Meanwhile...
Putin gave another history lecture through phone to Trump, proving he is not a paper tiger. It was Big and Glorious but it took centuries.
They're gonna meet at Budapest, this idea is floating like a turd in the public pool since Trump got inaugurated. Finally the time came. First their various diplomats will meet to court each other.
However Trump receives Zelensky in the White House tomorrow. Will be another round of humiliation? Surely finally we'll learn from Trump if it is his war or Biden's, if it had happened if he had been the President in 2022 or not, and maybe he will disclose the origin of the Javelins Ukraine had at the beginning of the war. I'm sure it will worth the waiting.

Found this "research platform":
https://oxuswatch.com/
https://xcancel.com/theoxuswatch
They are doing research and write publications on South and Central Asia (protip: Oxus is a big river in Central Asia).
Not sure where to follow events related to Afghanistan but this is one source at least.

This article (a bit stale from June) says the Taliban banned foreign jihad:
https://oxuswatch.com/content/dynamics-behind-taliban-ban-afghans-fighting-pakistan

Orbán was on the radio, as he does on every Friday. He was talking a lot about the "peace summit" however he said nothing much in particular.
He said he spoke with Trump yesterday and with Russian diplomats and he'll call Putin today. They formed a "task group" to organize the event, which could happen as soon as in two weeks. Rubio and Lavrov with their staff will agree on stuff and hammer out details and a week after that they are finished. He said a meeting can be organized at many places around the world, but if we just focus on Europe and why we should not since the war is in Europe, then the first place is Budapest. Hungary represents peace since the outbreak of the conflict, both in voice and in acts, only the Vatican can say the same thing about itself. Uh, that's about it.

I still don't know how will they smuggle Putin in. Perhaps they'll pack him into a capsule and pump him in via the Turk Stream pipeline.
Or at least via Türkiye and from there I guess via the Balkans. Bulgaria, Serbia, perhaps from the Adria.
Or could just fly over Ukraine - if he trusts the US switching off Ukraine's air defence - easy peasy. But at least they can make Poland stand by and allow Putin a flyover.
Anyway he'll be the second war criminal we won't arrest. Apparently it's okay these days.

Here's an artikel about the same thing:
https://apnews.com/article/hungary-orban-trump-putin-meeting-budapest-a28ff73252889bcd1c73f70b1338a0d3

>>54753
Neo-cons are very lucky Donald Trump has the patience for all this bullshit. If I were sitting president I would have told Europe and Ukraine to make peace with Russia, abide by the Istanbul+ agreement of 2022 (which Ukraine was going to do but was coaxed out of it thanks to Bojo the clown and bumbling Biden) and walked away from this war completely. Not our war, not our problem.

You won't ever find me in pic related.

>>54754
USian Presidents aren't their own man to be honest. They have to do what various economical power groups and lobbyists want. They are tied up by debt and banking too.
But here's a different explanation for the deadlock of the peace plans:
https://inv.nadeko.net/watch?v=gP320ajCr-k
https://youtube.com/watch?v=gP320ajCr-k [Embed]
It's an hour video, but he describes the thoroughly, describes various ideas why things don't work out. He notes that Russia is winning, but it seems they only have plans how to fight on, but not how to make this peace. The core of the problem is that this is a five state deadlock (US, UK, Europe, Ukraine, Russia), war aims are different even on the "allied" side, and noone knows how to end the war.

I agree, from where we stand now the Istanbul agreement would have been the best solution. Or if they adhered to the Minsk agreements. Both ship sailed.

>pic related.
It's a webm, Bernd.

Others asking questions too.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/10/17/how-will-putin-travel-to-budapest-to-meet-trump

Trump didn't give the *hawks to Zelensky yesterday. No surprise. He'll deliver when he pretends to get angry at Putin some weeks after they met.
Still have to check in detail how was the meeting.

>>54758
In fact I saw at least one artikel on Hungarian news site about the same topic.

