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Syria thread - Putin edition Bernd 07/30/2021 (Fri) 02:19:43 [Preview] No. 44602
Daraa insurgency flared up a lot.

> We host more than %50 of worldd refugees it will eventually bite Europe bad. When shit hits the fan blame your politicians for buying out erdoğan instead of encouraging their permanent return in syria
But there can only be a permanent refugee solution when the government recovers control of the whole country, and Erdogan delayed that from happening last year when he interrupted the successful offensive in Idlib.

Bernd 07/30/2021 (Fri) 04:38:13 [Preview] No.44603 del
>But there can only be a permanent refugee solution when the government recovers control of the whole country
The Free Syrian Government, yes.

Bernd 07/30/2021 (Fri) 11:02:50 [Preview] No.44604 del
(301.57 KB 828x624 07.25-map.png)
Any side but Assad is irrelevant for a while now (picrel was made in 2018...) in the topic of reforming the country and state. Hence Turkey's intervention stretched out the conflict (on the other hand this might give a bargaining chip to those who oppose Assad rule, maybe they can get concessions).

What is the composition of the refugees? Where they came from? How much are from Syria, and other countries?
As the migrant crisis emerged in 2015 the Frontex started to publish papers about the migrants, where and how they enter and their place of origin. As time passed the ratio of Syrians fall, but then the Frontex got lazy and published these things more sporadically and stopped to follow. Maybe gonna try and dig into their documents on their site.

>Daraa insurgency flared up a lot.
And the SAA artillery activity south of the M4 at Idlib looks systematic shelling. Are they planning a push finally to the highway, but in return in the South rebels started diversions to hold down some govt forces?

Bernd 07/30/2021 (Fri) 11:45:59 [Preview] No.44605 del
(758.89 KB 1091x654 2021-07-30-donbass.png)
Well I guess here's one screenshot of Donbass. Dunno how much "ceasefire violations" happen normally.
Also check out that news about a new toy. What could that be?

Bernd 07/30/2021 (Fri) 20:58:15 [Preview] No.44608 del
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>Also check out that news about a new toy. What could that be?

Some kind of typical jamming station.

Dutch bernd Bernd 07/30/2021 (Fri) 21:58:17 [Preview] No.44610 del
(296.21 KB 1280x891 inside.png)
I actually know people from Ukraine now. So that picture worries me a lil bit. And makes me really :( face

Bernd 07/30/2021 (Fri) 23:40:37 [Preview] No.44623 del
We didnt precenr anything in idlib. If assad tooknit over we wouldnt able to settle down 3 million syriana in there. Half of the country is governed by ypg do you think idlib is the worst threat for regime?

Assad despite what he says dont want his syrians back. He is glad he Got rid of them.

Bernd 07/31/2021 (Sat) 06:56:30 [Preview] No.44625 del
I messed it up I wrote it while half asleep.


took it*

Bernd 07/31/2021 (Sat) 08:03:42 [Preview] No.44626 del
>We didnt precenr anything in idlib.
Turkish "observation posts" were placed all over the border and the inside in the way of the advancing SAA forces. And then Turkish convoys entering blocked further offensive. Assad and pals would have got back Idlib in 2019 or when was this (fugg 2020 just flew away).
>we wouldnt able to settle down 3 million syriana in there
Is this an ongoing process in the region still on the hand of the rebels?
>Half of the country is governed by ypg
Is it really? The SAA had to move in to meet the Turkish forces when they established the security zone inside Syria on the land nominally in the hand of the YPG and co. The US backing of the Kurds was lowered considerable when their protection was handed over to Assad essentially (I dunno where I saved those genious Trump tweets about the event, so requesting from any Bernds). So YPG doesn't matter that much, and while I do not debate they still have considerable amount of autonomy over stuff, I question the extent of it.

Bernd 07/31/2021 (Sat) 09:45:47 [Preview] No.44627 del
Currently there is 3-4 million settled refugees in idlib.

>Syria on the land nominally in the hand of the YPG and co
No, YPG is on process to create a legitimate state and they are controlling oil fiels also they have access to euphrates river. So YPG is not dependent on Assad, in fact I could claim otherwise if we take account the fact Russia is playing with both sides and YPG has full American support, the situation is much worse for Assad.

>So YPG doesn't matter that much
Yes that's the reason why think tanks and the western media glorifies them to the point of brainwashing the western people. You don't continue to bet on a horse which you think it will lose.

Anyway if you think we are in idlib for landgrab you are out of your mind. I would agree on this one though, if we didnt have a populist incompetent leader we could reach an agreement with Assad give him what he wanted (which all other parties would besides HDP even from start of the civil war) in return we would let him use idlib as retarded islamist containment zone. If he want to get rid of those people eventually he would have to resettle them in preferably irrelevant shithole somewhere in Syria.

Bernd 07/31/2021 (Sat) 09:51:41 [Preview] No.44628 del
>...maybe look into moving if things get bad enough Turkeybernd?
If I will have to move which means millions will as well. Which means I would be treated with no dignity. I didn't born to live as slave in europe. Europe is in no position to enrich millions of refugees with luxuries and europe feels existensial threat just because they take 10.000 refugees.

Europeans are not humanitarian as much as you think, it's just you guys afford to be seem that way because of your media power and prospered lifestyle. I can feel the murderous itch of euros as if they are waiting to reunlock nazi mode. It would be safe for a few refugees but not for millions.

Bernd 07/31/2021 (Sat) 10:21:34 [Preview] No.44629 del
>we could reach an agreement with Assad give him what he wanted (which all other parties would besides HDP even from start of the civil war) in return we would let him use idlib as retarded islamist containment zone.

Isn't this actually happened now?

Bernd 07/31/2021 (Sat) 11:12:20 [Preview] No.44631 del
if that was the case assad wouldnt attack idlib neither Turkey would try to push even more.

Bernd 07/31/2021 (Sat) 13:18:49 [Preview] No.44632 del
(381.56 KB 1123x798 refuggees-2018.png)
>Currently there is 3-4 million settled refugees in idlib.
That's a lot of people. How is the situation in Turkey?
How many refugee camps are there? Or there's a big one?
The YPGs river access means they can use it as a water source, or as a transportation infrastructure, or both, and others (like natural border, a defense line, etc)?
>if you think we are in idlib for landgrab
Noone implied that.

(For no particular reason I wanted to post that Turkish pepe sending Merkelmen to Grease from Izmir, but can't find it. Gonna post picrel instead. I highly doubt anyone knows the number of people who entered the EU and never left since 2015.)
>I can feel the murderous itch of euros as if they are waiting to reunlock nazi mode
If we can believe in the events of the Euro Cup we have a big division in the population along the lines of BLM and LGBT, and whatever made up issue the media feeds to us. There won't be any united front when the refugee/migrant question comes up again (sometimes after people get bored by the covid hysteria).

>Assad wouldnt attack idlib
For now it seems they strike on the area south of M4 which road would be a border, and patrolled by Turkish and Russian forces. Or something like that was the deal couple of years ago. Things could have changed, ofc.

Bernd 07/31/2021 (Sat) 13:52:14 [Preview] No.44635 del
>How is the situation in Turkey?

>How many refugee camps are there? Or there's a big one?
I dont know the numbers but they are starting to become majority in one city and a few counties. There is 6 million of them in Turkey and 3-4 million in idlib. They are freely roaming in the cities, crime rates has been increased. And since we have no border security if one does get killed by syrians or afghans they are to be deported but they can freely come back.

We cant protest or rebel because we know Erdoğan is arming them and wont hesitate to use against us. In a civil war EU and USA would freely intervene and bomb the shit all of us. They would freely bomb our military, our reseources and our cities and thanks to their media power everyone would believe what they would say. Obviouslt they would try to weaken us as much as possible so we wont ever dream to be independent. Russia would do the same if they can.

So the extremely idiotic slogans like "just revolt like you can toplle erdogan!!" just gives us a sad cringe. And lately lots of fake news spreading by "totally independent and unbiased" foreign news agencies mostly to provoke civil unrest or worse.

>The YPGs river access means they can use it as a water source, or as a transportation infrastructure, or both, and others (like natural border, a defense line, etc)?
Both, plus, oil without water means nothing at all. We have both of the most important water source in the entire region. If you take a look at the kurds claim in Turkey on the map, you will see why south east anatolia wants to be seperated from us and certain states are supporting it via "independent" NGOs.

Bernd 07/31/2021 (Sat) 23:12:44 [Preview] No.44638 del
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>if that was the case assad wouldnt attack idlib neither Turkey would try to push even more.

Considering that border is stable for long time, looks like there is no real attacks from both sides. Local skirmishes and obligatory shelling is just a part and parcel (c) of modern local conflicts. Like Donbass situation, where that happens everyday but no real action is planned from both sides.

I guess these attacks are more like opportunistic action of local forces. Local militias try to get something with quiet approval from top, with chance that other side would not intervene heavily. Everyone need to constantly prove that they can enforce their claims, because all agreements are nothing without backing power. Like in that story where Russian mercenaries tried to grab some oil-related place with idea that "these Americans are cowards", but it didn't work: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Khasham

>They are freely roaming in the cities, crime rates has been increased.

Why there aren't in camps like in some European countries?

Bernd 08/01/2021 (Sun) 03:01:43 [Preview] No.44640 del
>If assad tooknit over we wouldnt able to settle down 3 million syriana in there
So how is the process of setting those syrians/kurds back in rebel Idlib going? According to what you were saying it sounds like more people are pouring into turkey, not less. What is the plan? Prop them up militarily as a kind of buffer statelet where to dump the war refugees and kurds later?
>Assad despite what he says dont want his syrians back. He is glad he Got rid of them.
Your view seems to be that the syrian government wants its territory back but not the rebels, preferring them to flee into neighbor countries rather than resettle them elsewhere. But I have also read that the rebels are not a majority and they just hold local population hostage because they control natural resources, production, and distribution channels, and the foreign aid. This would mean that syria would also want most of the people there. Why couldn't this be negotiated with Syria? Has Assad hinted that he won't negotiate with Turkey the return of refugees?
>Half of the country is governed by ypg
They cannot last without their US patrons

>because we know Erdoğan is arming them and wont hesitate to use against us
The syrian rebel mercenaries? Is it still happening through the "humanitarian aid" border, as that man Peker >>44391 said?
What about some of his other claims?

Bernd 08/02/2021 (Mon) 12:26:02 [Preview] No.44651 del
>Your view seems to be that the syrian government wants its territory back but not the rebels, preferring them to flee into neighbor countries rather than resettle them elsewhere. But I have also read that the rebels are not a majority and they just hold local population hostage because they control natural resources, production, and distribution channels, and the foreign aid.
Those aren't mutually exclusive, most of Idlib's population might well dislike both the government and whichever specific rebel group lords over them. Idlib in particular was a high unrest province from the beginning and has only received more anti-government people since then. Refugees are also more likely to dislike the government, as it is rebel-controlled neighborhoods which got depopulated the most by the fighting (rebels don't have as much artillery, or else it'd be equal).
That said, even if the government doesn't want the refugees back/they don't want to return, ending the war early is still better than dragging it out. Once the war is deemed over, conditions will improve, the government might do internal changes, international pressure will relax and more refugees will want to return.

Bernd 08/06/2021 (Fri) 20:05:11 [Preview] No.44677 del
Back to US, back to US, back to Afghanistan.
>The Taliban now controls about half of Afghanistan’s districts
Who wanna bet, no stopping there?

But here's the comparison, tl;dr version:
1. personnel (estimates)
Afghan national security forces (including the army, special forces, air force, police, and intelligence) total strength: 307 000
From this the combat forces: 180 000
Taliban: 55-85 000
2. funding (further estimates)
Afghan military: $5-6 billion
Taliban: $300 million to $1,5 billion
3. weapons and equipment (this one listed in a silly way)
Afghan military: Western made weapons, assault rifles, armoured vehicles, artillery, surveillance drones, night-vision goggles, air force (with attack helicopters)
Taliban: mainly small arms and light weapons, RPGs, mortars, various small rockets, some AA and AT capabilities, suicide bombers, IEDs, captured Western made weapons and equipment
4. cohesion and morale (how they measured this?)
Afghan military: suffered high casualties, corruption, desertions, now foreign troops departed, poor planning and leadership, low morale
Taliban: internal rifts, but greater cohesion, religious zeal

Considering the Taliban has the initiative and pushes on - for now - unstoppable, this does not look good for the govt. the US left behind.

Also, I found this:

Bernd 08/13/2021 (Fri) 17:52:36 [Preview] No.44734 del
The Afghan government left behind by the US is fucked. Taliban moves forward quick, they took over Kandahar (2nd largest city) today. Even Hungarian media says they are unstoppable.

These maps I got from here:

Bernd 08/13/2021 (Fri) 17:54:41 [Preview] No.44735 del
Fugg, all the maps I dl'd is broken. Gonna see what I can do about it.

Bernd 08/13/2021 (Fri) 21:26:14 [Preview] No.44741 del
Reading reports on Twitter that Taliban are in Maidan Shar – 30km from Kabul, and on the road from Kabul to Hazarajat.
They'll be in Kabul by tomorrow if they want so.

Bernd 08/14/2021 (Sat) 06:20:56 [Preview] No.44742 del
I bet some units are already inside.

Bernd 08/14/2021 (Sat) 23:17:50 [Preview] No.44747 del
According to internet rumours/propaganda:
>some taliban soldiers fell in a confrontation
>a handful (supposedly) of the Kabul forces desecrated the bodies
>shortly afterwards a taliban offensive takes and secures the territory
>the whole company (supposedly) that mutilated the fallen is executed in retaliation
Also, yanks instructing its embassy to destroy information and evacuate, so doesn't seem like they have much hope in Kabul holding for long
Western feminists squealing like sows. Here's hoping they get BTFO, literally if necessary.
On the other hand, I wish this doesn't end up spilling and destabilising the whole region (this might have been an important goal of the US withdrawal: create chaos for China and the ex-USSR stans)
Several weeks ago an occupied bus exploded in Pakistan killing several Pakistanis and Chinese. Nobody claimed responsibility for the attack, but Islamabad believes it was by TTP (the Pakistani Taliban, not directly connected to the Afghan Taliban) facilitated by anti-Pakistan/anti-China influences (India and Kabul).
Couple of days ago another occupied bus exploded in Russia. One died in hospital and a few are injured. Unknown so far if accident or attack

Bernd 08/15/2021 (Sun) 06:58:06 [Preview] No.44748 del
That event might be happened. Might be instigated, but could be normal thing to do around there.
>I wish this doesn't end up spilling and destabilising the whole region
If the Taliban takes the country over quick, there will be no destabilization. It seems they gained free hand to do whatever, so establishing their order shouldn't take long. Both (taking actions freely and the short timeframe) means the region will be stable again. The war there was a destabilization factor. Now outer meddling stops, and the inner forces have the ability to resolve their problems. Maybe it will be brutal, but resolving the problems and judging, labeling the taken actions are two different things.
Tl;dr Taliban takeover will lead to stabilization.
>bus exploded in Pakistan
>bus exploded in Russia
What their foreign policy will be, or how their victory will influence the action of others, I dunno.
Also these could be provocations again.

Bernd 08/15/2021 (Sun) 12:24:46 [Preview] No.44749 del
Aaand... they're in Kabul.
Ghani has surrendered, they already held a press conference. Said they'll only do executions and stonings if such is the court rulings. And that women will be allowed to leave house.

Bernd 08/15/2021 (Sun) 12:25:24 [Preview] No.44750 del
(42.04 KB 660x525 E80rJP4WYAEEHam.jpeg)
Looks familiar?

Bernd 08/15/2021 (Sun) 12:34:07 [Preview] No.44751 del
Just wow. The whole thing on behalf of NATO was just handing over the power to the Taliban. No way NATO HQ and political leadership was that misinformed they thought the govt. left behind can stand on its feet.

Nod really. Did not follow. Context?

Bernd 08/15/2021 (Sun) 12:42:16 [Preview] No.44752 del
Oh you meant as Vietnam reference.

Bernd 08/15/2021 (Sun) 14:09:32 [Preview] No.44753 del
>Ghani left Kabul for Tajikistan
t. Al Jazeera.

>Helicopters land at the US Embassy in Kabul as the Taliban advanced on the Afghan capital. [Rahmat Gul/AP Photo]

Bernd 08/15/2021 (Sun) 21:05:25 [Preview] No.44754 del
>Taliban enters Afghan presidential palace after Ghani flees
>“The former Afghan president has left the nation,” Abdullah, the head of the High Council for National Reconciliation, said in a video on his Facebook page.
>Facebook page

I'm still thinking what could it mean internationally, geopolitically.
For example Iran gains a safer neighbour - in case of US meddling, I dunno Talibs means a different threat to them or not. Maybe Afghanistan will be a land route between Iran and China.
And there's the opium and its trade ofc.
Some expect a wave of refugees. Taliban hold all the border crossings, probably only those can leave whom they allow. Read Pakistan closed her borders.

Bernd 08/16/2021 (Mon) 08:07:59 [Preview] No.44755 del
Russia diplomat will hold a talk with the Taliban tomorrow, based on which Russia will decide whether or not to recognise them as the legitimate government.
Taliban already travelled to China earlier to establish ties.
There's currently a ruckus in India on how they should respond. There's the Citizenship Amendment Act 2019, which means that Afghans of Dharmic faith who have been in India before the end of 2014 were automatically eligible for citizenship, but as far as I know there's no plan to actively take any more in yet. Some are implying India should just let everyone in so that they can brag to the wect how progressive and liberal they are. But that opens another question of how to airlift them over Pakistan.
Iran and Taliban used to be enemies (theological differences lol) but I'm assuming Iran will not shoot itself in the foot and adopt the pragmatic stance here now.

Bernd 08/16/2021 (Mon) 16:00:03 [Preview] No.44758 del
>whether or not to recognise them as the legitimate government.
Noone else at the steering wheel. Even West can huff and puff now, unless prepared to move back in. They don't have to acknowledge the Taliban ofc, but throwing straight in the arms of Russia-China (and even Iran) isn't a good move. Maybe changing policy and building a relationship that leaves channels open would be better.
>Iran will not shoot itself in the foot and adopt the pragmatic stance here now.
In that we cannot be sure. Previously I said NATO HQ and political leadership had to know the the Afghan govt. will fail quick. But to be honest Western leadership also can be: 1. stupid; 2. incompetent; 3. stupid and incompetent.

Bernd 08/17/2021 (Tue) 01:45:23 [Preview] No.44760 del
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Pretty nice composition with that traditional painting in the back, they look similar
>For example Iran gains a safer neighbour - in case of US meddling
At least short-medium term situation should be clearly better than having more US bases next door
>Maybe Afghanistan will be a land route between Iran and China.
yes, if Afghanistan can be estabilised quickly enough then maybe they can be offered some role in China's new "silk road" economic area that we hear from time to time. But the obvious problem for China, though, is the effects of militant islamism on Xinjiang and uygurs and the flame-fanning that comes from the western media. One might think they should be able to deal with it economically (rather than militarily, I suppose they won't be eager to saddle themselves with war), but the problem is that the Taliban is not very centralised, so it's uncertain whether their authorities can keep whatever bilateral deal they sign, even if they do so in good faith
>And there's the opium and its trade ofc.
Interestingly, the recent opium boom happened during the occupation. Maybe they will burn them all again as they once did.
>Pakistan closed her borders.
Pakistan has a porous border with Afghanistan. There are even some pockets over which Islamabad doesn't have good control and are de-facto dominated by TTP chiefs.
I do think they preferred the Taliban over the US puppet government, since they seem to have provided them some help or at least refuge. The obvious reasons are being islamic vs. liberal-secular, and the fact that India was invested in the Kabul government (for the same religious reason), so Pakistan had go against it

I think it all comes down to whether Taliban will settle down and try to maintain a unified policy between all their different chieftains
Still surprising how quickly it all crumbled. If the US knew then they deliberately misled as part of some secret deal. But those crazy and pathetic scenes at the airport make me suspect that they were just winging it as they went along

Bernd 08/17/2021 (Tue) 12:49:19 [Preview] No.44774 del
>Iran and Taliban used to be enemies (theological differences lol) but I'm assuming Iran will not shoot itself in the foot and adopt the pragmatic stance here now.
Also depends on how pragmatic the Taliban will be. If they alienate the Hazara too much, Iran may retaliate. That will depend on how they'll try to build their power structure. There's no unifying Afghan nationalism and they chiefly represent a subset of Pashtuns. For prolonged stability they'll have to establish alliances with elites of other ethnicities and a modus vivendi with their populations, or their power will fall apart.
It'll be interesting to watch how they choose to run the country now. How much of the old regime's administrative structure, most of which stands intact, will they absorb into theirs, and how will this change the character of the new regime? Will they enforce a more moderate sharia than what they did in the 90s? How much development will they pursue, given that it can threaten the permanence of the social order they prize?

I suppose their neighbors will want a stable and moderate, or stable and isolationist, regime, while America will back the more fundamentalist and outward-looking factions to destabilize the region. Those will always exist because it's in the nature of the Taliban's ideology, but will be powerful only under certain conditions.

Bernd 08/17/2021 (Tue) 16:31:09 [Preview] No.44778 del
Taliban have so far:

- allowed to have a woman interview them on Kabul TV:
>In this program, host Beheshta Arghand interviews Mawlawi Abdulhaq Hemad, a close member of the Taliban’s media team, about Kabul’s situation and house-to-house searches in the city.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=4B0ryE3i7R8 [Embed]

- visited a Shi'a ashura (mourning) event in a Hazara neighbourhood:

They held a presser (the first one), I'm copying what BBC says were the main points on their live ticker:
>The Taliban's first news conference since taking control of Afghanistan covered many topics. Here are the main takeaways:

> The group are actively working on forming a government and that it "will be announced after completion" said spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid
> He said "women are going to be very active within our society" and that they would be allowed to work "within the frameworks of our Islamic laws", but didn't ellaborate on what that means in practice
> When asked about contractors and translators who have worked with foreign powers, Mujahid said that "nobody is going to be treated with revenge" and that the group had "pardoned everybody for the benefit of stability or peace in Afghanistan"
> He said the Taliban promised to respect the role of the press and pledged that "private media can continue to be free and independent"
> But he warned that "the media should not work against us"
> When asked about the risk of the country housing al-Qaeda fighters or other extremists, Mujahid said that "Afghanistan's soil is not going to be used against anybody"
> He also claimed that the Taliban had planned to halt their advance "at the gates of Kabul so the transition process could be completed smoothly", but were forced to enter the city "to ensure the security of the residents"
I think I seen someone comment they also said they are committed to once again end opium production.

So yeah, I think they're trying to be pragmatic

Bernd 08/18/2021 (Wed) 19:56:49 [Preview] No.44792 del
Fugg, too many articles, too little time to read. Gonna reflect on what was posted here by Bernd.

Bernd 08/19/2021 (Thu) 13:29:04 [Preview] No.44793 del
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>Pretty nice composition with that traditional painting in the back, they look similar
They do understand theatrics.
>recent opium boom happened during the occupation
Some say opium trade was in the Taliban's hand. Even Al Jazeera article here >>44677 says they get the funding - partially - from "narcotics industry".
>Maybe they will burn them all again as they once did.
I also did hear they did that, or against the opium trade. It would be nice to see clear in this question as well. Since you mentioned their lack of central control, and high self-sufficiency of local leaders could be some profits from it, while others taking measures against it.

>There's no unifying Afghan nationalism
Afghanistan is also a very "diverse" country with many ethnicities and languages. But the intermarriages are extensive, the individuals have other ties than their ethnicity, and Islam is Universalist. So while nationalism can't join people, Islam could (liek everyone there is Muslim), state and country is just a unit of government, and not an expression of the nation's sovereignty.
>How much development will they pursue, given that it can threaten the permanence of the social order they prize?
>It'll be interesting to watch
I concur.

Thant needs a closer look on my part.

It seems they make an effort to look agreeable and use the media to build sympathy and acceptance towards them.

Bernd 08/20/2021 (Fri) 07:27:50 [Preview] No.44796 del
I'm wondering about the "fleeing Afghans", how many of them want to leave due to the danger of their security, and how many of them are would be "economic migrants" how just want comfy life on Western gibsmedats.

Bernd 08/20/2021 (Fri) 13:00:24 [Preview] No.44797 del
the "muh poor desperate fleeing afghans" is msm distraction from the usg's pure clown-world chaotic retreat, and also leftist catnip so that absolute women-like morons can cathartically feel long-distance commiseration for stupid brownies at the other side of the planet, and so that slightly less idiotic morons such as yourself can "wonder" whether they are "refugees" or yet another weight for the aging welfare states in the west that will be their destination plus another injection of foreign dna for the populations they will further dilute
taliban has already claimed they will not persecute the collaborationist (and why the fuck should we give a shit if they are being honest or not, obviously the puppet government was less favored than taliban since nobody seems to have lifted a finger to prevent its collapse)
and look at this: one of the "poor desperate fleeing afghans", so desperate that they tried to cling to the fuselage of that us airplane, was a young member of the national football team crushed by the retreating landing gear he was hanging on to, his remains fell to the ground when the wheels were again deployed for landing (some parts of his body anyway)
1- nobody will dispute that somebody who goes to such lengths is a prime example of "desperate fleeing afghans"
2- tell me what risk of reprisal from taliban can be expected for a national team football player, bullshit
3- rumors were apparently spread in kabul saying that anyone who managed to get onto a plane was to be treated as "refugee" (and therefore could expect a comfy welfare life in the west), which likely drove most the crowds to the airport
4- we don't want migrants whose iq bell curve spans that of fellows like this one
5- the people who one might reasonably expect some kind of reprisal against are the officials of the fleeing government (if they don't agree to some political/economic deal) and those rats were the very first to escape the sinking ship, some in their own comfortable and not-at-all-crowded-except-for-the-wads-of-cash private airplanes (it's very telling how after fleeing like rats some of these absolute POS took to twatter to excuse themselves by saying that they instead "were pushed inside the plane" by other rats anxious to gtfo, and writing not in whatever arabic language but in english ffs)

there is zero need to accept these so-called "fleeing afghans", there's nothing in it for us (nothing good that is), only the empire needs to save face and appear "merciful" and "good" after 20 years of fucking around in shitholistan and the clownery of the withdrawal

also, here's another aspect for you to include in your "wondering": terrorist cells are once again being flown to the west, invited by our own inept and traitorous governments

Bernd 08/20/2021 (Fri) 15:45:58 [Preview] No.44806 del
The implication that noone is in danger from the Taliban really shows that you are the one with impaired mental capacity. Literally none of these posts gives anything to the discussion.

Bernd 08/20/2021 (Fri) 17:08:20 [Preview] No.44807 del
>The implication that noone is in danger from the Taliban
that implication lives in very spacious accommodations inside your empty mind
i said explicitly who can be most reasonably expected to be "in danger" and furthermore i rhetorically questioned whether we should give a fuck either way (answer: no)
>gives anything to the discussion.
it "gave" so much to the discussion, that it apparently gave you nothing to discuss, except for the mentioned incorrect implication

Bernd 08/20/2021 (Fri) 17:49:50 [Preview] No.44808 del
Your turbo-pol one bit thinking and the way how it manifests in your writing makes your walls of texts unreadable. Besides your condescending remarks and insults shows how weightless what you write. Call your therapist and take your meds.

Bernd 08/21/2021 (Sat) 07:52:25 [Preview] No.44814 del
Read Chartbook #29.
The US policy was absolute failure. They pumped the money in ("modernization of the economy" = inflating corruption and creating a stratum in the Afghan society whom well being depends on the handouts) which did nothing to gain the support of the wider population, but deepened poverty and social division pushing everyone but their corrupt puppets in the open arms of the Taliban.
Ghani and pals had no chance (rules of Machiavelli applies).

Bernd 08/21/2021 (Sat) 20:13:49 [Preview] No.44815 del
I suggest checking the recent "chartbooks", this also gives couple of good insights:
I suspect as Ghani and Ahmady were planted they trusted Afghanistan true ally with the safekeeping of the gold.
Also in previous chartbooks Tooze says that the Afghans got a taste for phones which singlehandedly raised the import of electricity. So their import consists chiefly of phones and electricity. I bet there are other consumer products of modern societies are imported, which essentially are just junk, but sucked up large portion of the foreign aid. So imports can be safely lowered since most of that are non-essentials.
They're still gonna have problems with covering food to prevent mass starvation (due to the mentioned droughts), but the problems of the Talibans economically aren't that serious. Unless Afghans can't live without their phones.

Bernd 08/22/2021 (Sun) 20:20:02 [Preview] No.44820 del
While the Taliban took over Afghanistan, some resistance still continues here and there. This article is about Ahmad Massoud and his Tajik fighters in the Panjshir Valley.
Some more info about the place and the situation:

Bernd 08/27/2021 (Fri) 07:52:28 [Preview] No.44844 del
Was an attack against the airport in Kabul where US is doing their evacuation. Soldiers and civilians died. It seems the Delta variant of ISIS ISIS-K executed bombing attacks, mostly with IEDs. The Taliban secures a larger perimeter around the airport, or the ways leading in, so the US troops can do their job (who also secures an inner perimeter at the airport). They are continuing the evacuation, not that they have a choice in the matter.

Biden addressed the nation yesterday (starts about 22:30, goes to ~51:00):
https://youtube.com/watch?v=9tBR5cMoiOA [Embed]
Some strong words, some clear thoughts, and some scrambled gibberish.
Why those journalists(male) sound like de-masculated homos and/or eunuchs?
>if osama bin laden as well as al qaeda had chosen to launch an attack when they left saudi arabia out of yemen, did we have ever gone to afghanistan
Since they attacked from Saudi Arabia via Yemen, it's just logical to attack Afghanistan (yes, yes they went hiding there into the underground bunker - where bin Laden was killed by US special forces and then discarded into the ocean during the flight back for some mysterious reason).

Ah found a shorter version I think. Just Biden and the journos:

Bernd 08/27/2021 (Fri) 13:29:26 [Preview] No.44845 del
Turkey again in talks about running the airport in Kabul, this time in along with the Taliban. For now it's just talks, but maybe one step in the international recognition of the Taliban led state.

Three links due to one event, Putin - Xi Jinping phone call:
Essentially the whole thing was about the cooperation of Russia and China, one major point was Afghanistan ofc. Nothing concrete.
>"The leaders also agreed to engage in more bilateral contacts and closer coordination primarily through diplomatic agencies," the Kremlin added.
Wow, fucking nothing.
One detail I did not hear much about yet (probably because I don't and can't follow everything), is the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation which includes - besides the two powers - the *stans in Central Asia, India and Pakistan. Number of "observer states"... uhh... oberves(?) this organizationm whatever the fuck this means, I assume it's some kind of entry, hallway, waiting room. One of them is Afhganistan since 2012. Maybe keeping this status is another brick in the international recognition of the Taliban state. And maybe a point for Russia and Chine where they can involve Afghanistan, and weave it into the region and the plans.

Bernd 08/27/2021 (Fri) 17:18:35 [Preview] No.44846 del
(65.05 KB 622x417 trump-biden.jpg)

It is surprising how 78 years old grandpa still can talk and answer the questions relatively adequate.


Fun fact - Taliban is marked as "banned in Russian Federation", so every media must put asterisk and state it in any article. It is interesting how they will avoid it in future when official diplomatic relations would be established. Removing organization from that extremist list is a unique thing, and must be at least partially explained.

ISIS is also in that list, so recent news were like "ISIS (forbidden extremist organization) are made terror act against Taliban (forbidden extremist organization)".

>*stans in Central Asia

Are nothing, so they have no real option to do anything about Taliban anyway.

Bernd 08/27/2021 (Fri) 17:39:48 [Preview] No.44847 del
He has his embarrassing moments but in general he seems functioning ok. Besides I suspect that some most notably: the "salute the marines" videos are edits.

>state it in any article
Heh, I noticed that in the TACC reports.
>must be at least partially explained
Where a will is, a way will be found.
>that list
Can that be read somewhere?
>Are nothing, so they have no real option to do anything
Is it an issue?
Or liek the Taliban is too strong willed and independent to be puppets in that Shanghai Coop?

Bernd 08/27/2021 (Fri) 18:45:04 [Preview] No.44848 del
>>that list
>Can that be read somewhere?

There are several lists, but I forgot what lists require specific mark, and what not. Only in Russian though:


There is also a list of "forbidden materials" that is pretty fun to read, because sometimes it contains things like "file New Video 2.mp4" or such (our judges aren't really bright people): https://minjust.gov.ru/ru/extremist-materials/

>Or liek the Taliban is too strong willed and independent to be puppets in that Shanghai Coop?

Taliban surely will conform to Chinese opinion, and take in account Russian and Pakistani ones. It is hard to predict who will be more influential there though. Maybe even USA/EU will try to influence it.
At least this bombing already paints Taliban as victims of terror who needs help, not confrontation.

Bernd 08/28/2021 (Sat) 01:17:31 [Preview] No.44850 del
>When all else fails press Turkey button. Fixes everything!
Why does Turkey get stuck being the foreign invasion endgame boss? Turkey should string the negotiations along to get the highest offer for services and subcontract it all out to someone else. I hear Iran has way too many idle Syrian mercenaries. Or maybe ...?
Nah. Now is the time to hand the tarmac over to some Chinese paratroopers and call it a day.

