/kc/ - Syria Thread - Salty Stoltenberg edition

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Syria Thread - Salty Stoltenberg edition Bernd

05/25/2023 (Thu) 08:51 [Preview] No. 50296

Previous threda: >>48765

A new thread, a new offensive.

In Sudan fights continue, it seems largely thanks to the Rapid Support Forces cease-fire violations. Millions of people is getting displaced, guess where will they end up? Now that the situation is Syria starts to get normalized and people from refugee camps can return. I wonder on who's payroll on RSF is.

In Syria the situation is much the same. Except now Israel and the Hezbollah fights over the Palestinians. The first one don't need those people, just the land under their feet, the second one just wants to kill Jews.

On the Ukraine the AFU's counteroffensive is roaring. I cannot hear it due to the liveuamap only showing Russian action. But at least the Deepstate map shows nothing as well. How will they be able to tell people that this much promised offensive is on? Well I saw one article writing about the "tactical encirclement of Bakhmut, now the Russians are in trouble". Anywhere where the front is not perfectly straight one can claim there is an encirclement, but okay. Whatabout Avdiivka?
Here's a cool article from Reuters contemplating about the capture of Bakhmut.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/how-important-is-claimed-capture-by-russias-wagner-group-ukraines-bakhmut-2023-05-20/
Don't worry they establish right at the beginning U.S. Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin and NATO alliance head Jens Stoltenberg, and all the western experts say it's nothingburger. And they are right in a way, the high ground at Chasiv Yar and the ridge which separates Bakhmut from the chain of towns with Kramatorsk and Sloviansk are more important. But since god knows how many Ukrainian fighters were torn into pieces (I guesstimate it between 25K and 100K, maybe I'll make a post about how I reached this) Bakhmut was a very important battle.

Bernd

05/25/2023 (Thu) 20:54 [Preview] No.50298 del

Kárpáthír is a Hungarian language newspaper from Kárpátalja. They usually have more first hand news than Hungarian papers in Hungary, who take articles from them.
This one reports about a PoW exchange, soldiers fought at Bakhmut. Notable snippets:
- 106 Ukrainian soldiers were freed.
- The article uses the term honvéd = home-defender/patriot for the private ranked soldiers like it is used in the Hungarian Defence Forces.
- 68 of them were recorded as Missing in Action.
- oldest is 58, youngest is 21
- no news on how many Russians were given.
https://karpathir.com/2023/05/25/fogolycsere-tortent-bahmutnal/

Bernd

05/26/2023 (Fri) 18:51 [Preview] No.50300 del

>>50296
>Well I saw one article writing about the "tactical encirclement of Bakhmut, now the Russians are in trouble".
Clearly both the journalist and the intended readers never look at frontline maps on their own. It bears noting that months before they finished the battle, the Russians got very close to Khromove and Ivanivske and placed the supply roads under fire control, many commented that it was getting encircled. And yet the city's defenders didn't collapse from a lack of supplies and reinforcements, presumably they drove through the dirt roads in the middle. Where there's a will, there's a way.

This imminent Ukrainian offensive (just as Russian victory in Bakhmut, which was "imminent" for months) lost a big opportunity when the battle ended. They could've attacked elsewhere while Wagner and other good Russian units were tied up in the city and unable to respond. They had plenty of time, too. Why didn't this happen? Presumably Ukrainian formations earmarked for the offensive were rotated into "irrelevant" Bakhmut. It was the Russians who attacked elsewhere (Vuhledar), though it ended in disaster. This is one of my two "success" metrics for Bakhmut and it's in favor of the Russians, the other metric is attrition, for which there are wildly different interpretations.

>Don't worry they establish right at the beginning U.S. Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin and NATO alliance head Jens Stoltenberg, and all the western experts say it's nothingburger. And they are right in a way, the high ground at Chasiv Yar and the ridge which separates Bakhmut from the chain of towns with Kramatorsk and Sloviansk are more important. But since god knows how many Ukrainian fighters were torn into pieces (I guesstimate it between 25K and 100K, maybe I'll make a post about how I reached this) Bakhmut was a very important battle.
Back in December, Zelensky told the American Congress that Bakhmut is Ukraine's "stronghold in the east" and the fight "will change the trajectory of our war". So the city is relevant when it can generate more weapons deliveries and irrelevant when it doesn't anymore.
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/12/22/politics/zelensky-congress-address-transcript/index.html

Bernd

05/27/2023 (Sat) 09:15 [Preview] No.50301 del

>>50300
Russia is tacticly encriclementing Ukriane.
>which was "imminent" for months
Due to mud there is no real offensives in spring on the South Russian steppes. It had to be imminent for the reasons you wrote to drum up more deliveries. And people get disinterested if they don't hear something exciting constantly.
>irrelevant when it doesn't anymore.
Well relevance is temporal either way. Many irrelevant places in history was made relevant for the time of a battle. Not everything can be fought at Stalingrad.

Bernd

05/27/2023 (Sat) 15:14 [Preview] No.50303 del

Prigozhin said something interesting about the figures of the battle of Bakhmut.

He says he recruited 50,000 convicts of which 20% died, so 10k, and that roughly that number of contract PMCs died as well, so 20k all up. He then says a further 20% were wounded(which he states means unable to perform combat duties for 3 months or more). So another 20k or less, considering that he didn't state how many contract PMCs there were but I doubt there were more than there were convicts.

So 20,000 dead and around 20,000 wounded. Though this does not account for Russian army losses but they didn't do the brunt of the fighting there.

Against this he says the Ukrainians lost 50,000 dead and around 50,000-70,000 wounded.

It's hard to know what to make of this, admitting 20,000 dead does seem pretty honest though, I think that the Wagner casualty figures are accurate at least.

