Meanwhile...
Putin gave another history lecture through phone to Trump, proving he is not a paper tiger. It was Big and Glorious but it took centuries.
They're gonna meet at Budapest, this idea is floating like a turd in the public pool since Trump got inaugurated. Finally the time came. First their various diplomats will meet to court each other.
However Trump receives Zelensky in the White House tomorrow. Will be another round of humiliation? Surely finally we'll learn from Trump if it is his war or Biden's, if it had happened if he had been the President in 2022 or not, and maybe he will disclose the origin of the Javelins Ukraine had at the beginning of the war. I'm sure it will worth the waiting.

Found this "research platform":
https://oxuswatch.com/
https://xcancel.com/theoxuswatch
They are doing research and write publications on South and Central Asia (protip: Oxus is a big river in Central Asia).
Not sure where to follow events related to Afghanistan but this is one source at least.

This article (a bit stale from June) says the Taliban banned foreign jihad:
https://oxuswatch.com/content/dynamics-behind-taliban-ban-afghans-fighting-pakistan

Orbán was on the radio, as he does on every Friday. He was talking a lot about the "peace summit" however he said nothing much in particular.
He said he spoke with Trump yesterday and with Russian diplomats and he'll call Putin today. They formed a "task group" to organize the event, which could happen as soon as in two weeks. Rubio and Lavrov with their staff will agree on stuff and hammer out details and a week after that they are finished. He said a meeting can be organized at many places around the world, but if we just focus on Europe and why we should not since the war is in Europe, then the first place is Budapest. Hungary represents peace since the outbreak of the conflict, both in voice and in acts, only the Vatican can say the same thing about itself. Uh, that's about it.

I still don't know how will they smuggle Putin in. Perhaps they'll pack him into a capsule and pump him in via the Turk Stream pipeline.
Or at least via Türkiye and from there I guess via the Balkans. Bulgaria, Serbia, perhaps from the Adria.
Or could just fly over Ukraine - if he trusts the US switching off Ukraine's air defence - easy peasy. But at least they can make Poland stand by and allow Putin a flyover.
Anyway he'll be the second war criminal we won't arrest. Apparently it's okay these days.

Here's an artikel about the same thing:
https://apnews.com/article/hungary-orban-trump-putin-meeting-budapest-a28ff73252889bcd1c73f70b1338a0d3

>>54753
Neo-cons are very lucky Donald Trump has the patience for all this bullshit. If I were sitting president I would have told Europe and Ukraine to make peace with Russia, abide by the Istanbul+ agreement of 2022 (which Ukraine was going to do but was coaxed out of it thanks to Bojo the clown and bumbling Biden) and walked away from this war completely. Not our war, not our problem.

You won't ever find me in pic related.

>>54754
USian Presidents aren't their own man to be honest. They have to do what various economical power groups and lobbyists want. They are tied up by debt and banking too.
But here's a different explanation for the deadlock of the peace plans:
https://inv.nadeko.net/watch?v=gP320ajCr-k
https://youtube.com/watch?v=gP320ajCr-k [Embed]
It's an hour video, but he describes the thoroughly, describes various ideas why things don't work out. He notes that Russia is winning, but it seems they only have plans how to fight on, but not how to make this peace. The core of the problem is that this is a five state deadlock (US, UK, Europe, Ukraine, Russia), war aims are different even on the "allied" side, and noone knows how to end the war.

I agree, from where we stand now the Istanbul agreement would have been the best solution. Or if they adhered to the Minsk agreements. Both ship sailed.

>pic related.
It's a webm, Bernd.

Others asking questions too.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/10/17/how-will-putin-travel-to-budapest-to-meet-trump

Trump didn't give the *hawks to Zelensky yesterday. No surprise. He'll deliver when he pretends to get angry at Putin some weeks after they met.
Still have to check in detail how was the meeting.

>>54758
In fact I saw at least one artikel on Hungarian news site about the same topic.

Thinking about the reasons why Hungary was picked. From security viewpoint getting the presidents of Russia and US into the same place is huge responsibility.
So one of the reasons we can sum up as: our govt kept a civil tone towards Russia, not working overtime on chopping all the ropes like a madman. This is described by Our Party and Government as "being in the peacecamp", and by Western leftlib media and politicians as "Putin's best friend in the EU", or even Russian Trojan horse.
But, they surely looked for a country that can be trusted. And there is no such thing as "trust" in Realpolitik. Or any kind of foreign politics really, even the most gullible of liberals would not believe in that.
Right now Hungary is run by one of the most loyal client regime of the Trump administration.
But this is only one thing. Russia also needs a reason to consider our country "trustable". And yes, Hungary probably was a reliable trade partner, the type of loyalty and ties the Western media tries to project are nonexistent. What I think has a role in this is Israel.
Not just the Orbán government, but all the politicians minus Mi Hazánk perhaps, and prior Jobbik, and prior MIÉP are pro-Zionist to the max, and unknown number but a sure number of Israeli-Hungarian double citizens sit in the legislation and in the governmental bureaucracy, no doubt in various security services and law enforcement too. Israel has a great pull on Hungary and she influences our foreign relations. There are other details such as Israelite religious groups visiting Hungary, or that various Israeli sport teams (eg. football clubs) play their various matches at us. Both example needs some level of Israeli security involvement, they have a way in. So I think Israel has a reason to believe Hungary as a trustable and secure place.
Relations between Russia and Israel are rarely discussed and hard to measure the real depth, but for this post I think we can say they are quite pragmatic. The issues they have all largely has to do with great power politics in the Middle East, the clash of interests between US and SU - later Russia. Even that Iran thing is the result of this. Should not forget Israel is a US client. Some say Israel is 51st state of the US, now that couple millions of Jews emigrated from Russia, we could consider it a Russian oblast too.
Israel maintained relations with Russia, they did not join in any sanctions either. Compared to this Hungary is a real enemy of Russia we are rolling with all the EU sanctions. And recently Netanyahu seems to mediate between Trump and Putin. They had casual chats this year.

They should really stop the war until Matt recovers.

Wyatt of DPA in fresh frontline changes report noted Russian claims that their foot is entered Mala Tokmachka at Orikhiv (Robotine). Geolocated video footage exists to back the claim.
If they could push between Orikhiv and Huliaipole they could create two more pockets and killboxes, which would be also new to the Zaporozhia front. Similar to these >>54659

He also reports as "Breaking News" that the Budapest meeting is cancelled. Need to wait a bit to consider it confirmed.