Thinking about the reasons why Hungary was picked. From security viewpoint getting the presidents of Russia and US into the same place is huge responsibility.
So one of the reasons we can sum up as: our govt kept a civil tone towards Russia, not working overtime on chopping all the ropes like a madman. This is described by Our Party and Government as "being in the peacecamp", and by Western leftlib media and politicians as "Putin's best friend in the EU", or even Russian Trojan horse.
But, they surely looked for a country that can be trusted. And there is no such thing as "trust" in Realpolitik. Or any kind of foreign politics really, even the most gullible of liberals would not believe in that.
Right now Hungary is run by one of the most loyal client regime of the Trump administration.
But this is only one thing. Russia also needs a reason to consider our country "trustable". And yes, Hungary probably was a reliable trade partner, the type of loyalty and ties the Western media tries to project are nonexistent. What I think has a role in this is Israel.
Not just the Orbán government, but all the politicians minus Mi Hazánk perhaps, and prior Jobbik, and prior MIÉP are pro-Zionist to the max, and unknown number but a sure number of Israeli-Hungarian double citizens sit in the legislation and in the governmental bureaucracy, no doubt in various security services and law enforcement too. Israel has a great pull on Hungary and she influences our foreign relations. There are other details such as Israelite religious groups visiting Hungary, or that various Israeli sport teams (eg. football clubs) play their various matches at us. Both example needs some level of Israeli security involvement, they have a way in. So I think Israel has a reason to believe Hungary as a trustable and secure place.
Relations between Russia and Israel are rarely discussed and hard to measure the real depth, but for this post I think we can say they are quite pragmatic. The issues they have all largely has to do with great power politics in the Middle East, the clash of interests between US and SU - later Russia. Even that Iran thing is the result of this. Should not forget Israel is a US client. Some say Israel is 51st state of the US, now that couple millions of Jews emigrated from Russia, we could consider it a Russian oblast too.
Israel maintained relations with Russia, they did not join in any sanctions either. Compared to this Hungary is a real enemy of Russia we are rolling with all the EU sanctions. And recently Netanyahu seems to mediate between Trump and Putin. They had casual chats this year.

They should really stop the war until Matt recovers.

Wyatt of DPA in fresh frontline changes report noted Russian claims that their foot is entered Mala Tokmachka at Orikhiv (Robotine). Geolocated video footage exists to back the claim.
If they could push between Orikhiv and Huliaipole they could create two more pockets and killboxes, which would be also new to the Zaporozhia front. Similar to these >>54659

He also reports as "Breaking News" that the Budapest meeting is cancelled. Need to wait a bit to consider it confirmed.


>>54761
He did published a new video yesterday. He needs some more time to properly recover. Wishing the best.

What the fuck is a dronewall?
Not sure how they called it in English, but something the EU wants to build. At least from Norway to Poland. Because they can't shoot at cheap Russian drones with expensive rockets.
So what would they shoot with?

Meanwhile 19th sanction package of the EU is rolling out. Hitting hard. Ourselves.

So with the sanctions Trump want to reduce oil Russian sales, but it drives price up so the Russians can sell their oil for higher price?
Real genious plan.
Tho China has to buy it for more, which hits China.
But for now it's 5% price hike. That's not much.

Pokrovsk is getting chewed up. DeepState map delays a bit, but we are arriving to the Avdiivka moment soon, and they won't be able to hold back anymore and shit will hit the pants.
Russian envoy will travel to Florida to meet Witkoff.

I have another idea why Trump "cancelled" the meeting. For security reasons. Expanding on this: >>54760
If they announce they are gonna have a meeting in two weeks, that means two weeks preparation time for an assassination.
Now I'm pretty sure if anyone tried that, those people and their families and their cats even would get in real trouble. Nevertheless I can list two countries from the top of my head with at least a few people sour and angry enough not to care or have nothing to lose: Ukraine and Iran.
Still Hungary seems to be the place to hold such summit. It can be surveiled quite well, small country, everyone hooked on the Google/Apple/Facebook spy network. Foreigners can't learn the language and Hungarians don't speak foreign languages, it's easy to filter out the chatter that doesn't belong. There are no local groups, organizations who'd have such beef with Trump or Putin they'd attempt anything. And they are all infiltrated anyway.
So slimming down the timeframe for the preparations of an attack could be another step to make it impossible to put it in action.
What I think they'll announce the event suddenly, we're gonna read some headlines at one point that says:
>Tomorrow President Trump and President Putin will meet on Yournut
Or
>Yesterday PT and PP had a meeting in Panties

Meanwhile our Fidesz/govt. media is full on telling us the meeting will happen.
I'd also expect Tucker Carlson appearing here, he already visited Hungary and made an interview with Putin, he might do another one here.

