlines freeze where they are.
With the halting of all military actions yes, it should mean that. I was trying to highlight that this little "additional protocol" says nothing about the rest of the land. And I added I dunno what is exactly in the previous agreements.
I see you have some knowledge on that however, your post explains a lot.
I saw snippets in the mininews on the livemap about Erdo sending reinforcement to the observation points. I think he will use this intermission to also resupply the rebels, and prop them up for another round, so the agony of Syria can continue.

Many might leave if Assad stays. But I would think they already gone, so that's that.

Bernd 03/06/2020 (Fri) 21:25:19 [Preview] No.34876 del
Further proofs that EU is a joke.
>"If we say today 'we want a no-fly zone,'" Borrell said, “the problem is not what we want, the problem is what we can do.”

Bernd 03/07/2020 (Sat) 03:15:04 [Preview] No.34878 del
Yes, I mean it did have an effect but it also showed that in order for Turkey to have the impact they want they will have to escalate and that may not even be possible for numerous internal and external reasons. Knowing this Syria can be emboldened, they can keep pushing the rebels and could potentially start pushing into the northern held area as well(but I'm not sure they will until Idlib is cleared).

Many of them aren't even Syrians to begin with, many off the people in Idlib aren't even Syrian. The issue is that these foreign fighters often tend to bring their family with them.

Bernd 03/07/2020 (Sat) 08:49:22 [Preview] No.34886 del
>I think he will use this intermission to also resupply the rebels, and prop them up for another round, so the agony of Syria can continue.

I don't think Erdogan is that stupid, he knows if there's another firefight and more Turkish soldiers die, there will be riots in Turkey and his ass is grass. As proven over and over, you can't keep giving resources and air/artillery support to a bunch of incompetent jihadi goatfuckers and expect them to magically turn into the Wehrmacht.

Bernd 03/07/2020 (Sat) 09:44:13 [Preview] No.34890 del
>there will be riots in Turkey
Can this be stated categorically? Maybe his approval is falling but this wouldn't necessarily lead to riots.
He does not need a proper army, he just buys more time. The use of the vast majority of war material can be taught in a fairly short time and trained to adequate level.
>As proven over and over
This is interesting. Can you give examples?

Bernd 03/07/2020 (Sat) 15:41:36 [Preview] No.34895 del
Erdogan just gave the order to stop migrant boats from going across the Aegean because the Greeks keep trying to sink them. This is really turning into a huge disaster for him, first he gets humiliated by Putin, now he’s essentially conceded defeat on Greece blocking migrants by any means they want with the full blessing of the EU. Mark my words, he’ll be gone from office by next year.

Bernd 03/07/2020 (Sat) 17:04:19 [Preview] No.34896 del
On the Turkish Greek border the police of the two nations shoot at each other with teargas and shit, while Syrians stuck between them.

Bernd 03/07/2020 (Sat) 19:36:19 [Preview] No.34900 del
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Now we're gonna get boring maps in Syria.
In Libya however there's some activity.

Bernd 03/08/2020 (Sun) 03:34:02 [Preview] No.34918 del
Regime has apparently resumed their offensives into Idlib and there's a heated back-and-forth going on between the rebels and the regime. As predicted, everyone just wiped their ass with the ceasefire agreement.

Bernd 03/08/2020 (Sun) 03:45:19 [Preview] No.34919 del
Some minor gains made by the Syrians. They have been probing the area south of the M4, no air support involved, just artillery. They also sent some units back to Deir Ez-Zur from Idlib. The probing has been ongoing sense the start of the ceasefire but never gained ground before now.

It's hard to say, as they may just be fighting HTS who never were officially a part of it anyway. It's also been relatively minor so far.

Bernd 03/08/2020 (Sun) 07:09:20 [Preview] No.34921 del
I think they want to move up to the planned corridor along the M4.
>Deir Ez-Zur
There're always some Daesh activity there. I remember a memo to group troops there for bughunt, but I seem to recall as it was an American memo.

Bernd 03/08/2020 (Sun) 11:11:50 [Preview] No.34926 del
Where do taste buds come from? Not from an intelligent designer visualizing their consequences, but from a frozen history of ancestry: Adam liked sugar and ate an apple and reproduced, Barbara liked sugar and ate an apple and reproduced, Charlie liked sugar and ate an apple and reproduced, and 2763 generations later, the allele became fixed in the population. For convenience of thought, we sometimes compress this giant history and say: "Evolution did it." But it's not a quick, local event like a human designer visualizing a screwdriver. This is the objective cause of a taste bud.

What is the objective shape of a taste bud? Technically, it's a molecular sensor connected to reinforcement circuitry. This adds another level of indirection, because the taste bud isn't directly acquiring food. It's influencing the organism's mind, making the organism want to eat foods that are similar to the food just eaten.

What is the objective consequence of a taste bud? In a modern First World human, it plays out in multiple chains of causality: from the desire to eat more chocolate, to the plan to eat more chocolate, to eating chocolate, to getting fat, to getting fewer dates, to reproducing less successfully. This consequence is directly opposite the key regularity in the long chain of ancestral successes which caused the taste bud's shape. But, since overeating has only recently become a problem, no significant evolution (compressed regularity of ancestry) has further influenced the taste bud's shape.

What is the meaning of eating chocolate? That's between you and your moral philosophy. Personally, I think chocolate tastes good, but I wish it were less harmful; acceptable solutions would include redesigning the chocolate or redesigning my biochemistry.

Smushing several of the concepts together, you could sort-of-say, "Modern humans do today what would have propagated our genes in a hunter-gatherer society, whether or not it helps our genes in a modern society." But this still isn't quite right, because we're not actually asking ourselves which behaviors would maximize our ancestors' inclusive fitness. And many of our activities today have no ancestral analogue. In the hunter-gatherer society there wasn't any such thing as chocolate.

So it's better to view our taste buds as an adaptation fitted to ancestral conditions that included near-starvation and apples and roast rabbit, which modern humans execute in a new context that includes cheap chocolate and constant bombardment by advertisements.

Therefore it is said: Individual organisms are best thought of as adaptation-executers, not fitness-maximizers.

Bernd 03/08/2020 (Sun) 13:53:09 [Preview] No.34928 del
They already withdrew form the villages they took. I don't think there was much meaning behind the attack.

Bernd 03/08/2020 (Sun) 15:39:06 [Preview] No.34929 del
>They can all be thrown out into Syria within weeks to Assad's mercy.
Legally Erdogan can't do that. If he ignores international law, he still has a massive public order and logistical challenge of forcibly moving millions of refugees. The last time a Turkish government tried a resettlement on this scale did not go well. Even if he has the means to ship them, Assad may block the border on his side. Refugees are mostly those who didn't support the regime in the first place and the new demographic balance is advantageous.

>I think he will use this intermission to also resupply the rebels, and prop them up for another round, so the agony of Syria can continue.
He's already doing that. They're full of TOWs, armored vehicles and probably even MANPADs and know how to use them. Not sure how much additional training can be given, he already had several years to organize his Syrian National Army.

Some sources deny the push took place at all.

Bernd 03/09/2020 (Mon) 06:35:46 [Preview] No.34942 del
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They bringin in the respiratory machine they put this rebel cause onto.

Bernd 03/12/2020 (Thu) 20:57:46 [Preview] No.35098 del
There are rumors Erdogan's next target is SDF territory. Daraa is still restless.
Coronavirus may have already reached the northeast.

Good article on the present state of the Syrian economy by an anti-regime source. Even though the war is being won living conditions continue to wither away and basics such as food and heating are hard to get. With Lebanon's crisis it gets worse. However the military is unaffected, those tied to the regime stay loyal and dissatisfaction is expressed towards the economic situation rather than to the political system.

Bernd 03/16/2020 (Mon) 06:40:29 [Preview] No.35173 del
Turkish-Russian joint patrol of the M4 is getting prevented by the resistance of the locals.
Reminds me how Turkbernd is doing.

Bernd 03/16/2020 (Mon) 13:58:21 [Preview] No.35180 del
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Terrible news, there has been a murder.