>>54761
He did published a new video yesterday. He needs some more time to properly recover. Wishing the best.

What the fuck is a dronewall?
Not sure how they called it in English, but something the EU wants to build. At least from Norway to Poland. Because they can't shoot at cheap Russian drones with expensive rockets.
So what would they shoot with?

Meanwhile 19th sanction package of the EU is rolling out. Hitting hard. Ourselves.

So with the sanctions Trump want to reduce oil Russian sales, but it drives price up so the Russians can sell their oil for higher price?
Real genious plan.
Tho China has to buy it for more, which hits China.
But for now it's 5% price hike. That's not much.

Pokrovsk is getting chewed up. DeepState map delays a bit, but we are arriving to the Avdiivka moment soon, and they won't be able to hold back anymore and shit will hit the pants.
Russian envoy will travel to Florida to meet Witkoff.

I have another idea why Trump "cancelled" the meeting. For security reasons. Expanding on this: >>54760
If they announce they are gonna have a meeting in two weeks, that means two weeks preparation time for an assassination.
Now I'm pretty sure if anyone tried that, those people and their families and their cats even would get in real trouble. Nevertheless I can list two countries from the top of my head with at least a few people sour and angry enough not to care or have nothing to lose: Ukraine and Iran.
Still Hungary seems to be the place to hold such summit. It can be surveiled quite well, small country, everyone hooked on the Google/Apple/Facebook spy network. Foreigners can't learn the language and Hungarians don't speak foreign languages, it's easy to filter out the chatter that doesn't belong. There are no local groups, organizations who'd have such beef with Trump or Putin they'd attempt anything. And they are all infiltrated anyway.
So slimming down the timeframe for the preparations of an attack could be another step to make it impossible to put it in action.
What I think they'll announce the event suddenly, we're gonna read some headlines at one point that says:
>Tomorrow President Trump and President Putin will meet on Yournut
Or
>Yesterday PT and PP had a meeting in Panties

Meanwhile our Fidesz/govt. media is full on telling us the meeting will happen.
I'd also expect Tucker Carlson appearing here, he already visited Hungary and made an interview with Putin, he might do another one here.

Michael von der Schulenburg (mainly him) and Jeff Sachs on Neutrality Studies, about how the EU is a paper tiger
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=FSKSUHbDnsU
https://youtube.com/watch?v=FSKSUHbDnsU [Embed]
In support of Ukraine:
>all the things we do are illusionary

Trump just can't leave himself out of creating that sweet sweet security dilemma.

Dude visiting Ukraine. As a tourist. Starting from Hungary.
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=o-TzbYITvXU
https://youtube.com/watch?v=o-TzbYITvXU [Embed]

>>54788
Alex of HistoryLegends made a review on the action. It's on his second channel HistoryLegends Fleshlight Flashlight Flashpoint:
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=Nv4AIkGZxxs
https://youtube.com/watch?v=Nv4AIkGZxxs [Embed]
Good points:
- more than one choppers, therefore more than 11 men, perhaps up to 33 with 3 helicopters
- from the drone footage can't be assessed how many were KIA actually, and indeed in many of these the camera feed goes out too early and too far away from the soldiers
- the goal might had been to capture or clear the intersection

>>54788
GUR ofc, not GRU

>>54788
>>54791
Denys Davydov has a quite all right video of the same action:
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=MCTQUPzaca8
https://youtube.com/watch?v=MCTQUPzaca8 [Embed]
It contains a longer video from some road made by a local, which features 2 Blackhawks, and no third one. The ambushing drone also shows only two. So they could drop up to 22 soldiers.
I think features in the other stuff I posted above that the action itself happened on Oct 29., I forgot to mention. Anyway.
DD says the forces dropped there were taken out several hours later.
His take on the situation in Pokrovsk also surprisingly sober.

I think the operators weren't for recapturing that intersection. They were too few, and with just small arms, the area is large.

>>54796
Maybe should be called Velyka Novosilka - Pokrovske axis, since the general direction is that settlement.

Venezuela. Just a couple of thoughts.
So the US considers a number of states as "enemy". As we defined here: >>54313 an enemy is a non-client regime that deliberately chooses to oppose the US in key issues, in their foreign and domestic policies both.
Not sure about the current list of enemies. Iran, North Korea, and Venezuela is there. Perhaps couple of African countries? Not sure. Russia and China are rivals to the US, I think the US has some level Containment policy in effect against both, but they also do deals with them. The US with the Containment policy prefers to shut everything.
What I think is Trump going through the list, and tries to decide what policy options to pick against each. For now he prefers more active stance than just Contain, Persuasion or Engagement (some of the policies here >>54523 are universally true, they differ in detail from enemy to enemy). In Iran's case they decided to combine the Israel option with their own bombing campaign. And now in Venezuela the again doing air raids, for now against boats and narcos and whatever.
I dunno what's the most current is, I think a number of warships and a small invasion force is grouped there. We'll see.
What I think that when the issue with Maduro gets stale (or solved, or the situation changes in a way that it can be presented by US propaganda as a WIN) then we're gonna start hearing about some other enemy, I assume North Korea. Perhaps Trump will visit again, he will say he knows the Little Rocketman well and they are great friends and they have great understanding and Ukraine is not his but Biden's war. There will be some saber rattling no doubt.
And then we'll move to the next one.

JFC Trump is not in office even a year, he was so fucking much. God! Less America!

Millenium 7 * HistoryTech explains hypersonic missiles.
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=BJvm63B2E0A
https://youtube.com/watch?v=BJvm63B2E0A [Embed]

Al-Sharaa >>54750 went to Washington. Have to get the assignments, just like Orbán did.

Back to the Venezuela topic: >>54827
Videos by James Ker-Lindsay:
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=UohYvDKVihw
https://youtube.com/watch?v=UohYvDKVihw [Embed]
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=uu24d08XuB8
https://youtube.com/watch?v=uu24d08XuB8 [Embed]
He mentions regime change as a goal of the Trump administration at the end of the first one, and expands on that in the second.
But it's worth a second to watch the first one as he shows how the "drug problem" got militarized/"securitized" and elevated from a health issue to a foreign relations and security see Realpolitik issue. In my opinion they did to use it as an excuse to create enemy states from non-clients or renegade clients, to pursue hawkish policies. Citing them as source of the drug problem they try to gain legitimization for military action, and introduce regime change in the country.
And yes, regime change is a goal, but not a policy instrument. Change to a neutral or better yet, client regime - latter is called Switching >>54236. This can happen if the regime is removed and a new is set up, or if the regime changes its mind and stops opposing the US in key issues.