Michael von der Schulenburg (mainly him) and Jeff Sachs on Neutrality Studies, about how the EU is a paper tiger
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=FSKSUHbDnsU
https://youtube.com/watch?v=FSKSUHbDnsU [Embed]
In support of Ukraine:
>all the things we do are illusionary

Trump just can't leave himself out of creating that sweet sweet security dilemma.

Dude visiting Ukraine. As a tourist. Starting from Hungary.
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=o-TzbYITvXU
https://youtube.com/watch?v=o-TzbYITvXU [Embed]

>>54788
Alex of HistoryLegends made a review on the action. It's on his second channel HistoryLegends Fleshlight Flashlight Flashpoint:
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=Nv4AIkGZxxs
https://youtube.com/watch?v=Nv4AIkGZxxs [Embed]
Good points:
- more than one choppers, therefore more than 11 men, perhaps up to 33 with 3 helicopters
- from the drone footage can't be assessed how many were KIA actually, and indeed in many of these the camera feed goes out too early and too far away from the soldiers
- the goal might had been to capture or clear the intersection

>>54788
GUR ofc, not GRU

>>54788
>>54791
Denys Davydov has a quite all right video of the same action:
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=MCTQUPzaca8
https://youtube.com/watch?v=MCTQUPzaca8 [Embed]
It contains a longer video from some road made by a local, which features 2 Blackhawks, and no third one. The ambushing drone also shows only two. So they could drop up to 22 soldiers.
I think features in the other stuff I posted above that the action itself happened on Oct 29., I forgot to mention. Anyway.
DD says the forces dropped there were taken out several hours later.
His take on the situation in Pokrovsk also surprisingly sober.

I think the operators weren't for recapturing that intersection. They were too few, and with just small arms, the area is large.

>>54796
Maybe should be called Velyka Novosilka - Pokrovske axis, since the general direction is that settlement.

Venezuela. Just a couple of thoughts.
So the US considers a number of states as "enemy". As we defined here: >>54313 an enemy is a non-client regime that deliberately chooses to oppose the US in key issues, in their foreign and domestic policies both.
Not sure about the current list of enemies. Iran, North Korea, and Venezuela is there. Perhaps couple of African countries? Not sure. Russia and China are rivals to the US, I think the US has some level Containment policy in effect against both, but they also do deals with them. The US with the Containment policy prefers to shut everything.
What I think is Trump going through the list, and tries to decide what policy options to pick against each. For now he prefers more active stance than just Contain, Persuasion or Engagement (some of the policies here >>54523 are universally true, they differ in detail from enemy to enemy). In Iran's case they decided to combine the Israel option with their own bombing campaign. And now in Venezuela the again doing air raids, for now against boats and narcos and whatever.
I dunno what's the most current is, I think a number of warships and a small invasion force is grouped there. We'll see.
What I think that when the issue with Maduro gets stale (or solved, or the situation changes in a way that it can be presented by US propaganda as a WIN) then we're gonna start hearing about some other enemy, I assume North Korea. Perhaps Trump will visit again, he will say he knows the Little Rocketman well and they are great friends and they have great understanding and Ukraine is not his but Biden's war. There will be some saber rattling no doubt.
And then we'll move to the next one.

JFC Trump is not in office even a year, he was so fucking much. God! Less America!

Millenium 7 * HistoryTech explains hypersonic missiles.
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=BJvm63B2E0A
https://youtube.com/watch?v=BJvm63B2E0A [Embed]

Al-Sharaa >>54750 went to Washington. Have to get the assignments, just like Orbán did.