Bernd 03/16/2020 (Mon) 15:02:00 [Preview] No.35182 del
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Who done it? The cook? The gardener? The chauffeur? Or one his heirs?

Bernd 03/16/2020 (Mon) 21:50:25 [Preview] No.35203 del
They're trying everything they can, these patrols won't go anywhere. Perhaps this will give Erdogan an excuse to not intervene if Assad attacks everything south of the M4, it's already scarcely populated anyways.
Bilal Abdul Kareem interviewed some of the demonstrators. Look at the man on his left.

Bernd 03/17/2020 (Tue) 20:54:43 [Preview] No.35230 del
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Present state of the M4.

Bernd 03/17/2020 (Tue) 21:33:17 [Preview] No.35235 del
Just a couple of potholes. Nothing that a few shovel of asphalt can't fix.

Bernd 03/18/2020 (Wed) 14:20:59 [Preview] No.35263 del
They will never be fixed until the war is over.

Bernd 03/19/2020 (Thu) 01:49:01 [Preview] No.35277 del
أنت زنجي في بروكسي؟

Bernd 03/19/2020 (Thu) 01:51:56 [Preview] No.35278 del
I don't think it would stop the Russian portion of the patrol, it's not really anything the Russians would not be used to back home.

Bernd 03/19/2020 (Thu) 07:31:41 [Preview] No.35280 del
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Might be the .org domain misplace him.


Bernd 03/19/2020 (Thu) 12:28:06 [Preview] No.35284 del
Rebels bombed a TAF convoy on the M4 in Muhambal, with several Turkish casualties.

Bernd 03/19/2020 (Thu) 14:12:49 [Preview] No.35285 del

Bernd 03/19/2020 (Thu) 14:29:35 [Preview] No.35286 del
Tiny mishap.

Bernd 03/19/2020 (Thu) 16:54:42 [Preview] No.35288 del
They're angry at the patrols.

Bernd 03/19/2020 (Thu) 17:19:09 [Preview] No.35290 del
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Sounds counterproductive. Dogs biting the hand of the master usually ends worse for the dog. Now Erdogan can look away but what will happen if it repeats?

Bernd 03/19/2020 (Thu) 17:47:31 [Preview] No.35295 del
He could use this as a pretext for disarming or subjugating rebels disloyal to him, consolidating his control of Idlib. But he hasn't done so despite having the opportunity for years so he might let it pass.

Bernd 03/21/2020 (Sat) 01:21:13 [Preview] No.35332 del
>turks are now getting attacked by the very people whose asses they keep saving

I feel legitimately sorry for the Turkish soldiers in Syria, it must suck being stuck in a desert hellhole and having to take shots from everyone in the region. I'm surprised some Turkish commander didn't just decide to go rogue and firebomb everything in sight.

Bernd 03/21/2020 (Sat) 11:17:21 [Preview] No.35346 del
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Some activity, very blue.
Live map offers Epidemics map too.

>Turkish commander
He must be very trusted person.

Bernd 04/06/2020 (Mon) 20:29:23 [Preview] No.35691 del
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>Al-Hasakah Province – Syrian Observatory for Human Rights: reliable sources have informed SOHR that armed fight erupted between two groups of the Turkish-backed faction “Sultan Murad” in Ras Al-Ain city (Sere Kaniye), north of Al-Hasakah, after a dispute between the two groups over stealing a “washing machine”. The clashes left four militiamen injured. According to SOHR sources, two of the injured fighters were taken to Turkey after sustaining serious injuries.
Business as usual in TFSA territory.

Bernd 04/07/2020 (Tue) 05:07:46 [Preview] No.35696 del
>“washing machine”
Women are serious business.

Bernd 04/20/2020 (Mon) 02:36:57 [Preview] No.36067 del
A number of gunmen hailing from al-Tanf surrendered to the regime with their vehicles and weapons. There are several reports on what happened:

-MaT (Maghaweir al-Thowra)/Revolutionary Commando Army, the tiny rebel group which shares the zone with American troops, claims the convoy cannot be considered one of their own as it was led by a local drug dealer who gave up after MaT prevented him from doing his trade, leaving with his family including some MaT members. Previously they have claimed they interdict the drug trade in the highway and Hezbollah is involved, but do not link the dealer with Hezbollah.
-A former MaT spokesman as "Ghanam al-Khudair" aka "Abu Hamzah Asha'ir" and claims he is a MaT member and drug dealer with Hezbollah, regime and MaT ties who was protected and given a high rank by the MaT leadership but had to leave with his retinue after local hostility made his position unsafe.
-Official Syrian media says Abu Hamza was a disillusioned MaT member who defected after seeing that within al-Tanf "militants" were being trained to sabotage infrastructure in the desert and equipment was indirectly reaching ISIS. No mention of drugs at all.

Bernd 04/20/2020 (Mon) 03:21:36 [Preview] No.36068 del
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Some background.

Bernd 04/20/2020 (Mon) 05:17:54 [Preview] No.36069 del
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Reading my mind with bumping this thread.

Russians tested the new T-14 Armata main battle tank in Syria, among "wartime" conditions.
Gonna find English source, but for now:
This says they tested 600 weapons during their whole participation. Muntarov said Armata is just brilliant, everyone wants to buy it all right I'm exaggerating here a little, he said it was good and there's some foreign interest in it - according to the article, but Russia won't order much, they want to modernize the existent armoured vehicle park.

sage Bernd 04/20/2020 (Mon) 05:18:16 [Preview] No.36070 del

Bernd 04/30/2020 (Thu) 17:00:38 [Preview] No.36403 del
Germany designated the entirety of Hezbollah including its political wings as a terrorist organization, which should damage funding from the diaspora.
And a few days ago was the fifth anniversary of a massacre of hundreds of Alawites in the aftermath of rebel victories in Idlib and Jisr al-Shughur.

Bernd 06/03/2020 (Wed) 01:48:56 [Preview] No.37138 del
A few months ago the GNA took back a few positions, now I look and they have encircled a part of the LNA and are moving to take the airport. Turkish involvement keeps getting heavier with more Syrian rebels arriving as well as Turkish supplied Drones, M60s and APCs and Turkey is increasing it's official military presence as well. I guess the ceasefire in Syria is freeing up Turkish resources so they are able to give them such support but they were increasing there presence in Syria as well. They are quite busy indeed.

Bernd 06/03/2020 (Wed) 05:33:03 [Preview] No.37139 del
I kinda remember reading somewhere Russia deploying troops in Libya too. Will look that up in the eve.

Bernd 06/05/2020 (Fri) 14:35:58 [Preview] No.37255 del
So they took the airport, LNA didn't resist too strongly. The war seems to be fairly small scale, I guess because of how small Libya is population wise(it has a population of 6.6million). I think because of this an outside power can influence the tide of the war with minimal intervention if not opposed by the machinations of another outside power.

I heard there were Russian mercenaries there and a Russian war plane spotted in the area.

Bernd 06/05/2020 (Fri) 15:23:33 [Preview] No.37261 del
Yes, large scale conflict is prevented by the lack of large scale. Also Libya's armed forces were organized during the decades of Gaddafi to be weak and incompetent. Since then the country wasn't in the position to build up any army.

Bernd 06/05/2020 (Fri) 19:31:16 [Preview] No.37268 del
Just grabbed this. Probably relevant.

Bernd 06/06/2020 (Sat) 09:37:39 [Preview] No.37280 del
Here's some stats of the Libyan military. Also a screenshot from the book.
For 2020, Libya is ranked 80 of 138
Total and active military personnel: ~30 000
- fighter 17
- dedicated attack 2
- attack helicopters 7
250 tanks
450 armored vehicles
50 self-propelled artillery
100 towed artilery
55 rocket projectors
1 frigate, 4 other boats
I have to assume this is the govt. forces (GNA), and does not include rebels (LNA).

Bernd 06/07/2020 (Sun) 03:35:43 [Preview] No.37313 del
Will Libya ever go back to normal?

Bernd 06/07/2020 (Sun) 06:59:06 [Preview] No.37367 del
Will Syria?