In the second video he goes through various options. This is similar to Which Path to Persia: >>54523
1. Intensify existing pressures, tightening sanctions, introduce sanctions on countries supporting Venezuela, isolating them further. Basically the Containment policy. Problem: they can't do that much further, and could cause such humanitarian problem which can cause rally the flag effect and strengthen Maduro.
2. Increase covert action: clandestine operation, encourage defections, assassination. Unpredictable and can backfire.
3. Military action: targeted strikes, special force raids. Risk of civilian casualties, and low chance to get the desired effect.
4. Invasion and occupation by US forces. High cost and long commitment for rebuilding.

It wasn't the goal of his video to present all the options, but I have to add the US could try Persuasion and Engagement policies. With the caveat that Persuasion is a combination of Containment and Engagement, threatening with the stick while dangling half the carrot, and as previously mentioned they can't really introduce bigger stick... Ergo it's a useless dance.
Again the only solution is Engagement: lifting everything and re-integrating Venezuela into the world. But this they won't do.

As for the military options, which are the 2 to 4 options in his list, there are other options in there, we have to check. We called it hostile interventions, and as he did we can differentiate between covert and overt ones.
Covert: >>54316
1. Coups d'état;
2. Punctuated military ops;
3. Aid to internal armed opposition forces.
Overt: >>54317
1. Large-scale combat - doesn't apply in this case;
2. Sustained and asymmetrical attacks (airstrikes, strategic bombing);
3. Combat ops alongside local insurgent forces;
4. Invasion.
So all these can be used to move forward the desired regime change. Except for the US to act openly, she needs a legitimate reason to do so.

>>54840
Yeah, they moved the Carrier Strike Group 12 with USS Gerald R. Ford to the Caribbean.
https://www.navy.mil/Press-Office/News-Stories/display-news/Article/4329588/gerald-r-ford-carrier-strike-group-enters-us-fourth-fleet/
>The carrier strike group will augment joint forces already in the area of responsibility, including the Iwo Jima Amphibious Ready Group and embarked marine expeditionary unit, under a Joint Task Force, created to defeat and dismantle criminal networks that exploit our shared borders and maritime domains.

About the Gaza peace deal and the proposed UN resolution - how it is used to sideline Palestine, cut off Gaza and serve Israeli interests, all done by the Washington.
By Jeffrey D. Sachs.
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=hH-aPa1U0Bs
https://youtube.com/watch?v=hH-aPa1U0Bs [Embed]

Basically they are doing what I hoped they won't but I knew they will.

Colonel Reisner again, from three weeks ago.
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=nCu1Jb796Ow
https://youtube.com/watch?v=nCu1Jb796Ow [Embed]
>Russian summer offensive failed
What did he mean by this?

>>54845
Watched. Better than expected.
He meant that the Russians failed to break through between Pokrovsk and Konstiantynivka at Zolotyi Kolodiaz. So he spins it that it was a main objective and major effort, instead of a lucky result of attrition. He either doesn't get it, or he tries to give something to be optimistic about.
Beside this, it's a good summary of the situation.
It is lopsided at the "hybrid war" as if Russia was the only one who engages in this. The fun part is that the West wages the informational war on its own population! Not many Russian (or Chinese for that matter) follow Western media to get told what's happening. Ofc other elements of the hybrid war - eg. heckin hackerinos - are directed against Russia.
Fun that he is using our boy Clement's bomb map. Kudos.
Too bad this wasn't translated.

Kek, now Zelensky buys French Rafale's too. A hundred of 'em no less.
Is this cancels the Swedish deal >>54768 ? Remember that was in intent too.
Sounds like they want to gain promises for the future to secure military industry funding.
https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20251117-zelensky-french-arms-ukraine-defense

>miranoharadu
Made me raff very very big.
Delivering emotional daaaaaaaaaaamage to some for sure.

Oh yeah, another pace plan time. The nth.
Le Monde says it was released by Financial Times and Axios:
https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2025/11/21/war-in-ukraine-what-we-know-about-donald-trump-s-28-point-peace-plan_6747683_4.html
FT is paywalled but Axios is not:
https://www.axios.com/2025/11/20/trump-ukraine-peace-plan-28-points-russia
There is a thread about it here: >>>/news/28800 not sure if the same text I haven't read, I assume it is.

As for the size limitation of Ukraine's army, they say it's 600K max. Axios says right now it's about 800-850K (I've seen similar numbers by other sources some times earlier), and before the war it was 250K. I doubt they could upkeep a 600K standing army. Perhaps with weekend soldiers included.
BUT. It is more important if there are any limitations in weaponry. What they can have or how many.

This one:
9. European fighter jets will be stationed in Poland.
Isn't it a given that European fighter jets can be in Poland? How is this part of anything? Compared to this they cannot be in Romania or the Baltics? This point makes no sense.

This is fun:
13. Russia will be reintegrated into the global economy:
- The lifting of sanctions will be discussed and agreed upon in stages and on a case-by-case basis.
Will European countries be allowed to buy Russian fossils or any other energy sources? Or we still have to move to USian LNG and such???

There are some problems. From the top of my heda:
For starters the most staunch and active supporters of the regimes in Kiev and Moscow both feels the war must go on. Potential political instability ahead.
Is Russia willing to accept the current govt, especially Zelensky as a legitimate party to sign it?
Would EU and UK sabotage the whole thing and push Ukraine for more war? Especially the UK is a notorious warmonger. But maybe Washington could bully everyone to stand down.

Still have to watch couple of videos I'm sure there will be some in the next couple of days. I'm curious what Matt is saying.

>>54852
Thinking about the recognition of "de facto" Russian control. The fuck Russia cares about this. They are happy controlling Crimea away since 2014 and spend 0 time on crying about why the USA doesn't recognize their de facto control. So from the Russian point of view they are given nothing.
And. They don't want to leave some issues unresolved. From Odessa Ukraine can endanger the whole Russian Black Sea shipping. If I was the Kremlin, I would be a huge fugging building. Also would not want Ukraine to control to have that important sea port. Plus land bridge to Transnistria.
And. It is clear already what Western promises and guarantees and agreements and treaties worth. See: Minsk.
So I do agree with such opinions that Russia want to look like the reasonable party so they can blame Zelensky and the West again for the failure of the negotiation, and push more.