Back to the Venezuela topic: >>54827
Videos by James Ker-Lindsay:
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=UohYvDKVihw
https://youtube.com/watch?v=UohYvDKVihw [Embed]
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=uu24d08XuB8
https://youtube.com/watch?v=uu24d08XuB8 [Embed]
He mentions regime change as a goal of the Trump administration at the end of the first one, and expands on that in the second.
But it's worth a second to watch the first one as he shows how the "drug problem" got militarized/"securitized" and elevated from a health issue to a foreign relations and security see Realpolitik issue. In my opinion they did to use it as an excuse to create enemy states from non-clients or renegade clients, to pursue hawkish policies. Citing them as source of the drug problem they try to gain legitimization for military action, and introduce regime change in the country.
And yes, regime change is a goal, but not a policy instrument. Change to a neutral or better yet, client regime - latter is called Switching >>54236. This can happen if the regime is removed and a new is set up, or if the regime changes its mind and stops opposing the US in key issues.

In the second video he goes through various options. This is similar to Which Path to Persia: >>54523
1. Intensify existing pressures, tightening sanctions, introduce sanctions on countries supporting Venezuela, isolating them further. Basically the Containment policy. Problem: they can't do that much further, and could cause such humanitarian problem which can cause rally the flag effect and strengthen Maduro.
2. Increase covert action: clandestine operation, encourage defections, assassination. Unpredictable and can backfire.
3. Military action: targeted strikes, special force raids. Risk of civilian casualties, and low chance to get the desired effect.
4. Invasion and occupation by US forces. High cost and long commitment for rebuilding.

It wasn't the goal of his video to present all the options, but I have to add the US could try Persuasion and Engagement policies. With the caveat that Persuasion is a combination of Containment and Engagement, threatening with the stick while dangling half the carrot, and as previously mentioned they can't really introduce bigger stick... Ergo it's a useless dance.
Again the only solution is Engagement: lifting everything and re-integrating Venezuela into the world. But this they won't do.

As for the military options, which are the 2 to 4 options in his list, there are other options in there, we have to check. We called it hostile interventions, and as he did we can differentiate between covert and overt ones.
Covert: >>54316
1. Coups d'état;
2. Punctuated military ops;
3. Aid to internal armed opposition forces.
Overt: >>54317
1. Large-scale combat - doesn't apply in this case;
2. Sustained and asymmetrical attacks (airstrikes, strategic bombing);
3. Combat ops alongside local insurgent forces;
4. Invasion.
So all these can be used to move forward the desired regime change. Except for the US to act openly, she needs a legitimate reason to do so.

>>54840
Yeah, they moved the Carrier Strike Group 12 with USS Gerald R. Ford to the Caribbean.
https://www.navy.mil/Press-Office/News-Stories/display-news/Article/4329588/gerald-r-ford-carrier-strike-group-enters-us-fourth-fleet/
>The carrier strike group will augment joint forces already in the area of responsibility, including the Iwo Jima Amphibious Ready Group and embarked marine expeditionary unit, under a Joint Task Force, created to defeat and dismantle criminal networks that exploit our shared borders and maritime domains.

About the Gaza peace deal and the proposed UN resolution - how it is used to sideline Palestine, cut off Gaza and serve Israeli interests, all done by the Washington.
By Jeffrey D. Sachs.
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=hH-aPa1U0Bs
https://youtube.com/watch?v=hH-aPa1U0Bs [Embed]

Basically they are doing what I hoped they won't but I knew they will.

Colonel Reisner again, from three weeks ago.
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=nCu1Jb796Ow
https://youtube.com/watch?v=nCu1Jb796Ow [Embed]
>Russian summer offensive failed
What did he mean by this?