Bernd 06/07/2020 (Sun) 15:55:07 [Preview] No.37416 del
Lebanon stabilized -though not at a high level even for Middle Eastern standards- but never recovered its former prestige.

Bernd 06/07/2020 (Sun) 22:36:03 [Preview] No.37432 del

Will Middle East?

Bernd 06/08/2020 (Mon) 02:15:25 [Preview] No.37444 del
Will USA?

Bernd 06/08/2020 (Mon) 04:58:12 [Preview] No.37476 del
Will Venezuela?

Bernd 06/08/2020 (Mon) 05:28:35 [Preview] No.37482 del
Will Bogdan's butt?

I think the continuation depends on the players in global economy. Noone wants more competition, local businesses, but resources and markets. Colonialism 2.0 in some modified form.

Bernd 07/21/2020 (Tue) 02:53:45 [Preview] No.38718 del
With its good momentum the GNA is about to try to reconquer Sirte. To compensate Erdogan's intervention Egypt has officially raised the stakes and approved the deployment of its armed forces to back Haftar:

I wonder what this means in practice. Will they send foot soldiers to Haftar's rear guard, or even his frontline?

Bernd 07/21/2020 (Tue) 05:33:51 [Preview] No.38723 del
How much backing the GNA gets from Turkey. They send fighters from Syria, some war material arrives with them for sure, but do they provide more? Like Russia did in Syria? Or simply more technical support and advisers?

Here's a list what Russia deployed in Syria:
>The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) is the world’s oldest and the UK’s leading defence and security think tank

Btw Syria, air-defence fire in the southern part of the country, with IAF activity on the other side of the border. Adding 2+2 is just a step away.

Bernd 07/22/2020 (Wed) 18:05:18 [Preview] No.38739 del
I remembered Britball's article in Kohlzine, it says Turkey supports with drones, training, and special forces.

Bernd 07/23/2020 (Thu) 14:28:03 [Preview] No.38762 del
>When it comes to the governance of Sirte and Jufra, Turkey will arguably be open to different options, rather than the GNA’s full control. Local administration of these areas or the presence of an international force could be alternatives to full control by the GNA or LNA, but the LNA’s control appears to be the main red line for Turkey.
>While Egyptian intervention or a miscalculated move can’t be ruled out, as Egypt may feel compelled to respond to a military offensive on Sirte-Jufra after its public pledges and threats, the belief is that it would likely be limited, symbolic and more in the form of air strikes than ground operations.

Bernd 08/23/2020 (Sun) 15:20:13 [Preview] No.39448 del
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I was looking up what's up in Libya Turkey and Russia is having some chat about the situation - will they divide the country into two I wonder, giving a little, gaining a little, they made compromises in Syria too but my attention was hijacked by Mali. They just had a coup! And we are talking about coups nowadays.

At the beginning of 2012 the Tuareg uprising broke out in Mali - pushing for independence -, and their president couldn't handle the situation so in a coup d'etat he was removed by a group from the military, calling itself the National Committee for the Restoration of Democracy and State. To resolve the escalating conflict - several armed groups joined in, even al-Qaeda affiliates - the French military had to intervene.
Next year during the presidential elections Ibrahim Boubacar Keita won by large over his opponent Soumaila Cisse, he can be styled as a "unifying figure of the fractured country" who promised zero tolerance for corruption. After his five year term he was re-elected in 2018, again defeated Cisse. However some irregularities were noticed by the opposition during the election.
Keita also became less popular. By 2020 the country got into political, economic, and security crisis. Reform came slow, and were ineffective, public services crumbled, economy halted - the corona panic-pandemic made it even worse -, corruption is running rampant in the government, in inter-ethnic violence thousands died, hundreds of thousands became refugees. However he could keep those armed groups in check which caused headaches to the international partners.
This spring saw a parliamentary elections. Two events left deep impressions in the people: Cisse was kidnapped by terrorists just three days before the first round, and after the second round the Constitutional Court declared 31 seats invalid and handed over 10 to the governing party, making it the biggest faction. Protests broke out in early June and they are going up to date with little pauses. The protesters are held together by an umbrella organization called the June 5 Movement (M5-RFP), they demanded the resignation of the president.

Bernd 08/23/2020 (Sun) 15:21:40 [Preview] No.39449 del
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On Tuesday, 18th, a group of military officers, calling themselves the National Committee for the Salvation of the People arrested Keita and other government officials, then made him resign, what he announced on the 19th, little after midnight. Now this junta is leading the country, according to them they are preparing for a new election, handing back the power to civil governance, in a reasonable time.
Internationally the coup was condemned by everyone ofc, from the Economic Community of West African States (since Mali is a member), through France, South Africa, the African Union, Algeria, Angola, Nigeria, Germany, Turkey, US, China, to the UN. They have to ofc be very concerned, there are some rules to play by, and ofc noone wants to get couped, no need to encourage those. As I read their comments, most of them don't really give a shit about Keita, they just urging to hold an election and get done with the military government asap.

It's easy to spot the parallels with the 2012 coup probably will play out similarly and Mali will return to the internationally sanctified constitutional ways. Heh, one article I read a fun comment, not sure now who said it, but went something like this: "referring to constitutionality is a bad argument, anti-constitutional events happen all over Africa all the time, they are going right now and noone cares" (this isn't an exact quote ofc).
I see an interesting contrast. President Keita is 75 years old, while the group of officers are kinda low ranking (colonel and below) and young ones. The leader of the junta, Colonel Assimi Goita is said to be 37.

Bernd 08/24/2020 (Mon) 05:03:32 [Preview] No.39453 del
>but my attention was hijacked by Mali. They just had a coup! And we are talking about coups nowadays.

Wonder why nobody has reported that happening

> To resolve the escalating conflict - several armed groups joined in, even al-Qaeda affiliates - the French military had to intervene.
> Cisse was kidnapped by terrorists just three days before the first round, and after the second round the Constitutional Court declared 31 seats invalid and handed over 10 to the governing party, making it the biggest faction
>President Keita is 75 years old, while the group of officers are kinda low ranking (colonel and below) and young ones. The leader of the junta, Colonel Assimi Goita is said to be 37.

That sounds legit crazy fam. Why is this not in the news?

Bernd 08/24/2020 (Mon) 05:28:35 [Preview] No.39460 del
Well, Mali is a piss poor country at behind God's back. It was in the news tho, just didn't reach headlines for that reason. Also maybe some powers that be don't want to make it too loud.
I got my info from Al Jazeera mostly but I saw other articles from big news agencies when I did some duckduckgoing.

Also it turns out Mali has an tiny army. The size of the country is quite large (but most of it is desert), the population is about the reach 20 million, which isn't that high, but their army personnel is somewhere between 7 and 10 thousand. The 7000 data is kinda old and from Wikipedia, the other figure I got from the website called "Global Firepower" which offers somewhat up to date rankings of the armies of the world.
Despite this number about 13% of their GDP goes into the military.
This force isn't homogeneous, about half of it regular army, the other half is national guards, and militias. Apparently they had to take in the Tuareg paramilitaries as well to appease them.
Gonna try to dig up more.

Bernd 08/24/2020 (Mon) 05:38:26 [Preview] No.39464 del
This is pretty crazy tbh. Yeah keep on digging bernd

Umm does this happen often in African countries? Is that an okay thing to ask fam?

Bernd 08/24/2020 (Mon) 05:45:19 [Preview] No.39465 del
>Is that an okay thing to ask fam?
Why not?
>Umm does this happen often in African countries?
I think these stuff happen all the time. And worse.

Bernd 08/24/2020 (Mon) 11:01:31 [Preview] No.39467 del
I've been hearing about how the sahara is becoming more fertile. Would be a good place for farming when the climate becomes colder

Bernd 08/24/2020 (Mon) 15:13:02 [Preview] No.39470 del
I was just thinking we should make a website dedicated to Mali. If I ddg I only find wiki articles and news. The site would gather stuff about Mali.
I dunno about that, but deserts can be "bound" by planting certain types of vegetation.

Bernd 08/24/2020 (Mon) 16:37:47 [Preview] No.39472 del
The sahara was actually very fertile a few thousands years ago. Just in roman times the climate was vastly different, with carthage (tunisia) being an absolut unit of farming.