Also another party that might not want the war to end: China. It profits from both sides, by selling shit directly, plus gets Russian resources on discount, plus enjoys the US squirming powerlessly like a senile invalid.

Fugg. Watching DPA frontline changes reports. In the past 4 days RuAF captured over 200 sqkms. That's 50/day
Considering Ukraine's monthly loss is something like 400-600 (15-20/day), this is huge amount.
Wyatt speculates this might be the new norm.

Putin about the peace plan, translated by Michael Rossi, on his channel:
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=tkAdhEu2e6M
https://youtube.com/watch?v=tkAdhEu2e6M [Embed]
tl;dr
For Russia supports the peace plan, but fighting on is just the same for the reality of the battlefield reflects that Russia is winning, and both Kiev and Europe either don't get correct information or can't interpret correctly the situation, so they don't want peace. Negotiations started before Alaska and they are going on ever since.
Basically.

>>54863
Trying to listen the brigadier general's speech, but sucks can't find one coherent video in English, so a bit of here and the bit of there. So trying to piece it together.
Restoration of National Security and Order... ofc course they are.
Committed to:
- national security
- civil peace
- defense of territorial integrity
- independence of the country
They reacted against the plot aimed to:
- destabilize the country
- manipulate election
by local actors and foreign nationals.
In the name of preserving constitutional order:
- they decided to depose the President
- close all institutions
- suspend the ongoing elections
- shut down social media
- close land, sea borders, airspace
- exercise state power
They ask for:
- calm collaboration by the population
That's about it.

Shit is hilarious.
OPLAN mon DiEU
https://www.defencetoday.com/resources/operations-plan-germany-oplan-deu/
https://www.thedefensenews.com/news-details/Germany-Drafts-Secret-1200-Page-War-Plan-as-NATO-Prepares-for-Possible-Clash-With-Russia/
https://www.euronews.com/2025/11/28/germany-readies-massive-defence-plan-to-counter-potential-russian-threat
>“whole-of-society” war blueprint.
It's the totaler krieg again.
>envisioned moving around 800,000 soldiers and some 200,000 vehicles from various NATO states through Germany to the front line against Russia.
They can't even fugging move one French brigade through Europe. See:
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=oD6rrN8iFAk
https://youtube.com/watch?v=oD6rrN8iFAk [Embed]
Moving 800K man would be a clusterfuck of ébin proportion.
And they fantasized through 1200 pages. Just about the length of that book where Frodo and co. trudged through Middle Earth into Mordor.

Check out these curves.
And compare to that reduced interception area if the missile doesn't come directly towards the AA battery. >>54831
Hmm.

And now I'm gonna practice my Cyrillic skillz:
OAeca
XepcoH
AHinpo
AoHeubk
yepkacN
KNIB
PiBHe
CyMN

What are the greatest buzzwords of the Russo-Ukrainian War?
- game changer
- red lines
- energy independence (this might be just idiotism, not a buzzword)
Ah, the cogwheels don't turn. Getting late, surely will come up more when fresh.

Jeff Rich of The Burning Archive has a great series about the peace process on the Ukraine. Why is it deadlocked, why they can't make peace.
This Australian (historian and ex-govt official) has a unique way of seeing things, some I disagree with but quite a lot to mull over.
Three main ideas which form a trap they can't get out:
1. Five State War (not 2 but 5 participants)
2. Divided Executives (cliques and individual thoughts within all the participants)
3. War Termination Phase (everyone wants to reach peace on their own terms)

I think it starts with this:
Why the Ukraine Peace Plans are DEADLOCKED
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=gP320ajCr-k
https://youtube.com/watch?v=gP320ajCr-k [Embed]

Why do Ukraine Peace Talks Keep STALLING?
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=jwbfKUe195Q
https://youtube.com/watch?v=jwbfKUe195Q [Embed]

Then he breaks down each participants:
US - Why the USA cannot make peace or win the war in Ukraine
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=lsMtzadJFYs
https://youtube.com/watch?v=lsMtzadJFYs [Embed]

Russia - Why Russia won't win on the battlefield only in Ukraine
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=1WJpqilmYWY
https://youtube.com/watch?v=1WJpqilmYWY [Embed]

UK - Anarchy in the UK. Britain's Ukraine Endgame
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=gbi_be9HOx8
https://youtube.com/watch?v=gbi_be9HOx8 [Embed]

Europe - Stop the BLAME EUROPE Game to Make Peace in Ukraine
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=y_19DElXpF4
https://youtube.com/watch?v=y_19DElXpF4 [Embed]

Ukraine - Ukraine is TRAPPED in the ENDGAME of its Own War
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=lsy3FhsI7PM
https://youtube.com/watch?v=lsy3FhsI7PM [Embed]

Now that the Siversk front got into swing tubers started to talk about it, speculating with arrows all around. Said potatos often draw arrows through the Donetsk river from north to south, like if it's not even there - traced with blue in maprel.
I mean not impossible, but last time RuAF tried it they were clapped hard, I'm not sure they are keen repeating it. But maybe it's time, the Russians can judge to try it. Siversk is hard pressed and surely the last strike was coordinated and executed from there.
I think tho they'll just hug the curves of the river and help with artillery, mortar, drone whatever fire from that side.

>>54881
Jeff Rich's proposal for peace.
7-point for REAL PEACE
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=s-BlCqRzeT0
https://youtube.com/watch?v=s-BlCqRzeT0 [Embed]
He asks a lot.
I do think he is right in many things.
I like the way how he views the issue: 5 state war - which means the peace agreement should be done between all five. Each participant have to make separate agreements with Russia, and they have to terminate their own participation in the war. It's not forcing Ukraine to make peace, like how Trump seems to do it.
The major historical parallel/analogy he cites is the Peace of Westphalia, which ended the Thirty Years War, which had three main participants - Habsburg Dynasty and their various domains, France, and Sweden - and their numerous smaller allies.
Have to look it up really. I have serious holes in my knowledge about this. We learnt that the core of the conflict stood religion, and that our Transylvanian Duke made a separate peace with our King Ferdinand the III.