Bernd 08/28/2021 (Sat) 14:40:45 [Preview] No.44851 del
First link seems to me as if were the bans by federal institutions (the supreme court and military courts), while the second are more local and might be not bounding in other oblasts or even settlements.
I scrolled down and saw the items in the list numbers 100. Wow, I thought, round 100? Then I saw it goes on 52 pages. Throw a couple in DeepL, "Life of Mehmet al-Ali" and such titles sounding like biographies and "history of Rus". I see the reason behind some ban, but I also consider them pointless, typically the Islamic material. In and about Russia there are organizations and groups that could cause real trouble for the Russian authorities and can take lives of unrelated civilians too - it's not liek Hungary where essentially in that sense everyone is harmless so no biggie if stuff doesn't get banned - but these groups won't give a shit if such works are on a ban list, or gain even more elan and support if people gets harassed because of those works.
>it contains things like "file New Video 2.mp4" or such (our judges aren't really bright people)
Judges are similar to any other laborer. They do their shift, go shopping, go home, watch telly, sleep, then rinse and repeat. Many things fall way off to their horizon of knowledge, and what they know the world beyond work is highly depends on the individual.
Oh I noticed some descriptive notes like "the speech that starts with [AB line] and ends with the words of [XYZ words]", so sometimes they try to make it more precise, probably due to the lack of title or something.

>Maybe even USA/EU will try to influence it.
The agreement to keep the airport's vicinity safe, and the talks with Turkey show that the relation between the Taliban and NATO isn't closed and can evolve to anything. So yeah, who knows.
>At least this bombing already paints Taliban as victims of terror who needs help, not confrontation.
I concur, if media wants that they can make a friendly spin on the narration of the situation in Afghanistan. Here left-liberal media is still barking at them, but Fidesz-media is more friendly, and now Macron is pointing at ISIS as the great danger.

Bernd 08/28/2021 (Sat) 14:47:56 [Preview] No.44852 del
I'm not sure what you mean. But Turkey has ambitions an grabs any chance to show she's relevant, and gain more prestige by acting that everything is her business.
I think a parallel can be drawn between the interwar Italy and contemporary Turkey to some extent. Both with great imperial past reaching close and far creating a new empire from bits and pieces.

Bernd 08/28/2021 (Sat) 16:07:27 [Preview] No.44854 del
Turks are right to seize opportunity, and they have plenty of opportunities to pursue. In my view Afghanistan is no opportunity for anything involving personal involvement by Turkey. I think they're being played.
On the other hand, it could be an opportunity but only if Turkey plays the other players into wading in so the Turks can better concentrate on all the other stuff going on right around them.

Bernd 08/28/2021 (Sat) 17:41:09 [Preview] No.44855 del
For now it's just talks.
Turkey with promoting pan-Turanism try to reach into Central Asia towards the *stans (plus the Turkic minorities of Afghanistan). Maybe if they "have" an airport in the neighbourhood that would raise their influence. Plus with a secure base of operation there Turkish companies gain an important infrastructure if they want to establish themselves in the country. Also if Turkey controls that airport, every other nation (and their companies) who wants to use it has to be friendly with the Turks.
Afghanistan has many natural resources waiting to be extracted, which will mean income to the country which means money they'll spend which means they are an untapped market. They'll need mining companies, maybe processing plants, factories. Resources can be exported as raw materials, but it is more profitable if goods are made out of them first. Taliban has money for anything? Not really, everything will need foreign investors, they can be another China at this point.
They have untrained laborers, so first only basic manufacturing can be started there (or such automation that only needs a chimp to push a button), but as income trickles in and education rises, the production can be more complex. Then the workers will earn more money and they can be turned into consumers. Etc.
If Turkey has a foothold and a major air bridge, it can prove a huge advantage on the long run.

Bernd 08/28/2021 (Sat) 20:58:15 [Preview] No.44856 del
>Turks are right to seize opportunity
Well, sure, like anyone else
>and they have plenty of opportunities to pursue.
Given their current Syria, Iraq, and Libya incursions I think they are overdoing it. The Aleppo and now Idlib business in particular I disapprove of. But I do like watching the kerfuffle when they openly countersignal their stuck-up NATO partners kek
But wait a minute, you sound as if Turkey wasn't already operating the airport during the occupation
I thought they were already in charge of it and the talks were about renewal of the deal (maybe including recognition of new government)

Bernd 08/29/2021 (Sun) 10:06:46 [Preview] No.44857 del
Maybe I should disable Torposting. Starting to look really weird.

Bernd 08/29/2021 (Sun) 19:00:28 [Preview] No.44858 del
>all the other stuff going on right around them.
>they are overdoing it.
Maybe they would be better off without the Afghan adventure, but I can't judge what Turkey can bear.

>But wait a minute, you sound as if Turkey wasn't already operating the airport during the occupation
If you have source on the Turkish mission, their tasks and the timeframe it would be cool if you could share.
I know they did/do airport management, similar to us, but I think it's more of a flight control thing. I'm not exactly sure what our soldiers did, the list I found earlier and posted here somewhere above or in the previous thread is vague enough.

Bernd 08/30/2021 (Mon) 19:49:45 [Preview] No.44861 del
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In the video an opinion was voiced, that the Taliban will fail because Taliban and ISIS ideologically are very close, but since the Taliban has to compromise their principles and turn pragmatic since they are wishing to govern in Afghanistan, they will lose support while ISIS will gain more power as more and more people start to back them.
I think this could lead to an interesting scenario where the Taliban could reach out to their former enemies, but in this case it can be demanded from them to compromise more and more. They're gonna have to walk the razor's edge.

About the Belt and Road Initiative of China and recent plans. Not read yet, just put this here so won't forget.
Also Digital Silk Road

Bernd 09/01/2021 (Wed) 16:47:49 [Preview] No.44869 del
Al Jazeera has that type of article which gets refreshed "minute-by-minute" (not sure how that format is called, it's like a thread) about Afghanistan. This links should open that up:
It contains a piece:
>US Treasury issued new licence to ease flow of aid in Afghanistan
Basically says there's a paradox in US treatment of Afghanistan, they allow to send aid, while embargoing the country at the same time.
Among the bit fresher news:
>The US froze nearly $9.5bn in assets belonging to the Afghan central bank last month.
As another article posted here stated they have most of the gold of Afghanistan, and it is expected to be frozen by the US.
Ofc articles (in other media outlets too, for example Hungarian ones) say Afghan economy is on the brink of collapse, while humanitarian crisis looms.
So. How about not sending them aid, just give them what's theirs?

Another interesting morsel:
>In Jalalabad, ‘life continues as normal’
>“We spoke to some people and they said it is difficult to figure out what the future holds for them, but so far, they are satisfied about the situation in the streets because there are no more mobile snatching, no more kidnappings, the crime rate is low,” he added.
Law and order can be achieved.

Dutch bernd Bernd 09/01/2021 (Wed) 21:49:24 [Preview] No.44875 del
>In the video an opinion was voiced, that the Taliban will fail because Taliban and ISIS ideologically are very close, but since the Taliban has to compromise their principles and turn pragmatic since they are wishing to govern in Afghanistan, they will lose support while ISIS will gain more power as more and more people start to back them.

It's don't. I don't think anybody on earth likes isis at this point

Bernd 09/02/2021 (Thu) 04:17:38 [Preview] No.44887 del
>Basically says there's a paradox in US treatment of Afghanistan, they allow to send aid, while embargoing the country at the same time.
something is broken inside the usg
they have been doing such apparently contradictory things a lot this year, like inviting china for the alaska diplomatic meeting and receiving them with the announcement of more economic sanctions
the same with russia, biden calls putin during a period of cold relations, they talk it up in the media as a step in thawing the relationship and the next day another department announces more economic sanctions against nordstream 2 companies and sovereign bonds of i don't remember what russian national fund
pretty bizarre
i don't know, it's like there are a bunch of government groups that don't talk to each other or something

Bernd 09/03/2021 (Fri) 11:14:29 [Preview] No.44894 del
>the same with russia, biden calls putin during a period of cold relations, they talk it up in the media as a step in thawing the relationship and the next day another department announces more economic sanctions against nordstream 2

It is just realpolitik. US basically allowed NS2 to build, lifting all real sanctions. New sanctions are joke, they are used to have some political continuity in eyes of commoner, i.e. "look, we still against it". There must be some action from Russian side as part of deal, but we don't know terms. It is hard to imagine that US would easily allow that project without requiring some profit to itself.

Bernd 09/06/2021 (Mon) 13:22:29 [Preview] No.44932 del
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Probably fighting is still going on, but for now the Taliban has the upper hand, they already claimed victory - which could be early propaganda maneuver, and might prove false.
The whereabouts of Massoud, the leader of the NRF (National Resistance Front, the holdouts in Panjshir), is unkown. Earlier they said they surrounded some hundreds of Taliban soldier. Massoud also called for national uprising and before that declared he is ready for peace talk and settle. Not entirely sure what the NRF want, I read about inclusive government (include all ethnicities), and semi-autonomy for Panjshir. Maybe neither, maybe both, maybe some other stuff are their goals.
Taliban is also chasing ISIS, arresting peeps.
New talks with Germany about aid and investment.

Bernd 09/06/2021 (Mon) 16:22:46 [Preview] No.44933 del
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From what I gather they raised the flag in the capital (near the entrance to the valley) and called it a day.
They do control all provincial capitals now, I guess...

>Ahmad Massoud has released a 19 minute audio in which he confirms bombardment by Pakistan & Taliban in Panjshir which killed Fahim and many of Massoud’s family members. He asks Afghans to protest against Taliban. Resistance won’t stop. Asks international community for support. While expressing condolences to the martyrs in Panjshir, Ahmad Massoud says that Pakistan directly attacked Afghans in Panjshir and international community watched silently. Massoud says he won’t give up until his last drop of blood. Says, Taliban savages attacking with Pak help. Massoud: Taliban proved they haven’t changed. Talibs are not Afghans, they are outsiders and work for outsiders, and want to keep Afghanistan isolated from the rest of the world. All Afghans should join the resistance in any form or way possible. Resistance is still alive.

>TB flag raised in Panjshir center. Panjsher is fully under of TB

Bernd 09/06/2021 (Mon) 16:48:52 [Preview] No.44934 del
>they raised the flag in the capital (near the entrance to the valley) and called it a day.
The Taliban is pressed to show they are in control and form a government. They can employ the Soviet and USian strategy to hold the important settlements, let the guerillas hide in the mountains and pretend towards the world that everything is all right, while they try to root out the resistance.
Not having perfect peace there isn't a big deal (for now), what they need is a stronger voice in the foreign media than NRF.
>Pakistan & Taliban
>Pakistan directly attacked
Getting foreign help also one step closer to recognition for the Taliban.

Also it would be interesting to see how the fights are going. Both sides are familiar (experts) of that type of warfare.

Coup d'état... Bernd 09/06/2021 (Mon) 20:34:27 [Preview] No.44937 del
...in Guinea
The events a bit blurry, not sure the actual sequence, but...
On Sunday (Sept 5th), news appeared of a military rebellion east of Conakry, the capital of Guinea, Kaloum - the part of town where the presidential palace and most of the ministries are located - was sealed off. Heavy gunfire could be heard.
On state tv, colonel Mamadi Doumbouya appeared, the leader of the special forces and he addressed the nation in his speech. He told the viewers, it's time to unite, end the government mismanagement, the poverty and the corruption; he said as a soldier it's their duty to save the country, and they'll no longer entrust it to one man but to the people. The whole appearance gave the impression of a putsch.
Apparently they arrested President Alpha Conde, promised to change the politics, and introduced nationwide curfew. Today they lifted the curfew in mining areas, but barred the officials from leaving the country.
As of now other branches of the army are silent.

Conde was elected in 2010 as President during the first democratic election of the country, then re-elected in 2015. Originally a two-term limit was in effect, but in March last year, they changed the constitution that a president can serve three terms. Then in October Conde was re-elected the third time.
Since then protests were going on, the demonstrators clashed with security forces, dozens died, hundreds were arrested, opposition leaders as well.
Guinea isn't in a bad situation economically. She's rich in iron ore, gold, diamond, and has the world's largest reserves of bauxite. This ensured economic growth but as usual in African countries, the wealth does not trickle down, poverty and corruption goes hand in hand.

Bernd 09/07/2021 (Tue) 03:40:02 [Preview] No.44938 del
>accusing pakis
>"talibs are not afghans"
>shilling for muh "resistance"
lmao do you even geopolitics

cont. Bernd 09/07/2021 (Tue) 07:42:25 [Preview] No.44939 del
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The situation and script resembles to the recent Mali coup, where a questionable election was followed by civilian discontent and culminated in a coup done by officers (whom appeared in the media addressing the nation and the world), claiming to reform the political system and end the corruption of the previous regime.
Similarly the international reaction was the same: condemnation of the coup, demands to release the President and return to constitutional practices, and finally and most importantly: doing largely nothing.
Doumbouya's speech (well, what they wrote on Al Jazeera and translated from his telly appearance) has a couple of noteworthy points. First as they pointed out the reasons of their actions, the corruption of the leading politicians and the system. Their basis of the actions is the duty they were entrusted with. They also show themselves as committed to three values: unity, patriotism, and democracy.

I wonder what happened since then in Mali, if the coupists done what they promised - reshuffling the political deck and hold a new election -, or went on in a different direction, because what will happen in Guinea, it will follow similar path to Mali's, as it did up till now.

Bernd 09/07/2021 (Tue) 15:56:17 [Preview] No.44942 del
The Taliban announced the new (caretakes) government and named several ministers, whom are all Taliban. It is not known if this cabinet will include non-Talibans yet.
The PM is Mohammad Hasan Akhund. He is the chief of the Taliban leadership council, for 20 years now, the Rehbari Shura, he is a founder of the movement, and the Emir since 2016. During the previous rule of the Taliban he served as foreign minister and deputy PM. Now he unifies the position of the head of state and the head of government.

Other names can be found here for example:

Bernd 09/07/2021 (Tue) 16:48:37 [Preview] No.44943 del
This guy is the Emir: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hibatullah_Akhundzada
I think I made a mistake, the Mullah title of Mohammad Hasan Akhund confused me I think. Even the second photo shows Hibatullah Akhundzada. Weird because this guy's pops is called Muhammad Akhund.

Bernd 10/05/2021 (Tue) 13:19:14 [Preview] No.45186 del
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Made a screenshot of nothing really happening.
Some bug hunt with attack planes against Islamic State ants in the desert. I'm sure it's very cost effective. But who knows.

Bernd 10/06/2021 (Wed) 08:45:21 [Preview] No.45189 del
Another thing I "really should": update meself on Mali, apparently things are habbening there.
So tensions grow with France. The civil war thingy is going on 8 years now, France unable (or lacks the will) to clench it. After the coup of August 2020 they even withdrew some troops. The interim government of Mali engaged in talks with that Russian private ("private"?) mercenary group, the Wagner, which we knew from Syria. They also received military supplies from Russia. This France did not like, and told Mali they should fight their own fight and don't rely on France. I'm sure this will prevent them seeking help elsewhere... Anyway now Mali also told France they do not approve to the tone Macron used.
Btw. This year in May another coup was done. Colonel Assimi Goita decided he's got enough of the bs of the first civilian interim government and put them aside, and now he installed a second one it seems.


I think chief problem is if Western powers aren't willing or able to defend their... "subjects", others who have better track records against ISIS and such will be invited and step in. Then Western govts can throw hissy fits, it will be their fault.
Apparently it's not the first time Russia helps out in Mali. Here's an article from late 2019 (in Portuguese):

Bernd 10/06/2021 (Wed) 15:00:29 [Preview] No.45190 del
Wagner are also operating in the Central African Republic and they were or are Operating in Mozambique and Sudan. I think that it's actually a fairly effective, low cost and low accountability method of projecting power. The problem with traditional military interventions is that they of course cost so much and if anybody is killed the operation can start to be scrutinised in the home country but Mercenaries don't require any of the expensive logistics and support of a traditional army and if they die well they were not part of the military they are just citizens doing their own thing of their own volition. Maybe France should establish such a mercenary force.

Interestingly Rwanda has also been sending armed forces around Africa to put down militant groups as well, they are on track to become a superpower before India and Brazil at this point.

Bernd 10/06/2021 (Wed) 15:08:33 [Preview] No.45191 del
Yeah, I noticed Wagner is at many places, I think wherever ISIS is or similar, they have a force operating there.
>Maybe France should establish such a mercenary force.
Originally the Foreign Legion was that. Noone cared about if those died. Even now they get the most exposed places, but it's different times now.
Supposedly the various cooperations of African states have peacekeeping forces, some countries are more active than others.
>they are on track to become a superpower before India and Brazil at this point.
Tell me more. What's up with Rwanda?

Bernd 10/09/2021 (Sat) 10:48:12 [Preview] No.45234 del
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Tension intensifies between Mali and France. Mali PM uses harsh words criticizing their post-colonial overlord, I assume to place pressure on France to keep (more) troops there. (This article uses RT as a source much. Which means rock solid proofs ofc, no bias.)

Some back and forth between the leading politicians of the two countries. Macron really can summarize the essence.

Bernd 10/09/2021 (Sat) 15:34:00 [Preview] No.45240 del
>What's up with Rwanda?
It's been the Prussia of Africa for a few decades, famous for military exploits in the Congo such as this:

Bernd 10/09/2021 (Sat) 16:13:20 [Preview] No.45241 del
Sounds like a coup attempt from the outside.
>DR Congo
Always reminds me of Dr Alban.

Bernd 10/22/2021 (Fri) 09:12:55 [Preview] No.45347 del
The Franco-Malian spat continues.
If France do not send more help, Mali needs to negotiate with Al Qaeda, at least.
>Another HCI official said no talks had yet taken place.
For now it sounds like another tool to pressure France. It tries to show Mali has other options. They even have precedent to back it up:
>The HCI mediated talks in central Mali’s Niono Circle area – quietly backed by national authorities – that led to a peace deal in March between JNIM fighters and traditional hunters that oppose them.
HCI = High Islamic Council; created in 2002, to coordinate, mediate between religious groups, it seems.

Bernd 10/23/2021 (Sat) 13:53:00 [Preview] No.45358 del
The govt. of Mali denied they entrusted anyone to go and negotiate. Essentially the previous article said, that nothing happened yet, but they felt the need to make an official statement, after they heard about the news from the media. I assume their local media. I can't really go and check that out because it's all French to me.

Dutch bernd Bernd 10/23/2021 (Sat) 22:53:07 [Preview] No.45360 del
>If France do not send more help, Mali needs to negotiate with Al Qaeda, at least.

I feel liek that's the plan France has for the long term. Wear Mali out internally so they get a even worse owner and then they intervene and present themselves as "saviours" or something

sage Bernd 10/23/2021 (Sat) 23:01:31 [Preview] No.45362 del
>I'm showing as a bong now


Coup in Sudan Bernd 10/25/2021 (Mon) 18:32:22 [Preview] No.45393 del
In 2019 April Omar Al-Bashir, who was the leader of Sudan for three decades, was removed by a coup d'etat. In the following month a military-civilian joint government took over, with the promise of an election in 2023. Abdalla Hamdok became the PM (who served in various positions in the bureaucracy, was a minister too).
Now the military faction took the civilian leaders into custody (including Hamdok), monopolizing the power for themselves. There were some protests demanding each side to take over, essentially.
Additional information:
- before Al-Bashir was deposed by the armed forces, protesters also demanded them doing something.
- in September a coup attempt was done by the military, they just botched it
- internationally the coup was condemned and everyone expressed their deepest concern as usual


Bernd 10/25/2021 (Mon) 18:33:12 [Preview] No.45394 del
Oh, the coup happened today.

Mali slavery Bernd 10/29/2021 (Fri) 19:13:40 [Preview] No.45415 del
Another detail about Mali.
In the Sahel region hereditary slavery (descent-based or caste-based slavery as they call it) is still alive and kicking. The French abolished the practice of slavery on their colonies, but they were lenient about domestic slavery, and after they left, while most states around enacted laws against the practice, Mali did not.
At certain regions the society is divided by birth to noble and slave caste (the slave status is inherited via the mother), and nobles enjoy full rights and privileges, while slaves have to live among certain restrictions (like can't marry outside their caste, can't own land, they have to prepare meals for the nobles, etc.), they also often get beaten and humiliated publicly. Sometimes they even get murdered.
It's a socially accepted norm by some hundreds of thousands of people, the nobles even say it's voluntarily. Since who doesn't want to be a slave he can move, they don't tied to the land, but I can see how those people who knows nothing father than the border of their village have a hard time to leave everything behind. They even use ostracism, and banishment as a form of punishment!
But many tens of thousands of people are against the practice, and I assume as they raise awareness, the more supporters they get. And the question is raised in international media, and in the UN too.
One thing the question is interesting related to the conflict: the oppressed and discontent masses are easily influenced by radical ideas, and are prime recruiting materials of groups like Al Qaeda.

Bernd 11/24/2021 (Wed) 15:07:10 [Preview] No.45661 del
Anyone following the Tigray War? Last time it was on the news the government lost Dessie and it keeps losing more and more. It'd still take a while for the Tigrayans and Oromo to reach the capital, though, unless there's a sudden collapse as in Afghanistan. Tigrayans are pushing south on a salient and have their left and right flanks exposed. The left flank, towards Afar, seems irrelevant because of topography and low population density, but the right flank faces the Amhara and an offensive against the salient could be dangerous. There's also the possibility of a new Eritrean offensive against the Tigrayan heartland; that depends on the politics of Eritrean involvement. Also notable is that land connection between the capital and the Amhara heartland is apparently cut off by Oromo insurgents. From their performance at war and in the past decades, the Tigrayans seem to have the most disciplined troops and most cohesive home front.

I'm really wondering about the geopolitics of this war. It seems Egypt and Sudan oppose the Ethiopian government.

Bernd 11/24/2021 (Wed) 15:44:05 [Preview] No.45662 del
>Anyone following... ?
Nod really, but I see it mentioned on Al Jazeera, I could familiarize meself with the situation.
It is a difficult terrain for sure, favouring defence. Following the roads is mandatory, those were established along the routes that are passable in the first place.
Sudan and Egypt has its own problems, especially Sudan, I believe Egypt is more calm. But they could be bridges for foreign support to arrive in various forms.

Bernd 11/24/2021 (Wed) 20:21:14 [Preview] No.45664 del
Hmm. What I don't understand how the Tigrayans could dominated the 1991-2018 era. 5% of the population, from a semi-arid area.
And even know their army provides results.

Bernd 11/25/2021 (Thu) 02:30:38 [Preview] No.45672 del
I was following a bit on twitter but can't really keep up with everything tbh

this guy runs a map & compiles a tweet feed, decent info imo


Bernd 11/25/2021 (Thu) 08:14:43 [Preview] No.45675 del
Right now I think the answer for this >>45664 is: economical factors. I have to look it up.

Also I'm really curious how a battle looks like there.

More also. If I understand correctly this conflict had two phases for now. In the first, the Tigrayans (who are not just Tigrayans but other folks, I think I'm gonna use the designation as the people who live in that region, regardless of ethnicity) were pummeled, and they conducted guerilla warfare, and the second when they gathered enough strength to step onto the battle field, forced out the govt. troops, and initiated their own offensive.
In short:
1. asymmetrical phase
2. conventional phase
These ofc can be divided further.

From the top of my head three conflicts with similar characteristics:
The campaigns against Scotland by Longshanks, the story of William Wallace, and Bruce and all that.
The Napoleonic War in Iberia, locals fighting as guerillas then Wellington arrived.
Vietnam has parallels with the Cong and the NVA both engaging with South and their allies.

Bernd 11/25/2021 (Thu) 22:00:44 [Preview] No.45679 del
Tigrayans also have a tradition of doing that - btfoing everyone.
This is their third Woyane already.

Bernd 11/27/2021 (Sat) 14:30:01 [Preview] No.45691 del
Apparently they also are the kernel of the Ethiopian statehood. Tigray and Eritrea should be one country.

Bernd 11/27/2021 (Sat) 17:16:48 [Preview] No.45693 del
>Tigray and Eritrea should be one country.
Eh, they have a pretty long separate history – Medri Bahri was established as one of the successor states, north of Mareb river, after dissolution of kingdom of Axum, & remained a separate state (apart for a short period when it was joined to the rest under Zara Yaqob) all the way until late 19th century (and soon later it was conquered by the Italians again to be separate until end of WW2)

Bernd 12/01/2021 (Wed) 15:26:42 [Preview] No.45736 del
Scratched the topic of what kinda forces are participating in the battles of Ethiopia's Tigray War, the magnitude of the fighting.
On eritreahub.org I found such snippets as:
February 11-15, 2021 [...] Ethiopia’s 11th division was “destroyed” and the 32nd division was “annihilated”.
June 17-19, 2021 [...] In one battle, 3,700 soldiers of the Ethiopian army’s 11th division engaged the rebels and after three days of fighting, 100 soldiers had been killed and 900 captured, including the government troops’ commanding officer.
June 28, 2021 [...] Alex de Waal, executive director of the World Peace Foundation of Boston, said that of 20 Ethiopian federal army divisions, “seven have been completely destroyed, three are in a shambles”.
A former head of the INSA, Ethiopia’s intelligence agency, said two thirds of Ethiopia’s forces, amounting to around seven divisions, had been killed, wounded or captured within one week of the start of “Operation Alula”.
July 16, 2021 [...] Three Ethiopian regions sent soldiers to reinforce the national military and Amhara’s troops in their fight against the Tigrayan rebels
July 19-23, 2021 [...] it was reported that the Ethiopian 23rd division had been destroyed, while the operational commander of the Ethiopian military’s Eastern Command, Colonel Awel Yassin, had been captured

Also it seems the participants has regular troops, and militias.

Bernd 12/01/2021 (Wed) 17:10:11 [Preview] No.45738 del
(1.19 MB 1032x706 Yemen 2021 12 01.png)
From that feed it seems the Ethiopian government is recovering. In the Afar front a Tigrayan offensive was beaten back, it's relevant because of the road junction to Djibouti but I doubt the federal forces can attack from Afar into occupied Amhara territory, the topography is against them. Of greater concern is the attack on the salient from the west, which can threaten the entire Tigrayan offensive.

Checking up on Yemen:

>As Houthi power has been growing since 2015, the UN-recognized Yemeni government has become increasingly fragile. The recent loss of additional territory to the Houthis, mass protests in Taiz, Aden, and Hadramout, and the falling currency in government-controlled provinces have dealt it a triple blow.

So nothing really new.

Bernd 12/01/2021 (Wed) 18:01:40 [Preview] No.45739 del
Two or three roads that lead into Tigray controlled area from Afar. Those could be easily closed down. I dunno if they have any reason to go into Afar, their target should be Addis Abeba. But in the place of Tigrayans I wouldn't rely on static defense towards them, but would try to move forward, and build up defensive positions behind as the front progress forward. So I would continuously put some pressure there, which would also occupy enemy forces, tie them down, and don't allow to regroup them on the front towards the capital.

Last time I heard Saudis lost space and control. Or something like that.

Bernd 12/07/2021 (Tue) 20:07:04 [Preview] No.45785 del

Bernd 12/09/2021 (Thu) 18:55:29 [Preview] No.45797 del
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(146.99 KB 201x178 neger-template.png)
>Operation for National Unity in Diversity
I like how they roll.

Btw, here's short heda neger for template in case someone wants to make more. I dunno why it did not gain more attention, and status.

Bernd 12/10/2021 (Fri) 03:27:14 [Preview] No.45800 del
>Btw, here's short heda neger for template in case someone wants to make more. I dunno why it did not gain more attention, and status.

Mayb thin out the outer lines a lil bit and make the eyes a lil bigger. Image macros usually have really good line weight in them that's how they get shared better and inadvertadly get posted on reddit and facebook after they stop being funny or good. Such is the cycle of meme life

Bernd 12/10/2021 (Fri) 03:37:57 [Preview] No.45806 del
Liek, apu is a gud example of what Im trying to say.

Bernd 12/10/2021 (Fri) 19:44:09 [Preview] No.45827 del
This is the "Syria thread" but I think no one mentioned that Izrael is basically waging a one-sided war against them. Almost every week they bomb positions in Syria, which can't respond. They do this usually by shooting missiles from around the Syrian border, after having invaded Lebanese airspace, which can't respond either. IIRC they are technically in a state of war because a peace treaty was not signed since the Golan territories in Syria were annexed by Izrael. However, the jews say that their attacks (which they spell "defence") are aimed at Hezbollah and Iranian militias in Syria (which indeed are or have been around and have been helping the govt fight back rebels), and pretend that that somehow excuses or justify their actions.

In the latest case they bombed some containers in a Syrian port, which allegedly contained weapons/munitions shipped from Iran. About a week earlier some of their missiles killed or injured ~15 syrians, 3 of which civilians.

(I thought this site had died about a month ago. It just the onion that was down?)

Bernd 12/10/2021 (Fri) 20:29:27 [Preview] No.45831 del
It's more liek a current conflicts all around the globe/third world thread, but I see your point.
I think we noted at least on one occasion Israel combat plane fly-ins. But as you said it's quite common for them to shoot shit inside Syria, just like any other armed activity that's going about, from shelling south Idlib by SAA, or Turkish attacks on YPG.
If you wish, feel free to collect a couple of notable occasions, similarly to what you mentioned. I would be curious of their real impact on... well, anything. I suspect that's what really hard to peel out of the news.

Bernd 12/10/2021 (Fri) 20:31:09 [Preview] No.45832 del
>(I thought this site had died about a month ago. It just the onion that was down?)
I think onion was down for a bit, and were occasional outages for the whole site. But nothing that lasted long (I think longest was a couple of hours downtime).

Bernd 12/18/2021 (Sat) 17:34:02 [Preview] No.45875 del
What I find notable in the government recapture of Dessie is the offensive coming from Afar. I never expected anything from that direction as the topography is easy to defend. Tigrayan commanders must've made a major blunder. Or perhaps they're just overstretched, the government has comparatively limitless manpower after all. It won't be long until Tigray itself is once again in danger. Even if Tigrayans hold off the government, they won't be able to afford conventional attrition warfare.

It happens so regularly and for so long that I've never bothered to post about it here.

Bernd 12/19/2021 (Sun) 20:31:36 [Preview] No.45887 del
They have much more manpower but new troops are green troops.
Maybe different regions, different ethnicities could be turned on each other, or just turn off the support from them. And Tigrayans can count on other groups supporting them, like the Oromos.
Also foreign influence (which I don't know about) can keep the war going, or closing it quick, depending on interests.

Bernd 12/19/2021 (Sun) 23:03:35 [Preview] No.45890 del
Perhaps important to point out: Ethiopian army has drones.
(Erdogan has been bragging about selling drones in Africa recently as well)

Bernd 12/20/2021 (Mon) 21:00:14 [Preview] No.45906 del
>Wing Loong drones

Sounds like that BBC pidgin news. Fits African warfare very well.

Bernd 12/30/2021 (Thu) 10:39:39 [Preview] No.45990 del
They bombed a Syrian port again. Actually, I think it was the same as this >>45827
"Material losses" reported, several containers or depots destroyed

Bernd 01/07/2022 (Fri) 20:50:25 [Preview] No.46072 del
With the previously mentioned Russian Equipment came Russian troops to train the Malians to use that equipment. And maybe do more. It is unknown how are there and what other tasks they have. French withdraw from Timbuktu and the Russians deployed there. Well there ain't many places this stuff can be done. I checked couple others sites, it seems like AlJazeera they work from Reuters.

Bernd 01/07/2022 (Fri) 20:55:37 [Preview] No.46073 del
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Bernd 01/08/2022 (Sat) 21:29:10 [Preview] No.46078 del
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>Russian troops

Al Jazeera uses term "Russian troops" very liberally, so reader may think that there are real Russian Army or at least some official entity. But looks like it is just a mercenary group, who is even less related to official Russian state than Blackwater (or how it is called now) to USA.

These guys are completely illegal in Russia in terms of law, because being mercenary in Russia is a crime. But of course these mercenaries aren't mercenaries, and they don't even exist, we all know it.

>what other tasks they have

Foreigners are better in such conflicts because they more loyal than locals who always have interests in country. Foreigners also don't care about local population, so may do anything that locals wouldn't. So, I guess tasks are mostly about security of local leaders and small special operations.

Bernd 01/09/2022 (Sun) 08:18:47 [Preview] No.46086 del
>Al Jazeera uses term "Russian troops" very liberally, so reader may think that there are real Russian Army or at least some official entity.
It seems they follow Reuters narration. When they refers to source as "news agency" they mean Reuters.
I still think the govt. of Mali (or whoever is in control now, colonel Goita) also profits from dress the situation as some kind of diplomatic courtship on behalf of Russia. They might try to show they have options besides the French to defend the country.
>But of course these mercenaries aren't mercenaries, and they don't even exist, we all know it.
And ofc they aren't in Russia. In Mali it's perfectly legal.

Bernd 01/09/2022 (Sun) 13:09:57 [Preview] No.46088 del
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>And ofc they aren't in Russia. In Mali it's perfectly legal.

Technically country doesn't matter - if someone would engage in mercenary activity and this will be found in Russia, he will be jailed. It requires police investigation and criminal trial. Although everyone understand what happens of course and there will be no trials.

>I still think the govt. of Mali (or whoever is in control now, colonel Goita) also profits from dress the situation as some kind of diplomatic courtship on behalf of Russia. They might try to show they have options besides the French to defend the country.

It is good for every party except French. This is their own fault though, why do they leave?

Bernd 01/18/2022 (Tue) 21:14:31 [Preview] No.46148 del
So as I mentioned this >>46100 website published many articles worthy of interest. There are two about Syrian war, one from 2020 and another from 2021.