Bernd 08/24/2020 (Mon) 17:06:36 [Preview] No.39476 del
Ofc. The whole Earth is in a constant change. I'm not sure about it turning fertile. What I hear for decades is the danger of desertification (for example on the Hungary).

Bernd 08/24/2020 (Mon) 17:35:34 [Preview] No.39477 del
They tried to scare people in the 70's with the coming ice age but that didnt work so they went on global warming instead

https://youtube.com/watch?v=xPpXHX-Tu5U [Embed]

The weather has gotten colder for a very long time.

Bernd 08/25/2020 (Tue) 19:31:34 [Preview] No.39490 del
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French soldiers are still stationed in Mali. In fact the war of 2012 hasn't ended, only toned down basically to guerilla warfare and sporadic attacks, but no light at the end of the tunnel for now. The countries involved - called the G5 - in the region are: Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Chad. The plus one is France, who has over 5000 soldiers in these countries. The enemy consists of Islamist armed groups, including the largest an al-Qaeda offshoot group - the "al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb" - and ISIS itself.
Anti-French sentiments are getting stronger in Mali, these days - after the coup - some protesters demand the French troops to leave. And France's, Macron's plan coincides, they want the local troops to take over the bulk of the heavy lifting so French troops can return home (which is already scheduled). It's like the Vietnamisation was in the Vietnam War. Will France manage better?
Btw other countries were involved in the conflict, like Germany, Sweden, Estonia, and China. And ofc more African ones.
The main divide between ethnicities in this equation is the Tuaregs and Arabs vs negers. By 2013 Tuaregs are out of the conflict. Btw about 90% of the population is Muslim.

Bernd 08/25/2020 (Tue) 20:45:48 [Preview] No.39491 del
Why are france there in the first place?

Bernd 08/25/2020 (Tue) 21:02:26 [Preview] No.39492 del
Neocolonialism. Not only do all ethnic groups there speak French as a lingua franca there, they use francs and gained independence.
There has to be some way to enforce the technocracy in Africa; China and France are just the typical agents in this accord.

Bernd 08/25/2020 (Tue) 21:07:30 [Preview] No.39493 del
Gained "independence" only 50 years ago. Several years after other colonies such as Vietnam and Lebanon.

Bernd 08/25/2020 (Tue) 21:16:09 [Preview] No.39497 del
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>Why not?

>I think these stuff happen all the time. And worse.

Oh yeah? Well then, Africa needs learn how to manage it better

There. Someone had to say it

Bernd 08/25/2020 (Tue) 21:16:56 [Preview] No.39498 del
This is a legit clusterfuck of a conflict tbh

Bernd 08/26/2020 (Wed) 01:01:38 [Preview] No.39505 del
>It's easy to spot the parallels with the 2012 coup probably will play out similarly and Mali will return to the internationally sanctified constitutional ways
Not at all uncommon for militaries to just "shuffle the deck", throwing their weight behind one or another civilian faction, then returning to their quarters.

Bernd 08/26/2020 (Wed) 05:57:31 [Preview] No.39512 del
It's their heap of rubbish. They keep close ties with Franceafrique (it's good for business, the deal with those countries keeps them being relevant, for example they get cheap radioactive material for their NPPs, French companies get special treatment in the area, etc.)

B-but Macron said no neocolonialism is in play.

Yeah they should learn. They can't. Whitey are still exploiting them and their tribal conflicts, now China is there to do the same, and ofc these jihadi fucknuts also want a slice from the pie. And frankly their tribal conflicts and tribal, despotic mentality does not help.

No end in the foreseeable future. And if it ends, there will be others in Africa. I wonder how many are ongoing.

Yeah. Basically you write about one.

Bernd 08/28/2020 (Fri) 04:20:51 [Preview] No.39558 del
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>No end in the foreseeable future. And if it ends, there will be others in Africa. I wonder how many are ongoing.

Looks like Africa
"Puts glasses on
is Afridone

Bernd 08/28/2020 (Fri) 04:22:53 [Preview] No.39559 del
I could also use 'Africa, more like Africant" but I dunno

I just wanted to post this polandball comic as a response

Bernd 08/28/2020 (Fri) 19:19:30 [Preview] No.39567 del
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There is a connection with the conflict in Libya.
Tuaregs in the past had several confrontation with the Mali government - 1963-1964, 1990-1996, 2006, 2012 -, chiefly because their integration into the state's politics and economy is seriously lacking. They wanted a place at the table and they took up fighting for it. I'm lacking in info what results they reached but I assume if they gained anything in time they always lost it again.
Prior to 2012 northern Mali was on the road of decay, arms, drugs, and human trafficking become prominent. In 2011 the "Arab Spring" sprouted the flowers of war in Libya and Tuaregs went there to join the fray from everywhere they lived, from Mali too. Then they returned in 2012 drunk on blood and some military experience under their belt to start their rebellion - which then resulted in deposing the President in a coup by the military.

Bernd 08/28/2020 (Fri) 19:20:53 [Preview] No.39568 del
Dl'd that Polanball comics.

Bernd 09/01/2020 (Tue) 18:18:31 [Preview] No.39681 del

Bernd 09/02/2020 (Wed) 19:56:31 [Preview] No.39715 del
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This might be of some interest.
I'm reading Perspectives on Military Intelligence from the First World War to Mali - Between Learning and Law (by various authors and editors) in relation to the recent topic.
There are several ongoing peacekeeping mission in Mali, on behalf of the EU, and the UN, since the conflict of 2012. Chapter 9 examines the case of MINUSMA - the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali - at least the intelligence gathering part. It has a couple of memorable tidbits, I'm not finished yet however.
At one point the peacekeeping force consisted about 20 000 military personnel (way larger then Mali's own force), besides they employed policemen, international civilians, UN volunteers, and local hires. Most of the personnel is African in origin.
From intelligence point of view, they were (and are) capable of gathering huge amount of it, since day zero. They have a few ways of collecting intel, from simply talking to locals, through helicopter recon (Dutch army even sent Apaches) and UAVs, to "Open Source Intelligence". However quite a few obstacles is/was rendering it less useful. In the beginning the dedicated units lacked direction, due to the commander of the force only gave vague instructions, the second dude who took over however solved this. But there are many ongoing problems, for example the lack of equipment, especially computers, they could process the data and store it. Language barrier is also a major problem: due to the international nature of the UN forces they speak many languages, but worse people in Mali themselves have many other languages, frequently they don't speak French, which is a lingua franca in the region. Many of UN soldiers illiterate(!), not to mention the locals. One juicy tidbit is that the average people of Mali doesn't understand the nature of the conflict going on around him, they only perceive the quarrels in their local communities between groups and individuals.
Some pages still left from the chapter will see if there's any noteworthy in there.

Bernd 09/04/2020 (Fri) 04:20:14 [Preview] No.39750 del
>the average people of Mali doesn't understand the nature of the conflict going on around him, they only perceive the quarrels in their local communities between groups and individuals
In many ways local quarrels aren't details in the big picture but the big picture is a structure tying together local quarrels. The quarrels always existed and once one side happens to be part of a side in the big picture, the other local side will pick the wider opposition side.

Bernd 09/08/2020 (Tue) 18:58:36 [Preview] No.39887 del
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Some maps for Mali.
Btw, the local ISIS in the region is called Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS).
The local branch of al-Qaeda is called Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wa-l-Muslimin (JNIM). One of their prominent leader is called Amadou Kouffa.

Hmm. True.
I'm reading a paper now about how fragmented this conflict and its participants are. I found a website of a so called "think tank" which has great many publications related to Mali. These guys (I know nothing about them, just find out they exist):

Bernd 09/08/2020 (Tue) 19:00:11 [Preview] No.39888 del
*just found out

Bernd 09/08/2020 (Tue) 21:03:51 [Preview] No.39889 del
That paper I mentioned isn't really about the fragmentation of the conflict and the participants as I imagined, but more about politics. The author takes the kidnapping of the opposition leader, Soumaila Cisse, as an example for a demonstration. I wanna skim it through once more tomorrow because it contains quite a few absurdities and hilarious details worth mentioning here.
For example the goals of participants. The government (well, now ex-government) seems willing to negotiate a deal with JNIM, however the opposition opposes the negotiation. The rebel groups accuse the government to be a puppet of France, meanwhile France want to run this conflict until all the rebels eradicated, no deals accepted. ISGS also wants to fight to the end. But that's given, liek the sky is blue and the grass is green.