Watched this video by Vlad Vexler:
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=zylBiCCEoxM
https://youtube.com/watch?v=zylBiCCEoxM [Embed]
It's about Trump's 28 point peace plan. He finds the restriction of the size of the military a problem for it cuts into Ukraine's sovereignty.
All right, I get it. But if Ukraine joins EU, everything will be about compromising the state's sovereignty. Not one country in the EU, not Germany, neither France is sovereign.

Radio said that the Bondi Beach shooters were recruited and trained by ISIS... On the Philippines...

It's PICKY not RISKY.

>>54932
>mkv
Fuck me.

A week or two ago in his sitrep, Wyatt of DPA changed his sitreps a bit after he put forward a theory about how the war is fought how they capture ground.
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=vhocenrJeUY
https://youtube.com/watch?v=vhocenrJeUY [Embed]

He says they have bases in various settlements, where they can house X amount of soldiers, and they send them out to the trenches where they clash with the enemy as they try to hold/capture those. There is a range where it is effective to send the soldiers, and at one point it gets too dangerous due to enemy drones/mortar/artillery.
Russians try to pound these bases and suppress the traffic that is going between the bases and trenches. When the place gets sparse enough, they try to move in "on foot" and capture it.

They say Ukraine will hold presidential election. Preparing voting possibility for those who fled the country.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/66485

Breddy cool map to follow the war. Actually several maps by known mappers can select and compare each. I'm missing DPA from it,
https://ukraineviews.org/

Along with Jacques Baud and Xavier Moreau this half-negro Swiss lady was also sanctioned by the EU. She has a very interesting and quite unsettling story.
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=PXq89FryYzo
https://youtube.com/watch?v=PXq89FryYzo [Embed]
The Swiss bank she has account at froze her money in Swiss Francs, and just stole the rest which was in Euro...
She can't fly to Switzerland for the EU surrounds it. But it would be useless to be there since the whole country is run electronically, and large part of her income based on her online presence, and she would be just locked out of every services.
Swiss embassy did not help her out.
Unrelated US companies refusing to deal with her.
Google demonetized her channel.
She's on EU's list and bunch of other 3rd party companies are shutting her out.
The reason all this because she is against France's presence in Africa. She voices her opinion against Francafrique. For the EU this means she works for Russian interests and they cite alleged ties to Wagner (and Afriq which is considered a Wagner front) and destabilizing activities.
She was already pestered by France and Macron back in 2019, he made Ivory Coast to expel her (to Switzerland). Her current EU ban happened back in June.
https://sanctionslists.org/news/eu-imposes-sanctions-on-a-swiss-social-media-influencer/
I guess she and the others still can go to Russia. Then the EU could say:
>see we told you they were Russian agents

Russia often presents herself as a power that is against the colonialism the West still practices. It's a Soviet heritage ofc, the SU did the same. And they support those locals who also want to get rid of the remnants of their former oppressors and exploiters.
But how about Europeans (the colonial powers along with Brussels) approach the Africa question differently. Are they so afraid they couldn't compete on leveled field with others eyeing the continent (such as US, Russia, and China)?
I don't get it how the EU could behave this close minded. I see the same parallel with those Russians who don't want to live under Putin's regime and try to emigrate, but tarded EU politicians like Kaja Kallas wants to deny them the opportunity. They literally prove to these people that it is true what the Kremlin says about the Westerners hating them and about Russophobia.

And there is the issue that it's just the EU Council led by our dear Ursula who issues these sanctions. As if they were some kind of despots. No examination, no legal process, no hearing, no defense. They are the prosecutors, judges, executioners in one body.

Watched/listened WillyOAM's video with AMK Mapping and Alex of Historylegends. All in all, it's breddy gud.
Problems: not really a conversation, everyone said their piece and they hummed a bit and moved on to next topic where they said their piece and hummed a bit...
AMK feels out of place. I think his medium is "paper" (in written form) so probably not used to presenting his opinions verbally, so he doesn't seem collected enough. Felt the same in case the previous chat with Matt.

As I read Glantz's book about the Soviet operational art I heard some stuff in this video that's highly related, but have to give it a listen again.

Motivated by what I'm reading in there I might look up the Winter War, that is Finland vs Soviet Union (1939-40) for there seems to be some parallels.
The SU had a hard time there. They attacked with mobile units with tank formations but they got wrecked and had to change their approach, reorganize how they operated, rethink the use of forces. Essentially the reality of war, the available tools denied the mobile warfare. Just this war.
And then Finland got defeated had to give up territories. Right now the Ukraine war looks like this will be the outcome. But this is still in the future, so we'll see.

I think Russian defense ministry is now coping for Kupiansk by declaring captures at certain places.

>>54943
It is less important than South and Donbas fronts.
Also UAF moved a lot of troops to Kupiansk so RU army has made advances in other more strategically important areas

>>54949
There is the thing called "too early". Just because a place will fall anyway, it doesn't make it right to declare a place captured.
Plus you can never know when an announced place will gets uncaptured, before it really gets captured. See: Kupyansk.
>It is less important than South and Donbas fronts.
No. It is very important to push on all directions simultaneously with similar force. Advance on main directions can't be achieved without the rest. So the rest is just as important.
Plus. The original separatist regions beyond Dontesk and Lugansk were Odessa, Dnipro, and Kharkov in 2014.

>>54949
>>54952
In fact the fact that Khakrov was among the original regions that turned against the new regime in Kiev makes that direction strategically important.
On operational level (on the level of TVD) it might have the supporting direction status, but not on strategical.

>>54952
Well the South front is much more important, if they capture Zaporizhya they can basically destroy UA logistics.
Donbass is politically important (it is RU number one goal) plus it is the main stronghold of the East.
It happened many times during this war. UA army moves its troops -> makes some tactical advances -> and meanwhile loses other strategically important areas.

>Plus. The original separatist regions beyond Dontesk and Lugansk were Odessa, Dnipro, and Kharkov in 2014.
Yes, but (as for now) Russia didnt even include it in its constitution. Actually they are ready to withdraw troops from Kharkov region in exchange for Donbass.
And btw Odessa is even more important not only because it is a huge port city, but because it is historic Russian imperial city, built by Russian Empire and basically a symbol or Russian exploration of the South.