The first one is notable for two reasons. While most of the stuff there are commonly discussed on imageboards (here too), the author points out on the geopolitical side of the issue, that Syria is the last country in the Mediterranean that not under the influence of the NATO/US. And we know from elsewhere the importance of the region in Anglo global domination and imperialism. The other thing is the role of Western "NATO-compliant" media, and the luck that telecommunication services in our day and age can provide with counterbalance.
It is also nice to see some links to documentaries towards the bottom of the page.
The second article gives more details.
I've yet to check the sources the author worked from, but I see quite various stuff.
Well, his is an opinion too, Bernd can decide.


Bernd 01/21/2022 (Fri) 20:22:06 [Preview] No.46177 del
Syria got a bit of snow. Newspapers publishing articles how refugees suffer and at least one child died due to the snowstorm. I wonder if it was for the snowstorm, or during it. What is the mortality rate of kids in refugee camps? Or in Syria in general?
Couple more photos:

Also in Norway diplomats of various leading countries (US, UK, several EU members) is having a sitdown with the Taliban. Not because they acknowledge their legitimacy ofc. But it is a clear acknowledgement who holds the power, and they can't do shit about it. Diplomatic forked tongues.

Dutch bernd Bernd 01/22/2022 (Sat) 00:31:51 [Preview] No.46180 del
Snow in the middle east? Never seen that

Bernd 01/22/2022 (Sat) 08:00:18 [Preview] No.46189 del
It's not the most prominent feature but happens, even in the south towards Jordan, there's a mountain that gets snow. I think in the northwest where the camp is supposedly located these articles talk about should be somewhere on the southern legs of the slopes leading up to the ranges in Anatolia.

Bernd 01/23/2022 (Sun) 10:45:51 [Preview] No.46195 del
>This is their own fault though, why do they leave?
But maybe they see that they don't lose much influence in Mali anyway. I dunno.

Apparently it is legal here to form private mercenary outfit.
According to the article they are looking for recruits with "professional past" as policeman and prison guards... No soldier profession is mentioned. For now about a thousand men expressed their interest, the offered wage is $3-5000, the employing company is a private security company based "somewhere in the emirates". Besides gunners they are looking for medics, firefighters, IT and telecommunication professionals, translators, drivers, and two "online support" guys.
They're gonna get training first, and their name will be Falcons Forces.
I'm not sure why this thing was published in the papers, maybe it's a marketing technique?

Bernd 01/24/2022 (Mon) 15:19:05 [Preview] No.46203 del
>why do they leave?
I only read a little about it but: Mali is ex-colony, so there is some historical animosity regarding that; there has been rebel or terrorist groups in the country and there still is; Mali says that France did not help as much as it could, instead being more interested in ensuring a continued foothold in the country; current Mali govt is not Wect-approved democracy, actually it is a military govt; the mali military agreed previously to give way to a new govt after a certain period, but when the deadline was drawing closer they changed their minds and argued that legitimate elections could still not be held because parts of the country remain in control of rebels and the country should be stabilized first; france saw this as an opportunity to get a regime change by playing the "democracy vs. dictatorship" card; thus, together with the US they promoted and supported a resolution by a group of african countries called in english "ECOWAS" that imposed a pretty brutal economic and financial embargo on Mali; that soured relations all the more
Later Russia and China opposed such "sanctioning", which are often aimed at them, and blocked a proposal by the "western partners" to have the UNSC support the embargo too
I suppose this might also be a part of the general geostrategic economic pressure on china because I believe ethiopia, also at war, but not under a military govt., and where china has an important part of its african investments, was also pressured by ecowas (besides the us)

Bernd 01/24/2022 (Mon) 15:33:42 [Preview] No.46204 del
Thanks. Most of this I already understood but it is a nice short summary and interesting-looking links for my reading backlog
Interesting articles about the booomer-remover too

About that drawing: it could use a third panel with "mujahideen in afghanistan :heart: :heart: :love freedom fighter:", pic related (compare it with 2020's theatrics and hyperventilations stemming from the anti-Trump anti-Russian propaganda about Afghan "bounties", pic related)

Bernd 01/24/2022 (Mon) 20:55:47 [Preview] No.46205 del
I think that was a rhetorical.

Mali isn't just an ex-colony, but it's in Francafrique. They'll never get rid of the French. Goita will be long gone the French still will be there. They don't really withdraw they just left Timbuktu empty to do whatever. Actually I think Timbuktu itself is in the region where some Tuareg militia (earlier rebel until they had a deal with the govt.) controls. Plus the presence of Al Qaeda and ISIS (in part France being responsible for their existance) guarantees that Mali will need the French in the foreseeable future, noone other has the reach to deploy there (except the various African alliances, one of them you were talking about, and the UN, btw Hungarians also get deployed in Mali now, I have to search for the article).
I think France would do something if they had someone to install instead of Goita. But all in all he isn't worse than anyone else, and no other for the job that at least had the appearance that he can hold it. And then elections need to be held, all that democratic facade. It's more comfortable and less costly to give harsh or witty statements in the media by Macron.
I read in Nigeria the Chinese has strong presence, I guess they could project their power into Mali too.

Bernd 01/26/2022 (Wed) 22:10:03 [Preview] No.46210 del
I understand their line of thought on geopolitics but have to disagree that it's not a civil war. It is simultaneously a proxy war and civil war, as external powers are playing out their moves on the divisions within Syrian society. First of all, one has to wonder why the mainstream Syrian rebels are Islamists even though they were meant to be positively portrayed. There were real "moderate Syrian rebels" but they faded into irrelevancy. If the West had enough control over the rebels, they'd seek a primarily PR-friendly secular uprising. Having to ignore that Turkey and the Gulf states were supplying Islamists was a PR liability and doesn't make sense as an integral part of the strategy. There are two reasons it still happened: it's a lot easier to get international volunteers and funding for Islamist rebels, and the Islamists do have a power base in Syrian society, or else they wouldn't have become the mainstream lines of a long-lasting uprising.

See, for instance, East Ghouta, where the most powerful warlord was Zahran Alloush, son of a Salafist scholar and himself a Salafist religious leader who supported the Iraqi insurgents in the 2000s. He was a local and hailed from Douma, which is described as:
>a famously conservative city sometimes known as the City of Minarets. It is one of very few places in Syria and the wider Levant to be dominated by the Hanbali school of Sunni Islam, which predominates in Saudi Arabia, and this facilitated the spread of Salafi teachings.

But proper religious extremism is only one part of the rebellion's local base. Certainly there's also sectarianism but not theologically motivated, just plain ingroup and outgroup sentiment. And social class. Economic opportunity is concentrated in the hands of the nepotistic ruling clique and there's a lot of resentment. The war's geography does show a relation between religious demographics, socioeconomic standing and the location of loyalist and rebel strongholds. East Ghouta is a good example, as it's part of the poor suburbs which rapidly surrounded Damascus in the past decades.
>It was as if every driver of anti-regime resentment in the late Assad era had congregated on the outskirts of Damascus: political frustration, religious revanchism, rural dispossession, and downward social mobility.

Poverty in the big cities can be visualized through informal housing. Comparing a map of it in Damascus (ignoring darker red, which are later housing developments during the war) with another of the early uprising, there's a strong association. This is also notable in Aleppo's loyalist west and rebel east. There's a relationship between military control and political sentiment in an area. Although local populations lost faith in the rebels as time went on, the uprising was launched from the strongholds of anti-government sentiment and found support from them. This is why it was still a civil war.

Bernd 01/28/2022 (Fri) 16:08:17 [Preview] No.46230 del
>They don't really withdraw they just left Timbuktu empty to do whatever.
True, I should have started by saying that in fact they didn't really leave. They just vacated a few of their military bases

Meanwhile, the military of Burkina Faso (Mali's neighbour) has deposed the government citing familiar problems: incompetence in suppressing the jihadi incursions

Bernd 01/29/2022 (Sat) 20:42:09 [Preview] No.46247 del
>If the West had enough control over the rebels, they'd seek a primarily PR-friendly secular uprising.
>it's a lot easier to get international volunteers and funding for Islamist rebels, and the Islamists do have a power base in Syrian society
Yeah foreign powers have to work with what's available.
>sectarianism but not theologically motivated
Religious people can have other reasons to be disgruntled. Like they might live in poverty. And those in poverty can be incited to action.

All the Sahel region is the playground of "jihadis", various Al Qaeda and ISIS affiliates. I wonder of other countries follow Mali's and Burkina Faso's example. A Sahel Spring. Kinda reverse of the Mediterranean events where regimes rise which more "skeptical" towards the French influence and handling of the situation.
>Patriotic Movement for Safeguard and Restoration
Similarly poetic sounding name to the Malian movement.

This article says:
>The coup makers in Mali and Guinea, as well as in the Central African nation of Chad, where the military took power in April 2021, have all set up transitional governments with a mixture of military officers and civilians.
So essentially now we are at 4 countries in the Sahel Spring. Or maybe Sahel Autumn (AS - Arab Spring -> SA Sahel Autumn...)
Also I see a video in that page, "What's behind the coups in West Africa?", they say that was a coup attempt in Niger too.

Bernd 02/01/2022 (Tue) 22:22:20 [Preview] No.46289 del
>Religious people can have other reasons to be disgruntled. Like they might live in poverty. And those in poverty can be incited to action.
Many Sunnis probably aren't happy that the previously minor Alawites rose to a prominent position in society over the past century and would rather want that pesky outgroup to remain irrelevant. This ties into socioeconomic factors, as the poor can be mobilized against an outgroup disproportionately represented in the ruling class.

Bernd 02/08/2022 (Tue) 18:06:22 [Preview] No.46378 del
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There was anti-terror mission by US in Idlib to kill an ISIS commander
A heli was lost and there was heavy cross-fire. The objective was achieved but the situation ended with civilians dead including children and women
US claims the terrorist blew himself with a large explosive and that explosion caused the death of the civilians, but I've seen no proofs so far

Bernd 02/08/2022 (Tue) 19:23:52 [Preview] No.46379 del
What's notable is that both him and Baghdadi were found on Idlibistan not far from the Turkish border.

Bernd 02/08/2022 (Tue) 19:42:11 [Preview] No.46380 del
This one?
Well they casually dumped bin Laden's corpse into the ocean instead of showing it to anyone, so proofs aren't high priority I guess.

That Atma camp is literally on the Turkish border. It makes sense targeting them there, no need to reach far from secure area. I bet they botched the mission big time. Or maybe killing the bloke wasn't even the mission, just turned out to be after the fact.

Bernd 02/08/2022 (Tue) 19:43:11 [Preview] No.46381 del
Oh I posted the other screenshot because it's mildly interesting.

Bernd 02/10/2022 (Thu) 16:30:46 [Preview] No.46390 del
Are you suggesting Turkey may have been involved? In sheltering the man or in disclosing his location to the US, or both?
Yes. Now another happening: 2 attacks by Israel, one using the typical "invade lebanese airspace and fire missiles from there" modus operandi and the second using surface-launched missiles from around the occupied Golan regions. One of the attacks was announced as a retaliation against a syrian missile supposedly exploding over izrael's airspace (don't know if intercepted or not)
Syrian defenses managed to intercept a few but still 1 dead, 5 injured, and material damages (apparently they targeted AA defenses)
BTW, I read a Turkish media saying that the jews complained to russia that their EW was allegedly interfering with some GPS-related signals near their airspace. Supposedly this came after russia moved or re-activated some jamming defenses to cover a region near the recently twice-attacked Latakia port

Bernd 02/10/2022 (Thu) 22:29:44 [Preview] No.46396 del
>Are you suggesting Turkey may have been involved? In sheltering the man or in disclosing his location to the US, or both?
I have no clue, there are several possibilities.

Bernd 02/20/2022 (Sun) 08:31:20 [Preview] No.46503 del
France ends Operation Barkhane in Mali and pulls out the troops involved along with the EU Takuba Task Force (about 2400 + 600 men all in all). Not sure about the latter one but the French gets redeployed elsewhere in the Sahel, chiefly towards the Gulf of Guinea and in Niger where "terrorism" supposedly gained momentum - I think these involvements are also part of Barkhane, so the operation as a whole doesn't end. MINUSMA will fill some gaps (maybe they get reinforced with French troops...).
The withdrawal will be done gradually in the next half year or so.

It's reasonable to assume that Turkish agencies/forces were involved in the action. Maybe they just came across the intel, or maybe provided a whole support structure for the operation. I doubt they were left out of the loop anyway.

Bernd 02/20/2022 (Sun) 16:20:52 [Preview] No.46511 del
This past week more izraeli surface-to-surface missiles from the direction of golan, this time targeting the area of town called zakiya, south of damascus. "Material damages"

Bernd 02/22/2022 (Tue) 01:39:56 [Preview] No.46526 del
French "expert"'s notes on the situation of civilians in northeastern Syria, where he spent a month. Despite the SDF nominally being a multicultural force with a lot of Arab fighters, local Arabs and Assyrians resent the PYD-dominated rule. Furthermore, as reconstruction has been limited, there's even nostalgia for ISIS.

Bernd 02/22/2022 (Tue) 04:26:20 [Preview] No.46534 del
It's getting close to Live maps time for Ukraine as well, maybe they will even need their own thread.

The Russians moved military convoys right up to the border in the east and even into the Chernobyl area, Radiation does not scare Russians it seems. But they do seem to be positioning for a pincer to strike at Kiev which makes sense. I don't hold much hope for the Ukrainians, their equipment is too old particularly in regards to air and anti air, they were given western manpads but I don't know how much that will help. The fighting is practically going to be a textbook Russian excersise, it's exactly what they train for and what they want, large scale artillery barrages and air attacks on Ukrainian positions and then large scale mechanised and armoured manoeuvrers across open terrain and because of the aged Ukrainian assets they might struggle to deal with Russian air attacks on their own mechanised and armoured units which will also be operating in open country. So I think this will depend on how well entrenched the Ukrainians can get and also how much fighting will happen in built up areas, the Russians may struggle in close urban combat, indeed we have seen them struggle with it in the past. But in a war like this Russia may decide to simply cut any build up area off and move on, I don't know that they physically need to take Kiev or any other major city, so long as they can destroy enough of the Ukrainian army to enable them to operate in the countryside freely and occupy the majority of it, they should not need to actually fight for any major cities. Depending on what their objective actually is of course. These are just my thoughts anyway.

Bernd 02/22/2022 (Tue) 13:04:23 [Preview] No.46546 del
(54.59 KB 1080x600 smug-putin.jpg)
Putin recognized the independence of the two republics on the Donbas. I think they also moved troops in there but I have to follow this up, but would make sense. If Russia say those aren't Ukraine and they asked for help, then sending units isn't an attack against the Ukraine...

Bernd 02/22/2022 (Tue) 17:32:18 [Preview] No.46548 del
(135.32 KB 770x330 camper-boys.jpg)
Yeah, they're sending troops too into the freshly recognized Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics. They made a mutual help agreement which allows Russian troops in (and separatist troops into Russia), also they recognize each other's offical documents, and Russia will keep afloat the financial system of those (people's) republics.
As a response Germany halted the process around the Nord Stream 2. That will show it. Supposedly gas covers the third of Germany's energy needs, half of that is Russian. To make this own goal shows how impotent Germany (and the west) is in the situation. Besides I'm sure those green energy lobbists who stuffs the pockets of German politicians will get some fat projects from the state so they can boost energy production with their solutions.
Meanwhile oil prices crawl further up. Maybe Russia can lose on the sanctions, but they're gonna get moar for their oil and gas.

I still believe no armed conflict will arise between Russia and Ukraine. But after Russian troops get comfy in these new countries, they're gonna hold referendums about joining Russia, with ~90% "Yes, Of Course!", and Russia will get away with it like she did with Crimea.
In Hungarian news I read some exbert saying Russia will take the whole southern coast, with Odessa as the main target. I'm sure that would be a theoretical goal, but Russia could not do that without the backing of local population, and through an actual open war.
Anyway West will remain very concerned, but impotent in general. I find it likely that they don't even wanna do anything. What are those regions mean to them? Nothing. They are fine with their political maneuverings and stuffing their giant corpos.
Now supposedly the whole EU sanctions Russia. I'm not sure how this effects our dealings with Russia and our gas supplies. We buy it on reduced price so the hike in oil prices (and with that the gas) won't have that much effect, but can we still buy it? We also have some agreement on exporting goods to them.

Bernd 02/22/2022 (Tue) 17:37:06 [Preview] No.46549 del
(73.46 KB 680x520 cnn-no-troops-yet.png)
Found this on CNN in this thread:
I really hate this format because when they are done these short articles cannot be found anymore. Must serve a purpose ofc...

>maybe they will even need their own thread.
I think it's fine here, this thread is for 3rd world shithole conflicts... :^)

Bernd 02/22/2022 (Tue) 17:39:20 [Preview] No.46550 del
Here's map because why not.

Bernd 02/22/2022 (Tue) 19:31:44 [Preview] No.46551 del
Listening Biden's talking right now.
He just said he will go further than 2014 sanctions, and if Russia continues he will go further.
As promised they cut the business with banks. They sanction persons too.
Nord Stream 2 will not move further on behalf of Germany.
US will support Ukraine, and reinforce NATO allies.
They have no intention to fight Russia.

That lady who "speaks" the signlanguage for the deaf looks badass tho. She should be POTUS. I guess she has to be expressive with mimics too.

Bernd 02/22/2022 (Tue) 20:33:45 [Preview] No.46552 del
Oh wow, they told Ukrainian Foreign Minister that they won't actually help. Not that he did not know.

Bernd 02/22/2022 (Tue) 23:43:18 [Preview] No.46555 del
>They have no intention to fight Russia.
Which is why the latest "Ukrainian attacks" are probably false flags or random noise. The Ukrainians are not that stupid, they'd only push for a war right now if they had a guarantee of Western military participation. Only if they happened without the Russian military in a ready state positioned around Ukraine's flanks they could conceivably be deliberate high-level provocation.

So no war, but Putin has done something. I wonder if this was his intention from the beginning (he didn't do anything in the last war scare) or his reaction to the events that unfolded in the present crisis. Also wonder if Germany really intends to abandon their pipeline or will restart it as soon as tensions go away.

Bernd 02/23/2022 (Wed) 01:05:51 [Preview] No.46558 del
More build ups and even Hungary sent forces to the border. Suspicious...

At this point I think a war is inevitable. I don't see how this situation could be resolved in a way that all parties would agree to that would avoid this, Russia is quite unlikely to back down unless major concessions are made.

Ukraine would have to acknowledge the loss of Crimea and Donbass, demilitarise and declare neutrality and NATO would have to state that it would not accept Ukraine or expand further at all. This is not going to happen and so Ukraine is going to remain a threat to Russia and Russia is going to feel that it has to do something about that.

Bernd 02/23/2022 (Wed) 10:20:53 [Preview] No.46559 del
From the news I gather that Russia either sent troops or not. I think they sent some personnel and more material support, but actual Russian army units weren't moved. It seems the Western reaction came as a response to the recognition of the separatist states, and not to a Russian military action.
I think this first step Putin tests the waters, what would the West actually do.
They have legal basis to claim the whole Donetsk and Lugansk oblasts, the constitutions of the two People's Republic were written so it represents those regions as a whole. I think it would be a too large step to move for them, that would mean actual war between Russia and the Ukraine, if it would come to that Russia would do further steps which she will do anyway I believe, first moving actual units into the area the separatists hold. They may or may not hold a referendum to join Russia depending which is preferable - acting on behalf two small and defenseless countries to gain back their lands held occupied by evil Ukraine, or acting on behalf on her own interest to get back her own lands.
For now they'll also see if the West would be willing to engage in the conflict, or they would allow them to do whatever they want with Ukraine, satisfied by their own masturbatory measures of sanctions.
It's clear that Russian leaders don't care if the country and themselves personally get sanctioned. So these won't stop them taking further steps.
I believe Putin will be satisfied by taking that area the size of Crimea for now. Maybe it's his last move he'll ever do, the rest will depend on future generations. I don't think Russian people in general would support a war. A war with unknown cost especially.

>Which is why the latest "Ukrainian attacks" are probably false flags or random noise. The Ukrainians are not that stupid, they'd only push for a war right now if they had a guarantee of Western military participation.
You're probably right. I think the Ukrainian leadership is too powerless to do anything to begin with. It could very well be however that some of the incidents are done by the decision of local troops. During WWII along the Hungarian-Romanian border in the divided Transylvania, while our armies fought the Soviet far in the east, military action was continuous, essentially they fought skirmishes all the time, initiated by either sides.

>even Hungary sent forces to the border.
I did not hear about that. It could be that our border with Ukraine got reinforced, especially as it seems countries hereabout count on a wave of Ukrainian refugees, so those need to be processed.
>I don't see how this situation could be resolved in a way
It cannot be resolved. No war between global/nuclear powers, and Ukraine suffers from a power vacuum, which allowed Russia to move her foot in. Maybe one day Russia will claim the whole country. But I don't think she will in the near future. This tension is just too good for every participants to end it. Like all the things all over the globe that never gets resolved.

Bernd 02/23/2022 (Wed) 10:29:43 [Preview] No.46560 del
Here's something I'm not sure I get it right. They source it from Bloomberg.
It seem to be say how the Russian oil price (the Urals at least) plummeted. But it also says compared to "regional Dated Brent benchmark". But Brent price goes up - elsewhere I found it's now ~$96. Which means this is a relative fall for the Urals. It doesn't really go down, just as the Brent goes up, it stays the same. To me it seems it's a play on words and twisting the viewpoint. They make it look like the Brent is fixed, and since there's movement, it seems the Urals goes down. So it's just the question of comparison.

Bernd 02/23/2022 (Wed) 11:37:31 [Preview] No.46561 del
>It cannot be resolved. No war between global/nuclear powers, and Ukraine suffers from a power vacuum, which allowed Russia to move her foot in. Maybe one day Russia will claim the whole country. But I don't think she will in the near future. This tension is just too good for every participants to end it. Like all the things all over the globe that never gets resolved.

Ukraine isn't a nuclear power and this situation is not like Syria or Yemen. The Russians cannot allow it to sit and fester. The Russians have built up a large force and put on a show of strength to threaten the west, they have also been putting out a lot of propaganda about how Ukraine is a threat, it's going to develop nukes, it's genociding Russians, it should not even exist, etc so to back down now with no real result would be a huge loss of face. Ukraine is still a threat and supporting Donetsk and Luhansk as independent nations does not change that. What it does mean however is that there is now no way of forcing a Minsk 2, that's over as is any diplomatic solution.

The problem is that if they back down or even if they move in and take Luhansk and Donetsk, Ukraine still exists, only now it's angry and so is the west. They are going to keep strengthening their army only now with renewed vigour and even more help from the west, we may even see a Ukraine with Patriot missiles and modern fighters. Russia has to take Ukraine out of the equation entirely and now is their best chance to do it.

Bernd 02/23/2022 (Wed) 15:24:49 [Preview] No.46562 del
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>Ukraine isn't a nuclear power

Bernd 02/23/2022 (Wed) 21:14:12 [Preview] No.46565 del
Found article. It says:
1. They send various troops to the eastern border.
2. They hold war games in the western part of the country, with the participation of NATO allies too.

Bernd 02/24/2022 (Thu) 03:31:19 [Preview] No.46566 del
And so it has begun. Less than an hour ago Putin announced military operations against Ukraine. Artillery has now begun striking at Ukraine, so far they have hit Mariupol, Kiev and Odessa.

Bernd 02/24/2022 (Thu) 04:32:06 [Preview] No.46567 del
Russian war planes are staring to operate in Ukraine. It does not seem like Ukraine is reacting right now but it's still very early. Putin said he does not plan to occupy Ukraine but that he is going to give them the opportunity to vote fore their own leader. I guess he picked that up from the Americans.

I made some predictions of how I think this war will go but they are very easy predictions to make really, that does not mean I won't be wrong though.

Bernd 02/24/2022 (Thu) 05:52:05 [Preview] No.46568 del
The first strikes where against strategic targets, things like airports. However just recently artillery has started hitting the Russian-Ukrainian border as well as the Belarus-Ukrainian border. They are going after frontline targets now.

Also regarding Belarus, the President of Belarus said that he would cooperate with Russia in the Invasion of Ukraine and integrate with their army in doing so.

Bernd 02/24/2022 (Thu) 06:08:30 [Preview] No.46569 del
Russian tanks have entered Ukraine from the north, Ukraine says it shot down 5 planes and a helicopter in Luhansk, Russia says it has destroyed Ukrainian air defence and airbases.

Bernd 02/24/2022 (Thu) 07:52:48 [Preview] No.46570 del
They sprinkled Ukraine all over.

Bernd 02/24/2022 (Thu) 08:15:25 [Preview] No.46571 del
Flightradar24 behaves a little wonky. Maybe too much connections, people are curious.
What I noticed that planes are jumbled up at major airports. Also Empty holes over Hungary.

Bernd 02/24/2022 (Thu) 08:18:53 [Preview] No.46572 del
The liveuamap is also shitting itself. Getting 500/520 etc errors.

Bernd 02/24/2022 (Thu) 08:43:53 [Preview] No.46573 del
Ukraine doesn't seem to do much. I bet their units are huddling in the fortifications they invested their energy.
>some predictions
You need to use physical map, and know the lay of the land (centers of economy, strategic locations, etc.) to judge better.
One clear feature is the Dniepr, which divides the country into two. Major and important cities are Kiev, Kharkov, and Odessa - maybe some others.

>gainst strategic targets, things like airports.
Yes it seems airports and ports got hit. Limiting the capabilities, probably trying to gain the full control of air and sea.

Bernd 02/24/2022 (Thu) 09:35:17 [Preview] No.46574 del
Ukraine has cut off diplomatic ties with Russia. RIP Ukraine the Eurosoy armies wouldn't have helped anyway.

Bernd 02/24/2022 (Thu) 09:51:06 [Preview] No.46575 del
They need to wait for tomorrow when the UN will release a press statement about how they are deeply concerned.

I did incorporate the dniper! I'm mixed on what will happen in cities, I think some they will go for but others they might cut off, because cities are going to be where they suffer the most casualties. Other than that Ukraine is flat so not much matters. I maybe should have thought about roads more though. But it would not change much only slight bends in the lines they would still roughly be the same and many attacks will not follow them anyway.

>Yes it seems airports and ports got hit. Limiting the capabilities, probably trying to gain the full control of air and sea.
Yes, but I don't think it will be hard for them to control either, those are Ukraine's biggest weaknesses.

Too many people trying to look at it at once most likely.

Well diplomacy won't do them any good now anyway.

Bernd 02/24/2022 (Thu) 10:04:58 [Preview] No.46576 del
They'll have to take Kharkiv because it's important for logistics.

Bernd 02/24/2022 (Thu) 10:25:01 [Preview] No.46577 del
(120.83 KB 327x457 1645697914198.png)
Nippon Banzai!
Ukraine Banzai!

Bernd 02/24/2022 (Thu) 10:28:00 [Preview] No.46578 del
Mfw it's happening

Bernd 02/24/2022 (Thu) 10:35:10 [Preview] No.46579 del
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Reposting physical map here too.

They need the agreement of the UN they can defend themselves... Which will never came since Russia is security council member with veto right.
>Ukraine is flat
Yes, but for example from the north it's marshy I think, there's the Pripyat although I'm not sure it's exact extent.

Bernd 02/24/2022 (Thu) 10:39:38 [Preview] No.46580 del

Bernd 02/24/2022 (Thu) 10:39:59 [Preview] No.46581 del
God dammit I was tricked!!! I knew I should have checked and I am glad I did in the end.


Russian propagandists I bet.

Bernd 02/24/2022 (Thu) 10:43:05 [Preview] No.46582 del
Listening Al Jazeera live. The Ukrainian ambassador for Qatar speaks now. He told SU was founding member of UN and not Russia. I assume he means Russia shouldn't enjoy more rights in the UN than Belarus or Ukraine.
Well, we had a peace treaty with the Soviet Union that gave Kárpátalja to them, not the Ukraine.

Boris Johnson said UK and her allies will reply decisively. They're gonna impose more sanctions...

Bernd 02/24/2022 (Thu) 10:51:55 [Preview] No.46583 del
Some updates from our Russian neighbours in ITT thread:

Bernd 02/24/2022 (Thu) 10:56:29 [Preview] No.46584 del
I hope Putin invades the west next and genocides everyone, these people are too annoying.

Bernd 02/24/2022 (Thu) 11:03:33 [Preview] No.46585 del
If Biden says to you: they are ready to respond quickly and decisively, and Putin says: any attempt to interfere with the Russian action would lead to “consequences they have never seen”, which one would you believe?

Bernd 02/24/2022 (Thu) 11:07:26 [Preview] No.46586 del
I'm sure Biden is going to do some shitty sanctions and what not. I doubt Putin would destroy modern civilization though, assuming he is talking about nuclear warfare.

Bernd 02/24/2022 (Thu) 11:18:05 [Preview] No.46587 del
EU talking heads talking. They condemn the attack and will impose more sanctions. Gonna block banks and freeze Russian assets and whatever.

Bernd 02/24/2022 (Thu) 11:21:58 [Preview] No.46588 del
Also as I said some time ago: this whole thing could have been prevented by allowing Ukraine into NATO.

Bernd 02/24/2022 (Thu) 11:29:32 [Preview] No.46589 del
Ukrainian journo asking Stoltenberg:
>shouldn't NATO build anti-hitler... sorry anti-putin alliance?
This part: "build anti-hitler... sorry anti-putin" is a literal quote.

Bernd 02/24/2022 (Thu) 11:35:50 [Preview] No.46590 del
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Our heroes.
Jens Stoltenberg
13th secretary general of NATO since 2014
He is a socialist (social-democrat as they call it) politician from Norway, served there as prime minister too.
>Up to 1990, he had regular contacts with a Soviet diplomat. He ended this relationship after being informed by the Norwegian Police Security Service his contact was a KGB agent, warning him of further contact. Stoltenberg's code name within the KGB was "Steklov".
From Wikipee. Hilarious.

Bernd 02/24/2022 (Thu) 11:48:34 [Preview] No.46591 del
>Yes, but I don't think it will be hard for them to control either, those are Ukraine's biggest weaknesses.
So they should miss out on the opportunity? Enemy should be attacked where it's weak (attack where it's empty, says Sun Tzu). That opens up further weaknesses. Which has to be attacked.
If troops are put to the front, the back has to be targeted. If they are at the back, then the front. If they defend everywhere they'll be weak everywhere.

Bernd 02/24/2022 (Thu) 12:11:32 [Preview] No.46592 del
I hope our Ukrainian occasional poster (who probably is the same Bernd who usually attends the monthly streams) and the other Bernds are all right.

Bernd 02/24/2022 (Thu) 12:14:08 [Preview] No.46594 del
(2.79 MB 432x248 1.mp4)
(2.56 MB 352x640 IMG_6167.MP4)
(2.73 MB 272x480 IMG_8374.MP4)
(1.11 MB 848x464 9Vko.mp4)
Because no one knows what really happens, so only videos.

1,2 - Ka-52 somewhere near Kiev (shooting down/landing + results)
3 - burning possibly Russian armor near Kharkov
4 - burned down BTR-4 (UA) and Tigr (Russian jeep) somewhere.

Although there are much more in internet now.

Bernd 02/24/2022 (Thu) 12:23:16 [Preview] No.46595 del
Yes I assume many people narrowcasting their stuff on social media. And yes the problem is it just becomes noise and can't be known what's really going on. And where.
I'm listening/half-watching Al Jazeera livestream.

Bernd 02/24/2022 (Thu) 12:46:28 [Preview] No.46596 del
(5.32 MB 1280x720 oK9b.mp4)

Official media of both sides became mess, Russian one is relatively silent and says that everything is mostly ok except unfair treatment from evil west. Ukrainian one looks like there is apocalypse incoming, but Ukraine prevails.

So only short videos remain, but it is hard to say what happens and where. Only thing is sure - local Ukrainians are careless enough to walk openly in warzone, and it wouldn't end well.

Bernd 02/24/2022 (Thu) 12:57:28 [Preview] No.46597 del
This is how western prayer mill goes round and round now:
1. condemnation of Russia, she has no legal basis to attack
2. acknowledging the right of Ukraine to defend herself
3. EU countries stand united, NATO countries support each other
4. strengthening the NATO "eastern arm"
5. sanctions incoming

It seems fights going on close to Kiev and Kharkov. Towards Kiev there was an attack through the air, with helicopters. From Kharkov there are footage of destroyed Russian armor, and some dead.
>local Ukrainians are careless enough to walk openly in warzone,
It's the result of long peace in Europe, makes people clueless, plus we are so used to see violence on telly/internet, now footage taken by average people (or people seems to be average), it we look at the screen of our phone and look the world through that as if what we see would still be on the internet. It's crazy.
On the other hand those who sit at home can be in danger just the same.

Bernd 02/24/2022 (Thu) 13:20:52 [Preview] No.46598 del
Were the helicopters transporting desant to H/Gostomel?

Bernd 02/24/2022 (Thu) 13:27:27 [Preview] No.46599 del
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Gostomel is next to Kiev, to the NW.
There's an airport at it.

Bernd 02/24/2022 (Thu) 14:11:27 [Preview] No.46600 del
>Were the helicopters transporting desant to H/Gostomel?

There are speculations that special ops are deployed to quickly capture UA government, or to support that capture. Russian officials (Peskov basically) are ambiguous about war targets, only thing they say is "demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine", but it's hard to say what do they mean - occupation of some regions or regime change. Second option is possible and taking out center in Kiev is logical.

But it may be just capturing airbases to prevent UA to act.

Bernd 02/24/2022 (Thu) 14:25:22 [Preview] No.46601 del
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It could be that but I doubt they would try it with just SF, they would not be able to hold it(unless it's just a raid or something). But the SF maybe could secure it for the Russian airborne forces to then arrive. And if they did that they would also need to push hard along the entire front to keep them busy and stop them sending forces to annihilate the pocket.