Bernd 09/09/2020 (Wed) 19:59:29 [Preview] No.39905 del
On the Hungary, the political elite is fairly the same from 1990, they have the same background, social circles they came from, no matter what parties were they in (the only divide was their place during the communism, did they have ties to the Party, or were they in the forming opposition movement). Rejuvenation goes slowly, on one side came the Jobbik, on the other the newer liberal parties (LMP, Momentum), but among their ranks there are people who already had ties to the elite.
In Mali it's worse, because smaller the societal base where politicians could come from, education, profession, connections, people all lack in these. So since 1990 their political elite basically unchanged or those who got into it were already in it with one foot. And people are fed up with them, the traditional parties both on the government and the opposition side, with their leading figures have low popularity - while other public figures, such as clerics enjoy wide support from the populace. And since the social circles of politics are small, they are fairly the same, and personal changes means little for the big picture This also means the most recent coup won't have much effect.
The traditional political elite does what it can to appease Western expectations (France first and foremost) which is mostly ensuring a rule what can be called democratic, and suppressing "terrorist" elements. Since the latter is a tough job and they don't have the resource, they try to satisfy the firs by holding elections regularly, no matter the circumstances. So in these times with the low level war as background noise, this spring they went ahead to keep another - spiced with usual voting "irregularities".

Bernd 09/09/2020 (Wed) 20:02:18 [Preview] No.39906 del
In central Mali, not far from Timbuktu to the south west, in Niafunké administrative district on 17th March, a candidate of the governing party, the main rival of Soumalainen Cisse in that district was kidnapped by an armed group and held captive for 48 hours.
Central Mali is a place where neither side has decisive control over the region, and the kidnapping of his rival warned Cisse to be careful. He negotiated safe travel with local armed bands, hired local bodyguards instead of relying the government's security forces, and checked in with the local authorities. Such authority was the mayor of Koumaira, who assured him about the safty of his settlement.
On 25th of March however when visiting Koumaira, his delegation was intercepted and kidnapped by another armed group. Only one of his bodyguard lost his life and shortly everyone from his entourage was released. Cisse himself was delivered to Amadou Kouffa, the leader of the JNIM most likely. The last news says he was chained to a tree.
Koumaira’s Mayor, Amadou Kalossi, felt remorse and stepped forward to negotiate of his release, just to find himself kidnapped as well. He was released in early May.
The government wasn't lazy, formed a committee on 31 March, but it took a month to staff fully the board, and they did little in practice.
Roughly 20 other "unofficial" effort was made in parallel to free the leading politician of the oppostion. All failed. They say his family was willing to pay a large sum to an individual who claimed he can deliver, but the guy disappeared with the money.

Bernd 09/09/2020 (Wed) 20:05:08 [Preview] No.39907 del
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Why was he kidnapped? Noone entirely sure, it was evaluated differently. Kouffa can lose as much as he can gain from the act. As the leader of the opposition Cissé was against the negotiation the government had with him, this could be a reason. But Kouffa proving himself untrustworthy with this act could hamper in the very same conciliation - playing on the hand of France, who wants to continue the war.
One detail also spices up the act. Both him and Cisse are from the Peul people, an ethnicity native to Sahel, whom are suffering from considerable stigmatization due to the fact that disproportionately many recruits of the JNIM and the ISGS are from this folk. While Kouffa tries riding two horses simultaneously by showing himself as a Peul community leader and a regional jihadist commander, he could suffer a blowback from behalf of other Peul leaders.

Bernd 09/10/2020 (Thu) 00:40:19 [Preview] No.39913 del
>Btw, the local ISIS in the region is called Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS).
>The local branch of al-Qaeda is called Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wa-l-Muslimin (JNIM). One of their prominent leader is called Amadou Kouffa.

Any other debil groups going to be joining this mess in the future?

Bernd 09/10/2020 (Thu) 05:47:47 [Preview] No.39925 del
All the participating sides are fragmenting constantly and the fragments switching sides.
For example from the northern rebels a Timbuktu based, chiefly Tuareg militia seceded, and created the Coalition for the People of Azawad (CPA), which switched sides and now supports the government forces. (I think they were the ones I was writing about when I started to post Mali related stuff).
Or Kouffa always have to deal with little bands leaving his JNIM and joining ISGS.
But there are a bunch of more or less independent fighting force, tribal, clan, or locality based. Their leaders often participate in the state in official positions.

Bernd 09/15/2020 (Tue) 19:47:03 [Preview] No.40107 del
The information processing of the UN peackeepers had its own peculiarities, which hampered the overall effectiveness of their job - besides the caveats I already mentioned related to gathering data.
The first time in the history of UN peackeeping they established a specialized intelligence unit, the All Sources Information Fusion Unit (ASIFU), with localized subunits, and they fitted it into the structure of MINUSMA to cooperate with other branches' intelligence sections. But this led to confusions. For example MINUSMA HQ had 15 officer trusted with intel work, but they lacked in training in that area, however ASIFU had over 70 well trained intel officers. So on one hand due to competence ASIFU tried to lead the intel efforts, but due to it's place in the hierarchy MINUSMA HQ demanded that role to itself.
The different units used different and incompatible databases to store their info, the Dutch used their TITAAN system (used in NATO), but others used SAGE, which is standard for the UN.
Or the Swedish Task Force - subordinated to ASIFU HQ - only shared processed data with the superior unit, and not raw information.
The African units reported their collected raw info to the commander of the unit. Then he passed the still raw info to his superior, then that guy give it one level above, and so on until it landed on the desk of the MINUSMA commander, who confused intelligence officers during briefings who didn't get that info.

ASIFU's main target for its intelligence reports was the Force Commander, but they also made ones for strategic level, for UN organizations and offices above MINUSMA, and also to lower levels, for subunits, and civilian components of the peacekeepers in Mali too. However the needs and what ASIFU provided sometimes differed. Military commanders needed current and security related information, ASIFU prepared long term comprehensive reports.

From now on I want to look up info about the 2012 putsch, or even deviate from Mali, and about coups in general. I'm curious after the Brazilian example.

Bernd 09/16/2020 (Wed) 04:19:18 [Preview] No.40117 del
Definitively worth a look. No examples from my subject of study but it appears in the tables at the end. They do cite 1955 and 1961 as examples of successful coups. The first was a preventative legalist countercoup which successfully allowed the elected President to assume office, and the second a failed coup though politically the result was a draw. As it distinguishes military and political perpetrators, more cases than registered were by both political and military factions. The 1964 case is formally known as a "Civilian-military coup" and happened so swiftly through strong support among governors and Congress.

Bernd 09/16/2020 (Wed) 04:28:16 [Preview] No.40121 del
wut this about? Seems spooky

Bernd 09/16/2020 (Wed) 06:03:50 [Preview] No.40129 del
What made me post it was what I found it in the Preface of the 2016 Edition.
all through the years to the last coup recorded in 2015, the essence of the coup d’état has remained exactly the same: it is a special form of politics that requires guns as an aid to persuasion, although coups rarely succeed if guns are much used and fail totally if the situation degenerates into civil war—the polar opposite of the swift and bloodless coup d’état.
Made me think that a failure of a coup doesn't just mean it didn't succeed and the people whom they wanted to remove from power will remain, there are other consequences for the act; and yes a civil war is a failure of grand proportion (even if the side wins which started the coup).
And your topic is a very successful putsch, and now I'm thinking those Brazilian officers really did know what they were doing (in a theoretical sense; they might had very incomplete information what is going on out in the field about them and as a consequence they might were very unsure what their next step should be), and avoiding bloodshed was a top priority.