>>54954
>Well the South front is much more important
No. Just wrote it why.
>capture Zaporizhya
The city? Capturing it would be a nightmare. It is very hard to fight in urban environment, and it would destroy the city.
>they can basically destroy UA logistics.
They want Ukraine to send more and more crap to the front. They don't want to destroy Ukrainian logistics.
Russia is waging an attritional war. The point is to destroy the war material - the troops, the weapons, the equipment. They put strain on Ukraine. They want to tank the morale. Ground made is a byproduct of attrition.
Controlling, channeling the opposition logistics sure. But not destroying it.
In fact one point of attrition would be denying successes, because it is very destructive for morale to see nothing but failures. So Kupyansk was really a mistake on behalf of Russia.

Schrödinger's Russia
At the moment I see two cases of this, a long running, and a new "situational". There could be others.

1.
A. Russia is too weak to defeat Ukraine and couple billions more money and another round of sanctions finally will break her.
B. Russia is so strong it will attack NATO and in a week it will march into Paris

2.
A. Time works for Europe, Russia will be forced to her knees just a couple billions more money and another rounds of sanctions, the war surely will destroy her.
B. Russia doesn't want to make peace consciously sabotage the negotiations, and throws out peace offers because she wants to continue the war.

I see parts of this video on the youtubers' channels I follow.
The captured battalion HQ in Huliaipole. Town fell quick. It seems only territorial defence units were in the hood.

Not what I referred to here: >>54942, but couple of quotes David Glantz's Soviet Military Operational Art: In Pursuit of Deep Battle. Pages 100 and 101.
Ultimately the Red Army successfully met this second great challenge and triumphed, but only after years of attrition, frustration, and an agonizing process of military reeducation conducted during wartime. Throughout the war a new generation of commanders emerged, new equipment was developed and fielded, and military theories matured
For the sake of analysis the Soviets subdivide their "Great Patriotic War" into three distinct periods, each characterized by broad unifying themes reflecting Soviet fortunes in war and the state of military art.* The first period of war (June 1941 - November 1942) found the Soviets on the strategic defense punctuated by several Soviet attempts to undertake offensive operations on several important directions. The second period (December 1942 - December 1943) was one of transition from defensive operations to a general Soviet offensive designed to wrest the strategic initiative from the Germans. The third period (1944-1945) was a period of general Soviet offensives culminating in the achievement of total victory.

I see some parallels with the recent war on Ukraine. Perhaps because these are fairly generic terms. But.
It does seem the Russians coming out on top, after they changed the whole process how they wage the war. They are reeducating themselves. And the three stages also stands from the period counting from 2022 April, after they lost the initiative as the contracts of their troops expired and they have to mobilize. Ukraine was on the offensive but during the second period in 2023 they wrestled back the initiative, and now they are on a continuous offensive. And the Kursk intermezzo did not disrupt this offensive.

Venezuela is getting air/rocket striked.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/1/3/live-loud-noises-heard-in-venezuelas-capital-amid-us-tensions
Apparently Caracas got attacked.

I do believe US would do bombings instead of invasion. They have the force for that in the Caribbean but not for the latter.
I've seen a video where they discussed possibility and the terrain just sucks for an invasion.

So. Maduro is captured, Trump says, and he'll stand trial in the US.
Is this legal? No. Will anyone hold Trump responsible for this unlawful act? No.
How Michael Rossi said: might not makes right, but might certainly makes things happen.
I'm fairly sure all in SouthAm shat themselves. Keep quiet fell in line. Even those who say it's illegal openly there won't be any real change in relations with US. Perhaps change to lick Trump's fat ass more.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/1/3/explosions-heard-over-venezuelan-capital-caracas-amid-us-tensions

Wyatt of DPA did a livestream on the Venezuela happenings. He said he started at the moment as news started to pour in, and he followed the events.
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=9F0FAgY-0rE
https://youtube.com/watch?v=9F0FAgY-0rE [Embed]
I won't have the time to day to watch this.

>>54978
Still haven't watched this yet, but the recent summary:
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=eeLWDApsa_s
https://youtube.com/watch?v=eeLWDApsa_s [Embed]
He rightfully points out: they just extracted Maduro, removing him as the head of the country, but the rest of the Maduro administration and army is still in place. Why would that woman suddenly rise to power? Why would they do a "free" elections? I'm fairly sure there is a plan for the possibility that Maduro is gone, and there is a process or a candidate. Situation can turn volatile if the successor is not solid, or can't solidify his power, then infighting can take down the regime - perhaps with the help by a push on behalf of the US.

Perhaps Trump can find Maduro's replacement more agreeable.

There is an opinion that basically nothing will happen, Trump just used this whole thing for his personal image boost, and new Venezuela gov will just continiue Maduro old politics
any venezuela pros here?

>>54981
Only me here so I'm everything pro.
What you write is a possibility, what Wyatt said (link above) and what my thoughts on it certainly goes towards that direction.
Plus in foreign relations the US has a number of countries with regimes they consider "enemy" and Trump goes through the list of them, and does something showy about it.
The US handles their enemies by default with Containment policy. But there are a number of options, such as Engagement, Persuasion, Invasion, Bombing, Support Inside Opposition (guerillas, revolution), and such.
So Trump did something about China, Russia, Iran, Venezuela (there was something in Africa too, I don't remember from the top of my heda). Next might be North Korea, or goes back to Iran as he returns back to China and Russia as well. Tho the latter two are considerably more important than the rest.
Perhaps Trump is fine with Venezuela for the time being (for couple of months), they can put some pressure their with scaring them with military presence, he can focus on something else. Surely there will be a big show trial to fill the media until noone can eat more of that.

>>54981
There you go. Here's foreign relations exbert Michael Rossi, on Neutrality Studies this time:
https://yewtu.be/watch?v=wEKWDTgHdso
https://youtube.com/watch?v=wEKWDTgHdso [Embed]
Gonna give it a listen later.

I also think Maduro was given up by his own. I highly suspect some of his closest buddies got scared by the US force demo in the Caribbean and started to cooperate with them.
Not the first case in the history of US clients. This book I talk about here >>54224 (and many following posts in that thread) tells cases when US military force was mobilized against some unwanted dictator, they did a little bombing and the dictator's own thought better.
Basically they threat with invasion.
I might try to find the specific case.