Bernd 02/24/2022 (Thu) 15:15:53 [Preview] No.46602 del
>putin-orchestrated massive drive-by shooting

Bernd 02/24/2022 (Thu) 15:24:23 [Preview] No.46603 del
They are making much more progress in the south than I thought they would. Fairly early on in the invasion they were pushing into the south and I didn't know what to think of it, it seems like it should be easy to defend considering they are coming from an isthmus but they were being pushed back so I thought that maybe the Ukrainians deliberately left it lightly defended because they did not want to get caught there, so they would hold the river instead. But the Russians have crossed the river as well. I don't know maybe that area in general is lightly defended and they are going to hold them back closer to the capital, or maybe they want them to cross the river and they are then going to launch a counter attack and smash them.

Also, they are fighting in Chernobyl now...

Bernd 02/24/2022 (Thu) 15:30:46 [Preview] No.46604 del
I can reach the liveuamap website via Tor. So for some reason Hungary(?) is cut off from it?

Bernd 02/24/2022 (Thu) 15:37:30 [Preview] No.46605 del
Properly cut off or the errors that we keep getting anyway? What did it say?

That's bizarre.

Bernd 02/24/2022 (Thu) 15:40:47 [Preview] No.46606 del
The Ukrainians have said there were 34 helicopters used in the attack on Hostomel. That's a lot really.

Bernd 02/24/2022 (Thu) 15:51:47 [Preview] No.46607 del
Here's what Telegraph.co.uk put together.

Eh, it seems it's lottery. With my bare connection, it is always some form of 50* error. With Tor sometimes it works sometimes it doesn't.

Bernd 02/24/2022 (Thu) 16:04:03 [Preview] No.46608 del
From the same article here: >>46607
Comparison of forces.
Ukraine transport infrastructure.
Russian troops placement/buildup before the conflict.
+1 from Haaretz, what they gathered about the events.

Listening Zelenskyy. He seems speaking well. Translation wasn't well tho, I'm just judging his tone and speech. Well, he was actor.

What is Putin's endgame? What they try to accomplish? What is the goal?
Occupying whole Ukraine? Or eastern half? The Donbass? The seaside (from Odessa, through Kherson along the Dnieper through Mariupol to the separatists republics)? Installing a puppet? A combination of this? Something else?

Bernd 02/24/2022 (Thu) 17:18:53 [Preview] No.46609 del
Seems ground forces captured Chernobyl.

There are other airports in Kiev and one a bit further over the Dnieper.
Maybe forces went there to soften the avenue towards Kiev for ground troops.
>"demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine"
Oh yeah, this was mentioned as a goal on Al Jazeera. But I think demilitarization necessarily means some level of occupation, at least in key locations.

Bernd 02/24/2022 (Thu) 17:36:08 [Preview] No.46610 del
Gains in the south, from Crimea towards the Dniepr. Or loss if we view it from the Ukrainian side.
Also Russian forces moved in from the east, north of Lugansk, reaching Starobilsk, and from the north east, approaching Kharkov.
So four incursions with the one from the north towards Kiev.

Bernd 02/24/2022 (Thu) 18:11:36 [Preview] No.46611 del
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>But not Hungary.
Thanks Sholz.

Bernd 02/24/2022 (Thu) 18:39:25 [Preview] No.46612 del
this shit makes me speechless. reporters say that putler is batshit insane and german politician said that putin hiding from covid for so long made him autistic.

Bernd 02/24/2022 (Thu) 18:59:23 [Preview] No.46613 del
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I'm listening Biden now. He's talking about all the monetary/economical countersteps they're gonna implement. I'm wondering how much this will bite back? Russia is part of the global economy, they are investors around the globe and clients for the globe.
Also the measures the NATO take. What a luck USA withdrawn from Afghanistan so they can redeploy in Europe. Germany too will get (more) US troops.
Biden just said "action against the global peace". When was peace on this Earth srsly?
I have the feeling the whole thing doesn't matter and already decided. We are in the pockets of such economical players we can't even comprehend.

Well he definitely kept the distance form everyone.

Bernd 02/24/2022 (Thu) 19:04:45 [Preview] No.46614 del
Biden in a reply to a question of a journo started to explain something, started a bit vehemently then stopped and said - sorry I don't want to be a wiseguy... I liked this how he did it. Gonna try and get this segment of the footage. Got my sympathy for a bit.

Bernd 02/24/2022 (Thu) 19:35:16 [Preview] No.46615 del
A talking head was just saying (probably Ukrainian me thinks) that Russia probably want to take the Belarus way with Ukraine.
He also said he is disappointed that it is clear now noone will come to help. They would welcome any material help (like war material, AA weapon systems were mentioned) even now after the last hour, but they are alone facing 2nd most "deadly" army in the world.

Bernd 02/24/2022 (Thu) 21:03:25 [Preview] No.46616 del
I wonder how Ukrainians feel and think about the situation.
Sure they wouldn't like to die that is given, and they don't want their property to be destroyed, so they don't want war.
But do they feel about different management?
Do they favor their sovereignty? Would they given up for the EU instead? Well I assume "EU - modern, democratic, and rich" vs "Russia - feudalistic, authoritarian, and poor" dichotomy it would be a no-brainer for lot of them.
How they feel about the no foreign help, do they feel abandoned? Disappointed?

I also question our future. What neighbour we get? Russia? Another Belarus type of country? How would the relation go? EU parliament had a vote about foreign relations, that the EU don't need unanimous votes for making decisions, simple majority is enough to make all EU country to follow suit. Can make this difficult in the future.

Bernd 02/25/2022 (Fri) 02:33:04 [Preview] No.46617 del
They pushed the Russians back over the Dnieper, that's one crisis averted for now, I don't know why they got that far to begin with.

To the east it looks like the Russians are encircling a town reasonably close to Kiev, they have managed to take a reasonable amount of land there but I don't think it was that well defended(thought I did see a report from that area about Javelins being used to eliminate a column of 15 tanks). They are not getting far on the Kharkiv front so far. As I see it Donbass is just a distraction so I don't care much what happens there, the Russians are going to want to put pressure on the Ukrainians to tie there forces up there but they don't need to actually take that area, they can encircle the Ukrainian forces in the area from other directions.

Hostomel airport was taken back.

The British defence ministry released a statement and part of it reads 'it is unlikely that the Russia has achieved it's planned day 1 military objectives'.

Maybe. We will see.

Bernd 02/25/2022 (Fri) 07:29:01 [Preview] No.46619 del
Russian troops stole some Ukrainian trucks and used them to drive into Kiev. What mad men.

Bernd 02/25/2022 (Fri) 07:51:56 [Preview] No.46620 del
Very busy atm so I can't follow this shitshow, but I have read a few recaps.
I have to say, despite stating that part of me (a part that I keep in check because it's not the most coldbloodedly rational) considered a forceful Minsk 2 OK, this war has surprised me as I thought it was a mistake. As I wrote somewhere, war with a closely-related neighbor clearly looked to me beneficial only to the us/nato/west. So russia embarking on that project looks to me like playing into the hand of the "western partners". I thought the deployment around ukraine was useful first to decisively deter an incursion on donbas (which would have required a response and thus the cancellation of NS2, a goal for both kiev and washington), and second in applying pressure to kiev, creating economic problems due to the risk and uncertainty, strangling western investment and thus influence, pushing them into considering concessions regarding their nato plans. I did not expect an actual war, especially after many weeks of them officially stating that they did not "intended" one.
Quite a few other surprises as well:
- Why the very quick ground operation even reaching the outskirts of cities after the air strikes if the goal is demilitarization? I suppose it could be about military targets found near cities like bases, AA systems, and command centres, but do those need a ground strike? I guess the answer is: it is not only that because just demilitarization means kiev continues on a western/nato trajectory and ns2 is lost, which means you are back at funding their anti-russia project through yamal, basically just deferring the problem at best
- I would have expected that any invasion war would be similar to a US-like operation where they only move in when they are fairly convinced that all serious defenses have been taken out by air superiority. Yet I have seen more (unconfirmed but plausible) reports of decommissioned armor, either destroyed or just abandoned, than I expected for the early hours of a conflict. If those reports are to be believed then I suppose RU strikes missed some of the drones/mines/manpads/javelins/whatever it is they are facing. Seems like they might have acted too hastily.
- Also surprised by the speed with which they just drove through UA territory with little opposition. Maybe Kiev was surprised too. Or maybe it was an "invitation" to get bogged down in suburban areas? I hope the russians haven't forgotten about Grozny
Also, I'm disappoint, son. My guess is this war will not help the cause of multipolarity much. Instead it seems more likely to accelerate another west/east split into a kind of quasi "cold war 2". US/the west will see to this through the use of economic sanctions, which are really just a limited form of economic warfare, and split the world into 2 camps: those who obey washington's economic uprightness and those that defy it. This could be potentially quite bad for fast-growing countries not yet constrained by us foreign policy, like china and india (they have good enough relations with russia), and, precisely for the same reason, be desirable by washington so as to prolong the era of global hegemony.
It's only been a day but war is tragic and even more tragic among kindred people, I'm hoping for a rapid humane conclusion. Sigh.

Bernd 02/25/2022 (Fri) 07:56:22 [Preview] No.46621 del
Something which is not a surprise: Antonov aircraft can't seem to be able to stay in the air for long. there are reports of a cargo plane crashing in russian territory somewhat near ukraine. Report says "malfunction", but I wonder
Not exactly looking like an ideal start for RU

Bernd 02/25/2022 (Fri) 08:09:43 [Preview] No.46622 del
>Why the very quick ground operation even reaching the outskirts of cities after the air strikes if the goal is demilitarization?
By demilitarization they most likely mean occupying Ukraine and then disbanding the army, like what was done to Germany and Japan. Just smashing some soviet era air defence systems would not achieve that much.

>Yet I have seen more (unconfirmed but plausible) reports of decommissioned armor, either destroyed or just abandoned, than I expected for the early hours of a conflict. If those reports are to be believed then I suppose RU strikes missed some of the drones/mines/manpads/javelins/whatever it is they are facing. Seems like they might have acted too hastily.
Air strikes can't really target javelins and manpads. They can target SAM sites and airfields which they have though and it does seem they have taken out the Ukrainian SAMs.

>Also surprised by the speed with which they just drove through UA territory with little opposition. Maybe Kiev was surprised too. Or maybe it was an "invitation" to get bogged down in suburban areas? I hope the russians haven't forgotten about Grozny
Air assets can hit Ukrainian armoured and mechanised formations in the open quite hard ans can the superior Russian Armour so it's probably not going to be the open country side that gives Russia trouble and that seems to be the case. They are making progress on every front but only up until they hit urban areas it seems(which is why they have not achieved much at Karkhiv at all even though it's right over the border).

Bernd 02/25/2022 (Fri) 08:15:08 [Preview] No.46623 del
Damn it, the truck lads were taken out already...

Bernd 02/25/2022 (Fri) 09:07:19 [Preview] No.46626 del
Situation at the moment. It seems Russian desants took Gostomel, and ground troop closing in.
Moved in from the north east in Chernihiv (Chernigov?) Oblast.
Rest is about the same. We'll see how much ground they can gain.

Will Zelenskyy flee Ukraine?
What if this will turn into a long conflict?

Bernd 02/25/2022 (Fri) 09:41:54 [Preview] No.46627 del
It was really the other way around. Ground forces have been in that area for most of the day. It looks like airborne units are tying the same trick but at an airport east of Kiev at Homeil.

Bernd 02/25/2022 (Fri) 10:37:06 [Preview] No.46628 del
Yesterday morning choppers flew in to Gostomel. Russian ground forces were still nowhere yesterday about 22:00 (23:00 on the Ukraine). They arrived sometimes during the night/dawn/morning.
Talked about it here: >>46598 >>46599 >>46600 >>46601
Here's on the map: >>46607 Antonov Airport.
Here >>46609 is a map from the area. Should have made a close screencap of the airport. There were some air defence fire and ground clashes (blue AA icons and blue small arms icon).

Bernd 02/25/2022 (Fri) 10:42:43 [Preview] No.46629 del
Yes. And they were beaten back and the airport was recaptured. This is a new wave of attacks happening today that started on the ground.

Bernd 02/25/2022 (Fri) 11:45:37 [Preview] No.46630 del
>were beaten back
Where? Back to the air?
No. The desant was put down to the ground, they couldn't take the airport by the first charge, but managed later. They don't jump back to the air, they took up position somewhere around, than push in again until they succeed. The ground troops from Belarus closed in after. Now maybe are at the airport.

Bernd 02/25/2022 (Fri) 11:53:26 [Preview] No.46631 del
I don't know where they were beaten back to, maybe they were all killed or captured or pushed back into the countryside but the point is the attack field and the Uranians took the airfield back. What happened today is a separate assault and it started on the ground, you can check the logs if you want to go back that far.

Bernd 02/25/2022 (Fri) 11:54:37 [Preview] No.46632 del
Although, even now there is a log on the live map referencing the fact that yesterdays attack failed...

Bernd 02/25/2022 (Fri) 13:09:37 [Preview] No.46633 del
Russia just said it's ready to send a delegation to Minsk for talks with Ukraine!! What?!?!?! This can't be happening, surely this does not mean what I think it does.

Bernd 02/25/2022 (Fri) 13:17:24 [Preview] No.46634 del
Talk is cheap, going to Belarus, where the soldiers invaded from is a sure death.
Putin thinks he can put a figurehead on the top and the whole country will succumb to his wet dreams.

Bernd 02/25/2022 (Fri) 13:33:57 [Preview] No.46635 del
So there would have to be a ceasefire. Sigh...
He must know Ukraine will not accept that particularly so early in the war. Either things are much worse for him than would be apparent at first glance or it's some kind of political game.

Bernd 02/25/2022 (Fri) 14:01:59 [Preview] No.46636 del
>He must know Ukraine will not accept that particularly so early in the war.
Zelensky had an image of a talker guy. His electoral platform was "end the war, Poroshenko did it all wrong". He's got a coward image too. Russian propaganda goes on the narrative of "Zelensky, don't kill fellow Ukrainians, if you won't surrender, we'll kill 'em all", effectively building up the guilt and putting it on Zelensky.

However, the NATO meeting has to go now, we'll see whether the West will do the security guarantees under the Budapest memorandum or either the memorandum was a hoax for the West too.

Bernd 02/25/2022 (Fri) 14:07:35 [Preview] No.46637 del
In Syria Turkey set up observation points in Idlib area when the SAA and their Russian ally moved in there, slowing the offense down. Maybe similar could have worked. Or maybe it would have been considered as escalation. But then again, would Putin push the red button? It's a game of will, who blinks first. Right now NATO blinking rapidly.
Reinforcing eastern NATO allies also can be considered escalation. And then if Putin succeeds - depending on what this means Russia can find itself bordering NATO countries: Poland, Northern Hungary, Hungary, Romania (besides the Baltic ones).
I'm hearing that Russian cyber attacks against Ukraine could trigger Article 5 if indirectly effecting NATO countries.

That's the Ukrainian narration on the event. We don't know about casualties or anything.
Troops were transported there with helicopters, they might failed to take the airport, but that was their direct objective even for those hours? Maybe they were put there, ofc attacks were made - probing defences, reconnaissance by force -, and they waited for more transports to come in and support.

Bernd 02/25/2022 (Fri) 14:15:35 [Preview] No.46638 del
Maybe to the east and north east Ukranians rely on the fortifications, and defense in depth. Russian units could move in but they are slowed or even halted on the defense lines.
I assume Ukrainians are willing to give up some land (defense in depth also means they let the enemy in relatively deep), so the southern expanse from Crimea could be explained for that reason. There the Dniepr is relatively close by, would make sense to rely on it.

Bernd 02/25/2022 (Fri) 14:36:45 [Preview] No.46639 del
>creating economic problems due to the risk and uncertainty, strangling western investment and thus influence
This still can happen, maybe a bit differently. I wonder how the sanctions will bite back. Especially the halting of Nord Stream 2 by Germany. Will German babushkas huddling next to their improvised candle-pot stoves?
>war with a closely-related neighbor clearly looked to me beneficial only to the us/nato/west. So russia embarking on that project looks to me like playing into the hand of the "western partners"
Maybe Russian leadership thinks that Ukraine has more potential if put into use by Russian interests, and not just hovers in a limbo of "almost NATO, almost EU, but never be a member" state. Especially from the Russian point of view.
Maybe it serves many goals. Liek covid histeria can end with a bang now. Maybe the BLM riots in 2020 served similar purpose, but failed. I dunno.
>any invasion war would be similar to a US-like operation where they only move in when they are fairly convinced that all serious defenses have been taken out by air superiority.
Probably there is a large difference between attacking durkas (even Iraq) and a more similar country. My problem is this thing doesn't look like if all these forces are participating: >>46608 or maybe they are but actual losses seem quite low, just over hundred or so. If news can be trusted.
>the speed with which they just drove through UA territory with little opposition.
Defense in depth. They can afford to give up some land. On the border there are no places that can be fortified well, so they need to rely on fortifications after fortifications.

Bernd 02/25/2022 (Fri) 15:00:30 [Preview] No.46640 del
Al Jazeera says:
>Ukrainian military vehicles are entering the country’s capital Kyiv to defend it against approaching Russian troops, Ukraine’s interior ministry says.
Now there will be a reason to target Kiev since it will be full of military targets.

Bernd 02/25/2022 (Fri) 15:09:29 [Preview] No.46641 del
Sweden's and Finland's admission into NATO is questioned by Lavrov now. They're next to be fucked with.

Bernd 02/25/2022 (Fri) 15:10:46 [Preview] No.46642 del
>let's unzip our asses for the invaders so they won't kill us
Nice attitude, tovarisch.

Bernd 02/25/2022 (Fri) 15:16:24 [Preview] No.46643 del
I'm not sure what you imply there.

Bernd 02/25/2022 (Fri) 15:20:38 [Preview] No.46644 del
You look like a shill.

Bernd 02/25/2022 (Fri) 15:21:31 [Preview] No.46645 del

Bernd 02/25/2022 (Fri) 15:28:16 [Preview] No.46646 del
It's only like day 2 calm down, it took Germany like 4 days to conquer Holland so it would take weeks for Ukraine. Putin most definitely wants to get a favorable peace that puts Ukraine in his influence.

Bernd 02/25/2022 (Fri) 15:31:13 [Preview] No.46647 del
Okay, here you go:
1. Ukraine bitched that there is no reason to strike Kiev due to no military targets there.
2. Russia/Putin bolstered about the precision strikes
3. precision strikes weren't that precise civilians got harmed.
4. Now there will be a reason to strike Kiev.
5. Precision strikes won't be more precise. Probably got less.
Result: more civilian casualties.
To be hones you are the one who sounds like shill (a Ukrainian one) because you try to accuse me that I said Ukraine shouldn't defend her capital - while I did not say that.

Bernd 02/25/2022 (Fri) 15:34:06 [Preview] No.46648 del
>russian position, where is muh russian position
>ukraine would be beneficial for russia, we need to consider the point
>maybe it serves many goals, sovereignity and international law doesn't mean shit
>zelensky is responsible for the russian aggression
>defending a city is bad, cuz it will be burnt to the ground

You're basically parroting the Russian propaganda. The ugliest parts of it (law nihilism), not considering the naive ugly parts though.

Bernd 02/25/2022 (Fri) 15:40:03 [Preview] No.46649 del
>russian position, where is muh russian position
>ukraine would be beneficial for russia, we need to consider the point
>maybe it serves many goals, sovereignity and international law doesn't mean shit
>zelensky is responsible for the russian aggression
Where the fuck are these?
>defending a city is bad, cuz it will be burnt to the ground
Perhaps you are a Russian shill (instead of Ukrainian) who wants Kiev burnt to the ground...

Bernd 02/25/2022 (Fri) 15:40:54 [Preview] No.46650 del
>while I did not say that
Defending the capital means you get the army in here. One cannot be without the another.

Bernd 02/25/2022 (Fri) 15:44:23 [Preview] No.46651 del
>maybe it serves many goals
Oh I found this line. Here: >>46639
If anything it was about the suspicion this whole thing is orchestrated with the knowledge and agreement of the western leaders. Just read the following sentence about the covid hysteria.

Defending the capital means not letting the front get into it. If the fights on the street of a capital, that capital is fucked.

Bernd 02/25/2022 (Fri) 15:55:38 [Preview] No.46652 del
So. Today they have moved forces into the north, they have encircled three cities east of Kiev and it looks like they might try to cut Kiev off from the west, they did send force into the Kiev itself today but they were probing forces meant to harass more than anything else, I doubt they would push into Kiev itself just yet(unless they really want to end the war fast regardless of the cost).

And they just took the bridge back in the south...

Yes. Although with modern wars like this things have the potential to move much faster. Provided that one side can deal a decisive blow and annihilate the forces in their way, then they can zoom past rapidly to the rear. Or if they can manage to encircle the enemy and feel they can also spare the forces to push onwards. I wonder if this is what Russia will do in the North East.

Bernd 02/25/2022 (Fri) 15:57:56 [Preview] No.46653 del
The fight was always going to reach the streets of Kiev, it's just too close to the border and the Russians have the edge in air power and armour and so can dominate in the open.

Bernd 02/25/2022 (Fri) 16:01:21 [Preview] No.46654 del
>who wants Kiev burnt to the ground
Ukrainian cities and towns are being burnt to the ground _regardless_ of Ukrainian military presence. Putin's tactic is fearmongering. Your position relies on fearmongering too.

The whole position of "let's give out the capital to the Russian army and pray that they won't do no harm" mirrors Putin's propaganda and is plainly wrong. After giving up to the KGB, the ones who gave up are sent to gulags without any correlation to the perceived sins of the surrenderers. There is no mercy at the will of the KGB.

The absence of mercy is not a simple cruelty tactic, but a means to archive complete obedience (as in totalitarianism). No matter what you do, you'll get fucked, that's what they call learned helplessness, the sense of zero control over your life. And that's what leads to complete obedience, the ultimate goal of the KGB in the past, present and future.

So your fearmongering (just like Putin's propaganda) is basically helping Ukrainians achieve the first step on the way to complete helplessness - to give up their hope.

It does not even help to get one last reprievement - there is no reprievement until there are no NATO troops. It doesn't help to get any mercy too, because Putin does not believe neither in mercy nor trust.

Bernd 02/25/2022 (Fri) 16:02:39 [Preview] No.46655 del
>If the fights on the street of a capital, that capital is fucked.
Plain wrong.

Bernd 02/25/2022 (Fri) 16:06:49 [Preview] No.46656 del
>this whole thing is orchestrated with the knowledge and agreement of the western leaders
So, Putin got troops into Belarus since the protests took place, in the 2022's eve there was a horde near Ukrainian border, which only grew with time. Then Putin launched the invasion.

The logic would've suggested that the invasion is Putin's fault yet you blame Putin's sins on the Western leaders. Just like you blame casualties inflicted by Putin on Zelensky. That's plain shilling.

Bernd 02/25/2022 (Fri) 16:10:29 [Preview] No.46657 del
It was going to end as a guerilla war. And guerilla wars are fought on the streets.

Bernd 02/25/2022 (Fri) 16:20:58 [Preview] No.46658 del
Well it was expected not to commit all the units at once. But if just one third they can put way more weight there.

Well you can say that Ukraine was always meant to be defeated by Russia then.

>"let's give out the capital to the Russian army and pray that they won't do no harm"
Never said that.
How do I monger fear? You are the one who envisioned Kiev burnt to the ground.
Do you know what is plainly wrong? The idea that Ukraine can defeat Russia. Ukraine was thrown under the bus by the West (just like we were in 1956) because even they don't see a way. Rather feel safe in the NATO fortress. Even if due to some miracle the Ukrainian troops stops the Russians, the front is still on Ukraine, and they will be forced to give concessions. Putin will pretend those were the goals all along ofc, because this is how it goes: aim high, then claim a lower goal later.
And your thinking is absolutely moves on 1 bit. You can only comprehend 0 or 1. If not supporting Ukraine then it's clearly supporting Russia. This is also horribly wrong.

Yes, it is clear when enemy enters then the capital starts to really prosper. It was like that in every war.

You are again very much misrepresenting what I wrote. Nice strawman you got there, thank you. I see you aren't capable of more.

Bernd 02/25/2022 (Fri) 16:24:16 [Preview] No.46659 del
>a guerilla war
This is not WWII and not Afghanistan either. Ukrainian people just want peace and left alone to live their lives quietly.

Bernd 02/25/2022 (Fri) 17:23:39 [Preview] No.46660 del
>Well you can say that Ukraine was always meant to be defeated by Russia then.
>i'm not the shill, that American is the shill for sure!
Guerilla wars are not the kind of wars you know.

>Never said that.
Well, you meant that.

>How do I monger fear?
What do you propose? Leaving the capital and not defending it? Giving up officially is the first step to spread the fear.

>You are the one who envisioned Kiev burnt to the ground.
Now I see you are a shill. Even when that American did not suspect you, you were desperate to prove. Even your wrongful accusations of me wanting Kiev to be burnt are spreading fear.

>Do you know what is plainly wrong? The idea that Ukraine can defeat Russia.
There is no mercy from the KGB. The opposite of defense is giving up. You're the one to suggest that the Ukrainians give up and be turned into the bloody stew not by the Russian army, but by the Russian FSB and Russian National Guard. And that way, Ukrainians won't be allowed no hope, they'll be dead for sure.
If there is no mercy and all you get while pleading for mercy is prisons, torture and death, there is only one choice left. It's called the guerilla war. And by the means of it, a lot of national movements succeeded. However, you're a Russian shill and the core value of Russian propaganda is that people as a whole have no political will. You got that talking point right implicitly stating that guerilla wars can't succeed. And a guerilla war is the most painful thing to Putin, who won't manage the Russian economy, which did collapse right before the collapse of the USSR and actually was the cause of the USSR' collapse.

So, if Putin gets a long guerilla war instead of a small victorious war over Ukraine (in favor of which you are shilling), either his whole government will collapse by itself or Putin himself will be eventually killed. A small victorious war is a main aim for Putin. Granting him what he needs means that he'll conquer the Europe eventually and then he'll fuck you over constantly.

>they will be forced to give concessions
No they won't. Russian half-destroyed economy is not the one that will last. Putin's bet is a small victorious war that will make him last a bit more on the throne. If a war's gonna long, it's a suicide situation for Putin: he will be cornered by the political opposition, common folk, oligarchs, mafia (of which he is the member) and local tribal leaders like Kadyrov. A long conflict is a death sentence to Putin. A death sentence to Putin (or a mere detainment) is the only guarantee of peace in the CIS countries for now, Putin's gone mad and he's not going to return from his realm of madness.

>just like we were in 1956
If you're familiar with Stalin's repressions, you would know there is no mercy from the KGB. Hence, surrendering is not an option.

>Putin will pretend those were the goals all along ofc, because this is how it goes: aim high, then claim a lower goal later.
So you're eager to give a gangster what he wants, thinking you'll be safe giving up once. But you won't be safe. You'll give him more and more presents until all's left is your organs for sale. Do you think Putin will stop? Do you think he won't eat any other country, including yours own, alive?

An expert of Putin (and not a Russian shill) would know that the only thing Putin favors is the brute force. If you give him presents, he'll ask for more. If you show him the muscles or make it extremely painful for him to conquer your country, he'll lose his shit and run away.

Bernd 02/25/2022 (Fri) 17:24:39 [Preview] No.46661 del
>If not supporting Ukraine then it's clearly supporting Russia.
It is, since the Ukraine is the country that's being tortured by Putin right now. The context we're in is this very context and the deal is fairly simple. Only a Putin apologist would parrot his position right now. And you're parroting his position, I have not seen any condemns of Russian aggression made by you.

>It was like that in every war.
That's how national movements succeed. Not by pleading for mercy, but by a guerilla war.

>You are again very much misrepresenting
Misrepresenting what, your blaming of Putin's actions made solely by Putin on the Western leaders? That's a key recurring point of your shilling: all responsibility of Putin's actions is either on Ukrainians or Western people, but not on Putin. It is a well known logical fallacy employed by Putin's bots. You parrot the same ugly fallacies and key talking points, which for sure does not make you independent from the Russian propaganda any little.

Bernd 02/25/2022 (Fri) 17:31:50 [Preview] No.46662 del
>Ukrainian people just want peace and left alone to live their lives quietly.
You're parroting the same talking points that are debunked already, therefore, you're a shill.

There's no such a thing as a mercy given by the KGB. Putin will slaughter Ukrainian people regardless of how nice they plead.

Putin did it in the first day, he did it in the Crimea, he does it to Russians. Dissent's gonna be killed of by government terrorism. That's how Putin got to power: through FSB false flag bombings. That's how he stays in power, through profiling, unlawful prosecutions, death squads, secret prisons, tortures and all the other totalitarian regimes' best friends.

Bernd 02/25/2022 (Fri) 18:11:18 [Preview] No.46664 del
>It is, since the Ukraine is the country that's being tortured by Putin right now.
Dozens of armed conflicts are going on all over the world I don't have to take any side in any of it. Even in those where Hungarian soldiers are present in some form.
The rest you write is literal trash. What KGB? What the fuck you're talking about even?
Sucking "guerilla war" pipedream? Wtf.
Writing about no surrender like you weren't shitposting from your cozy armchair but clenching your rifle in the trenches. What a great Ukrainian internetcommando you are. Or maybe you want others to think you are Ukrainian patriot to embarrass those with your blabbering.

Bernd 02/25/2022 (Fri) 19:21:15 [Preview] No.46665 del
This ain't no regular conflict, this is a declaration of war to the world peace as we know it. Khuilo wants to unleash a new world war and Hunguary will suffer the same fate Ukraine suffers now.
And only a shit eater, a govnoed will ever do the lip service to Putin in that case, knowing that thier country will become part of sovok just a bit after.

>The rest you write is literal trash.
Which you ignore, since you cannot argue about the fame of Russian totalitarianism that is so well known throughout the world.

>What KGB?
Don't try to tell us you don't know what Komitet Gosudarstvennoi Bezopasnosti means. If you don't know what it is, no statement you do about Putin is credible, since Putin is a KGB officer and there is no such thing as a former KGB agent. It't a brand that's given for life, a golden (as in King Anti Midas who makes shit instead of gold) mark every sane person should be utterly disgusted of.

Again, you did not ever consider my words on that there was no option to surrender. Surrendering to a KGB officer is a death sentence with a long painful prelude of torture. KGB shows no mercy, therefore, the only option is to resist the gebnya until gebnya will break down. Which certainly will happen, I did a post on the cause.

Again, you have not taken into account these peculiaricties of KGB mercy (KGB mercy = torture). You are actively denying the facts. You are a pro-Khuilo shill.

> What a great Ukrainian internetcommando you are. Or maybe you want others to think you are Ukrainian patriot to embarrass those with your blabbering.
As a shill, you aim to say that your opponents are either shills or plainly biased. Shilling means being a professional victim and you're looking just like the one, you did accuse other people in this thread shortly after you were named a shill. Yet you did not base this accusations on anything. And proofs of your shilling (repeated parroting of debunked points, for example) are laid out, neat and clean.

So, how much do they pay at Lakhta-2, you shill?

Bernd 02/25/2022 (Fri) 19:23:30 [Preview] No.46666 del
>This ain't no regular conflict, this is a declaration of war to the world peace as we know it.
t. drooling retard

Did you know that Putin at least 10 cm taller than Zelenskyy?

Bernd 02/25/2022 (Fri) 19:35:08 [Preview] No.46667 del
>paid shill goes butthurt, changes the topic and lowers the bar to amoeba level
Typical paid pro-Putin shill reaction.

So, you didn't answer that question, how much do they pay you at Lakhta-2, osobo tsennyi sotrudnik so znaniem angliiskogo yazyka? Does it pay much to rat for Prigozhin?

Bernd 02/25/2022 (Fri) 19:43:33 [Preview] No.46668 del
End of the day full picture. Russians didn't made much progress but as he said >>46646 it's day 2. They probably moved on and halted by Ukrainian army in their fortifications.

>changes the topic
I'm just ignoring you because you aren't important.

Bernd 02/25/2022 (Fri) 20:03:59 [Preview] No.46669 del
Here's closer screenshots of important areas.
Tomorrow probably fights will start in Kiev.
Chernigov is on the Desna river. I would assume that could be a good line to held out, but maybe Desna isn't that large, I dunno that river
At Kharkov fights are going on since yesterday. From the map it seems they approach from different directions. Encirclement would be an understandable thing to do, in fact at all the cities and towns that could be used in the defence. Siege of Eszék/Osijek comes to mind.
In the south Russians seemed to gain a bridge on the Dnieper at Kherson, they also moved on Melitopol.

I find the info coming in lopsided.
First Russian troops can't narrowcast (probably forbidden, I expect some material be uploaded to the net at some point, partially used in propaganda) their stuff and most videos and tweets are coming from Ukrainian civilians, Ukrainian and foreign journalists among them. While before the attack satellite images were shared by western news agencies about Russian troop deployment, now I don't see much about their movements. However due to the civilian narrowcasting we have some idea about what's happening where. But no news about Ukrainian positioning, understandably they keep that quiet. Data about the losses also coming from Ukrainian sorces, but only about the Russian losses. I saw a report on Al JAzzera saying that according to Ukrainian sources 2800 Russian troops were killed, 80 tanks, 516 armoured combat vehicles, 10 aircrafts and 7 helicopters destroyed. This data can't be verified, losses must be higher than yesterdays ~100, that's obvious. No word about Ukrainian losses however.