It seems to be a study of coup d'etats, by a military historian. I haven't read much of anything but I'm expecting he author dissecting the topic, and making generalized observations based on individual cases.
Here's the short contents:
1. What Is the Coup d’État?
2. When Is a Coup d’État Possible?
3. The Strategy of the Coup d’État
4. The Planning of the Coup d’État
5. The Execution of the Coup d’État

Bernd 09/18/2020 (Fri) 03:55:55 [Preview] No.40159 del
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>It seems to be a study of coup d'etats,

>All those int troops.

Just send all of planet earth at this point.

I guess some people got inspired by the berndscramble for Africa we did a few months ago

Bernd 09/18/2020 (Fri) 15:15:07 [Preview] No.40168 del
Well, UN force, bound to be mixed cold cuts. I saw Bangladeshi and Chinese troops listed.

Bernd 09/19/2020 (Sat) 19:37:52 [Preview] No.40189 del
Well I skimmed through the Wikipee article of the 2012 Malian coup, it didn't go as smooth as this year's, they couldn't really seize the president, they needed about two weeks to make him resign. I wanna know more about this, but only this much I could afford today.

What's up with these Malian names?
>Amadou Toumani Touré
Touman was a Hun khan, the first one who unified the steppe people in Asia.
>Soumaïla Cissé
Well, Soumi = Finland, and soumalainen = Finnish.

Bernd 09/20/2020 (Sun) 13:20:50 [Preview] No.40191 del
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This shit is hilarious:
>but the alliance quickly broke down over Ansar Dine’s insistence on imposing a strict version of Sharīʿah law in the region, which had traditionally embraced a more liberal and tolerant version of Islam.
>more liberal and tolerant version of Islam.

Bernd 09/20/2020 (Sun) 20:19:58 [Preview] No.40192 del
It's not easy to dig up info on the 2012 coup d'etat of Mali. But some nice pearls can be found out there.
From this article we can learn that the 2012 coup was done by low ranking officers and even enlisted soldiers. The leader was a captain (Amadou Sanogo), and their spokesman was a lieutenant. Now we can read about colonels related to this year's coup.
The army of Mali back then, was 7000 strong, this was reinforced through the years since then. Still considering it's pretty weak and have to cover a large country.
But more importantly the article says that the Tuareg rebellion - which led to the destabilization of the country and triggered the coup - was made possible by the arms the Tuareg fighters obtained in Libya's revolution which deposed and killed Gaddafi, and brought back home.
They link this article, which contains more info about this:
The Tuaregs gained considerable firepower. Beside their trusty Kalashnikovs now they could deploy machine guns, mortars, anti-tank and anti-aircraft weaponry. They also had first hand battle experience, and started the rebellion with about a thousand soldiers. It seems religious fanaticism also made them more dangerous. Mali's army proved to be impotent against them.
Gaddafi's role however is more deeper than this. Apparently his country played as a base camp, training center for Africa's rebellious groups for decades now. He also supported separatist and rebel movements all over the continent. Tuaregs themselves got their drills while visiting their Libyan cousins basically. In Mali Gaddafi also was a foreign benefactor who helped to develop the country, but the Arab Spring and his death resulted in a conflict still haven't resolved.
The article closes with a quote from a Malian lawmaker:
“The Westerners didn’t want Qaddafi, and they got rid of him, and they created problems for all of us,” he said. “When you chased Qaddafi out in that barbaric fashion, you created 10 more Qaddafis. The whole Saharo-Sahelian region has become unlivable.”

I also found an interesting website:
They published a few articles about Mali, I'm gonna check those sometimes. The site main profile is military news, so I'm hopeful.

Bernd 09/20/2020 (Sun) 22:51:11 [Preview] No.40195 del
Quite! Specially when you understand what it really means:
>more liberal and tolerant version of Islam.
I.e. moderate islam, i.e. western liberalism decorated with islamic motifs.

Bernd 09/21/2020 (Mon) 05:23:20 [Preview] No.40197 del
Nope. They just meant secular polity. The intention of the encyclopedia is the usual Western European liberal narration they try to justify importing over 9000 muslims with:
>these guys baaaaad muslims, they make war and shiet
>these guys good muslims, we have to take them in

Bernd 09/21/2020 (Mon) 05:37:34 [Preview] No.40200 del
Also it's just a divide Muslim countries can be cracked along, used in global politics, and goes back to the Cold War era when the SU and the US competed for influence. One side won those who would rule based on Sharia, the other side supported the seculars. In the next country it happened the other way around.

Bernd 09/27/2020 (Sun) 13:23:24 [Preview] No.40341 del
Artsakh - Azerbaijan frontline has gone hot in the past hours. The rumors of Syrian mercenaries brought to the area will be proved or disproved.

Bernd 09/27/2020 (Sun) 17:14:47 [Preview] No.40342 del
Something is always going on in the Kaukaz.
>The rumors of Syrian mercenaries brought to the area
I see an analogy here with the Malian Tuaregs.

Bernd 09/29/2020 (Tue) 18:51:41 [Preview] No.40364 del
Heh, we do really has a war on our hands.
Sending Syrian rebels would be an understandable move on the part of Turkey. Nothing good can come out from those guys sitting on their hands, thinking about ways to pass the time, fiddling with guns and explosives.

Bernd 10/01/2020 (Thu) 13:34:39 [Preview] No.40402 del
How's the stuff going?

Bernd 10/01/2020 (Thu) 15:53:22 [Preview] No.40406 del
Way too many stuff are going. Which one?

Bernd 10/01/2020 (Thu) 16:14:00 [Preview] No.40407 del
It must be frustrating being a Syrian rebel, first you fight a war in Syria and then there is a ceasefire so you can't do anything, then you get shipped to Libya and the fighting hits a lull again so you can't do anything and then you get shipped to Azerbaijan, where can they go next? Yemen?

Bernd 10/01/2020 (Thu) 16:16:31 [Preview] No.40408 del
Das fühl when you'll never get to travel around the world with your buddies.

Bernd 10/03/2020 (Sat) 06:43:25 [Preview] No.40429 del
It's not easy to find any deeper data on the coupl of 2012 in Mali, that's not already said. But the Luttwak book started to give the first nuggets. Gonna sum it up little later. Now I've some irl stuff to do, then the stream will start.

Bernd 10/03/2020 (Sat) 13:40:47 [Preview] No.40431 del
So I'm at the chapter about the preconditions of the coup, and the first one is the Economic Backwardness. Actually this is more than just economy, but everything that a working economy could provide, or prevent:
the general condition of the population is characterized by disease, illiteracy, high birth and death rates, and periodic hunger
Also the divide between the political elite and the rest of the society - even those who belong to local bureaucracy - that prevents the latter actively participating in politics, and not be just simple subjects.
To sum it up:
The social and economic conditions of the target country must be such as to confine political participation to a small fraction of the population.
Mali is one of the poorest country on the Earth, about 165th in GDP (PPP) per capita, and 184th in HDI. Both the paper I mentioned above at the kidnapping of Cisse, and the MINUSMA assessment confirms that the general populace is detached from the political activity, and those who participates are basically from the same circles, makes little difference for the people who is at the helm of the country. The little people and their attention is trapped in their tight world around them, the local community, clan, tribe. For them it's entirely irrelevant if a coup replaces people above their heads.
The fact that the leaders of the country can be picked from a small group leads to the second point: Political Independence. In this section Luttwak points out that coups cannot be successful in countries which are occupied by a foreign power, or dependent on one, without the blessing or at least neutrality of that foreign power. The first example he gave is Hungary: in 1956 the Revolution successfully took over the country's direction, but eventually failed, because the real source of power was Moscow. Luttwak soon arrives to France and her ex-colonies:
Former French colonies in West Africa are the most persistent examples of such dependence because the presence of the former mother country is very real—and very effective. Instead of large and expensive armies, there are military and economic “advisers,” there is economic aid, and, above all, there is the tight web of long-established dependence in nonpolitical spheres.
Although the French have generally opted for neutrality in the face of African coups, intervening only now and then, they have retained in Africa or in rapidly deployable form a force of several thousand air-transportable troops with efficient, albeit light, weapons.
Basically a coup cannot happen in Mali without France deliberately looking the other way. This is made easy by the fact that doesn't matter who's gonna be the next boss in Mali, those guys only can be promoted from Mali's political elite (since noone else with the necessary education, wealth, connections), and this whole political elite holds the approval of the French government. For France it doesn't matter who holds the reign in Mali, all candidates considered presentable. Oh yeah, they express their concerns about "constitutionalism", they did both 2012 and 2020, but that's a routine act for the international community.