>>54845
Watched. Better than expected.
He meant that the Russians failed to break through between Pokrovsk and Konstiantynivka at Zolotyi Kolodiaz. So he spins it that it was a main objective and major effort, instead of a lucky result of attrition. He either doesn't get it, or he tries to give something to be optimistic about.
Beside this, it's a good summary of the situation.
It is lopsided at the "hybrid war" as if Russia was the only one who engages in this. The fun part is that the West wages the informational war on its own population! Not many Russian (or Chinese for that matter) follow Western media to get told what's happening. Ofc other elements of the hybrid war - eg. heckin hackerinos - are directed against Russia.
Fun that he is using our boy Clement's bomb map. Kudos.
Too bad this wasn't translated.

Kek, now Zelensky buys French Rafale's too. A hundred of 'em no less.
Is this cancels the Swedish deal >>54768 ? Remember that was in intent too.
Sounds like they want to gain promises for the future to secure military industry funding.
https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20251117-zelensky-french-arms-ukraine-defense

>miranoharadu
Made me raff very very big.
Delivering emotional daaaaaaaaaaamage to some for sure.

Oh yeah, another pace plan time. The nth.
Le Monde says it was released by Financial Times and Axios:
https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2025/11/21/war-in-ukraine-what-we-know-about-donald-trump-s-28-point-peace-plan_6747683_4.html
FT is paywalled but Axios is not:
https://www.axios.com/2025/11/20/trump-ukraine-peace-plan-28-points-russia
There is a thread about it here: >>>/news/28800 not sure if the same text I haven't read, I assume it is.

As for the size limitation of Ukraine's army, they say it's 600K max. Axios says right now it's about 800-850K (I've seen similar numbers by other sources some times earlier), and before the war it was 250K. I doubt they could upkeep a 600K standing army. Perhaps with weekend soldiers included.
BUT. It is more important if there are any limitations in weaponry. What they can have or how many.

This one:
9. European fighter jets will be stationed in Poland.
Isn't it a given that European fighter jets can be in Poland? How is this part of anything? Compared to this they cannot be in Romania or the Baltics? This point makes no sense.

This is fun:
13. Russia will be reintegrated into the global economy:
- The lifting of sanctions will be discussed and agreed upon in stages and on a case-by-case basis.
Will European countries be allowed to buy Russian fossils or any other energy sources? Or we still have to move to USian LNG and such???

There are some problems. From the top of my heda:
For starters the most staunch and active supporters of the regimes in Kiev and Moscow both feels the war must go on. Potential political instability ahead.
Is Russia willing to accept the current govt, especially Zelensky as a legitimate party to sign it?
Would EU and UK sabotage the whole thing and push Ukraine for more war? Especially the UK is a notorious warmonger. But maybe Washington could bully everyone to stand down.

Still have to watch couple of videos I'm sure there will be some in the next couple of days. I'm curious what Matt is saying.

>>54852
Thinking about the recognition of "de facto" Russian control. The fuck Russia cares about this. They are happy controlling Crimea away since 2014 and spend 0 time on crying about why the USA doesn't recognize their de facto control. So from the Russian point of view they are given nothing.
And. They don't want to leave some issues unresolved. From Odessa Ukraine can endanger the whole Russian Black Sea shipping. If I was the Kremlin, I would be a huge fugging building. Also would not want Ukraine to control to have that important sea port. Plus land bridge to Transnistria.
And. It is clear already what Western promises and guarantees and agreements and treaties worth. See: Minsk.
So I do agree with such opinions that Russia want to look like the reasonable party so they can blame Zelensky and the West again for the failure of the negotiation, and push more.

Also another party that might not want the war to end: China. It profits from both sides, by selling shit directly, plus gets Russian resources on discount, plus enjoys the US squirming powerlessly like a senile invalid.

Fugg. Watching DPA frontline changes reports. In the past 4 days RuAF captured over 200 sqkms. That's 50/day
Considering Ukraine's monthly loss is something like 400-600 (15-20/day), this is huge amount.
Wyatt speculates this might be the new norm.

Putin about the peace plan, translated by Michael Rossi, on his channel:
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=tkAdhEu2e6M
https://youtube.com/watch?v=tkAdhEu2e6M [Embed]
tl;dr
For Russia supports the peace plan, but fighting on is just the same for the reality of the battlefield reflects that Russia is winning, and both Kiev and Europe either don't get correct information or can't interpret correctly the situation, so they don't want peace. Negotiations started before Alaska and they are going on ever since.
Basically.