Listening Al Jazeera, they said China refused to join sanctions against Russia. That was expected.
Also reading a NATO battlegroup is set up in Northern Hungary, a German company will be part of it.
Russia got banned from Eurovision song contest.

Bernd 02/25/2022 (Fri) 21:24:56 [Preview] No.46670 del
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How bad will the new gulags be?

Bernd 02/25/2022 (Fri) 23:35:24 [Preview] No.46672 del
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(12.10 MB 854x480 kadyrov.mp4)

Oh god, this thread now is like 2014 at typical Russian forum again. Such nostalgic feel.

Anyway, just some content:

1. Another approximate map. I don't think that lines and colored areas are good for measurement though, because it is very mobile warfare without proper front lines and territorial control. So separate units of both sides may move everywhere.
2. Millerovo military airport (Russia, Rostov region) got hit. Most likely single tactical ballistic missile.
3. Cinematic Kadyrov. He promised that 10 thousands of best warriors in the world will solve every problem, etc etc. Although it is debatable how much Chechen personnel really engaged in action.

Bernd 02/26/2022 (Sat) 00:25:33 [Preview] No.46673 del
Zelensky has said "they will storm at night" its like 2 AM in Kiev and nothing so far has happened (as far as anyone not there knows).

Bernd 02/26/2022 (Sat) 00:36:17 [Preview] No.46674 del
>Although it is debatable how much Chechen personnel really engaged in action
Never forget how large the Russian Muslim population is. Slavs have been aborting millions of their babies for decades and its starting to have ramifications outside the core regions Of Russia.

Bernd 02/26/2022 (Sat) 00:37:39 [Preview] No.46675 del
>Well you can say that Ukraine was always meant to be defeated by Russia then.

No... That has nothing to do with it at all. A nation can fight a long and bloody battle in their capital and still win or have their capital cut off and still win.

Bernd 02/26/2022 (Sat) 02:16:27 [Preview] No.46676 del
Combat near the Kiev Zoo now, I hope the animals will be alright.

Also I heard there was a Ukrainian ace that has shot down 6 Ruskie planes. So it was said but this was from a guy on a /jp/ spin-off.

Bernd 02/26/2022 (Sat) 02:21:52 [Preview] No.46677 del
The Chechens will spare the non-halal animals, the rest are fair game to be eaten.

Bernd 02/26/2022 (Sat) 04:53:35 [Preview] No.46679 del
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>How bad will the new gulags be?

hopefully things dont get too bad

>I also question our future. What neighbour we get? Russia?
What neigbor will we all get? Is this the start of the rest of a full blown EU invasion? Who evens knows at this point

>I wonder how Ukrainians feel and think about the situation.

Probably awful and panicky. I've mentioned before, but I knows some people from Ukraine so I'm feeling very saddenings about it. Internet is down, so I can't confirm anything about them. :((((((((((((((((((((

I've been very depresed in my flat since the entire thing happened.

Dutch bernd Bernd 02/26/2022 (Sat) 05:02:47 [Preview] No.46680 del
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How are Russians handling this situation bernd? I heard they were protesting the war a few days ago. Can't imagine that anybody enjoys what's been going on over the last few days.

Bernd 02/26/2022 (Sat) 06:55:28 [Preview] No.46681 del
Finally some news. It seems they were able to push them back from the zoo. I was worried for a bit but it looks like the zoo animals are going to be alright. I just hope none were killed in the fighting.

I enjoy it, I'm quite happy about this war. Well apart from the threat to the zoo animals...

Bernd 02/26/2022 (Sat) 08:22:27 [Preview] No.46682 del
Situation at the moment.
Russian landing attempt near Odessa failed.
Melitopol is divided, battle is going on.
Kiev is the main attraction now. I have to assume Russian troops entered from the NW from the direction of Gostomel. In the west a bridge was blown up not long ago, most likely to make the way in harder from there. But fights are inside Kiev and it seems Russians are approaching from the NW too.

Bernd 02/26/2022 (Sat) 10:43:11 [Preview] No.46684 del
That's similar to what certain threads were on the Krautchan back then as well. Maybe I should have call him pidoratnik or something. I could comment on the behaviour but I rather not to dwell on it much. Maybe I have to later, one can never know.
>Another approximate map. I don't think that lines and colored areas are good for measurement though,
Yeah, it seems action is going on beyond Cherigov too for example, even tho the map doesn't show.
>Millerovo military airport (Russia, Rostov region) got hit.
Arms reaching further.
>Cinematic Kadyrov
Men spread out to appear more than the actual number. Dramatic.
>10 thousands of best warriors in the world will solve every problem,
Muslims fighting over the Black Sea. Like some hundred years ago in the good old days.

Russians in Kiev now, so something must have happened.

I think somewhere I saw stats on the abortion in the Soviet Union. Maybe was on pol, new, or the q boards.

The last such war was Rome's against Hannibal I think. But that wasn't my point. My point was: if it's to close to avoid and then just let the Russians in there, then we could say it is unavoidable for Ukraine to be defeated so why not just give up - let's start at the end, and skip the prelude.
I know you did not mean like that, I did not misunderstand you.

Bernd 02/26/2022 (Sat) 10:57:22 [Preview] No.46685 del
China in ww2, Moscow in the Napoleonic wars, Paris in the Hundred years war, civil wars of course and there are probably many more examples. But that's not important.

>My point was: if it's to close to avoid and then just let the Russians in there, then we could say it is unavoidable for Ukraine to be defeated so why not just give up - let's start at the end, and skip the prelude. I know you did not mean like that, I did not misunderstand you.

That's not really a good Idea for Ukraine though, because they should actually want to fight in the capital, they should want urban fighting, they should want another Grozny(or multiple Groznys). That and it's also not in their best interest strategically in other ways as well, if they give up Kiev they will be pushed back to the next urban area and the further they are pushed back the more likely it is that the Russians could intercept east to west communications. If that happens they are in big trouble and they won't be able to get any equipment from Nato sent to the east either.

Bernd 02/26/2022 (Sat) 11:05:49 [Preview] No.46686 del
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According to openstreemap there are two zoos in Kiev, to the north in the outskirts at the Dniepr and to the south of central Kiev. I assume what you described must be in the north, it's near Vyshigorod, where a hydro-power plant stands. That is a strategic location so more fighting is expected there sadly.

>What neigbor will we all get?
Now I'm thinking a Belarus type of Ukraine would suit Russia the best. Putin would gain a safe border and a buffer zone, which everyone consider more or less sovereign state, which western powers don't violate, but he could still station or send troops via that country.
>Is this the start of the rest of a full blown EU invasion? Who evens knows at this point
One thing also worth to consider: after WWII the lands Hungary got back were taken again, but instead giving Kárpátalja back to Czechoslovakia the Soviet Union decided to keep it to herself. Why? Because in the fights the fortification lines manned by Germans (6th army) and Hungarians (1st army) in Carpathians proved to be to hard nut to crack and these were never broken through, they could only get into the Carpathians with the help of the Romanians who switched sides. For this reason the Soviet leadership thought to be prudent to keep a foot inside the Carpathian basin, a gate open, just in case.
If Russia subdues Ukraine, again they'll have a foot in here, and while the Carpathians could be a strong bastion, they will mean no obstacle if the worse comes. Western leaders don't care ofc (and Western people aren't aware), they'll be fine if an enemy arriving from the east can only be stopped in the hills/mountains of Austria and Czechia.

Bernd 02/26/2022 (Sat) 11:51:21 [Preview] No.46687 del
There is a third one in between those two. Really they have three zoos? Very fortunate, Kiev must be a rich and prosperous city.

Bernd 02/26/2022 (Sat) 11:53:21 [Preview] No.46688 del
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Russians was trying for another airfield SW of Kiev.
Also this thing says the zoo is near the Peremohy Avenue. Maybe it's a third place?

Bernd 02/26/2022 (Sat) 12:00:57 [Preview] No.46689 del
Ah I see it, thanks. I just searched on openstreetmap "kiev zoo" and it got two hits.
Kiev is a big city. In term of prosperousness, it's in Ukraine...

Bernd 02/26/2022 (Sat) 12:15:12 [Preview] No.46690 del
>How are Russians handling this situation bernd? I heard they were protesting the war a few days ago. Can't imagine that anybody enjoys what's been going on over the last few days.

I can't tell about acceptance of war because it is pretty hard to measure. There are plenty of Russians who see this justified as retaliation for Donbass, especially considering that these people rarely get information from sources other than official. And official sources are pretty quiet, they say that there is no war but military operation, Russia has no casualties at all (they really said it), Russia never target any civilian infrastructure etc. So for those people it is ok. Part of them don't want war but has internal conflict like "it is inevitable and must happen, but war is bad".

It is also sometimes very fun, because official Russian position was "they want war, we don't", and propaganda used anti-war theme as main thing for 8 years. For example, WW2 theme (almost sacred) always used as comparison to modern events, and Russia never starts war, but evil enemies do. And now officials try to avoid "war" in any reports (like threatening media for using this word).

Society already divided over Ukraine. Many people may become very stubborn in Ukrainian discussion, sometimes it is even dangerous to discuss, because it will may lead to confrontation.

Plenty of people against war of course, some because humanitarian reasons (including large amount of people who has relatives in Ukraine), some because economic (collapse is hard, prices go up). I guess majority is against war, but Russian society has no connection with decision makers, so it doesn't matter anyway.

Bernd 02/26/2022 (Sat) 12:16:05 [Preview] No.46691 del
Looks like they are making more progress in the south, they took the rest of Meltipol and are moving on. I made this map.

Looking at the area there does not seem to be many large urban areas in the lines of advance I marked(Dark Green) and as it's Ukraine it should be fairly open so it may be not so difficult for them to make progress here. If they do that puts the Ukrainian forces in Donbass and Mariupol in danger of being cut of. If they manage to take Kharkiv they might even cut them all off.

Bernd 02/26/2022 (Sat) 12:33:15 [Preview] No.46692 del
Here's map of population density (sorta), also from Haaretz. Shitty resolution.

Bernd 02/26/2022 (Sat) 12:39:15 [Preview] No.46693 del
Kharkiv is bigger than I thought, that might give them problems. But Southern Ukraine certainly does look underpopulated.

Bernd 02/26/2022 (Sat) 12:43:05 [Preview] No.46694 del
Probably wheat fields after buckwheat fields after potato fields.

Bernd 02/26/2022 (Sat) 12:52:43 [Preview] No.46695 del
Makes sense tbh. In xvi century there was pretty much no settlements in this area. All various refugees, criminals, slaves and adventurous types would run there because it was too far for goverment authorities and normal settlers would have hard time surviving.

Bernd 02/26/2022 (Sat) 12:56:09 [Preview] No.46696 del
In WW2 it was open steppe, not sure about now though.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=HrwpdRe7meM [Embed]

Bernd 02/26/2022 (Sat) 13:03:22 [Preview] No.46697 del
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Were Tatar lands.

Pastures and cultives.

Bernd 02/26/2022 (Sat) 13:04:32 [Preview] No.46698 del
Which also makes sense for Putin Khan wanting to unite all the lands of the Horde.

Bernd 02/26/2022 (Sat) 13:37:46 [Preview] No.46699 del
This is breddy far from any possible quick ground support. Did they just make it randomly? Someone thought:
>lyu kno vat vud bi gud aydya? djiamp on brody vid or xielicopters, blyad

>And now officials try to avoid "war" in any reports (like threatening media for using this word).
It is not invasion or assualt. Is is peacekeeping operation, denazification. We just demilitarize.

Bernd 02/26/2022 (Sat) 13:42:24 [Preview] No.46700 del
so after the initial shock and textbook opening of the war, Russians don't seem to perform that well. if the claimed death count of 3000 on the Russian side is anywhere near true, that's a lot for just 2 days. they seem to have underestimated the Ukrainian resistance and don't look prepared that well. it doesn't help that the Russian zoomer conscripts weren't properly briefed and think this is just another drill and that Ukrainians want to be liberated. the longer this drags on, the more expensive this becomes for Russia. as if the economical fallout from the sanctions isn't terrible enough, providing their army with food and weapons is expensive.
meanwhile Ukraine does a good job hiding their positions while getting more and more weapons from Britain, Netherlands and Poland. Don't know if Turkey sends more of their drones.

Bernd 02/26/2022 (Sat) 14:12:08 [Preview] No.46701 del
I suspect that these early attacks may have been probing attacks. They may have been throwing forces into the Ukrainians in the hope that if they were fast and violent enough they might be bale to take vital points with little effort. But bow they know that is not the case they should change their approach and focus more on open warfare and encirclements.

Bernd 02/26/2022 (Sat) 14:18:37 [Preview] No.46702 del
if you consider just sending some paratroopers into western ukraine as probing to see what happens, then Russia really doesn't care about losses.

Bernd 02/26/2022 (Sat) 14:28:24 [Preview] No.46703 del
I'm not really sure what is happening there or if anything is even happening at all.

Bernd 02/26/2022 (Sat) 14:30:12 [Preview] No.46704 del
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Does anybody know how to contact the Russian military? I think they could use this to guide their artillery strikes:

Bernd 02/26/2022 (Sat) 15:04:12 [Preview] No.46705 del
No, and noone here should do anything.
The situation can freely be discussed from whatever angle but participation is another thing.

Bernd 02/26/2022 (Sat) 15:14:38 [Preview] No.46706 del
But I want to send them my maps as well...

Bernd 02/26/2022 (Sat) 15:18:21 [Preview] No.46708 del

Bernd 02/26/2022 (Sat) 15:27:50 [Preview] No.46709 del
Offer 'em hamburgers like NY mayor for vaccination.

Bernd 02/26/2022 (Sat) 17:03:07 [Preview] No.46710 del
I don't trust the numbers for couple of reasons.
First is the "law of the ever growing numbers". This has couple of parts. First our number is high because we are the good guys and we are strong, ofc we are a lot in numbers. And the enemy's number is high - if we win because we can defeat so much, if we lose because only so much can defeat us. It's similar with the casualties, overreporting the enemy's is a thing, for same reasons. Note we have no reports of Ukrainian losses. Russians don't report at all (if there is no war, there must be no casualties anyway), and what numbers we get that is the tally done by the Ukrainian leadership.
Second, it is not easy to calculate. One guy said he saw a plane shot. Other guy says he also saw one. Then they check their testimony and there will be enough discrepancies in the story to count it as different event. Maybe airplane isn't the best example now they have cameras - and I see footages people walking up to wreckages - so that is a medium that can be relied on. But it's the principle of this. Two guys can fire on same target and both claim they got one each.
Take the numbers with hint of salt.
>anywhere near true,
But it could be close to that.

>textbook opening of the war
My impression is how differently the thing seems from what we could get used to in the case of Syria. In Syria they had a relatively long phase of shelling and bombing before each attack. Here in the opening move we could see couple of rockets and air strikes. Then came the helicopter/desant attack against Gostomel, or the tanks rolled in like in the Donbass, or a whole convoy sped through the border like in Crimea.
Now ofc they soften targets with artillery, just look at this smiley bloke and his pals with the katyushas. But it doesn't seem (from the map we follow) that they do it long (for days, like in Syria).

Bernd 02/26/2022 (Sat) 17:03:58 [Preview] No.46711 del
Forgot the vid related.

Bernd 02/26/2022 (Sat) 21:39:13 [Preview] No.46712 del
Third day is coming to its end.
Situation have not changed much. I see the shelling I was missing earlier.
There's fighting in Kiev, but the only thing that looks sure that Russians hold Gostomel. Kiev is surrounded by forests (except from the west-south west), towards the NW a national park in particular, which should have quite the woods, suitable for defense.
Chernigov, Sumy, Kharkov, and other towns towards the east got shelled.
In the south the Russians made considerable gains, with this pace they'll reach Mariupol tomorrow (they stand about 50-80 kms from it).

Bernd 02/27/2022 (Sun) 07:09:35 [Preview] No.46713 del
They are attacking Kharhiv now and it seems they have gotten pretty far. AND THERE IS ACTUALLY COMBAT FOOTAGE FOR ONCE!! Finally we can see what is actually happening. Well to a degree, it's not great. But it does show Russian forces moving along the streets but they are not in BTRs they are using the Russian version of a HUMV, odd.

Bernd 02/27/2022 (Sun) 07:58:10 [Preview] No.46714 del
can i say regardless of the bias: those ukrainina spellings are the gay
why now is suddenly everythings has got to be full with i and y?
too bad larping when the government are all native of russisch!

Bernd 02/27/2022 (Sun) 07:58:51 [Preview] No.46715 del
Ukraine just announced the creation of International territorial defence units. Anybody who wants to join is asked to go to their local Ukrainian embassy.

Maybe a few years ago I would have done that, not that I care about either side, I don't(But I think it would be more amusing if Russia won). But now, I don't know about it. All I want to do is find a nice house to live in and watch anime, I don't want to go to war anymore.

Bernd 02/27/2022 (Sun) 08:13:14 [Preview] No.46716 del
Yeah. Grew up on Panzer General. IT'S KHARKOV GODDAMIT!

Bernd 02/27/2022 (Sun) 08:35:20 [Preview] No.46717 del
1. They entered Ukraine.
2. They went until they found resistance.
3. There they got engaged by the Ukrainians.
4. They stopped. Maybe initiated recon by force form different directions to see the different levels of resistance.
5. They started the artillery strike to soften the places of resistance.
6. They started the attack.
Or maybe not. It looks like it.

That is not a bad idea. NATO could send troops as volunteers.
I know Croats had international brigade during the Yugo wars - I'm not adding this as a comment on NATO involvement, just something I remembered.

Bernd 02/27/2022 (Sun) 08:42:46 [Preview] No.46718 del
Same problem with Beloroosian. IT'S LUKASHENKO GODDAMIT!
It's a sound between a and o, and I think it's a short one as I hear it, but Hungarian pronunciation is very different, we don't have that sound, and I always pronounce it with strong A when I see the name and it just sounds wrong to my ear.

Bernd 02/27/2022 (Sun) 08:50:29 [Preview] No.46719 del
What does this mean? We're gonna have access to sat images?

Bernd 02/27/2022 (Sun) 09:12:04 [Preview] No.46720 del
That sounds about right. Early on they were probably hoping for as little damage to them and the Ukrainians(who they would be ruling afterwards) as possible, now they shift to a more conventional approach.

Maybe, but they don't really need troops, they need equipment. The fact that they blocked men under 60 from leaving and now are asking for foreigners to help seems like they really want more men and as it's not men they lack in the first place that could be a worry. They might be relying on cannon fodder.

Bernd 02/27/2022 (Sun) 11:50:22 [Preview] No.46721 del
Here's Ian Garner's thoughts on how Putin loses the propaganda war:
He is a historian specializes in the representation of WWII in Soviet and Russian literary and cultural works. So essentially in Soviet/Russian propaganda.
Problem is they can't create heroes, they can't even talk about war. It's some bureaucratic, abstract job that needs to be done and forget about it. It cannot make own population care.
Meanwhile Ukraine rules the internet. All the things we see here too, following that liveuamap, the information about the events, or the majority videos in the polru threads come from Ukrainain sources. They control the narrative how the world gets know the conflict, what the world will remember. And this seeps into the internet media the Russian people consumes, and what's gonna happen when - Garner says - when the bodybags will arrive back to home, when they'll see the Russian mothers and babushkas crying. This will make the war very unpopular.
I remember reading (I think it was the book titled: Guerillas in the Mist) that the USA lost Vietnam at home, the North used the American media to make their efforts unpopular, despised. North Vietnam won through propaganda. So I think as the conflict gets longer Ukraine get higher chance to pull off a stalemate or even a win, if the Russian propaganda can't show something to counter the Ukrainian propaganda efforts.

Garner uses some examples, one about the heroic Zelensky defending in Kiev appears on one of my screenshots too, I deliberately included on it: >>46682
>I need ammunition not a ride
Just looking around here we can find other examples. Although this is a NY Times report but also shows the brave civilians stepping up when the need arises. Doing great job of creating heroes.
Or this other video which showing Ukrainian civilians trying to stop Russian tanks. These images will get all over the world, into Russia too.
Or like these reports of the losses. Srsly, when come to numbers this what we get:
1. Russian military losses;
2. Ukrainian civilian losses.
What we don't get is the Ukrainian military losses. And this is because Putin and co. fails to counter Ukrainian propaganda.
Don't get me wrong, numbers game don't help the attacker when his action is already depicted as unjust. Did not help US in Vietnam when the results only could be counted in body count.

Bernd 02/27/2022 (Sun) 11:54:55 [Preview] No.46722 del
Also check that caption on that losses report:
>official sources
Average person will think:
>well if it's official it cannot be wrong

Bernd 02/27/2022 (Sun) 12:30:49 [Preview] No.46723 del
1. millions migrate from before 1 decade: how much did population crash? 8 millions? 10?
2. those become gastarbeiter for russland/polen/deutschland
3. gastarbeiter => young population
4. remain is low fertility: 1.3 for woman
thesis: today population maybe is more older demographic?

is not ukraine rules the internet but is u.s.a. rules the internet
those mediaplatforms are not of ukraine but those intensify only 1 propaganda side

Bernd 02/27/2022 (Sun) 12:50:55 [Preview] No.46724 del
You mean Ukrainian demographic?
Yes many went abroad, just as Romania, Ukraine also lost millions from the population mostly from the younger generation. There were numbers floating around.

Yes, those platforms are American, and the companies can pick whom voice is heard. They can amplify one side, while silence others. But this isn't the point.
1. Ukrainians create narrative, their government, and even the common people;
2. There is no other side, no Russian narrative to silence, it's just what Putin said before and that's it.
Even in Russia the govt. not just quite about what's happening, but they discouraged/banned media outlets from talking about war or invasion, or assult and whatever. There is no propaganda going there depicting successes, the heroes of the fight, or how the enemy is evil.

The last part, showing an evil enemy in this conflict is especially hard for Russian leadership, because when the war is over, and if they win, they have to set up a brotherly Ukraine, who counts as a friendly nation every Russian loves. This is hard to do when just before they were called evil. Or they have to incorporate Ukraine in the Russia, and it will be hard to tell people, that "hey 10 minutes ago they were evil, but now we stand together against evil west".
There was some talk about nazis and denazification, but I doubt anyone thinks whole Ukrainian army is nazi.

Bernd 02/27/2022 (Sun) 12:54:47 [Preview] No.46725 del
If those reports are to be believed the Russian army will be dead to a man in a month or two...
The Ukrainians used to report military casualty numbers all through the Donbass insurgency and they did for the very first day but they have not done so since. Suspicious.
Part of Russia's problem is that they make things so unbelievable that nobody can believe it. Like now, they are saying that it's fine, nobody is dying Russia has no casualties. Now clearly that is not true.

Well yes but not to the degree that they need to stop every man of fighting age from leaving the country, they already outnumber the Russians as it is(but we will see how long that lasts as Russia could bring more force in). But what will be interesting is how many of the refugees that are leaving now will stay in their new homes. Ukraine could lose all her unmarried women and widowed babushkas as they decide to stay where they are. Australia is talking about accepting Ukrainian refugees, many nations are it seems.

Bernd 02/27/2022 (Sun) 13:12:02 [Preview] No.46726 del
>Australia is talking about accepting Ukrainian refugees, many nations are it seems.
They're coming in here too. Over 60 thousand arrived in this three days.

Bernd 02/27/2022 (Sun) 13:14:29 [Preview] No.46727 del
Australia is only accepting sexy Ukranian refugees.

Bernd 02/27/2022 (Sun) 13:17:05 [Preview] No.46729 del
With enough vodka, all of them is sexy enough.

Bernd 02/27/2022 (Sun) 13:18:09 [Preview] No.46730 del
>Russian forces temporarily abandoned efforts to seize Chernihiv and Kharkiv to the northeast and east of Kyiv and are bypassing those cities to continue their drive on Kyiv.

Bernd 02/27/2022 (Sun) 13:30:04 [Preview] No.46731 del
They make these maps too. Even with some insights on unit placement. Nothing about Ukrainians tho, probably for a reason.

Bernd 02/27/2022 (Sun) 13:33:17 [Preview] No.46732 del
ok but i mean that: when they produce pro ru narrative those will be hidden or ignored
example: pro ukraine narrative schlangeinsel martyrs become widespread for last days: soldiers in island refused to surrender, warship killed everyone
afterwards: admission of pro russland narrative: soldiers did surrender and joined ru side
but press ignores that

Bernd 02/27/2022 (Sun) 13:42:16 [Preview] No.46733 del
I see. They picky too what they present ofc. The more important should be for Russia to push it, if they want to win.

I saw RT was taken down, was DDoSed or hacked by "Anonymous" as I saw it. So some communication channels are denied from them.

Bernd 02/27/2022 (Sun) 14:44:45 [Preview] No.46734 del
So going to war for denazification and removal of narkomans isn't a good causus belli. Who could have known.

Bernd 02/27/2022 (Sun) 15:24:50 [Preview] No.46736 del
Exactly. And partially this is the reason why they're losing the propaganda war which could cost for them to lose the war.

Bernd 02/27/2022 (Sun) 16:56:21 [Preview] No.46737 del
>economic sanctions, which are really just a limited form of economic warfare
I have been reading a little bit more. Let me correct myself: if what is being discussed pans out, it will not be "limited" after all, they are starting to threaten a pretty brutal decoupling, they even seem to be threatening sovereign assets abroad. I'll update my guess: you know how I spoke about the ebb and flow of us foreign policy vis-a-vis china and russia? I think the events have for the time being coalesced the will in the halls of the pentagon. They are taking the opportunity to push for regime change in moscow. Almost full-on economic warfare and decoupling, massive propaganda campaign, and as many weapons as possible for kiev so as to drag on the conflict ("fight them to the last Ukrainian"). They will eventually offer (if they didn't already) a choice: either regime change in moscow and renouncement of all claims on ukraine (including crimea), or iran-tier economic warfare, as much isolation as they can manage, basically an "iron curtain" this time drawn by the west. The goal would be to prop-up the pro-west politicians and excite the russian population to revolt against the govt to avoid the other alternative.

>Maybe Russian leadership thinks that Ukraine has more potential if put into use by Russian interests, and not just hovers in a limbo
For sure, and I think they would be correct (though the currents events may entail difficulties)

The point though is that whatever is or isn't a good casus belli depends on the power of your propaganda machine

Speaking about propaganda. I saw the "polru" board at the top of the list and decided to take a look... Welp, not what I expected. Almost everything there could be called "anti-russia"
bbc, the grauniad, ukraine embassy, echo of moscow (liberal slant russian media), whole bunch of pro-us pro-ukraine accounts
bellingcat: This is some outlet for british intelligence cut-outs, pretending to be a kind of wikileaks (they are actually highly critical of Assange and Wikileaks)
nexta: IIRC this is the channel created by Protasevych, the guy who supposedly fought in Donbass for one of the Bandera-related ukrainian battalions, and who was arrested after a plane was diverted towards Minsk over an alleged bomb threat. This outlet is constantly pushing all sort of pro-ua anti-ru propaganda, even going as far as posting footage of video games and claiming it shows ukranians shooting down russian aircraft.
I'm guessing the flagless posts above (after mine) are from one these denizens

Bernd 02/27/2022 (Sun) 18:10:28 [Preview] No.46738 del
>they are starting to threaten a pretty brutal decoupling, they even seem to be threatening sovereign assets abroad.
It's liek cancel culture got into foreign politics. They are cancelling Russia.
>"polru" board
>Almost everything there could be called "anti-russia"
You have to consider that Russian speaking chanverse is populated by anons from several places, and in some they really don't like Russia. There are Russians too, who has problems with their current system and on the imageboards, they can speak their minds freely. And there are those who fled Russia or the other ex-soviet countries, non of those happy places. I'm sure many posters have strong opinions influenced by their emotional state, and they hate Russia or the leadership of her (which then gets identified with Russia), so they write accordingly. Could be some real life agents/shills whatever among them? Sure. How likely it is I dunno. Meself was just accused being a shill above by the denizen you noticed. My person was also discussed there, it seems they tried to determine who I am by mixing chanlingo or whatever in their speak if I pick up on the expressions (it is hilarious, how the guy thought that the other suggested that he should mix Hungarian into his posts).
Btw you can read it in quite a few posts of Rusbernd that it is not easy to measure what Russian people think, because they think many and behind their thought process the issues and the influences are quite complex. One can put them into boxes, but quite often those won't fit perfectly.

Bernd 02/27/2022 (Sun) 18:23:41 [Preview] No.46739 del
(37.83 KB 750x497 markings.jpeg)
Found this. I thought the V marks those who came from Belarus.

Bernd 02/27/2022 (Sun) 18:31:30 [Preview] No.46740 del
The vehicles of that destroyed column in Bucha are marked with V. I highly doubt they are marines...
Watched the vid. Those apcs are brutally raped.

Bernd 02/27/2022 (Sun) 20:15:15 [Preview] No.46741 del
Ukrainian bunker filmed by a Russian. Contents: rich Ukrainian soil, konzervatse, pomodore, kapusta, still smoldering coals in stoves, and Ukrainian military kots probably to catch Russian saboteur mice.

Bernd 02/27/2022 (Sun) 20:25:44 [Preview] No.46742 del
Hungarian journos went over upon to the Ukraine to look around. Wanted to get to Lvov, but returned to Beregszász, a settlement in Kárpátalja near to our border. They were stopped by police, apparently people called them because one of the journos took photos. People are jumpy there and they were warned this thing is taken very seriously, due to the state of siege it is forbidden to share information about the country.
So they looked for a recruiting office. There were many civilians there signing up for duty. The journos asked if they would wanna join, can they do that and how. The officer said "come back tomorrow". So essentially right now they don't recruit foreigners. But maybe tomorrow.

Bernd 02/27/2022 (Sun) 20:38:55 [Preview] No.46743 del
Today's situation. Were fierce fights. No spectacular change.
I hate that this map increments in too large steps, a bit more finer zooming would be nice.

Bernd 02/27/2022 (Sun) 22:27:01 [Preview] No.46744 del
Swiss journalist experienced the same when trying to take photos. He just wanted to take a photo of a tram that was gifted by Switzerland, they used to drive in Zurich and continue to be used in Ukraine.

Bernd 02/28/2022 (Mon) 00:33:27 [Preview] No.46745 del
That was fairly brutal. Going by the destruction of the houses nearby as well it looked like an air strike. I completely forgot about those drones the Turks sent them, it could be them and that would also explain how so many other columns are being taken out. This is the issue, we just don't get much footage of how these things are happening, only random people filming it after the event.

Bernd 02/28/2022 (Mon) 01:07:54 [Preview] No.46746 del
It was drones, finally some footage was released of it. That's not fair and it's ruining the game.

Bernd 02/28/2022 (Mon) 02:42:09 [Preview] No.46747 del
>Even in Russia the govt. not just quite about what's happening, but they discouraged/banned media outlets from talking about war or invasion, or assult and whatever. There is no propaganda going there depicting successes, the heroes of the fight, or how the enemy is evil.
I can also see the Russians are a lot less talkative, while the Ukrainians constantly push dubious casualty numbers and war heroes. The Russians did seem to have used misinformation a lot during the first day, when there were rumors of landings near Odessa and the like. Now what they can show are continuous territorial gains, at some point the easternmost Ukrainian forces in Kharkov and the Donbass will be at risk of being cut off by Russian advances to their west.

What the Russians failed to achieve so far is a breakdown of the Ukrainian military, it's still a cohesive fighting force. This would come from a combination of demoralization and the neutralization of command and control, logistics, air defense capability, etc. On the morale side, it depends on whether belief in a righteous cause exceeds disbelief in the odds. Disbelief in the odds might not even have set in, or at least propaganda is doing a lot to prevent it. Belief in the cause might have been underestimated; in this regard, the historical consistency of Ukrainian nationalism is irrelevant, what matters is if people believe it. History itself might be irrelevant, what matters is if there's enough tribal, us-them sentiment.

Bernd 02/28/2022 (Mon) 03:01:41 [Preview] No.46748 del
(178.72 KB 850x595 27.jpg)
The Internet is a sea of propaganda right now. I doubt that site is unbiased, so here is another map.

>EU to provide fighters
But I thought airfields were destroyed. Where will they operate? A border country providing airbases basically means joining the war....

Bernd 02/28/2022 (Mon) 03:12:35 [Preview] No.46749 del
They made some gains in the North west, looks like they are going to connect those two pockets and then move to Kiev.

I don't know how viable it really is to give the fighters or anything else complex like that. It takes a long time to train pilots and the war might be over by then. I don't know how effective it would be anyway, even if they have a safe airfield to operate from as soon as the handful of fighters tried actually fighting they would be annihilated by swarms of Russian fighters. I think SAMs might have more use for air defence, though they still require a lot of training so still have that issue.

Giving Ukraine fighters just seem like an expensive way to hand the Russians the latest wrecked western technology to take apart and reverse engineer. If the war even lasts long enough to field them.

Bernd 02/28/2022 (Mon) 06:38:19 [Preview] No.46750 del
I have just heard a huge development Kizunai Ai has been defeated! This is a heavy blow against the V tuber menace, the war isn't over yet but this brings fresh hope.

Bernd 02/28/2022 (Mon) 08:57:31 [Preview] No.46751 del
Situation this morning.

Bernd 02/28/2022 (Mon) 10:26:06 [Preview] No.46752 del
I recommend Russia to start dropping nukes
start with Lvov

Bernd 02/28/2022 (Mon) 17:28:21 [Preview] No.46756 del
Also, right now the events of the past months can be evaluated in hindsight, as I myself wasn't expecting an invasion. When Putin began his military buildup, he certainly wasn't just doing exercises and wanted to get concessions through gunboat diplomacy, with war as his alternative. Western media reported on American "intelligence sources" constantly predicting war but in an untrustworthy way, not substantiating their claims, but now it seems they had basis in real intelligence, even if they repeatedly got the dates wrong.