Bernd

05/27/2023 (Sat) 17:43 [Preview] No.50304 del

Ukraine wants 450 Guarani APCs from Iveco's Brazilian factory. For purely humanitarian reasons, as an armored ambulance for evacuating civilians and wounded fighters. 450 armored ambulances. Back in September they wanted an equivalent number of regularly armed personnel carriers to carry personnel.

This deal is unlikely to be approved because Lula has upheld Bolsonaro's refusal to sell any kind of weapons to Ukraine. Now there's an element of emotional blackmail:
>If there is a rejection this time, Brazil may compromise its image in the eyes of the international community, since it is not a sale of military equipment that is in question.

Bernd

05/27/2023 (Sat) 18:01 [Preview] No.50305 del

>>50303
I dunno about Prigo. He talks lotta bs. Probably he knows it well that everything what he says will be printed, so he just throws out whatever comes to his mind.

The battle went on for about 9 months. I'm not sure about the start, Wikipee says 2022 August 1st, the first screenshots of the livemap I made are from 3rd and 7th, and the situation is picrel, and just at Sept. ~15th when they reached the outskirt of Bakhmut (picrel #3). On average the minimum that both side lost is 100/day. One question is this "loss" includes KIA, MIA, WIA, POW?
Here is Mediazona again:
https://en.zona.media/article/2022/05/11/casualties_eng
They count deaths which can be verified from various sources. According to this, PMCs lost ~1500 and recruited prisoners ~4000 since the start of the war. Lost as dead. So even if they can't verify half, that is only 3000+8000. Way below what Prigo says. And way way below what Western "experts" say.

Bernd

05/27/2023 (Sat) 18:13 [Preview] No.50306 del

>>50304
They'll get ambulance F-16s and they'll get over it.

Bernd

05/27/2023 (Sat) 19:02 [Preview] No.50307 del

Here are some youtube channel to look into:
Defense Asia Politics:
https://yewtu.be/channel/UChF7fmbeF805ceGO0EfpjUA
https://yewtu.be/channel/UCgGHiivhFq7M_1MLemh-cjg
Weeb Union:
https://yewtu.be/channel/UCy-p2WfI1exR0yrmNFRfcag
NWE War Reports:
https://yewtu.be/channel/UC0EnYUt8dJUYcDgHUFG8vYA
As far as I know they are skeptical towards the claims of Western mainstream media.

Denys Davydov:
https://yewtu.be/channel/UCpr-NNORb2UQYDD3k-w-OFg
I think I linked a video of his related to the broken Leopard 2. He is pro-Ukrainian. I assume he himself is Ukrainian.

Now that post a list I should include these two as well:
HistoryLegends:
https://yewtu.be/channel/UCHqqf2BwNM4Oih-a_ikbWww
WillyOAM:
https://yewtu.be/channel/UC0PAiiu0jZWN83qXQRDq9xA

Bernd

05/29/2023 (Mon) 17:51 [Preview] No.50309 del

>>50307
So. My first impressions:
- DPA (uh i switched up two words): hard to listen (especially Slavic place names), he has wider range of topics on his main channel;
- WU: kinda shallow, but perhaps it's just the lack of hapenings and info these days;
- NWE: not bad.
One of these - sadly don't remember which, I dont care that much to look up - said: all these fucking maps, it would be nice if Ukrainians wouldn't call their own attacks as Russian attack (referring to all the red assault signs on the map). Heh.
- DD: he is very much Ukrainian to the point where he is willing to say outright lies like Hungary does not give humanitarian aid either - which makes me think what untruth are also told. This doesn't sit well with me. On the plus side he does make good points sometimes, and is quick to call out the other side's bs. He is motivated. One more good thing, since it's his mother tongue he reads and translates fluently everything right from any cyrillic - other channels struggle kek.

Bernd

05/29/2023 (Mon) 17:53 [Preview] No.50310 del

>>50309
Ah I found it in recent video, Defense Politics Asia said: the Ukro def ministry calls their own offensives Russian offensives.

Bernd

05/29/2023 (Mon) 20:07 [Preview] No.50311 del

Tensions rising in Kosovo. 20 Hungarian "peacekeepers" got hurt when beating protesters.

Bernd

05/30/2023 (Tue) 15:02 [Preview] No.50315 del

>>50305
That's not that different, Prigo said 10,000 convicts, so that would only be 2k more. The 3,000 PMCs is a lot less but then Mediazon has a category called N/A which lists 5,000 killed, maybe PMCs make up a large amount of that.

It is interesting that convicts make up 17% of Russian casualties now. More than any other group apart from N/A.

Bernd

05/30/2023 (Tue) 15:09 [Preview] No.50316 del

The Ukrainians launched several drones at Moscow(I have heard 10), most were shot down but they damaged two residential buildings.

Like the ground raid done not long ago nothing was achieved. But, they both could be probing attacks designed to gauge Russian defences.
Though I think that whatever the case it's pretty silly. Ukraine should not give the Russians a reason to feel threatened or a reason to feel that they need to push the war further than they otherwise would. They should focus on making the war as costly as possible on the battlefield.

Bernd

05/30/2023 (Tue) 16:23 [Preview] No.50317 del

>>50316
There was a previous "drone" attack which were called a false flag operation. One of the reason that was cited, that this kinda provocation only good for Moscow.

Bernd

05/30/2023 (Tue) 18:23 [Preview] No.50318 del

The difference between Russia and Western Europe:
- In Russia, the top politicians own the large economic factors so they steer the country they can make the most profit.
- In WEurope, the large economic factors own the top politicians so they steer the country they can make the most profit.

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