Why couldnt Russia do the same?
Bribe the corrupt politicians, kidnap Zelinsky and isntall puppet regime upon the Ukraines?
Well, actually they did bribe the corrupt politians, but instead of doing their job they built mansions and literal train dining cars in their backyards

>>54985
here is a dining car in the backyard of Medvechuk.
He was prime Russian asset before the war, he was supposed to prepare everything for the SMO, bribe the military, prepare the public opinion etc. But he built a dining car instead

>>54984
>I also think Maduro was given up by his own

Yep, Venezuela actually had (still has) pretty powerful military and air defence. There was a traitor(s) 100%

>>54986
Also, it is quite funny that they have a family coat of arms, considering that they are all descendants of peasants.
t.descendant of peasants and proud

>>54985
Prior to the SMO Kremlin did bribe officials and officers alike. US payed more.

Selective diplomacy and selective liberalism.

>>54990
and they just took the money and did nothing.
For example, there is an opposition party, Opposition Platform — For Life, they just took the Kremlin money and did nothing, they are still in parliament and vote for every Zelinsky law

>>54959
Glantz gives interesting statistics while he presents the evolution of soviet warfare. He provides numbers on front width, length, depth, height, and even operation time as 4th dimension I guess. Force density and balance of forces is also on the menu.
Starting from page 99 he examines the "Great Patriotic War" chopped up into three portion:
1. the failure and reorganization (1941-42)
2. learning the new skills (1943)
3. refining the techniques (1944-45)
In each part he separately talks about Doctrine, Strategy, Operation, Tactics and the changes that happened. He gives organization tables of formations and units, plus map-diagram drawings of their operation.
I'll try to give the numbers here sometimes. Perhaps make a table in Excel libre office calc and screenshot it or something. It might be a problem that he doesn't give the numbers consistently, some of it contradictory, and also some circumstantial and not general.
For example states the density in case of #1 (1941-42) and #3 (1944-45) on tactical level, but not at #2 (1942-43).

>we're gonna monitor the situation
Good one.

So let me get this straight.
Last year, there was a big hype about the Nobel peace prize, for Trump wanted it so bad, and started to claim he want to get it. Everyone repeated it and half the world rejoiced he did not get it and half was angry about it. Actually barely anyone gave a shit, except the media and social media can make enough noise to give this perception.
Coincidentally that lady from Venezuela got it, because evil Maduro. I doubt anyone can remember any other prize winners from other fields (probably the professionals of each fields). Or do we even know who were the other candidates?
https://www.nobelpeaceprize.org/press/press-releases/nominations-for-the-nobel-peace-prize-2025
>The list of nominees for the Nobel Peace Prize is released 50 years after the prize is awarded, in accordance with the statutes of the Nobel Foundation.
Oh.
There are a number of leaked ones on Wikipedia. Not sure if it's a reliable list.

Anyway, the whole thing sounds like a psyop to lay the foundations for a Venezuelan intervention for the United States. If Bernd remembers the US needs a general international acceptance before she starts an overt intervention: >>54315 >>54317 . They need something that shows the pariah status of the target whom noone talks to. That gives a legal veneer for their actions.
They made people remember that the Maduro regime is anti-democratic, cheated on the election, that they are violating human rights. During the military buildup they also branded the country as narco-terrorist.
I do think Machado's Nobel victory - and the Trump hype was part of this, they used it to create an acceptance, a placidity.
I also think Trump talked about this with Putin, perhaps with India and China too, and bartered some kind of deal.
>We want Venezuela, we don't give the 'hawks to Zelensky
Or something like that.

>>54998
Is this some kind of anime?

Ah, it's a CS mod or something.

Syria is heating up again.
Govt forces clash with SDF.
Lots of Allahu Akbars again.

>>55003
Hello here are videos xDDD?

>>55005
*where

>>55007
Btw, last time they hated the shah and his kid, so thinking the Pahlevi will return is most likely a mistake. They are less popular than the ayatollah.

I think there is a bit of misunderstanding how the US operates.
People see a strike on Venezuela and extrapolate what country next, countries the US might have some disagreement, like Brazil.
The US has a number of enemies. An enemy they define as a non-client regime that deliberately chooses to oppose the US in key issues (both in their domestic and foreign policies).
There are the big ones, like Tschainuh and Russia. And some smaller one like Iran, North Korea, Venezuela. And the Arch Nemesis: Cuba. There might be others in Africa, I mentioned previously I need to look this up.

Brazil is still a client state. Sure they have some disagreement with the Trump administration, but their situation is far from Venezuela. I think the same went for Hungary under the Biden admin, when our govt. vocally disagreed with Washington on a number of issues such as Ukraine. However prior to that it not felt that we are a client of the USA, today it feels very much so. And in those years here there were people - fanboys of the opposition whoever was the opposition at the time - who hoped the US will intervene here somehow, like support a color-type of revolution and overthrow the Orbán govt. They never did. One could suggest Orbán overthrew the US govt. and installed his puppet, Trump...:^)

Venezuela seems like a bit of outlier compared to the rest of the enemies. The kidnapping of Maduro sounds more like "jettisoning the president" type of client maintenance intervention described here: >>54270 than anything they do in case of hostile interventions. It's very much comparable to the case of Panama/Noriega in 1990 (January 3rd). And the voices following this situation suggest that even if the following government won't be from the opposition, so they keep the current gang of oligarchs, they will very much so cooperate with the US in the fashion of a client.

The US creates clients with the method called "switching" noted here: >>54236 and the example mentioned there is the overthrow of Mosaddegh in Iran in 1953, by the CIA and the help of the UK.
In Venezuela seemingly there wasn't a coup. But what if there were cooperating factions within the regime to remove Maduro, essentially they couped him and helped the US to extract him. Removing a symbol of resistance towards the US, not they can change their policies working with the US instead.

Iran.
There are many problems for the current regime.
It's a multi-ethnic country with Persians only at ~51% majority. Islamic fanaticism was eroded by modernism. Most people is fed up with the Muslim regime. Many people with differing ideas, depending on social background and education too. They seem to be ripe for divide et impera.
However whoever comes to power will face the same problem. The shah (his son actually) is hated the same like the Islamic Revolution. And anyone else is just too unknown and smalltimer to gain majority support.
I think if the current regime is toppled and the new one is supported by USA and Israel, there is a great chance that this puppet regime will do massacres and oppression.
Otherwise the country might fall into chaos, or rather anarchy, some parts may even secede. More instability in the region.

Trump:
>they killed people which is wrong so we'll kill people which is right

>>55012
Meanwhile next door, in Syria, the govt is killing people based on their ethnicity, people who had been supported by the US itself, Trump never blinks an eye.