Bernd 10/03/2020 (Sat) 13:49:30 [Preview] No.40432 del
Among those quotes some other remarks are mixed.
a few companies of French troops inserted in January 2013 defeated the Islamist insurgents who were conquering the vastness of Mali.
That may not sound like a large force, but it is huge when compared to the efficient bits of local armies (whose troops are worthless for the most part), so that French interventions have usually been decisive.
In comparison after 7 years of struggle Mali still isn't pacified. While the Tuareg rebellion was quenched, the rest of Al-Qaeda and the local ISIS branch are still at large and causing problems.
A coup could have been countered by the French if they wanted, especially in 2012 when the President got away and was in hiding for weeks, but France did not want to intervene. I would expect further coups in Mali, until the other preconditions for the coups eradicated.

Bernd 10/08/2020 (Thu) 19:41:42 [Preview] No.40483 del
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Had to look up what's this Armenian-Azeri war is about. Judging by the threads on Kohl, it's about Russia vs Ukraine. Wikipedia says it's about a region's ownership/independence, and they call it the war by the region's name as "2020 Nagorno-Karabakh conflict". But learning from the moral of the previous stories, and from the information morsels here and there it may be very well another arm wrestling of the major powers of the area.
I heard something that the Hungarian government supports Azerbaijan following the directive "no border changes ever" which I find curious since:
1. they support Catalonia's independence
2. France can support Armenia
3. there were a bunch of border changes already
4. Nagorno-Karabakh is for about 25 years under Armenian control
Such cases.

Bernd 10/08/2020 (Thu) 20:10:49 [Preview] No.40484 del
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Found fun shit in the Luttwak book, about USian security and intelligence agencies, about the whole bloated structure it is today. Quotes are incoming.
the intelligence community has grown enormously into a many headed bureaucratic monster, largely because each intelligence failure caused by gross errors induces Congress to give even more money to those who fail, instead of the opposite.
the abolition of the wartime stand-alone Office of Strategic Services (OSS) was followed by the formation of the very small and improvised Central Intelligence Group with some OSS people as a temporary expedient. At that point, the State Department could have easily absorbed that orphan entity, but the career Foreign Service Officers of those days disliked its ex-OSS “émigré” (read Jewish) intellectuals and assorted tough guys and, therefore, allowed the rise of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) as an entirely independent agency—which over the years has gained ever greater funding (regardless of its abysmal performance) and has become a powerful competitor in the policymaking process.
Worse still, the CIA itself failed to live up to its name from the start because the army, navy, and the air force retained their own separate intelligence organizations. [...] the Defense Intelligence Agency, did not include the codebreakers — a handful of talents pre-1941, in the thousands by 1945, and later embodied into the immense National Security Agency (NSA), whose ambition to intercept any and every electromagnetic transmission, including the idle chatter of infants with cell phones [keks], was merely dented by the revelations of Edward Snowden, the most patriotic of traitors. But the hydra has many more heads, 19 of them at the last count, though there may be more
The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), whose thousands of employees include very few people who know any foreign languages other than Spanish perhaps, even fewer people who know any useful language
The very much larger NSA, with the world’s largest gathering of computers and an ever-growing number of linguists who can translate an ever-shrinking proportion of all communications intercepted. (Hilarious.)

Bernd 10/09/2020 (Fri) 00:12:10 [Preview] No.40486 del
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Azerbaijan is making gains. Turkey parked some F-16s in Ganja air base.

>Hungarian government
>no border changes ever

Bernd 10/09/2020 (Fri) 18:46:15 [Preview] No.40496 del
>>Hungarian government
>>no border changes ever
Well, nothing much that could be taken seriously. Since 1990 governments had to gave upon the border revision a couple of times, Fidesz had to as well, not just the previous governments. I don't think it's in the foreign policy to support officially Székelyföld's autonomy, which is far from border corrections. Politicians here and there from the Fidesz expressed their support (especially since Hungarians with double citizenship can vote, so they need to be friendly with them) but nothing like independence, or gib back clay. In the Jobbik, sure, but again not as official policy. And even Jobbik cannot be taken seriously, they'll never get into the government, and from farther right, it gets more weightless.
Many Hungarians would support revision, it's not a political reality however. Now.

Bernd 10/09/2020 (Fri) 19:57:07 [Preview] No.40497 del
Jihadi biker gangs shooting at each other in Mali. Sons of Al-Qurani

Bernd 10/09/2020 (Fri) 21:07:32 [Preview] No.40498 del
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>Muslim biker gang warfare and turf war

This is beginning to be too much Mali ENOUGH!

Bernd 10/18/2020 (Sun) 18:41:44 [Preview] No.40599 del
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Baijanis take their time with this campaign. Gained some grounds, but considering that southern tip is more even terrain, they won't have easier going later.
Lots of chatter about drone strikes made by the Azeris, seen some vids too.

Meanwhile Libya is getting into an impasse. Situation balanced out. It feels like a pattern, powers coming in (Russia and Turkey), and they divide the place and solidifying the situation at their leisure, not restoring the original form of the countries, but making them divided for unknown length.

Bernd 10/21/2020 (Wed) 12:43:37 [Preview] No.40641 del
Azerbaijan made major breakthroughs in the past 2 days, their strategy of slowly hammering Armenian forces to breaking point and then making rapid advancements seems to be paying off. Additionally, Armenian forces apparently tried to lure Azerbaijani forces into a trap near Shushi region and ended up getting surrounded and destroyed, leading to Azerbaijan making even more advancements. Apparently there's reports of heated clashes near Lacin now, which means Armenia's southern flank has completely collapsed and they don't have enough soldiers to reinforce anymore.

Libya, I don't even know what the fuck is going on anymore. Sarraj resigned, which caused chaos across the board and now Haftar is holding a bunch of Italian fishermen hostage and demanding an exchange for some human traffickers that Italy arrested. Additionally, UN is trying to broker another ceasefire and as expected, GNA is quickly on-board demonstrating how committed to peace they are and shit, while LNA, realizing that they are probably going to get screwed by any agreement, seem to be stubbornly resisting. Unlike Syria, I think Libya isn't going to end at an indefinite impasse, one side is going to dominate eventually.

Bernd 10/21/2020 (Wed) 16:52:44 [Preview] No.40645 del
>Azerbaijan vs Armenia
Are the size of the clashes known?

Bernd 10/22/2020 (Thu) 07:00:39 [Preview] No.40663 del
Currently contained to Nagorno-Karabakh itself, with occasional shelling by Armenian forces of Azerbaijani cities closer to their border. Not sure what they are trying to achieve with that, it just makes them look bad in the international sphere despite some foreign media outlets making not so subtle attempts to run interference for them.

Bernd 10/22/2020 (Thu) 15:13:09 [Preview] No.40667 del
I meant the size of units participating, for example in that backfired ambuscade.

Bernd 10/22/2020 (Thu) 16:12:21 [Preview] No.40668 del

Pretty interesting that Armenia isn't officially part of conflict, it doesn't even recognize Karabakh independence (!), although de-facto it is Armenian territory. This is one reason why Armenia couldn't use own forces fully, but Azerbaijan could (because it is officially their own land and they do what they want).

Armenia also has no allies, nor proper army to act against both Azerbaijan and Turkey (that silently backs Azerbaijan), so it couldn't, for example, use aviation openly (although Azeris also hesistant to use it to slow the escalation).

Another problem of Armenia is complete unpreparedness. They won in 90s with less numbers and worse equipment than Azerbaijan had, only on quality of forces, but then didn't do anything. Although few years ago another clash displayed that Azeris pushed large amount of money in the army and now are much better prepared to conflict. That clash didn't change anything, Armenians still has no anti-drone weapons or proper tactics in new situation, and lose in combat badly.