Bernd 02/28/2022 (Mon) 17:41:41 [Preview] No.46757 del
Yes they seem to take the information security seriously. This is a reason why nothing appears in the media.

>destruction of the houses nearby
Maybe the place was peppered with rocket arty previously.
>drones [...] that would also explain how so many other columns are being taken out
Sounds quite plausible.


>I doubt that site is unbiased
It is biased for certain.
Where to get that map you posted?

>I don't know how viable it really is to give the fighters or anything else complex like that. It takes a long time to train pilots
I was thinking of that. But maybe Russians hit airports and caught many Ukrainian planes on the ground. So might be a surplus of pilots there and it would be wasteful just giving them an AK and dumping them in a trench.
>if they have a safe airfield to operate from as soon as the handful of fighters tried actually fighting they would be annihilated by swarms of Russian fighters.
Now this is a larger problem, and can't rationalize it on their behalf.

Damn, finally some good news from the frontline. Is it confirmed by independent sources, or just an empty propaganda?

Bernd 02/28/2022 (Mon) 21:46:43 [Preview] No.46761 del
>historical consistency of Ukrainian nationalism
I'm curious about this. Many Ukrainians supported the Germans in WWII, even had their own SS unit, and after the war ended there still were fights in the Ukraine. But much water flowed down the Danube since then. And there are many loud individuals on the internet, and we could see all those blokes wearing hohols, and other memes, plus the nazis or nazi symphatizers, I'm not sure, but how many of these in reality.
Many has Russian as their mother tongue, I have to assume of those many - not just in the separatist states - have some level of sympathy towards Russia. Here's couple of ethnical/linguistic maps.
Notable division between the regions.

Bernd 02/28/2022 (Mon) 21:51:29 [Preview] No.46762 del
This division seem to show whom people pick as a president. There is a notable difference between the choice which correlates with this ethno-linguistical division.

Bernd 02/28/2022 (Mon) 21:55:51 [Preview] No.46763 del
Then comes this in 2019. What happened? Anyone followed?
Anyway those areas where - I could assume - the population would support Russia/Russians are backed Zelensky the most.

Bernd 02/28/2022 (Mon) 22:01:37 [Preview] No.46764 del
Fugg. Liveuamap is kill. Cannot load in any way I try.

Bernd 02/28/2022 (Mon) 22:21:38 [Preview] No.46765 del
Maps maps maps.
So instead of the non-available liveuamap, here's one from Financial Times and Al Jazeera.
From both it seems, in the south they over Kherson, maybe just encircled and passed, but close to Mikolaev. Still on the approach of Mariupol, and similarly Zaporozhya (or how is it written).
I think fleeing civilians, who seek refuge towards the west is good for Russia, since EU has to tend to the refugees, occupying their capacity to some extent.

Bernd 02/28/2022 (Mon) 22:24:19 [Preview] No.46766 del
The aljizzair map is broken. Oh well.

Bernd 03/01/2022 (Tue) 00:53:24 [Preview] No.46767 del

>So might be a surplus of pilots there and it would be wasteful just giving them an AK and dumping them in a trench.
True but it still probably takes time to retrain a pilot to fly whatever western aircraft they get.

Bernd 03/01/2022 (Tue) 01:30:23 [Preview] No.46768 del
(332.73 KB 568x640 Z2.mp4)
is it known the videos are authentic and come from this conflict?
i remember videos released by azerbaijan/turkey were fullscreen and HD.

Bernd 03/01/2022 (Tue) 01:33:40 [Preview] No.46769 del
(267.31 KB 432x640 arma 3.mp4)
(726.25 KB 348x640 DCS.mp4)
(234.06 KB 480x540 Z1.mp4)
flag is wrong fyi.

Bernd 03/01/2022 (Tue) 01:35:32 [Preview] No.46770 del
Not sure. But I think it might be true in some cases as you can see footage of Ukrainian soldiers walking through wrecks.(though I remember in one case the liveuamap reported the same convoy numerous times but with different footage of it).

Bernd 03/01/2022 (Tue) 05:04:19 [Preview] No.46772 del
(5.61 MB 560x1024 3-3-1.mp4)
(23.63 MB 1280x640 32-_1_-1.mp4)
(611.79 KB 256x480 1111-1.mp4)
(13.26 MB 198x360 111-11111.mp4)
Yeah, we really are not getting the full picture here. People should really remember that Ukraine is not western and it's the most corrupt country in Europe after Russia, we all know Russia lies and we should be sceptical of anything Ukraine says as well. It seems they are losing a lot more than western media or even Livemaps would have you believe and some worrying events are taking place on the ground.

Bernd 03/01/2022 (Tue) 05:26:02 [Preview] No.46773 del
(17.03 MB 1280x720 1-27.mp4)
Also here is some footage of Ukrainian soldiers fighting in Kharkiv. I mentioned the battle before, Russia patrols were moving through with Russia Humvee type things. They can be seen on the left on the rod in this video. This is why it was silly for them to do this, you end up coming across a BTR and then what?

Bernd 03/01/2022 (Tue) 05:28:08 [Preview] No.46774 del
The Russians abandoned the Humvees and moved off the street into Urban areas, that's why they are there.

Bernd 03/01/2022 (Tue) 05:52:49 [Preview] No.46775 del
(187.25 KB 796x712 bbc.jpg)
scepticism is healthy. not getting too high on one's western horse also healthy.

yesterday i read that civilians were provided with firearms, advised on preparing molotovs, and some criminals released from prison.
now add vodka to the mix.
russia meanwhile was advising kiev citizens to evacuate the city through a passageway.

Bernd 03/01/2022 (Tue) 08:38:45 [Preview] No.46776 del
>is it known the videos are authentic and come from this conflict?
This is hard to say. The guys (well at least one guy) on /polru/ at least post source for the video, usually a twitter tweety tweet. The accounts frequently belong to journalists. What the liveuamap provides is similar, and lots of overlap to both (most likely the polru guy also uses liveuamap). It is good because the videos arrive in more or less chronological order, at least it can be known that videos appeared on which day (and supposedly presenting events that happened on that day).
But back to the mentioned journos. Like this one here: >>46740 that video about the destroyed column in Bucha was posted by one on his twitter. He has other footage there, photos too. What I noticed tries to put a geolocation coordinate to the footage, trying to find the location the event took place.
Some footage, must be identifiable with the help notable buildings for example, or other object around, billboards or whatever. But who will google streetlook the whole Ukraine?
What appears on imageboards in general, and in other social media too, is useless. Or what we post here is useless. Even what I repost - although I try to add timestamp and descriptive title into the filename which I took from the video I found (on polru typically, next to the tweet link he quotes what's written in the tweet with the video) - is essentially useless.
Things can be faked. But then - especially if there is no source where it appeared - even the fake can be faked. For example in that video, how can we know that really someone faked a footage from 2014 Donbas, and tried to make it look like it's a fresh video from this conflict? What if someone faked it, to claim that someone tried to fake it in order to spread misinformation about the authenticity of the appearing videos in general. Fake news about fake news. To generate doubt. Muddling the picture as much as it can get.
We have a saying: "man arrived from afar can say what he wants".

Bernd 03/01/2022 (Tue) 08:41:14 [Preview] No.46777 del
This one is interesting. In the polru thread there was photos of captured Russians with yellow armband. Who are those guys on the video?
>Russia Humvee type things.

Bernd 03/01/2022 (Tue) 09:02:29 [Preview] No.46778 del
Here's a map from aljizzair. Looks literally the same to me as yesterday's.
There is a knack to it how to dl from their site, need to open the shit in the devel tools dom view, then copypaste out the link, which pointed to a png file, but what downloads is a webp. Which have to be converted because end doesn't support webp. Nor IceCat.
Liveuamap was better in the sense that pinpointed events and linked the source right at it. Which could be information from little people on the ground. Now we have to rely entirely what large media outlets give us.

Bernd 03/01/2022 (Tue) 09:12:26 [Preview] No.46779 del
Footage from the Russians showing helicopters operating in Ukraine.

I think Yellow armband is Ukrainian, white is Russian.

Yes, Tigr, not something to fight BTRs with.

Bernd 03/01/2022 (Tue) 09:29:29 [Preview] No.46780 del
(641.06 KB 720x720 captured claim.mp4)
(40.06 KB 296x590 maybe not.jpg)
yes, i did see some videos that look more convincing.
but mainly i was asking about that supposed drone footage.
very little to work with there to attempt to geolocate or verify.

>the fake can be faked
and the faked fake can be faked too...
like this guy could actually be a russian pretending to be a ukrainian pretending to be a russian.
where do we stop adding layers of fraudulence?

Bernd 03/01/2022 (Tue) 09:37:18 [Preview] No.46781 del
(100.90 KB 1280x720 0001.jpg)
this guy seems to have a blue-yellow tag.

2 days kinda wasted with the negotiation thingy.
i wonder what they could be negotiating.
high time for russia to take the gloves off if it wants to end this quickly.
not like the west will backtrack the financial crackdown anyway.

Bernd 03/01/2022 (Tue) 12:07:28 [Preview] No.46782 del
>Found this. I thought the V marks those who came from Belarus.

There are still no reliable info about these marks, only speculations. It is tactical marks for different army groups, but multiple sources often have contradict claims, and nothing is reliable.

That image doesn't mention single line sign that is also common..

>Anyway those areas where - I could assume - the population would support Russia/Russians are backed Zelensky the most.

Question about Russian-Ukrainian relation is very complex, and simple answers like "they are same people" or "they are completely different nations" don't work at all. For example, western Ukrainians have much less common with Russians (although they have), but they may actually be less aggressive against Russians in current war, until everything started to happen at their territory (contrary to popular opinion in Russia, where western Ukrainians are source of all evil).

Zelensky is a person with center/east Ukrainian cultural background, not west. Poroshenko too though, he was just supported by westerners as lesser evil.

>Giving Ukraine fighters just seem like an expensive way to hand the Russians the latest wrecked western technology

It is about old Soviet fighters from Eastern Europe. A good way for Bulgaria and Poland to replace them with EU funding after war.

>Yeah, we really are not getting the full picture here.

Don't believe anything from both sides. It doesn't mean that everything is fake, but half of photos are videos are completely unverifiable, or their contents may be different from their description.

Bernd 03/01/2022 (Tue) 16:33:46 [Preview] No.46783 del
(99.01 KB 800x600 1654.jpg)
Thanks. That's a good point about the russian speakers and the ex-soviet space
>It's liek cancel culture got into foreign politics
Now that I think about it, it kind of is! Apart from the serious economic war (like the announced "freezing" of sovereign assets of the central bank, by far the greatest amount of sovereign wealth ever "sequestered" in this manner, literally hundreds of billions of usd/eur), there are also signs of the persecutions of "cancel culture". For example, people who have in the past expressed positive views of Russia, e.g. regarding Syria or about their defense of marriage, are being pressured to recant and disavow; those who recognized that crimea wanted to be russian are now accused of "appeasement" (deliberate parallels drawn to the Reich); russian and belorusian teams of various sports (football, ice hokey, volleyball?) are "suspended until further notice"; international sporting events are moved from russian locations; some universities in western Europe are poised to expel russian students; etc. Do you remember anything like this when USA invaded, for 1 example, Iraq over totally fabricated nonsense? Amazing
Some of the cancelling is quite hilarious too. Like disney, netflix and other globohomo propaganda arms intending to refuse releases or distribution of their trash in russia. Or the pornography website onlyfans cancelling all camwhores from russia (Fucking LMAO)
Meanwhile, parts of Europe are moving towards full [propaganda] war footing: Czecho&slovakia threatening their citizens with jail time (counted in years!) for expressing public support for russia. Online too.
In short, the current ukraine is the result of german (Brest-Litovsk, Reichkommissariat) then soviet attempts at nation-building/korenizing a chunk of the russian empire out of its "russianness" (which it had acquired at varying degrees, less towards the westernmost lands once in the PLC or AHE). Similar program now carried by the US-nurtured/guided "nationalisers" since the so-called "orange revolution", specifically, and since the the fall of the USSR more generally. (Can't remember exactly, but some US official said at the time something along the lines of: We have a couple of decades to clean up [e.g. of influence] the scattered mess of ex-soviet republics, before the next challenger comes to face us.)
Even today the results are mixed with stated preferences not matching revealed preferences, as one often sees in election maps.
What seems clear is the east versus west ideological split, with the far west being the region where the "nazi" or "neo nazi" brigades (azov, right sector, and other "banderists", etc.) or the sympathizers have more widespread support. There also these people in the centre and east (and as I was told, some might be even more zealous about it) but it's not as "normalized".
That may be because he campaigned as the peace candidate (he is a professional clown after all). In the end, he cracked down on them the most (language restrictions etc.)
>old Soviet fighters from Eastern Europe
I have read that of the 3 countries with this kind of fighters (Slovakia, Bulgaria, Poland), 2 have reportedly already declined to provide them (Slovakia and Bulgaria). While Poland was initially also reported as declining, and then shortly afterwards reverted to "neither confirm nor deny". These claims were by US media.

Bernd 03/01/2022 (Tue) 16:41:28 [Preview] No.46784 del
I can imagine that the drone video was cut together from the recent Karabakh conflit, Azeri drones destroying Armenian targets. I can imagine even from unreleased footage.
>where do we stop adding layers of fraudulence?
This is a good question but at a certain point it becomes redundant.
0. Creating a real video to influence people.
1. Creating a fake video to influence people - reasonable possibility
2. Creating a fake video to make people believe they are influenced by fake videos. - still within the limits of reasonable possibilities, creating doubt in the videos they see. Could be done by Russians for example, or trolls, or even pro-Ukrainian propagandist to turn people to "trusted" sources like big western media which confirms what they see.
3. Creating a fake video to deceive people into thinking that they are mislead to believe that someone made a fake video to influence them - uhh wait, am I writing this right? I dunno about this, why not just remaining at the first trick? Although it can serve to lower the level of trust.
4. This step I won't write. It is unnecessary, and would serve no purpose. If someone gets here in the fakery, he could have just stick at #2.

>not like the west will backtrack the financial crackdown anyway.
Yeah, they probably wouldn't.
Also if Russia stops now, they will be humiliated. Unless they get some extremely good concessions that aren't proportionate with the situation how western media paints it.
After the US/NATO withdrawal from Afghanistan, when half the world laffed at their failure, and taunted their flee with helicopters, they probably want to show how weak Russia is. Turn the tables, direct the light onto them.
I think for Putin, there is only one way: forward.

>only speculations
It does look like it, yes.
>Zelensky is a person with center/east Ukrainian cultural background, not west. Poroshenko too though
I'm thinking maybe if the current Prez was the one whom the western Ukrainians supported, but no the easterners, Russian troops might have easier time.

Bernd 03/01/2022 (Tue) 20:59:11 [Preview] No.46785 del
Shit finally loaded.
So here's the situation, according to this.
Russians entered Kherson. On photo related that Tigr has a simple Z.
Artillery pounding on southern towns. I assume part of the preparation before ground troops move on them.
Kharkov was also getting rocket, arty, and airstrikes.

Bernd 03/01/2022 (Tue) 21:15:05 [Preview] No.46786 del
This story from this Russian soldier sounds like something they joke around, told with sarcasm.
Private asks:
- Are we gonna have to fight???
Officer replies:
- No. You just have to drive into Kiev. Zelensky already capitulated. You gonna have some ice cream and a nice stroll on he banks of the Dnieper. What do you think idiot??!!

Kiev. It seems more Russian forces are gathering. Some rocket and air strikes, ground attacks from the NW.
This video shows a truck with V on it in Borodyanka. Link:

Bernd 03/02/2022 (Wed) 02:22:39 [Preview] No.46787 del
(12.29 MB 720x480 1-3.mp4)
The commie blocks speak in Ukrainian.

Tigrs again... They must be scouting elements or something. I saw footage of Russian infantry there as well, it looked like actual infantry not Tigr boys(the ones in Khakiv wore some kind of black uniform like SWAT not green like Russian army).

>It is about old Soviet fighters from Eastern Europe. A good way for Bulgaria and Poland to replace them with EU funding after war.

Makes sense, apparently it was made up though. The Bulgarian PM said he had no intention of giving them planes as he had too few of his own anyway.

>Don't believe anything from both sides. It doesn't mean that everything is fake, but half of photos are videos are completely unverifiable, or their contents may be different from their description.

I find that more and more... And the video footage is terrible for some reason too, Arabs in Syria seem to have better phones than the Ukrainians do.

Bernd 03/02/2022 (Wed) 08:37:18 [Preview] No.46788 del
Situation did not change much over the night, so won't post map now. There was this thing that Russian troops "landed" at Kharkov. What do they mean by that? Was this another desant action?
Lot's of bombardment, artillery, rockets, air strikes, in the past few days. Start to get look more liek Syria. Also these strikes aren't just made randomly, they have targets. Russian military intel has to know more, they have tools, even satellites (they even have that GLONASS thing too, not just sat imaging stuff, which is a positioning system comparable to GPS). Ukrainian military losses (in equipment, logistics, maybe in lives too) has to be high-ish.
Ukrainians fight a different type of war. No news of tank clashes for example, but quite a few infantry based AT action (the new about the successful use of Javelins, or that vid here >>46773 with the good old rpgs). No artillery bombardment either, where are their guns, howitzers, katyushas? They have nothing the like? Were they destroyed already? They seem to use their drones tho if we can believe the news (and that footage above).

Too bad on those grainy pics not much can be seen what they hit. At the end of the vid destroyed vehicles are shown. Could be that some of the destroyed Russian columns were actually Ukrainian? Some of the equipment are the same, some very similar. That part at ~0:28 looks like a column of vehicles for example. The landscape looks "Ukrainian" but that means little.
Also that mi-24 at ~0:22, do Russian stuff still have big red star on them?

Very Vietnam.

Bernd 03/02/2022 (Wed) 15:59:31 [Preview] No.46789 del
Ok. So is there a list now what can be said and what isn't? Where will treason start?

Bernd 03/02/2022 (Wed) 16:08:38 [Preview] No.46790 del
I mean for EU citizens.

Bernd 03/02/2022 (Wed) 18:07:56 [Preview] No.46791 del
Hungarian parliamentary representatives were briefed about the war by the govt. The session got classified for 50 years.
It's either nothing, or something big. When they make shit classified I always get the feeling we're getting fucked over again.

Bernd 03/02/2022 (Wed) 21:00:41 [Preview] No.46792 del
There must be some kind of bermuda triangle near Romanian shores.
According to these news the main habbenings are: Kherson is pressed hard, Russian troops are at Energodar, Kharkov gets more shelling.

Bernd 03/03/2022 (Thu) 00:31:44 [Preview] No.46793 del
oy vey it's anudda shoah.
the jewish media haretz said that at a border crossing checkpoint ukraine shot dead a jew because he looked chechen.

Bernd 03/03/2022 (Thu) 06:10:11 [Preview] No.46797 del
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russia has claimed casualty figures for the 1st time since the start of the conflict almost a week ago.
their troops: about 500 killed and 1500 injured.
ukranian troops: about 2800 killed, 3700 injured and 500 apprehended.
ukraine has claimed russian troops killed total about 6000.

also more cancelling, now digitally because why not.

Bernd 03/03/2022 (Thu) 10:37:11 [Preview] No.46799 del
Well, just concentrating on what's important.

I dunno. Trying to extract some info from TASS. If somewhere a casualty report on behalf of the Russian govt. would appear I guess TASS would be the first one.
I only found this:
>As many as 1,612 targets have been hit since the start of the operation, including 62 command posts and communications centers, 39 S-300, Buk M-1 and Osa missile systems and 52 radar stations
>49 aircraft were destroyed on the ground and another 13 in the air. A total of 606 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 67 multiple rocket launchers, 227 field artillery pieces and mortars, 405 military motor vehicles and 53 unmanned aerial vehicles were also destroyed.
Quite uncomfortable to use that site, the structure is weird.

But here's an article from Al Jazeera about this, citing the same numbers that you posted.
Their source is:
>Source: News Agencies
Which usually means Reuters, but not sure that it is now.

Also Kherson was captured yesterday.

Bernd 03/03/2022 (Thu) 10:45:43 [Preview] No.46800 del
Ehh, here's screenshot of the snippet about Kherson.

Interesting find: Russian companies rush to China to open bank accounts.
>It's pretty simple logic. If you cannot use U.S. dollars, or euros, and U.S. and Europe stop selling you many products, you have no other options but to turn to China. The trend is inevitable,
>As a growing number of Western companies abandon Russia, the willingness of emerging market giants such as China to sustain business relations with Moscow highlights a deep rift over Europe's biggest crisis since the World War Two. That trend could threaten to chip away the dominance of the U.S. dollar in global trade.
This is important because the US dollar as an international trading medium ensures that it remains strong and stable.

Bernd 03/03/2022 (Thu) 11:13:19 [Preview] No.46801 del
In southern Ukraine.
Kherson captured, and Russian forces are at Mikolaev, Energodar, and Mariupol. Heavy fighting at the latter.

Spent couple of minutes on filghtradar. Found some American military air traffic in our region. Won't post screenshots.

Bernd 03/03/2022 (Thu) 21:53:44 [Preview] No.46805 del
Today Al Jazeera map, because I can't be bothered with the livemap. Also that one loads sluggishly.

In other related news: Hungary relevant.

Bernd 03/04/2022 (Fri) 02:39:04 [Preview] No.46811 del
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(173.22 KB 562x855 01.png)
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>also more cancelling, now digitally because why not.

There's a lot more than that.

Got this straight from bernd.group. Now I'm starting to feels really really sad for Russian bernds. The suffering is over the top

Bernd 03/04/2022 (Fri) 02:45:27 [Preview] No.46813 del
(20.79 KB 468x328 burger execution.jpg)
Some youtube things:

Here's some new videos from NFKRZ over how things are going on in Russia after this thing happened


Also, Life of Boris, famous Slav utuber just quit after this happened


tbh 2022 has been pretty depressing so far

Bernd 03/04/2022 (Fri) 02:52:11 [Preview] No.46814 del
And ofc bernd suffers from this too. See picrel

Should we upload videos from the invasion happening here? We're almost at a bump limit here I'm still pretty beat up from all of this stuff, so I'm not posting as much as I do

Bernd 03/04/2022 (Fri) 02:55:43 [Preview] No.46815 del
>If Russia subdues Ukraine, again they'll have a foot in here, and while the Carpathians could be a strong bastion, they will mean no obstacle if the worse comes. Western leaders don't care ofc (and Western people aren't aware), they'll be fine if an enemy arriving from the east can only be stopped in the hills/mountains of Austria and Czechia.

Ok that's a relief. Eastern Europe can put up a fight I think

>I enjoy it, I'm quite happy about this war. Well apart from the threat to the zoo animals...

Are u Russian or American?
>I'm quite happy about this war
but why though? What if the invasion takes place in the USA next time? Will you survive it?

Bernd 03/04/2022 (Fri) 02:57:29 [Preview] No.46816 del
Dang. That sounds like a mess. Hope u can at least survive all of it

Bernd 03/04/2022 (Fri) 03:51:12 [Preview] No.46817 del
(511.67 KB 928x766 4horsies.png)
(18.88 MB 1280x720 bad invasion.webm)
>Should we upload videos from the invasion happening here?

I mean not posting stuff like gore or whatever. Just whatever else you can find

Bernd 03/04/2022 (Fri) 04:41:37 [Preview] No.46818 del
checked again. "AP" is listed as source but what's their source?
it does give a name for the quoted official: Igor Konashenkov.

>western brands quitting the market to show how pure they are
promising for local and eastern capitalists trained in import substitution.

Bernd 03/04/2022 (Fri) 04:51:49 [Preview] No.46819 del
(51.41 KB 640x352 0001.jpg)
(98.01 KB 976x849 syria fake.jpg)
>I can imagine that the drone video was cut together from the recent Karabakh conflit,
may be.
there's at least 1 other drone video which was shown to have fake footage taken syria.
they crop or flip the video and then slap a flag in the corner.

about the recursive fakery: yeah it could still be done to try to incriminate the other side, but you're right it hits hard diminishing returns after the second layer.

Bernd 03/04/2022 (Fri) 08:42:42 [Preview] No.46822 del
I wish at least half of those would leave Hungary alone.

That is very useful. And it's clear what he said in the beginning, that no matter how things turn bad people won't turn on the govt.
I wonder how it is going for Lars of Survival Russia. Maybe he'll make a video about this, but maybe it's more complicated for him, he's being Danish.
That one sounds like a joke. Just can't take that exaggerated fake accent srsly.

Feel free to upload anything.

>Ok that's a relief.
Well I'm glad at least you'll be safe.

>What if the invasion takes place in the USA next time?
We can just hope.

>Igor Konashenkov
>is the chief spokesman for the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation.
Ah. Maybe he issued statements. (I doubt it was a press conference.)
>promising for local and eastern capitalists trained in import substitution.
Someone will step in, fill the gaps, and profit from it. It might be prove to be good for Russian economy... on the long run.

>recursive fakery
That's a good idiom.
I think Slovborg said on bernd.group: it there is no source that the thing was actually used by the Ukrainians (and/or Western media), then it's useless.

Bernd 03/04/2022 (Fri) 09:02:44 [Preview] No.46823 del
Couple of highlights.
1. Russians occupied Zaporozhia (still don't know how to write it) NPP at Energodar. Was some fires during the night too, but now there is danger of nuclear catastrophe. Supposedly this is the larges NPP in Europe. Hungarian media says the deed was done by the Chechen Kadryovists. Considering these guys are reported to be at all over Ukraine and they are obviously can't be everywhere I highly doubt this information. It's liek when in WWII every tank of the Germans was a Tiger for the western Allied troops, when there was only just a few in reality.
2. There are fights already that deep at Voznesensk. This really shows how we can't know how deep the Russians penetrated into the Ukraine.
3. Fights in Bucha where that column above somewhere was destroyed; NW of Kiev.

Bernd 03/04/2022 (Fri) 09:39:38 [Preview] No.46824 del
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>Zaporozhia (still don't know how to write it)

Russian version can be translitarated as Zaporozhie or Zaporozhye (Запорожье). Name comes from "za porogom", literally "after the rapids (porogi)". Word "porog" (порог) also used as "doorstep" btw.

Ukrainian one is same word, just with Ukrainian style, where "o" is replaced with "i" - Запорiжжя. Double "zh" softens next sound here.

Official English transliteration now uses national variant (Ukrainian) and looks horrible - Zaporizhzhia, but I guess you can easily skip one zh and it will be ok.

Bernd 03/04/2022 (Fri) 09:58:38 [Preview] No.46825 del
(6.51 MB 1280x720 melitopol.mp4)
(2.23 MB 720x1280 screening cars.mp4)
>but now there is danger
there is not (unless attacked)
— there was fire in an office building
— at some point firefighters were allowed in to control it
— head of the plant said "no safety threat"
— radiation levels remain normal
it was just ukie propaganda to beg for foreign intervention

Bernd 03/04/2022 (Fri) 10:07:13 [Preview] No.46828 del
Yeah, I always want to write Zaporozhets. Because that is what I'm familiar with.
Thanks, I'll figure out my preference.

>but now there is danger
It was a typo. I had a couple of ways to putting it, and forgot about the "no".

Bernd 03/04/2022 (Fri) 22:44:25 [Preview] No.46831 del
Not much change, but here's something. Again farther than we would think.

Bernd 03/05/2022 (Sat) 10:37:04 [Preview] No.46833 del
(1.40 MB 1920x1080 boris-johnson.webm)
Don't know if it needs to go into webm thread or here. But it's fun.

Bernd 03/05/2022 (Sat) 16:03:48 [Preview] No.46835 del
Did they wrote that up for him phonetically? I hope he'll never have to talk in Hungarian.

Bernd 03/05/2022 (Sat) 17:38:32 [Preview] No.46837 del
>Did they wrote that up for him phonetically?

I guess so. Looks like he isn't that bad, at least words are understandable.
Although I'm not an Ukrainian speaker so can't really comment pronunciation.

Bernd 03/06/2022 (Sun) 19:30:31 [Preview] No.46843 del
(8.76 MB 1280x720 beograd1.mp4)
(4.85 MB 720x1280 beograd2.mp4)
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based serbs not intimidated by the avalanche of propaganda

Bernd 03/06/2022 (Sun) 19:33:38 [Preview] No.46844 del
(5.55 MB 1280x720 bulgaria.mp4)
based bulgaria too

Bernd 03/06/2022 (Sun) 20:20:36 [Preview] No.46845 del
That's just the resonance of the Tzars age old pan-slavist propaganda, they used to gain influence over the Balkans while they wrestled their competitors (Ottos and Habsburgs).
I don't really get the last screenshot. France and UK also won two world wars, they pushing the Ukrainian cart forward however.

Now Bulgaria is different. Since she's both in the EU and NATO, there must be some expectations to denounce Russia. Tho there is a difference between official, govt. organized sympathy demonstration, and a completely civilian one.

Bernd 03/06/2022 (Sun) 21:37:38 [Preview] No.46846 del
Btw Hungarian govt banned grain export. Read elsewhere some countries will be hit hard by the effects of the conflict. For example Turkey imports much grain from Ukrain and/or Russia, now they aren't able to. Us leaving the market will have an impact too. Maybe even other countries will follow suit. Famine is incoming?

Bernd 03/07/2022 (Mon) 12:11:52 [Preview] No.46848 del
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you don't get simple bait and switch jokes?
>France and UK
so what they are not in the photos chosen by that propagandist

<That's just the resonance of the Ottos and Habsburgs age-old anti-Rusyn/Russian/Orthodox propaganda, they used to gain influence over the Galitsya while they wrestled their competitors (Romanovs).

Bernd 03/07/2022 (Mon) 14:23:29 [Preview] No.46849 del
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You're back? You are seem to be the type of Russian who always talks shit about Russia, probably acts against Russia, but can't stand if someone either criticizes Russia or praise her. Well doesn't need to be actual criticism, just a statement of fact, and doesn't need to be actual praise just something normal.

Bernd 03/07/2022 (Mon) 15:50:04 [Preview] No.46850 del
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>pretends he doesn't get a joke b/c the most subtle of brushes to his ego
>proceeds to deconstruct a national bond but doesn't like when the exact same thing is applied in return
>memories of russians come back to life
obviously i never left!
rent-free in your head to this day
whoever i should be

Bernd 03/08/2022 (Tue) 02:31:34 [Preview] No.46853 del
Russia is taking this veeery slow. At some point Ukraine's best forces in the Donbass and Kharkov will be at risk of encirclement, but at this pace it will take a long time. In the north the Russians haven't consolidated their hold in the eastern route to Kiev, either, but ISW claims they've brought reinforcements for a renewed offensive on the capital in the next days. Spending more time isn't good for the Russians, on the short term there's more mud on the roads, and on the mid, the economic impact of sanctions will continue to be felt and warmer weather will make Europeans less reliant on gas. I don't think a slow invasion was on the Kremlin's plans, the timing would be off. They probably miscalculated enemy morale and expected a quick takeover.

The more Ukraine puts up a cohesive war effort now, the more of a real nation it becomes. It's feeding an us-versus-them sentiment and a national myth and the memory will linger on in the future pro-Russian regime in Kiev. How wide the sentiment gets will depend on the fight now (maybe there'll be a breakdown and shock at some point) and the competence of the future regime. A quick breakdown of resistance and Russian takeover would've severely demoralized the nationalists, but that opportunity has been lost.

Bernd 03/08/2022 (Tue) 06:28:23 [Preview] No.46854 del
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already seeing gas prices slowly hike, getting close to $5 in some states even tho most is internally produced.
some people starting to warn about recession...

nice, my mind always thinks *SPAIN* when reading Galicia.

Bernd 03/08/2022 (Tue) 06:52:26 [Preview] No.46855 del
(1.17 MB 432x268 1646611018523.mp4)
(1.06 MB 288x640 wat.mp4)
prolly they somewhat expected somewhat hoped it would be a short and relatively bloodless affair if they could storm in quickly but tread softly, it wasn't so they changed gears to a more conventional approach.
as for the length of the campaign, need to subtract 3 days of negotiations and failed or sabotaged evacuations. there's a 4th attempt at evacuations today so that's another day into the sink.
our strategy is clear, tho. drag this on and hopefully turn it into another afghanistan.

Bernd 03/08/2022 (Tue) 09:16:02 [Preview] No.46856 del
He is not wrong.
Marxist historians criticized (and liberals follow) our participation of WWII (from several angle but now just the cite the relevant) that we held out as the last satellite of the Reich, stretching out and unnecessary war, destruction, and suffering. Same can be applied to Zelensky. As for many opinion, this is right and wrong depending on our viewpoint. Ofc those who criticize us now, wouldn't make the same point about Ukraine.

Bernd 03/08/2022 (Tue) 14:13:09 [Preview] No.46857 del
(30.57 KB 600x432 Z.jpg)

Bernd 03/08/2022 (Tue) 22:06:08 [Preview] No.46869 del
I really like how they draw those red snakes slithering all over. As if the white area in between would be controlled by Ukrainians.
But look at this shit on the side:
>The United Nations has banned its staff form using the words "war" or "invasion" to refer to the situation in Ukraine.
Is the UN controlled by Putin? They did the same in Russia, banned media to call it a war and invasion.
This snippet doesn't say it however what is the official expression.

Bernd 03/09/2022 (Wed) 07:03:16 [Preview] No.46870 del
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wew lad getting over $7 already.
granted it's in some green shithole states but still the average is said to be above 2008-crisis level already.
also we are banning russian crude so trying to mend ties up to iran and venezeula asap lmao.
>warn about recession
crude above $120 yesterday. it's happening, thanks brandon.

