Bernd
11/07/2026 (Sat) 16:48
[Preview]
No.55669
del
Let's compare these three places. This is how things stand according to DeepState map by the Ukrainian MoD. From our viewpoint now it matters little how it really is, but I think in relation to Mykolaivka it's fairly accurate, at Orikhiv the Russians have more but their offensive is halted and they were pushed back so whatever, and at Lyman (at Zelena Dolyna) it is hard to tell. That no "greyzone" is fairly suspicious, everywhere else the DS map applies it heavily, but now at that point it's either recapture or firm Russian control - of empty lands which makes no sense.
Why it does not?
Because to hold empty lands one need a center where troops, weapons, and supplies can be piled up, and from only these hubs power can be exerted around. This is why the war consists of chains of sieges, surround a hub, then capture the hub. It's like the natural flow of things.
Reminds me of medieval when they could rule the surrounding lands from castle. In fact it might remind me early modernity even more, the Lousi XIV - Vauban era when the French army was very strong yet they couldn't launch campaigns only in the range of several dozen kms deep, for the logistics that centered around the forts only allowed this.
Anyway.
RUaF is trying to capture Orikhiv for that they need to have the surrounding villages first to be able to build up small hubs, creating a cauldron. Then they can bombard the reinforcement coming in from the "fourth side" while putting pressure on the fort from the inside, left, centre, right, until they push in and capture the town from street to street.
The larger the fort the more force can be concentrated there and harder to capture the area.
And this is what missing from the region of Zelena Dolyna. There was no place for the Russians to stuff soldiers and drones with. There were towns on the bulge's perimeter, and that's it.
Now check Mykolaivka.
The RUaF Have to surround it somehow. However to the north is the Lyman front with punishing terrain -forests - and the river. That covers the town well, unlikely it will get captured by them any time soon. So they have to try from the south. There are minor villages there, in fact, only one village, and another bit further away to the south west. Then just open fields. It's not a place where a force can be pushed into and kept there, especially since it can be attacked from such strong points as Sloviansk. It would be like creating another bulge like the north of here, except even weaker. So I think Mykolaivka is quite a nut to crack.