>>55013
Makes me wonder. Yes I'm wonder. Will they offer the Kurds a free Kurdistan from Iran if they take up arms against the Ayatollah?
>well dear Kurds, this thing doesn't work out in Syria but maybe we can offer you somethin

>>55011
>>55014
Matt aired a good video about Iran. I saw picrel screenshotted there.
>Freedom to peak, to gather, to travel
>into the EU
>because we need more Shias and Sunnis killing each other on the streets of Paris
Kneeway.
First thing first.
I think while there is a strong anti-establishment feeling in most of the population, the events are helped from the outside, by USA and Israel. I also think Israel has a strong presence - the system in Iran is corrupt (Israel has a lot to do with this too), and last years bombing campaign was also preceded by working on the human foundation. As noted before >>55007 the USA has plans on creating an upheaval in Iran for a long time.
The US and Israel are rocking the boat, because they know that last years glorious bombing did only postpone the development of nuclear capabilities I won't write bomb because we don't know if they wanted to make a bomb. They got some time, but they have to do something about it. The quoted book also stresses this matter.
I do believe Iran would go through a change that dissolve the Islamic Revolution and it's grip on the country if left alone. Younger generations who will inherit the country, they aren't so enthusiastic about it. But this would be a long process.
I also think that Iranian population has little fondness towards the US and Israel, and that the following regimes would push for nuclear capabilities too bomb? we don't know.
Neighbours also aren't fond of Iran, and they are wary if Iran seeks nuclear weaponry. But I'm not sure they'd want a failed state Iran.
And then the question of China and oil left. Could China exploit the situation more or less? They are the main buyer of Iranian oil, and the Iranian govt is depending more and more on them.
Also worth weigh: each adventure for the US costs money.

Glantz and the Soviet art of war again.
He goes in chronological order to review what the Soviet thought and wrote about the war. During the Cold War they obviously gave a lot of thought about nuclear war.
First they maintained their views on warfare how they experienced it in their Great Patriotic War (great ground force maneuvers). Then from the '60s effected by nuclear weapons they dropped all this and claimed that the next war will be nuclear and these weapons will decide everything. But as they observed the events around and how the world lived in the shadow of MAD, they believed there is a decisive place for conventional weapons still, and in the '80s they formulated the thought of war in a "nuclear-scared" environment where everyone abstain from the use of nukes out of fear. Still they cautiously stated if such war is fought and NATO gets beaten they might resort to their use.
They realized couple of things.
The key to victory is offensive just as ever.
To achieve success they need to achieve surprise first. Utmost surprise.
They preferred armoured units for their protection against radiation.
The units have to be dispersed, no concentrated attacks for just one nuke and the whole group can be taken out.
No echelon buildup. The use of second echelon/reserves is circumstantial. First echelon has to be beefed to deliver a good punch.
Lightning fast attacks along the whole front, but no springboards right on the front but from further back.
Deep penetration of enemy lines fast, often hundreds of kilometers. Have to disable nuclear capabilities.
Air assaults (conventional and nuclear if need be), combined with airmobile unit drops.
The gaps between the dispersed attacking ground units can be held by fire (conventional and nuclear if need be).

It does remind me of the initial phase of the war on Ukraine.

picrel is front operations against unprepared defense
CAA = Combined Arms Army
TA = Tank Army
TD = Tank Division (in the reserves, not how small it is)
ABN DIV = Airborne Division

Check this quote
These concepts were developed in the 1970s and early 1980s when tactical nuclear weapons posed the greatest potential threat on the battlefield. In the mid-1980s the Soviets have recognized the growing threat of high precision weaponry and other high technological weapons systems. Their initial response has been to accentuate those trends of the 1970s by stressing heavier single echelons, more rapid tactical and operational maneuver, and greater tactical flexibility by small units. One author has noted that, although basic offensive principles still apply, greater premium would have to be placed on the importance of surprise actions, maneuver of subunits and fires, sharp and continuous cooperation, skill in concealing from the enemy one's intentions, and firm continuous command and control.50 Another has added "the revived capabilities of the battalion, and the increased significance of independent operations of subunits, naturally places great demands on the commander."51 These and similar assertions indicate an increased Soviet concern for tailoring more carefully at the battalion and regimental level and a concomitant concern for more initiative and flexibility on the part of their commanders at these levels.

Now this one. This is interesting for a hypothetical war against NATO.
Based upon these conclusions, in the event of war the Soviets would seek to achieve surprise by using deception to a maximum extent while politically trying to undermine the unity and resolve of the coalition itself. They would attempt to preempt or disrupt strategic (theater) defenses and preempt the use or limit the effectiveness of enemy nuclear weapons and precision-guided munitions (PGMs) by launching a massive ground offensive, by emphasizing early neutralization of enemy nuclear delivery means, and by attacking, using operational and tactical techniques designed to disrupt enemy command and control and produce paralysis and confusion in enemy ranks. A clear Soviet focus would be to force the capitulation of one or more of the weaker members of the enemy coalition. To accomplish these ambitious aims the Soviets must keep forward-area forces in a high state of readiness, furnished with first-rate equipment. Combat forces must be backed up by a logistical capability sufficient to sustain operations for the duration of the initial strategic and - because the potential for protracted operations is recognized — until the defense industrial sector is fully mobilized and producing key materiel and equipment (i.e., 60-90 days). The Soviets must achieve parity or superiority in the strategic and tactical nuclear realm, and because of the necessity to effect speed and surprise, they must abandon large-scale advanced mobilization and reinforcement of forward area forces prior to war. Forward area forces must be capable of attacking on short notice with only limited redeployment and regrouping. Maximum use of cover and deception is essential, and forces must be structured for and capable of conducting high speed deep operations. The Soviets feel they have achieved the bulk of these prerequisites.

There are some details.
>force the capitulation of one or more of the weaker members of the enemy coalition.
Sounds like the Baltics today.
>until the defense industrial sector is fully mobilized and producing key materiel and equipment
I think Russia's industry now already at this level - at least suitable for the war ongoing. But further on?
And this is the thing. After hearing Western officials that Russia will attack NATO and can march into Paris... does current year Russia sounds like that would be capable to do what Soviet theoreticians drew up?
Especially current year's technological environment? There is a reason why they are slogging and using micro-unit tactics, attack columns just aren't suitable.

Lots of good details in this book >>54959. Worth a read. Supplements Baud's book as well.