Bernd 03/09/2022 (Wed) 15:02:08 [Preview] No.46873 del
Not high enough. The war have to go on.
>mend ties up to iran and venezeula
Flawless plan.

Bernd 03/09/2022 (Wed) 15:07:26 [Preview] No.46874 del
Lotsa ground action today. Will those amass results?

Bernd 03/09/2022 (Wed) 20:13:43 [Preview] No.46875 del
Meanwhile in Russia, hit by sanctions:
First vid was supposedly made on March 2
Second vid on March 8

Bernd 03/09/2022 (Wed) 22:54:07 [Preview] No.46877 del
>gas prices

Actually it is pretty rare example of situation when gas prices in Russia don't go up.

Although now there is big uncertainty about car production and imports (both things literally stopped and it is unknown when they'll start), so gas doesn't help much. Shortage in spare parts for old cars is also expected soon.

Looks like we've going into crisis much larger than in 1998, and 1998 was pretty hard.

Bernd 03/10/2022 (Thu) 07:20:39 [Preview] No.46878 del
He was showing the shelves of a shop and prices there, chiefly the imported stuff. Ofc the gas price is important part of it.
But why I'm thinking gas prices aren't the best measure in case of Russia is that embargoing fossil fuels there will mean that Russia's gonna have an abundance of it on her hand, so in Russia those (including car fuels) should become cheap.
Now that you mention car shortage. That will mean less demand for gas and diesel, further cheapening those.
In the near future really need to find a way to get to Russia buy gas there and come home and sell it. $$$

Bernd 03/10/2022 (Thu) 15:53:33 [Preview] No.46880 del
No, I'm Australian(my flag often plays up). I wish somebody would invade Australia or America though...

Bernd 03/11/2022 (Fri) 15:29:38 [Preview] No.46882 del
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Can't really be called a 'plan' but the media jews are already on it.

Bernd 03/11/2022 (Fri) 19:58:38 [Preview] No.46884 del
This was Putin's plan all along. He saw Venezuelan people struggle so he made this war so they can make peace with the US and import capitalism there and make Venezuela prosperous.

Bernd 03/11/2022 (Fri) 20:01:54 [Preview] No.46885 del
This was Putin's plan all along. He saw Venezuelan people struggle so he made this war so they can make peace with the US and import capitalism there and make Venezuela prosperous.

Bernd 03/11/2022 (Fri) 21:35:04 [Preview] No.46886 del
(1.53 MB 1902x858 2022-03-11-ukraine.png)
Situation fairly similar. Fightings all about. They uploaded an "evacuation routs around Kiev" map, opened it, then closed in the hope for a link to one with a larger resolution. Now it doesn't load at all. The source is a Telegram channel where I can find the map in a smaller resolution. And can't even open it, I think a Telegram acc would be needed for viewing.
Anyway maybe the reason that this thing slowed down is that Russians waiting for Ukrainian civilians to leave. The talks were about evacuation too, that they open routes for them into Russia and Belarus, but it wasn't good enough for Ukraine.
Now open routes towards not Russian controlled areas mean open routes for armaments into the fighting zone for the Ukrainians, supply. So I assume it is not easy to organize everything.

Oh and this shit is funny.
>my poor EU principles
>they were attacked
>am deebly goncerned

Bernd 03/12/2022 (Sat) 16:59:54 [Preview] No.46888 del
Why there is no Ukraine thread?

Bernd 03/12/2022 (Sat) 17:00:50 [Preview] No.46889 del
If you scroll up, you see this is it.

Bernd 03/12/2022 (Sat) 19:45:39 [Preview] No.46890 del
why no seperate thread?

Bernd 03/12/2022 (Sat) 20:36:25 [Preview] No.46891 del
See: >>46549
What is there to discuss anyway? News are unreliable, filtered and overly biased. Despite all the noise and little details giant holes in the events. This map painting war is pathetic (like the livemap shows only lines as Russian controlled areas as if fugging wheat fields would be Ukrainian controlled because Russians don't occupy every individual straw on it; on the other hand the Russian maps show vague areas with Russian military activity). And then many of us here to discuss - for example I'm not sure if it safe for Rusbernd to post anything and Brasilbernd did not show much interest. Even you just asked about the thread instead of adding some content.
I could point out how well this war comes in handy for the West. Higher prices for gas is good for American oil companies. Sending all the war materials from the armories to Ukraine is good for EU based arm factories since they get juicy state contracts. It is great for Germany since now they can fulfill their raise of military spending to 2% of the budget the NATO demands from them, plus getting rid of Russian oil and gas means they can also replace it with green energy, juicy contracts to German companies (like Rheinmetall what we discussed on this board how they are arms manufacturers and hydro power specialists). It is really good for everyone. Except Ukrainians and us who has to receive bunch of gypsies and be happy about it.

Bernd 03/13/2022 (Sun) 12:35:01 [Preview] No.46892 del
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Last week Zirael attacked Damascus. Some building was destroyed. I can't remember the Syrian casualties except that 2 civilians were killed and also 2 Iranian officers.

Bernd 03/13/2022 (Sun) 12:36:40 [Preview] No.46893 del
(527.90 KB 224x352 iraq erbil base 1.mp4)
(1.15 MB 320x528 iraq erbil base 2.mp4)
Last night in Iraq (Erbil, a kurdish "semi-autonomous" region) a US/Mossad base was targeted with several missiles. According to iranian media, the IRGC said it ordered the strike as retaliation.
Very quickly the USA has claimed there were no casualties and no material damages. Some iraqi media has claimed that a few mossad operatives or mercenaries were either killed or injured.

Bernd 03/13/2022 (Sun) 13:08:26 [Preview] No.46894 del
(130.58 KB 600x800 tu-141 crimea.jpg)
(2.35 MB 352x640 tu-141 croatia.mp4)
(63.21 KB 280x157 uaf tu-141.png)
So an old Soviet-era "drone" has apparently flown all the way from somewhere in the Ukraine across the Hungary, entered the Croatia, and crashed on a park in the capital Zagreb after running out of fuel... Lol!?
It was not really a "drone" though by current typical understanding of the term. It was apparently a Tupolev TU-141: a rather big (about the size of a truck), rather heavy (~6 tons), unmanned COOL FUCKING JET that flies at ~1000 km/h!
Another one of these was flown toward crimea and shot down by russian anti-air defenses
Hungary and Croatia are NATO members btw... apparently they just looked at the thing fly by while scratching their heads in confusion
The croatian PM was asked if he will complain to the ukrainian clown. He apparently said that "now it's not the time because they have their hands full at the moment"...
This reminds me that a cargo ship from somewhere in the baltics (I think) sunk off the ukrainian coast a day after ukraine announced that it had fired at an "enemy" vessel. The media has been quiet about that too

Bernd 03/13/2022 (Sun) 14:37:34 [Preview] No.46897 del
(198.00 KB 727x483 tu-141.jpg)
I noticed it in Hungarian news, spent a second contemplating but I did not bother with it.
But ok, here we go.
It happened during the night of 10th. The Tu-141 entered Hungarian airspace from Romania at Csenger a village close to the Ukrainian border. It flew 40 minutes through our country, our air defence followed the course through. Then it left the country and flew 7 more minutes and crashed near lake Jarun.
It has about 1000 km range (on max speed it can travel ~1100 km/h), Croatians say it flew at about 700 km/h, someone sure could guesstimate how much it could spent in the air before traveled about 50 minutes through Romania, Hungary, and Croatia.
Because the big question is where it took off? These things were produced in Ukraine and Russia retired them in 1991. However in the depth of military warehouses both Russia and Belarus might have them, and while Russian bases are too far, Belarus just might be in range. Both Ukraine and Russia denied they launched it. Ukrainian ambassador in Croatia said the crashed drone did not have the Ukrainian mark.
Btw close to Kiev supposedly there is a place called Jarun.
Additional note: till now the Hungarian air force was alarmed three times, twice they raised the Gripens and found nothing much.

I don't believe NATO doesn't have capabilities to track every fucking movement in the air, from those giants Antonovs to gnats, especially in those regions which they have special interest in.

Here's bunch of links:

Bernd 03/13/2022 (Sun) 20:37:02 [Preview] No.46899 del

History repeats as always: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1989_Belgium_MiG-23_crash

>unmanned COOL FUCKING JET that flies at ~1000 km/h!

It is basically a subsonic cruise missile with slightly smarter electronics package.

Bernd 03/13/2022 (Sun) 20:55:06 [Preview] No.46901 del
Haha, holy shit. Imagine the faces of the F-15 pilots when they saw the cockpit is empty.
>killing one capitalist pig in the end
Poor lad.

Bernd 03/13/2022 (Sun) 22:23:16 [Preview] No.46902 del
>News are unreliable, filtered and overly biased
Just like Surian conflict really.

> It is really good for everyone

I don't think it's good for anyone but USA as they consolidated their power and prevented EU-Russia developing ties which could be 3rd polar. USA removed a contender with an excellent move also opened a path for Venezuala and Iran oil. Iran's oil and empowering itself also keeps Israel's power in check.

Bernd 03/13/2022 (Sun) 22:26:10 [Preview] No.46903 del
China and Russia's domestic insanity - 4th letter from the FSB analyst

My translation of the 4th letter in the series from an active FSB analyst to Vladimir Osechkin. Written March 9th. As consequential as the 1st translated letter. Buckle up for a long thread and definitely please share far & wide. The text is over 1200 words.

Vladimir, good afternoon!

This is probably the first time that I’ve been able to write to you in the daytime during a weekday – everything is upside down now.

Under different circumstance, this information would look like utter nonsense, but right now, I am afraid, this won’t be the end of it.

First, we (FSB) are seriously evaluating a version that the current events of war with Ukraine is a war between the US and China, in which the Americans simply set us up and are using us. Now I’ll try to explain succinctly & clearly.

(This is the new ‘nonsensical’ working theory that the FSB analysts are being tasked to work on)

A global clash between the USA and China was unavoidable. After the war started in Ukraine [at least here in this correspondence I don’t have to use the term “operation”] the cost of resources has risen globally, especially energy. The main casualty of these events is China and our side (Russia) provided China certain guarantees, which I can personally confirm – that everything will end quickly (invasion of Ukraine). Which is why China has been tolerating the situation. But this was before.

The American situation is such that owners of the industry and oil drilling are in essence the same corporations, and that helps with the internal balance: They make money on drilling when oil is expensive, and when it’s cheap – from industrial development. This is a bit blunt, but it provides the necessary insight into their approach.

And shales (oil fracking), unlike the classic method (of oil extraction), is easy to stop and start.

Now the US will make an agreement with Venezuela and Iran. They can buy out Venezuelan light crude with a crazy discount. And the opening of the Iranian oil (market) will obviously be perceived with hostility by Saudi Arabia and UEA. The Yemeni conflict is also relevant here, and a row of other factors which I will ignore for the sake of simplicity. But it all leads to the fact that the US had already made preparations for these negotiations in advance.


To read full text use the link, I get text too long error.


Bernd 03/14/2022 (Mon) 04:08:54 [Preview] No.46905 del
>Just like Surian conflict really.

It feels liek almost yesterday that it happened. Time flies I guesso

Why is there still fightin in the Middle East?

Bernd 03/14/2022 (Mon) 04:09:50 [Preview] No.46906 del
Mariupol might fall soon, I have heard it might be taken in a week. Russian Forces and DPR forces are edging closer and closer slowly but surely. That then would greatly ease communications from Russia to the Russian forces around Kherson plus it would free up the forces involved in the Mariupol operation for further offensives. As it is Russian forces are tied up in too many places at once.

But what direction would they go in next? This actually opens up many opportunities for them, but the question is what side of the Dniper will they prioritise? Or will they push along both sides. If they can push through to Kryvi Rih and then on to Dnipro that would put the Ukriaian forces in the Donbass in a real bind and then they could attempt to encircle them after that movement is complete. But they don't have to move on Dnipro first. Either way this doesn't look good for the Ukrainians.

There is also the matter of Odessa, Ukraine's port city and the city where most her exports flow out from(if they still are now anyway). Russia does not need to take it, she could just cut it off but if she does take it it would remove a threat from that region and would better connect her to Transnistria.

Bernd 03/14/2022 (Mon) 04:37:00 [Preview] No.46915 del
Wonder when this thingy is going to end?

oh wow I didn't know things were so bad. This is kinda depressing

>This map painting war is pathetic (like the livemap shows only lines as Russian controlled areas as if fugging wheat fields would be Ukrainian controlled because Russians don't occupy every individual straw on it;

u mean this one?

Bernd 03/14/2022 (Mon) 08:18:24 [Preview] No.46919 del
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>Just like Syrian conflict
Maybe the Syrian conflict was similar for people in Turkey due to proximity, but IMO it's nowhere near the same level for Europe/"the West". No, this is a much greater level of mass propaganda and hysteria. The level of hysteria (even SJW-style petty persecution applied to an entire national group) is something I didn't expect. What's bewildering to me is how entirely hypocritical and bunkum the whole thing is when you compare it (for example) with Nato's destruction of Libya, the most prosperous african country at the time, stealing their gold reservers, killing hundreds of thousands of civilians, directly assassinating its leadership (and their families), turning it into a slave-trading hell hole, etc. Or compare how the liberasts treat the presence of "neo nazi" symbology in right wing protests (like the Trucker Convoy recently) with how they treat avowed "nazi" military battalions in ukraine... and these are the people who have the gall to call *others* "bugmen" because of their supposed lack of critical thinking and agency...
But I do agree that the main beneficiary will be usa if they can successfully shield themselves from the economic fallout (and they can, and they will, e.g. by deflecting it towards europe which will gladly take the hit for its master) and if the dollar-as-reserve doesn't loose too much credibility.
Sounds like Qanon-level drivel

Bernd 03/14/2022 (Mon) 20:02:36 [Preview] No.46928 del
(123.38 KB 1280x898 different-map.jpeg)
Many things similar. But it is much different how it is treated by EU officials and media.
It's good for many, profiting from it in different ways, both individuals and companies.
Iran could profit by pressuring the west leaving their nuke program alone. They have this chance now.

I don't like these mysterious alphabet agencies source based stories.
But it is true that shale oil extracting is relatively expensive and the trick Russia and Saudi pulled back in early 2020 made it unprofitable. Now the price rising and it's profitable again. It is a win for the US oil industry because they rely on it heavily.

Wars often go in parallel. If one door is open another can open.

Civilians leaving Mariupol. When enough leaves the troops there will be crushed.
Odessa is an important target. At the Dnieper, there's Dnipro and Zaporozhya.

That and picrel too. I saw a couple of versions, so someone updates it. I only translated one or two stuff from it tho.

Bernd 03/15/2022 (Tue) 04:01:16 [Preview] No.46929 del
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Does anybody know if the Ukrainians keep their emblems on their vehicles in combat operations? You see plenty of peace time photos of Ukrainian tanks with that cool red Ukrainian cross but so far I don't know that I have seen it on any Ukrainian vehicles in the war. But then we don't see much of them in the first place.

Bernd 03/15/2022 (Tue) 07:30:05 [Preview] No.46930 del
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Cool red Ukrainian cross? You mean like picrel?
>I don't know that I have seen it on any Ukrainian vehicles in the war. But then we don't see much of them in the first place.
Yeah, they disappeared.

Bernd 03/15/2022 (Tue) 07:46:29 [Preview] No.46931 del
Yes those. Are you sure they have disappeared?

Bernd 03/15/2022 (Tue) 07:51:21 [Preview] No.46932 del
No. Ukrainians must concentrate them around Lviv to chase the Russians back to Moscow in a surprise attack in the last second when the war seems lost. Like how Germans did in WWII.

Bernd 03/15/2022 (Tue) 08:04:22 [Preview] No.46933 del
Ohh you mean the vehicles. Maybe, I think much of it is that they just aren't being documented to the degree that Russian losses are, as soon as the Russians lose something the Ukrainian army announces it as well as any peasant near by with a phone. But I still have seen Ukrainian losses but I can't seem to see any of those crosses on them so far.

Bernd 03/15/2022 (Tue) 22:12:07 [Preview] No.46950 del
>cool red Ukrainian cross

It is UA army emblem, these signs rarely used anywhere except on military parades or similar events in any country. Try to find M1 with US army sign from Iraq or such for example.

Bernd 03/16/2022 (Wed) 11:04:15 [Preview] No.46953 del
Third video of Lars. Heinz beans and Swedish break pads. Not sure which day, aired on March 15.
Seems buckwheat and sugar is low in the shop, but that's just because people suddenly started to buy more.

Bernd 03/16/2022 (Wed) 14:35:09 [Preview] No.46956 del
Apparently the US and NATO are going to send Soviet era AA systems to Ukraine including S-300s. It makes some sense, they are probably going to go on a buying spree to try and get as much Soviet equipment from as many people as possible.

Although, the Russian air force has not actually been all that active in this war, certainly not as active as it could be.

Bernd 03/16/2022 (Wed) 19:36:38 [Preview] No.46958 del
Need to get it out of the garage then. Tell 'em it's well preserved

Bernd 03/16/2022 (Wed) 20:49:51 [Preview] No.46959 del
(261.11 KB 1920x1440 petrol-today.jpg)

His region has really good fuel prices.

(that's not Lukoil though, but it is only slightly cheaper here)

Bernd 03/16/2022 (Wed) 22:54:00 [Preview] No.46960 del
(2.38 MB 640x352 donetsk.mp4)
(22.34 KB 535x246 friendship.png)
>subsonic cruise missile
Wonder how maneuverable it is. It seems like that one got out of control
>I don't believe NATO doesn't have capabilities to track
Yes, that's why I joke that they just confusedly looked at it fly by. But then again, why wasn't it shot down?
I wonder if this will be another "fighters" narrative that they will milk for more than a week.
They produced 3 waves of that story and 3 times it came to nothing: 1st, it was a chief eurocrat confidently trotting it out and some days later all 3 EU countries with migs declined; 2nd, it was the US saying it would replace them with f16s but after giving it some time for hype to spread Poland said it couldn't fly them in nor lend its own airfields; 3rd, it was Poland taking the initiative but again after some time US said it couldn't fly then in from Germany either. Most likely this was deliberate, whether or not there was ever a serious intention to carry out with actions what they announced to the media. As the jew york times acknowledged: "it's fine when we peddle lies, deception, or disinformation; it can raise the morale of our proxies"

Btw, there's another instance of unconfirmed "atrocity propaganda" doing the rounds: a playhouse was blown up, some voices claim azov was inside others claim there were civs, with claims and counter-claims about who exploded the thing. What's different about the previous "maternity hospital" story is that this time there are pre-existing records of warnings about a potential false flag at that building.
However, while such stories are widely spread in western media (because of the easy anti-russia spin), there's something that happened last Monday that got very little press. Something exploded over the city of Donetsk. The local govt claimed it was a missile which they (partially?) intercepted, while Kiev claimed they didn't launch it. Whatever it was, stuff seems to have crashed into a residential area. Afaik there is no foreign media there so almost nobody reported it, also because it can be spun as pro-rebels/rus.
I have only found this video which shows signs of explosions (see 2 or maybe 3 shock waves in the shape of windows reflected over the shadow of a building cast on the road) and something crashing/exploding into a building. The DPR says it was a cluster bomb and among wounded and killed they claim dozens of casualties, all civs
Whether true or not, I wonder if this will be used as justification for russia to start using heavy ordnance. E.g. why is russia not destroying or damaging the roads leading to poland, slovakia and romania where weapons are coming from and where those S-300 would presumably come from? Wouldn't it be useful to at least slow down traffic there? Similarly, why aren't they just bombarding everything in the fortified Donbass contact line where lots of ukr troops are deployed? Nearly 20 (minus ~5) days in and they still seem reluctant to go all in. Meanwhile both sides continue to suffer significant attrition, to the delight of foreign puppetmasters. I wonder if russia isn't confusing stoicism and stolidity...

Bernd 03/17/2022 (Thu) 05:02:03 [Preview] No.46962 del
Mariupol is even closer to falling, the defence is about to collapse so it might be a matter of days now. Russian VDV managed to cross the Ipin and establish a foothold on the other side, this will be useful to them for further operations towards Kiev. Some more territory was taken in the Donbas but that is usual, however the Ukrainians are now starting to send troops from the Donbas to Kiev and other fronts, they probably realise that their forces in the Donbas might be cut off soon. The Ukrainians announced counter attacks in numerous locations, they did not achieve anything.

The Russians reorganised forces, they are also moving forces in from other areas and even from Georgia. The Ukrainians are continuing to raise forces and receive NATO arms, it's pretty certain that they outnumber the Russians, they probably did before as the Russians had 190,000 troops in the area and the Ukrainians had 150,000-170,000 professional troops but they also have reserves and 900,000 paramilitaries, plus whatever has been called up since the war began. However, the while the Ukrainians are receiving hand held equipment from NATO they are not receiving any armour, APCs or IFVs so far, so while the masses of Ukrainians will be able to fight defensively in urban areas quite well they are going to lack the ability to go on the offensive effectively(unless they want to accept huge losses).

Bernd 03/17/2022 (Thu) 21:40:15 [Preview] No.46969 del
>why wasn't it shot down?
1. It was Ukrainian, considered friendly.
2. It was Russian, then it would have been an act of aggression.
Probably came without any warning or information or broadcast or I dunno, probably even without a warning from some NATO higher up who already knew it's in the air and it's expected course due to their gadgets, so the air defense of the countries just followed and did not dare to do anything with it not to cause some diplomatic complication or WW III. They saw what happens next and nothing much happened.

Bernd 03/17/2022 (Thu) 23:41:46 [Preview] No.46970 del
>Wonder how maneuverable it is.

Not much. It was designed for relatively long flights with high speed. In 60s speed and altitude were considered much more important for avoiding AA defenses (look at strategic bomber projects and their counters - interceptors of that era). Electronics also weren't too good to allow complex remote control anyway.

There is good site (in Russian though) about military planes, and it has pretty large articles about both Tu-141 and Tu-143:


>It seems like that one got out of control

It is very old, and I guess all components already gone through expiration date multiple times.

>900,000 paramilitaries

That looks very exaggerated. Ukraine may have millions in reserves on paper (everyone from 18 to 65 with average health are able to serve in army), but it impossible to mobilize them in current situation.

Bernd 03/18/2022 (Fri) 06:20:00 [Preview] No.46971 del
Maybe not, they include people who served in the army before hand as well in that number plus before the war there was always articles about Ukrainians volunteering to join militias. It's probably correct and does not include new recruits which they have a lot of as well(I know they were running out of weapons to hand to volunteer militia in the early days, don't know about now). There have also been large numbers joining the Foreighn legions, over 20,000 apparently. Though after the missile attack on the training base near Lviv many of them became disillusioned and are fleeing, I really don't know what they expected, it's a war. But having said all that, they probably have not mobilised them all yet. It's really impossible to say just how many have been mobilised plus how many new militia have been added.

Bernd 03/18/2022 (Fri) 08:48:43 [Preview] No.46972 del
>Nearly 20 (minus ~5) days in and they still seem reluctant to go all in.
Their intentions and goals aren't really clear. Maybe on purpose maybe not. Here we got in the news 10+ days back that "Putin's blitzkrieg plan failed!", while do we know he planned a blitzkrieg? No. Not to mention that who would expect anyone go through Ukraine in a week?
What can be heard that Putin is evil dictator that's why he does everything.
Ofc there were articles before, one I referred to in particular, that an analyst said Putin wants southern Ukraine from those people republics to Odessa everything. Judging by the maps we can see that seems to come together. But can we know that is the plan?
There are certain things that could be good for Russia, liek a Belarus type of Ukraine. So guesses, we can have those.

The fights are in Mariupol now.
Even if Ukraine can raise troops locally fast, they are untrained and disorganized.

Bernd 03/18/2022 (Fri) 11:24:32 [Preview] No.46973 del
>do we know he planned a blitzkrieg? No.
I think we can safely assume that Russia did plan this war to go fast.
War is a cost, and it's not just cash. People are dying, Russia relations with other countries are damaged, citizens might get angry, oligarchs might get angry, all the other higher ups in Russia might get angry, economic sanctions etc. etc. The sooner fighting stops the sooner Putin can focus on dealing with those things.
I think it's a pretty normal military doctrine since probably ancient times that you want to win the war as fast as possible. Now in the past that might not be possible to wrap things up in a week, but we've been building all those fancy APCs and IFVs and helicopters and planes and that certainly wasnt so we can have soldiers sitting faster in a trench warfare.
Then we had reports of Russian military running out of fuel at day 2 or 3 or something, Russian soldiers walking up to civilians or police stations and asking for gas. It's like whoever planned this really expected things to go swimmingly and that locals will be eager to help the attacking force and welcome them as liberators.

Bernd 03/18/2022 (Fri) 11:45:22 [Preview] No.46974 del
Planning on the shortest amount of time and having a "blitzkrieg" is two different things. When a journalist use this word (in Hungarian it's "lightning war") they use it for the picturesque impression, and the effect it creates.
>Russian military running out of fuel
I heard that, sounds like bs. Similar on the level of the Bri'ish WWI propaganda which said the Germans making soap from their dead soldiers.
>It's like whoever planned this
>expected things
Again we have no idea what they planned, or what they did expect. All we can hear about it is Ukrainian and Western blahblah, and imegaboard tier memes.
We don't really know what's going on. Liek where is the Ukrainian air force and tanks and artillery and all that shiny crap? For all we know it could be all destroyed, in this case Russia did a swell job so far... - we could take facts and shine different light on them, construct different tales, and we could arrive to different conclusions. We could say they go slow to give time for civvies to evacuate, the blown up hospitals were bioweapon labs, and the kindergartners were dwarfs with rpgs. For all we know it could have been.

Bernd 03/18/2022 (Fri) 13:07:20 [Preview] No.46975 del
There is fighting outside of Mariupol as well. The Ukrainians managed to push the Russians back from Mykolaiv but DPR and LPR forces are also slowly but surely gaining ground in the Donbas. Russian and LPR forces also managed to take more ground around Sievierodonetesk, there is a large Ukrainian force there that they are working on isolating.

The 900,000 paramilitaries are not untrained, many are former soldiers and the rest are militia(so poorly trained granted) but yes any new forces will be untrained.

Maybe, some of the early actions seemed to indicate that they hoped to win the war with a relativity fast and bloodless coup but then that does not mean they fully expected that, after all if there is even a small chance of winning such a victory then it makes sense to take it.

While yes it makes sense to win a war as fast as possible in some ways that can cause issues of it's own. The Russians have no shortage of artillery and could probably use that to make things progress allot faster but that would also take a huge toll on the civilian population. Even ignoring that rushing could cause them severe losses in battle and it could also cause them to overextend and get cut off. I don't think they have the forces to spare for large rapid offensives, not until they take Mariupol at least and then we will see if that changes things.

Bernd 03/18/2022 (Fri) 22:07:24 [Preview] No.46979 del
AlJazeera says:
>Ukraine says more than 9,100 people were evacuated from Ukrainian cities through humanitarian corridors on Friday.
>More than half of those evacuated – 4,972 people – left the besieged city of Mariupol.
Considering Mariupol has a population of ~400 000, that 5000 isn't that much. How many were evacuated from day x when the evacuation started?

Bernd 03/20/2022 (Sun) 18:04:00 [Preview] No.46989 del
>No, this is a much greater level of mass propaganda and hysteria.
News are still biased plus there is hard cencorship. I don't see how is different.
And I don't care what europe thinks, they make mss propoganda and spread fake news everywhere, why would I deem this conflict more special?

>Maybe the Syrian conflict was similar for people in Turkey due to proximity

Both events are around our proximity. We're Ukraine's one of the few functioning and trused allies and we are neightbours by sea.

Bernd 03/21/2022 (Mon) 00:59:05 [Preview] No.46992 del
(65.31 MB 1280x720 liberated mariupol.mp4)
Some video from Mariupol I though I'd share

Where will all those people go to though?


>why would I deem this conflict more special?
It's the current thing now? There's plenty of wars going around nowadays. This one may maybe lead to WWIII. Maybe

Bernd 03/21/2022 (Mon) 01:03:35 [Preview] No.46993 del
(1.56 MB 1080x1021 Enter mit Fingers.png)
Currently conversing with people I know from Ukraine atm. Situation's pretty bad. They kinda want to keep in constant contact with them until this entire thing is all ogre

Bernd 03/22/2022 (Tue) 15:25:52 [Preview] No.47009 del
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NATO are cowards, they should be invading Russia now, it's a perfect chance and would eliminate Russia as an adversary once and for all.

Bernd 03/22/2022 (Tue) 16:23:34 [Preview] No.47012 del
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Bernd 03/23/2022 (Wed) 11:35:34 [Preview] No.47022 del
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I think I already mentioned much of this in this thread. But still, it's interesting. I wonder if any other militaries are covering this in such a manner.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=p4I07aRlPcQ [Embed]

Bernd 03/23/2022 (Wed) 16:07:39 [Preview] No.47024 del
I had relative on Ukraine, we lost contact with her and genuinely though she was killed. She lived in a literal warzone. Thankfully managed to escape to Poland and sent us a message she's allright.

Bernd 03/24/2022 (Thu) 13:46:16 [Preview] No.47042 del
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>you will hate whomever we say you hate and you will be happy
There were the Yugo wars in the neighbour at our doorstep, with greater destruction, and actual ethnic cleansing (and indiscriminate NATO bombing), now everyone pretends none of those happened.

>I don't see how is different.
I think that "current thing" meme describes it well. It's some "big" issue flooding the media, everything else basically a footnote. I open up a random news site, the landing page is:
>something else
Before that it was covid (and some BLM and Taiwan mixed in), but before that it wasn't this bad. Maybe the 2016 US Prez election was similar. Syrian war was an occasional thing and 2011 must sounds ancient times for many. Sure 2015 migrant crisis was in the focus, but then it wasn't this bad, with a recurring atrocities that happened in Europe. If anything those were played down as much as possible, just couple of events were really "penetrative", like the Charlie Hebdo shooting. Noone reembers the theater attack in Paris now.

>Some video from Mariupol I though I'd share
>Where will all those people go to though?
Men will stay since they are forbidden to leave. Some still leaves. But generally those people can go to Russia, or elsewhere in Ukraine. They can flee to neighbouring countries, mostly to Poland. But Romania/Moldova is closer from there.

Some Slovene on bernd.group says a nuclear war would be nothing.

Do they (we, actually) have a collective offense article somewhere?

>I wonder if any other militaries are covering this in such a manner.
They have way better understanding on whats going on due to the fact that they have information about the situation. Military intelligence exist, and I bet all the other agencies are stuffing them with info.

>escape to Poland
Situation indeed must be very desperate if getting into Poland counts as an "escape".

Bernd 03/24/2022 (Thu) 13:53:33 [Preview] No.47043 del
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>They have way better understanding on whats going on due to the fact that they have information about the situation. Military intelligence exist, and I bet all the other agencies are stuffing them with info.

True but I mean are they releasing stuff like this to the public? Also interesting in all of this, Austria isn't in Nato so they would not be a party to much of that intelligence anyway. Maybe that's part of the reason why they are making this, because they are more neutral and so they can.

Bernd 03/24/2022 (Thu) 17:43:18 [Preview] No.47047 del
>Do they (we, actually) have a collective offense article somewhere?
Im not sure, but we did attack Afghanistan, no?
Someone could stage a false flag attack using russian equipment to provoke a military response from NATO as described in article 5 haha.... Nah it wont happen. Just a crazy thought I had. No one would ever do that.

Bernd 03/24/2022 (Thu) 20:58:46 [Preview] No.47049 del
>True but I mean are they releasing stuff like this to the public?
Maybe, to some extent. Main thing is for the political and economical leadership the public must have a way of thinking which is created by the media. The armies mustn't allowed to publish anything that goes against this. Even that Austrian video, he speaks mostly in generalities. I hear him mentioning various units from both sides which is new to me (I only saw that website somewhere above I posted, giving info about Russian units), but even that is vague.
They have other interesting videos on that channel, for example this:
https://youtube.com/watch?v=5n7jAXgxFRQ [Embed]
How a Russian "tactical battalion group" works. I assume it's kind of a kampfgruppe.

That was a police operation!!!
>false flag attack using russian equipment to provoke a military response from NATO
That tu-141 incident sounds like one.

Bernd 03/25/2022 (Fri) 11:35:18 [Preview] No.47054 del
High-quality footage of landing ship loss: https://youtube.com/watch?v=7g5ZVwDqLRg [Embed]

Bernd 03/25/2022 (Fri) 12:19:39 [Preview] No.47055 del
If this is true that's pretty big. But I don't really think it is, I don't think Russia is actually negotiating in good faith. They have crossed the Rubicon and I don't think that they will accept anything other than total victory.

But it doesn't show the missile impact, I want to see that to make sure it was one. I think it probably was but it also could have done a Mutsu.

Bernd 03/25/2022 (Fri) 21:45:13 [Preview] No.47058 del
So it's about a month now. Up until this point it was asked when will Russia defeat Ukraine? Now we can ask another question. When the sanctions will defeat Russia?
The war is ongoing, there are results, especially in the south, Kherson, Energodar, and they soon finish up Mariupol (according to Al Jazeera, Russians moved into the city center yesterday). If that's done, the freed up troops can be moved further. Will they take seriously the negotiations if they can have a better position at the table if they have a better position on the fronts?
Sanctions are ongoing, and there are some results. They made the life uncomfortable and unsure enough for quite a few Russian whom looking for opportunities now in other countries. There seems to be shortages, especially in grains and sugar. But to be honest in these two, the shortage is the result of the sudden over purchase by the customers who are filling up the pantry just in case. Like the corona tp panic buying. I doubt Russia imports grain and sugar from the US and Western Europe. They can produce grain, and I think sugar is coming from Brazil, if I have to guess. In worst case scenario they could even grow sugar beet on the long term.
Along with several countries we vetoed sanctioning the Russian fossil fuel export today.