>>54863
Trying to listen the brigadier general's speech, but sucks can't find one coherent video in English, so a bit of here and the bit of there. So trying to piece it together.
Restoration of National Security and Order... ofc course they are.
Committed to:
- national security
- civil peace
- defense of territorial integrity
- independence of the country
They reacted against the plot aimed to:
- destabilize the country
- manipulate election
by local actors and foreign nationals.
In the name of preserving constitutional order:
- they decided to depose the President
- close all institutions
- suspend the ongoing elections
- shut down social media
- close land, sea borders, airspace
- exercise state power
They ask for:
- calm collaboration by the population
That's about it.

Shit is hilarious.
OPLAN mon DiEU
https://www.defencetoday.com/resources/operations-plan-germany-oplan-deu/
https://www.thedefensenews.com/news-details/Germany-Drafts-Secret-1200-Page-War-Plan-as-NATO-Prepares-for-Possible-Clash-With-Russia/
https://www.euronews.com/2025/11/28/germany-readies-massive-defence-plan-to-counter-potential-russian-threat
>“whole-of-society” war blueprint.
It's the totaler krieg again.
>envisioned moving around 800,000 soldiers and some 200,000 vehicles from various NATO states through Germany to the front line against Russia.
They can't even fugging move one French brigade through Europe. See:
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=oD6rrN8iFAk
https://youtube.com/watch?v=oD6rrN8iFAk [Embed]
Moving 800K man would be a clusterfuck of ébin proportion.
And they fantasized through 1200 pages. Just about the length of that book where Frodo and co. trudged through Middle Earth into Mordor.

Check out these curves.
And compare to that reduced interception area if the missile doesn't come directly towards the AA battery. >>54831
Hmm.

And now I'm gonna practice my Cyrillic skillz:
OAeca
XepcoH
AHinpo
AoHeubk
yepkacN
KNIB
PiBHe
CyMN

What are the greatest buzzwords of the Russo-Ukrainian War?
- game changer
- red lines
- energy independence (this might be just idiotism, not a buzzword)
Ah, the cogwheels don't turn. Getting late, surely will come up more when fresh.

Jeff Rich of The Burning Archive has a great series about the peace process on the Ukraine. Why is it deadlocked, why they can't make peace.
This Australian (historian and ex-govt official) has a unique way of seeing things, some I disagree with but quite a lot to mull over.
Three main ideas which form a trap they can't get out:
1. Five State War (not 2 but 5 participants)
2. Divided Executives (cliques and individual thoughts within all the participants)
3. War Termination Phase (everyone wants to reach peace on their own terms)

I think it starts with this:
Why the Ukraine Peace Plans are DEADLOCKED
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=gP320ajCr-k
https://youtube.com/watch?v=gP320ajCr-k [Embed]

Why do Ukraine Peace Talks Keep STALLING?
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=jwbfKUe195Q
https://youtube.com/watch?v=jwbfKUe195Q [Embed]

Then he breaks down each participants:
US - Why the USA cannot make peace or win the war in Ukraine
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=lsMtzadJFYs
https://youtube.com/watch?v=lsMtzadJFYs [Embed]

Russia - Why Russia won't win on the battlefield only in Ukraine
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=1WJpqilmYWY
https://youtube.com/watch?v=1WJpqilmYWY [Embed]

UK - Anarchy in the UK. Britain's Ukraine Endgame
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=gbi_be9HOx8
https://youtube.com/watch?v=gbi_be9HOx8 [Embed]

Europe - Stop the BLAME EUROPE Game to Make Peace in Ukraine
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=y_19DElXpF4
https://youtube.com/watch?v=y_19DElXpF4 [Embed]

Ukraine - Ukraine is TRAPPED in the ENDGAME of its Own War
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=lsy3FhsI7PM
https://youtube.com/watch?v=lsy3FhsI7PM [Embed]