Some videos from Azerbaijan MoD:

https://youtube.com/watch?v=jUB3TLnpiWY [Embed]
https://youtube.com/watch?v=_-HYLEpBbrg [Embed]
https://youtube.com/watch?v=uvV4feHuLdo [Embed]

Bernd 10/22/2020 (Thu) 16:50:16 [Preview] No.40670 del
>Armenia also has no allies
Russia has a military base in armenia yo

Bernd 10/22/2020 (Thu) 18:55:40 [Preview] No.40673 del
But Russia is also Azerbaijan's arms supplier. Their role might be more like an arbiter's.

Bernd 10/23/2020 (Fri) 02:16:14 [Preview] No.40683 del
Well, it's in the thousands. Armenia literally announced total mobilization of their entire country, asking civilians to grab whatever they can and charge east to fight Azerbaijan. This definitely ain't no small skirmish anymore.

Armenia is definitely part of the conflict, the armed forces of Armenian NK are basically an extension of their own. Hell, officials who served in the "Republic of Artsakh" government went on to serve in the Armenian one and RoA has direct representation in Armenian government. They just don't officially recognize it because it would mean a whole heap of political headaches for them that would weaken their political position more than it already has been (though that might be changing now with Pashinyan pulling out all the stops). Azerbaijan is actually the one handicapped here because Armenia can directly attack them, claim it's actually Nagorno-Karabakh's forces and Azerbaijan can't attack Armenia in response, only keep pushing into NK.

Russia sells weapons to Azerbaijan, it gives them to Armenia for free (there was a hilarious moment about this recently where Pashinyan complained to Putin that the missiles Russia gave them are busted - Putin replied that they have ones that work but they cost money). This is why Armenia is in such deep shit now, this is the first conflict with Azerbaijan where they haven't had massive Russian backing because their government has been shitting on Russia and Putin for too long. France seems to have stepped in to send them some supplies though and Russia still sends them some stuff through Iran, even though it's less now. And apparently they have some Kurdish militants fighting for them now although that is uncertain much like the Syrian mercenaries for Azerbaijan story.

Bernd 10/23/2020 (Fri) 03:08:59 [Preview] No.40684 del
>apparently they have some Kurdish militants fighting for them now although that is uncertain much like the Syrian mercenaries for Azerbaijan story.
Pretty sure the Kurds are a Turkish/Azeri fabrication. On the other hand there's plenty of evidence for the TFSA fighters.

Bernd 10/23/2020 (Fri) 09:35:30 [Preview] No.40689 del
>Russia has a military base in armenia yo

Russia has friendly relations with both sides. Armenian relations had some cooling recently, but they are still friends.

Actually, Russia is in lose-lose situation. If it backs Armenia, Azerbaijan would be lost, and Russia has no good way to influence Azerbaijan in another way (economics aren't that highly tied, Azerbaijan also has own oil and ways to export it). If Russia backs Azerbaijan, it loses Armenia that can then go westward and became Georgia-like "NATO friend". But Armenia is less valuable ally, because it is basically an empty country without people and any reasonable economics (all Armenians are abroad, really). In both cases Russia loses one ally at south border.

In these types of situations regional superpower must say "just stop", without backing anyone, and both countries must stop. Otherwise superpower isn't really a superpower. But looks like "just stop" doesn't work, at least now. Maybe Moscow waits until new Armenian government became friendlier (i.e. until Armenia loses and cry for help).

Bernd 10/24/2020 (Sat) 00:33:35 [Preview] No.40697 del
Or the worst friend you can have

Bernd 10/24/2020 (Sat) 02:40:56 [Preview] No.40699 del
Apparently the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service straight-up confirmed that there are both Kurdish and Syrian fighters in the area, so it seems both sides are using external help. The Kurdish militants I can swallow a bit easier because Armenia has had friendly relations with groups like PKK for years, while I have no idea why Azerbaijan would permit Sunni jihadists to come to the frontline. They'd sooner shoot their Shi'a comrades than Armenians and according to Armenian claims, there are already cases of them refusing to fight. But, it is what it is.

I don't think it's exactly lose-lose. If Armenia loses NK, Pashinyan gets the boot and likely another pro-Russian puppet gets installed in government, which means Russia regains their influence over Armenia. Their relationship with Azerbaijan remains the same. The only wildcard is Turkey. Their relationship with Azerbaijan could possibly get much stronger, so Russia will need to watch that. That's why I think Putin is pushing for peacekeepers now. He knows the stalemate that's been going on in Karabakh for 20 years is likely gone now, so he needs to find another way to play a balancing act in the region.

Bernd 10/24/2020 (Sat) 11:53:40 [Preview] No.40712 del
>I have no idea why Azerbaijan would permit Sunni jihadists to come to the frontline
A lot of the TFSA are Syrian Turkmen, they're fighting for ethnic reasons. But more importantly the ones who've volunteered to go abroad are mercenaries, they're doing it for the money.

Bernd 10/24/2020 (Sat) 16:08:19 [Preview] No.40715 del
If the area they are fighting for is so desolate and poor why are they fighting over it?

Doesnt make sense to me. Does it have oil or is it important for the assbadjan pipeline?

Bernd 10/25/2020 (Sun) 08:04:21 [Preview] No.40723 del
(166.17 KB 800x800 Coat_of_arms_of_Mali.png)
Luttwak ofc writes about the foreign reactions triggered by the coup:
one particular problem, however, requires further exploration: recognition by foreign powers.
And parts of these insights feels as if they were moulded after Mali.
for the poorest countries whose pays réel lies outside their own borders, it will be a crucial problem - Mali as one of the most pisspoor part of Franceafrique, heavily dependent on France.
When much of the available disposable funds come from foreign aid both official and via non-governmental organizations [...] the maintenance of good relations with the particular donor country [...] may well be a determining factor in our political survival after the coup. - for Mali - as one of the most poorest country on Earth, where economic development is almost nonexistent, and large part of the country is a warzone for 8 years now - foreign aid is crucial, as soon as the news of the coup got out, the African Union for example announced embargo. But more than that, foreign troops are present in the form of not one, but three international military/peacekeeping missions, they are ever present, and they influence the life of the country on daily basis.
Premature recognition by a foreign power, i.e., recognition granted while the old regime still retains some degree of control, is becoming regarded as a form of aggression in international law. - The coup of 2020 was done very quick and without incidents, unlike the 2012 one. Still no foreign powers went ahead and recognized the junta, not even Russia or Turkey.
Beyond that, however, recognition is usually granted even to very illegitimate governments after a polite interval if there are convincing assurances about their continuity in terms of foreign relations. These assurances are conveyed simply and publicly by formal announcements stating that membership in alliances and groupings will be maintained, that foreign agreements and obligations will be respected, and that legitimate foreign interests in the country concerned will - The whole coup was about just putting aside the leadership and giving a way to a new civilian government who would change the inner policies (initiating economic growth, shutting down corruption etc), but honor foreign treaties. Foreign powers, and organizations like UN or African Union demanded adhering to constitutionality, and the Junta in their declarations and press releases weren't slow to promise the announcement of new elections asap.
The whole coup in Mali very much went down in a way to please everyone who has any power over Mali.

Bernd 10/25/2020 (Sun) 15:54:46 [Preview] No.40728 del
Should have formatted this >>40723 better, I can barely see, what are the quotes and what are my thoughts.

Bernd 10/25/2020 (Sun) 19:42:00 [Preview] No.40729 del
(645.35 KB 1319x842 20201025-karabakh.png)
Baijanis made considerable gains since the last map. By area at least, no idea about the importance of any of those places.

Bernd 10/27/2020 (Tue) 00:17:28 [Preview] No.40742 del
Imagine if they made a videogame out of this clusterfuck of an ethnic conflict and colonial struggle for territorial control

Would bernd ever play it?

Bernd 10/27/2020 (Tue) 06:06:57 [Preview] No.40750 del
Isn't that Victoria 2? And Tropico? Managing a banana republic without getting couped does sound like Tropico.
Although it would be an awesome game if you had to play the one who tries to coup the regime.

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