Btw NATO builds up forces in Eastern Europe, they move ~40K soldiers hereabout. Battlegroups are set up, here we put together one pure Hungarian, and it seems an international one will also raised in our country, with the participation of US, Croat, Turkish, Italian, and Montenegrin troops.

Bernd 03/26/2022 (Sat) 02:34:18 [Preview] No.47062 del
(1.95 MB 1920x1280 ZZC 1359.jpg)
Alright, so yesterday on the 25th of March the Head of the Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation Colonel General Sergei Rudskoy gave a speech. I actually found it, it was posted in English on the Russian militaries website, but I had to use an Austrian proxy to access it.

I'll post the link but others might not be able to access it so I will mention some key points, like anything in this war, take it with a grain of salt.

So, they say the main goal of the 'special military operation' was to protect the people of Luhansk and Donetsk who they say were being genocided.

>There were two possible courses of action.
>The first is to limit the territory to only the DPR and the LPR within the administrative borders of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions, which is enshrined in the constitutions of the republics. But then we would be faced with constant feeding by the Ukrainian authorities of the grouping involved in the so-called joint force operation.
>Therefore, the second option was chosen, which provides for actions throughout the territory of Ukraine with the implementation of measures for its demilitarization and denazification.
>The course of the operation confirmed the validity of this decision.

They are saying that there plan was to cut of Ukrainian units and to destroy there fighting ability, which they say they have achieved.

>These actions are carried out with the aim of causing such damage to military infrastructure, equipment, personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the results of which allow not only to shackle their forces and do not give them the opportunity to strengthen their grouping in the Donbass, but also will not allow them to do so until the Russian army completely liberates the territories of the DPR and LPR.
>Initially, we did not plan to storm them in order to prevent destruction and minimize losses among personnel and civilians.
>And although we do not rule out such a possibility, however, as individual groups complete their tasks, and they are being solved successfully, our forces and means will concentrate on the main thing – the complete liberation of Donbass.

Bernd 03/26/2022 (Sat) 02:34:38 [Preview] No.47063 del

>16 main military airfields were defeated, from which combat sorties of the AFU aviation were carried out. 39 storage bases and arsenals were destroyed, which contained up to 70% of all stocks of military equipment, materiel and fuel, as well as more than 1 million 54 thousand tons of ammunition.
>All 24 formations of the Land Forces that existed before the start of the operation suffered significant losses. Ukraine has no organized reserves left.
>Losses are replenished at the expense of mobilized persons and personnel of the territorial defence forces who do not have the necessary training, which increases the risk of large losses.
>At the time of the start of the special military operation, the Armed Forces of Ukraine, together with the National Guard, numbered 260 thousand 200 servicemen. During the month of hostilities, their losses amounted to about 30 thousand people, including more than 14 thousand - irretrievable and about 16 thousand - sanitary.
>Of the 2,416 tanks and other armored fighting vehicles that were in combat on February 24, 1,587 units were destroyed; 636 units out of 1,509 field artillery guns and mortars; 163 out of 535 MLRS; 112 out of 152 aircraft, 75 out of 149 helicopters; 36 Bayraktar TB2 UAVs - 35;

Then there is a bunch of stuff about Humanitarian aid and such and then more on NATO aid and foreign mercenaries, yada yada.

And they close with this.

>We receive a large number of appeals from Russian citizens wishing to take part in the special military operation to liberate Ukraine from Nazism.
>In addition, more than 23,000 foreigners from 37 countries have expressed their willingness to fight on the side of the people's republics. We offered the leadership of the LPR and DPR to accept this assistance, but they said they would defend their land themselves.
>They have enough power and resources.
>The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation will continue to conduct a planned special military operation until the tasks set by the Supreme Commander-in-Chief have been completed.

So they seem to think they are doing fine at least.

Bernd 03/26/2022 (Sat) 02:36:14 [Preview] No.47064 del
So if I post without a Proxy as an Australian, this website thinks I am American but if I use an Austrian proxy it thinks I am French...

Bernd 03/26/2022 (Sat) 09:43:46 [Preview] No.47071 del
(4.09 MB 720x1280 trop-1.mp4)
Finally, the legendary insignia. But even then, it's only on this one vehicle so far, sad.

Bernd 03/27/2022 (Sun) 14:19:15 [Preview] No.47075 del
Since Berdiansk is already in Russian control, those are Russian ships there?

I doubt Ukrainians negotiating in good faith. Zelensky and co. was probably told to drag things as long as possible (they're gonna have a free ride out secured if things gets too hot anyway), so western/US companies can earn on the wartime boom. Besides now that many Russian companies are done in large part of the world, westerners have to take their places and earn more.
>They have crossed the Rubicon
Yes, whatever was their intention and original goals, after Western media campaign they can't accept anything less then total victory or it can be turned into prestige loss, no matter how large would be the gain. Actually, we are told that the steps Western powers took are devastating so whatever the result will be, we will be told Russia lost the war.
>But it doesn't show the missile impact
I assume the bloke started to film after he saw the impact.


Bernd 03/27/2022 (Sun) 14:27:37 [Preview] No.47076 del
Knows your true colors.

Bernd 03/27/2022 (Sun) 14:49:18 [Preview] No.47077 del
Could open the page and read it, thanks.
Essentially it's a list, with some commentary/narration about the liberation of the Donbas, Nazis in Ukraine, and demilitarization.
There are quite bold claims about the reduction of the fighting capability of the Ukrainian army, if those are true we shall see the resistance crumbling.
Saw other interesting points, maybe I'll return to those.

Bernd 03/27/2022 (Sun) 20:27:37 [Preview] No.47078 del
Thanks, those are interesting. One thing it does not clarify is whether the reconnaissance data is radio-transmitted in real time back to control centres, or stored in place (magnetic tapes?) for later retrieval and decoding.
German engineer?
Hmm. A "subsonic cruise missile"-type aircraft of ~5.3 tons and capable of flying at up to 1100 km/h has unexpectedly entered the country's airspace and appears to be flying out of control. It's OK if it comes from Ukr but an act of aggression if it comes from Rus? I'm not convinced. What if the thing fell onto a residence? It did fall close to an urban area after all...
Milanovic, from one of those articles:
>the drone flew in from Ukraine, at an altitude of 1,300 metres, at a speed of over 500 knots [over 926 km/h]
>but was not detected in real-time by anyone's air defenses
>Milanovic underlined ... how troubling it is that the drone was not detected during its relatively long flight, stating: “What I wonder is, how is it possible that an unsophisticated drone had flown unnoticed for nearly an hour in the air space of NATO member states, and that nobody noticed... the joint NATO command in Spain that should have all the information in real-time, in the shortest possible period of time and react, yet nothing happened”
>we must ascertain ... how come a drone the size of an airplane was not struck down on its path from evidently Ukraine to Zagreb
>The radars detected it
So it was radar-detected but not in real time? Meaning, people only noticed after going back and looking at radar recordings? That might explain why fighters weren't scrambled to intercept it, if it is true that no fighters did. I think this is plausible because otherwise it would be quite strange for them to allow it to fall on Zagreb. They would have shot it down sooner while over unpopulated terrain.
As for the origin, I don't see why Rus/Belorus would do this. There are many videos from this conflict demonstrating that Rus have their own surveillance drones, no need to take this old thing, mothballed for ~30 years, out the hangar. If it was launched by Ukr, was it accident or deliberate? An accident is easy to imagine: the thing is not very maneuverable, very old, it could have gone out of control. However, if so, one would expect Ukr to inform its NATO benefactors, to warn them of the danger (the thing flew for nearly an hour, there was surely time for a warning call). But if, as stated, the thing was not detected in real time (which would be supported by the idea that fighters were not sent to intercept it), then nobody warned Romania/Hungary/Croatia of the incident. (Ukraine also publicly denied having launched it and claimed that the aircraft did not have the Ukr coat of arms logo, but those prove nothing: public denial is not incompatible with private acknowledgement of an accident, and a false-flag by definition doesn't use its flag of origin. [The photo of the alleged Tu-141 shot down in Crimea also does not have the Ukr paint job, it seems to have a red star instead]) If it was deliberate then it would be a false-flag attempt to draw NATO into the conflict. We have seen kiev repeatedly try to goad and guilt-trip nato into getting involved, so, although crazy, I think this is not unimaginable. (They use the phrase "no-fly zone" as if by the mere declaration this becomes a thing. Actually what they ask is nato to enter the war on their side)
I'm just saying that in Europe it is different from the Syria conflict, due to the massive media and political buzz. As I said, maybe it is the same in Turkey and I don't have a problem believing that it is

Bernd 03/27/2022 (Sun) 20:31:14 [Preview] No.47079 del
>an act of aggression if it comes from Rus?
Shooting it down. Russia is still considered neutral. If we had shot it down, that would have looked awful.

Bernd 03/27/2022 (Sun) 20:56:42 [Preview] No.47081 del
>romania and serbia sieze the day.jpg
That is clearly shopped.
The other one I can imagine appeared in American news. In case of CNN it could be even a deliberate mistake, a rap, a humiliation.
Hungary entered WWII after someone bombed Kassa just after Barbarossa started. This provided the casus belli. Couple of houses were damaged (a post office and a liek), not sure about lost lives from the top of my head. Up till this day noone knows who dropped the bombs, everyone and their grandmothers were blamed for it, Soviet, Germans, Romanians, Northern Hungarians, Hungarians. Who wanted us entering the war? Who profited from it? Who had access to the used bombs and airplane. All the same story as this drone bs.
Infa 100% NATO command and all the allied militaries knew about it coming, politicians might not. They most likely not. But they are the ones who talk about it, and they have to talk about it, because great news, and again they can appear important and in action, busy, demanding and coordinating, checking, and sending messages and having talks and whatnot.
The drone flew about an hour in Romania, Hungary, and Croatia. I think when it was detected the officer on duty decided just to keep an eye on it, maybe initiated requests of info what's going on, and what should they do. If at every stop on every level the messages and inquires spent couple of minutes unhandled that easily amassed that 1 hour. By the time the word got around, it fell out of the skies. After that hurrying wasn't a priority.

Bernd 03/27/2022 (Sun) 21:54:38 [Preview] No.47082 del
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There has been some degree of barbarism spreading over ukrainian cities/towns. There are dozens of videos showing civilians being publicly punished and humiliated by an assortment of soldiers, police, para-militaries, civilian mobs, and whatnot. Children and women are also being mistreated like this. The reasons are simply unknown but there are many accusations and speculations: alleged theft or desertion, lurking outside in curfew, being pro-russian, a separatist, speaking russian in public, etc. These public humiliation displays are apparently not a new development: there are similar videos from previous years. People have pointed out that the same kind of public punishments (tying people up on lamp posts, beating them, humiliating them, leaving them out in the cold) have been carried out before around the time of WW2 (there are some pics)
On the MSM this is mostly ignored. The pro-ukr mouthpieces that do comment on it are simply taking the words of the accusers at face value ("they must be looters, the punishment is deserved"). I showed some of these videos to some pro-ukr NPCs around me (people who support ukr because "it's the current right thing to do", not because they have any personally-developed conviction or knowledge of the conflict) and they were quite disgusted, though.
More recently, I have seen video of what appear to be ukr troops deliberately maiming what appear to be rus/lndr prisoners (shooting them on the legs). There's also video of a ukr soldier calling the mother of a fallen rus soldier to mock her. The brutality of the Donbas civil war is still around

>I don't see why Rus/Belorus would do this
Actually, one plausible theory is that the thing may work as a decoy to smoke out air defenses
Hm. Yeah, maybe. Maybe Milanovic just wasn't informed and he projected his ignorance on NATO. Who knows.
>But it doesn't show the missile impact
I read some people saying it could have been a barrage of MLRS rather than a missile. It could explain the widespread fire
>They have crossed the Rubicon and I don't think that they will accept anything other than total victory.
Officially, the goals of the "victory" have been the same from the start: LNDR independence, recognition of Crimea, neutrality, "demilitarisation", and "denazifiation". What the first 3 mean seems pretty clear. The meaning of the last 2 is less clear. Unofficially, though, there have been some vague pronouncements that suggest that rus could go further than that ("if they continue in this path they put into question the continuation of ukr statehood"). You seem to be taking the latter as the real meaning of "victory" while I thought that was just a negotiating position or a threat.

Bernd 03/27/2022 (Sun) 23:02:07 [Preview] No.47085 del
>I doubt Ukrainians negotiating in good faith. Zelensky and co. was probably told to drag things as long as possible (they're gonna have a free ride out secured if things gets too hot anyway), so western/US companies can earn on the wartime boom. Besides now that many Russian companies are done in large part of the world, westerners have to take their places and earn more.
>Yes, whatever was their intention and original goals, after Western media campaign they can't accept anything less then total victory or it can be turned into prestige loss, no matter how large would be the gain. Actually, we are told that the steps Western powers took are devastating so whatever the result will be, we will be told Russia lost the war.
Even if Zelensky wanted to accept a reasonable deal (e.g. accepting Russian control of the Donbass and Crimea, abandoning the idea of joining NATO and some minor internal changes), he could get immediately overthrown if the Ukrainian elite or military brass think they can still fight. On the other side, Putin has no reason to accept moderate gains if he has reason to think Western sanctions wouldn't significantly weaken - if he's getting harsh sanctions one way or another, he might as well push for the largest possible gains. Both tendencies lead to a long and bitter war.

> There are dozens of videos showing civilians being publicly punished and humiliated by an assortment of soldiers, police, para-militaries, civilian mobs, and whatnot. Children and women are also being mistreated like this. The reasons are simply unknown but there are many accusations and speculations: alleged theft or desertion, lurking outside in curfew, being pro-russian, a separatist, speaking russian in public, etc.
In part that's just the nature of total war, which requires the repression of draft dodgers, disturbers of public order, deserters, defeatists, apologists for the enemy, potential fifth columnists, enemy infiltrators and so on. States will enforce that very brutally if they feel the need to. But it's not just that, it's also hate.

Bernd 03/28/2022 (Mon) 20:04:25 [Preview] No.47086 del
I would say that's the level of people there, the darkest minds sovok can produce. But what would have happened with that Rittenhouse kid if he had not shot the blokes there? If I really want to cite an example. Because people will always find an excuse to abuse others.
Pro-Ukraine western media is quite hypocritical in this (too).

>may work as a decoy to smoke out air defenses
Do some relatively harmless stuff as bait for provoking reaction, observe it, make deductions, and build the gained info into the plans. It's a type of recon.

While both in Croatia and here the President of the Republic technically is the high commander of the army, I doubt he gets alarmed by the military every time someone farts. What could Milanovic or Áder do anyway? Get an AK and shoot at the sky? I do really think NATO knew what's going on and decided it's mostly harmless. Then came morning and the people wanted answers. But the morning the prez just woke up too so he needed to get infos too. Then started the whole bs, because the only thing he could reply to the people was: we're looking into it, because that's what he did at the time. Milanovic asked the Croat military, they said this happened, came from Hungary, so he called Orbán asking what's up, and Orbán asked our military, and called back Milanovic and said this was up. Meanwhile they also called Iohannis in Bucharest and asked what's up and NATO HQ too with sames, and ofc Zelensky and Putin and Lukashenko (well probably not really them just ambassadors, who called back home too). There was a whole lotta phonecalls back and fourth and across, that took time especially when all sides take their time.
>put into question the continuation of ukr statehood"
They can install another govt and prez too.

>he could get immediately overthrown if the Ukrainian elite or military brass think they can still fight
That's the question if they still have any capabilities left. While not taking that Russian report here >>47062 entirely srsly, I have to assume Ukraine suffered high losses, especially in material/technical and logistical means.
>if he's getting harsh sanctions one way or another, he might as well push for the largest possible gains.

Bernd 03/29/2022 (Tue) 05:07:10 [Preview] No.47088 del
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Some villages captured, some lost, some who even knows what state they are in, but things seem to be heating up in Mariupol and more footage is coming out(from Chechens in particular). They are making progress there but who knows how much longer it will take. Some of the footage is interesting because it shows separate units of the Russian army in close cooperation, you see Chechens, Russian naval Infantry and Russian soldiers operating right along side each other. Of course there is a bias here, the regular Russians don't film much but the Chechens do, if they film everything and that includes the odd time they meet up with Russians and so much of the footage we have of Russian soldiers in action is filmed by Chechens, then it will look like they work close to Russians much more than they do.

This Chechen footage also makes it look like Syria...

It's a concern, but then they are Slavs, they were never known for being nice. There is the nature of the war as well, the Russians are Slavs as well but what they are sending in is mostly professional(or at least conscripts) plus DPR and LPR who are something weird that contain an unknown percentage of actual Russian soldiers anyway and the reason they say they are there is that they are going there for the Ukrainian people to get rid of tyrant Nazis so they really can't afford to go around doing anything too nasty. However, while the regular Ukrainian army may actually be professional(and more so than the Russians as they are actually professional not conscripts) a large part of the Ukrainian forces and perhaps even the majority of them now are made up of paramilitaries and militia including groups like Azov Battalion and Right Sector. These guys clearly are not going to play by the same rule book as the regular Ukrainian army. So it may be that these actions are being taken by these extremists groups not the regulars. Not that this excuses it at all.

Bernd 03/29/2022 (Tue) 05:13:48 [Preview] No.47089 del
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Also a weird video showing them operating with Russians. There are better ones showing it but I did not save them.

Bernd 03/29/2022 (Tue) 08:04:40 [Preview] No.47090 del
Cool videos. Feel free to post more or link them.
>makes it look like Syria...
Has that vibe, yes.
Looks like actual war footage. I did not go out of my way to find videos, I just saw very few that actually shows hits or even shootings.
Probably Chechens have practice in these things.

>plus DPR and LPR
Gave me an idea.
Perhaps the difference between the Russian losses reported by Ukraine and Russia - besides the bias of both - can be explained that Russians provide numbers that are only their own, while Ukrainians group the losses of those republics with the Russian numbers. Maybe even Chechen numbers play some role too.

Bernd 03/29/2022 (Tue) 12:03:52 [Preview] No.47091 del
It's nice to see where the ADF get there information from.

Bernd 03/29/2022 (Tue) 13:00:16 [Preview] No.47092 del
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Bernd 03/29/2022 (Tue) 16:37:12 [Preview] No.47093 del
>German engineer?

Probably a Jew, although maybe German from locals (there is no reliable info).

>One thing it does not clarify is whether the reconnaissance data is radio-transmitted in real time back to control centres, or stored in place (magnetic tapes?) for later retrieval and decoding.

Internet says that both methods were used, although I don't think radio channel was good in 70s, so it is additional, not main mode.

>The photo of the alleged Tu-141 shot down in Crimea also does not have the Ukr paint job, it seems to have a red star instead

It has square around red star that is identified as remains of new UA logo painted over old one using not so good paint.

>one would expect Ukr to inform its NATO benefactors, to warn them of the danger (the thing flew for nearly an hour, there was surely time for a warning call)

If it was Ukrainian it malfunctioned so they may don't know where it is flying or if it is flying at all. If control channel is lost, and local radar coverage isn't in good shape (after missile strikes) it isn't easy to detect such thing, and I guess no one cared much.

Bernd 03/29/2022 (Tue) 17:01:44 [Preview] No.47094 del
>paramilitaries and militia including groups like Azov Battalion

Azov isn't paramilitary, it is regiment of National Guard now. It was paramilitary volunteer force only in first years after Crimea. Now they even have tanks.


Social media warriors, mostly. As always.
One LDNR officer said this openly, and they forced him to apologize as always: https://www.stav.kp.ru/daily/27369/4561532/
Chechen-Russian relations never change even on frontline.

>In worst case scenario they could even grow sugar beet on the long term.

It isn't that good. In 2019 only 0.6% of sugar beet seeds were Russian-made. Now import is very restricted, and there will be problems, although it doesn't mean that there will be no sugar beet of course, but maybe less in current year.

Actually problems are everywhere. As example - modern bearings were made only at few factories, and all of them used western tools extensively (and were partially owned): https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5252504

Russian economy is very dependent of foreign tools and materials, and situation with restricted import is much serious that all this monetary thing that happens at bank level. China can't replace everything, and Chinese companies sometimes also follow sanctions when they have large western market. There is shortage even in office paper now because components for paper whitening weren't made locally too.

Bernd 03/29/2022 (Tue) 19:41:48 [Preview] No.47095 del
>One LDNR officer said this openly, and they forced him to apologize as always
Well, with those beards, success is inevitable. He should have known.
That article links another one, where that officer criticized the Chechens:
It's about the siege of Mariupol. I recommend to read it, especially for Australianbernd, it gives some insight about what's going on.

>It isn't that good.
Yes it is subpar compared to cane sugar.
>Actually problems are everywhere
>China can't replace everything
The situation will only normalize on the long term. Both Russian and Chinese companies stepping in to produce what's necessary. Maybe other countries too. Ofc probably never be the same level of supply. As for quality, that might suffer (now shouldn't mistake durability/longevity with quality, while those can be part of it).

Bernd 03/29/2022 (Tue) 23:47:56 [Preview] No.47096 del
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Continuing from >>47082 and referring to the comments about the real extent of russian demands and what would constitute "victory": >>47055 >>47085 >>47086 >>47062
Regardless of official positions, and unofficial bravado, one should attempt a cost/benefit analysis. The Ru MOD has acknowledged >1300 KIA. That's no small amount. In absolute terms it's similar to the losses per day suffered by Armenia+NK in the defeat vs. Azerbaijan, quite high. After adjusting for population size (or for army size) it is much lower, but still high when compared with the recent, lower-energy, middle-eastern conflicts. Furthermore, that number probably doesn't include the losses of the Donbas militias. Equipment-wise, although rus probably doesn't have scarcity of armour, it would seem that they suffered more losses than expected, at least in logistics vehicles. To that we could add the damages caused by the economic, diplomatic, and mediatic sides of the war (waged by "the west" rather than Ukraine). So, I do think they have "crossed the Rubicon", partly by being pushed across, and already "paid the price" (or "a price"), and it would make sense, then, for them to try to get get something equivalent in return. However, I'm increasingly doubting Rus' ability to achieve such a "total victory" (beyond the official demands) under the present conditions. To wit:
- No full mobilization, no war economy, but the limited scope of a "special military operation"
- For whatever reason (maybe concern for collateral damage, maybe fear of nato AA launchers) rus has not been using its air force to its full potential, relying instead on high-precision but much more costly missiles, rather than aerial bombardment
- Although it is conceivable that ukr suffered more losses than rus, the former doesn't lack manpower, while the latter entered the conflict with only ~190k troops (a fraction of its standing army)
- Ukr basically has unending supply of nato weaponry, and ~4 weeks into the conflict rus still hasn't strangled that supply
- Rus doesn't want to unduly spite the civilian population so it's not putting pressure on cities to surrender. E.g. electricity and communications have mostly been left alone, water/food have not been touched, gas continues to flow (and transit fees continue to be paid)
- Ukr has no compunction in using schools, hospitals, shopping malls, residential buildings, civilian cars, etc., to shelter themselves and their military equipment (a Geneva convention violation) and then cry "war crime" and beg for nato to enter the war when they are targeted
- Rus is not targeting the Ukr govt
- Rus advances have been slow for the past 2 weeks, very slow or nil during the past few days, and there may have been a retreat in the area around Nikolaev (and perhaps elsewhere too, though claims are contradictory)

Bernd 03/30/2022 (Wed) 00:02:07 [Preview] No.47097 del
In these circumstances, the only way I see for such a "total victory" is mass support among civs and mass surrender among troops. But this scenario (which has already failed to materialize once, during the first few days of the conflict), is unlikely because after ~8 years (since the maidan coup, or ~18 years since the "orange revolution") of systematic sidelining of pro-rus people, not many of them are now in position of sufficient power to act as collaborators and lead people to defect. This doesn't mean there aren't many pro-rus people, there surely are (at least in ex-novorossia) as evidenced by various cases of them leaking the location of ukr military. But they are mostly powerless and likely to face repercussions if they rise up.
Barring that, a "total victory" (i.e. ukrainian capitulation or, say, >70% territory captured) might yet be achievable but I think rus would have to go into full war footing for that, and stop trying to be "gentle". If that doesn't happen, I think rus may still achieve a victory, on paper and on territory, but when weighed against the costs some will argue it was a defeat (like some have done with the winter war).
In any case, one mustn't forget that "sunk costs" arguments can lead to spiraling losses. A careful weighing of costs, benefits, and risks must be done. But it is almost impossible for us to know what those are while facts are still behind this thick mediatico-politico-diplomatico-propagandistic fog of war.

Other stuff:
- As I mentioned, couple of weeks ago, the Poland-based Protasevych-founded "Nexta" channel was posting fakes made from video game footage. A few days ago, Ukraine's official ministry of defence account on twatter posted footage game Arma3 claiming that it shows russian helicopters shot down over Kherson: http://archive.fo/sgdzX
Media all over the natosphere mindlessly reproduced it.
This may have been the original source: https://invidious.fdn.fr/watch?v=Y6oLOdrQNRc
- Barbarism: There's another video of what looks like a ukr soldier killing a man by stabbing him in face, eyes, and throat. ISIS-tier butchery

>It has square around red star that is identified as remains of new UA logo painted over old one using not so good paint.
Interesting. I found this pic. In the middle photo one can see 2 corners of what might be a star below their logo, and the other two photos have that square-ish area with a curved bottom. So, IIUC, that theory says that the logo, painted over the star, was lost in the flight or in the crash (due to any combination of pressure, temperature, fire). So, if Ukr launched it, it gives them a way out of the false-flag accusation.

Dutch bernd Bernd 03/30/2022 (Wed) 01:39:48 [Preview] No.47100 del
But still, what exactly is the point of this war though? A lot of Ukraine is bombed now and most people will never like Russia after this? Entire thing seems kinda pointless tbh

Dutch bernd Bernd 03/30/2022 (Wed) 01:46:10 [Preview] No.47101 del
Oh fug :DDD

>That is very useful.

He moved to Georgia now. Seems like Russians migrating will be a common occurrence soon.

>That one sounds like a joke. Just can't take that exaggerated fake accent srsly.
It's a fake accent? really? I thought that it was genuine.

>There has been some degree of barbarism spreading over ukrainian cities/towns. There are dozens of videos showing civilians being publicly punished and humiliated by an assortment of soldiers, police, para-militaries, civilian mobs, and whatnot.

Well it's a war and invasion happening right where they live. Ofc most people aren't going to be level headed. It can happen anywhere

Dutch bernd Bernd 03/30/2022 (Wed) 01:49:54 [Preview] No.47102 del
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>I had relative on Ukraine, we lost contact with her and genuinely though she was killed. She lived in a literal warzone. Thankfully managed to escape to Poland and sent us a message she's allright.

Glad someone else is feeling what I feel. What's worse is not knowing when you'll hear back from them. Raly stressful

Updates on my post. Some of the people I know in Ukraine that I managed to talk to are ok. But they're scared over how crazy things are over there atm

Bernd 03/30/2022 (Wed) 01:55:53 [Preview] No.47105 del
Or that too. But maybe they just put Livemaps up so that she looked like she was doing something military like but did not show what they actually use. One would hope that was the case...

True, technically they are but they still fin into that grey area.

In another video I saw of Chechens, the taller grey beard one that you see next to Kadyrov in some of the images(he must be some kind of important person) was firing an Ak loaded with tracer fully automatically, yeah, that looks like it was for social media.

I read it, it was interesting.

All true, and while yes the forces Russia is bringing to bear are minimal compared to what it could, we don't know the reasons for that nor what the real situation on the ground is or what the real plan of the Russian army is nor what operational timetable that would be based on is. It could be that they think they have this in control, that they are just going to pound Ukrainian infrastructure and logistics, slowly take ground and sure up their own logistics and then maybe when it looks like Ukraine has been softened enough, then they will speed things up. Or maybe they do intend to bring more forces in at some point but later on, I don't know.

Tasmania is part of Ukraine.

Dutch bernd Bernd 03/30/2022 (Wed) 01:58:22 [Preview] No.47106 del
Some more videos about Ukraine

Pretty saddenings stuff

Bernd 03/30/2022 (Wed) 20:38:05 [Preview] No.47118 del
>probably doesn't include the losses of the Donbas militias.
That is my suspicion too.
>Rus advances have been slow for the past 2 weeks, very slow or nil during the past few days
The article here: >>47095 describes how they approach the siege of Mariupol. The recon, the attacks, how they gain ground by the house. And how the Chechens rode into the town and died.
>Ukr basically has unending supply of nato weaponry
That's a bit exaggerated.
>Rus is not targeting the Ukr govt
They made big fuss about it how Chechen hit squad targeting Zelensky was neutralized. Probably wasn't even true that he was targeted, but every failure would just give munition to propaganda. I'm sure they are kept safe. Some might not be in Ukraine at all. And not just govt matters there, but the oligarch who are sure already fled the country (might be they weren't there when the war started to begin with). Also they're saying Zelensky is there, but is he really? I seem to recall a video featuring him where they used green screen for the production. I bet they set up some nice studio for his new career, an actor playing politician playing an actor playing a politician (so many layers).

>It's a fake accent? really? I thought that it was genuine.
Are you kiddings with me?

Maybe Zelensky is in Tasmania now.

Well she can show support, nothing wrong with that.

Bernd 03/31/2022 (Thu) 00:15:30 [Preview] No.47119 del
>but when weighed against the costs some will argue it was a defeat (like some have done with the winter war).
The Winter War was a psychological defeat with long-lasting impacts on Finnish opinion about Russian control and self-confidence in dealing with Russia as well as on international Finnish reputation. Also a full defeat for the puppet Finnish communist government.
Depending on how this war goes, Ukrainians might feel more and more they are a cohesive nation-state capable of organizing and sustaining a war effort. So far there has been no meltdown of morale and organization. To make matters worse, pro-Russian opinion may lose even more ground, and the most pro-Russian parts of the country will be the most damaged by combat. Russia will have more gains as the war gets long and bitter, but their quality will be lower.

Bernd 03/31/2022 (Thu) 07:24:22 [Preview] No.47120 del
Another cease-fire in Mariupol to allow civilians to leave.
This is at least the second. These also hampers Russian offensive, and allows Ukrainian forces to recover, reorganize.
Might be important that even liveuamap paints the whole region around Mariupol red, there is no way for supply arriving to those who still resist, and breaking out isn't a possibility either.
Also have to note that large areas in the east is painted as in Russian control, tho previously they only painted the roads red. I think this is a definite change.
More also check the new on the right:
>This year Ukraine's GDP will contract 20% while Russian economy will shrink 10%: EBRD
The source is the twitter of AFP news Agency. Isn't a bit early to make such predictions? Both can go very well lower.
How much economic activity is going on in Ukraine? Most of the country is untouched, although the large settlements of the east plus Kiev are the stages of fighting.

Bernd 03/31/2022 (Thu) 07:27:44 [Preview] No.47121 del
Truly The Lord of The Rings.

Bernd 03/31/2022 (Thu) 13:46:01 [Preview] No.47124 del
The Russians have said that phase 1 is over and now they are going to begin a new phase that will mean taking Donbass. The Ukrainians are pushing back in local counter attacks but it's unclear how hard the Russians are actually trying to hold those areas, it seems they are repositioning and preparing for a new offensive.

I still expect them to try to take Dnipro and to cut the forces in the Donbass off that way, or to at least try to, once they take the rest of Izium they will be able to move south and west with much more ease. The Ukrainians might push the Russians back even further east of Kiev but I doubt they will dislodge the positions north of Kiev. The Russian lines east of Kiev are not really all that tenable as they are vulnerable to attack from many angles, it really deepens on how badly the Russians want to hold it though.

Bernd 03/31/2022 (Thu) 18:32:04 [Preview] No.47125 del
I assume phase 1 would be crushing Ukrainian military if we go by Colonel General Sergei Rudskoy's speech? By that they want to liberate the (people's) republics, without the interference of the Ukrainian military. For this they have to neutralize it, because otherwise those could endlessly butt into the matter. So they opted with all out war on the whole Ukraine, and not on a limited operational area.
Now - if it is true what's in that speech - they crippled the Ukrainian army, and they are busy with holding Kiev, Chernigov, Sumi, Kharkov, Mikolaev and Krivoy Rog. In the South East corner god knows what the situation is.
Or maybe phase 1 is connecting Crimea with the republics? Because that crushing doesn't sound complete in reality.

Bernd 04/01/2022 (Fri) 01:23:31 [Preview] No.47128 del
>but I doubt they will dislodge the positions north of Kiev.

Because the Russians are already leaving them on their own... I was not wholly wrong I guess. I thought they would try to stay there to keep pressure on the capital but then having them there is costly as it is right near the capital of Ukrainian, it's not strictly necessary for taking Donbas either.

Bernd 04/01/2022 (Fri) 01:27:09 [Preview] No.47129 del
Maybe, it could also be surrounding certain cities, taking Mariupol(or near enough of it), connecting Crimea to the Donbass, taking Kherson and so establishing a foothold on the west side of the Dniper etc. Hitting Ukrainian supply depots and such would probably be a part as well.

Bernd 04/01/2022 (Fri) 11:14:25 [Preview] No.47130 del
(7.43 MB 720x1280 belgorod1.mp4)
(1.22 MB 480x378 belgorod2.mp4)
Ukrainian (allegedly) helicopter attack on Belgorod fuel depot in Russia.